Article Quality Assessment - V2
library(RSQLite)
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(stringr)
checkDuplicate = function(rawArticle, dataSource){
sub =
rawArticle %>%
subset(., source == dataSource)
duplicateCount =
sub %>%
group_by(title) %>%
summarise(count = n()) %>%
arrange(., desc(count))
cat("Data source: ", dataSource, "\n")
cat("Total number of entry: ", NROW(sub), "\n")
cat("Unique Titles: ", length(unique(sub$title)), "\n")
cat("Most duplicated title is: '", unlist(duplicateCount[1, "title"]), "'\n", sep = "")
cat("Duplicate count summary:\n")
print(summary(duplicateCount$count))
cat("\n")
}
getDuplicated = function(rawArticle, dataSource, n = 1){
sub =
rawArticle %>%
subset(., source == dataSource)
duplicateCount =
sub %>%
group_by(title) %>%
summarise(count = n()) %>%
arrange(., desc(count))
sub %>%
subset(., title == unlist(duplicateCount[n, "title"]))
}dataDir = Sys.getenv("DATA_DIR")
dbName = "/the_reading_machine.db"
fullDbPath = paste0(dataDir, dbName)
con <- dbConnect(drv=SQLite(), dbname=fullDbPath)
statement <- paste0('SELECT * FROM RawArticle')
rawArticles <-
dbGetQuery(con, statement) %>%
mutate(date = as.Date(date)) %>%
filter(date>=as.Date('1990-01-01'))
#table(rawArticles$source, rawArticles$date < '1990-01-01')There are a few observations we can make in the following graph. First of all Noggers has a very early article with a wrong date. The assumption around the date format in the beginning of the article is, as it seems, correct, except from the first article whose link seems to suggest a probable typo in the article date.
rawArticles[rawArticles$source=='noggers', ] %>% arrange(date) %>%
mutate(incipit=substr(article, 1, 17)) %>% select(., c(link, date, incipit)) %>% head(n=5)## link
## 1 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/bradburywatch.html
## 2 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/muppets.html
## 3 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/lets-have-whip-round.html
## 4 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/early-call-on-cbot.html
## 5 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/usda-export-sales.html
## date incipit
## 1 2001-01-12 12/01/01 -- What
## 2 2010-10-07 07/10/10 -- Inco
## 3 2010-10-07 07/10/10 -- The
## 4 2010-10-07 07/10/10 -- The
## 5 2010-10-07 07/10/10 -- TheSecondly, We can see that the number of articles from Euractiv has the best coverage and volume, while the other sources start covering in 2010.
aggregatedCount =
rawArticles %>%
group_by(date, source) %>%
summarise(count = n())
ggplot(data = aggregatedCount, aes(x = date, y = count)) +
geom_line() +
facet_wrap(~source)
If we look on the log scale, the number of Bloomberg article also increased considerably in 2016 which also happened to be the latest year. In contrast, both Euractiv and Agrimoney increase either steadily or remained constant. Noggers seems to slowly decrease over time.
ggplot(data = aggregatedCount, aes(x = date, y = count)) +
geom_line() +
facet_wrap(~source) +
scale_y_log10() +
geom_smooth()
Duplicates
One of the issues identified earlier in the project was the duplication of the articles. Below is a small summary of the duplication for each data source.
for(i in unique(rawArticles$source)){
checkDuplicate(rawArticles, i)
}## Data source: noggers
## Total number of entry: 5061
## Unique Titles: 3038
## Most duplicated title is: 'EU Rapemeal Prices'
## Duplicate count summary:
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.666 1.000 411.000
##
## Data source: worldgrain
## Total number of entry: 16803
## Unique Titles: 8276
## Most duplicated title is: '
## Drought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain
## '
## Duplicate count summary:
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.03 2.00 11.00
##
## Data source: euractiv
## Total number of entry: 38338
## Unique Titles: 38049
## Most duplicated title is: '‘That bus has gone’: EU sees no Brexit U-turn now – EURACTIV.com'
## Duplicate count summary:
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 3.000
##
## Data source: agrimoney
## Total number of entry: 10111
## Unique Titles: 10072
## Most duplicated title is: 'Agricultural Commodities - Farm commodities better bet than gold for 2010'
## Duplicate count summary:
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 2.000The reason for each source differs and require different solution for each problem.
Noggers
Duplicates on Niggers seem to be due to articles split between different pages. Rape seed prices for instance
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "noggers", n = 1) %>%
select(., c(link, title, article))## link
## 479 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapeseed-prices.html
## 485 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_09.html
## 498 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 505 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 512 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 516 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 539 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 561 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 564 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 570 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 579 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_17.html
## 586 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 595 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_31.html
## 603 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 613 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_02.html
## 619 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_03.html
## 627 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_24.html
## 634 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 639 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_26.html
## 643 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_27.html
## 662 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 665 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_19.html
## 682 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 690 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 709 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_13.html
## 715 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 723 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 727 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 735 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 741 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_06.html
## 749 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 762 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 768 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_30.html
## 780 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 783 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 799 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_13.html
## 806 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 827 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 834 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_06.html
## 844 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 846 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 855 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices_09.html
## 861 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 868 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_30.html
## 872 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 899 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_22.html
## 905 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_23.html
## 909 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_24.html
## 921 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 931 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 939 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/161110-latest-guide-prices-for-eu.html
## 958 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 963 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_19.html
## 974 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 987 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 997 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 1011 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1024 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 1030 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 1042 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 1059 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 1069 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 1096 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 1106 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_22.html
## 1112 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 1171 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 1227 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/10/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1257 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices_26.html
## 1273 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices_19.html
## 1278 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 1319 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1326 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 1331 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 1379 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 1404 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 1425 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1436 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/eu-rapemeal-prices_03.html
## 1442 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/08/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 1501 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 1516 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 1536 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1543 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_06.html
## 1548 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 1553 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 1569 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 1601 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 1611 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 1617 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_17.html
## 1626 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 1629 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_19.html
## 1640 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_09.html
## 1647 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 1656 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 1658 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_12.html
## 1691 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 1730 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_31.html
## 1737 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1744 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/10/eu-rapemeal-prices_31.html
## 1748 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_03.html
## 1753 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_24.html
## 1756 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_23.html
## 1763 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 1773 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_26.html
## 1779 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_27.html
## 1784 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1797 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 1803 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 1836 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_26.html
## 1845 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_27.html
## 1849 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 1860 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 1873 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 1882 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 1883 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 1893 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 1902 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 1904 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_06.html
## 1926 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 1938 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_30.html
## 1943 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_31.html
## 1945 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/11/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1951 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 1959 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 2097 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2102 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 2107 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 2114 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 2118 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_26.html
## 2121 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_27.html
## 2127 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 2142 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 2150 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 2155 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_22.html
## 2158 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 2187 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2193 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/06/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 2201 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 2207 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_30.html
## 2221 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 2226 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_22.html
## 2236 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_24.html
## 2239 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_25.html
## 2240 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_23.html
## 2242 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/140512-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2247 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 2258 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 2263 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 2271 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_09.html
## 2277 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 2286 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2288 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 2294 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/300412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2302 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2308 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_03.html
## 2315 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eu-rapemeal-prices_04.html
## 2318 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/230412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2321 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/230412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are_24.html
## 2328 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/250412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2331 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/260412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2336 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_27.html
## 2342 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 2348 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_17.html
## 2350 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_18.html
## 2362 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 2368 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_10.html
## 2375 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_11.html
## 2383 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_12.html
## 2385 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_13.html
## 2390 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2395 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/eu-rapemeal-prices_03.html
## 2400 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/040412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2405 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/050412-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2421 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 2426 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_29.html
## 2432 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_30.html
## 2441 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_19.html
## 2446 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 2447 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 2453 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_21.html
## 2458 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/220312-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2460 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_12.html
## 2463 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_23.html
## 2472 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_13.html
## 2479 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_14.html
## 2486 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_15.html
## 2489 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_16.html
## 2493 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_05.html
## 2499 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_06.html
## 2508 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_07.html
## 2509 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_08.html
## 2516 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices_09.html
## 2522 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_28.html
## 2529 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/290212-rapemeal-prices-on-continent-are.html
## 2540 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/eu-rapemeal-prices.html
## 2543 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_20.html
## 2554 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_22.html
## 2559 nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/eu-rapemeal-prices_23.html
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## article
## 479 08/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 -6.00 220.00 -2.00 220.00 -1.00 186.00 -1.00 190.00 -1.00 192.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 485 09/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 unch 218.00 -2.00 216.00 -4.00 185.00 -1.00 189.00 -1.00 191.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 498 10/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 219.00 +1.00 219.00 +1.00 217.00 +1.00 186.00 +1.00 192.00 +3.00 194.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 505 11/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 217.00 -2.00 217.00 -2.00 216.00 -1.00 186.00 unch 191.00 -1.00 193.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 512 28/02/11 -- Rapemeal prices are up today following Friday's strong gains in Chicago. Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 195.00 +3.00 196.00 +5.00 184.00 +7.00 187.00 +5.00 188.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 516 01/03/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 192.00 -3.00 192.00 -4.00 179.00 -5.00 184.00 -3.00 185.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 539 21/02/11 -- Rapemeal prices are extending recent declines today. Rapeseed prices are also down EUR4-5/tonne today, front month May is down almost EUR50/tonne from its Jan 12 high. Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 202.00 -1.00 202.00 -1.00 199.00 -4.00 182.00 -4.00 188.00 -2.00 189.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 561 14/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 +1.00 217.00 unch 215.00 -1.00 186.00 unch 192.00 +1.00 193.00 unch 2008 |
## 564 15/02/11 -- Rapemeal prices have fallen away sharply in recent days, in line with declines on the seed market. Front month Paris rapeseed futures are down by more than EUR50/tonne in less than a month. The UK ex farm market has fallen GBP12/tonne in the past two days, according to my chums at Dalmark. Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 213.00 -5.00 212.00 -5.00 208.00 -7.00 184.00 -2.00 189.00 -3.00 191.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 570 16/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 206.00 -7.00 205.00 -7.00 204.00 -4.00 180.00 -4.00 186.00 -3.00 188.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 579 17/02/11 -- Rapemeal prices have arrested their recent steep decline following seed prices sharply lower. Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 205.00 -1.00 205.00 unch 204.00 unch 181.00 +1.00 186.00 unch 188.00 unch 2008 |
## 586 18/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 203.00 -2.00 203.00 -2.00 203.00 -1.00 186.00 +5.00 190.00 +4.00 192.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 595 31/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 229.00 unch 228.00 -1.00 226.00 -2.00 190.00 unch 194.00 -1.00 199.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 603 01/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 228.00 -1.00 228.00 unch 226.00 unch 189.00 -1.00 194.00 unch 196.00 -0.50 2008 |
## 613 02/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 227.00 -1.00 224.00 -2.00 189.00 unch 193.00 -1.00 195.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 619 03/02/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 226.00 unch 226.00 -1.00 224.00 unch 189.00 unch 193.00 unch 195.00 unch 2008 |
## 627 24/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 234.00 unch 234.00 +1.00 232.00 +2.00 193.00 +1.00 197.00 unch 199.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 634 25/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 233.00 -1.00 233.00 -1.00 230.00 -2.00 192.00 -1.00 196.00 -1.00 198.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 639 26/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 229.00 -4.00 227.00 -3.00 188.00 -4.00 193.00 -3.00 195.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 643 27/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 229.00 n/a 229.00 unch 228.00 +1.00 190.00 +1.00 195.00 +2.00 197.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 662 18/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 233.00 +1.00 233.00 -1.00 233.00 unch 190.00 -2.00 195.00 unch 196.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 665 19/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 233.00 unch 233.00 unch 231.00 -2.00 189.00 -1.00 195.00 unch 197.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 682 10/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 227.00 -1.00 229.00 -1.00 229.00 unch 188.00 +1.00 191.00 -1.00 193.00 unch 2008 |
## 690 11/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 230.00 +3.00 231.00 +2.00 230.00 +1.00 188.00 unch 191.00 unch 193.00 unch 2008 |
## 709 13/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 239.00 +9.00 240.00 +9.00 239.00 +9.00 195.00 +8.00 199.00 +8.00 200.00 +7.00 2008 |
## 715 14/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 235.00 -5.00 234.00 -5.00 192.00 -3.00 197.00 -2.00 198.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 723 03/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 234.00 +4.00 234.00 +5.00 234.00 +5.00 190.00 +2.00 195.00 +3.00 196.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 727 04/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 230.00 -4.00 230.00 -4.00 230.00 -4.00 189.00 -1.00 193.00 -2.00 195.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 735 05/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 230.00 unch 230.00 unch 229.00 -1.00 188.00 -1.00 192.00 -1.00 194.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 741 06/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 228.00 -2.00 230.00 unch 229.00 unch 189.00 +1.00 194.00 +2.00 195.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 749 07/01/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 228.00 unch 230.00 unch 229.00 unch 187.00 -2.00 192.00 -2.00 193.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 762 29/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 230.00 n/a 229.00 n/a 229.00 n/a 188.00 n/a 192.00 n/a 193.00 n/a 2008 |
## 768 30/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 230.00 unch 229.00 unch 229.00 unch 188.00 unch 192.00 unch 193.00 unch 2008 |
## 780 20/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 219.00 +2.00 219.00 +2.00 219.00 +2.00 218.00 +1.00 186.00 +3.00 188.00 unch 189.00 unch 2008 |
## 783 21/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: unq n/a 219.00 unch 219.00 unch 218.00 unch 182.00 -4.00 188.00 unch 189.00 unch 2008 |
## 799 13/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 216.00 unch 216.00 unch 216.00 unch 215.00 -1.00 184.00 -2.00 189.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 806 14/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 218.00 +2.00 218.00 +2.00 218.00 +2.00 217.00 +2.00 186.00 +2.00 189.00 unch 190.00 unch 2008 |
## 827 16/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 218.00 unch 218.00 unch 218.00 unch 217.00 unch 185.00 -1.00 190.00 +1.00 190.00 unch 2008 |
## 834 06/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 218.00 +2.00 218.00 +2.00 216.00 +2.00 216.00 unch 188.00 unch 194.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 844 07/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 215.00 -3.00 215.00 -3.00 215.00 -1.00 215.00 -1.00 186.00 -2.00 190.00 -4.00 191.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 846 08/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 215.00 unch 215.00 unch 215.00 unch 214.00 -1.00 185.00 -1.00 189.00 -1.00 190.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 855 09/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 215.00 unch 215.00 unch 215.00 unch 215.00 +1.00 185.00 unch 190.00 +1.00 191.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 861 29/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 212.00 unch 212.00 +1.00 210.00 unch 208.00 +1.00 181.00 +1.00 187.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 868 30/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 214.00 +2.00 214.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 182.00 +1.00 187.00 unch 2008 |
## 872 01/12/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 214.00 unch 214.00 unch 212.00 unch 212.00 +2.00 184.00 +2.00 190.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 899 22/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: unq n/a 210.00 unch 208.00 +1.00 207.00 +2.00 180.00 unch 188.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 905 23/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 209.00 n/a 210.00 +1.00 210.00 +2.00 207.00 unch 178.00 -2.00 186.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 909 24/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 214.00 n/a 212.00 +3.00 211.00 +1.00 210.00 unch 207.00 unch 180.00 +2.00 188.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 921 25/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 214.00 unch 212.00 unch 212.00 +1.00 209.00 -1.00 207.00 unch 180.00 unch 187.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 931 15/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 216.00 -1.00 214.00 -2.00 207.00 -4.00 205.00 unch 182.00 -2.00 189.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 939 16/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: 217.00 +1.00 215.00 +1.00 210.00 +3.00 205.00 unch 181.00 -1.00 189.00 unch 2008 |
## 958 18/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: unq n/a 213.00 +5.00 207.00 +2.00 205.00 +3.00 179.00 +2.00 186.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 963 19/11/10 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading day: unq n/a 210.00 -3.00 207.00 unch 205.00 unch 180.00 +1.00 1867.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 974 08/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 214.00 n/a 213.00 unch 212.00 unch 207.00 +1.00 203.00 +1.00 182.00 +1.00 188.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 987 10/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 220.00 +6.00 220.00 +6.00 220.00 +6.00 215.00 +7.00 210.00 +6.00 190.00 +7.00 196.00 +7.00 2008 |
## 997 11/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 217.00 -3.00 216.00 -4.00 216.00 -4.00 211.00 -4.00 205.00 -5.00 184.00 -6.00 191.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 1011 01/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 206.00 -3.00 205.00 unch 203.00 unch 198.00 unch 180.00 +2.00 186.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1024 04/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: unq n/a 210.00 n/a 203.00 n/a 198.00 n/a 178.00 n/a 185.00 n/a 2008 |
## 1030 05/11/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: unq n/a 213.00 n/a 212.00 +2.00 206.00 +3.00 202.00 +4.00 181.00 +3.00 189.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 1042 25/10/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 205.00 +1.00 202.00 unch 201.00 +2.00 198.00 unch 183.00 +1.00 193.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1059 28/10/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 201.00 +3.00 199.00 +1.00 197.00 -1.00 194.00 unch 175.00 -1.00 184.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1069 29/10/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 209.00 +8.00 205.00 +6.00 203.00 +6.00 198.00 +4.00 178.00 +3.00 185.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1096 21/10/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: unq 205.00 +7.00 202.00 +6.00 198.00 +6.00 183.00 +5.00 192.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 1106 22/10/10 -- Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 204.00 n/a 202.00 -3.00 199.00 -3.00 198.00 unch 182.00 -1.00 192.00 unch 2008 |
## 1112 11/10/10 -- Latest FOB Lower Rhine in euros/tonne: 2008 |
## 1171 14/03/11 -- Rapeseed prices are down sharply today following Friday's soybean losses in Chicago which have been carried over into the overnight Globex session. Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne: 186.00 186.00 170.00 175.00 177.00 2008 |
## 1227 03/10/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. Not exactly following the soya market these are they: 180.00 -2.00 179.00 unch 178.00 unch 178.00 unch 177.00 unch 157.00 unch 167.00 unch 2008 |
## 1257 26/09/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 181.00 +1.00 178.00 +3.00 177.00 +3.00 175.00 +2.00 155.00 +2.00 165.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 1273 19/09/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 180.00 -1.00 180.00 -1.00 180.00 -1.00 180.00 -3.00 178.00 -2.00 157.00 -2.00 169.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1278 20/09/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 unch 180.00 unch 177.00 -3.00 177.00 -3.00 176.00 -2.00 156.00 -1.00 166.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 1319 06/09/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 182.00 unch 182.00 -1.00 183.00 -2.00 185.00 -2.00 182.00 -3.00 163.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1326 07/09/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 180.00 -2.00 180.00 -2.00 182.00 -1.00 184.00 -1.00 182.00 unch 162.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1331 08/09/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 184.00 +4.00 184.00 +4.00 184.00 +2.00 185.00 +1.00 183.00 +1.00 163.00 +1.00 173.00 n/a 2008 |
## 1379 25/08/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 168.00 unch 171.00 unch 179.00 -1.00 180.00 unch 179.00 unch 160.00 unch 2008 |
## 1404 08/08/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 168.00 -2.00 168.00 -2.00 171.00 -5.00 173.00 -5.00 171.00 -3.00 151.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 1425 02/08/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 172.00 unch 172.00 unch 178.00 unch 179.00 unch 176.00 unch 157.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1436 03/08/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 170.00 -2.00 171.00 -1.00 178.00 unch 180.00 +1.00 176.00 unch 157.00 unch 2008 |
## 1442 04/08/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 170.00 unch 170.00 unch 176.00 -2.00 178.00 -2.00 174.00 -2.00 155.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1501 21/07/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 180.00 -2.00 178.00 -1.00 175.00 -2.00 181.00 -2.00 183.00 -2.00 178.00 -4.00 158.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1516 11/07/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 188.00 n/a 184.00 -1.00 183.00 unch 187.00 -1.00 189.00 -1.00 186.00 unch 166.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1536 05/07/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 187.00 -6.00 184.00 -2.00 187.00 -2.00 189.00 -2.00 185.00 -2.00 166.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1543 06/07/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 189.00 +2.00 185.00 n/a 184.00 unch 187.00 unch 189.00 unch 186.00 +1.00 166.00 unch 2008 |
## 1548 07/07/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 189.00 unch 185.00 unch 184.00 unch 188.00 +1.00 190.00 +1.00 186.00 unch 166.00 unch 2008 |
## 1553 08/07/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 185.00 unch 183.00 -1.00 188.00 unch 190.00 unch 186.00 unch 165.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1569 29/06/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 192.00 +2.00 184.00 +1.00 188.00 +2.00 190.00 +2.00 188.00 +3.00 167.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 1601 21/06/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 194.00 -1.00 194.00 -1.00 190.00 -5.00 194.00 -5.00 194.00 -5.00 193.00 -5.00 175.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1611 16/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 175.00 unch 183.00 unch 185.00 +3.00 188.00 +2.00 190.00 +2.00 189.00 +1.00 180.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 1617 17/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 183.00 +8.00 184.00 +1.00 187.00 +2.00 191.00 +3.00 193.00 +3.00 192.00 +3.00 180.00 unch 2008 |
## 1626 18/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq 188.00 +4.00 189.00 +2.00 192.00 +1.00 194.00 +1.00 193.00 +1.00 186.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 1629 19/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 190.00 n/a 194.00 +6.00 197.00 +8.00 199.00 +7.00 201.00 +7.00 200.00 +7.00 186.00 2008 |
## 1640 09/05/11 -- EU rapemeal prices appear to have dramatically transformed themselves from a ginger-haired stepson sat on the orphanage steps crying his eyes out to Antonio Banderas beating women off with a excrement-coated stick in the space of a weekend. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 +10.00 185.00 +10.00 184.00 +11.00 186.00 +12.00 190.00 +15.00 190.00 +15.00 182.00 +12.00 2008 |
## 1647 10/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 180.00 unch 185.00 unch 185.00 +1.00 189.00 +3.00 191.00 +1.00 191.00 +1.00 185.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 1656 11/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 unch 186.00 +1.00 185.00 unch 188.00 -1.00 191.00 unch 191.00 unch 185.00 unch 2008 |
## 1658 12/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 175.00 -5.00 183.00 -3.00 182.00 -3.00 186.00 -2.00 188.00 -3.00 188.00 -3.00 184.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1691 16/06/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 197.00 +3.00 197.00 +3.00 195.00 +1.00 200.00 +5.00 202.00 +5.00 199.00 +4.00 178.00 unch 2008 |
## 1730 31/05/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 195.00 -1.00 198.00 -2.00 202.00 -1.00 205.00 -2.00 207.00 -2.00 206.00 -1.00 186.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1737 01/06/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 190.00 -5.00 195.00 -3.00 197.00 -5.00 200.00 -5.00 202.00 -5.00 201.00 -5.00 185.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1744 31/10/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 175.00 unch 175.00 +1.00 174.00 unch 173.00 +1.00 154.00 +1.00 161.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1748 03/06/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 194.00 +4.00 200.00 +5.00 201.00 +4.00 205.00 +5.00 207.00 +5.00 204.00 +3.00 184.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1753 24/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 195.00 +7.00 197.00 unch 199.00 +2.00 198.00 -3.00 202.00 -1.00 204.00 -1.00 201.00 -2.00 186.00 unch 2008 |
## 1756 23/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 188.00 -4.00 197.00 unch 201.00 +4.00 203.00 +3.00 205.00 +3.00 203.00 +2.00 186.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1763 25/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq 195.00 -2.00 198.00 -1.00 197.00 -1.00 201.00 -1.00 203.00 -1.00 200.00 -1.00 186.00 unch 2008 |
## 1773 26/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq 193.00 -2.00 197.00 -1.00 196.00 -1.00 201.00 unch 204.00 +1.00 203.00 +3.00 186.00 unch 2008 |
## 1779 27/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq 197.00 +4.00 197.00 unch 203.00 +7.00 205.00 +4.00 209.00 +5.00 207.00 +4.00 186.00 unch 2008 |
## 1784 03/05/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 175.00 -7.00 180.00 -3.00 179.00 -3.00 181.00 -4.00 184.00 -3.00 184.00 -2.00 178.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1797 04/05/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 175.00 unch 178.00 -2.00 175.00 -4.00 178.00 -3.00 182.00 -2.00 180.00 -4.00 175.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 1803 05/05/11 -- EU rapemeal prices continue to fall out of bed. May is down EUR19.00/tonne in a fortnight, with new crop Aug/Oct falling by EUR10.00/tonne. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 173.00 -2.00 176.00 -2.00 174.00 -1.00 177.00 -1.00 179.00 -3.00 179.00 -1.00 175.00 unch 2008 |
## 1836 26/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 191.00 unch 193.00 +1.00 194.00 +2.00 187.00 +3.00 191.00 +2.00 193.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 1845 27/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 190.00 -1.00 190.00 -3.00 192.00 -2.00 186.00 -1.00 190.00 -1.00 191.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1849 28/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 186.00 -4.00 186.00 -4.00 186.00 -6.00 183.00 -3.00 187.00 -3.00 189.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1860 18/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 184.00 +4.00 184.00 +2.00 175.00 +3.00 178.00 +2.00 180.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 1873 21/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 191.00 +2.00 192.00 +3.00 192.00 +3.00 184.00 unch 189.00 unch 190.00 unch 2008 |
## 1882 15/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 -2.00 180.00 -2.00 182.00 unch 172.00 -2.00 176.00 -2.00 178.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 1883 14/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 182.00 -2.00 182.00 -3.00 182.00 -3.00 174.00 -1.00 178.00 -3.00 180.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 1893 04/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 192.00 unch 192.00 -1.00 181.00 -2.00 186.00 -1.00 187.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1902 05/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 190.00 -2.00 190.00 -2.00 180.00 -1.00 185.00 -1.00 186.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1904 06/04/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 188.00 -2.00 188.00 -2.00 178.00 -2.00 182.00 -3.00 183.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 1926 29/03/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 192.00 +3.00 192.00 +3.00 192.00 +4.00 179.00 unch 183.00 +1.00 184.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1938 30/03/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 191.00 -1.00 191.00 -1.00 190.00 -2.00 180.00 +1.00 184.00 +1.00 185.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 1943 31/03/11 -- Here's the latest guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 190.00 -1.00 190.00 unch 180.00 unch 184.00 unch 185.00 unch 2008 |
## 1945 01/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 170.00 -5.00 173.00 -2.00 173.00 -1.00 171.00 -2.00 152.00 -2.00 160.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 1951 01/04/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 192.00 +2.00 193.00 +3.00 183.00 +3.00 187.00 +3.00 188.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 1959 15/03/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal. Basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 -6.00 180.00 -6.00 168.00 -2.00 173.00 -2.00 174.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2097 02/07/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are steady, mirroring further soymeal increases in Chicago on Friday night and again this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 276.00 +4.00 264.00 +1.00 260.00 +3.00 252.00 +2.00 250.00 +4.00 227.00 +2.00 198.00 +5.00 203.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2102 04/07/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent today see deferred months starting to reduce some of the differential between them and the nearby positions. Chicago soymeal set contract highs last night, adding support to rapemeal prices. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 275.00 -1.00 263.00 -1.00 262.00 +2.00 26100 +9.00 256.00 +6.00 233.00 +6.00 198.00 unch 204.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2107 05/07/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are extremely steady nearby once again, although forward prices are a little easier having some of yesterday's in-built protection removed. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 268.00 +5.00 263.00 +1.00 259.00 -2.00 255.00 -1.00 230.00 -3.00 197.00 -1.00 208.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2114 25/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher following another largely hot and dry weekend in the US that sees soymeal prices USD12-17 firmer in the electronic Globex market this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 270.00 +8.00 253.00 +16.00 247.00 +13.00 245.00 +13.00 228.00 +12.00 192.00 +5.00 201.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 2118 26/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. Despite a sharply higher close in Chicago soymeal last night traders say that yesterday's levels already had some in-built protection. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 272.00 +2.00 254.00 +1.00 248.00 -5.00 246.00 -1.00 242.00 -3.00 224.00 -4.00 192.00 unch 200.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2121 27/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. Nearby availabilty remains tight, supported by fully steady soymeal prices. The EU Commission forecast rapeseed yields in Europe to come in 2.87 MT/ha this year, 4% down on the five year average. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 272.00 unch 255.00 +1.00 250.00 +2.00 245.00 -1.00 241.00 -1.00 222.00 -2.00 192.00 unch 200.00 unch 2008 |
## 2127 28/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher once again, reflecting overnight strength in Chicago soymeal. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 272.00 unch 263.00 +8.00 257.00 +7.00 250.00 +5.00 246.00 +5.00 225.00 +3.00 193.00 +1.00 200.00 unch 2008 |
## 2142 20/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly higher after some steep rises in Chicago soymeal last night. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 265.00 unch 265.00 unch 241.00 +5.00 238.00 +4.00 237.00 +6.00 222.00 +5.00 190.00 +4.00 197.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2150 21/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today as some of the protection that had been built into prices following recent steep gains in Chicago soymeal is taken away. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 260.00 -5.00 261.00 -4.00 239.00 -2.00 234.00 -4.00 232.00 -5.00 217.00 -5.00 186.00 -4.00 193.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 2155 22/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. Widespread wet & dull weather across Europe is seen delaying the harvest and may be starting to harm yield potential. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 262.00 +2.00 262.00 +1.00 237.00 -2.00 234.00 unch 232.00 unch 216.00 -1.00 187.00 +1.00 195.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2158 11/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today, succumbing to the general mood of apathy that seems to be engulfing the rest of the market. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 258.00 unch 258.00 unch 235.00 +2.00 231.00 unch 229.00 +1.00 218.00 +3.00 186.00 unch 194.00 unch 2008 |
## 2187 06/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer sharply higher following good gains in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning in follow through electronic trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 264.00 +11.00 260.00 +7.00 234.00 +8.00 229.00 +5.00 228.00 +5.00 217.00 +8.00 188.00 +9.00 195.00 +9.00 2008 |
## 2193 07/06/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, but mostly a little lower today, consolidating a little after some steep rises yesterday. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 260.00 -4.00 258.00 -2.00 233.00 -1.00 231.00 +2.00 230.00 +2.00 217.00 unch 188.00 unch 198.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2201 29/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer in line with overnight strength in soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 245.00 +5.00 220.00 +6.00 219.00 +6.00 21800 +6.00 210.00 +8.00 175.00 +3.00 183.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2207 30/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little easier today as EU crop conditions & prospects improve. 2013/14 prices are marked a little higher, but still offer substantial savings to the coming crop, with Aug/Oct 2013/14 a hefty EUR42/tonne discount to the same period in 2012/12. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 245.00 unch 244.00 -1.00 219.00 -1.00 217.00 -2.00 216.00 -2.00 208.00 -2.00 177.00 +2.00 185.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2221 21/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little steadier today, supported by ideas of crop losses in eastern Europe and Ukraine. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 248.00 +3.00 248.00 +3.00 215.00 unch 215.00 +3.00 205.00 +3.00 175.00 -1.00 183.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2226 22/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change for once today, with last night's CBOT soymeal gains being erased by losses in the overnight electronic market. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 245.00 -3.00 245.00 -3.00 216.00 +1.00 215.00 unch 205.00 unch 175.00 unch 183.00 unch 2008 |
## 2236 24/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 241.00 -1.00 240.00 -2.00 214.00 unch 213.00 -1.00 212.00 -1.00 202.00 -1.00 172.00 -1.00 180.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2239 25/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent unchanged across the board today for the first time in months. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 241.00 unch 240.00 unch 214.00 unch 213.00 unch 212.00 unch 202.00 unch 172.00 unch 180.00 unch 2008 |
## 2240 23/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower following last night's weakness in Chicago soymeal. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 242.00 -3.00 242.00 -3.00 214.00 -2.00 214.00 -1.00 213.00 -2.00 203.00 -2.00 173.00 -2.00 181.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2242 14/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board today following steep losses in Chicago soymeal on Friday night and again this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 243.00 -5.00 243.00 -5.00 205.00 -6.00 205.00 -5.00 205.00 -5.00 195.00 -8.00 172.00 -6.00 178.00 -8.00 2008 |
## 2247 15/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, a bit steadier on nearby old crop months and unchanged to a tad lower on new crop. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 245.00 +2.00 245.00 +2.00 205.00 unch 205.00 unch 204.00 -1.00 195.00 unch 170.00 -2.00 178.00 unch 2008 |
## 2258 16/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower mostly a little steadier today. Despite being lower on the electronic Globex market, Chicago soymeal prices are still showing net gains versus this time yesterday. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 246.00 +1.00 245.00 unch 207.00 +2.00 207.00 +2.00 206.00 +2.00 197.00 +2.00 172.00 +2.00 180.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2263 18/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher, playing catch up with two days of gains in Chicago soymeal after the market was closed yesterday for Ascension Day. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 245.00 -1.00 245.00 unch 215.00 +8.00 212.00 +5.00 212.00 +6.00 202.00 +5.00 176.00 +4.00 184.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2271 09/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little higher today, partially recovering from steep declines earlier in the week that mirror soybean losses in Chicago. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 251.00 unch 251.00 +1.00 210.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 197.00 +2.00 173.00 +1.00 182.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2277 10/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today following last night's losses in Chicago soymeal. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 248.00 -3.00 248.00 -3.00 209.00 -1.00 209.00 -1.00 209.00 -1.00 198.00 +1.00 174.00 +1.00 182.00 unch 2008 |
## 2286 14/08/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply lower today in line with steep losses in Chicago soymeal last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 282.00 -9.00 282.00 -9.00 282.00 -6.00 280.00 -5.00 244.00 -4.00 209.00 -6.00 218.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2288 11/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little higher today on the back of sharp rises in Chicago soymeal last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 248.00 unch 248.00 unch 211.00 +2.00 210.00 +1.00 210.00 +1.00 203.00 +5.00 178.00 +4.00 185.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2294 30/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today in line with significant gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 265.00 +5.00 260.00 +3.00 223.00 +5.00 224.00 +4.00 220.00 unch 211.00 +1.00 181.00 +1.00 191.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2302 02/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, but mostly a little higher today after the market was closed yesterday for the May Day holiday. Old crop tightness remains. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 264.00 -1.00 263.00 +3.00 222.00 -1.00 222.00 -2.00 223.00 +3.00 212.00 +1.00 183.00 +2.00 193.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2308 03/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply lower in line with Chicago soymeal declines last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 260.00 -3.00 217.00 -5.00 218.00 -4.00 218.00 -5.00 205.00 -7.00 177.00 -6.00 185.00 -8.00 2008 |
## 2315 04/05/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are down for a second day today. Recent rains in Western Europe are hoped to have improved rapeseed production prospects for 2012. Hot and dry Eastern Europe is also set for a cool down and a decent shot of rain across the weekend and into the early part of next week. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 258.00 n/a 258.00 -2.00 214.00 -3.00 216.00 -2.00 216.00 -2.00 203.00 -2.00 177.00 unch 185.00 unch 2008 |
## 2318 23/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher this morning, in line with steep gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday night, where prices closed at their highest levels since 2009. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 257.00 +9.00 257.00 +9.00 215.00 +3.00 217.00 +4.00 219.00 +4.00 213.00 +6.00 185.00 +8.00 195.00 +9.00 2008 |
## 2321 23/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit easier today following losses in Chicago soymeal last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 255.00 -2.00 253.00 -4.00 214.00 -1.00 215.00 -2.00 216.00 -3.00 210.00 -3.00 182.00 -3.00 192.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2328 25/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher this morning, in line with steep gains in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 257.00 +4.00 218.00 +4.00 219.00 +4.00 220.00 +4.00 210.00 unch 181.00 -1.00 191.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2331 26/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer today following firmer Chicago soymeal last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 260.00 n/a 258.00 +2.00 220.00 +2.00 221.00 +2.00 223.00 +3.00 213.00 +3.00 183.00 +2.00 193.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2336 27/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are around a euro lower on old crop and one to three euros weaker on new crop this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 260.00 unch 257.00 -1.00 218.00 -1.00 220.00 -1.00 220.00 -3.00 210.00 -3.00 180.00 -3.00 190.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2342 16/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today in line with weaker soymeal prices overnight. Nearby availability remains fully tight though. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 245.00 unch 242.00 unch 207.00 -2.00 209.00 unch 211.00 unch 204.00 +1.00 175.00 n/a 185.00 n/a 2008 |
## 2348 17/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged to slightly easier today weighed down by last night's losses in Chicago soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 243.00 -2.00 240.00 -2.00 207.00 unch 208.00 -1.00 210.00 -1.00 204.00 unch 175.00 unch 184.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2350 18/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little firmer today on lower EU rapeseed production prospects for 2012. Nearby availability remains tight as crusher activity stays light due to slack demand for the oil. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 243.00 unch 243.00 +3.00 209.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 203.00 -1.00 176.00 +1.00 184.00 unch 2008 |
## 2362 20/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly higher today supported by last night's gains in Chicago soymeal and a strong rapeseed market. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 246.00 +1.00 246.00 +4.00 212.00 +2.00 213.00 +1.00 215.00 +2.00 207.00 +2.00 177.00 unch 186.00 unch 2008 |
## 2368 10/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today in line with rising rapeseed prices, with front month May 12 Paris futures closing EUR4.00/tonne higher on Thursday night and adding a further EUR2.00/tonne this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 242.00 +1.00 240.00 +3.00 209.00 +2.00 211.00 +2.00 213.00 +2.00 205.00 +2.00 180.00 +2.00 190.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2375 11/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a little lower today, in line with losses in Chicago soymeal last night. Old crop levels are unchanged as plant closures, and the subsequent reduced production, look like keeping availability tight across the summer. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 242.00 unch 240.00 unch 208.00 -1.00 209.00 -2.00 211.00 -2.00 203.00 -2.00 175.00 -5.00 185.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 2383 12/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today in line with weaker soymeal prices in Chicago over the past couple of sessions. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 241.00 -1.00 240.00 unch 205.00 -3.00 207.00 -2.00 209.00 -2.00 200.00 -3.00 174.00 -1.00 182.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2385 13/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are back on the up, with crushers taking downtime meal availiability is extremely tigh and looks set to stay that way at least through until new crop comes along. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 245.00 +4.00 242.00 +2.00 209.00 +4.00 209.00 +2.00 211.00 +2.00 203.00 +3.00 unq n/a unq n/a 2008 |
## 2390 02/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher this morning in line with steep gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday night, and again this morning. There is likely to be some protection built into these levels as traders seem unsure where to price this market up. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 245.00 +10.00 240.00 +12.00 207.00 +11.00 211.00 +12.00 213.00 +12.00 209.00 +17.00 180.00 +16.00 190.00 +17.00 2008 |
## 2395 03/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad lower today, as some of yesterday's protection gets taken off. The market is still fully steady though, with concerns that Europe's rapeseed crop won't come in at much more than 18 MMT this year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 243.00 -2.00 238.00 -2.00 209.00 +2.00 210.00 -1.00 211.00 -2.00 208.00 -1.00 180.00 unch 190.00 unch 2008 |
## 2400 04/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a little lower today with some of protection built into these levels earlier in the week now being taken out. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 242.00 -1.00 238.00 unch 206.00 -3.00 206.00 -4.00 209.00 -2.00 205.00 -3.00 178.00 -2.00 187.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2405 05/04/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, with little trade expected as the trade winds down for the long Easter weekend. Front month Paris rapeseed futures closed at their highest in more than twelve months last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 241.00 -1.00 237.00 -1.00 207.00 +1.00 209.00 +3.00 211.00 +2.00 203.00 -2.00 178.00 unch 187.00 unch 2008 |
## 2421 28/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent little changed today, nearby availability remains tight - a situation that looks like staying with us until new crop. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 231.00 -2.00 223.00 unch 191.00 -1.00 194.00 unch 195.00 -1.00 187.00 -5.00 165.00 -2.00 175.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2426 29/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to rise with attention now starting to focus on potential crop losses due to ongoing drought in France, Germany, Poland and the UK. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 237.00 +6.00 230.00 +7.00 196.00 +5.00 200.00 +6.00 202.00 +7.00 196.00 +9.00 168.00 +3.00 178.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2432 30/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower for once, in line with sharp losses overnight in Chicago soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 235.00 -2.00 228.00 -2.00 196.00 unch 199.00 -1.00 201.00 -1.00 192.00 -4.00 164.00 -4.00 173.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 2441 19/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change today, although Mar 12 is offered for the first time this month, albeit at a significant premium. Maybe availability isn't quite as tight as the crushers might like you to think? Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 230.00 n/a 224.00 -1.00 215.00 +2.00 184.00 +2.00 185.00 unch 187.00 +1.00 186.00 +2.00 164.00 unch 174.00 unch 2008 |
## 2446 15/08/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent little changed today despite some decent gains last night and again this morning in soymeal values in Chicago. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 282.00 unch 282.00 unch 282.00 unch 280.00 unch 245.00 +1.00 211.00 +2.00 216.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2447 20/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board for once, mirroring falls in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning. Nearby tightness continues with no offers on the table for March today. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 222.00 -2.00 212.00 -3.00 180.00 -4.00 181.00 -4.00 183.00 -4.00 181.00 -5.00 162.00 -2.00 170.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 2453 21/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are down for a second day, in line with losses in Chicago last night. Nearby availability remains tight due to poor crush margins. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 218.00 -4.00 208.00 -4.00 177.00 -3.00 181.00 unch 183.00 unch 180.00 -1.00 161.00 -1.00 170.00 unch 2008 |
## 2458 22/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed, mostly a tad firmer today. Nearby tightness continues with March not offered once again. New crop is a bit steadier on ideas that crop losses in France due to the February freeze may be worse than was first thought. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 219.00 +1.00 207.00 -1.00 179.00 +2.00 182.00 +1.00 184.00 +1.00 180.00 unch 162.00 +1.00 171.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2460 12/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change today, but remain fully steady despite losses in Chicago soymeal on Friday night. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 209.00 +1.00 196.00 -1.00 175.00 unch 178.00 -1.00 180.00 unch 179.00 +1.00 164.00 unch 2008 |
## 2463 23/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher, in line with gains in the overnight Chicago market and firmer rapeseed levels in Paris. Nearby availability remains tight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 220.00 +1.00 211.00 +4.00 181.00 +2.00 185.00 +3.00 185.00 +1.00 183.00 +3.00 163.00 +1.00 172.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2472 13/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain fully steady, for nearby in particular with March not offered and the remaining old crop positions EUR6.00/tonne higher. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 215.00 +6.00 202.00 +6.00 177.00 +2.00 179.00 +1.00 181.00 +1.00 178.00 -1.00 162.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2479 14/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher for a second day running following gains in Chicago soymeal last night. Old crop months are now EUR12/tonne firmer in just two days. Nearby tightness continues. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 221.00 +6.00 208.00 +6.00 181.00 +4.00 183.00 +4.00 185.00 +4.00 182.00 +4.00 164.00 +2.00 175.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2486 15/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain steady, with nearby tightness in availability continuing. May/Jul gains a little on Apr today. New crop shows little change. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 221.00 unch 211.00 +3.00 180.00 -1.00 182.00 -1.00 185.00 unch 182.00 unch 163.00 -1.00 175.00 +unch 2008 |
## 2489 16/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher again following sharp gains in Chicago soymeal last night. Nearby tightness continues on old crop as producers scale down their crush aspirations due, they say, to poor margins. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 225.00 +4.00 213.00 +2.00 182.00 +2.00 185.00 +3.00 186.00 +1.00 184.00 +2.00 164.00 +1.00 174.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2493 05/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to rise, mimicing gains in soymeal in Chicago, but also reflecting tightness in rapeseed availability. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 210.00 +5.00 207.00 +8.00 194.00 +4.00 172.00 +3.00 175.00 +2.00 177.00 +2.00 175.00 +2.00 163.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2499 06/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a touch easier in line with modest falls in Chicago last night and again this morning. Large front-end premiums remain. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 209.00 -1.00 205.00 -2.00 193.00 -1.00 171.00 -1.00 173.00 -2.00 175.00 -2.00 174.00 -1.00 163.00 unch 2008 |
## 2508 07/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain steady, with no offers on nearby March today as front month availability stays tight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 206.00 +1.00 191.00 -2.00 171.00 unch 174.00 +1.00 176.00 +1.00 175.00 +1.00 165.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2509 08/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change today as the market treads water awaiting tomorrow's all important USDA numbers. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 210.00 n/a 204.00 -2.00 191.00 unch 171.00 unch 175.00 +1.00 176.00 unch 174.00 -1.00 160.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 2516 09/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain fully steady posting gains of EUR4-6.00/tonne today following gains in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 215.00 +5.00 208.00 +4.00 197.00 +6.00 175.00 +4.00 179.00 +4.00 180.00 +4.00 178.00 +4.00 164.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2522 28/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat to a bit firmer today, consolidating a touch after recent steep gains. Nearby availability remains very tight. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 200.00 +3.00 195.00 unch 189.00 +1.00 185.00 +1.00 167.00 unch 172.00 unch 174.00 unch 2008 |
## 2529 29/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat to mostly a little steadier today, in line with a firmer Chicago close on soya last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 199.00 -1.00 196.00 +1.00 190.00 +1.00 186.00 +1.00 168.00 +1.00 172.00 unch 174.00 unch 2008 |
## 2540 02/03/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today, especially on old crop months. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 205.00 +6.00 199.00 +3.00 194.00 +4.00 190.00 +4.00 169.00 +1.00 173.00 +1.00 175.00 +1.00 173.00 +1.00 163.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2543 20/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to climb with nearby availability particularly tight. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 195.00 +5.00 191.00 +6.00 182.00 +5.00 167.00 +3.00 171.00 +3.00 173.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2554 22/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little easier today, consolidating a touch after recent steep gains. Nearby availability remains very tight. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 200.00 unch 194.00 unch 187.00 -1.00 184.00 -1.00 167.00 -2.00 172.00 -1.00 174.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2559 23/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat to a little easier today, although nearby availability remains very tight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 199.00 -1.00 193.00 -1.00 187.00 unch 182.00 -2.00 167.00 unch 172.00 unch 173.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2576 15/02/12 -- Been away for a few days, hence the lack of blogging, so I've no idea if these prices are up, down or sideways. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 187.00 n/a 183.00 n/a 175.00 n/a 163.00 n/a 168.00 n/a 170.00 n/a 2008 |
## 2581 16/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit firmer today in line with modest gains in CBOT soymeal last night. Spot availability is tight. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 189.00 +2.00 185.00 +2.00 179.00 +4.00 164.00 +1.00 168.00 unch 170.00 unch 2008 |
## 2589 16/08/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change for a second day running, despite sharp gains in Chicago soymeal last night. That sounds like a buying opportunity to me! Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 282.00 unch 282.00 unch 282.00 unch 278.00 -2.00 244.00 -1.00 212.00 +1.00 214.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2590 17/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain steady, with a significant front end premium in evidence due to tight availability. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 190.00 +1.00 185.00 unch 177.00 -2.00 164.00 unch 168.00 unch 170.00 unch 2008 |
## 2595 06/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher on the back of gains in Chicago soymeal on Friday. There are also concerns over damage potential to rapeseed crops in Ukraine, Poland, France and Germany caused by the recent extreme cold spell. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 194.00 +6.00 193.00 +7.00 190.00 +6.00 181.00 +5.00 170.00 +6.00 174.00 +5.00 176.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 2600 07/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit lower in line with modest losses in CBOT soymeal last night and again this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 189.00 -5.00 189.00 -4.00 187.00 -3.00 179.00 -2.00 167.00 -3.00 172.00 -2.00 174.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2607 08/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower on ideas that recent rises have been overdone and a weaker Chicago soymeal market last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 187.00 -2.00 185.00 -4.00 184.00 -3.00 175.00 -4.00 163.00 -4.00 168.00 -4.00 169.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 2612 09/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit lower today in line with modest losses in CBOT soymeal last night and again this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: unq n/a 184.00 -1.00 182.00 -2.00 174.00 -1.00 162.00 -1.00 167.00 -1.00 169.00 unch 2008 |
## 2622 30/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are slightly easier in the main today, only partially reflecting Friday night's and this mornings losses in Chicago soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 186.00 -1.00 183.00 -1.00 180.00 unch 173.00 -1.00 160.00 -1.00 165.00 -1.00 167.00 unch 2008 |
## 2627 31/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are down today, reflecting last night's sharp fall in CBOT soymeal, although those declines are tempered somewhat by gains in the overnight Globex session. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 184.00 -2.00 180.00 -3.00 178.00 -2.00 169.00 -4.00 157.00 -3.00 162.00 -3.00 164.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2636 01/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher in line with decent gains last night in Chicago soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 187.00 +3.00 184.00 +4.00 182.00 +4.00 174.00 +5.00 162.00 +5.00 167.00 +5.00 169.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 2642 02/02/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a couple of euro's firmer following a rise in CBOT soymeal last night. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 188.00 +1.00 186.00 +2.00 184.00 +2.00 176.00 +2.00 164.00 +2.00 169.00 +2.00 171.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2653 16/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices continue to slide lower, following losses in Chicago soymeal since Thursday's USDA report. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 183.00 -1.00 171.00 -3.00 167.00 -1.00 163.00 -2.00 150.00 unch 155.00 unch 156.00 unch 2008 |
## 2659 17/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little firmer today, in line with soymeal gains on the overnight Globex market. Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 182.00 -1.00 173.00 +2.00 171.00 +4.00 164.00 +1.00 151.00 +1.00 155.00 unch 156.00 unch 2008 |
## 2665 18/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices are mostly a little higher this morning following last night's soymeal gains in Chicago. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 183.00 +1.00 174.00 +1.00 173.00 +2.00 162.00 -2.00 151.00 unch 156.00 +1.00 158.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2672 19/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little firmer today, in line with soymeal gains on the overnight Globex market. Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 183.00 unch 175.00 +1.00 172.00 -1.00 164.00 +2.00 152.00 +1.00 157.00 +1.00 159.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2678 20/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit of a mixed bag today, slightly weaker nearby and a bit firmer going forward. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 181.00 -2.00 174.00 -1.00 173.00 +1.00 166.00 +2.00 153.00 +1.00 159.00 +2.00 161.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2683 09/01/12 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 190.00 -1.00 183.00 +4.00 179.00 +3.00 172.00 +3.00 155.00 +3.00 160.00 +2.00 161.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2691 10/01/12 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 193.00 +3.00 185.00 +2.00 180.00 +1.00 174.00 +2.00 159.00 +4.00 164.00 +4.00 165.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2694 11/01/12 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 192.00 -1.00 180.00 -5.00 176.00 -4.00 170.00 -4.00 156.00 -3.00 160.00 -4.00 161.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 2701 12/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are down sharply for the second day running on the back of a slump in the Chicago soymeal market due to rains in Argentina. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 186.00 -6.00 175.00 -5.00 172.00 -4.00 167.00 -3.00 152.00 -4.00 157.00 -3.00 158.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 2703 13/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to fall in line with declines on soya in America. Jan12 is down EUR7.00/tonne on the week and Feb/Apr12 down EUR8.00/tonne. Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 184.00 -2.00 174.00 -1.00 168.00 -4.00 165.00 -2.00 150.00 -2.00 155.00 -2.00 156.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2711 23/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a bit firmer again today, in line with soymeal gains on the overnight Globex market. Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 183.00 +2.00 178.00 +4.00 174.00 +1.00 167.00 +1.00 154.00 +1.00 160.00 +1.00 161.00 unch 2008 |
## 2713 24/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are generally a bit firmer, in line with last night's gains in Chicago soymeal. Jan is a bit easier, giving up this nearby premium that's been around for some time now. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 180.00 -3.00 180.00 +2.00 178.00 +4.00 170.00 +3.00 156.00 +2.00 161.00 +1.00 163.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2724 25/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged to a tad easier today. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 180.00 unch 180.00 unch 177.00 -1.00 168.00 -2.00 156.00 unch 161.00 unch 162.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2730 26/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are on the rise again today, in line with last night's gains in Chicago soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 181.00 +1.00 181.00 +2.00 177.00 +2.00 171.00 +3.00 160.00 +4.00 164.00 +3.00 166.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2738 27/01/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to rise. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 187.00 +6.00 184.00 +3.00 180.00 +3.00 174.00 +3.00 161.00 +1.00 166.00 +2.00 167.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2742 04/01/12 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 194.00 +4.00 183.00 +5.00 179.00 +4.00 174.00 +5.00 158.00 +3.00 161.00 +3.00 1562.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2748 05/01/12 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 193.00 -1.00 183.00 unch 180.00 +1.00 172.00 -2.00 155.00 -3.00 162.00 +1.00 164.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2755 06/01/12 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 191.00 -2.00 179.00 -4.00 176.00 -4.00 169.00 -3.00 152.00 -3.00 158.00 -4.00 160.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 2760 28/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 187.00 +2.00 174.00 +2.00 169.00 +3.00 166.00 +1.00 150.00 +2.00 155.00 +2.00 159.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2768 29/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 188.00 +1.00 176.00 +2.00 171.00 +2.00 165.00 -1.00 150.00 unch 155.00 unch 158.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2776 19/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 188.00 +10.00 180.00 +5.00 172.00 +8.00 170.00 +10.00 149.00 +2.00 153.00 +3.00 155.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 2781 20/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: n/a n/a 180.00 unch 168.00 -4.00 167.00 -3.00 147.00 -2.00 152.00 -1.00 154.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2785 21/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: n/a n/a 180.00 unch 167.00 -1.00 165.00 -2.00 147.00 unch 151.00 -1.00 153.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2786 22/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 181.00 +1.00 172.00 -1.00 167.00 unch 164.00 -1.00 147.00 unch 150.00 -1.00 152.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2799 12/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 162.00 +2.00 160.00 unch 154.00 -2.00 152.00 -2.00 140.00 -2.00 146.00 -2.00 148.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2807 13/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: Unq n/a 161.00 +1.00 154.00 unch 152.00 unch 140.00 unch 146.00 unch 148.00 unch 2008 |
## 2811 15/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 175.00 n/a 171.00 +7.00 160.00 +3.00 158.00 +4.00 145.00 +1.00 151.00 +3.00 153.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2821 16/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 178.00 +3.00 175.00 +4.00 164.00 +4.00 160.00 +2.00 147.00 +2.00 150.00 -1.00 151.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2825 05/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 153.00 +3.00 153.00 +3.00 153.00 +3.00 152.00 +2.00 142.00 +3.00 148.00 +3.00 150.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 2829 07/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 157.00 +1.00 158.00 +3.00 157.00 +3.00 155.00 +4.00 144.00 +1.00 150.00 unch 151.00 unch 2008 |
## 2830 06/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 156.00 +3.00 155.00 +2.00 154.00 +1.00 151.00 -1.00 143.00 +1.00 150.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2838 08/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 158.00 +1.00 158.00 unch 154.00 -3.00 152.00 -3.00 141.00 -3.00 147.00 -3.00 149.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2847 09/12/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 160.00 +2.00 160.00 +2.00 156.00 +2.00 154.00 +2.00 142.00 +1.00 148.00 +1.00 150.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 2852 28/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 150.00 +2.00 150.00 +1.00 150.00 +1.00 149.00 unch 148.00 unch 139.00 unch 145.00 unch 2008 |
## 2858 29/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 148.00 -2.00 148.00 -2.00 148.00 -1.00 148.00 unch 137.00 -2.00 144.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2863 30/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 148.00 unch 148.00 unch 148.00 unch 147.00 -1.00 139.00 +1.00 143.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2871 01/12/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 150.00 +2.00 150.00 +2.00 150.00 +2.00 150.00 +3.00 139.00 unch 145.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 2877 21/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 159.00 unch 159.00 unch 159.00 unch 159.00 -1.00 158.00 unch 144.00 +1.00 150.00 unch 2008 |
## 2881 22/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 156.00 -3.00 157.00 -2.00 158.00 -1.00 158.00 -1.00 158.00 unch 143.00 -1.00 149.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2889 23/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 153.00 -3.00 153.00 -4.00 153.00 -5.00 153.00 -5.00 152.00 -6.00 140.00 -3.00 147.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2893 24/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 150.00 -3.00 150.00 -3.00 150.00 -3.00 150.00 -3.00 149.00 -3.00 139.00 -1.00 146.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2906 14/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 163.00 unch 166.00 -1.00 166.00 -1.00 166.00 -1.00 166.00 -1.00 146.00 -2.00 153.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2914 15/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 162.00 -1.00 164.00 -2.00 165.00 -1.00 166.00 unch 165.00 -1.00 146.00 unch 153.00 unch 2008 |
## 2920 16/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 161.00 -1.00 163.00 -1.00 165.00 unch 165.00 -1.00 164.00 -1.00 145.00 -1.00 152.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2921 17/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 160.00 -1.00 161.00 -2.00 162.00 -3.00 162.00 -3.00 162.00 -2.00 145.00 unch 151.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2932 18/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 159.00 -1.00 159.00 -2.00 159.00 -3.00 160.00 -2.00 158.00 -4.00 143.00 -2.00 150.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2945 09/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 164.00 -2.00 168.00 -1.00 169.00 unch 169.00 unch 168.00 unch 150.00 unch 157.00 unch 2008 |
## 2950 10/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 163.00 -1.00 167.00 -1.00 167.00 -2.00 167.00 -2.00 167.00 -1.00 148.00 -2.00 155.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 2964 02/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 170.00 unch 171.00 -2.00 171.00 -2.00 170.00 -1.00 151.00 -1.00 159.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2971 03/11/11 -- Guide prices for EU rapemeal, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous day: 168.00 -2.00 169.00 -2.00 169.00 -2.00 170.00 unch 151.00 unch 1589.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 2979 04/11/11 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 168.00 unch 171.00 +2.00 172.00 +3.00 171.00 +1.00 152.00 +1.00 159.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3018 07/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply lower for once, on improving rapeseed production prospects on a global level and following declines in soymeal values in Chicago last night. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 304.00 -8.00 300.00 -7.00 296.00 -9.00 219.00 -3.00 218.00 -4.00 218.00 -4.00 216.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 3024 08/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit firmer today, after posting a sharp correction yesterday, reflecting last night's rise in soymeal values in Chicago. Oil World yesterday downgraded their view on EU-28 rapeseed production from 20.2 MMT last week to 19.8 MMT, a drop of 3% on last year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 305.00 +1.00 301.00 +1.00 299.00 +3.00 222.00 +3.00 220.00 +2.00 220.00 +2.00 218.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3027 10/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, with old crop lower and new crop firmer today after the markets were closed yesterday for a holiday. There may be a bit of protection being built in to the new crop levels ahead of tonight's USDA report MDA CropCast yesterday forecast the EU 2013 rapeseed crop up 3% on last year, with Canadian output is seen rising 11.4%. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 305.00 unch 300.00 -1.00 295.00 -4.00 225.00 +3.00 224.00 +4.00 224.00 +4.00 222.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 3034 29/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer on old crop and weaker on new crop today. Tight availability due to reduced crush and seasonal downtime is keeping May/Jul offers fully steady. Some improvement in new crop rapeseed production prospects trims offers for August onwards a little, although rapemeal prices for the winter are still at historically high levels when compared as a percentage of soymeal values. Consumer interest in these forward positions is therefore minimal for the time being. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 320.00 +2.00 315.00 +1.00 312.00 +3.00 230.00 -2.00 230.00 -1.00 230.00 -1.00 228.00 unch 2008 |
## 3042 01/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. Oil World forecast the global rapeseed crop rising 2.6% to a record 64.1 MMT in 2013. Successful winter crop plantings and only limited winterkill losses provide a lot of optimism regarding next season’s rapeseed production in Europe, they say. Despite that, and lower soymeal values overnight, new crop rapemeal prices are marked higher today. Hmmmm... Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 320.00 unch 314.00 -1.00 312.00 unch 232.00 +2.00 232.00 +2.00 232.00 +2.00 228.00 unch 2008 |
## 3043 02/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit easier today, reflecting last night's sharp decline in soymeal values in Chicago. Some improvement in new crop rapeseed production prospects in the EU may also be a factor, although rapemeal asking prices still look historically expensive relative to soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 318.00 -2.00 312.00 -2.00 310.00 -2.00 228.00 -4.00 228.00 -4.00 228.00 -4.00 225.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3050 22/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad lower for once, in light consolidation after posting very strong gains over the past week, encouraged perhaps by a softer tone to the soymeal market Friday night and again this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 322.00 -1.00 315.00 -1.00 238.00 -1.00 239.00 +1.00 239.00 unch 237.00 unch 2008 |
## 3052 23/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today, consolidating from recent steep gains. Nearby availability remains tight though on reduced crushings, but demand is starting to wane as the weather improves. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: Unq n/a 316.00 -6.00 313.00 -2.00 235.00 -3.00 235.00 -4.00 235.00 -4.00 233.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 3054 24/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain steady nearby, supported by tight availability, but the further forward positions are finally showing signs of cracking. Hopes that the worst is over for new crop potential and an improvement in prospects for US soybean production in 2013 leave few wanting to commit to forward purchases at these levels. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 317.00 +1.00 311.00 -2.00 234.00 -1.00 233.00 -2.00 233.00 -2.00 231.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3064 15/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to firm, with gains of between EUR2-5/tonne today. Crop development in the UK remains well behind normal. Take a look at this picture posted on Twitter with one farmer's field of rapeseed this morning on the right and the same field this time last year on the left. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 297.00 +3.00 295.00 +5.00 291.00 +4.00 226.00 +2.00 229.00 +3.00 229.00 +2.00 227.00 +3.00 unq n/a 2008 |
## 3067 16/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a little firmer again on old crop, and slightly weaker on new crop. The unexpected prolonging of the winter feeding season, and reduced crusher output due to depressed margins, is keeping nearby availability tight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 297.00 +2.00 293.00 +2.00 225.00 -1.00 226.00 -3.00 228.00 -1.00 225.00 -2.00 unq n/a 2008 |
## 3070 17/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher again today, extending a remarkable run, with May 13 now up EUR27/tonne since the beginning of the month and new crop Nov13/Apr14 EUR16/tonne in the same period. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: Unq n/a 305.00 +7.00 302.00 +9.00 231.00 +6.00 232.00 +6.00 232.00 +4.00 229.00 +4.00 unq n/a 2008 |
## 3072 13/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today. Old crop availability remains tight on lower production due to downtime and poor crush margins due to depressed demand for rapeseed oil. There are enough uncertainties surrounding new crop rapeseed production potential to put a floor under new crop prices for the time being. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 305.00 unch 300.00 unch 295.00 unch 226.00 +1.00 224.00 unch 224.00 unch 221.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3077 18/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher once more, extending an extraordinary run that's seen prices rise almost 40 euros on old crop May/Jul 13 since the beginning of the month. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a Unq n/a 313.00 +10.00 237.00 +6.00 237.00 +5.00 237.00 +5.00 235.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 3080 19/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent just keep on rising on seasonal tightness in availability due to plant downtime and a slump in rapeseed oil prices. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: Unq n/a 323.00 n/a 316.00 +5.00 239.00 +2.00 238.00 +1.00 239.00 +2.00 237.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3086 08/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, supported by reduced production due to low crush margins on old crop, and for new crop on adverse weather conditions leading to production concerns for the 2013 harvest. Higher soymeal prices overnight also add support. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 286.00 +3.00 279.00 +4.00 277.00 +7.00 214.00 +2.00 216.00 +1.00 216.00 +1.00 214.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3089 09/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today, garnering support from adverse weather conditions in Europe extending the feeding season and also potentially harming 2013 yields. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 288.00 +2.00 283.00 +4.00 279.00 +2.00 218.00 +4.00 220.00 +4.00 221.00 +5.00 219.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 3094 10/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again on strong demand and tight availability on old crop. New crop gains on EU rapeseed production concerns. Spot material now not offered. May/Jul up EUR14.00/tonne since Friday. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 288.00 +5.00 284.00 +5.00 222.00 +4.00 224.00 +4.00 225.00 +4.00 223.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 3097 11/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change today. MDA CropCast held their forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2013/14 unchanged from last week at 18.56 MMT, up almost 3% on last year. Crops in the UK and France should finally see some warmer temperatures this weekend. This will help to finally accelerate rapeseed growth across the continent. Also, showers are beginning to return to France and Germany, which will improve soil moisture there, they say. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 292.00 n/a 288.00 unch 285.00 +1.00 222.00 unch 224.00 unch 225.00 unch 220.00 -3.00 205.00 n/a 2008 |
## 3100 12/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again today, with Apr 13 now showing gains EUR11/tonne on the week, May 13 is up EUR15/tonne and new crop Aug/Oct 13up EUR12/tonne compared with last Friday. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 294.00 +2.00 290.00 +2.00 287.00 +2.00 224.00 +2.00 226.00 +2.00 227.00 +2.00 224.00 +4.00 208.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 3106 03/04/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to give up some of their recent very strong gains in light of the sharp decline in soymeal values in Chicago over the last few sessions. Some of the protection that had been built into prices due to thin trade and market closures over Easter also seems to now be being taken back out. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 284.00 -1.00 273.00 -5.00 268.00 -6.00 209.00 -3.00 212.00 -4.00 212.00 -5.00 210.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 3114 25/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are generally a little easier today, in line with a softer tone to Chicago soymeal values on Friday which has been carried through into overnight trade. The EU Commission's MARS unit released their first estimates on 2013 yields today, pegging the average EU-27 rapeseed yield at 4.86 MT/ha, a fall of over 9% on last year. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 277.00 unch 261.00 -1.50 211.00 -1.00 212.00 -2.00 212.00 -3.00 210.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3118 26/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher today. Soymeal values in Chicago were firmer last night and again this morning. There may also be some concerns for EU rapeseed yields this year following a difficult growing season so far in the UK and France. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 281.00 +4.00 266.00 +5.00 213.00 +2.00 216.00 +4.00 216.00 +4.00 214.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 3132 19/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent continue to slide reflecting recent losses in Chicago soymeal and a general lack of fresh demand. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 271.00 unch 249.50 -1.50 204.00 -1.00 207.00 -1.00 207.00 -1.00 206.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3136 20/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are generally steadier today, in line with overnight gains in Chicago soymeal. The current widespread cold snap across much of Europe may not be helping winter OSR too much either. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 272.00 +1.00 252.50 +3.00 206.00 +2.00 208.00 +1.00 208.00 +1.00 206.00 unch 2008 |
## 3141 21/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher, rebounding from recent lows, as soybean and meal values in Chicago finally regain some traction. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 275.00 +3.00 257.50 +5.00 210.00 +4.00 212.00 +4.00 212.00 +4.00 212.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 3147 11/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. There's concern over how this week's sub-zero temperatures might affect winter OSR, particularly in the UK and France. Nearby meal is supported by the large front-end premiums in the soya market. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 285.00 +2.00 277.00 +1.00 255.00 -2.00 212.00 +1.00 214.00 +2.00 214.00 unch 214.00 unch 2008 |
## 3151 12/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are weaker, mirroring overnight losses in Chicago soymeal and a general lack of demand. End user buying is light despite what is traditionally a very busy month demand-wise. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 282.00 -3.00 276.00 -1.00 253.00 -2.00 209.00 -3.00 212.00 -2.00 213.00 -1.00 210.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 3156 13/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower today. Nearby March 13 is doing it's best to buck the trend, but demand is as limited as supply. Further forward positions are showing signs of starting to crack. Growers in Ukraine are becoming increasingly bullish on new crop production prospects. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 282.00 unch 273.00 -3.00 251.00 -2.00 208.00 -1.00 210.00 -2.00 210.00 -3.00 207.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3159 14/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little weaker, in line with overnight losses in Chicago soymeal and the general lack of demand. Even nearby March is now showing signs of capitulation. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 277.00 -5.00 272.00 -1.00 252.00 +1.00 207.00 -1.00 210.00 unch 210.00 unch 206.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3163 15/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat today. Nearby March is unquoted, apart from that only the May/Jul14 position shows any change. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 272.00 unch 252.00 unch 207.00 unch 210.00 unch 210.00 unch 208.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3165 04/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat nearby, and a little bit weaker further forward today. Trading activity is light. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 285.00 unch 282.00 unch 261.00 -1.50 210.00 -1.00 213.00 -1.00 213.00 -1.00 212.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3171 05/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little firmer today, following decent gains in Chicago soymeal last night which have been added to in overnight trade, although demand remains sluggish. ABARES released their first estimates on Australian crop production for 2013/14 today, pegging the rapeseed crop there at 2.945 MMT, a drop of 4.7% with plantings seen falling 11%. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 286.00 +1.00 282.00 unch 262.00 +1.00 212.00 +2.00 214.00 +1.00 214.00 +1.00 214.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3174 07/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, new crop looks a little firmer on worries that the EU rapeseed crop might not hit ABARES forecast of 19.6 MMT from earlier in the week with a severe cold snap expected across much of Europe next week. MDA CropCast see EU rapeseed production falling to 17.84 MMT in 2013/14, which is well below demand of typically 22-23 MMT. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 283.00 -1.00 279.00 -1.00 259.00 +1.00 211.00 unch 214.00 +1.00 214.00 +1.00 214.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3175 06/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are weaker today amidst a distinct lack of buying interest. Crushers are well sold but resellers are finding orders unusually hard to come by for March. Maybe the forecast cold snap a week from now might stimulate some interest? To view a temperature departure from normal map for Europe for Mar 13-21 courtesy of World Ag Weather click Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 284.00 -2.00 280.00 -2.00 258.00 -4.00 211.00 -1.00 213.00 -1.00 213.00 -1.00 213.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3183 08/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged to a little weaker today as buying interest remains light. A very tight nearby physical soymeal market is keeping spot material steady with crushers well sold. Little trade is expected with today's USDA report now resheduled for release as European markets close. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 283.00 unch 276.00 -3.00 257.00 -2.00 211.00 unch 212.00 -2.00 214.00 unch 214.00 unch 2008 |
## 3186 25/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are easier, in line with sharp losses in Chicago soymeal values on Friday night, although some of these losses have been tempered in the overnight market which sees soymeal levels around USD3 firmer. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 284.00 -3.00 280.00 -3.00 262.00 -2.00 208.00 -3.00 211.00 -2.00 211.00 -2.00 211.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3191 26/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower for a second day, following further losses in Chicago soymeal last night and again in follow through trade this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 281.00 -3.00 278.00 -2.00 259.00 -3.00 206.00 -2.00 210.00 -1.00 210.00 -1.00 210.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3193 27/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat to slightly firmer today, aided by a steadier tone to soymeal values in overnight Globex trade. Nearby availability remains tight, although buyers are generally well covered until the spring. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 281.00 unch 279.00 +1.00 259.00 unch 209.00 +3.00 211.00 +1.00 211.00 +1.00 211.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3196 28/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are narrowly mixed this morning. Modest gains in Chicago soymeal last night and again this morning support. Nearby availability remains tight from the crushers, although consumers seem well covered for now. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 282.00 +1.00 278.00 -1.00 259.00 unch 210.00 +1.00 211.00 unch 212.00 +1.00 212.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3199 01/03/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer today, following decent gains in Chicago soymeal last night (although some of those gains have subsequently been given up in overnight trade). Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 285.00 +3.00 282.00 +4.00 262.50 +3.50 211.00 +1.00 214.00 +3.00 214.00 +2.00 214.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3203 18/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly firmer today. The nearby market remains tight with offers for Feb delivery are still withdrawn. With US markets closed for President's Day there's maybe a bit of protection being built in today. French and UK rapeseed production prospects are questionable, keeping new crop prices steady. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 278.00 unch 274.00 +2.00 254.00 +3.00 206.00 +3.00 208.00 +2.00 208.00 +2.00 208.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3205 19/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again, following overnight gains in Chicago soymeal. The dogs are barking that all is not well with the French rapeseed crop, ditto ours in the UK. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 280.00 +2.00 278.00 +4.00 256.00 +2.00 207.00 +1.00 210.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 210.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3209 20/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent remain fully steady. Steep gains last night in Chicago soymeal values are supportive. Nearby availability remains tight although consumers seem adequately covered until May. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 284.00 +4.00 279.00 +1.00 259.00 +3.00 209.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 211.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3211 21/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly firmer again, following last night's gains in Chicago soymeal. The nearby market remains particularly tight with no offers for Feb collection and Mar up EUR7.00/tonne in the past week. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 285.00 +1.00 282.00 +3.00 261.00 +2.00 210.00 +1.00 212.00 unch 213.00 +1.00 212.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3218 11/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a tad weaker, but reflecting nothing like the declines we've seen on soymeal since Friday's USDA WASDE report came out. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 285.00 n/a 280.00 -3.00 278.00 -3.00 254.00 unch 202.00 -5.00 208.00 -2.00 208.00 -2.00 208.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3220 14/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, but with new crop mostly a little firmer, on concerns over rapeseed production in western Europe this year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 302.00 -3.00 300.00 unch 295.00 unch 227.00 +1.00 225.00 +1.00 225.00 +1.00 222.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3222 12/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower today, playing catch-up with the recent slump in soymeal values in Chicago. Nearby availability remains tight, with offers for Feb delivery now withdrawn. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 280.00 unch 276.00 -2.00 252.00 -2.00 203.00 +1.00 206.00 -2.00 206.00 -2.00 206.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3225 13/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged to a tad weaker, doing their best to ignore the very sharp declines that we've seen on soymeal values since Friday's USDA WASDE report. Seed availability is tight, lowering the EU crush and constricting meal availability. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 279.00 -1.00 276.00 unch 250.00 -2.00 203.00 unch 206.00 unch 206.00 unch 206.00 unch 2008 |
## 3228 14/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today. The nearby market remains tight on a reduced crush, and offers for Feb delivery are still withdrawn. Uncertainty clouds EU rapeseed production prospects for 2013, although it's generally agreed that output in France will decline on lower plantings and unfavourable weather. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 278.00 -1.00 273.00 -3.00 251.00 +1.00 203.00 unch 207.00 +1.00 207.00 +1.00 207.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3232 15/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today. Seed prices on the Paris futures market also show little alteration from yesterday. Nearby availability remains tight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 278.00 unch 272.00 -1.00 251.00 unch 203.00 unch 206.00 -1.00 206.00 -1.00 206.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3235 04/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, following steadier Chicago soymeal after weekend rains in Argentina disappointed. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 281.00 +4.00 277.00 +3.00 275.00 +4.00 251.00 +4.00 206.00 +4.00 210.00 +4.00 210.00 +4.00 210.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 3237 05/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer across the board again today, mirroring gains in soymeal values in Chicago last night and again this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 285.00 +4.00 280.00 +3.00 280.00 +5.00 254.00 +3.00 208.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 213.00 +3.00 213.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 3241 06/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer again, extending their recent bullish run although most gains in Chicago soymeal values last night have been subsequently eroded in overnight trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 286.00 +1.00 283.00 +3.00 281.00 +1.00 256.00 +2.00 209.00 +1.00 212.00 unch 212.00 -1.00 212.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3245 07/02/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower today, in line with a slump in soymeal values in Chicago last night and again this morning. Nearby availability remains tight. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: unq n/a 283.00 unch 281.00 unch 254.00 -2.00 207.00 -2.00 210.00 -2.00 210.00 -2.00 210.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3261 30/01/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a little higher in old crop monthss following decent gains last night and again this morning in Chicago soymeal. Reports of vessels already backing up in Brazil waiting to load soybeans and corn look like keeping nearby premiums in the market for some time. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 275.00 +2.00 270.00 +3.00 244.00 +2.00 201.00 -1.00 203.00 -1.00 205.00 +1.00 203.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3262 31/01/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are generally a little firmer today, mirroring gains in soymeal values in Chicago last night. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 275.00 unch 273.00 +2.00 271.00 +1.00 247.00 +3.00 202.00 +1.00 206.00 +3.00 206.00 +1.00 204.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3365 15/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit easier today. Old crop demand is slackening off, and new crop rapeseed production prospects are improving with widespread rains falling across the UK, northern France and western Germany. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 300.00 -2.00 297.00 -3.00 290.00 -5.00 225.00 -2.00 224.00 -1.00 224.00 -1.00 222.00 unch 2008 |
## 3435 04/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, following overnight gains in the electronic Globex soymeal market. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 294.00 +2.00 294.00 +1.00 296.00 +2.00 294.00 +2.00 267.00 +4.00 224.00 +1.00 228.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3436 03/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today with Chicago markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. UK rapemeal is up almost GBP60/tonne in the past 12 weeks, mimicing gains in soymeal which is up by more than GBP100/tonne in the same period. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 292.00 unch 293.00 unch 294.00 unch 292.00 unch 263.00 +1.00 223.00 +1.00 227.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3441 05/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, a bit weaker nearby and a little steadier in the discounted forward positions. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 290.00 -4.00 292.00 -2.00 295.00 -1.00 294.00 unch 269.00 +2.00 227.00 +3.00 230.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3464 10/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change to begin the week. Friday's modest losses in Chicago soymeal have largely been erased by corresponding gains in the overnight electronic market. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 284.00 -1.00 285.00 -2.00 290.00 unch 289.00 +1.00 264.00 unch 222.00 unch 225.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3469 11/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower following last night's losses in Chicago soymeal, harvest pressure and slack seasonal demand. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 280.00 -4.00 285.00 unch 288.00 -2.00 287.00 -2.00 260.00 -4.00 220.00 -2.00 222.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3474 12/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed. Last night's losses in Chicago soymeal have largely been erased by gains in the overnight electronic market this morning. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 282.00 +2.00 284.00 -1.00 288.00 unch 288.00 +1.00 263.00 +3.00 220.00 unch 223.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3475 16/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, with the main feature of note being changes in the Jul 13 position as it adjusts to being somewhere between old and new crop. DRV said yesterday that the German rapeseed crop would come in at 5.36 MMT this year, an increase of 11.6% on last year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 300.00 unch 296.00 -1.00 284.00 -6.00 274.00 -16.00 226.00 +1.00 225.00 +1.00 225.00 +1.00 222.00 unch 2008 |
## 3478 13/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher following strong gains in last night's losses in Chicago soymeal after a bullish slant for soybean production in yesterday's USDA crop report. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 286.00 +4.00 289.00 +5.00 293.00 +5.00 293.00 +5.00 266.00 +3.00 224.00 +4.00 226.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 3483 14/09/12 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher today, in line with gains in Chicago soymeal overnight and a firm tone to seed prices. Guide prices, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous session: 290.00 +4.00 292.00 +3.00 294.00 +1.00 294.00 +1.00 269.00 +3.00 223.00 -1.00 225.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3644 26/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today, consolidating from recent gains in line with a mini correction in Chicago soymeal values overnight. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 236.00 n/a 232.00 +1.00 216.00 -2.00 206.00 -4.00 209.00 -3.00 212.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3658 13/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little easier on old crop, and flat to slightly higher on new crop today. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 231.00 -1.00 231.00 -1.00 230.00 -1.00 215.00 -2.00 209.00 +1.00 210.00 unch 211.00 unch 2008 |
## 3662 14/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today. The HGCA forecast the UK OSR area up 3% on last year at 740,000 ha, the second highest on record. Winter sown crops look far better than they did this time a year ago, so optimism should be high for a sharp rebound in production in 2014 even if it is early days yet. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 229.00 -2.00 230.00 -1.00 229.00 -1.00 214.00 -1.00 205.00 -4.00 208.00 -2.00 208.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3677 04/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today, following some pretty steep declines in Chicago soymeal values on Friday night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 232.00 -3.00 230.00 -4.00 228.00 -4.00 215.00 -4.00 208.00 -1.00 210.00 -2.00 210.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 3680 05/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are easier for a second day running. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 230.00 -2.00 229.00 -1.00 228.00 unch 212.00 -3.00 205.00 -3.00 209.00 -1.00 209.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3683 06/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower today. The market feels a little bit toppy but that could all change on Friday when the USDA's November WASDE report comes out. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 231.00 +1.00 229.00 unch 226.00 -2.00 211.00 -1.00 204.00 -1.00 206.00 -3.00 206.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3693 04/12/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today, with the exception of the nears which are displaying their usual sign of seasonal tightness in availability that we often get at this time of year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 245.00 +3.00 236.00 unch 220.00 -1.00 210.00 +1.00 212.00 unch 213.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3703 18/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board today, although not fully mirroring the extent of the declines witnessed in Chicago soymeal on Friday night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 224.00 -2.00 224.00 -2.00 224.00 -2.00 209.00 -3.00 198.00 -5.00 203.00 -3.00 206.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3706 19/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are unchanged on the nears, and mostly a little firmer further forward today. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 224.00 unch 224.00 unch 224.00 unch 212.00 +3.00 202.00 +4.00 204.00 +1.00 204.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3711 21/11/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit firmer on the nears and unchanged on the forwards today (unlike here in the UK where they are a lot firmer on the nears). Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 226.00 +2.00 226.00 +2.00 225.00 +1.00 212.00 unch 202.00 unch 204.00 unch 204.00 unch 2008 |
## 3716 07/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are flat to slightly weaker today. Soymeal values in Chicago were the biggest winners out of a basket of grain futures last week, posting gains of 2.7% week-on-week, versus beans losing 1.9% and soyoil shedding 3.6%. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 220.00 unch 223.00 unch 223.00 unch 215.00 -2.00 206.00 -2.00 208.00 -4.00 2008 |
## 3726 10/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little firmer, mirroring stronger soymeal values in Chicago and Europe, despite the outlook for a record world OSR crop this year. Informa Economics now peg global OSR output at 68.7 MMT, up from 66.8 MMT previously and the USDA's September forecast of 66.5 MMT. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 221.00 +1.00 223.00 +2.00 223.00 +2.00 215.00 -1.00 206.00 +2.00 210.00 unch 2008 |
## 3731 16/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent firmer across the board, despite a weaker tone to soymeal values, on ideas that prices are simply cheap in relation to soya. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 215.00 +5.00 217.00 +4.00 222.00 +4.00 223.00 +4.00 221.00 +4.00 208.00 +2.00 215.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3734 17/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent have given up yesterday's gains, and in some cases a bit more, following a sharp slide in soybean/meal values in Chicago last night, although those prices have recovered a little this morning. Could today's FSA numbers be a game changer though? They just might. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 212.00 -3.00 214.00 -3.00 217.00 -5.00 216.00 -7.00 216.00 -5.00 207.00 -1.00 214.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3738 18/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent little changed today, although rapeseed prices are weaker again on the MATIF market. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 213.00 +1.00 214.00 unch 217.00 unch 217.00 unch 216.00 unch 206.00 -1.00 211.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3742 19/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are barely changed today. Rapemeal prices are cheap relative to soymeal, but there's only so much a compounder can squeeze into the ration. Demand for rapeseed oil remains slack, so meal production is not what it might be though. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 213.00 unch 214.00 unch 218.00 +1.00 218.00 +1.00 216.00 unch 206.00 unch 211.00 unch 2008 |
## 3749 29/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent down today, in line with steep losses in Chicago soymeal values last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 236.00 -4.00 235.00 -4.00 232.00 -7.00 218.00 -6.00 209.00 -3.00 212.00 -3.00 214.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3753 30/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today, despite further declines in Chicago soymeal values last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 234.00 -1.00 234.00 +2.00 218.00 unch 208.00 -1.00 212.00 unch 214.00 unch 2008 |
## 3757 31/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent show little change today. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 235.00 n/a 234.00 unch 232.00 -2.00 219.00 +1.00 209.00 +1.00 212.00 unch 214.00 unch 2008 |
## 3763 21/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer across the board again today, continuing with the recent theme, even though soymeal values in Chicago were down on Friday. As a percentage of soymeal cost, rapemeal prices now offer the worst value they have for 12 weeks. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 235.00 +6.00 234.00 +8.00 225.00 +8.00 212.00 +5.00 215.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 3766 22/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, CBOT soymeal was firmer last night but is weaker in overnight trade offering little in the way of direction. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: Unq n/a 235.00 unch 234.00 unch 223.00 -2.00 213.00 +1.00 216.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 3770 23/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad lower. Despite recent talk of an EU climb-down, Reuters are now reporting that the EU has agreed to slap a huge import duty on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia who account for 90% of EU biodiesel imports ( ). That should mean that Europe would produce more rapemeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 235.00 unch 234.00 -1.00 233.00 -1.00 222.00 -1.00 212.00 -1.00 215.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3773 24/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher versus yesterday morning. Prices began to rise mid-morning yesterday on short covering and talk of mills switching out of rapeseed crushing and into more profitable lines such as soy or sunseed. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 244.00 +9.00 242.00 +8.00 242.00 +9.00 228.00 +6.00 216.00 +4.00 220.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 3781 14/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed on old crop, and a bit weaker on new crop to start the week. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 223.00 unch 222.00 unch 216.00 +1.00 204.00 -2.00 207.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3785 16/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a touch easier today, after Chicago soymeal values fell USD5/tonne last night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 225.00 n/a 224.00 unch 221.00 -2.00 215.00 -1.00 203.00 -3.00 208.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3788 17/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little firmer today, following a steadier tone to last night's CBOT soymeal market which has followed through into overnight trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 230.00 +5.00 229.00 +5.00 226.00 +5.00 217.00 +2.00 207.00 +4.00 211.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 3801 01/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are 3-4 euros/tonne lower today following last night's bearish USDA report for soybeans. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 212.00 -3.00 214.00 -4.00 214.00 -4.00 212.00 -3.00 200.00 -3.00 206.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3805 02/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed today, a touch steadier nearby and a bit weaker further forward. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 213.00 +1.00 215.00 +1.00 215.00 +1.00 210.00 -2.00 198.00 -2.00 204.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3809 04/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, following strong gains in soymeal values in Chicago last night, although there's been a bit of a correction there in the overnight trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 220.00 +3.00 223.00 +3.00 223.00 +3.00 217.00 +2.00 208.00 +3.00 212.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 3813 03/10/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer on the back of yesterday's news that Europe is considering slapping an anti-dumping tariff on biodiesel imports from the dirty cheating Argies and Indonesian rainforest clearing conglomerates. That will potentially support the bleatings on the European biodiesel industry (which can't make a profit otherwise), and create more demand for EU biodiesel not the dirty stinking stuff that the Argies keep sending us. Hence demand for home produced rapeseed and oil here will rise. Therefore we will produce more meal. Therefore the price of it will go up. It's all to do with the inverse crush basis fibonacci head and shoulders dead cat bounce. It's not a con. Repeat slowly after me... This...is...not...a...con...it's...market...forces...and...the...dead...cat...thingy. There you go, we'll make a trader out of you yet sunshine! Bless, now off you go for that right-handed glass hammer. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 217.00 +4.00 220.00 +5.00 220.00 +5.00 215.00 +5.00 205.00 +7.00 210.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 3830 12/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are higher across the board on ideas that these levels are cheap on a percentage basis relative to soymeal. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 210.00 +6.00 213.00 +5.00 218.00 +3.00 219.00 +4.00 217.00 +4.00 206.00 +4.00 213.00 +6.00 2008 |
## 3831 11/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent a bit firmer today, consolidating a little from some steep losses yesterday. Informa are forecasting a record world OSR crop of 65.2 MMT this year, led by a jump of 18% in Canada and a European crop 7% higher than last year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 204.00 +2.00 208.00 +2.00 215.00 +2.00 215.00 +1.00 213.00 +1.00 202.00 +1.00 207.00 unch 2008 |
## 3842 02/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer today, possibly with a bit of added protection built in as the US markets enjoy a long weekend, with today being Labor Day. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 unch 221.00 +1.00 225.00 +2.00 226.00 +3.00 225.00 +5.00 212.00 +5.00 219.00 +7.00 2008 |
## 3847 03/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a bit firmer today, although they are nowhere near reflecting substantial USD20 gains in soymeal overnight on the back of continued weather concerns for soybeans in the US. Strategie Grains have increased their forecasts for EU-28 rapeseed and sunseed production this year to 20.8 MMT and 8.4 MMT respectively. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 220.00 +2.00 222.00 +1.00 227.00 +2.00 228.00 +2.00 224.00 -1.00 212.00 unch 219.00 unch 2008 |
## 3851 04/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are generally a tad easier today, following a weaker tone to the protein sector that began mid-afternoon yesterday and has followed through into morning trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 -2.00 220.00 -2.00 227.00 unch 227.00 -2.00 224.00 unch 212.00 unch 218.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3854 05/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board today. Paris rapeseed futures were down hard last night, and that momentum has carried through into morning trade. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 215.00 -3.00 218.00 -2.00 222.00 -5.00 223.00 -4.00 221.00 -3.00 208.00 -4.00 213.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 3862 06/09/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board today, despite a firmer tone to last night's soymeal market in Chicago. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 205.00 -10.00 210.00 -8.00 218.00 -4.00 218.00 -5.00 216.00 -5.00 207.00 -1.00 212.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 3865 27/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher following steep gains in Chicago soymeal values in the last two sessions. Unfortunately, as we were all on a day off here in the UK yesterday I don't have Monday's prices to offer a direct comparison, but front month Aug 13 is up EUR17/tonne versus Friday, with Nov13/Jan14 up EUR12/tonne. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 227.00 n/a 227.00 n/a 229.00 n/a 230.00 n/a 232.00 n/a 229.00 n/a 219.00 n/a 225.00 n/a 2008 |
## 3875 28/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little lower, consolidating from some steep gains in the past couple of days. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 224.00 -3.00 228.00 -1.00 230.00 unch 231.00 -1.00 228.00 -1.00 215.00 -4.00 222.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3879 29/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent lower today on ideas that recent price hikes have been overdone. Consumers appear well-covered nearby and end-user demand is seasonably light. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 220.00 -4.00 224.00 -4.00 226.00 -4.00 227.00 -4.00 224.00 -4.00 213.00 -2.00 220.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 3886 30/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower for a third day. Soymeal prices are lower in overnight trade, and the world's 2013/14 rapeseed crop will be a record 64.8 MMT, according to Oil World. Total global oilseed output in 2013/14 will also break all previous records, they add. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 218.00 -2.00 220.00 -4.00 223.00 -3.00 223.00 -4.00 220.00 -4.00 207.00 -6.00 212.00 -8.00 2008 |
## 3895 21/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher today. I'm not too sure why given that soymeal was down USD6.50 in Chicago last night. One thing that does strike me, having only just got back off holiday, is that the nearby premium that was in the market before I went away has completely disappeared. Aug13 was an EUR8/tonne premium to Nov13/Jan14 when I was last in the office, and today not much more than two weeks later it's an EUR8/tonne discount. That's quite a turnaround in a fortnight n'est pas? Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 201.00 +6.00 203.00 +5.00 205.00 +5.00 209.00 +5.00 209.00 +6.00 208.00 +5.00 199.00 +6.00 205.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 3904 23/08/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad lower, following some steep gains in the past couple of days. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 210.00 -2.00 210.00 -2.00 213.00 -2.00 218.00 unch 218.00 unch 217.00 -2.00 208.00 +3.00 213.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3933 29/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, lower nearby and a bit firmer further forward, essentially taking away some more of this front-end premium much as soymeal has been doing in Chicago in recent sessions. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 225.00 -10.00 212.00 -4.00 208.00 -4.00 206.00 -4.00 200.00 +3.00 197.00 +2.00 195.00 +3.00 184.00 +4.00 2008 |
## 3957 22/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly firmer today, with the exception of nearby July, which continues to fall to realign itself closer to new crop levels. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 255.00 -5.00 234.00 +2.00 228.00 +3.00 216.00 +2.00 214.00 +2.00 212.00 +2.00 192.00 unch 2008 |
## 3961 23/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly lower today, despite a precipitous rise in Chicago soymeal values last night and again this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 260.00 +5.00 234.00 unch 225.00 -3.00 214.00 -2.00 212.00 -2.00 210.00 -2.00 195.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 3964 24/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower across the board, following declines in CBOT soymeal values last night and on impending harvesting of the EU 2013 rapeseed crop. Harvesting in Ukraine is nearing completion, and the crop looks like being more than 50% up on last year's levels. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 256.00 -4.00 230.00 -4.00 223.00 -2.00 220.00 -5.00 210.00 -4.00 208.00 -4.00 206.00 -4.00 190.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 3977 15/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today, although not as much as they might have been given steep declines in Chicago soymeal values on Friday night. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 260.00 -9.00 227.00 -1.00 221.00 -2.00 214.00 -3.00 212.00 -3.00 210.00 -3.00 193.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 3993 09/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly unchanged, with a couple of small adjustments to the nearby positions as July and Aug attempt to converge a bit closer together. The French Farm Ministry estimate OSR production there this year will fall 18.5% to 4.4 MMT. German output however is expected to rise 21% to 5.8 MMT, according to Oil World, as the two countries swap places at the head of the EU-28 rapeseed production table. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 280.00 n/a 270.00 -5.00 224.00 +3.00 215.00 unch 210.00 unch 208.00 unch 205.00 unch 190.00 unch 2008 |
## 3996 10/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly firmer, in line with strong gains in Chicago soymeal values last night and a rebound in Rapeseed values in the past week or so on the MATIF after futures prices fell below EUR400/tonne for the first time since October 2010. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 275.00 -5.00 270.00 unch 227.00 +3.00 219.00 +4.00 215.00 +5.00 213.00 +5.00 210.00 +5.00 195.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 4000 11/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a bit firmer, chasing gains in CBOT soymeal values last night. It's likely to be a quiet day as traders sit tight ahead of this afternoon's USDA report. The Czech Stats Office estimate rapeseed yields there up 13% this year at 3.13 MT/ha. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 269.00 -1.00 228.00 +1.00 223.00 +4.00 217.00 +2.00 215.00 +2.00 213.00 +2.00 196.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 4007 01/07/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are lower today. Nearby FH Jul has now slumped over EUR20/tonne in two days as old crop falls to meet new crop, even so it's still at a hefty near EUR80/tonne premium to Aug/Oct so more losses can be expected. US farmers will/have planted a record 77.7 million acres of soybeans the USDA tell us. The trade thinks that it's probably higher than that too. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 302.00 -6.00 292.00 -2.00 223.00 -3.00 213.00 -3.00 211.00 -3.00 210.00 -2.00 194.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 4025 25/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly weaker again today after rapeseed futures in Paris dipped to their lowest levels since late 2010 last night. Not that meal prices are anything like that low mind. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 315.00 unch 233.00 -1.00 224.00 unch 216.00 -1.00 213.00 -2.00 213.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 4028 26/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly steadier today, in line with last night's gains in Chicago soymeal. Rapeseed prices however are completely on their arse, around EUR5/tonne lower on the French market again this morning, with Paris futures now threatening to break below EUR400/tonne for the first time since October 2010. Topefer say that Germany's rapeseed crop will jump more than 19% this year to a second-highest on record 5.75 MMT. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 323.00 +2.00 303.00 +2.00 227.00 +3.00 217.00 +1.00 215.00 +2.00 213.00 unch 199.00 unch 2008 |
## 4034 27/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little weaker today. Rapeseed futures in Paris have dipped below EUR400/tonne across the board this afternoon, with front month Aug 13 down more than 9% since the beginning of the month. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 323.00 unch 303.00 unch 223.00 -4.00 215.00 -2.00 214.00 -1.00 212.00 -1.00 199.00 unch 2008 |
## 4039 17/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly weaker, with the exception of nearby old crop which remains tight on seasonal shut-downs. Prospects for 2013 rapeseed production across Europe look a little brighter. Since the beginning of the month the Nov 13 Paris rapeseed future is down over 20 euros, yet the price of meal on the continent is unchanged in this time, meal in Erith is up GBP3/tonne and meal in Liverpool up GBP5/tonne during the same period! The pound meanwhile has improved, up around a cent against the euro (and over 5 cents versus the dollar) over the course of the month so far. Hmmmm.... Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a unq n/a 312.00 +6.00 239.00 -1.00 230.00 -2.00 228.00 -2.00 226.00 -3.00 206.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 4044 18/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little easier today following losses in soymeal values in the US last night, and warmer and drier in the weather in Europe improving new crop production prospects. AgriFood Canada estimate canola production there at 14.1 MMT this year, an increase of 6% on last year, despite a fall in planted area as yields rebound to more like normal levels. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a unq n.a 313.00 +1.00 236.00 -3.00 227.00 -3.00 225.00 -3.00 223.00 -3.00 207.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 4048 19/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little easier today. Drier and much warmer weather across most of the continent is seen as beneficial for crop development. New crop French OSR is offered at EUR417/tonne (GBP358/tonne equivalent) for July delivery FOB Moselle. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 328.00 n/a 312.00 -1.00 236.00 unch 225.00 -2.00 224.00 -1.00 222.00 -1.00 206.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 4051 10/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are firmer, despite seed values being down on the French MATIF market today. Soybean and meal markets are also weaker in overnight trade. Oil World have trimmed slightly their forecast for the global rapeseed crop in 2013/14 to 63.4 MMT, although that's still a record and up 1.3% on last year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 320.00 n/a 317.00 +5.00 299.00 +5.00 244.00 +5.00 238.00 +3.00 237.00 +3.00 235.00 +5.00 211.00 +3.00 2008 |
## 4058 11/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a bit easier today following losses in soymeal values in the US last night. The French farm ministry forecast the 2013 winter rapeseed crop there at 4.5 MT, down 17.2% on last year, according to a report on Reuters this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 314.00 -3.00 300.00 +1.00 238.00 -6.00 236.00 -2.00 234.00 -3.00 232.00 -3.00 210.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 4069 03/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are sharply higher today, in line with strong gains in CBOT soymeal on Friday night which have followed through into morning trade. A wet weekend on the continent may have caused some crop damage, with localised flooding being reported in the south of Germany. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 306.00 +16.00 300.00 +15.00 295.00 +15.00 241.00 +8.00 237.00 +8.00 236.00 +8.00 233.00 +9.00 213.00 n/a 2008 |
## 4074 04/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mixed, with old crop months sharply higher for a second session in a row, although buyers are few and far between. Possibly this is on the back of German flooding and in anticipation that this year's harvest is going to be later than normal? New crop prices are easier, taking out some of the protection built in yesterday, in line with losses in overnight soymeal values. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 312.00 +6.00 310.00 +10.00 290.00 -5.00 240.00 -1.00 236.00 -1.00 234.00 -2.00 230.00 -3.00 210.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 4079 05/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are up nearby as flooding on the Rhine, Elbe and Danube disrupts barge movements. New crop sees little change. The 2013 rapeseed harvest in Eastern Europe is expected to be underway within a couple of weeks. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 313.00 +1.00 310.00 unch 292.00 +2.00 240.00 unch 236.00 unch 234.00 unch 230.00 unch 215.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 4080 06/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent today are little changed, with new crop a euro or so easier. MDA CropCast forecast the world OSR crop unchanged from last week at 59.0 MMT, up 5.5% on last year, with the Europena crop up 5.2% at 19 MMT. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 313.00 unch 310.00 unch 294.00 +2.00 239.00 -1.00 235.00 -1.00 233.00 -1.00 230.00 unch 213.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 4081 07/06/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are little changed today. Nearby positions remain tight due to flooding/season closures. A clearer picture of any possible damage to new crop rapeseed in southern Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic is needed before we can expect new crop months to show signs of cracking. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 312.00 +2.00 294.00 unch 239.00 unch 235.00 unch 234.00 +1.00 230.00 unch 208.00 -5.00 2008 |
## 4092 30/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a bit weaker on old crop and a little firmer on new crop positions today. Concerns over new crop rapeseed production in the UK and France remain. Toepfer estimate the 2013 UK rapeseed crop at 1.88 MMT, down 27% on last year. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 288.00 -2.00 284.00 -1.00 280.00 +2.00 231.00 +3.00 228.00 +2.00 227.00 +2.00 223.00 unch 2008 |
## 4095 31/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent a bit firmer today, although buyers are few and far between. MDA CropCast yesterday estimated the EU rapeseed crop in 2013 at 18.98 MMT versus 18.04 MMT in 2012. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: unq n/a 290.00 +2.00 285.00 +1.00 unq n/a 233.00 +2.00 229.00 +1.00 228.00 +1.00 224.00 +1.00 2008 |
## 4104 21/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a little steadier today, following gains in Chicago soymeal values last night. Trade is quiet however, with consumers content to sit on their hands for the time being. Rapemeal quotes look expensive when taken as a percentage of value of soymeal, and particularly so given the potentially bearish outlook for new crop soymeal prices. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 298.00 -1.00 296.00 +1.00 288.00 +3.00 278.00 +3.00 228.00 +1.00 226.00 +1.00 226.00 +1.00 224.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 4109 24/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent mixed, generally a bit weaker on old crop and a little firmer on new crop. Reports filtering through suggest that maybe French rapeseed crops are in worse shape than thought. Prospects in Germany and Ukraine however look good. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 292.00 -1.00 292.00 -1.00 285.00 -2.00 278.00 unch 227.00 +1.00 225.00 +1.00 224.00 +3.00 222.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 4110 22/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are around a euro lower today in thin trade. Prices still look overvalued relative to soyameal going forward, keeping end-user buying interest to a minimum. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 295.00 -3.00 294.00 -2.00 287.00 -1.00 277.00 -1.00 227.00 -1.00 225.00 -1.00 225.00 -1.00 223.00 -1.00 2008 |
## 4112 23/05/13 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are mostly a tad easier today as crop conditions improve in France and Germany. Even so one French analyst pegged the 2013 rapeseed crop there at only 4.5-4.8 MMT versus 5.5 MMT last year and the 5.2 MMT recently estimated by the USDA Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 293.00 -2.00 293.00 -1.00 287.00 unch 278.00 +1.00 226.00 -1.00 224.00 -1.00 221.00 -4.00 220.00 -3.00 2008 |
## 4130 29/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've also convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 197.00 +2.00 156.50 +1.25 202.00 +3.50 160.50 +2.50 206.00 +4.00 163.75 +3.00 207.00 +4.00 164.50 +2.75 207.00 +4.00 164.50 +2.75 203.00 +3.00 161.50 +2.25 28/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too, just to see whether you are justified in feeling like you've accidentally wandered into the set of filming of Deliverance 2: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 195.00 +1.00 155.25 +1.00 198.50 +1.50 158.00 +1.25 202.00 +2.00 160.75 +1.75 203.00 +2.00 161.75 +1.75 203.00 +2.00 161.75 +1.75 200.00 +3.00 159.25 +2.50 EUR CHG STG 194.00 -1.00 154.25 197.00 unch 156.75 200.00 -1.00 159.00 201.00 -1.00 160.00 201.00 -1.00 160.00 197.00 -2.00 156.75 25/08/14 -- Re the ProFarmer yield estimates released on Friday, in which they pegged US corn and soybean yields and production in 2014 at record levels, albeit maybe not quite so high as some were expecting. For what its worth, I did a little bit of research into recent tour estimates, and it's maybe worth noting that they've been on the low side for both corn and beans the previous couple of years, we have to go back to 2011 to find estimates that were pretty close to the final USDA figures. In 2013 they pegged US corn yields at 154.1 bu/acre, with production at 13.46 billion bushels. The final USDA numbers were 158.8 and 13.925 respectively - meaning ProFarmer were 3% under on yields and 3.5% under on production in August that year. For beans in 2013 they said 41.8 and 3.158 versus a final USDA estimate of 43.3 and 3.289 billion - 3.6% under on yields and 4.1% under on production. It was a similar story in 2012: Corn 120.25/10.478 versus final figures from the USDA of 123.4/10.780 - 2.6% and 2.9% under respectively; for beans 34.8/2.692 versus 39.8/3.034 - 14.4% and 12.7% underestimated. Of course it's much harder to predict final yields now than it is after the event but the point is that on the evidence of the last two years there's the potential for final yields and production to ultimately come in significantly better still than even the record levels indicated by ProFarmer on Friday night. Just sayin' !! 2008 |
## 4262 10/09/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've also convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too, which takes into account any subsequent currency changes: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 197.00 unch 158.90 +1.30 203.00 +1.00 163.70 +2.10 203.00 -1.00 163.70 +0.50 204.00 -1.00 164.50 +0.50 203.00 -2.00 163.70 -0.30 198.00 -1.00 159.70 +0.50 2008 |
## 4269 01/09/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too. The values in the sterling change column may not match those in the euro change column due on currency fluctuations: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 197.00 unch 155.75 -0.75 203.00 +1.00 160.50 unch 205.00 -1.00 161.25 -2.50 207.00 unch 163.75 -0.75 207.00 unch 163.75 -0.75 202.00 -1.00 159.75 -1.75 2008 |
## 4278 04/09/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've also convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 197.00 unch 157.50 unch 202.00 unch 161.50 unch 204.00 -1.00 163.00 -0.75 204.00 -2.00 163.00 -1.50 204.00 -2.00 163.00 -1.50 200.00 -2.00 159.75 -1.50 2008 |
## 4290 27/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, the last column converts these to approximate sterling values: EUR CHG STG 194.00 -1.00 154.25 197.00 unch 156.75 200.00 -1.00 159.00 201.00 -1.00 160.00 201.00 -1.00 160.00 197.00 -2.00 156.75 2008 |
## 4294 28/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too, just to see whether you are justified in feeling like you've accidentally wandered into the set of filming of Deliverance 2: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 195.00 +1.00 155.25 +1.00 198.50 +1.50 158.00 +1.25 202.00 +2.00 160.75 +1.75 203.00 +2.00 161.75 +1.75 203.00 +2.00 161.75 +1.75 200.00 +3.00 159.25 +2.50 2008 |
## 4296 29/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session. For your own personal interest, I've also convert these to approximate sterling equivalent values too: EUR EUR CHG STG STG CHG 197.00 +2.00 156.50 +1.25 202.00 +3.50 160.50 +2.50 206.00 +4.00 163.75 +3.00 207.00 +4.00 164.50 +2.75 207.00 +4.00 164.50 +2.75 203.00 +3.00 161.50 +2.25 2008 |
## 4301 19/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 196.00 +3.00 198.00 +2.00 200.00 +2.00 201.00 +1.00 201.00 +1.00 198.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 4304 20/08/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 191.00 -5.00 195.00 -3.00 197.50 -2.50 199.00 -2.00 199.00 -2.00 196.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 4349 23/07/14 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 188.00 +3.00 187.00 +3.00 190.00 +3.00 190.00 +2.00 190.00 +3.00 189.00 +5.00 2008 |
## 4355 24/07/14 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are a bit firmer, in line with higher soymeal levels last night and again this morning. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 192.00 +4.00 192.00 +5.00 196.00 +6.00 197.00 +7.00 197.00 +7.00 191.00 +2.00 2008 |
## 4544 24/03/14 -- Rapemeal prices on the continent are fully steady on the nears, helped by a firmer tone to the overnight soya market. New crop prices are a little weaker on the outlook for increased 2014 EU-28 production estimates in the weeks ahead. Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne, with change from previous trading session: 293.00 +7.00 290.00 +4.00 279.00 +5.00 228.00 -1.00 228.00 -1.00 228.00 -2.00 2008 |
## 4798 04/05/15 -- Latest guide prices for EU rapemeal today, basis FOB Lower Rhine in euros/metric tonne: 2008 |or covering of events.
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "noggers", n = 2) %>%
select(., c(link, title, article))## link
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## 481 Early Call On Chicago
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## article
## 481 07/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher with wheat up around 8c, beans 9-10c firmer and corn around 3c higher. Egypt bought three cargoes of wheat over the weekend, sharing their business around between Australia, Argentina and the US. That would indeed suggest that for now they are buying only normal amounts. News that Algeria is back again tendering for more wheat today is possibly more bullish than news out of Egypt. The Algerians have already bought at least 1.75 MMT of wheat, and possibly more like 2 MMT including durum wheat, in the past four or five weeks. Iraq, Bangladesh and Turkey have got the chequebook out too, so there's no shortage of wheat buyers even at these levels. A second cold front is due to hit the US this week, which may damage winter wheat although it also brings with it the chance of a protective snow covering. If we do finish higher tonight, and that's what the early call is, then we may see a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow on profit-taking ahead of the USDA's Feb WASDE report out on Wednesday. That said, the trade is expecting the USDA to further tighten US ending stocks of corn and soybeans, so it wouldn't be too difficult to envisage the rally to re-extending itself later in the week after those ar out. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4c; beans up 8-10c; wheat up 8-10c. 2008 |
## 486 08/02/11 -- The overnight grains were lower across the board on news that China was to raise interest rates again for the third time since October. The latest rise, by a quarter percentage point like the other two, comes a day before Chinese markets are expected to return to normal following the Lunar New Year celebrations. Crude oil and other commodities also fell on the back of the news. It has to be noted though that the previous two rate rises seem to have done little to hurt demand from China, and it would come as no surprise at all to see everything back up again by the end of the week. Before that we have the USDA out with a plethora of data of their own tomorrow, so some book squaring liquidation tonight is highly likely, especially given the size of the fund long positions. Trade estimates for tomorrow's US 2010/11 ending stocks estimates see corn forecast at 736 million bushels (from 745m last month and 1.708 billion at the end of 2009/10), soybeans at 135 million (140m; 151m) and wheat at 810 million (818m: 976m). There may be increases for Brazilian soya production, and maybe a downwards revision for Argentina some are thinking. The USDA attaché in Argentina last week dropped their Argy soybean production estimate to 49 MMT, from the USDA's current 50.5 MMT. They also pegged corn production there at 22 MMT, also 1.5 MMT lower than the USDA themselves said last month. Tensions in Egypt seem to have eased somewhat. They bought 170,000 MT of wheat over the weekend, Turkey are in for 300,000 MT after Iraq bought a similar quantity yesterday and then immediately re-tendered for a further 100,000 MT. Algeria and Bangladesh are also in the market, with suggestions that Saudi Arabia & Iran might be next in line to get on the wheat buying merry-go-round. No sign of price rationing demand too much there just yet then. Northern China may get some light rain this week, but 2-3mm isn't going to be a drought buster. Another Arctic blast is on the cards for most of the US this week, with only the PNW coast getting away with anything like normal temperatures. Winterkill could again be a problem in areas without a protective snow covering. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10c, corn down 5-6c, wheat down 5-7c. 2008 |
## 500 10/02/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed to mostly lower with wheat down around 6-8c, and corn/beans a cent higher to a cent lower. Weekly export sales from the USDA were strong for corn and in line with expectations for beans and wheat. Corn sales were 1.2 MMT old crop and 104,500 MT new crop against forecasts of 750-950 TMT. Bean sales were only 20,800 old crop but 950 TMT new crop versus trade ideas of 800 TMT-1 MMT. Wheat sales were 391 TMT old crop and 116 TMT new crop (forecasts of 500-700 TMT). Japan bought 165 TMT of wheat in it's regular Thursday tender with the majority of that US wheat. Afghanistan has become the latest buyer to enter the ring, tendering for 200,000 MT of wheat. It looks like Argentina's crop prospects are improving, so too are those in Brazil where a record soybean crop looks likely to be on the cards. In the US Plains, extreme cold overnight will give way to a rapid warm up by the weekend. QT Weather predict temperatures in the upper 60's in Oklahoma by Sunday night, a stunning contrast to the all-time state record low of -27 set this morning! China got some snow this week, but drought in the north is said to be expanding. Europe and Australia are warming up, the Black Sea is looking pretty good under a blanket of snow but India is hot and dry. The grains aren't getting too much support from outside markets today, crude is lower as ideas fade of any acute disruptions to supplies via the Suez Canal. The dollar is firmer and Wall Street expected to start lower. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn mixed, wheat 5-7c easier. 2008 |
## 506 11/02/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with wheat 2-3c higher, corn 1-2c lower and beans fractions either side. The markets maybe haven't moved as much as you might think this week. On the week as a whole so far we see CBOT March wheat up 9 cents, March corn up 20 cents and March soybeans down 1/2 cent. Egypt has bought another three cargoes of wheat today, split between the US, Canada and Australia. South Korea has bought 55,000 MT of Canadian wheat and Tunisia is tendering for 50,000 MT. South Korea have also bought 55,000 MT of US corn and Mexico have booked 210,000 MT of the same. The wheat market may be a tad disappointed that US grain hasn't won a larger share of Egypt's business this week. The political situation there took another twist yesterday with Mubarak's resignation speech turning out to be anything but. South American weather looks non-threatening, and a potential record soybean crop could be on the cards from there, with Brazil more than compensating for any shortfall out of Argentina. The Indian wheat harvest will soon be upon us, with a record 82 MMT crop expected. The Chinese weather outlook is improving, with significant precipitation in the 7-10 day outlook for wheat and rapeseed crops in central and southern areas, according to QT Weather. Things look a little tired today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the market drift lower on lack of enthusiasm to push the button ahead of the weekend. Early calls are wheat 1-3c higher, corn and beans mixed 2c higher to 2c lower. 2008 |
## 517 01/03/11 -- The overnights closed mixed with beans generally around 5-6c higher, wheat down 4-5c and corn only fractions either way. News is thin on the ground although that doesn't mean that the arrival of a new month won't bring with it fresh money inflows. Crude oil is firmer and the dollar weaker, which may also provide some support. South American soybean production estimates are creeping higher with private analyst Michael Cordonnier yesterday upping his Argy crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to 48.5 MMT. Despite persistent rain the Brazilian harvest is moving on at 19% complete as of last Friday. That's slightly ahead of average, although behind last year's early pace. ABARES confirm that the Australian wheat crop was a record 26.3 MMT in 2010, but output may fall 2 MMT in 2011 as this season's bumper yields fall back to more normal levels. It will be interesting to see how things pan out as the wet weather in the east may mean that the crop gets off to a better start than normal. Don't forget too that if we hadn't had a bad drought in WA then we'd have been looking at a national crop in excess of 30 MMT in 2010. ABARES also say that the world will produce 675 MMT of wheat in 2011. Japan is shopping for 129,000 MT of all US wheat on Thursday. China sold only 165 TMT of the 1.2 MMT of corn on offer at this week's government auction. They remain conspicuous by their absence from the export market. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to up 1c, beans up 5-7c, wheat down 2-5c. 2008 |
## 521 02/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with beans around 12-14c higher, corn up 2-4c and wheat mostly 2-5c weaker. Rain in some of the parched US Plains and China was behind wheat's mini fall from grace. China's drought affected wheat area has now fallen to under 2 million hectares, according to latest reports. It was 7.5 million at the beginning of February. NYMEX crude is a dollar higher, now over USD100/barrel whilst Brent is currently around USD115.50/barrel. Beans are up on rain disruptions in Brazil. Oil World raised its Argy soybean production estimate to 48.5 MMT (up 0.5 MMT) and left their Brazilian output unchanged at a record 71.5-72.0 MMT. Argentina is seen dry this week, rain will be needed soon for soybean pod filling, say Martell Crop Projections. The USDA have confirmed the sale of 220,000 MT of US wheat to unknown. Private trade early estimates on US spring planting intentions will start to filter through in the next couple of weeks, before the USDA's initial stab at calling this season's acreage at the end of the month. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 12-15c, corn up 3-5c, wheat flat to up 2c. 2008 |
## 530 04/03/11 -- The overnights closed mixed, but mostly higher, with beans up 5-7c, corn up 3c to down 1c and wheat 6-9c firmer. There's some talk that not all of Argentina's soybean crop is looking too great. There are also reports of quality and potential yield issues in Brazil due to incessant rains. The USDA have confirmed a fresh sale of 120,000 MT of old crop beans to China today, indicating that they haven't switched their buying attention away to South America entirely. There are question marks over the health of US wheat as it emerges from winter dormancy, meanwhile Russian and Ukraine wheat areas have been dry and bitterly cold of late. There is also some talk of high US corn prices leading to more interest in wheat from the feed sector. Japan has announced the purchase of 150,000 MT of Brazilian corn overnight, switching interest away from the US due to high prices. NYMEX crude is up a dollar and a half. Reports suggest that Brazil is buying US ethanol. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 5-7c, corn flat to up 2c, wheat up 8-10c. 2008 |
## 542 22/02/11 -- The overnight grains were sharply lower with wheat down around 20c, corn around 10c easier and beans falling 15c or so. I have to say that I'm surprised by the overnight action, given that wheat was 10c higher when I left home early this morning, with beans and corn also showing significant gains. The situation in the Middle East is clearly giving the market the jitters. Crude is sharply higher with NYMEX up USD7/barrel, although we could attribute some of that to a narrowing of the gap between it and Brent which had widened to around USD15/barrel. At this exact moment in time it seems that the Middle East situation is causing a scramble for spec money to get out of grains. Ideas are that sharply higher crude oil prices may harm demand for grain. The market didn't see it that way back in 2008 though, and a change of inference could alter things at any moment. Morocco are in for 280,000 MT of wheat, joining Iraq who are tendering for 100,000 MT but are expected to buy more as they usually do. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 15-20c, beans down 12-15c and corn down 8-10c. 2008 |
## 546 24/02/11 -- The overnight grains were lower with wheat down around 4-6c, corn around 2-3c easier and beans falling 9-11c. Crude is higher again, although well off intraday highs, with NYMEX up USD2/barrel and Brent up USD3/barrel. Saudi Arabia has said that it can make up for any shortfall in production from Libya if necessary. The USDA Outlook Forum is underway, and they are pegging corn area at 92m acres, with bean plantings at a record 78m acres, both are around half a million higher than the average trade estimate. Both are in line with last month's baseline estimates. Also unchanged was the wheat area at 57m acres, although they dropped the harvested area by a million in light of the relatively poor over-wintering of the US crop. The IGC increased it's world 2010/11 wheat crop estimate by a million to 648 MMT today. Output in 2011/12 is seen rising 24 MMT, or 3.7%, to 672 MMT. It looks like this afternoon could easily go either way, although early calls are lower in line with the overnight session and anticipated further fund liquidation. Odd that funds pulling away can cause the market to fall so dramatically when their presence in the market has nothing to do with high prices, according to some. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 2-3c, wheat down 4-6c, beans down 8-10c. 2008 |
## 560 14/02/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with wheat up 8-12c, beans down 1c to up 2c and corn unchanged to up a half. Wheat led the pack on more concerns over China's winter crop in the Northern Plains, otherwise there wasn't too much fresh news. Crude oil is static around USD85.50/barrel. Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat and Iraq bought 200,000 MT of US and 150,000 MT of Australian wheat, bringing their total purchases to 850,000 MT so far this year. The USDA hold their annual Outlook conference next week when we get our first hints at how spring planting in the US might go, before we get the more official data at the end of March. Generally they've proven to be more accurate than some of the other early high profile private estimates over the past couple of years. At the moment of course all the talk is about the battle for acres - with corn at USD7/bushel and demand from the ethanol monster in full swing then a significant increase in corn plantings could be on the cards. The NOPA Jan soybean crush came in at 144.6 million bushels, matching expectations and still ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA's target for the 2010/11 season. Frost damage to Mexican corn is also in the headlights today with 1.5 million acres possibly affected and in need of replanting. To ensure that they don't run out of tacos they've just bought 145,000 MT of corn from the US today, along with 129,600 MT of sorghum. Chinese customs data shows Jan edible oil imports at 610,000 MT, 12% up on this time last year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn steady, beans down 1-2c, wheat up 9-11c. 2008 |
## 582 17/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed firmer with beans up around 12-13c, wheat 8-10c higher and corn up 7-9c. Consolidation from the recent break in prices was evident. Outside markets are offering few clues with the dollar, crude and equities little changed. Weekly export sales were strong, with corn topping 1 MMT for the third week running. Wheat also came in above expectations, but unknown new crop cancellations dragged beans a bit lower than trade ideas. South American weather looks largely non-threatening, the trade is becoming resigned to a record Brazilian soybean crop and the inevitable switch away of Chinese interest. Europe has removed it's duty on feed wheat and barley imports, which could pave the way for lower grade Australian, and possibly Ukraine wheat to make some inroads. Ukraine have recently increase the volume of wheat and corn it will allow for export in the current marketing year, and are talking about possibly removing quotas on corn altogether. The USDA have announced the sale of 101,600 MT of corn to Japan. China say that the winter wheat area under threat from drought has reduced slightly. Strategie Grains have trimmed their EU 2011 wheat, barley and corn crop production estimates slightly from last month, although all three are showing increases on last season's output. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12c, what up 8-10c, corn up 7-9c. 2008 |
## 587 18/02/11 -- The overnight grains were lower with wheat down around 12c, corn around 6c easier and beans falling 20c or so. Corn had hit a fresh 2 1/2 year high in early Globex trade before China took the wind out of the bulls sails by raising it's bank reserve requirement by 0.5% for the second time this year, in another attempt to curb rising inflation. It's a long weekend in the US with Monday being President's Day, thus record or near record fund length in wheat, corn and beans may encourage some money to be taken off the table today. India says it has planted a record wheat area this year, and is expecting a bumper crop. China has bought 125,000 MT of Australian feed wheat, bringing it's total purchases to date from that quarter to 375,000 MT. The USDA have confirmed the sale of 100,000 MT of US HRW wheat to Turkey, it is not clear if that is additional business to the 150,000 MT sale made earlier in the week. Mexico have also bought another 156,100 MT of corn, they add. There are rumblings coming out of Ukraine that a recent unseasonably warm spell, quickly followed by a return to sub-zero temperatures, may have caused some crop damage. China's wheat growing areas have seen crop conditions improve slightly this week, but some serious precipitation still needed to get this crop home. Heavy rains are disrupting the Brazilian soybean harvest, but a record 70 MMT or higher crop now seems assured. Argentina is more likely to have a crop of around 47-49 MMT according to most analysts estimates, some 5.5-7.5 MMT down on last year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 18-20c, corn down 6-8c and wheat down 10-12c. 2008 |
## 596 31/01/11 -- The overnight grains opened lower but closed firmer with wheat and beans around 10c higher and corn up 5-6c. The dollar is a bit lower and crude oil higher, both of which should add a bit of extra support. Egypt's President Mubarak gave his cabinet a vote of confidence by sacking the lot of them over the weekend. He also appointed military intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as his new right hand man. The market doesn't know what to make of the Egypt situation. It reminds me in a way of the Chernobyl disaster, the market was in a state of limbo for some time after that. Was it bullish or bearish, nobody could quite figure it out at the time either. Everyone knew if was either very bullish or very bearish, but they just couldn't figure out which it was. Egypt said over the weekend that it would continue to buy wheat normally and that it has six months worth of stocks at hand, and that is before the harvest kicks off in a couple of months. Ideas that it would follow Tunisia and Algeria in as forced buyers may therefore be misplaced. It could be that this civil unrest actually is bearish, if the world's largest wheat buyer stops buying for a while. A report on Dow Jones today says that operations at the country's ports have been suspended, quoting the General secretary of the Egyptian International Freight Forwarding Association. That doesn't sound bullish for wheat to me. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT each of wheat and barley. Good and widespread weekend rains in Argentina have alleviated some drought fears. Ongoing strikes and labour disruptions however are bullish for nearby months. In the US a major winter storm is brewing which will impact the the Central Plains eastwards through the Great Lakes, and eventually the Northeast. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 8 to 10 cents, corn up 5 to 7cents and wheat up 10 to 12 cents. 2008 |
## 608 02/02/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher, with wheat leading the way up around 12-14c. Beans were around 6-8c higher and corn up 5c or so. Outside markets are all lending support to grains, with metals, sugar and crude oil all hitting multi-year, if not record, highs. The dock workers strike in Argentina may drag on and off for some time yet in shades reminiscent of a couple of years ago. Unlike then, now we only have one of the Kirchners in control, and she is seen firmly digging her six inch stiletto heels in for fear of showing any signs of weakness. Her presidency is already on very shaky ground, and there are elections due in October. Breaking news suggests that the workers will call off their strike following a government order making the action unlawful. It seems highly unlikely to me that this will be the last word on the matter. Certainly against this kind of backdrop Argentina is not going to be topping may people's preferred seller of choice list. That potentially pushes more interest they way of the US. To add further unease to the markets we have the ongoing Egyptian unrest, a severe winter storm in the US and now a massive cyclone almost the size of America heading for Australia. On top of that it's hardly rained in Northern China since September. Effectively all this is creating a huge cocktail of uncertainty and nervousness. The dollar is weaker too, helping propel overnight corn and beans to 30-month highs. Despite New Year celebrations China has bought 440,000 MT of US beans overnight, according to the USDA. The wintry conditions in the US will delay the opening of CBOT pit trading until 10 am local time, or 4 pm here in the UK I understand. So trade could be a bit thin. Informa are out at 10.30 am local time with revised world crop production numbers. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 7 to 9 cent, corn up 4 to 6 cents and wheat up 13 to 15 cents 2008 |
## 628 24/01/11 -- The overnight grains closed firmer with the bulls nicely comfortable in a first class carriage supping Bollinger on this particular gravy train. Wheat finished with gains of around 7-10c, with beans up 6-8c and corn 1-3c higher. Heavy, possibly drought-busting, rains are in store for Argentina during the next fortnight. Will they arrive too late to be of much help for corn? Certainly they should aid beans, planting of which isn't even fully completed yet. The market seems to be ignoring this forecast though and concentrating on continued rains in Australia, dryness in China and extreme cold in the US. French wheat has set new three year highs as stocks dwindle, America has plenty - but there's no point giving it away is there? It's a sellers market. Buyers meanwhile are scratching each others eyes out to get to the front of the queue. The US EPA said that they will extend the recently announced E15 blend of 15% ethanol in gasoline to include vehicles built from the 2001 model year and later (from the 2007 upwards permitted in October). That's another shot in the arm for corn demand then. Not that it really needed it. China keep buying soybeans like they're the last iPad in the store and meanwhile the US wheat shop is the only one left open after the Australian one got flooded, the Russian one burnt down and the French one is only open between midnight and 12.01am. Oh, and guess what, that's right the USDA have just announced a sale of 114,000 MT of 2010/11 soybeans to a certain slightly jaundiced looking Far Eastern gentleman today. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 1-3c higher; beans 6-8c higher; wheat 8-10c higher. 2008 |
## 629 25/01/11 -- The overnight grains closed with double digit losses for beans and wheat, with corn not too far behind either. Beans finished around 12-14c lower, with wheat mostly in the region of 10-12 easier and corn down around 9c. Crude oil is also sharply lower, down USD1.21 to USD86.66/barrel, other outside markets like gold are also weaker. The dollar is a bit firmer too. It looks like another turnaround Tuesday for the time being, although the USDA is this afternoon reporting export sales of a whopping 2.74 MMT of new crop beans to China (note: this sale was initially and incorrectly reported as being old crop, which would have been far more significant). I can only assume that this was part of last week's showcase deal when the Chinese Premier was in town? There was also a sale of 114,000 MT of old crop beans to Taiwan. Talk of China upping interest rates before the start of its New Year celebrations seems to be encouraging profit-taking across commodities in general. Argentina is looking wetter, much wetter. today...the best rains of the growing season reach central growing areas leaving 10 day totals of 6-10 inches, say QT Weather. Drought persists in the North China Plain though, with no respite in sight. Get the bunting out because the Chinese government actually managed to sell some soybeans at today's auction, at 5,000 MT it was only 1.7% of what was on offer but it's a start. They also sold 153 TMT of the corn on offer, representing 8.5% of the total available. Argentine farmers have lifted their one week sales embargo, for now. They have issued the government with a two-week ultimatum to stop meddling with wheat exports. Here's another road we've been down before. With heavy fund long positions in place the market is always going to be vulnerable to a corrective slide, this afternoon it looks like we are going to get one of them. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans down 10 to 12 cents, corn down 8 to 10 cents and wheat down 10 to 12 cents 2008 |
## 635 26/01/11 -- The overnight grains closed firmer with wheat leading the way around 10c higher, with beans and corn both up around 6-8c. Algeria bought 800,000 MT of optional origin wheat in it's latest tender, bringing their purchases in the past four weeks to a suggested 1.8 MMT. Egypt hasn't tendered for anything yet this week, but are expected to make a move soon. Seeing as they import almost twice as much wheat as Algeria what might they be in for? The Egyptian stock market fell more than 6% to a six year low today on nervousness over what the press there are calling the Day of Anger. Iraq and Saudi Arabia are also tendering for significant volumes of wheat. China sold 164 TMT of wheat in today's government auction - more than last week but still only 3.6% of what was on offer. The USDA today reports 60,000 MT of old crop and 167,000 MT of new crop soybeans sold to China. Dock workers in the Argentine port of Rosario are striking. Grupo Bom Futuro, Brazil's largest soybean grower, says that it is standing aside of selling in anticipation of higher prices to come. Early calls for today's CBOT session: Beans up 8 to 10 cents, corn up 6 to 8 cents and wheat up 10 to 12 cents. 2008 |
## 644 27/01/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with beans and wheat flat to a cent lower and corn around 2c firmer. There's not much change on the grains, and little movement on the dollar or crude oil either. Weekly export sales from the USDA were robust for wheat, coming in above 1 MMT for the second week running. Bean sales weren't too far away from that total either, although corn sales were a tad under expectations. Soymeal sales were disappointing, and also US stocks were seen higher, which may pressure meal relative to beans and oil tonight. The wheat market is still all excited about North African and Middle Eastern buying. Bangladesh has also joined in the fun, tendering for 50,000 MT of wheat. The December soybean census crush was 153.05 million bushels, above the average estimate of 152.0 million. Argentine rains have arrived in force. The first five days of the latest wet weather regime has past in Argentina and it hasn’t disappointed. Two, three, and even some four inch totals have been seen in key central growing regions and another 10 days of unstable conditions are expected to continue, say QT Weather. The market still expects that this may have come a bit late for corn though. Chinese buying may slow down somewhat for their New Year celebrations. Things just feel a little jaded so far today. As ever large fund length leaves the market vulnerable to downside corrections on days like this. The bulls do after all need to be fed every day, they didn't get fed on Turnaround Tuesday and beans fell 30c. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Wheat and corn up 1-2 cents, soybeans down 1-2c. 2008 |
## 654 07/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with nearby months on beans flat to 3c higher, corn up 2-4c and wheat flat to a cent higher. Crude is up again as the Libyan situation shows no sign of getting resolved. Brent is currently up USD1.60/barrel and NYMEX up USD2.40/barrel. Dollar weakness may also lend some support to the grains today. Kansas winter wheat areas look set to get some moisture at long last where a developing storm will produce some badly needed precipitation. A wave of showers is moving through the state this morning. This will be following by heavy snow a 70-80% chance in the central-northern areas. The GFS model expects .75 inch of moisture in most of Kansas easing severe drought in the top US wheat state, say Martell Crop Projections. Spring wheat areas in the Northern US Plains and Western Canada remain cold and wet however, they warn. Iraq bought 400,000 MT of mostly US wheat over the weekend and Mexico booked 150,000 MT of corn. China says that it has far more wheat than the rest of the world thought - 100 MMT of the stuff no less - the markets reaction to that at the moment largely seems to be yeah right, who told you that again - Elvis or Sitting Bull? Looks like we may be in for a quiet couple of days ahead of Thursday's USDA figures. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 2-3c, corn up 2-4c, wheat up 1-3c. 2008 |
## 661 18/01/11 -- The overnight trade closed with wheat around 15c higher, corn up 4-6c and beans 3-6c lower. China may have cancelled a couple of soybean cargoes over the weekend due to negative crush margins, is one report doing the rounds which may explain beans performance this morning. Even so, they will import 4.55 MMT of the buggers this month, up from a previous estimate of 3.35 MMT, according to their commerce ministry. They only attracted buying interest for 174 TMT of corn in today's government auction apparently, less than 10% of what was on offer, and continuing with the recent trend. Japan are shopping for their regular weekly wheat tender, looking for 149 TMT of US/Canadian wheat. North Africa and Middle Eastern buyers are also in the market, with Algeria reported to have bought some 600,000 MT late last week, and rumoured to be still looking for more. They say that they are going to increase the amount of wheat that they sell at subsidised rates to local millers to help against food price inflation. The market seems to think that the government there are caught between a rock and a hard place and may attempt to buy their way out of trouble. Booking large quantities of wheat, even at these levels, may be one way of doing it. Of course they aren't the only African nation seeing such public reaction to the current situation, and others may also be forced into entering the market soon high prices or not. Argentina got some rain over the weekend, but the soybean and corn crops there are far from out of the woods yet. Brazil is faring somewhat better, apart from the extreme south. AgRural upped their Brazilian soybean estimate to a record 69.7 MMT yesterday. Argy farmers are on strike this week, disrupting grain supplies to the ports. It may only be a matter of time before dock workers decide to throw their tools down too if recent years are anything to go by. Drought remains a problem for wheat in the top US producing state of Kansas. The accumulated moisture from October 1 to January 15 was only 2.51 inches - just 56% of normal - according to Martell Crop Projections. The dollar is at or close to two month lows against both sterling and the euro. Concerns are mounting over the size of US government debt which has risen from USD7.6 trillion to USD14 trillion in the last five years. Are we in for a period of prolonged dollar weakness? If so dollar-denominated commodities could go higher yet. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Wheat up 13-15 cents, corn up 5-7, soybeans down 2-4. 2008 |
## 667 19/01/11 -- The overnight grains closed firmer, led by wheat which finished with gains of 10-14c and beans which were up around 16-17c. Corn was more of a follower ending 5-6c firmer. Wheat is up on heightened concerns over buying, indeed stockpiling, from North Africa and the Middle East. China only sold 3% of the wheat on offer in today's government auction, but right now that doesn't seem to matter. French wheat has set fresh contract highs as exports pick up again after a lull over Christmas and New Year. UK exports have already exceeded their target for the entire 2010/11 marketing year. Suddenly everybody wants to buy wheat, and they aren't too bothered what the price is as long as they get the order in the book. If it's like this now, what is it going to be like come spring when EU stocks start to get tight? Meanwhile Chinese wheat is too dry, and so too is US wheat on the Plains and Russian wheat in the south. China's state-owned entity Sinograin sold almost 84 MMT of domestic grains and oilseed stocks in 2010, according to local media reports. They apparently only bought less than 35 MMT on the local market with which to replace those sales. Suffice to say that leaves a large gaping hole in their strategic reserves. The market believes that they will start to plug that hole soon. Oil World have dropped their Argy soybean forecast to 46 MMT, 16% down on last season. Rains have become more widespread in Argentina over the last 48 hours, but many believe that the damage may have already been done, particularly in the case of corn. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 5-7c, beans up 15-17c, wheat up 13-15c. 2008 |
## 681 10/01/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed, but mostly higher, with beans generally up 4-6c, corn up 3-5c and wheat up 1-4c. Crude oil is higher on news of a major pipeline closure due to another leakage problem for BP, this time in Alaska. The dollar is also a bit firmer. Kansas weekend snowfall largely disappointed ahead of temperatures of 7-8F below zero forecast starting tonight. October-December precipitation in Kansas was around 40% below normal, Say Martell Crop Projections. US wheat was the cheapest on offer over the weekend in Egypt's latest tender. The USDA are out on Wednesday with their latest world supply and demand numbers, plus US quarterly stocks and wheat planting figures. Nervousness ahead of these numbers may limit upside potential over the next couple of sessions. One private firm now estimate Argy soybean production potential as unlikely to top 40 MMT, 12 MMT below the USDA's December number, with corn output also seen sharply lower. Meanwhile parts of Queensland reportedly got a foot of rain over the weekend, according to one radio report I heard. That will continue to cause logistical problems. Reports filtering through from NSW and Victoria continue to suggest bumper yields on wheat, barley and rapeseed although quality is still an issue. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn up 3-5c, beans up 5-7c, wheat up 2-4c. 2008 |
## 691 11/01/11 -- The overnights closed mostly firmer with beans and corn generally up around 3-5c and wheat around 5-8c firmer nearby. Crude oil is a bit firmer and the dollar a tad lower, both of which should help the grains complex. Brazilian farmers seem to like these soybean prices, they've sold 42% of their 2010/11 crop, well ahead of the 24% sold this time last year, according to Celeres. China sold only 164 TMT of the 1.77 MMT of corn on offer at today's government sponsored auction. No bids were again received for the soybeans on offer. Wheat will be auctioned tomorrow. The trade is divided over how much irreparable damage may have already been done in Argentina. Central areas remain largely dry although some beneficial rains have fallen in the south and east over the past few days. The North China Plain is in the grip of an acute drought too, with 50% of the nation's wheat crop affected. There are unconfirmed rumours doing the rounds again of Chinese buying interest in corn. The last time these did the circuit they were without foundation. Tomorrow's eagerly awaited USDA report should provide the direction in which we go for the next few weeks. The trade is expecting an increase in US wheat acres of anywhere from 2 million up to almost 6 million. They are also anticipating reduced US corn yields and production for 2010, combined with a decline in ending stocks for 2010/11. For beans US 2010 yields and production are seen broadly unchanged from last month although carryout is expected down on the back of strong exports. The USDA will also report on global production, with Argentine corn and soybean output most under the microscope. The precedent for them to react slowly to change whether up or down means that they may err on the side of caution. Last month they pegged corn output at 25 MMT and soybean production at 52 MMT. Revised figures of 23/24 MMT and 50/51 MMT might therefore be more likely than some of the other private estimates doing the rounds. Almost everybody is universally bullish, which is usually a worrisome sign. Downside risk is very limited, welcome to the new normal, many are now saying. Haven't we been here before? Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and beans up 3-5c, wheat up 6-8c. 2008 |
## 705 13/01/11 -- The overnights closed mostly firmer with corn leading the way in follow through trade from last night's strong close after the USDA released their bullish crop data. Corn finished the Globex session around 9-11c higher, with wheat and beans up 6-7c. Just to add to the underlying support for corn the USDA this afternoon reported the sale of 116.000 MT of US corn to unknown. The dollar is sharply weaker on jobs data, falling to around 1.5850 against the pound. Weekly export sales were in line with trade expectations for corn (507,500 MT) and soybeans (675,000 MT) but well under expectations of 400 - 500 TMT for wheat at only 175,200 MT. Wheat struggled to stay up with beans and corn last night and may perform similarly tonight on the back of those sales. The USDA didn't paint as bullish a picture for wheat as the others two yesterday either. Japan bought almost 120,000 MT of US wheat in its regular Thursday tender. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT of hard wheat today. All eyes remain on Argentina, the threat of drought there comes of course too late to affect wheat production, the USDA raised that by half a million tonnes yesterday, but it is right in the eye for corn and soybeans. The October-December rainfall in Argentina is tracking close to that of 2007, also a La Nina year, warn Martell Crop Projections. We will have to wait and see what happens in January with rainfall. This month's growing conditions would influence kernel-filling and late corn pollination. The next week's forecast is quite wet, they add. In Brazil things look much more promising apart from in southern RGDS where it's very dry. Further north, in Matto Grosso very early soybeans are already being harvested with decent yields. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 6 to 8 cents, corn up 8 to 10 cents, and wheat up 6 to 8 cents. Once again I'd expect corn and beans to lead the way and wheat to remain the laggard. 2008 |
## 717 14/01/11 -- The overnights closed lower, with wheat leading the way down 12-13c, beans off around 6c and corn 4-5c lower. It looks like time to take profits ahead fo a long weekend, it's Martin Luther King Day on Monday and the grains have had another good week. CBOT July wheat is up 16 1/2 cents on the week so far; March corn up 47 1/2 cents; March soybeans up 51 cents; Mar soymeal up USD20.90 and Mar soyoil up 89 points. China has raised it's reserve requirements again (for the seventh time in the recent past in fact), by 50 basis points this time as they continue to try to rein in inflation. Argentina is looking a bit wetter, yesterday's weekly export figures were ho-hum, crude oil is down the best part of a dollar. Chinese buyers may be looking to cancel DDGS shipments. The NOPA December soybean crush came below expectations at 149.4 million bushels, well below December 2009. Wheat again looks the weakest, with further widening expected on the differential between CBOT and KCBT/MGEX. It all looks a little tired heading into the weekend, opening calls are: Beans down 5 to 7 cents, corn down 4 to 6 cents and wheat down 10 to 14 cents 2008 |
## 724 03/01/11 -- The overnights closed with beans 2-4c higher, corn up 3-4c and wheat leading the way 15-20c firmer. Wheat is gaining on a continuation of Australia's woes and ideas that quality material is getting more and more scarce. Crude oil is a bit firmer and the dollar also slightly steadier. Globex wheat easily broke through the psychologically important USD8/bushel mark, with front month March ending at USD8.15/bu. European wheat futures were sharply higher in Paris, also lending some support. Contract highs were also set by Paris corn and rapeseed. In Argentina, corn and soybean production is under threat from dry conditions, with the best chance of decent rains a week away yet, according to QT Weather. Wheat producing areas in northern China are also too dry, as indeed are parts of the US Plains, there is talk too of a severe cold snap threatening winterkill on unprotected winter wheat in the Midwest. Egypt may import 10.2 MMT of wheat in the 2010/11 marketing year, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. That's 400,000 MT more than the USDA's latest estimate. Beans and corn traded lower for much of the overnight session, but got dragged higher by wheat towards the close. Early calls for this afternoon's first CBOT session of 2011: Wheat up 15-20c, corn up 2-4c, beans 1-3c higher. 2008 |
## 730 04/01/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans around 2-3c higher, and corn & wheat down 1-2c. Crude oil is slightly firmer and the dollar a bit weaker. Fresh news is somewhat limited. Some rain overnight in Argentina was reported, with the possibility of heavier rains later this week. Temperatures are also seen cooler than of late. Too much rain remains the problem in Australia. Quantity doesn't look like being an issue in the east, but quality and logistical problems do. Falling livestock numbers due to foot & mouth and bird flu, along with rising feed prices may be curbing feed demand in South Korea, according to some reports. Weekly export inspections from the USDA yesterday were pretty disappointing, although seasonal factors may have been at least partially to blame. A survey by Farm Futures Magazine pegs the final 2010 US corn crop at 12.406 billion bushels with a 153.2 bpa yield; bean output is seen at 3.392 billion bu on a 44.6 bpa yield. In December the USDA said that corn production was 12.539 billion bushels using a yield of 154.3 bpa. Soybean output was 3.375 billion bu on a 44.0 bpa yield. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower. 2008 |
## 736 05/01/11 -- The overnights closed lower pressured by outside influences with crude oil lower and the dollar firmer on better than expected jobs data. Beans closed around 5-7c lower, with corn down 6-7c and wheat 10-12c easier. The funds seem to be gearing up to sell grains starting Friday in what many of the newswires are calling rebalancing of positions to start the year. That is encouraging some of the smaller players to get out now, bank profits and sit on their hands for a few days. The fundamentals haven't changed a lot, you could even say they've maybe worsened this past few days with both the Argentine bean and corn crops being revised lower by private analysts. Certainly weather conditions in Australia haven't improved either. Concerns still remain for US wheat on the Plains too. The USDA are out next week with their latest revised WASDE and stocks numbers, plus winter wheat plantings. There's a fair bit of curve ball potential there, and that also may be encouraging some money exiting the market. Before that we've got the USDA's first weekly export sales report of 2011 due before the opening tomorrow. That could be a fairly subdued affair given that the period covered will be the week between Christmas and New Year. Looks like we could be going lower in the short-term ahead of next week's report. Don't be surprised though to see excessive weakness viewed as a buying opportunity, and all bets could be off again if the USDA throw in a shock or two next week. Let's face it they have form in this department. In last year's January report they raised US corn production for 2009 when was expecting a drop. Corn subsequently closed limit down. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn 5-7 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents lower. 2008 |
## 745 06/01/11 -- The overnight grains were mostly lower with beans and corn down 1-2c and wheat 5-7c lower. Crude oil is flirting either side of USD90/barrel and the US dollar is a bit firmer. No huge amounts of fresh news today, although reports continue to circulate of potential heavy fund selling as part of their rebalancing act starting Friday. Concern for winterkill potential in the US seems to be growing, with a very cold air mass likely to push as far south as Kansas and Oklahoma by the early part of next week. Conflicting reports continue to come out of Australia with regards wheat quality there, although few now seem to doubt that they have at least got the quantity side of the equation right. Argentine corn potential already looks to have been compromised with many estimates now around the 20 MMT mark from 25/26 MMT a month or two ago. Some analysts are now downgrading soybean forecasts too. Weekly export sales from the USDA were decent for wheat, OK-ish for beans and poor for corn, but it was a holiday week so maybe we shouldn't read too much into those. Palm oil is fully steady, having hit 34 month highs earlier in the week. Beans, corn and wheat are all close to very recent 28/29 month highs too at these levels, so some profit-taking may be in order ahead of next week's USDA reports. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn 2-3c lower, wheat down 5-7c. 2008 |
## 748 07/01/11 -- The overnights closed lower pressured by anticipated fund reweighting of contracts expected to start today. Beans finished around 8-12c lower, with corn down 3-4c and wheat generally 7-8c easier. On the week so far we see March CBOT wheat down 5 1/4 cents, March corn down 27 cents and March beans down 25 cents. It looks like long liquidation will be adding to those losses tonight. Dollar strength and nervousness ahead of next week's USDA reports may also add some downside pressure. So too may generally cooler and wetter forecasts for Argentina. China's Henan province remains very dry, with large parts of this wheat growing province reportedly having seen no rain since September, and the entire region getting 86% less rainfall in the last quarter of 2010 than in the same period twelve months previously. The Chinese sold most of the rapeseed oil on offer at today's government sponsored auction. The USDA have today reported the sale of 180,000 MT of US soybeans to China for 2010/11 delivery. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans down 7 to 10 cents, corn down 3 to 4 cents, and wheat down 6 to 8 cents. 2008 |
## 761 29/12/10 -- The overnights closed with beans down 6-7c, wheat generally 2-4c lower and corn mixed, and that is where the opening calls now are for this afternoon. Fresh news is limited, all three markets have posted impressive gains this month so a bit of year-end profit taking is probably more than overdue. Don't go expecting any wholesale exodus this week however, there seems to be a feeling that things can only move higher again come the new year. There's already talk of the Argie corn crop having suffered damage due to heat and lack of moisture, soybeans too also now seem to be under threat before the crop is even fully planted. Some forecasts today appear to be factoring in a bit more rain than yesterday however. Significant precipitation of greater than one inch will reach La Pampa and Buenos Aires 6 days from today (Jan 5-6). The best chance for rain farther north in the remainder of the humid Pampas is one day later (day 7), with 0.15-0.50 inches expected at 60% coverage. Another six days of dry weather is then seen, say QT Weather. The USDA have today reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China despite prices now pushing USD14/bushel. Mexico also bought a similar quantity of US corn. European grain futures hitting contract highs is adding support. The dollar and crude oil are both a little lower, although the latter is close to the highs of the year at over USD91/barrel. 2008 |
## 767 30/12/10 -- The overnight grains were mixed to mostly lower with wheat leading the way down 8-10c. Corn was down 2-3c and beans flat to up 1c. Crude oil is weaker at USD90.60/barrel and the US dollar is also down a tad. Nobody seems to be expecting too many fireworks today/tomorrow although there may be some modest booking of profits just in case weather forecasts change over the weekend. There's uncertainty surrounding precipitation chances on the US Plains and some forecasters are also citing a better chance of rains in Argentina than they were calling for yesterday. The USDA's weekly export sales didn't provide any major surprises, and the trade seems to be slipping into the weekend semi-comatosed already and looking forward to everything being back to normal next week. Respected South American analyst Michael Cordonnier is said to have cut his forecast for Argy soybean production by 1 MMT to 48 MMT today, citing irregular rains. The revised estimate is fully 4 MMT lower than the USDA's latest forecast. Bangladesh is in the market for 50,000 MT of wheat. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 1-2c, corn down 2-4c, wheat down 7-9c. 2008 |
## 779 20/12/10 -- The overnight grains began the week in bullish mood, with beans and wheat ending around 10-12c higher and corn up 4-5c. Crude oil is around half a dollar higher and the US dollar broadly unchanged. The outlook for Argentina is for the most part hot and dry. Weekend rains totalled 1-3 inches in Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero, 0.50-1.25in. in Entre Rios, and 0.15-0.60 in Cordoba, Buenos Aires and La Pampa, say QT Weather. The week ahead will see rains continue in the far north, with heat rebuilding and no rain until Thursday in the south. Temperatures will remain above normal reaching 95- 100 degrees most areas, they add. Mixed reports continue to come out of Australia, with some suggesting that the 50-60% downgrades to wheat in the east might be overstated. China has asked it's millers producers to cap flour prices until Chinese New Year in February. There are some ideas that this will lead to reduced demand for wheat, as we appear to be seeing with soybean demand after restrictions were introduce on soyoil prices. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12c, wheat up 8-10c, corn up 3-5c. Bearing in mind that a long holiday and month & year end is looming further profit-taking could be on the cards this week. Even if we do close higher tonight, then there's always turnaround Tuesday to look forward to tomorrow. 2008 |
## 802 13/12/10 -- The overnight grains were higher, it seems largely on the news that the Chinese didn't raise interest rates over the weekend. The did up lenders' reserve requirements again however, and also reported food price inflation running at 11.7% in November. Beans finished the overnight Globex session up 10-12c, with corn up 4-5c and wheat 5-6c higher. Argentina got some better than forecast rains over the weekend, with northern and central areas getting 1-2 inches over the past 72 hours, according to QT Weather. It's still too dry however in the south and the east. There is talk of eastern Australia finally getting some dryness to help speed up harvesting and dry some of that soaked wheat. Snow and freezing temperatures continue to hamper grain movement in the upper US. A ferocious winter storm hit the Upper Midwest on the weekend causing high winds and heavy snow, say Martell Crop Projections. Crude oil is back up above USD89/barrel as the cold snap in the US and Europe looks set to continue/resume later in the week. The dollar is also a bit weaker. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 10-12 cents, corn up 3-5 cents, wheat up 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 810 14/12/10 -- The overnight grains were mixed, with wheat mostly 5-7c lower, corn down 1-3c and beans up 1-2c. Crude oil is around half a dollar weaker and the USD is a touch easier too. It looks like another turnaround Tuesday is in store with profit-taking from last night and ahead of the year end on the cards. China's weekly government auctions weren't very well supported at all with beans attracting no bids whatsoever and only minimal interest in corn. With Chinese food price inflation now running at 11.7% and grain and oilseed prices at their highest since the food crisis of 2008 you have to start wondering if China's so-called insatiable appetite for grains can continue for much longer. Argentine weather prospects seem to have improved a little, although it's early days yet with more than a third of the soybean crop still to be planted. Corn plantings are well advanced. In the US, yesterday's November NOPA soybean crush was disappointing at 148.9 million bushels. The export inspections were also pretty insipid. Is it just me or is the market looking rather tired as we approach the last fortnight of 2010? Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 1-3c, wheat down 5-7c, beans up 1-3c. 2008 |
## 822 16/12/10 -- The overnight grains were mixed, with beans around 3-4c higher, corn up 2-3c and wheat down 1c to up 2c. Crude oil is slightly lower and the dollar a bit weaker too. Weekly export sales were robust for wheat, pretty decent for corn and very poor for soybeans. The economic situation in China seems to have them taking their foot off the import accelerator somewhat. The Chinese government's cap on vegoil prices appears to be leading to planned old crop bean imports being rescheduled as processors trim back production. The Senate passed the tax bill, but it still needs to pass the House. Assuming that it does then that's friendly for corn demand throughout 2011. The USDA have confirmed a sale of 150,000 MT of US wheat to Jordan. Having also sold 110,000 MT yesterday to Egypt, US wheat is clearly competitively priced into the Middle East despite a freight disadvantage. South American weather remains a concern, with Mato Grosso suddenly turning dry and the Argentina forecast turning hotter for next week, according to Martell Crop Projections. Things are improving for Australia, except in the cricket ;-) Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-3c, wheat fkat to up 2c, soybeans up 1-3c. 2008 |
## 833 06/12/10 -- The overnight grains were mixed, with wheat mostly 8-10c higher, but with corn down 4-5c and beans mixed either side. Wheat is up again on continued concerns over quality in Australia following another wet weekend and more to come in the week ahead. The differential between KCBT - the benchmark for quality wheat in the US - and CBOT wheat is currently at it's widest for 2 1/2 years. If you want quality the US is rapidly becoming the only shop in town with any stock left to sell. To underline that, the USDA have today reported the sale of 160,000 of US HRW wheat to unknown. They're also today reporting the sale of 171,000 MT of old crop and 55,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China, plus 20,000 MT of soyoil to unknown, along with 116,000 MT of old crop corn also to unknown. It remains too dry in eastern Argentina, with only scattered light showers in the forecast for the week ahead. Around 20% of China's wheat crop is also now said to be under drought stress, and the US crop on the Plains is far from perfect either. Corn is under a bit of pressure from ideas that the US blenders tax credit will not be renewed at the end of the month, as the Republicans flex their new-found muscles. The potential influx of up to 10 MMT of extra feed wheat onto the market from Australia is also a bearish factor. From here on in we can also expect to see profit-taking through to the end of the year as traders look to bank a few bonuses. Currently I'd say that things are still looking fairly favourable for further wheat price appreciation, moderately so for soybeans, but less so for corn (the ginger-haired step-child of the trio). Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Wheat up 8-10c, beans down 1-3c and corn 3-5c easier. 2008 |
## 847 08/12/10 -- The overnight grains were lower, but off session lows, with wheat mostly down around 8-12c, corn down 4-5c and soybeans off 8-10c. The dollar is up and crude oil is down and back below USD90/barrel. Not a lot has changed but it looks like we are in for some book-squaring ahead of Friday's USDA report, and with traders eyeing their year ends. US ending stock estimates for Friday's report in billion bushels are as follows: Avg Est Range 0.855 0.750-0.905 0.853 0.976 0.845 0.699-1.048 0.902 1.708 0.243 0.150-0.340 0.265 0.151 Despite the growing belief that the US may largely have the wheat export market in it's back pocket during the first half of 2011, ending stocks are seen fractionally higher than last month for some reason. Corn and soybean stocks meanwhile are seen falling, the former from increased ethanol usage. The latter on the back on continued strong demand from China, and possibly the late planting of the Argentine crop making demand for US beans last just that little bit longer. Ukraine have extended their export quota system up to the end of March. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans down 8 to 10 cents, corn down 4 to 5 cents, and wheat down 8 to 10 cents. 2008 |
## 862 29/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed mostly firmer but well off session highs, with beans around 2c higher, wheat up 4-5c and corn 2-3c firmer. Korean tensions seem to be easing after South Korea cancelled tomorrow's planned military exercise on the island attacked by the North. China has been vocal in it's determination to prevent things getting out of hand. Concerns over EU debt problems haven't gone away despite the EUR85 billion bailout for Ireland. A significant part of Argentine is dry and getting worse after weekend forecast rains disappointed, with QT Weather saying that this overly dry trend is going to continue for at least the next several weeks. There are also weather concerns for Australian wheat with persistent rains in the east proving to be a mixed blessing, delaying the harvest and potentially harming quality. The US wheat crop isn't out of the woods yet either. The USDA will report on crop conditions after tonight's close. There is widespread talk of Russia actively negotiating to buy grain from Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and beyond. There are also lots of ideas that spring plantings will not be able to fully compensate for the shortfall in what should have, but didn't, get planted in the winter. That would potentially seem to put Russia out of the export market, certainly as the kind of large volume seller we have become used to in the past few years, until the second half of 2012. China is also being mooted as a potential suitor for Argentine corn. Some reports also suggest that they bought more US soybeans over the weekend. The USDA have just announced the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 2-3 cents, corn up 1 to 2 cents, and wheat up 4 to 6 cents. 2008 |
## 869 30/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed narrowly mixed with beans and corn generally 1-2c lower and wheat either side of unchanged. The US dollar is firmer on risk aversion and crude oil is almost a dollar a barrel easier. Not a huge amount of fresh news, the US winter wheat crop neither declined nor improved as far as crop conditions were concerned last night, remaining at 47% good/excellent. Historically that is pretty low. China announced that it is re-exporting the 54,000 of US corn impounded for containing non-authorised GM strains back in September. COFCO say that this season's bumper corn crop will keep Chinese corn imports to a minimum in 2011, not what the trade had been expecting. Soybean imports however will increase by 1-3 MMT next year to 55-57 MMT, they say. Northern Argentina and southern Brazil still have dryness issues. Heavy rains in eastern Australia look like damaging wheat quality there, whilst the the harvest in WA is around two thirds complete. The USDA have just announced the sale of 165,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. It is of course month-end so there could be some book-squaring going on today. For the month of November as a whole we stand with March CBOT wheat down 66 3/4 cents; March corn down 41 3/4 cents; Jan soybeans down 1 cent. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and soybeans down 1-2c, wheat mixed. 2008 |
## 877 01/12/10 -- The overnight grains raced higher to start the month with wheat leading the way around 23-25c firmer, with corn up 8c or so and beans 16-18c higher. Crude is up almost a dollar and a half, and the US dollar is a bit weaker. News that China's manufacturing index posted a 7-month high last month was also seen as evidence that their economy is continuing to grow, boosting the longevity of demand for grains from that sector. Wheat is up on ideas that Australia's crop in the east is quickly becoming a wash-out, further tightening the global supply/demand picture for quality wheat. The flip side is that much of this downgraded wheat will likely soon be making it's way to Asia to replace corn in feed rations. Weather concerns also remain for US and Russian winter wheat. There are assorted wheat tenders kicking around, but the Egyptian one will as ever be the most closely watched. News on that is expected later this afternoon. Argentine dryness concerns are growing, with problems also in some areas of Brazil. At least one leading analysts has downgraded his soybean production forecasts for those two this week, with more downward revisions likely on the way - especially for the former. Any delays in plantings in South America will postpone China's inevitable switch away from buying US beans, tightening US ending stocks for 2010/11 even further. Malaysian palm oil values reached their highest levels in more than two years overnight. The February future in Kuala Lumpur broke through 3,500 ringgit for the first time since July 2008 on the strong export pace. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 20-25c; corn up 6-8c; soybeans up 16-18c. 2008 |
## 883 02/12/10 -- The overnight grains were mixed, with wheat ending 8-9c higher, beans 7-8c lower and corn down 3-4c. Wheat was up on the back of Australian weather woes, and large-scale crop downgrades. Heavy rain, flash flooding and hail hit Victoria this morning, with some places recording 12mm of rain in just ten minutes. More is forecast for tomorrow, with only a brief respite over the weekend before heavy rain and storms will again cross the state mid-next week. In South America, Argentine soybean plantings are well behind normal. November soybean rainfall was only 39% of normal in the key soy provinces, allowing little more than 50% of the crop to get planted and hampering germination. What rain has fallen has tended to be only in the form of light showers, certainly not the widespread soaking that growers there are hoping for. There are no such drenching rains in the forecast either, and temperatures are into the 90's next week. The USDA today reported wheat export sales of 663,300 MT for the 2010/11 marketing year, plus 40,900 MT for delivery in 2011/12. That is in line with expectations for sales of 500-700,000 MT. Soybean sales came in at 1.4 MMT, above trade expectations for sales of 1-1.3 MMT. Corn sales were in line with trade estimates at 758,100 MT. In addition to those sales the USDA today announced 135,000 MT of corn sold to Japan and 238,000 MT to unknown. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 7-9c; corn down 3-4c; beans down 6-8c. 2008 |
## 890 03/12/10 -- The overnight grains were firmer, led by wheat which posted gains of 17/22c. Corn finished 6/7c on spillover support from wheat, with beans up 7/8c. Considering that the world can ill-afford a weather problem in 2011, suddenly the market is like a punch-drunk boxer on the ropes, getting hit from all angles. Eastern Australia's wheat crop is in a mess, with talk of up to half of it only making feed grade. With Western Australia's crop slashed to around 3.5 MMT by drought, South Australia and east are expected to chip in with a wheat crop of around 20 MMT to make up the deficit. So we could be looking at taking up to 10 MMT out of the quality wheat supply chain for 2010/11. The US winter wheat crop is entering dormancy in the worst state for years. The USDA reported on crop conditions this side of spring for the last time on Monday, pegging only 47% of the crop in the good/excellent category, one of the lowest percentages in years. Now reports are circulating that around 9 million acres of China's principal wheat growing areas have been hit by drought. That's around 20% of the total planted area, and below average rainfall is expected to continue through to February. Taiwan bought US wheat today, reputedly paying just under USD550/tonne for 14% Dark Northern Spring wheat, that would have to be amongst the highest prices paid in a good while as Asian buyers scramble for quality wheat. Stats Canada peg all wheat production there this season at 23.2 MMT, 12.5% down on last year. Heavy spring flooding is also said to have taken it's toll on quality here too. La Nina seems to be throwing up more difficulties than El Nino ever did with Argentina also under threat from only scant rainfall, with soybean plantings only managing to reach 57% done this week, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Meanwhile Russia's sharply lower and late planted winter wheat acreage faces a testing few months, and there are serious concerns as to their ability to be able to pull-off their targeted big spring planting increases. For the week so far (excluding today's Globex markets) we see March CBOT wheat up 61 1/4 cents, Jan soybeans up 41 1/4 cents and March corn up 2 1/2 cents. Corn is clearly lagging on ideas that there may be 10 MMT more feed wheat on the market to tempt Asian buyers early in 2011. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn and beans up 8-10c, wheat up 20-25c. 2008 |
## 898 22/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed a tad firmer, although well off earlier highs, with beans around 10c higher and wheat & corn up a cent or so. Fresh news is fairly limited in what has so far been a muted start to the week. Ireland capitulated and got their bailout over the weekend, which has firmed the euro slightly. China announced that they are extending margin requirements on soymeal and soyoil trades on the Dalian stating tomorrow. The State Council have announced plans to help the poor face rising prices by increasing welfare payments. Dryness in Argentina remains a concern. Some rains on the US Plains may have improved winter wheat crop conditions, but much colder air is seen moving south from the Canadian Prairies later this week. That could bring an end to any growth left in wheat before dormancy kicks in. The USDA report tonight on US winter wheat crop conditions. It's a shortened trading week, with Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday. They have more time off than soft Mick over there, as my Dad would say. Friday will be an even shorter trading session than the half day they normally put in too! Not like in my day, two hours kip that's all we got then it was back on the floor, trading jackets for goalposts. You had to write your own trades up in those days. Always keep your pencil sharp, our book never closes David. That's what the boss always used to say, before he went off for a six hour lunch in Ma Boyle's obviously. Australia's wheat harvest will soon be in full swing, there's no fresh news there, with things remaining far too dry in the west and too wet in the east. Record crops are expected from the latter and miserable harvest results are on the cards from the former. The USDA have just announced the sale of 120,000 MT of wheat to Egypt by private traders. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 5-10c higher, corn up 1-2c and wheat up 2-4c. 2008 |
## 904 23/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed mostly lower with wheat and beans down 2-3c and corn 3-4c easier. The trade seems to be treading water looking for some fresh impetus from here. Up seems to be the path of least resistance, we're just waiting for the fireworks to start. The US dollar is firmer on a flight to safety as tensions escalate over the North and South Korea situation. Add to that lingering concerns over Ireland, Spain and Portugal too and that may provide a little downwards impetus this afternoon however, whilst the rest of us look for the matches. There does however seem to be a significant upside potential developing, even from these relatively lofty levels. The USDA upped wheat good/excellent conditions one point to an uninspiring 47% last night. Winter wheat in the top US producing state of Kansas is now a worrisome 26% poor/very poor. Argentina remains dry with the possibility of reduced crop production estimates on the way from that quarter in the not too distant future. Weather conditions in Russia are far from ideal, and are already seen almost inevitably having a negative impact on next season's crop. Don't go expecting them to be a force to be reckoned with in the export market until 2012. China keeps auctioning off the crown jewels adding rapeseed oil to it's regular grain sales this week, but sooner or later that particular well must run dry. Meanwhile Europe is now busy exporting what crown jewels that it has already sold off to less fortunate nations, whilst simultaneously smelting the remainder down to power the street lights. In short, the world is not very well placed at all for another major crop problem anywhere during 2011. Oh, have I mentioned La Nina yet? Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn down 2-4 cents, soybeans and wheat down 2-3c. 2008 |
## 924 25/11/10 -- A pretty confident unchanged across the board is the early call for this afternoon. For all you horse racing fans out there, have you ever noticed that on days when we are open and Chicago is closed, it's a bit like when all the proper race meetings are off. You have to make do with the all weather from Southwell, or even worse Walthamstow dogs. Or even worse than that the stupid virtual racing that they have these days. Who on earth would bet on that I'll never know. Hang on a minute, yes I do, my mate Kieran. He likes a bet does Kieran, and he also sadly suffers from a medical condition that means he never wants to be too far away from a lavatory, without going into too many details. Well he went down to London with a gangs of mates once and surprisingly they all decided that it would be a sensible thing to do to go out on the lash. When they awoke in the morning at the flat where they were all crashing one of the girls involved had decided to run herself a bath (the very cheek of it). She refused to come out of it even to allow Kieran to see to, what was to his mind some very pressing business. So resourceful Kizzer decides to pop over the road to William Hills and dispose of his brown paper parcel using their facilities. Being a gentleman as well as a scholar of course Kieran couldn't bring himself to simply bowl in and leave Efan Ekoku behind him so to speak, without at least using their other facilities as well. So he quickly put a bet on all they had to offer at that time in the morning, the virtual racing from Hilltop Gardens. One, seven and thirteen are Kizzer's lucky numbers so he rattles off a quick tricast on those and settles down to complete the remainder of his mission. You can probably guess the rest if you've stuck with the story this long, as Kizzer leaves the shop both a couple of pounds lighter and also several hundred pounds heavier. He is ginger though, so he doesn't have things all his own way. 2008 |
## 932 15/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed firmer, with beans, corn and wheat all up around 6-8c. This morning's action can probably best be seen as a rebound from Friday's knee-jerk over-reaction to reports that China was to increase interest rates over the weekend. They didn't, and some commodities are creeping back cautiously higher this morning with crude oil up 81c to USD85.69/barrel and Dec palm oil up 26 ringgit. Argentina have said that they are working on a sanitary protocol with China to pave the way for exports of Argy corn to the nation. With a record corn crop expected this season from the South American country, the Argies say that they hope to export 5 MMT the grain to China in 2011. China are staying tight-lipped, although they are expected to sign a deal in the next few days with the Argies to import beef and barley. Having also recently resolved their spat over soyoil imports, there would potentially seem to be some possibility that these reports are true. You could make out a case for that being either bullish or bearish on US corn, China want 5 MMT of corn next year, they just don't want your corn. Overall though you'd have to say it's long-term bullish the very fact that they potentially want to import anybody's corn. The Chinese have also announced today that they are to limit the volume of corn that feed mills can buy at their weekly government auctions. That could also be seen as a sign of state reserves getting tight. On the US weather front fairly widespread rains late last week and over the weekend should have improved winter wheat conditions on the Plains. The dry Ohio Valley missed out but is expected to get some relief later this week. The USDA will report on winter wheat crop conditions after the close tonight. Australia is seen having it's second largest wheat crop on record, despite a severe drought in WA, although quality is questionable following persistent rains in the east. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 6-8c; beans up 7-9c; wheat up 5-7c. 2008 |
## 937 09/03/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with wheat recovering some of the past couple of days steep declines up generally 7-9c. Corn was 3-4c firmer and beans flat to 5c lower. Crude is up again on reports of an oil storage facility in Libya being hit in an aerial bombardment by pro-Gaddafi forces. Kansas wheat received valuable precipitation in recent days, but there is a long way to go to restore field restore for spring growth and development. Oklahoma and Texas were largely bypassed by the storm, say Martell Crop Projections. Hard red winter wheat has received only 1.58 inches of precipitation since December 1, compared to 3.1 inches normally, they add. China sold 1.4 MMT at this week's wheat auction, a notably larger volume than in recent sales. India says that it has over 17 MMT of wheat reserves, far more than government set minimums and there's an anticipated 82 MMT crop on the way imminently. France have upped the size of it's 2010 soft wheat crop from 36.8 MMT to 37 MMT. Book squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA report looks likely to be today's theme. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn, up 3-5c, Beans up 1-2c, Wheat up 5-7c. 2008 |
## 952 18/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed with solid gains, wheat up 20-22c, corn up around 16c and beans up 30c or so. Ideas seem to be forming that the recent sake-out was more than enough and presents a buying opportunity. Crude oil is higher, the dollar weaker and outside markets generally also lending some support. Export sales were much better than expected for wheat, towards the top end of estimates for beans and as expected for corn. There were no sales to China on corn, but they took around 75% of the bean total as per usual. The Chinese authorities continue to talk the talk concerning measures to calm food price inflation, but that now seems fully factored into current levels. An interest rate hike might be on the cards as early as tomorrow, although last months similar move didn't really have a huge amount of impact when all said and done. There are still some concerns over dryness in parts of Argentina. After a delayed start, plantings in Brazil appear to have caught up with normal. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 15-18c higher, wheat up 20-22c, beans 25-30c higher. 2008 |
## 962 19/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed a choppy session lower on news that China was to raise bank reserve requirements by 1/2%, effective from November 29th. Grains had traded higher ahead of the news, but sold off late with beans closing 15-17c lower, corn down 5-7c and wheat around 5c easier. The trade is feeling that the Chinese news is just the first of several moves aimed at reining in inflation, with an interest rate hike also possibly on the cards over the weekend. Whether that will really harm demand for commodities from the world's second largest economy is debatable, the point for now is how does the market percieve it will affect demand for commodities. Russia is likely to remain out of the global grain export market until well past the 2011 harvest, possibly into 2012, according to various trade gossip. That could be right, as they will doubtless want to see the 2011 harvest come to a conclusion, at the very least, before making a decision. There will also be a need to replenish stocks depleted this season, and there are still legitimate concerns over the well being of the newly planted crop to withstand the worst of the Russian winter yet. The euro is up on reports that EU and Irish officials are in talks to thrash out the details of a massive credit line for Ireland's debt-crippled banks over the weekend. The weather outlook in Argentina is finally improving. Last night, rains started falling heavily across N Argentina and continue today, with much more on the way over the next 6 days. Totals have all ready been heavier than earlier expected, say QT Weather. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 13-15c, corn down 5-7c and wheat 4-6c lower. 2008 |
## 975 08/11/10 -- The overnight trade closed mostly a little lower in positioning ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports. Wheat finished with losses of 2-3c nearby, with corn down 1-2c and beans off 2-4c. The dollar is back to pretty much where it was before last week's QE2 announcement from the Fed. Crude oil is slightly lower. China and Brazil amongst others are voicing their opinions about the Fed seeming to be deliberately undermining the dollar. The euro is also weak on concerns over Irish debt. Tonight the USDA will report on harvest progress and crop conditions for US winter wheat. Last week's report showed soybeans harvested at 96% and corn harvesting at 91% complete. Winter wheat was 92% planted and good/excellent conditions were just 46%. Tomorrow's USDA report will lower corn yields and production and raise slightly that for soybeans. 2010/11 ending stocks will fall for both corn and beans and be about unchanged on wheat. At least that is what just about everyone seems to think. Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is about 50% done compared with 75% or so normally, with farmers planting round the clock in an attempt to make up for lost time. It's not this season's soybeans they are worried about, it's second sarfina crop corn. A crop similar to last season in the 68-69 MMT bracket is what most analysts are forecasting at the moment. The USDA have just confirmed the sale of 300,000 MT of US soybeans to China. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 2-4c, corn 1-2c lower and wheat down 2-3c. 2008 |
## 991 10/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed with nearby wheat and beans down 6-7c, and corn 5-6c lower. For beans consolidation was the name of the game following last night's solid gains, for wheat and corn it seems to be a return to is rationing already priced in? It's Veteran's Day in the US tomorrow, so the USDA's weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday. That may provide further evidence that prices are indeed rationing demand - at least for wheat and corn. Egypt are tendering for wheat today, so which way they swing may influence the market this afternoon. Last week's tender went mostly to Argentina, where the USDA yesterday upped 2010/11 wheat production by 1.5 MMT and increased exports by 1 MMT. China imported fewer soybeans in October than many had forecast at only 3.7 MMT, a sign perhaps that they are returning to importing more soyoil again from Argentina at the expense of lower US bean imports. The Chinese have been accounting for around 75% of the weekly US exports for some weeks now, so any sign of a fall off in demand from that quarter would have a significant impact on the bottom line for US stocks. That said, the USDA have today confirmed 110,000 MT of soybeans and 30,000 MT of soyoil sold to China. Brazil's IBGE peg the 2011 soybean crop there at 68.1 MMT, in line with an estimate from Conab yesterday of 67.7-69.0 MMT. The US weather is finally turning wetter for wheat on the Plains. Over the next 5 days, rains will be excessively heavy in Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of Iowa. 1-2 inches is forecast from Wisconsin to Texas and the epicenter will be in Kansas, where 3+ inches will fall, say QT Weather. As temperatures also plunge however the question is will there be enough time for Kansas wheat to truly benefit from this much-needed moisture before winter dormancy sets in? The chance for a major turnaround in Kansas wheat is improbable this season. A strong La Nina is in effect, a known drought producer in the Southern Great Plains, say Martell Crop Projections. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 3-5c, beans down 5-7c, wheat down 4-6c. 2008 |
## 995 11/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed mostly a tad firmer, with beans up 3-5c, corn up 2-4c and wheat around a couple of cents firmer. Crude oil is a bit higher, showing up above USD88/barrel now and seemingly eyeing a test of USD90/barrel. It's Veterans Day so there's no weekly export sales report until tomorrow as most US government offices are closed, so fresh news is limited. Informa are however expected to release their early 2011 planting intentions estimates later today. US weather shows improving prospects for rain over the next few days for dry areas of Kansas, although temperatures are also forecast to drop sharply. Brazilian soybean farmers are reportedly planting around the clock to get their delayed beans into the ground. Strategie Grains say that the EU-27 will plant more wheat, corn and barley for 2011 - but not vast increases. They also warn on EU wheat exports for the current marketing year running at a rapid pace, with a very large deficit on the bottom line of the balance sheet. EU prices need to rise to offset increased demand, they say. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn up 2-4 cents, soybeans 3-5 higher, and wheat 1-3 higher. 2008 |
## 1095 20/10/10 -- The overnight grains all rebounded from yesterday's declines with beans up 13-15c, corn 8-10c higher and wheat advancing 4-5c. It's same old, same old as far as I can see with beans potentially the strongest and wheat the weakest leg of the three. Yesterday's sharp declines in outside markets following China's surprise interest rate hike seems to have been arrested, at least for now. Crude oil is up, although by less than a dollar and the DJIA looks like opening slightly firmer in line with modest gains in European stocks. Dryness in the Midwest will have enabled harvest progress for beans and corn to advance even further ahead of normal this week. Some rain in the forecast for HRW wheat areas should enable to newly planted crop to get off to a decent start. India is shaping up like having a record wheat crop this season, with a decent soil moisture profile as planting gets underway and more modern varieties going into the ground. The government there have raised the support price for wheat to help ensure that planted area is maintained. China are back in the market for soybeans again, buying 180,000 MT today report the USDA. As you will have noticed this has rapidly become a daily event now. US wheat got a decent look-in in Egypt's wheat tender yesterday, although it was far from a landslide victory. Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 10-15c, corn up 8-10c, wheat up 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1182 18/10/11 -- There's no sign of the fabled turnaround Tuesday so far with the overnight grains finishing sharply lower with beans leading the way. They ended up shedding around 22-25 cents to make a 40+ cent loss on the week so far. Corn and wheat both finished the overnight session around 8-10 cents lower. Risk aversion seems to be back on the agenda with global stocks declining as market optimism for decisive action to halt the European debt crisis wanes. Goldman Sachs have just announced a near USD400 billion Q3 loss, saying that it has been significantly impacted by the problem. China's growth slowed in September and Moody's are warning France of negative outlook to its credit rating to add to world jitters. Crude oil is weaker and the US dollar firmer. The US corn and soybean harvests are progressing well, with both ahead of the five year average. For beans in particular the market is disappointed to find that the USDA haven't confirmed any of the rumoured volume sales to China in the past few days. Attention is already switching to South America where Celeres report 10% of the Brazilian soybean crop is planted. The Argy Ministry on Friday reported corn planting progress at 32% complete. Recent heavy rains will have helped winter wheat production potential there. Ukraine's Grain Association says that they expect their parliament's recent ruling to abolish export duties on wheat and corn in the near future. So far this marketing year they've exported less than 4 MMT of grains, 24% down on last year despite a sharp rebound in production and a bumper corn harvest on the way. There's talk of the CFTC proposing some new legislation on position limits later today. Similar moves could also be on the cards here in unregulated Europe at the forthcoming G20 meeting early next month is the word on the streets. Open interest in front month November Paris milling wheat currently stands at over 8 MMT despite the fact that the contract expires in little more than three weeks. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session are in line with the overnight closes: beans 20-25 cents lower, wheat and corn down 8-10 cents. 2008 |
## 1186 17/10/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans around 13-15 cents lower, corn 1-3 cents weaker and wheat mostly 1-2 cents firmer. Crude was trading higher in morning exchanges but has slipped into negative territory now that Germany has warned against placing too much optimism on this weekend's meeting of EU finance ministers. That's set the euro back and firmed the US dollar a little. The USDA will report after the close on harvest progress, with soybeans likely to be around 70% done and corn up to around 40% or so complete. As ever, the market is already starting to look to South America before the US harvest is even over. In Brazil it's estimated that around 7% of the planned soybean area has so far been planted. With beans having gained over a dollar a bushel last week and corn 40 cents, we may be in for a bit of profit-taking amidst harvest pressure to begin the week. Direction after that could be decided by the vibes coming out of Europe. With wheat having gained the least last week, that may start the week the strongest leg of the three. The size of the fund short in wheat may also limit the downside for the time being. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-15 cents, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat 1-3 cents firmer. 2008 |
## 1192 19/10/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed, mostly a tad higher with wheat up 2-4 cents, corn 2-3 cents higher and beans flat to 2 cents lower. In a desperately uninspiring market it seems that everything is on hold waiting to see what will come of this weekends summit of EU financial leaders. France and Germany are said to have struck a deal to increase the bailout fund to EUR2 trillion, although exactly where the money is going to come from is unclear. Is this a real EUR2 trillion or a smoke and mirrors Monopoly money EUR2 trillion? Even so, it might sound like a lot but is it enough? Relative minnows Greece have EUR330 billion of outstanding debt on their own with Italy's and Spain's coming in at a combined EUR2.5 trillion. And those figures don't include the knock on effect of how many times those billions and trillions have been passed around the room. As well as everyone in Europe owing money to everyone else in Europe we've also got other countries exposure to European debt too. In the case of the UK for example (as at the end of March 2011) the US was exposed to $715 billion (EUR516 billion) of UK debt - more than any other nation. Out of interest Japan and Australia also featured in that particular league table in seventh and eight position. If we're talking about a game of musical chairs then there's maybe twenty or so big players circling the room and only one chair in the centre, the most that is likely to come out of this weekend's summit is that there'll be two chairs in the middle of the room on Monday. Let's hope the music keeps playing, because it's going to get very messy if and when it stops. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 3-5 cents, corn up 2-3 cents and beans flat to 2 cents higher. 2008 |
## 1198 20/10/11 -- The overnights were mixed, rebounding a little from earlier losses with wheat around 2-3 cents firmer with corn 1 1/2 up to 1 1/2 cents down and beans down 1-2 cents. Breaking news suggests that ousted Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi gas been captured, and possibly killed. That may see crude oil prices lower this afternoon. Bangladesh has bought 50,000 MT of Indian wheat in a tender as the latter attempts to dispose of some of it's surplus stocks left over from it's last harvest, with another bumper crop expected early in 2012. South Korea has bought 110,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat, possibly Australian, presumably misplacing corn in the ration. Ukraine exporters will have had a busy day on the phones trying to get some wheat sales on. Grain exports in the current marketing year could double thise of 2010/11 now that the export duty has been lifted on wheat and corn. Europe's corn crop will be a record 63.4 MMT say Strategie Grains, more than 13% up on last year. They also raised their EU-27 soft wheat production estimate for 2011 by 200,000 MT to 129.2 MMT and forecast cereal plantings for the 2012 harvest to increase by 700,000 ha. The USDA report weekly export sales of 1.85 MMT for corn, which was actually lower than the 2.0-2.5 MMT expected with China being confirmed as taking 900,100 MT. Soybean sales were 594,700 MT, below the 850 thousand MT to 1 MMT anticipated, although China did show up taking 331,000 MT of that. Wheat sales were also below trade ideas at 399,400 MT. The markets remain nervous on the conflicting vibes coming from European leaders ahead of the weekend summit. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 1-3 cents, corn flat to 1 cent firmer and soybeans mixed. 2008 |
## 1215 12/10/11 -- What the overnight grains did is out of the window now that we have the USDA numbers to go on, but for the record corn was 7-9 cents firmer, wheat 2-6 cents lower and beans 2-4 cents weaker. The USDA numbers were mixed with wheat bearish, corn neutral to bearish and soybeans bullish. US corn yields were left unchanged and production dropped a little, contrary to expectations for small increases. US ending stocks were however raised for both 2010/11 and 2011/12. World carryout for 2011/12 was also increased largely by virtue of an unexpected 4 MMT hike in production in China. US and world wheat ending stocks were also raised, and in the case of the latter by much more than anticipated to their highest since 2001/02. For soybeans US yields were cut rather than left unchanged and ending stocks for 2011/12 were much lower than expected, although world ending stocks increased slightly which was in line with trade ideas. The wheat numbers are the ones that slap you in the face. Early calls are wheat down 10-15 cents, corn mixed and beans 5-10 cents higher. 2008 |
## 1221 13/10/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with corn down around 6-8 cents, wheat falling 2-4 cents and soybeans 5-7 cents weaker. Crude is around a dollar and a half easier after the International Energy Agency lowered its estimate for world oil demand. The dollar is a bit firmer. Both are negative for grains. Russia's grain harvest is now at 91.8 MMT with 10% of the planted area still left to cut, implying a crop in excess of Putin's 95 MMT estimate. The market continues to digest yesterday's USDA report, along with attempting to reconcile the European debt situation and it's impact on global trade. Data just out shows that China's export growth in September was much lower than market expectations. Meanwhile the IMF have cut their growth forecast for Asia as a whole on the back of the fallout from the European debt crisis, saying that risks for Asia are decidedly tilted to the downside. Short-term, the trade is waiting for confirmation from the USDA of this week's supposed large corn and soybean sales to China, and clues to whether any of the reported soyoil business also came the way of the US. Yesterday's USDA report was undeniably bearish for wheat, yet the Dec CBOT contract is still almost 20 cents higher on the week so far even after yesterday's slump, suggesting that further downside is likely. The USDA resisted the temptation to increase US corn yields yesterday, contrary to market expectations. They also surprisingly dropped soybean yields, leaving potential for both to be revised higher in next month's report. Despite lower US production estimates for both, world corn stocks are seen rising and soybean inventories holding steady in 2011/12. Unless a South American weather scare is forthcoming the market will potentially now focus more on demand rather than supply. Against a background of slumping world economic growth, huge European debt, and the fact that it's only 11 weeks until the US ethanol blenders' tax credit expires there could me more downside on grains. And that's before we start to look at America's debt problems and political indecision. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 6-8 cents lower, beans down 5-7 cents and wheat 3-5 cents weaker. 2008 |
## 1228 03/10/11 -- The overnight grains finished with corn down 10-14 cents, beans 10-11 cents lower and wheat 2-4 cents weaker. NYMEX crude is down a dollar and a half as more Greek worries emerge after they announced that they were set to miss deficit targets at the end of the year. Money continues to pour out of commodities, including grains. ANZ Bank say that spec money reduced their longs in US agrimarkets by almost half in the week to Sept 27th. The head of the Russian Grain Union now says that the country will harvest 93 MMT of grains this year, pegging export potential at around 25 MMT of the 30 MMT surplus that they have for sale. The Kazakh harvest meanwhile stands at 22.2 MMT so far, 86% up on last year's final total with 13% of the planted area still to be cut. The hangover from Friday's bearish USDA report continues, with corn falling to 9 1/2 month lows having apparently endured it's largest one month fall in fifteen years in September. Prospects look promising for the southern Plains winter wheat planting and early growth with the most significant rain this area has seen in months in the forecast a week from now, with a secondary dose showing up in the 11-15 day prognosis, according to WxRisk. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 12-14 cents, beans down 10-12 cents and wheat 2-4 cents lower. 2008 |
## 1232 04/10/11 -- The meltdown in grains continues with the overnight Globex market closing 12-14 cents lower on beans, 10-12 cents lower on corn and down 8-10 cents on wheat. Crude is down almost two dollars at USD75.68/barrel. Risk aversion is the buzz phrase once again, with the usual suspect of Greece the main cause for concern after EU finance ministers put off a decision on handing over the next slug of bailout cash. It would seem that we've now got to wait another month to see IF Greece does get the funding to stop it defaulting in November. That's a long time in the grain markets. If we were to see the falls of the past month mirrored in the one that lies ahead then we'd be looking at corn at four dollars a bushel and soybeans at nine dollars a bushel by the end of October! On the fundamental front we've got Russia's grain harvest now standing at 89.5 MMT, with 12% of the planted area still left to cut. Wheat accounts for 55.8 MMT of what has been harvested so far and barley 17.1 MMT - the latter being 1.6 MMT higher than the USDA's current estimate. The corn harvest in Ukraine is now in full swing at 28% complete, producing 5.5 MMT so far - implying a crop of 19.6 MMT versus the USDA projection of 18 MMT. Australia is seen having a record volume of wheat to shift in 2011/12 by virtue of heavy carryover stocks from last season. A lot of those stocks are feed wheat. Early harvest results out of Queensland are said to be a bit disappointing, which may mean those feed wheat stocks will be getting added to this year, which would be bearish for corn. StatsCanada peg all wheat production there this year at 24.16 MMT, 1 MMT up on a year ago and slightly higher than their previous estimate and the latest USDA figure. FCStone are bullish on US corn and soybean production prospects pegging this season's corn yield at 148.7 bu/acre, up 2.4 bu/acre from their previous estimate. Their soybean yield figure is now 42.8 bu/acre, 1.75 bu/acre up on a month ago. Both numbers are also higher than last month's USDA estimates. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 10-12 cents, wheat down 8-10 cents, beans down 12-14 cents. 2008 |
## 1238 05/10/11 -- The overnight grains finished firmer for once, mirroring rises in global stock markets and crude oil in a modest rebound from recent steep losses. Corn closed the Globex session around 8-9 cents firmer, with wheat up 9-11 cents and soybeans climbing 12 cents or so. NYMEX crude is up the best part of two dollars at USD77.60/barrel. European stock markets are up around 2-3% despite a three notch downgrade from Moody's for Italy. There's widespread talk that China will need to import more corn than the USDA's current 2011/12 estimate of 2 MMT with production falling well short of the USDA's 178 MMT estimate. There's no guaranteeing if they do need to import 5-10 MMT, as the US Grains Council suggest, that they won't turn to South America for much of it though. For all the talk that current prices will stimulate demand, Taiwan have today passed on a tender to import 60,000 MT of US corn. With the Russian Grain Union earlier in the week saying that this season's grain crop there could rise to 93 MMT, PM Vladimir Putin has upped the ante further today announcing an anticipated crop of 95 MMT (up 56% on last year), with wheat accounting for 60 MMT of that (a 45% increase on 2010). The latter is 4 MMT higher than the USDA's current projection and almost 20 MMT higher than domestic consumption. On the weather front harvesting in the Midwest should be moving on under favourable conditions. The US Plains are expected to receive widespread rains Fri-Mon, which could do wonders for newly sown winter wheat and also aid further plantings. Informa are due out mid-session with their latest yield/crop production estimates ahead of next Wednesday's numbers from the USDA. Some seem to think that an upwards revision may be on the cards from Informa, in line with FCStone's slant on things earlier in the week. For now today looks like an overdue up day with early calls: corn up 7-9 cents, wheat up 9-11 cents and beans up 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 1248 07/10/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with wheat down 7-9 cents, corn down 8-9 cents and beans 10-12 cents weaker. After the Globex market closed news came out that the US economy added 103,000 jobs in September, better than expectations, which may add some support to grains this afternoon. What won't add support however is the news that the Ukraine parliament has voted to end the export duty on wheat and corn with immediate effect. They will now be in a position to compete aggressively with Russia and Kazakhstan, and are likely to ramp up sales and exports quicker than you can say George Gershwin to make up for lost time having largely sat out of the first three months of the marketing year. You will recall that Ukraine wheat undercut Russia in last week's Egyptian tender even with the export duty (9% with a minimum of EUR17.00/tonne) in place. The USDA have reported 106,000 MT of soybeans sold to China under the daily reporting system. The weather remains conducive for harvesting in many parts of the Midwest whilst hard red winter wheat is expecting very heavy rain from recurring showers tomorrow and Saturday, 3-4 inches in portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, say Martell Crop Projections. If they arrive these should be very beneficial for newly planted winter wheat and also encourage an increase in planting progress which has lagged as farmers have sat on their hands awaiting their arrival. Wheat and corn are higher on the week so far, with beans weaker. All three are expected to open in negative territory this afternoon ahead of the weekend, with early calls: corn down 6-8 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents, beans down 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 1250 06/10/11 -- The overnight grains extended yesterday's upward momentum closing with wheat around 5-7 cents firmer, corn up 3-5 cents and beans 10-12 cents higher. Weekly export sales from the USDA were 431,200 MT for wheat, bang in the middle of expectations of 350 to 550 thousand MT. They were 741,800 MT for beans, in line with trade estimates of 550 to 850 thousand MT, and almost 1.3 MMT for corn - above trade guesses of 750 TMT to 1 MMT. China took one cargo of the corn. Elsewhere we've had the USDA announce the sale of 115,000 MT of soybeans to China. Coceral have raised their estimate for EU-27 soft wheat production by almost 2 MMT and also increased their corn output forecast by almost 6 MMT. Outside markets are firmer with NYMEX crude up almost a dollar and EU stock markets rising, although both are off earlier highs. The ECB surprised/frustrated some by leaving interest rates in the eurozone unchanged, the BOE startled nobody by doing likewise. The latter did however increase QE by GBP75 billion. The market is expected to open higher, but bulls might lack the confidence buy into their own rhetoric given the recent pasting that they have taken. Early calls: corn up 4-6 cents, wheat up 6-8 cents, beans up 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 1258 26/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with soybeans 8-10 cents lower, corn 3-6 cents firmer and wheat up 2-3 cents. All those were much better than the session lows which saw beans down more than 30 cents at one point, with corn down 8 cents and wheat down 16 cents. Dec beans traded down to USD12.26/bu overnight - the lowest for a front month since last November. There's a bit of fragile optimism that something will finally get done to sort out the Greek debt crisis in the form of a 50% debt write-down, even though the Greek finance minister is quoted as saying that an orderly default has not been discussed. There's also talk of a eurozone interest rate reduction, although I don't see that coming down from 1.5% to 1% is going to make a whole deal of difference myself. There are also rumours around that the ECB will discuss further bond purchases next week. German business sentiment meanwhile has fallen for the third month in a row it has been reported today. Informa said on Friday that US farmers will plant a post-WWII record 94.3 million acres of corn in 2012, up 2.5 million on this year. The soybean area will also increase 800,000 to 75.8 million and all wheat by 2.2 million to 56.6 million acres. Cotton sowings will decline 2.8 million to 12.0 million acres, they added. There's a long way to go before we get there of course. For now market direction this week will likely be governed by whether fund money decides that it needs to further decrease exposure to grains, and that will probably be tied to tangible signs of concerted action on the European debt issue. There wasn't much rain relief over the weekend for dry areas of the southern Plains hoping to plant winter wheat. The USDA will report on crop conditions and harvest progress for other crops after the close tonight. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, wheat up 1-3 cents, beans down 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 1274 19/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with wheat, corn and beans all down around 6-8 cents. Crude is more than a dollar lower and the USD is firmer. Risk aversion is in the driving seat again today, with lots of talk but little action coming out of Europe over the weekend. Greece is squealing as the EU and IMF poke it with a big stick, saying it must do more tidying up if it wants the next raft of money due next month. It's your own fault that you threw that big party and smashed all those plates isn't it? Get them tidied up. Greece is saying that it might have smashed some of the plates but it certainly didn't smash all of them, so it doesn't see why it should be made to pick them all up. France and Germany, where the plates are made, don't know what to do. Fresh fundamental news is thin on the ground. Algeria have just bought 450,000 MT of optional origin wheat, probably from it's usual source - France. Tunisia has also been in the market booking 92,000 MT of soft wheat and 25,000 MT or durum. The US weather outlook has improved a little. Some reports suggest that the USDA's next movement on US corn yields will be to peg them a bit higher. Funds have been large sellers of late, particularly for corn, and money flows look set to dictate things once again this week. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10 cents, corn down 6-8 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents. 2008 |
## 1279 20/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished with corn and wheat around 8-11 cents firmer and beans 10-14 cents higher. Corn is back up above USD7.00/bu on vague rumours of Chinese purchases. The Chinese government have announced the release of 3.7 MMT of state-owned corn onto the market. The trade is struggling to calculate of that is bullish or bearish. It's bearish if it means that this is nearly 4 MMT that locals won't need to import, it's bullish if it means that domestic stocks there are so tight that they're scraping the barrel to release whatever inventories they have left onto the market. What we do know for sure though is that the USDA has just announced 120,000 MT of US soybeans sold to China. Other Asian nations are now popping up as buyers of corn and wheat on this latest price break. The market is clearly fancying an up day, but bulls will likely remain cautious with the Fed meeting today/tomorrow and the ongoing European debt problems. Fresh developments from either of those quarters could be a game-changer. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: pretty much up 10-12 cents on wheat, corn and beans. 2008 |
## 1294 23/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished a choppy session mixed with wheat slightly firmer, corn down 5-7 cents and soybeans 20-22 cents lower. Early signs of calm after yesterday's sharp sell-off evaporated late in the Globex session on talk of China's economy slowing. NYMEX crude slumped below USD80/barrel, it hasn't closed below that level in almost a year, and has now lost 10% on the week. There's a growing feeling this week that US and EU central bank's have just about run out of bullets to halt the unfolding financial crisis. The USDA confirmed the sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting system, yet it looks like further fund selling will be a feature once again this afternoon. Whilst managed money is still liquidating longs in corn and beans, it's actually already short on wheat which may prevent the latter from matching downwards strides with the former two this afternoon. This latest flight to safety is keeping the US dollar firm, which is adding a bit of bearish pressure to grains. There's an element of harvest pressure too, with weather forecasts mostly favourable for the next two weeks. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat flat to 2 cents higher, corn down 5-7 cents, beans down 15-20 cents. 2008 |
## 1303 14/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with beans and corn around 4-6 cents lower and wheat flat to 2/3 cents firmer. Crude oil is half a dollar weaker. European debt concerns haven't gone away, although there seems to be a degree of optimism about so far today. The French, German and Greek leaders are to apparently try and pull a rabbit out of the hat to calm the markets today. EU Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso is advocating plans for the 17 eurozone nations to issue joint bonds, an idea that many (but not Germany) seem to like. The chance of frost in the Upper Midwest is seen diminishing, there's also a decent shot at some rains for the dry southern Plains ahead of winter wheat planting. The NOPA soybean crush for August came in at 118.8 million bushels, below the 119.7 million expected and 4.2 million down on August 2010. The trade is awaiting the results of Egypt's latest wheat tender, the arrival of Kazakhstan on the scene is expected to keep a lid on recent Russian price rises. The USDA have just confirmed the sale of 106,000 MT of US soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. China's CNGOIC says that it will produce more than 180 MMT of corn this year, a record volume and 2 MMT more than the USDA said on Monday, but then again what else would you expect them to say? No sooner do we have Monday's eagerly awaited production and S&D numbers than we find ourselves looking for direction again. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat flat to 2 cents firmer, corn down 3-5 cents and soybeans down 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 1309 15/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished with wheat and corn 5-7 cents lower and beans down around 3-5 cents. Crude is half a dollar firmer. Weekly export sales for 2011/12 came in at 413,500 MT for wheat (against expectations of 300 to 600 TMT), 1,127,300 MT for corn (400 to 700 TMT) and 351,900 MT for beans (400 to 600 TMT). There was also 41,100 MT of corn sold for delivery in 2012/2013 to Japan. So corn sales were strong, wheat sales so so and bean sales a bit disappointing. Frost did occur in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota overnight, although crop damage is expected to be minimal. US wheat was a no show for the second week running in Egypt's latest tender yesterday where prices were down around USD12/tonne on last week. The trade feels somewhat lethargic today. There's a bit of optimism surrounding Greek debt and European stocks are higher yet grains look like they couldn't buy a rally at the moment. Front month beans have lost almost 70 cents since the end of August, with corn down nearly 40 cents and wheat falling 45 cents in the same timeframe. The weight of length stacked up on corn in particular leaves the market vulnerable to further price corrections once sell stops start to get triggered. When it's obvious to everyone that corn can only go one way, then it's obviously time to get out. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and wheat 4-6 cents lower, corn down 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 1314 05/09/11 -- Unchanged across the board is the confident shout from Nogger Towers today! European stocks are sharply lower on a combination of US recession fears and debt woes that simply won't go away. (As the market appeared to be hoping they would). Crude oil is USD2.28/barrel lower, whilst the FTSE100 is down 3.5% at 3pm London time. Things are even worse on the continent where the French Cac40 and German Dax are down around 5.5% on the day so far. Nov London wheat is down GBP2.05/tonne and Paris wheat EUR0.75/tonne easier on negative sentiment. All that could change tomorrow however when US markets re-open, depending on whether or not Chicago grains can divorce themselves from outside influences. Inform Economics are due out tomorrow afternoon with their latest US crop estimates ahead of the official USDA version next Monday. Before that we will have the USDA out tomorrow night with their latest crop progress report, we can expect further declines in good/excellent for beans and corn. Ukraine only exported 1.8 MMT of grain in July/August weighed down by export duties, according to the local Agrarian Confederation. That's 22% down on last year and only a third of Russia's exports during the same period. They shipped 1 MMT of barley during the period, with more than half of that going to Saudi Arabia. Beneficial rains throughout the growing season mean that Western Australia state is expecting a grain crop of 11-12 MMT this year, of which wheat should comprise around 8 MMT, 70% up on last year. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of barley this week. 2008 |
## 1320 06/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower on economic jitters with beans down around 17 cents, corn 5-7 cents weaker and wheat falling 7-9 cents. Crude oil is the best part of USD3/barrel weaker. We have a tug of war developing between US recession fears combined with European debt versus the apparently bullish fundamentals of falling US corn and soybean yields. Allendale have today placed this season's corn crop at 12.466 billion bushels with a yield of 147.7 bu/acre and soybean production at 3.007 billion on a yield of 40.7 bu/acre. The corn yield is at least better than Lanworth's suggestion last week although still well below the USDA's August number. Informa are expected out with their numbers mid-session. Gold has hit another record high as money continues to look for safe havens. They are few and far between. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 4-6 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents, beans down 16-18 cents. 2008 |
## 1333 08/09/11 -- The overnight trade ended mostly lower with wheat down 3-5 cents, corn 2-3 cents easier and beans falling 5-8 cents in the most active months. Crude is a little higher as too is the dollar. Fresh news is once again hard to come by as the trade awaits Monday's USDA reports. Given yesterday's bullish sub-12 billion bushels production estimate from Cropcast, corn put in a pretty poor show to close in negative territory last night. It has also slipped away into the red this morning along with wheat and beans. Some reports of early harvested corn suggest better than expected yields, which is maybe going to keep the heavily long bulls a bit nervous going into Monday's reports. Other reports suggest sharply higher corn plantings in Brazil and Argentina due to the high levels of profitability current levels present. South Korea has bought 161,900 MT of US corn overnight. US wheat wasn't even offered in yesterday's Egyptian tender in which Kazakhstan emerged as a new competitor for Russia. USDA weekly export sales are only out tomorrow due to the Labour Day holiday on Monday. I'd expect to see some modest profit-taking today which may continue tomorrow, especially if the export sales disappoint, as I think they might. There are some rain possibilities in the forecast for the southern Plains ahead of winter wheat planting. There are also various differences of opinion as to what track the next wave of tropical storms brewing up in the Gulf of Mexico will take. Obama will address a joint session of Congress tonight and before that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the Minnesota Economic Club in Minneapolis. There are maybe enough uncertainties there to encourage some money being taken off the table. Early calls: corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 3-5 cents and beans down 5-7 cents. 2008 |
## 1337 09/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished mostly higher with corn up 2-3 cents, beans 4-6 cents firmer and wheat 1-2 cents weaker. Weekly export sales from the USDA were better than expected for wheat, and in line with expectations for corn and beans. Wheat sales came in at 512,200 MT compared to estimates of 350-450 TMT, with unknown destinations (251,400 MT) the biggest buyer. Corn sales of 870,600 MT were in line with the 800 TMT - 1 MMT expected with Mexico (313,800 MT) the largest buyer. There were 2,795,700 MT in sales outstanding at the end of the 2010/2011 marketing year (Aug 31st) which were carried over to the 2011/12 marketing year. Soybean sales of 444,900 MT were in the middle of the 350-650 TMT expected with China featuring as the largest buyer booking 192,200 MT. A total of 2,281,900 MT in sales were outstanding on August 31 and were carried over to the 2011/12 marketing year. On the week so far we have Dec wheat down 37 1/2 cents, Dec corn down 26 cents and Nov beans down 27 1/2 cents. Crude oil is down more than USD2/barrel on the back of the firm dollar, which won't help US exports too much. There are reports from the USDA however of the sale of 127,506 MT of corn overnight to unknown. It's shaping up like a quiet pre-weekend and pre-USDA report session. On Monday the USDA are expected to peg US corn production this season at around 12.5 billion bushels, with soybean output coming in a shade over 3 billion. Early calls: beans up 3-5 cents, corn up 1-3 cents, wheat mixed down 2 cents to up 2 cents. 2008 |
## 1343 30/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower on a lack of follow-through buying with beans, corn and wheat all ending around 8-10 cents weaker. Crude oil is firmer as is the US dollar. Talk that last night's drop in corn ratings was more than the trade anticipated failed to generate further buying interest, which may be a disappointment to the bulls. Fresh news is pretty thin on the ground so far, although the USDA have just reported the sale of 102,500 MT of HRW wheat to unknown. Funds have been massive buyers again of late, so once again the market is becoming saturated with length. With month end looming, and a long weekend lying ahead (Monday is Labour Day) today looks like another Turnaround Tuesday at the moment. The US Conference Board have just reported consumer confidence plunging to 44.5 in August - the lowest level since April 2009. That's below the lowest in a range of economist's estimates of 45-59 average, and sharply below the 59.2 mark recorded in July. Reports that Russia's eagerness to sell this season's wheat surplus is already causing bottlenecks at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk are interesting. Ukraine haven't exactly hit the ground running as far as their exports are concerned, and neither have Kazakhstan who's harvest is only recently underway. Both have plenty of grain to export, but Ukraine needs to iron out it's red tape and export duty system and land-locked Kazakhstan need access to the rest of the world. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn down 8-10c, wheat down 10-15c. 2008 |
## 1348 31/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower on profit-taking and a lack of follow through buying. Beans closed with losses of around 4 cents, with corn down 3-5 cents and wheat mostly 2-4 cents easier although front month September showed double digit losses as the gap between it and December widens. We may be in for some further profit-taking and month end book squaring this afternoon. Crude oil is lower and the US dollar firmer, both of which should weigh on sentiment a little. A cooler outlook is on the cards for most of the Midwest with some welcome an needed rain in the forecast too. That will come too late to help some crops, but should aid late filling corn and pod-setting beans. There is talk of early corn harvesting in Illinois throwing up better yields than anticipated. The parched US Plains should also see some much needed rains which may aid winter wheat planting. That may also encourage some selling ahead of a long three day weekend. Other than that fresh news is extremely thin on the ground today. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and beans 3-5 cents lower, wheat down 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 1354 01/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished with wheat and beans around 10-12 cents lower and corn down 7-8 cents. Crude is a little weaker and the dollar slightly firmer, both negative for grains. The USDA reported weekly wheat export sales of 369,200 MT, towards the low end of expectations for sales of 350 to 550 thousand MT. Corn sales were minus 320,900 MT for old crop and 957,900 MT for new crop giving a combined 637,000 MT versus forecasts of 400 to 650 thousand MT. Soybean sales came in at 593,800 MT of all new crop compared with the 350 to 600 thousand MT estimated. In amongst a lot of corn switching was the sale of 116,000 MT to China switched from unknown. It's the first of the month, but with a long weekend looming in the US it may be next week before we see any new money coming into the market. With the possibility of a wetter look to the weekend funds may decide that it would be prudent to regroup next week once the extent of weekend moisture is known. That may give us some more long liquidation and profit-taking this afternoon. FCStone are out later today with their slant on US corn and soybean production, followed by Informa tomorrow ahead of the USDA a week on Monday. Lower corn yields look like they are a given, but how much is already factored in? Brazilian growers like the look of corn at these levels and are seen upping plantings accordingly. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 6-8 cents, wheat and beans down 8-10 cents. 2008 |
## 1358 02/09/11 -- The overnight grains finished higher, although only partially regaining some of Thursday night's steep losses. Wheat ended up 6-8 cents and corn & beans mostly 4-5 cents firmer. Based on the overnight closes Sep CBOT wheat is down 38 cents on the week so far, with corn down 18 1/4 cents and beans 15 cents higher. Crude oil is more than a dollar lower after the US non-farm payrolls data showed zero jobs were added during August, contrary to expectations for 70-90,000 additions. This was apparently the first time that there were zero jobs added since Feb 1945. Hardly an economy booster that one is it? In addition the June number was revised down from +46k to +20k and the July figure revised down from +117k to +85k. Additional downside pressure for crude may come from ideas that Libya will be attempting to pump as much as it can before long. Yesterday's US crop production numbers from FCStone could be viewed as either bullish or bearish, in a kind of half full or half empty sort of a way. Informa may enlighten us further later this afternoon. Weather watchers are monitoring a major depression in the Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana with a projected track due north into central Louisiana, then curving east across southern Mississippi. Landfall is expected midnight Sunday as a tropical storm with winds of 60 miles per hour. Given the current forecast, heavy, soaking tropical rains would avoid the Midwest, soaking Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, say Martell Crop Projections. Meanwhile a cool front tracking west-to-east across the Midwest this weekend should bring some useful rainfall to soybeans but just how much is the question. If the front moves quickly through the grain belt rainfall would be slight, but a slow moving front could bring 1.2 inches of rainfall. The atmosphere has grown humid and unstable in the Midwest giving rise to hopes for scattered heavy rains, they add. The poor jobs data appears to have got the stock market rattled heading into the long weekend. There may be enough weather uncertainty around too to maybe generate a bit more long liquidation meaning that we close lower than the opening calls which are: corn up 4-5 cents, beans up 5-7 cents and wheat up 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 1367 23/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished with wheat around 8c firmer, corn up 3-5c and beans up 8-10c. Crude oil is a bit firmer and the dollar a tad weaker, both lending support. Last night's fall in crop condition ratings is deemed supportive if hardly surprising. FCStone report that the current ProFarmer crop tour is actually showing good to excellent pod counts. However, pod count means nothing if they do not fill well. Egypt have bought another three cargoes of Russian wheat this afternoon. Russia says that it's harvest is now at the halfway point producing 57.9 MMT of grains, of which 37.3 MMT is wheat and 12.2 MMT is barley. Iraq is tendering for 50,000 MT of wheat but will probably buy more, and Jordan is shopping for 100,000 MT of feed barley. Algeria is also looking for 50,000 MT of barley. StatsCanada may announce a larger than anticpated by the USDA Canadian wheat and rapeseed crop later this afternoon. Today's Chinese government soybean auction apparently attracted no bids. There's an air of calm about the market so far this week, although I suspect that the funds have familiarised themselves as to exactly where the nearest exit is. Fed Chairman Ben Thomas Caxton Bernanke may announce the launching of QE3 on Friday, favouring short-term gain for even more long-term pain. New home sales in the US fell for a surprise third straight month in July, according to the US Commerce Department today. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 4-5c, beans up 8-10c, wheat up 6-8c. 2008 |
## 1373 25/08/11 -- A thrill a minute it isn't today. The overnight grains have closed modestly lower with beans, corn and wheat all losing around 3-5 cents. Crude oil is around half a dollar higher, the USD little changed and gold continues to fall from it's lofty heights of earlier in the week. Much as we tend to drift along waiting for the latest missive from the USDA this week the market is in limbo ahead of tomorrow's speech (due to start at 1400 GMT) by Fed Chairman Thomas Caxton, sorry Ben Bernanke. QE3 could mean more money coming into commodities. So what happens if Bernanke disappoints? Before that today we have the USDA's weekly export sales numbers reporting sales of 347,100 MT of wheat (lower than the 400-950 thousand MT expected), 383,800 MT of old crop corn and 152,300 MT of new crop (in line with the 350-700 thousand MT expected) and 107,500 MT of old crop and 550,100 MT of new crop soybeans (also in line with the 400 TMT to 1.1 MMT expected). The July soybean crush came in at 129.54 million bushels, fractionally higher than the 129.4 million anticipated. The ProFarmer crop tour is reporting lower potential yields than last year for corn and soybeans, but with prices where the presently are much of that should already be factored in. Egypt are tendering again for wheat today, there doesn't seem to be much chance of US or EU grain getting the business unless they decide that price isn't the only determining factor. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 4-6c lower, beans and corn 3-5c easier. 2008 |
## 1375 24/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished mostly lower in a modest reversal from recent gains. Wheat finished down 3-7 cents, with corn 1-2 cents lower and beans 2-3 cents easier. StatsCanada pegged all wheat production there at 24.1 MMT compared with 23.2 MMT last year, 21.5 MMT from the USDA and higher than the average trade estimate of 23.5 MMT. Russian, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and EU wheat output is also trending significantly higher than current USDA estimates. The market is however ignoring all that and concentrating on the US spring wheat crop instead - typically 25% of US all wheat output or about the size of production in Iran. The ongoing ProFarmer crop tour is throwing up some very varied yields for corn and soybeans with the disastrous ones grabbing more headlines than anything else as the market is developing that universally bullish look again - always a dangerous sign. Double dip recession fears and US/European debt worries seem to have been forgotten about in favour of reckless gay abandon, and we know where that got us last time. The USDA have confirmed the sale of 133,500 MT of HRW wheat to unknown. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 1-2c, beans down 2-3c, wheat down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1386 26/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished mostly lower ahead of this afternoon's speech by Ben in which he may or may not the virtues of further Wheat closed around 6-8 cents lower, with corn mostly 1-2 cents easier and down 2-3 cents. Crude oil is down around a dollar. Wheat is the weakest link following another blank in yesterday's Egyptian tender following weekly export sales that failed to match expectations. Talk that Russia may consider grain export duties has been dismissed with a senior Minister saying that the market will regulate itself once Ukraine and Kazakhstan enter the export fray. Ukraine is said to be considering the removal of it's existing export duty system which is preventing it from competing with Russian grain on the international export markets. Kazakhstan has already stated that it will provide subsidies to enable it's land-locked grain to compete with Black Sea offers once it's harvest is complete. The crop tour will summarise it's findings later this afternoon. Market direction today will depend on what has to say, but for now the early calls are beans down 2-3c, wheat down 6-8c and corn 1-2c easier. 2008 |
## 1403 08/08/11 -- The overnight grains were lower across the board in part of a general commodity/stocks sell-off based on S&P's US credit rating downgrade late Friday. Beans closed the Globex session 16-19 cents lower, with corn around 13 cents easier and wheat falling 18-20 cents. Crude oil is 3 cents away from being USD4/barrel lower as I type. European grains are sharply lower too with Paris wheat and corn down around EUR5.00/tonne and rapeseed declining more than EUR10.00/tonne. The ECB have been busy buying Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to assure the market that it has a plan, even if it only thought of it over the weekend. The stock markets aren't hugely convinced with the FSTE100, CAC40 and DAX all down around 2.5-3.0% today. The US weather outlook is fairly benign for August. The question now is how much irreversible damage was done in July. There are plenty that think that the answer to that one is shitloads actually - we will have to wait and see. If they are right, then we appear to be developing into a tug-of-war between grain fundamentals and wider global economic woes. If they are wrong the we really are in for a bear market. The USDA are out with their box of tricks Thursday, my head tells me that they will be higher than the trade has factored in on US corn yields. It's their almost unerring capacity for a shock that has me scratching my head, pondering if they will come up with something outrageously bullish instead. Again we will have to wait and see. A bearish set of numbers (ie hardly changed from last months yield of 158.7bpa) would probably be quickly dismissed as the USDA talking rubbish again. That is if it wasn't for this overtly large set of outside bearish influences kicking around at the moment. Corn prices HAVE to go up, that's what the frustrated bulls are screaming. We need to ration demand, we've only got fifteen minutes of carryover stocks left, the stuff is dying in the fields etc, etc. That's what they're saying. The thing is, the way things seem to be going, the world won't use appreciably more corn if the price was USD5/bushel so long as everything else moves down within the same parameters - as they likely would. Neither would the world use significantly less if it was USD10/bushel either, with the rules of the game as they stand at the moment and with other raw materials increasing by a similar amount. The two most important factors in deciding market direction right now, in my opinion, are the same as they have been for the last five years or so: a) the inclination of spec money to either stick with or exit the market. b) who has the grain to sell, is it the cheap shops or is it Harvey Nicks? We already know the answer to the second one. If that was to combine with an I want out response from the smart money to the first then the market is going lower. If the USDA throw a bearish hat into the ring Thursday as well then who knows how much lower? Especially as a significant move to the downside now would trigger some weighty stop-loss selling from the non-believing bulls. The USDA have announce the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Egypt and 100,000 MT of HRW wheat sold to unknown this afternoon. Early calls: beans 15-20c lower, wheat 18-20c lower, corn 12-15c lower. 2008 |
## 1419 01/08/11 -- The overnight grains were higher on relief that a deal appears to have been struck over the weekend to avert a US debt default. It still has to get past the Senate and House yet before it is written in a tablet of stone though. Wheat finished around 12-14c higher on the news, with corn up 7-9c and beans up 13-15c. Crude oil is currently two and a half dollars higher and the USD is weaker on the back of the news. Yield losses in corn are being factored in, although I suspect that the USDA maybe won't concur, or at least not by as much as the market thinks, next week. Before that we have the crop condition rating this evening. I'm expecting a drop of 1-2 points good/excellent for both corn and beans. Black Sea grain continues to mop up many of the larger export orders kicking about. Russia has wasted no time getting it's 2011/12 season off to a flyer, although activity out of Ukraine has been more subdued due to customs problems. Be assured though that they have got plenty of grain to sell and will be eager exporters before too long. Iran has said that it will be have 2 MMT of wheat to export in 2011/12, an unusual position for them to be in. China says that it will import only 3.15 MMT of soybeans this month, a reduction of a third on this time twelve months ago, due to slack demand and increased government sales. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 12-14c, beans up 13-15c, corn up 7-9c. 2008 |
## 1429 02/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat and corn down a couple of cents and beans mostly a couple higher. Crude oil is around 50c weaker and the dollar up a tad ahead of this afternoon's Senate vote expected to pass the raising of the US debt ceiling. The USDA has announced the switching of 550,000 MT of old crop soybean sales to China into new crop. Some news services currently seem to be reporting this as simply a new crop sale, but this is not the case as I understand it. The bulls are still talking corn losses and tight stocks. The bears are talking the wider implications of global economic uncertainty and a double dip recession. Italy is now getting drawn into the European debt crisis along with Spain, both of whom could be too big to bailout. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of feed barley, which will likely go the way of Russia or Ukraine. Japan is tendering for 103 TMT of US wheat. Russia exported a record volume of grain in July, and doesn't look like letting up that pace anytime just yet. Ukraine has already harvested more wheat and barley than the USDA have them down to produce this year. The European harvest has restarted in northern France after a week or so of rain, without too many reports of significant quality issues. Soft wheat production there is now seen around the 33 MMT mark, in the region of 2.5 MMT down on last year. Yesterday's export inspections for wheat were pretty poor, so this week's export sales will make interesting reading to see if there is any evidence that the US is losing business as it prices itself out of the market. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 2-3c, wheat down 1-2c, soybeans up 1-2c. 2008 |
## 1435 03/08/11 -- The overnight grains were maybe a little bit of a let down for the bulls. Follow though activity on corn was limited after last night's limit up close and wheat and soybeans also slipped away into the red by the close of play. Outside markets aren't helping, with crude down more than a dollar yesterday and losing a further 60c or so today to currently stand at just over USD93/barrel. MasterCard say that US drivers have bought less gas now for nineteen weeks on the trot. The US Commerce Department said yesterday that consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years in June. Employment data will be under the microscope this week after the percentage of US citizens without a job rose to 9.2% in June. America isn't the only one with problems as the European debt crisis now threatens to engulf Italy and Spain. Fast forward to the fundamentals... Corn yields in the US are now looking like 5-7bpa lower than the USDA's current July estimate. Soybean yields may be a bushel or so lower. Russia meanwhile carries on in it's own sweet way, having exported a record volume of grain for the month of July last month it now has it's sights set on an all-time record for August. Not only that but the Russian Grain Union says that they might export up to 25 MMT in 2011/12, almost double the amount that the USDA have them factored in for. Prices of Russian wheat are so low that it could almost be shipped to France and then re-exported to Egypt at less money than current EU offers! Ukraine has already harvested more wheat and barley than the USDA have them down to produce this year at 20.5 MMT of wheat and 8.5 MMT respectively. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to 2c lower, wheat down 8-10c, beans down 3-5c. 2008 |
## 1444 04/08/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower in a further correction from Tuesday's steep gains. Wheat ended with losses of 10-15 cents, with beans falling a similar amount and corn 10-12 cents easier. Both front month September wheat and corn ended below the USD7.00/bushel mark. On the week so far, including the overnights, front month corn is up 29 1/4 cents, wheat up 25 1/2 cents and beans down 4 3/4 cents. Crude oil is lower again today, hovering around USD91/barrel, the dollar is higher and gold is up as economic jitters reverberate around the globe. The USDA have reported a fairly decent set of weekly export sales with wheat and beans at the top end of trade estimates, although corn sales fell slightly short. Namely, wheat sales of 504,000 MT (against expectations of 350 to 500 thousand MT), corn sales of 758,600 MT (850 thousand to 1.1 million MT expected) and 680,200 MT of soybeans (450 to 650 TMT expected). They've also reported the sale of 174,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. US weather forecasts say welcome cooling is on the way with variable rains the next 7 days, according to Martell Crop Projections. That appears to be cooling fund appetite to press the market much higher ahead of next week's USDA reports, and serving as a reminder that yield potential can go up as well as down in August. The stop-start European harvest looks set for another impromptu break as wetter weather moves in from the west. Not much damage has been done yet. Egypt have just bought three cargoes of Russian wheat and one of Romanian wheat at levels around USD262.00-262.50/tonne. Informa Economics are due out with their thoughts on yields and crop production later in the day. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 12-15 cents lower, wheat and corn down 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 1454 25/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with beans down around 10c, wheat down 7-8c and corn 7-9c easier. Crude oil is a dollar lower. The market is concerned that the US debt ceiling issue hasn't yet been resolved. Whilst nobody seriously expects a default, massive spending cuts ARE a possibility, and one that wouldn't be good for the US economy with unemployment already nudging 10%. The most likely scenario however IS a grudging rise in the ceiling. As with the latest resolution to the Greek debt crisis that will just be delaying the inevitable pain that WILL come home to roost one day. A lot like Tony Blair, Barak Obama may be thinking, ha ha, at least it won't be me in charge when this shit hits the fan. Weather reports suggest that the weekend saw a bit more rain than some had feared. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio all got better than expected weekend moisture totals. The outlook for this week isn't quite as warm as was forecast last week either Still, some kind of downgrade in weekly crop conditions can be expected from the USDA tonight. That news won't come until after the close however, so we may finish lower tonight and have another turnaround Tuesday tomorrow. Meanwhile Russia's grain production and export forecasts keep increasing, at least some of which will surely be to the detriment of US export prospects. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn down 8-10c, wheat down 5-7c. 2008 |
## 1462 27/07/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed with corn finishing around 5c weaker and beans & wheat narrowly either side of unchanged. Crude oil is a dollar lower and the USD a bit firmer, both are negative for the grains. US debt concerns remain. One theory is that a default, however unlikely, would see a flood of money into grains as the dollar declines. Another is that spooked investors would pull money out of the grain sector looking for safer assets like gold. It's all pretty hypothetical stuff as nobody really thinks that America will default. An eleventh hour late deal still seems by far the most likely option. And then we just carry on regardless as the Beautiful South would say. Corn and wheat both hover just under USD7/bushel and neither seem to have the strength to break through that level right at the moment. US weather seems a little less threatening than it was last week for the time being. As far as wheat is concerned traders will be conscious that Black Sea wheat is far cheaper with Egypt again buying Russian wheat this week for the third time in quick succession. A spring wheat crop tour going on in the US at the moment is reporting lower yield potential. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 4-6c lower, beans and wheat down 1-2c. 2008 |
## 1467 28/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat 5-7c higher, beans narrowly either side and corn 1-3c easier. The USDA's weekly export sales came in with wheat sales of 473,800 MT for wheat (at the high end of expectations of 300 to 500 TMT), corn sales of 484,500 MT (below the 550 to 950 TMT expected) and soybean sales at 372,700 MT (550 to 850 TMT expected). Nothing too exceptional amongst that lot really, although China showed up buying one cargo of wheat. The International Grains Council have upped their 2011/12 world wheat production forecast by 8 MMT to 674 MMT and increased their ending stocks estimate by 5 MMT to 190 MMT. Corn production is up 1 MMT and carryover up 2 MMT. Separately the Ukraine said that they'd end up with a 51 MMT grain harvest this year, a 30% rebound from last season and the highest estimate we've seen yet. Elsewhere MARS say that the EU wheat harvest will be barely changed at 137 MMT this year, when most private estimates were around 130-132 MMT a month or two ago. Yet despite all these extra tonnages coming out of the woodwork the market appears to want to try pushing higher this afternoon with London wheat up GBP2-3/tonne and Paris wheat up EUR4-5/tonne. The June US soybean crush came in at 124.3 million bushels 0.8 million lower than expected, and rain moving across the Midwest today/tomorrow will be welcomed. The USDA confirm the sale of 170,000 MT of corn to Japan. Overall there seems to be more bearish than bullish news in amongst that lot, and that's besides the US debt ceiling problem still up in the air, yet early calls don't exactly see the market falling out of bed: Wheat up 4-6c, corn down 3-4c, beans flat to 2c lower. 2008 |
## 1480 18/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with wheat down 10-15 cents, corn falling 13-15 cents and beans down 8-10 cents. Crude is a over a dollar and a half lower and the USD is up a tad. Gold has hit record highs and global stocks lower on continued EU/US debt worries. Reports suggest that the weekend weather in the US was maybe a bit better than anticipated and there are also hopes for the heat dome to move away west later in the week. Scattered showers are in the Midwest forecast, beginning in the northern Midwest, but also affecting parts of parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois by Thursday and Friday, say Martell Crop Projections. A collapse of the high-pressure ridge is possible early next week in the Midwest, when the dome of hot air retreats into Western United States. Cool Canadian air would make deep penetration into the Midwest especially east of the Mississippi River. Whether this is temporary or a fundamental change in the weather pattern is unclear, they add Black Sea wheat and barley remain the driving force as far as export competitiveness is concerned. European stock markets are lower and the Dow is likely to follow suit. EU grains are also a negative influence as they struggle to get anywhere near the prices being offered out of the FSU. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 12-14 cents, soybeans down 8-10 cents, wheat down 10-15 cents. 2008 |
## 1489 19/07/11 -- The overnight grains were all higher, reversing yesterday's losses in a typical Turnaround Tuesday. Wheat was 20-25c higher nearby, with corn up around 18-20c and soybeans 10-12c firmer. Crude is a dollar and a half firmer and the USD a touch weaker. Gold has hit a new record high of USD1,609.51 an ounce. The market is getting excited about corn ratings dropping 3 points good/excellent and soybeans by two in last night's USDA conditions report. The bulls are banging on about damage caused by this week's heat dome although some see that hanging around a bit longer than anticipated, others still see that breaking down by the end of the week. The USDA have confirmed the sale of 110,000 of soybeans to unknown. Why wheat should be up 25 cents when it is already way overpriced compared to offers out of the Black Sea is beyond me. Also, in the case of wheat, it seems that the current USDA numbers are likely understated for many of the major producing nations now including Europe, Russia, Ukraine and India. US export potential, raised 2.5 MMT last month, also looks questionable based on current premiums over the Black Sea. European and US debt concerns remain and still potentially hold the key to long-term market direction combined with a fund willingness, or lack of it, to keep their money in ag commodities. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 18-20c, wheat up 20-25c, beans up 10-12c. 2008 |
## 1494 20/07/11 -- The overnight Globex market saw wheat end around 8-10c higher, with corn up 5-7c and soybeans 7-9c firmer. Crude oil is a dollar and a bit higher and the USD a little weaker. The USDA have confirmed 220,000 MT of new crop soybeans sold to China. There's something interesting happening today, the US markets appear to be saying hey guys it's scorching over here, lets add some more weather premium yet the rest of the world is going you can do what you like mate we want to make some sales. Ukraine's Ministry have upped their grain production forecast for 2011 to 47 MMT, in line with the general mood at last week's Kiev conference. Exports are now estimated at 23 MMT, again in line with ideas I heard last week of anything up to 25 MMT. Both Ministry numbers are well ahead of what the USDA currently say. You may also recall that the USDA's estimates on grain production and exports coming out of Russia are currently also significantly lower than those from local independent analysts based over there. You could take those forecasts with a pinch of salt and assume that they are being overstated for whatever reason. The exporting nations in question however certainly aren't acting like they haven't got the volume to sell though are they? It is also worth considering that several of the people I spoke to were of the opinion that Russia's 2010 harvest was probably in reality nearer 70 MMT, not the 60.9 MMT stated. The French wheat market is lower today, concerned it seems that it had almost forgotten what it was like to have substantially cheaper competitors rampaging around it's own backyard. So, for today at least, it looks like each wheat market is going to paddle it's own canoe and not all of them are going in the same direction. We have all become preoccupied in recent years with what's Chicago doing? mentality. It is worth remembering that whilst the US account for around 40% of global corn production it's the rest of us, not America, who produce 92% of the world's wheat. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 4-6c, beans up 7-10c, wheat up 6-8c. 2008 |
## 1517 11/07/11 -- The overnight grains began the week lower with beans down around 6-8 cents, wheat 15-18 cents easier and corn mostly 7-9 cents weaker. Crude oil is almost a dollar and a half lower and the USD is steady. Crude is down on renewed global economic concerns. Demand from China where inflation and interest rates keep rising is a worry, as too are European debt concerns. Russia's grain crop is getting larger, and may not be too far off 2009 production levels it now seems. Early yields are better than expected and recent rains have improved spring crop prospects. In Ukraine too the outlook seems to have improved. Having staged an up week last week it may be time for traders to take some money off the table ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports. There seems to be some hope amongst the bulls that they will take back what they gave in June as far as corn stocks are concerned. It wouldn't be the first time, but by now we should all know that you can't second guess the USDA. They are just as likely to have a bearish report up their sleeves as a bullish one. The recent hefty outflow of fund money suggests that they don't fancy playing this game for the time being. That may be more significant for prices than anything the USDA have to say tomorrow. A few are trying to get a bullish story going with the US weather with dryness concerns and a developing heat dome that is featuring in some headlines. Yet only a couple of weeks ago those same participants were moaning about conditions being too cold and wet. A bit of heat isn't going to hurt too much just yet surely. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 6-8c lower, corn down 7-9c and wheat down 15-17c. 2008 |
## 1537 05/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished stronger after their three day weekend with wheat ending around 20-22c firmer, with corn up 10-16c and beans 12-14c firmer. It would seem that the market is hopeful rather than confident that downside potential has run it's course. There are a few bargain hunters around it appears after last week's shake out. Firmer crude and gold offer outside support. Will fund money come flooding back in now that we are into a new month? Have Greek jitters gone away? The ECB is widely expected to raise eurozone interest rates this week, yet S&P's are saying that getting private banks to roll over some Greek bonds would constitute a “selective default” anyway. China reputedly bought US corn on last week's price break and South Korea are in for more this week. Brazil's corn crop got hit by frost last week and may be in for more of the same in the next few days. The USDA will report on crop conditions and winter wheat harvest progress after the close tonight. Russia's Kommersant newspaper says that Gaddafi is starting to contemplate an exit plan as shortages of cash and fuel bite, according to report on Reuters. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 20-22 cents, corn up 14-16 cents, beans up 12-15 cents. 2008 |
## 1544 06/07/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with beans and wheat down around 10 cents and corn easing 5-6 cents. Global economy fears are back in the limelight with China raising base rates a quarter and Portugal having it's credit rating downgraded to junk by Moody's. The Bank of Moscow has just required biggest bail-out in Russian history after a takeover bid uncovered toxic debts of USD9 billion on its books. There is still a real danger of European debt sparking off a sub-prime domino effect causing financial meltdown around the world. As we have painfully discovered before, you could forget the fundamentals of supply and demand in the grain markets if we were to witness a repetition of that. Spec money continued to pour out of corn last week to the tune of 83,000 contracts, according to CFTC data yesterday. That's over 10 MMT in English, and adds to the similar sized volume of liquidation witnessed in the previous two weeks. The USDA raised good/excellent crop condition ratings one percentage point for wheat, corn and soybeans last night. The USDA have announced the sale of 120,000 MT old crop corn to Egypt and 225,000 MT of new crop corn sold to South Korea. Reports are rife that China has bought more US corn over the past couple of days. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 10-12c, beans down 8-10c, corn down 4-6c. 2008 |
## 1571 29/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished stronger on follow-through momentum from last night and a renewed conviction that Greece would get it's austerity vote through parliament. Beans closed around 14-15c higher with corn up 22-23c on old crop and 12-16c on new crop, wheat gained around 14-17c. After the overnight Globex market closed Greece did indeed narrowly get the vote through by 155-138, which may encourage global investors back into the grains market, although there is a long way to go yet on this Greek story methinks. We've got the USDA tomorrow to give us their June planted area figures, although these are already being dismissed as likely to be inaccurate before they are even released. All wheat area is estimated by the trade at 57.7 million, although there is already widespread talk that whatever figure the USDA come up with will probably be too high given the scale of unplanted acres in North Dakota. Soybean plantings are seen falling slightly from the March estimate to around 76.5 million acres. Corn area is pegged a little higher than previously at 90.8 million. Once we get this report out of the way it will then be interesting to see if fund money fancies returning to the fold in an attempt to push prices back up to where they were. The USDA have announced the sale of 120,000 MT of SRW wheat to unknown. South Korea have bought four cargoes of optional origin feed wheat, most likely Australian I'd suggest. Bulls are pointing to Monday night's fall in crop conditions and a coming heatwave as other supportive factors. The latter may well correct the former however come next week's crop ratings. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 20-25c, wheat up 14-16c, beans up 13-15c. I'll stick my neck out and go for a strong opening that tails away as the session wears on with grains ultimately giving up half their gains by the close of play, and I'll have a fiver on a white Christmas. 2008 |
## 1581 30/06/11 -- We can forget what the overnights did now that we have the USDA numbers to hand. And for corn bulls that is exactly what there are in cryptic crossword parlance NUMB-ers, as in things that make you numb. The corn area estimate was the second highest since the war. Not only did the USDA come out with a corn acreage number miles above what the market was expecting, they went for the double whammy of June 1st stocks much bigger than anticipated. Indeed both numbers were higher than even the highest trade estimates. The June 1st stocks were above the average trade estimate for wheat and beans as well as corn, although all those extra corn acres have to come from somewhere, and in this case it's soybeans. Soybean acres were 1.3 million lower than the average trade guess and 300,000 under the lowest trade estimate. Wheat was about in line with what was anticipated. So you could call the report very bearish on corn, neutral wheat and friendly for soybeans. The early vibe is already for a limit down opening on corn, which may well drag the others down with it. Lost in all the excitement were the USDA's weekly export sales figures. They came in at 545,100 MT for wheat (550,000 to 750,000 MT expected); 934,300 MT for corn (650,000 to 950,000 MT) and 122,500 MT for beans (200,000 to 400,000 MT). The soybean sales were actually 335,600 MT negative for old crop and 458,100 MT positive for delivery in 2011/2012. From a weather perspective things look less threatening. The heat wave this weekend will be cut off by a cool Canadian air mass descending into the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota on Saturday. This would weaken a dome of hot air. High pressure is expected to rebuild next week, strengthening Tuesday-Wednesday, and bringing heat back to the Midwest. However, once again a wave of cool Canadian air would descend into the United States Thursday. This one would be stronger, pushing cool air deeper in the South, and forcing the heat dome to retreat westward. Rainfall chances look good for the Midwest and Mid South next week with deep penetrating cool front. The dome of hot air would take up residence in the Southwest United States as cooler air gains the upper hand in the Midwest. Very favourable growing conditions are indicated on the 6-10 day forecast, say Martell Crop Projections. Having sold around 85,000 corn contracts in the last fortnight, the funds seemed to have regained a bit of belief this week, it will be interesting now to see if this is the final nail in the coffin for corn. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn limit down, soybeans and wheat down 15-20c. 2008 |
## 1592 20/06/11 -- The overnight grains began the week very quietly with neither beans, wheat or corn showing any great significant changes after suffering a bit of a rout last week. Nervousness over a resolution, or lack of it, to the Greek crisis is ongoing and could tip the markets either way as the week progresses depending on what happens next. I believe that France and Germany will ultimately have to reach a consensus on how to sort the problem out. Allowing Greece to fall on it's sword and default may be too bitter a pill to swallow, as both the French and Germans are sitting on large chunks of that debt. The potential repercussions for their own banking system may be worse than allowing Greece to restructure. The uncertainty is keeping money out of commodities. A report in the FT over the weekend says that a recent Barclays Capital survey has seen commodities plunge from the most popular asset class to least popular - with only 15% of respondents fancying commodities to be the best performer over the coming three months, down from 41% in their last survey. Crude is down, but off earlier lows and the dollar is a bit firmer. European grains are all lower, with weekend rains potentially improving prospects in the UK, France and Germany. US weather is mixed. The USDA will report on planting progress, winter wheat harvesting and spring crop conditions tonight. They've also just announced China switching 120,000 MT of old crop soybeans into new crop. South Korea bought corn and wheat over the weekend, with Saudi Arabia also buying wheat, encouraging some belief that prices have now fallen far enough to stimulate demand. July corn traded both sides of USD7/bushel overnight, it will be interesting to see if it can mange to hold above that level this afternoon. Early calls have corn and wheat flat and beans steady to 2c firmer. 2008 |
## 1600 22/06/11 -- The overnights closed lower with beans down 6-7c, corn down 3-5c on old crop and 6-8c on new crop and wheat falling mostly around 10-15c. Outside markets are also weaker. The dollar is firmer ahead of today's Fed press conference, and the euro is still nervous despite the Greek government's vote of confidence. They must now push through another round of large austerity cuts as a precondition for the next tranche of their IMF/EU loans. The Canadian Wheat Board say wheat plantings are 87% done, and unlikely to progress further than that. StatsCanada are due out this afternoon with their estimates. Ukraine have upped their 2011/12 grain export target to an ambitious 20-25 MMT from 19-20 MMT previously and an estimated 12.5 MMT in 2010/11. The world looks like having less wheat than we thought a few months ago, but still a bigger crop than last year. In addition, it's the cheap shops that are holding most of the aces. US pig and cattle numbers are seen falling in the second half of 2011 and beyond as producers shed numbers due to high feed costs. That's a situation that could well be being replicated here in Europe right now too. The bulls might be a bit deflated that they haven't managed to get their recovery going for more than one or two sessions. The market still seems to want to go lower. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-7c, wheat down 8-10c, beans down 6-8c. 2008 |
## 1602 21/06/11 -- The overnights closed firmer on bargain hunting with beans up 11-13c, corn up 13-15c and wheat 8-11c higher. NYMEX crude oil is almost a dollar firmer and the US dollar a bit weaker, both of which are supportive. US weather is turning hotter and drier, which maybe won't do too much harm. Plantings have caught up for corn and beans, although still lag for spring wheat. Canadian sowings are also behind. There's a bit more optimism about that Greece will get the bailout it needs, hence a vibe that prices have fallen enough for now. Some recent tender/purchasing activity from assorted buyers is encouraging the notion that the bottom-pickers are out. All bets could be off pending developments in Greece this afternoon. Fitch and S&P's have both said that a softening on lending by commercial banks being lent on by government in the likes of France and Germany would be considered a default anyway. That would lead to a lowering of Greece's already pants credit rating, meaning that some lenders would be forced to offload their Greek assets according to the BBC. The newly reshuffled government face a confidence vote tonight. We might as well forget here and now what the grain market fundamentals are. If, and it could be more likely when, Greece goes down the pan fund money may stampede for the exit door rapido. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 13-15c higher, wheat 8-10c firmer and soybeans up 10-12c. 2008 |
## 1612 17/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, but mostly higher with corn and beans both around 4-6c firmer, and with wheat generally 2-6c lower. Crude oil is a bit easier and the dollar slightly firmer, both negative influences. Last night's planting progress was better than expected for beans and corn. For beans yesterday's crush data was negative and so too were weekly export inspections. Spring wheat plantings continue to lag however, and winter wheat crop conditions continue to slip. Spring grain plantings in Russia and Ukraine seem to have caught up after a slow start. Ukraine in particular look nailed on for a decent harvest and are likely to adopt a hit the ground running approach to the 2011/12 export campaign. Cash-strapped Russia and Kazakhstan may not be too far behind either. Think the January sales in Primark, Matalan and TKMaxx and you're not too far away. If it's not nailed to the floor it'll be going on a boat for overseas. European concerns remain. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 4-6c, beans up 3-5c, wheat flat to up 2c. 2008 |
## 1613 16/05/11 -- The overnights closed higher with wheat up around 7-9c, corn up 6-9c and beans 3-4c firmer. Oil is down, gold steady and the US dollar a little higher. Fresh news is limited, we won't have the USDA's planting progress and crop conditions data until after the close tonight. Soybean planting is expected at around 20% complete, with corn a little past halfway done. QT Weather are forecasting drying where needed (except for Ohio) in the Western Corn Belt and welcome rains for HRW wheat areas on the Plains. Most areas will have lower than normal temperatures this week, they add. Rumours that China bought US corn last week persist. They are just rumours, and they're possibly being put about by bulls unhappy to have seen prices fall 87c in the past three weeks despite the late plantings rhetoric. Soybeans remain the weakest link after a succession of disappointing weekly export sales and ideas that any unplanted corn acres will get switched into beans. In addition the NOPA soybean crush for April was 121.3 million bushels, well below expectations of 127.8 million bushels. That's also much lower than the 134.4 million crushed in March and the 131.7 million in April 2010. In the longer term, bulls should be mindful that here in Europe we've just seen one of our own flagship bioethanol refineries take some unscheduled downtime, little more than twelve months after opening. The vulnerability (and viability) of the US ethanol industry facing the withdrawal of the 45c/gallon subsidy at the end of the year may also be called into question. The USDA have just confirmed the sale of 125,000 MT of corn to S. Korea for the 2010/2011 marketing year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn Up 6-10c, Wheat Up 8-10c, Beans Up 3-5c. Beans could lag on the back of the NOPA crush data and anticipation of a corn planting number lower than the 50-60% that most are expecting. 2008 |
## 1641 09/05/11 -- There's no sign of an extension to last week's commodities slump so far, with crude and other energies, metals and softs mostly starting the week posting significant gains. That's lent a positive tone to grains, adding to some bullish fundamentals, sending Globex wheat up 12-17c overnight, with corn up around 6-10c and soybeans up 6-8c. Temperatures in the 90's over the weekend, touching low 100's in places, combined with high winds will have caused more damage to an already hurting badly US HRW wheat crop. The USDA will report on crop conditions tonight, so we can probably expect further declines from last week's 34% good/excellent. Ironically of course further north in the Dakotas what wouldn't they give for some warmth and dryness to help spring wheat plantings advance from just 10% done last week as opposed to 43% a year previously. The USDA will also report on corn planting progress, that was just 13% done last week. The trade is hoping for a figure around 35-40% this time round. That sounds a bit optimistic to me, but we shall see. Whilst bullish stories exist for corn and wheat, there aren't too many for soybeans so they may be the weakest leg for the time being. South America is just about done harvesting another large crop, record in the case of Brazil. China seems to have packed up it's bat and ball as far as soybean purchasing goes. The Chinese renminbi, or yuan, has hit an all-time high against the dollar this morning. Potentially drought busting rains arrived for East, Central and South China over the weekend, with some places getting a reported 100mm between Sunday morning and 2 pm local time this afternoon. Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 8-10c, beans up 6-8c, wheat up 14-16c. 2008 |
## 1648 10/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher, with wheat leading the way up 18-20c nearby, with corn up mostly 2-4c and soybeans rising around 10-12c in the main. Wheat led following last night's USDA report showing sluggish spring planting progress and another fall in winter wheat crop condition ratings. Corn rose despite better than anticipated progress with spring plantings, which may have been viewed as slightly friendly for soybeans. Many parts of Kansas got their earliest 100F day of the year yesterday, to further add to the woes of the HRW wheat crop there. China posted a hefty trade surplus of USD11.4 billion in April as exports hit a record. That may increase tensions with the US who are concerned that Beijing is deliberately holding back the yuan's appreciation in order to boost exports. Crude oil is down, although off session lows, ahead of stocks figures from the American Petroleum Institute that are expected to show US inventories rising 1.5 million barrels which would take them close to their highest in the last two years. Margins have been raised from USD6,750 to almost USD8,500 for trading crude on NYMEX, effective after the close of business today, according to Bloomberg which may discourage some spec money. The USDA are out tomorrow with their May WASDE report, which may prompt some book-squaring this afternoon. Given the slackening off in the recent pace of US corn and soybean exports there could be a little tinkering with old crop stocks getting revised higher. There is also a case for lowering Chinese soybean imports. European weather concerns remain, although the BBC are giving heavy rain showers for northern France on Saturday and scattered lighter showers for much of Germany this side of the weekend. Most parts of the UK continue to see spotty showers, although peak wheat production areas in the SE are faring the worst. Crops are looking good in Ukraine, with less than 6% of winter grains rated as poor. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 8-10c, corn up 6-8c, wheat up 15-20c. 2008 |
## 1655 11/05/11 -- The USDA report came in bearish. Old crop bean and corn stocks were increased by virtue of lower exports and lower US wheat production was matched by a sharp increase from the FSU countries. Potential wheat yield losses in Europe and Canada seem to have been largely ignored, at least for now. Wheat exports from the FSU were also ratcheted sharply higher for 2011/12. Whilst Brazil's soybean crop was revised a million tonnes higher to a record 73 MMT. Early thoughts on next season's production were pencilled in as 72.5 MMT for Brazil and 53 MMT for Argentina. China's soybean import requirement for 2010/11 was cut to 54.5 MMT, but estimated at a healthy 58 MMT for next season. Where we close may be more important than where we open, which is estimated to be sharply lower. Will bottom pickers enter the fray on the lows, or will we quickly crash to limit down? Crude oil is offering no support down a dollar and a half or so, with gold also negative and the US dollar higher. Early calls are beans down 20-25c, corn down 20-30c and wheat down 10-15c. 2008 |
## 1660 12/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed sharply lower in follow through action from yesterday and what looks like another wave of broad-based commodity selling as the end of US QE2 approaches. Wheat ended 15-20c lower, with corn down 10-17c and soybeans falling 17-19c. Crude is almost two and a half dollars lower and now well beneath USD100/barrel after yesterdays bearish stocks data. US crude supplies rose by 3.8 million barrels last week the US Energy Dept said yesterday, more than double what the market was expecting. Other energies, metals and softs are also mostly lower whilst the dollar is higher. China's central bank have increased it's bank reserve requirements again, this time by another 50 basis points. That may hurt commodity demand in general from the world's second largest consumer. The USDA's bearish production and stocks data released yesterday continues to hang over the grains markets. Soybean bulls were hoping for a ray of light from today's weekly export sales numbers but they didn't get it. Weekly soybean export sales were just 59,000 MT old crop and 3,300 MT new crop. That's the second sub-100,000 MT week in a row - a feat usually only achieved right at the end of the marketing year. Wheat and corn export sales were better at a combined 550,500 MT and 467,500 MT respectively. Wheat shipments of of 1,026,500 MT were a marketing-year high, whereas soybean exports fell to just 180,600 MT. Soybean sales have really hit the skids recently with China absent for a second week in a row. There are still some bullish stories out there, especially for US wheat, but if the funds want out then the funds want out and that's the end of it we go lower. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 15-20c lower, corn down 10-15c, wheat down 15-18c. 2008 |
## 1671 13/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with beans 2-4c lower, corn 1 1/2c higher on old crop July but 4 1/2c lower on new crop Dec, and wheat 4 1/4c higher on front month July then mixed either side. Crude is 75c weaker on reports that Saudi Arabia is to go it alone and ramp up production anyway, despite getting the thumbs down from OPEC last week. The dollar is weaker on rising US unemployment and signs of a faltering in the global economic recovery. Not a lot has changed weather-wise from last week with extensive flooding along the Missouri River and parts of the Mississippi. The USDA will report tonight on corn and soybean planting progress and also winter wheat harvesting. Spring wheat plantings will also be in the limelight. Corn plantings may have moved up from 94% to around 97%, and that is likely to be about as far as they do progress. Soybean plantings have more time and are expected to go from 68% to somewhere in the top 80's done. Spring wheat planting was 79% complete last week. European grains are lower after decent weekend rains and the outlook for more in many parts. The clock is ticking on the early barley harvest in Ukraine, and also on the re-opening of the Russian export season. Some trade talk suggests that Russia may follow Ukraine and install some sort of export duty system. My contacts over there however suggest that this is unlikely. Corn bulls will doubtless be setting their sights on attempting to break through USD8/bu this week, having only failed by a whisker to crash through that mark for the first time in history last week. We've got to wait until Thursday's export sales report to see how much rationing is taking place with corn values where they are. As that seems likely to include last week's sale to Mexico of 822,960 MT then we should see export sales of around 1.2-1.5 MMT. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 1-3c; old crop corn up 1-3c, new crop down 2-4c; soybeans down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1677 14/06/11 -- The overnights closed lower with beans down around 4-6c, corn 10-14c weaker and wheat 2-4c lower on old crop and 7-13c down on new crop. Corn is leading the pack lower, despite last week's bullish USDA report on news that corn planting in the US is amazingly 99% done. Talk of ethanol plants idling due to high prices and poor margins is also seen as a negative factor. Corn crop conditions improved week on week to 69% good/excellent. News that the Senate are due to vote today on whether or not to repeal the costly ethanol tax credit could prove to be crucial in terms of corn demand and therefore ending stocks for 2011/12. Under Senate rules the amendment needs the support of 60 of the chamber's 100 members to get passed. Given the weight of speculative length a yes vote could trigger some very significant corn liquidation, with wheat and soybeans also likely to get caught in the crossfire. China has raised it's bank reserve requirements for the ninth time since October after data showed inflation there rising in May to 5.5 percent, its highest level in almost three years. Egypt and Algeria are in the market to buy wheat, for the first time in four months in the case of the former. Breaking news confirms that Egypt bought one 60,000 MT cargo each of French and US wheat. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 10-12c, wheat down 2-4c, beans down 4-6c. 2008 |
## 1690 16/06/11 -- The overnights closed lower again with beans down around 12-14c, corn 7-11c easier and wheat 4-8c weaker. Wonder if we may have fallen enough these past few sessions to flush out one or two bargain hunters this afternoon? The market certainly has a different feel to it this week, even though there are plenty of bullish stories about. July corn is down 72 1/4 cents from last Friday's close with July CBOT wheat falling 58 3/4 cents and July beans down 33 3/4 cents. Weekly export sales from the USDA were within the range of trade estimates, although nothing spectacular. The dollar is firm as investors shun the euro, and crude oil is flat. S. Korea has bought 55,000 MT of corn from Cargill, Japan has bought 259,303 MT of US/Canadian/Oz wheat for August delivery. Algeria has bought 350,000 MT of probably French wheat and also 50,000 MT of feed barley. For the time being market direction will be led by the funds willingness to continue to liquidate longs, with almost all other factors playing second fiddle. Who was it that said speculators aren't driving global commodity prices again? They drove them up and they're driving them back down again now from where I am standing. Early calls for this afternoon's Magical Mystery Tour: corn down 8-10c, wheat down 6-8c, beans down 12-14c. 2008 |
## 1700 06/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with corn down 8-10c, beans down 6-8c and wheat falling 10-12c. Crude is lower on global economy fears and the dollar is broadly unchanged. Weekend rains in northern France and central/western parts of Germany are the bearish catalyst today. More rain is forecast for both for the next few days with the SE of the UK and western parts of Poland also seen picking up varying amounts. There's speculation that Russia may have more carryover stocks left from 2010 than official figures suggest. We've already seen them undercut US wheat substantially in one or two tenders in the past few days, with Ukraine then usurping Russia by coming in even cheaper. That probably sets the tone for many of the tenders that will come out of the Middle East and north Africa for much of the remainder of 2011. Algeria seems to be still excluding Black Sea origin grain though, booking 600,000 MT of probably French wheat over the weekend. Ukraine will produce will produce 43.4-48.7 MMT of grains in 2011 depending on weather conditions between now and harvest-time, say APK-Inform. They also have significantly larger than normal carryover old crop stocks. With a domestic demand of only 14.7 MMT there's going to be plenty to sell on the international market. The US markets appear to be trading semi-oblivious to the notion that the balance of export power is switching back to the Black Sea, where price is an almost secondary consideration. What is going on in their own flooded (or parched) backyard is of far more importance. The USDA will report on planting progress after the close tonight. Last week corn was 86% done, that should be in the 90-95% region today. Soybean plantings were only just past halfway, whilst spring wheat sowings were 68% complete. I expect to see bean plantings around the 70-75% mark tonight, leaving plenty of time left to get the remaining crop into the ground. Spring wheat planting delays in the northern Plains continue to see Minneapolis wheat, appropriately enough, paddle it's own canoe. Early call for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 8-10c, beans down 6-8c, wheat down 10-12c. 2008 |
## 1708 08/06/11 -- The overnights closed mixed with wheat and corn failing rather miserably to hold onto early session gains. Beans finished 5-8c lower, with corn 2c up on old crop to 3c lower on new crop. Wheat was narrowly mixed either side of unchanged. Crude oil is lower and the dollar a bit firmer. The market is nervous ahead of tomorrow's USDA stocks and WASDE data. Flooding along the entire length of the Missouri River is keeping spring plantings from completion. Minneapolis wheat has opened up a large gap between it and Chicago and is now trading with huge volatility having closed almost limit down last night. It's had a USD1.38 trading range in the last two sessions after rallying to a new contract high of USD11.20 on Monday it closed at USD9.84 3/4 last night. Historically the USDA does not change its spring wheat production forecast in June, having only done so once since 1990. Only minor changes are expected to the 2010/11 ending stocks estimates from last month, the 2011/12 carryout will be potentially more interesting. There has to be a distinct possibility that they will increase US wheat exports in the coming marketing year due to an expected cut in EU exports/production on the back of the drought here. There is also a risk of a lower US winter wheat production estimate although early harvesting reports coming out of Kansas and Oklahoma report perhaps better than expected yields. That is better than what the farmer expected, not necessarily better than what the USDA had pencilled in. Corn ending stocks for next season are expected to be trimmed from 900 million bushels to 817 million, although the lowest estimate in the range of analysts prediction is 548 million, so there's a pretty wide spread there. By comparison soybean ending stocks are not expected to alter too much, rising from 170 million to 173 million in 2010/11 and from 160 million to 162 million in 2011/12. Assorted analysts have cut their French wheat production estimates in the past 24 hours, indicating a crop of around 14-19% down on 2010. In Brazil, Conab say that the final tally on the soybean crop there was a record 74.9 MMT, up 8.5% on last season. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 2c firmer to 1c lower, beans 6-8c lower, wheat 1-2c firmer. 2008 |
## 1733 31/05/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed but mostly lower led by wheat which fell around 15-17c following the news coming out of Russia. Corn was a cent up on old crop and 4-5c weaker on new crop, beans were mixed. Crude oil is around USD1.75/barrel firmer, which should lend support as should a weaker dollar. Reports suggest that Ukraine has already been a busy little bee making new crop wheat sales to Africa and the Middle East in the few days since it lifted it's export restrictions. Russia will surely be busy on the phone right now too. Parts of Western Australia saw up to 50mm of rain over the weekend, which should aid winter wheat plantings. The SE of England, France, Germany and Poland are all in the grip of varying degrees of drought. Yields will undoubtedly be affected but nobody seems to have a clear handle on by how much. Some speculate that France's exportable wheat surplus could more than halve. The USDA will report on planting progress for corn, beans and spring wheat tonight together with winter wheat crop conditions. Although wheat is the weakest leg today, tomorrow things could look different armed with those numbers. Dockers in Rosario are threatening a port blockade in a dispute with fertilizer company Mosaic. The IGC say that China may produce a record 170 MMT of corn this year. Rabobank say that Chinese corn imports could at least double. Sounds exciting doesn't it, although twice of not that much really is still not much really in the overall scheme of things. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 15-20c lower, corn steady to 3c lower, beans 2-4c easier. 2008 |
## 1739 01/06/11 -- The overnights closed mostly lower, led by wheat which finished with losses of around 10-12c, corn was 2-5c lower and beans down 1-3c. Crude is a tad lower and the dollar barely changed. Wheat is lower on the back of the Russian news and also some ideas that France and Germany may be in for a wet weekend. QT Weather are forecasting a much wetter period seen starting late this week and lasting into mid-June. They're giving 0.5-1.0 inches in Western France and up to 2-4 inches for the rest of France and into Germany & Poland. Two weeks from now these rains are seen spreading east into Eastern Europe and the FSU, whilst continuing in France and Germany, they add. In the US, a the warmer and drier outlook should be favourable for early crop development and planting of what is left to go into the ground. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 10-12c, corn down 3-5c, beans down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1745 02/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat around 6-10c firmer, beans up 3-5c and corn trading fractions either side. Crude is slightly firmer and the dollar a tad weaker. The USDA weekly export sales report is delayed until tomorrow after Monday's Memorial Day holiday. Also out tomorrow are some pretty important US jobs numbers, the vibe is that they could send the dollar into a tailspin. Fresh news is pretty limited. Algeria are tendering for 50,000 MT of any origin wheat with the results expected any day now. It will be interesting to see if the Black Sea gets the nod, and if so exactly how much cheaper than EU/US origin they are. Lebanon are also said to be in the market. Wheat's overnight action can probably be attributed to nothing more than a rebound from 60c losses since last Friday after the Russian export ban was lifted over the long weekend. Linn Group put out some pretty bearish planting numbers for corn, beans and wheat yesterday. They can't be right on all three can they? Things certainly look pretty washed out in Canada too at the moment it has to be said. It seems like we are about to see the global grains supply pipeline switch from West to East. The West was only too happy to accept the baton from the East last summer, and wheat prices have moved up more than three dollars a bushel since then. The question now is how will prices fare with the lookie, lookie, for you I make special price men of the East back in charge of the game? Whilst we are considering that one, there's also the point that the futures markets that are driving the bus are still located in the West. That may mean that they are more likely to concentrate on what is happening here (ie production problems), than what is happening there (ie the shops are open 24/7 and the sales are on). Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 7-10c, beans up 3-5c, corn 2c higher to 2c lower. 2008 |
## 1750 03/06/11 -- The overnights closed mixed with beans and wheat around 3-5c firmer and corn 1-2c lower. Jobs data just out from the US is being described as horrible and shockingly bearish by some. US non farm payrolls rose by only 54,000 last month, well below expectations of an increase of around the 165,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. US unemployment rose from 9% to 9.1%, analysts had expected a fall to 8.9%. On the back of those numbers crude oil is down USD1.65/barrel to USD98.75/barrel on concerns that the US may be heading for a double dip recession, backed up by news of US house prices falling to 2002 levels. Wall Street is expected to open lower on the news too. The question this afternoon is can the grains sector ignore these outside influences? Yesterday was all about fund money as they weighed in for an estimated 12,000 corn, 6,000 beans and 3,500 wheat contracts. Will they have the stomach to be back for more today ahead of the weekend? Paris wheat is a little lower on the back of forecasts for fairly widespread rain for France and Germany over the weekend. If the funds don't show up this afternoon then we could be heading lower I'd suggest. Weekly export sales numbers from the USDA were all within trade expectations, although it is notably that soybean sales have fallen away sharply of late. Early calls: wheat and beans up 3-5c and corn unchanged to 2c lower 2008 |
## 1752 23/05/11 -- The overnight grains started higher but closed lower with wheat down 8-10c, corn 2-4c lower and beans down 4-6c. Dollar strength on the back of the old faithful flight to safety was the theme following credit downgrades for Italy and Greece. The euro slumped below 1.40 against the dollar for the first time since mid-March on the back of that. Crude oil is also sharply lower, down a little over USD3.00/barrel on NYMEX and with Brent falling by a similar amount. Slow US planting progress is what everyone is still talking about, the USDA will reveal how slow is slow tonight. Corn is expected to be 75-80% done, with beans maybe around the 40% mark and spring wheat up near halfway. North Dakota, the leading spring wheat producing state, was only 15% planted last week compared to 68% normally. May 25 is the normal cut-off date for sowing, according to Martell Crop Projections. Across the border Canadian sowings also still lag, very similar to last season. The USDA have Canadian wheat production set to recover 2 MMT to 18.5 MMT this year. Given that this year’s crop conditions are almost identical to those of twelve months ago then that is probably a somewhat optimistic assessment. France, Germany and the SE of the UK continue way too dry. Official production estimates there from the likes of the USDA and Coceral are probably all very much on the high side of reality. Western Australia has had some rain, but could certainly do with a bucket full more as wheat plantings there get underway. China imported 3.88 MMT of soybeans in April, according to customs data, a near 8% fall on April 2010. There are plenty of bullish fundamentals amongst that lot as you can see. The question is can the grains get themselves disentangled from the outside markets? It could also be argued that whilst the fundamentals now point higher, possibly we shouldn't be at the current starting point at where we now find ourselves. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 8-10c, corn down 2-4c, beans down 4-6c. 2008 |
## 1761 24/05/11 -- The overnights closed mixed with wheat mostly 5-6c lower, beans 6-8c higher and corn 3-5c lower. Crude oil is the best part of two dollars firmer which should support after Goldman Sachs raised their price outlook on crude. Goldman did however lower their outlook on corn and soybean prices. A firm dollar may cap gains. Weather is mixed, some are saying conducive for planting advancement. HRW wheat may see some decent rains too. Planting prospects appear to have improved in Western Australia. China say that they are in for a record corn and wheat crop this year and India say that they will harvest a record amount of wheat. Last night's soybean export inspections were a bit slack again for soybeans, hinting at another week of disappointing sales. Fund money is set to begin rolling out of July longs as month end nears, which may see some erosion of old crop premiums over new crop. Japan are shopping for 157,000 MT of food wheat and Algeria are looking for 50,000 MT of durum. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 6-8c, wheat down 4-6c, corn down 3-5c. 2008 |
## 1764 25/05/11 -- The overnight grains finished mostly a little higher with beans leading the way up 6-7c, corn up 3-5c and wheat 3-4c higher. NYMEX crude is down 66c to USD98.93/barrel and the dollar is a touch firmer. On the US weather front it's a game of two halves. Beneficial rains have crossed the HRW wheat areas of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma, say WT Weather. Yet rain continues to hamper spring wheat (and corn and soybeans too) plantings further north. It's also still far to wet for timely spring sowing across the border on the Canadian Prairies. For the Midwest of the US it's a case of things look pretty good for what is already in the ground, it's a question of getting what's left sown. Some forecasts are calling for below normal rainfall with much above normal temps in the May 29th to June 8th timeframe. That would be helpful to those looking to get their crops into the ground, and should also be conducive to good crop development for those that already have. Nearby July contracts remain vulnerable to rolling of positions. Despite some recent liquidation open interest in July corn is well over half a million contracts, the equivalent of over 73 million tonnes! For July soybeans it's around 32.5 MMT. South Korea has reportedly bought South African corn, saying US corn was too dear. The trade will be scrutinising tomorrow's export sales report for further evidence of demand switching away from the US, and in the case of soybeans evaporating entirely. China has been rather conspicuous by it's absence lately. Domestic soybean stockpiles at the ports are still said to be at, or near, record levels. Ukraine has lifted it's grain export quota system, and is issuing bullish statements about crop production and export prospects for 2011/12. Everyone is now eyeing Russia for a similar move. Markets are expected to open higher, but I sense some nervousness, especially with a long weekend looming and the size of OI in July. Any faltering in early strength could signal another rush for the exits. Early calls: corn up 3-5c, beans up 6-8c, wheat up 3-5c. 2008 |
## 1774 26/05/11 -- The overnights closed firmer with wheat leading the way up 16c nearby, corn was up 4-5c and beans up 7-10c. Crude is a little lower and the dollar is weaker. Weekly export sales came in at a combined 432,300 MT for wheat (against expectations of 400-700,000 MT); 779,600 MT for corn (500-900,000 MT) and 163,200 MT for beans (150-325,000 MT). Lurking in amongst that lot was a 116,800 MT corn sale to China, switched from unknown. Huge it isn't, but the bulls won't care about that. The bulls have the upside momentum, there's little doubt about that. Yet somehow I just feel that for all this planting delays, we're gonna lose 2 million acres of corn Oh rhetoric that's kicking around most of it will get into the ground one way or another. Prices will see to that. The have just released their latest blind stab in the dark, pegging world wheat production at 667 , 5 lower than last month and 3 below the USDA. Consumption will also fall 3 from that predicted last month, with carryover stocks down 1 to a still healthy 185 , they say. Corn production is seen up 1 from last month, with consumption falling 1 and ending stocks rising 5 to 116 from what they reckoned in April. EU-27 wheat production was reduced 3 MMT to 141.1 MMT, with barley output cut by just 0.6 MMT to 54.3 MMT. They haven't got a clue have they, bless. I have this mental image of them all sat round in huge wing-backed leather arm chairs in an oak panelled gentleman's club somewhere, large whiskey in one hand with the other drawing balls out of a black felt bag. A bit like the draw for the FA Cup, but without Gary They can't wait to get the draw out of the way 'cos there's a free bar and sandwiches on in the other room. What size do you fancy on the Russian wheat crop this year Roderick? Buggered if I know old bean, pass the vol will you there's a good stick, what, what, what. I think I need the loo, where's the gents in this place. Nah, bugger it, too late. Clean that up will you old chap and get me another G&T after you've washed your hands...I knew a Russian girl once you know, Eva she was called, enormous ....Where am I again? Ah yes drawing the FA Cup...Charlton, are they still in it? Early calls for this afternoon's session: wheat up 15-17c, corn up 4-6c, beans up 8-10c. 2008 |
## 1785 31/10/11 -- The overnight grains are, appropriately enough for Hollowe'en, looking a bit spooked today. Relief over last week's European debt solution appears to have given way to doubt as traders took time out over the weekend to take a look at the small print, only to find that there wasn't any! Indeed, the details of the rescue plan are so sketchy that they could fit quite comfortably onto the back of a packet of Benson & Hedges with room to spare. There's also doubt that even if they could come up with a trillion euros to resolve the problem then even that would ne nowhere near enough. Breaking news today thrusts US brokerage firm MF Global into an unwanted spotlight after the Federal Reserve said that it had suspended the company from conducting business with the bank. As well as reporting a surprise USD17.9 million quarterly loss last week the company also revealed it has USD6.3 billion in exposure to short-term European sovereign debt. They have applied for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this morning, according to Reuters. That would make them the highest profile yet US casualty to the European debt crisis, highlighting that you don't just have to be in Europe to be exposed to this disaster (still) waiting to happen. This could certainly encourage some more risk-off activity when Chicago opens this afternoon. I'm surprised that the very early calls only see wheat and corn 6-8 cents lower and beans down 10-12 cents. The dollar is higher on the usual flight to safety, crude is more than a dollar and a half lower, also bearish factors for US grains. In other news Ukraine's Ministry have upped their forecast for this year's grain harvest to a record 54 MMT. The corn harvest now stands at 14.1 MMT off 68% of the planted area. Recent corn sales to the Far East, an unusual customer for Ukraine, highlight how aggressive they are now likely to be this season now that export duties have been lifted. They also swept aside even Russia in a weekend tender for wheat from Egypt too. 2008 |
## 1791 03/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, but mostly lower with beans down around 10-12c, corn 2-4c easier on old crop and 6-8c firmer on new crop, wheat was down 2-5c. Crude oil is almost a dollar and a half weaker on the back of the Bin Laden news and the dollar is firmer. Both are negative for grains. Metals are also lower. Corn is up on new crop after last night's disappointing planting progress data, although the outlook for the week ahead promises some ground to be made up this week. Even so it's already a given that next Monday's numbers will also be well behind normal for this time of year. US winter wheat crop conditions showed a further slight deterioration, whilst spring plantings are well behind. As mentioned earlier the whole thing looks tired, despite there being plenty of bullish stories out there. Bizarrely, the size of fund length, and their willingness (or otherwise) to hang onto it, might be the most bearish factor around. This week's export sales report will be of interest. Is demand for US corn and soybeans slipping? I think so, and it may be another disappointing set of numbers on Thursday. China are to auction off another 300,000 MT of soybeans tomorrow, suppressing the need for imports. Celeres have upped their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 72.55 MMT. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12c, corn down 2-4c old crop and up 4-6c on new crop, wheat down 3-5c. 2008 |
## 1796 04/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, mostly lower but well off session lows, with beans down 4-6c, wheat down 3-7c and corn up one to down a quarter. Crude is around half a dollar easier and the USD is setting fresh lows against many of the major currencies. Outside markets like metals are also mostly lower. There aren't too many changes in fundamentals. Corn planting is well behind and although the outlook for the Midwest is warmer it also comes along with further rain. Current weather conditions are more bullish for corn and wheat than they are for later planted beans. In addition South American soybean production estimates keep creeping up, and Chinese buying interest - such as it is - appears to be switching down there too. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report could be more important than usual following a dismal showing from corn and beans last week, more of the same could encourage further fund liquidation regardless of market fundamentals. There is now some fairly widespread chatter of funds picking up their bat and ball and looking elsewhere for a new cash cow. Almost regardless of what the fundamentals say that would mean lower prices too. In the US, anti-ethanol voices are getting louder. In the EU there is also finally talk questioning the green credentials of biofuels. US ethanol production figures out later today could be vital for funds still holding significant volumes old crop corn. China's weekly soybean auction attracted no bids. Tunisia is shopping for 50,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, excluding Russian/Ukraine shit. The market still feels toppy to me, and due another downside correction. Will it be today, tomorrow of Friday? Early calls don't suggest that it will be today at this stage: corn mixed, beans down 4-6c and wheat 3-5c lower. 2008 |
## 1805 05/05/11 -- Having traded higher early on the overnight grains reversed that trend to close with beans down around 10-12c, corn 5-7c lower and wheat down 5-8c. Broad-based commodity liquidation is the theme for today again it would seem. Crude oil is down more than USD3.00/barrel as Brent crashed below support at USD120.00/barrel to currently trade around USD117.50/barrel. Rising US inventories and a slow down in offtake at these elevated levels are also to blame, but it's a mass exodus from commodities that seems mostly behind today's moves. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar and gas are all lower as well. On top of all that the dollar is having a rare up day. The grains couldn't have picked a worse day to come out with some pretty miserable export numbers, but that is exactly what has happened. Soybean export sales were just 21,000 MT of old crop, with no sales at all for new crop. The lowest combined weekly total in more than a year, and the second lowest since July 2005. Corn sales were also disappointing at 284,200 MT versus expectations of 350-650,000 MT. All those sales were old crop meaning that we had no new crop sales at all this week for either corn or soybeans. That's the first time that has happened since before Christmas. Wheat did at least manage to post a respectable sales total of 549,600 MT - in line with trade expectations for sales of 300-600,000 MT. Day two of the Kansas wheat tour pegs yields in the state at 33.4 bushels an acre, down 16% on 39.9 bu/acre last year. All the same old weather concerns that we had yesterday are still here today, but this has the vibe of a fundamentals go out the window sort of an afternoon. Early calls: soybeans down 10-12c, old crop corn down 5-7c & new crop down 2-3c, wheat down 4-6c. I can easily see beans trading 20-30c down within half an hour of the opening. 2008 |
## 1812 06/05/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, but mostly lower with beans down 2-4c, corn down 10-12 and wheat mostly 1-2c firmer. Just like Kate Middleton, crude oil too a right royal rogering yesterday which spilled over into morning action although it appears to have recovered some of it's composure by early afternoon. Straightening it's hair and applying a little mascara, NYMEX and Brent crude are almost back to unchanged levels having been five dollars down earlier in the day. Continuing with the royal analogy (nice pun Nogger), bottom picking might be the order of the day this afternoon, along with a couple of stiff G&T's and a flick through Harpers & Queen before a visit to Boots the Chemist. China says that spring grain plantings there are significantly ahead, whilst things are progressing nicely in Ukraine and even Russia seems to have caught up with some of it's arrears. The US wheat crop isn't looking too bright, although carryover stocks are relatively plentiful, the question is will the market see it that way? Corn plantings in the US lag, we wont know until Monday night how much progress has been made this week. The best planting window isn't likely to arrive until May 14th, say QT Weather. The UK is in for rain today through to Monday with the outlook unsettled for most of next week. France, Germany and Poland have less chances of much needed rain though. Egypt say that with it's own new crop wheat, it has sufficient stocks to not need to enter the import market for eight months. China is also making itself conspicuous by it's absence from the soybean market. US unemployment has risen to 9.0% compared with expectations of 8.8%. Are we in for a bargain hunting or long liquidation afternoon? Early calls on Chicago are: beans down 2-4c, corn down 8-10c, wheat 1-34c firmer. 2008 |
## 1819 11/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mostly lower, with the exception of nearby corn which was 1-2c firmer. Apart from that most other months on corn were around 2-5 lower. Wheat closed around 3-6c easier and beans were down 10c or so. Corn set a new high in early overnight trade, and beans and wheat were also showing significant gains at one point before falling away. Comments by COFCO that Chinese crush margins are poor, and processors there are only running at 40% capacity and may look to cancel/defer existing soybean purchases may have been behind the demise of soybeans. Certainly US export sales have been a bit on the low side recently. Brazil looks like bringing in a record soybean harvest as bumper yields in the south make up for some rain-induced yield losses further north. Paraguay are also expected to bring in a record 8 MMT crop this year due to higher yields. Competition for America will also soon start to come from Argentina, where the soybean harvest is 21% done, according to the Ag Ministry there. Parts of parched Oklahoma got almost 3 in of rain over the weekend, and although rains were lighter in other areas, many saw an inch or so of precious moisture. A 7.1 on the Richter scale earthquake hit Fukushima again this morning, exactly a month after the original tremor shook global markets. A ceasefire plan in Libya has supposedly been agreed to by Gaddafi and negotiators from the African Union are said to be on their way to Benghazi to meet with rebel leaders. Crude is a a bit weaker on the back of that. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-2c, beans down 8-10c, wheat down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1823 12/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with wheat down around 11-13c, corn off 5-7c and soybeans 8-10c easier. Another earthquake in Japan overnight and the increase of the severity rating of the nuclear crisis there to 7 spooked the market. Golden Sacks are recommending cashing in a few chips at these levels for many commodities. Although we believe that on a 12-month horizon the (commodity) basket still has upside potential, in the near term, risk-reward no longer favours being long the basket and we are recommending closing the position, said Goldman commodities strategist Jeffrey Currie. Brent crude is down a dollar and a quarter and NYMEX has fallen more than two dollars. Gold and most other metals are also weaker. Last night's crop conditions report rated Kansas wheat 37% poor-very poor, the worst early April condition report since 2002 when wheat was 40% poor-very poor, according to Martell Crop Projections. That year only 270.6 million bushels of wheat was harvested in the state, down 36% from the 1997-2001 average. Sixteen percent of wheat land was ploughed up compared with 5% normally in the top US wheat state, they add. Reports continue to circulate of Chinese soybean cancellations and/or deferrals. Thursday's USDA weekly export sales report will be interesting to see if it throws up any evidence of this. Also of interest will be the volume of corn sold in the past week, will there be any sign of price-rationing at these levels? Personally I think that soybean sales will be poor and that corn sales will probably be pretty strong. Brazil's harvest is now more than three-quarters done, and what's left to come in is down in the south where yields are bumper. People down here are getting slowly desperate with big crop and not quite so big storage. Everything seems to be coming out of the fields at the same time and we’re not seeing anywhere near enough ships loading to help us out of the bind, says my man in RGdS. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10c, wheat down 10-12c, corn down 5-7c. 2008 |
## 1837 26/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with beans down around 8-10c, wheat off a similar amount and corn down 4-6c. Crude oil is flat and so too is the dollar. Saudi Arabia bought 275,000 MT of US/Australian wheat and Iraq 300,000 MT split between the same two origins over the long weekend. Japan is looking for 342,518 MT of wheat this week of which 164,000 MT is US origin. The USDA last night reported corn plantings at only 9% complete, up just two points in a week, and well below the 23% five year average. Spring wheat plantings also lag at 6% against 25% normally and 39% last year. Winter wheat ratings good/excellent fell from 36% to 35% and poor/very poor increased from 38% to 40%. In Oklahoma only 5% of the crop is rated in the top two categories. Wheat producers in North Dakota are looking to begin fieldwork, not seeding, by May 6. It would be the latest date for ground preparation in the decade, say Martell Crop Projections. Kansas wheat areas are finally getting rain late in April. Showers have produced some useful rain in the past few days, but less than 20% of wheat has benefited from widely scattered showers, they add. European winter wheat conditions also remain a concern, as too must the slug-like pace of Russian spring plantings, where little more than a million hectares have so far been seeded against a government target of 30 million. Stats Canada say that Canadian farmers will plant 24.724 million acres of wheat this year, 17.4% up on 2010. Rapeseed plantings are also seen sharply higher - up 14.3%. Celeres say that the Brazilian soybean harvest is 91% complete and in Argentina the Ministry there say it's 52% done. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 4-6c lower, wheat down 6-8c, beans down 8-10c. 2008 |
## 1852 28/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with beans around 5-8c higher, corn up 3c on old crop to down 5c on new crop and wheat 3-4c easier. The dollar is lower following last night's indication from the Fed that interest rates at an effective zero are to stay for some time yet. Weather forecasts are just a little more conducive for a drying out phase in the corn belt, hence a slight weakening of new crop corn. Old crop remains steady on stocks tightness. Weekly export sales for corn were disappointing at 349,000 MT of old crop and just 94,700 MT of new crop. That's the worst combined total of 2011 so far, and the lowest old crop sales volume since mid-October. Soybean sales also came in below expectations at a combined 199,200 MT, whilst wheat sales were in line with trade ideas at 418,200 MT against expectations of 350-550,000 MT. China bought just one cargo of US beans this week - 55,500 MT of new crop. I'm just starting to get a little uneasy about China. Firstly, there's been no confirmation at all of the widely-touted recent US corn sales to them. Secondly, they've now actually said that they intend to limit corn usage for industrial purposes. And thirdly, their insatiable demand for commodities is showing signs of having in fact been satisfied as imports slow. There's talk of restrictions on corn usage for non-food purposes also being extended into soybeans too. Some estimates now peg China's soybean imports this year at around 53-54 MMT compared to the USDA's 57 MMT, that would be the first season that we've seen a year-on-year decline in imports since 2003/04. As they continue to wrestle with inflation and a housing bubble, there's also talk of another Chinese interest rate rise looming over the weekend. The booming Chinese economy has been the saviour of the commodities markets over the past three years since the slump of 2008, being almost single-handedly responsible for getting the show back on the road. What happens if the engine has seized? Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 6-8c, corn up 2-4c, wheat down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1861 18/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed, with wheat around 10-12c firmer, corn 2-3c lower and beans fractions either side of unchanged. Crude oil is down a dollar and a half and the dollar is a bit steadier. Wheat was up on lower than anticipated weekend rains in Kansas, and a growing awareness that European grain crops are starting to suffer from lack of rain too. The northern Plains and Canadian Prairies have the opposite problem. The USDA will report after the close tonight on winter wheat crop conditions and corn planting progress. Rabobank say that China will only import 53 MMT of soybeans this year, 4 MMT less than the USDA's latest prediction. The Chinese central bank increased bank reserve requirements again this weekend. Ukraine say that almost 94% of it's winter grains are in good/satisfactory condition. Russia dismiss talk of an early return to the grain export market, saying that the embargo will last until July at the least. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 10-12c, corn down 2-3c old crop and up 3-5c new crop, beans mixed. 2008 |
## 1879 21/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed with wheat around 4-5c higher and corn & soybeans up 5-7c. Outside markets are supportive with crude and gold higher and the dollar weaker. It's a three day weekend in Chicago, with the markets re-opening Sunday night whilst the rest of us get a deserved extra day off. Liffe/Euronext is closed both Friday and Monday. Whilst early calls are higher, there could be some pre-weekend book-squaring. Corn put in a sad performance yesterday and whilst much of the latest impetus has come from delayed US spring plantings, given that the forecasts have just turned slightly more beneficial in the last 24 hours, we may see some weakness re-emerge again this afternoon if long-holders decide to trim their positions further as forecasts could be very different by Monday. Weekly export sales were strong again for corn, although they were expected to be so at a combined 857,300 MT. Soybean sales were above expectations at 555,300 MT, whilst wheat sales were below trade ideas at 303,200 MT. There were no Chinese cancellations of US soybeans, indeed they booked 176,500 MT of old crop and 165,000 MT of new crop. Still, reports suggest that they have been cancelling/deferring South American purchases. For wheat, US, EU and Russian crop problems haven't gone away, although noises coming out of Ukraine suggest that confidence in a decent crop there in 2011 is running pretty high. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and beans 5-7c higher, wheat up 3-5c. 2008 |
## 1884 14/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with wheat down 14-16c, corn around 8c easier and soybeans down 11-13c. Crude is around a dollar lower whilst the USD is showing little change. The USDA's weekly export sales report was bullish corn, bearish beans and neutral wheat. Beans are staring to look like the poor relation, with export sales sluggish, production increases coming out of Brazil and demand from China not quite as insatiable as it has been. The Chinese government are set to auction off 3 MMT of state-owned soybean reserves at knock-down prices. Crush margins are poor and processors there are said to be running at well below capacity as analysts reduce their projected soybean import estimates for the world's largest buyer a little. China are said to have cancelled some cargoes of beans and be actively looking to reschedule others. On a domestic front in the US, the March NOPA crush came in more than a million higher than trade estimates at 134.39 million bushels. Higher than anticipated yields see the Paraguay agriculture ministry forecasting the nation's 2011 soybean crop now at a record 8.4 MMT, 1 MMT up on last year. Snow and cold temperatures across the northern US Plains may bring some beneficial moisture as far south as northern Kansas, say QT Weather. That may help HRW wheat a little, but it will also further delay spring wheat and corn planting further north. Stratégie Grains forecast grain production in the EU-27 in 2011 at 289.8 MMT, up 6% on last year's 273.6 MMT. Wheat production will account for 143.6 MMT of that, also up 6% from 135.1 MMT in 2010. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-7c, wheat down 12-14c, beans down 12-14c. 2008 |
## 1885 15/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mostly lower with wheat down around 2-4c and corn & beans both 5-7c easier. Crude oil is also lower. Goldman Sachs issued another it's time to reduce your commodity longs rallying call, the second in a week. The morning satellite image shows a violent storm in the United States midsection. Snow is developing in North Dakota. Northwest Kansas has a blizzard warning for 3-7 inches of snow today. Kansas has another chance for rain next week in a new developing storm, say Martell Crop Projections. That should be beneficial for HRW wheat, although not so kind for early plantings of spring wheat and corn further north and also across the border into Canada. Inflation in China is now running at 5.4% prompting fears of waning demand for commodities in general. That said, they've just been confirmed as buying 165,000 MT of new crop US soybeans this afternoon. Bean production in South America keeps creeping higher. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange upped their estimate for Argentine soybean output from 48.8 MMT to 49.2 MMT yesterday. They also increased their corn production estimate by 0.5 MMT to 20 MMT. Including the overnight price action we now see May beans down 67 1/4c, May corn down 21 1/2c and May CBOT wheat down 61c on the week so far. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and beans seen 5-7c lower with wheat down 2-4c. 2008 |
## 1894 04/04/11 -- The overnight grains were firmer, with corn hitting a more than two year high on continued concerns about extremely tight old crop supplies. Corn was up around 12c on old crop and 5c on new crop. Wheat was around 12-13c higher and soybeans up 4-5c. Outside markets are firmer, with Brent crude nearing USD120/barrel and gold, copper and silver also higher. It was another dry weekend in the southern Plains combined with high winds that will have potentially caused more damage to ailing winter wheat. The USDA will report on crop conditions after the close tonight in what probably won't make pretty reading. That may support wheat tonight and again in the morning once the figures are known. Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas wheat are all looking in a pretty sorry state. Meanwhile in the northern Plains cold and wet conditions aren't doing spring wheat plantings any favours either. Russian spring grain plantings are making slow progress, at only around half of last year's pace due to the late arrival of spring. Some welcome rain has arrived over the weekend for western Europe which will push eastwards as the week wears on. Sowing of Australian winter grains will get started at the end of the month and last through until June under what looks like almost ideal conditions. Winter wheat plantings are expected to be up almost half a million hectares on last year. The USDA are out on Friday with their world supply and demand numbers so we may end up treading a bit of water again this week until those are out. Before that we get the latest weekly export numbers on Thursday. Any appearance by a certain Far Eastern buyer amongst the corn sales would get the market all excited. Soybean sales may be a bit flat again, offering further evidence that Chinese demand has switched to South America. Beans look set to be the follower today also on reports that China is cancelling and/or deferring existing purchases of US beans. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session sees wheat up 12-14c, corn up 10-15c and soybeans 3-5c higher. 2008 |
## 1900 05/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with wheat the strongest leg of the trilogy on the back of last night's poor winter wheat crop ratings from the USDA. Beans and corn were a little lower as China raised interest rates by a quarter percent for the fourth time in five months. Seeing as the last three rises have done little to hurt demand for agri-commodities it looks unlikely that this one will either though. Beans closed around 7-10c lower, with corn down 4-6c and wheat a cent or two either side of unchanged. Brent crude is now firmly entrenched above USD120/barrel and the US dollar is weaker. The USDA pegged the winter wheat crop at only 37% good/excellent versus 65% a year ago, with the trade reckoning that this weekend's hot, dry and windy weather may have harmed the crop even further by the time next week's ratings come out. Wheat also continues to benefit from corn prices at multi-year highs and the narrow price gap between it and corn. In the Midwest and northern Plains cold and wet conditions aren't conducive to timely spring planting. Similar can be said for the Canadian Prairies. Ukraine's wheat, barley, rapeseed and corn crops have all been downsized. Whilst output is still seen ahead of last season, it won't be by as much as had been earlier anticipated. Funds appear to have regained their appetite for things, having bought an estimated 100,000 contracts of corn in the past three sessions. Whilst they remain in that sort of mood downside looks limited. The USDA have just reported the sale of 101,600 MT of corn to unknown. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 1-2c higher, corn down 3-5c, beans down 7-9c. 2008 |
## 1905 06/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed with beans around 9-10c higher, and corn & wheat narrowly mixed. Crude oil is a bit firmer and the dollar a little easier. May corn is 4c off yesterday's all-time high of 7.70 1/4, although it would be no enormous surprise to see it set a fresh record high this afternoon given the euphoric high-five cheerleading going on. An interesting report on the website throws this thought into the mix: Since last Wednesday's close, a Midwest farmer that uses 175 bpa for his corn calculations has seen new-crop revenue projections jump $90 per acre. If that same farmer uses 50 bpa for his soybean calculation, new-crop soybean revenue has increased just under $8 per acre. What message do you think he is getting? A valid point, well made. Given that almost all the talk at the moment surrounds extremely tight corn stocks, the need to ration demand, record prices, China has bought (the USDA just haven't confirmed it yet) and need more, and the insatiable demand from the ethanol sector then what would you do if you were a Midwest farmer? Plant more of course. From a demand perspective, the higher the price of corn, the more likely it is that the ethanol blenders tax credit won't get renewed at the end of the year, I'd say. That could have far more of an impact on US corn demand in the 2011/12 crop year than China buying the odd million or two. Of course, on the flip side, increased corn plantings may mean that soybean acreage is lower than the USDA currently predict. Meanwhile the water cavalry didn't arrive and the US winter wheat crop looks to be in a serious mess, and spring plantings look like being late. Maybe the water cavalry went to the wrong address? Estimates for Brazilian soybean production are rising again in some quarters, Conab now peg the crop at 72.2 MMT. That's 2.2 MMT higher than the USDA's March number. The latter will of course be issuing revised production estimates on Friday. Some also see Paraguay chipping in with a crop of 8-8.4 MMT this year, also higher than the USDA said last month. The USDA have just announced the sale of 101,600 MT of new crop corn sold to unknown. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to 2c higher, beans up 8-10c, wheat up 1-3c. 2008 |
## 1913 08/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher with beans up 16-17c, corn up 6-8c and wheat 2-4c firmer. However the Globex session closed before the USDA came out with their April WASDE and US ending stocks estimates. Whilst the market was expecting a further erosion of US 2010/11 corn ending stocks, the USDA once again chucked in a curve ball leaving stocks unchanged from last month at 675 million bushels. Meanwhile although world ending stocks were reduced slightly from last month they still came in 1.4 MMT higher than trade expectations as a result of Brazil's corn crop coming in 2 MMT higher than previously at 52 MMT. The soybean numbers were a bearish too, although not as much as they were for corn, with US ending stocks there also left unchanged and Brazilian output rising 2 MMT to 72 MMT. That placed world ending stocks 2 MMT up on trade expectations at 60.9 MMT. The wheat numbers were perhaps modestly friendly being to only one of the three to see US ending stocks decline, and that contrary to expectations of a small increase. World ending stocks were up almost 1 MMT however to 182.8 MT. A weak dollar and firmer crude oil may underpin early losses, and it would be of no surprise at all to see bargain-hunting (if you can call it that at these levels) kicking-in depending on how low prices fall this afternon. Where the market ends tonight is perhaps far more important than where it opens, and will tell us more about current trade sentiment. Early opening calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 10-15c, wheat do2wn 8-10c, beans down 15-20c. 2008 |
## 1921 28/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed mostly firmer with beans up 6-8c, and with corn & wheat around 2-4c higher. Fresh news is limited. Libyan rebels have made inroads into Gaddafi held territory over the weekend, aided by NATO, and are now advancing on his hometown of Sirte. Rebels have also announced that they've done a deal wit Qatar to market crude oil from fields under their control in the east. Crude oil is more than a dollar lower on the back of these developments. A firmer US dollar looks like hindering upside potential today. The market is waiting for direction from Thursday's planting intentions report. Traders are also watching out for any potential further announcements of US corn sales this afternoon, which are being widely touted. Some limited moisture relief is on the cards for Eastern Kansas later in the week, but the trade is conscious of significant abandonment potential in the state. Ditto Oklahoma and Texas. At least some net drying is on the cards for drowned out spring wheat states to the north. Safras & Mercado came out with a Brazilian soybean production estimate of 71.5 MMT on Friday, they said that yield losses in Mato Grosso would at least be partially compensated for by bumper crops further south. That corroborates independent reports from my man in Brazil. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session, ahead of any possible announcements from the USDA on corn sales: corn up 1-2c, soybeans up 6-8c and wheat 2-3c higher. 2008 |
## 1928 29/03/11 -- The overnight grains were mixed, but mostly a little higher in quiet trade whilst the market treads water waiting for Thursday's USDA reports. Beans finished the Globex session mostly around 3-5c higher, with wheat up 3-4c and corn down 1/2c to up 3c. Right now all we have to go on is trade guesses for Thursday. For corn most of those centre around 91-92 million acres, with the average guess at just under the 92 million mark - the second largest planted area since WWII. Last season was 88.2 million, but just about every newswire you read reports of an increase of this kind of magnitude being essential to replenish dwindling US stocks. Essential, so long as the blenders tax credit remains in place past the end of the year that is. Some of those acres may get stolen from soybeans, of which US farmers planted 77.4 million acres last year, according to some. Others think that soybean planted area will also increase this year. That gives us a fairly wide range of trade estimates ranging from 75.3 million to 78.5 million acres, with the average guess just under 77 million. All wheat acres are less contentious, as most of the crop is already in the ground, pegged at 57.3 million. Thursday also brings the quarterly stocks report, although trade guesstimates on these are in a much tighter range, with corn estimated at 6.7 billion bu, beans at 1.3 billion and wheat at 1.4 billion. Aside from that we have crude oil weaker as Libyan rebels seem to be gaining the upper hand, not without considerable outside assistance it has to be said. The dollar is also a bit firmer, which is slightly negative for grains. We also of course have the unconfirmed China bought stacks more US corn over the weekend stories to contend with. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session don't show a lot of change: beans up 3-5c, corn flat to up 2c and wheat 3-4c higher. 2008 |
## 1955 14/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower on continued fallout from the devastation in Japan where there's been a second reactor explosion this morning. Beans ended around 10-15c lower, with corn down 5-7c and wheat in the region of 6-8c easier. Crude is offering no support at around USD2 lower. Japan is America's largest corn customer, it's second biggest wheat buyer and is third in it's soybean rankings. Some media reports are suggesting that recent events are bullish in the long run. That they may be, but the market is more concerned with the shorter-term right now. Whilst many newswires are carrying stories that grain shipments to Japan will hardly be affected, and in some cases that they may actually increase to maintain food security, they seem to be ignoring the damage to the local infrastructure and the problems created by power rationing. The financial implications for the world's third largest economy will be long-term, it could also be argued. On the global weather front a big warm-up is on the way for the Canadian Prairies, which will be welcomed with spring plantings now only six weeks away. The Midwest Corn Belt is trending warmer too, which is good, although the 6-10 day forecast also includes wetter than normal conditions which will be less welcomed, say Martell Crop Projections. Signs that La Nina is dying out will also bring welcomed warmer weather for northern and eastern Europe, Russia and the Chinese Manchurian Plain, they say. The faster that La Nina dies out the better the chances for timely spring planting in northern grain growing areas, they add. US HRW wheat is still suffering from drought and rainfall this week in the Southern Great Plains would be generally under 0.30 inch and scattered, they warn. Elsewhere, Argentina received widespread beneficial rains over the weekend and Brazil's harvest weather outlook finally seems to be improving. Jordan are tendering for 100,000 MT of wheat and a similar volume of feed barley. EU grains are all sharply lower. A lower close tonight for corn would be its seventh in a row, and for wheat it would be a sixth. That's what's being forecast as money continues to flow out of riskier assets like the grains. There will certainly be some thinking that there is a buying opportunity here, but whilst funds continue to take cash off the table the path of least resistance remains lower not higher. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans down 10-15c, corn 5-7c lower and wheat down 6-8c. 2008 |
## 1971 16/03/11 -- The overnight grains were higher, rebounding from the steep losses of the past couple of days. Beans finished around 26-27c higher, with wheat up 21-23c and corn up 7-10c. Crude oil is offering support, up USD1.50-2.00 and metals and other outside influences are also firmer. All eyes remain on Japan and developments at the Fukushima nuclear facility, you wouldn't want to rule out this market rapidly changing direction one way or the other depending on events there. This area is responsible for around 17-20% of Japan's feed manufacture, according to media reports. These stories also suggest that capacity can be increased elsewhere to make up for any shortfall in feed availability. Exactly how production can be ramped up in the south faced with power shortages is however unclear. There are lots of other uncertainties too, lsuch as damage to the local infrastructure like ports and transport networks not to mention the possible implications on livestock numbers not just from the tsunami itself but also the evacuation of farmers leaving their animals behind, and possible radiation contamination. Has fund liquidation ceased for now? Right now it seems like the answer is yes, but that doesn't exclude the possibility of another wave of selling at the drop of a hat depending on international events. Japan has deflected much of the markets' interest away from the Middle East and North Africa it seems, as the violence spreads to Bahrain. Other market fundamentals are for now very much playing second fiddle. Brazil's soybean crop may not break 70 MMT after all as rains continue to hamper the harvest, and the US winter wheat crop is in a pretty sorry state too. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 20-25c, wheat up 20-25c, corn up 8-10c. 2008 |
## 1976 17/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed higher in a rebound from recent steep losses with beans and wheat up around 20c and corn around 14-17c firmer. NYMEX crude is back up above USD100/barrel, showing a USD2.40/barrel advance on the day. Weekly export sales from the USDA were poor for beans at a combined 214,500 MT as demand switches to South America. China bought just the one cargo of new crop this week. Corn sales were strong again though at over 1.3 MMT and wheat sales also topped 1 MMT. Allendale peg US corn acres at 91.3 million this year, 0.7 million lower that the USDA said last month. Bean plantings are also seen lower than the USDA said at 77.2 million, whilst the wheat area is higher at 57.4 million. Massive fund liquidation, particularly in old crop corn, seems to be over for now although events in Japan and the Middle East could change that at any moment. Confusion still reigns over the Japanese situation with conflicting media reports saying that disruption to grain shipments are anything from minimal to acute! A report on Dow Jones Newswires today says that the affected area and extent of damage at ports are turning out to be much larger than provisional estimates and that 7.8 MMT of compound feed, which is almost a third of national output, is produced in the areas around four ports that have been badly affected by the catastrophe. China sold 1.3 MMT of wheat at this week's government auction, demand certainly seems to be picking up there in this past few weeks. Some news reports are talking of Asian buyers snapping up corn and wheat, encouraged by the recent dip in prices, although none of these orders look to be anything particularly out of the ordinary. The USDA has confirmed 110,000 MT of corn sold to unknown today for the 2010/11 crop year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 20-25c, wheat up 18-20c, corn up 13-15c. 2008 |
## 1992 22/03/11 -- The overnight grains were lower with beans ending around 16-20c easier, with corn down 8-10c and wheat 13-15c lower. Crude oil is a bit easier despite early reports of a US warplane being shot down over Libya. It seems that mechanical error was the real culprit. Those Libyans couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo. The market seems somewhat deflated that it got itself all worked up again that China had swooped in for massive volumes of US corn on last week's dip, only to find little in the way of confirmation from the USDA. Two 116,000 MT sales to unknown is all we have to go on between last Thursday and now. Indeed China’s state grain buyer Sinograin says it hasn't bought anything at all. In addition to that the government there only sold 10% of the corn on offer at this week's auction. China will import 3.9 MMT of soybeans in March and 3.4 MMT in April, according to the Ag Ministry. That's a step up from last month, but below the customary 5 MMT+ that we've been getting used to, and much of that will be South American origin. Celeres report Brazil's soybean harvest at 44% complete, up from 30% last week and slightly ahead of the five year average although below last year's pace. Kansas wheat improved in the week ending March 21 but conditions were still not favourable with 37% poor-very poor, 36% fair and 27% good-excellent. Five percent of wheat was jointing, a rapid growth period in wheat that demands generous moisture. The updated forecast calls for 0.25 - 0.50 inch of rainfall later in the week with much cooler temperatures. Both coolness and wetness would help wheat development, say Martell Crop Projections. The USDA do today report 160,000 MT of HRW wheat sold to Nigeria, but there's no crumbs for the corn bulls. Goldman Sachs is forecasting 2011 US corn plantings at 92.1 million acres, slightly more than the USDA's Feb Outlook Forum, they are out with more official estimates at the end of the month. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 15-20c, wheat down 12-15c, corn down 8-10c. 2008 |
## 1997 23/03/11 -- The overnight grains closed mostly a little higher with beans up 1-2c, corn 1-3c firmer and wheat flat to up 2c. Crude is around half a dollar firmer and the USD is also a bit steadier. Fresh news is severely lacking. The USDA report 105,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown for 2011/12. There's been no confirmation of any corn sales to China though. Again. Cofco have joined Sinograin in saying that they haven't bought any US corn, and nor do they intend to, at these levels. It looks like we might be treading water ahead of the USDA acreage report at the end of the month. Brazil's soybean crop may be shrinking a little, although it will still probably be a record ahead of last season's 68.5 MMT. A hard freeze and snow is in the forecast for US winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma and NW Texas early next week, according to QT Weather. The freeze could be bad for Oklahoma wheat which is around 50% jointed, but the moisture could benefit Kansas wheat which is less advanced, they add. The FAO peg the world wheat crop this year at 676 MMT, a 4.4% or 28.5 MMT increase on the USDA's estimate for 2010/11. That figure also exceeds this season's consumption figure from the USDA by 14 MMT. China sold just over half the 679 TMT of wheat on offer at today's weekly auction. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 1-2c firmer, beans up 2-3c, wheat flat to up 2c. 2008 |
## 2011 24/03/11 -- I'll probably think of a Brazilian connection as I type. The overnight grains closed narrowly mixed. What's going on? We've become used to massive swings and now it's just like the old days again. Beans finished mostly 2-3c higher, with corn up a cent or three and wheat 2c up to 2c down. The USDA weekly export sales report was in line with expectations for beans, corn and wheat, but frustratingly for the bulls there were no corn sales to China. Bean sales to China were also the lowest weekly total that I can recall for some considerable time at 20,800 MT. Demand has clearly already switched to South America. China did show up though as a surprise buyer of two cargoes of US wheat. On the weather front much colder temperatures are predicted in the US grain belt the next several days, at least 15 F below normal for this time of year. Sunday should be very cold in the heartland - 20 degrees F below normal in Missouri and Kansas. Dreary damp conditions will dominate the Upper Midwest while rain and snow develops along an unstable front in the more southern growing areas, say Martell Crop Projections. Elsewhere we have more unwanted rain in Mato Grosso (there you go, I told you I'd justify another Brazilian bum picture) and not enough in Parana. The South Brazil forecast is turning hopeful for heavy rain, which would be beneficial. As you can see news is limited as we await fresh impetus from next week's USDA reports. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-3c, beans up 2-4c, wheat flat to 2c higher. 2008 |
## 2106 05/07/12 -- Welcome back to the early call on Chicago. I, for one, kind of miss it. Trust the CME Group to go and spoil it with their 21 hours a day trading money-making machine. Still, we're stuck with it I suppose. Well, today always threatened to be explosive, and with an hour and a half to go to kick-off time it's looking unlikely to disappoint. The European markets are doing their best to point the Septics in the right direction, with London and Paris wheat both sharply higher despite crop conditions here looking generally favourable. A quick scan across the news wires sees phrases like dust bowl and decimated being used this morning, so the only thing surprising about the early call of 20-30 cents up on soybeans, 10-15 cents up on wheat and 10-20 cents up on corn is that they aren't even higher. They may well be soon after the opening. When the bulls are this ravenous there's only one thing you can do, stand back and let them gorge themselves. They will inevitably overeat, they always do, so just make sure that you also stand well back when the projectile vomiting begins. The market is almost certainly going higher short-term, but what about medium-term and beyond? Almost universally unopposed rhetoric that it's going up and up is where we are going to stay always makes me nervous. Especially when that rhetoric is trotted out in the very month when the market frequently tops at the height of mass weather-related hysteria. For one, it's never gone up and stayed there before, not even in 1988, which is the year that we have supposedly been carried back in time to. For two, the cure for high prices is high prices, they say. The higher we go the more demand will be choked-off. You can ask a dairy farmer or ethanol producer about that if you're in doubt. A fillip of high prices is also of course increased production. Every farmer in South America is currently thinking, blimey, put me down for a slice of this cake. So, pardon me if I don't buy into the longevity of this particular rally, no matter how good and utterly convincing the arguments that the only way is up are. What will cause a sudden reversal, and when it will happen, sadly I don't know. The FAO have today cut their forecast on US corn production this year to 350 MMT. Still a record. And who is going to want it all is it's USD8.00/bushel, or even more as some are now suggesting? CONAB have raised their Brazilian corn crop estimate for 2011/12 to 69.48 MMT, thanks to a bumper second crop and increased their export estimate to 12 MMT, which is 2 MMT more than the USDA currently project. They've also increased their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 69.48 MMT, some 2.5 MMT more than the USDA say. 2008 |
## 2255 17/05/12 -- The overnight gains were mixed with wheat up 2-3 cents, beans 11 cents higher nearby to 5-7 cents firmer further forward and corn 1-4 cents lower. Crude is a bit firmer for once, but so too is the US dollar. The USDA's weekly export sales report came in at a combined 865,100 MT for corn, towards the low end of expectations of 800 TMT-1.4 MMT; Soybeans were well below trade ideas at 673,400 MT vs the 1.1-1.6 MMT expected; Wheat was OK at 711,400 MT vs 400-850 TMT expected. One of two of last night's newswires included the word Sukhovy - the infamous hot wind that helped slash Russian grain production two years ago. Nobody seems to be saying that this weather phenomena has struck yet, but that there is potential for it to do so. With funds holding a near record short in Chicago wheat and memories of wheat prices doubling in the second half of 2010 it's not surprising therefore that wheat posted 30 cent gains last night. Stategie Grains meanwhile have chipped in with a 4.2 MMT cut to EU-27 soft wheat production, meaning that they've lopped 8.5 MMT off their forecasts in the past two months. Jordan has bought 50,000 MT of wheat of unspecified origin in a tender. Japan has bought 500,000 MT of of South American corn for July-Sept shipment, and has more to buy. The Philippines are buying Australian feed wheat. Helping support the already tight old crop soybean situation this afternoon will be the USDA announcing the sale of 480,000 MT to China. They've also reported the sale of 100,000 MT of new crop HRW wheat to Iraq which was already publicised earlier in the week. The former is a pretty large sale for US beans at this time of year, suggesting that there isn't much on offer out of South America already, or at least that the pipeline is full. Macquarie Group meanwhile say that they believe that soybean prices will peak in the June-August period when global supplies will be tightest - July is the seasonal favourite peak month for CBOT beans. US weather is seen turning warmer/drier, which shouldn't initially be a problem but could quickly get turned into one. As ever, keep an eye on European developments. Yields on Spanish bonds were sharply higher today. They had to pay 4.373% on bonds maturing in Jan 2015 versus 2.89% last month. Apr 2016 bonds were 5.106% versus 3.374% in March. Early calls for this afternoon's session: corn flat to 2 cents lower, wheat up 2-3 cents, beans up 6-12 cents. 2008 |
## 2257 18/05/12 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans mostly 4-6 cents lower, corn 3-4 cents higher and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Crude oil and the dollar are both slightly weaker. For the week so far we have beans up 28 1/4 cents, corn up 21 cents and wheat up 70 1/2 cents including the overnight market. Wheat has led the way this week on talk of yield loss potential in Russia and Europe and a hot and dry finish to the growing season in the southern Plains. Combine that with the hefty fund short position that we began the week with and it's easy to see why the market got a little spooked. There's an interesting graphic showing where Russian wheat is grown, combined with thirty day rainfall and temperature maps, courtesy of my chums at Martell Crop Projections. My information is that there is still time for wheat in the region if it gets rain in the next couple of weeks. It would only take between .50 and 2 inches of rain to wipe out the deficit. The problem is that the exceptional heat has increased evaporation making moisture stress worse. The evaporation rate is twice as high at 90 F than at 70 F, says Gail Martell. The Kansas wheat harvest will begin next week I hear, it will be interesting to see what early yield results are. The outside markets have fared less well this week, weighed down by European debt woes. NYMEX crude is down by almost USD4/barrel on the week so far. More and more analysts are using the word when as opposed to if with regards to a Greek Eurozone exit. Shares in De La Rue Group, the world's largest commercial printer of banknotes, are up more than 11% in the past month in anticipation of them getting a large order to print drachma's, according to a report on Reuters today. Meanwhile a report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that JPMorgan Chase's recently reported USD2-3 billion losses could end up being as much as USD5 billion. Early calls: corn up 3-5 cents, wheat up 4-6 cents, soybeans down 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2269 08/05/12 -- The overnight grains are mostly higher with beans up 1-3 cents, corn up as much as 8 3/4 cents nearby and 2-3 cents higher on new crop and wheat up 5-7 cents. Crude oil is almost a dollar lower, extending it's recent losing streak. Having reported soybean sales to unknown/China every day last week, and again yesterday, the USDA are back again today announcing the sale of 225,000 MT of beans to China split 60,000 MT old crop and 165,000 MT new crop. They are also reporting the sale of 40,000 MT of new crop soyoil to unknown. How much longer the market can absorb these daily sales remains to be seen. It will also be interesting to see what these orders do to the USDA's old crop balance sheet projections on Thursday. Despite seeming to have the most upside potential, it doesn't feel like soybeans are going to put in any significant gains ahead of this report though, given the heavy fund length that exists already. There's some suggestion that China may have also bought old and new crop corn over the weekend, but there is no official confirmation of this yet. US corn, soybean and spring wheat plantings are well advanced. So too is winter wheat maturity. That will tempt many to harvest early and double crop with corn, or more particularly soybeans. Informa last week suggested that soybean double cropped acreage will climb by 26% on last year. Whilst the EU rapeseed crop is forecast to drop sharply to around 17.5 MMT by Rabobank, Canadian and Australian production is seen rising by 14-15%, possibly more in the case of the latter. With a large US winter wheat harvest almost upon us, upside potential for that looks limited. Old crop corn is undeniably tight, but a probable record crop lies ahead to put new crop under pressure somewhere down the line unless we get a weather scare. Soybeans offer most upside potential given the large reductions in South American production and constant Chinese interest. Looking further ahead into 2013 Informa last week forecast Brazilian soybean production at a monster 80.5 MMT, with Argentina chipping in with a record 60 MMT of their own as South American producers attempt to cash in on these big prices. In Brazil some of that will be down to new land coming into production, in Argentina it may be partially due to a switch away from wheat. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 6-8 cents higher old crop and 2-4 cents firmer new crop; soybeans up 1-3 cents and wheat up 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 2273 09/05/12 -- The overnight gains see beans more than 17 cents down nearby with new crop Nov 12 falling 12 1/2 cents. Corn is unchanged to 3 1/2 cents lower and wheat is down around 3-6 cents. Crude is extending it's losing run to day six, down more than a dollar to USD95.85/barrel, which is over ten dollars below where it closed on the first of the month. Greece is the word, a Euro exit, a return to the drachma and a messy default has perhaps never looked more likely than it does now. That's why we are seeing fund money pulling out of soybeans despite underlying bullish fundamentals. Beans are where the bulk of their grains length lies, so that is the one that is most under pressure with the overnight market seeing front month May 12 fall to USD14.20/bu, more than 80 cents below where it was at the end of April. Yet South American production estimates are falling on a weekly basis, with Oil World yesterday cutting their Argentine soybean forecast by 1.5 MMT and warning that a downgrade for Brazil was also likely. In addition China/unknown are buying US soybeans on a daily basis. There is now also the risk of an Argentine dock workers strike kicking off as early as tomorrow. Going into new crop things look bearish for corn and wheat in particular. Trade estimates for tomorrow's US 2011/12 stocks report are: Corn 758 million bushels vs the April USDA estimate of 801 million; Soybeans 221 million vs the USDA's 250 million last month; Wheat 781 million vs the USDA's 793 million in April. For 2012/13 US corn stocks are seen rising to 1.704 million bushels, with soybeans falling to 170 million and wheat climbing to 805 million. In South America the trade is looking for an Argentine corn crop of 20.7 MMT (vs 21.5 MMT last month) and a Brazilian corn crop of 62.7 MMT (from 62.0 MMT). Argentine soybean production is thought likely to fall to 42.0 MMT from 45 MMT and Brazilian soybean output seen at 65.5 MMt from 66.0 MMT Further fund selling of soybeans ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports looks likely this afternoon, with early calls: beans 14-18 cents weaker, corn down 3-4 cents and wheat 4-6 cents easier. 2008 |
## 2278 10/05/12 -- The overnight grains were mostly higher with beans leading the way up 14-18 cents. Corn was up almost 10 cents nearby but generally a cent or so easier further forward, wheat was 3-4 cents higher. The big news of course was the raft of USDA numbers. Catching the eye immediately was a surprise 50 million increase in old crop US corn ending stocks, from 801 million bushels to 851 million. The most optimistic trade estimate was for these to be left unchanged from last month, nobody was forecasting an increase. US wheat and soybean stocks were cut by a bit more than anticipated, but nothing startling. World corn ending stocks for the current marketing year also got a boost, being raised from 122.7 MMT to 127.6 MMT. The trade was expecting a decline. Also catching the eye was a much larger than expected cut to world wheat ending stocks in 2011/12, from 206.3 MMT to 197.0 MMT. South American soybean production estimates fell into line with trade guesses, with Brazil's crop cut by 1 MMT to 65 MMT and Argentina's reduced by 2.5 MMT to 42.5 MMT. Further cuts to the latter are surely likely next month. Brazil's corn production estimate was raised 5 MMT to 67 MMT, another bearish surprise for corn, although other analysts have also recently been upping their forecasts for corn output here. Argentina's corn crop was left unchanged at 21.5 MMT, contrary to expectations for a 0.8 MMT reduction. Kansas was forecast to produce a 387 million bushel winter wheat crop this year, 40% up on last year. The US all wheat crop was estimated at 2.245 billion bushels, more than expected and 12.3% up on last year. As well as all that the USDA also gave us the usual weekly export sales numbers which, sticking with the above theme, were bearish corn and bullish soybeans. Corn sales were 224,200 MT old crop and 249,200 MT new crop, well under the combined 1.1-1.3 MMT that the trade was expecting. In contrast soybean weekly sales were 466,500 MT for old crop and a hefty 1,360,500 MT for new crop giving a combined total of 1,827,000 MT versus expectations of 1.2-1.4 MMT. It should be noted that China accounted for more than 1 MMT of the combined total. Wheat sales were in line with trade ideas of 450-750 TMT at a combined 550,500 MT. The numbers are bullish for soybeans, negative for corn and neutral to slightly friendly for wheat, although the latter may get dragged down by corn. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: old crop soybeans up 10-20 cents, new crop up 20-30 cents; corn flat old crop and 10-15 cents lower on new crop; wheat flat to 5 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2297 30/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw a bit of consolidation from Friday's gains with soybeans 210 cents lower on old crop and 3-5 cents easier on old crop. Wheat ended 4-9 cents weaker and corn was mixed. Crude oil is also lower. As will as consolidation/profit-taking following Friday's advances, we may also be in for a bit of month-end book squaring too, although fundamentally nothing has changed. Ag Rural have lowered their Brazilian soybean production estimate a little to 66.24 MMT. Eastern European weather is seen turning cooler and wetter in the second half of the week, which may ease heat and dryness concerns there. There are no such problems in Western Europe after another cool and very wet weekend for many. US corn plantings are expected to have advanced to 40-45% done as of Sunday night, which the USDA will report upon after the close. A mentioned earlier, last week was all about corn, it remains to be seen if the USDA are done with announcing any further sales to China or unknown. They have however this afternoon announced 220,000 MT of new crop soybean sales to China. Fifteen dollar soybeans clearly aren't putting them off too much with their domestic levels around USD4/bu more expensive. Saudi Arabia bought a mixture of US, EU, Australian, Canadian and Argy wheat over the weekend in a 450,000 MT purchase. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-2 cents, wheat down 7-9 cents, soybeans down 6-8 cents, 2008 |
## 2299 01/05/12 -- The overnight gains saw a bit of consolidation with beans ending around 10-12 down on old crop and 3-4 down on new crop. Corn was 4-6 cents lower and wheat 7-11 cents weaker. Crude is barely changed. Fresh news is scarce with half of Europe and Asia away on holiday. You can't fault China though, they're back again with the USDA reporting 110,000 MT of soybeans sold to them for 2012/13 delivery. The USDA have also confirmed that 110,000 MT of the weekend Saudi business was US origin HRW wheat. Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argy soybean production estimate from 41.5 MMT to 40.0 MMT and taken 1 MMT off his Brazilian forecast which now stands at 65.0 MMT. There's a Kansas wheat tour kicking off today which concludes Thursday. Yields are expected to be around 10 bushels/acre up on last year's drought stricken 35 bpa. Last night's rapid progress in corn planting should weigh on new crop today. So too should winter wheat maturity at 54% headed versus 24% on average. In what could be a low volume session early calls are for wheat and soybeans to open 8-10 cents down, with corn 5-7 cents weaker. 2008 |
## 2309 03/05/12 -- The overnight gains saw a bit of consolidation for wheat which closed with modest 3-5 cent gains, corn and beans were mixed. Crude is slightly easier and the dollar a tad stronger. The USDA's weekly export sales report came in at 1,331,900 MT on old crop corn and 2,140,300 MT for new crop, in line with expectations for a combined 3-4 MMT. Much of this was previously reported business under the daily reporting system with China taking 214,000 MT of the old crop and 172,500 MT of the new crop. We also have a large 509,500 MT of the old crop going to unknown along with 1,920,000 MT of the new crop to the same. For soybeans we had sales of 598,000 MT of old crop and 1,134,000 MT of new crop beating expectations for combined sales of 0.9-1.4 MMT. China accounted for 117,300 MT of the old crop and 675,000 MT of the new crop. Unknown took 147,500 MT and 394,000 MT respectively. Wheat sales were 256,700 MT old crop and 454,800 MT new crop against expectations for combined sales of 600-850 TMT. The corn sales, whilst huge, were already in the market. It will be interesting to see the market reaction to this today, as the trade did a pretty good job of selling the fact last week. Soybean sales beat expectations, with another significant slug of old crop included to further tighten the balance sheet. Bang on cue, the USDA have today reported 232,000 MT of new crop soybean sales to China today under the daily reporting system. If I was going to be long one of the big three then it would still be soybeans for me. China are going to buy what, 58 MMT of them this year? That makes their corn import requirements look pretty insignificant doesn't it? Rival soybean harvests are a very long way off, but competing wheat harvesting is not very far away at all with corn somewhere in between. We will also be seeing potentially record US corn production in 2012 along with significant increased plantings in Ukraine and other pasrt of Eastern Europe. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation say that world wheat production in the coming season will come in at 675 MMT, 3.6% down on last year. World soybean production for 2011/2 will fall 9.5% to 240 MMT, one of the steepest year on year declines on record, they add. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, soybeans down 2-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2322 23/04/12 -- The overnight gains saw soybeans around 10-12 higher, with corn up 2-3 cents and wheat 4-6 cents firmer. Crude is a bit steadier and the dollar a little weaker, both of which should help the grains. Stats Canada are out today with their estimates on plantings there, placing the all wheat area at 24.32 million acres, almost a million above the 23.4 million that the trade was expecting and 13.3% up on last year. The rapeseed area is seen at 20.37 million acres, slightly lower than the anticipated 20.6 million, but still a record and 8% up on last year. The announcement just out from the USDA of the sale of 480,000 MT of old crop corn to unknown will get a few excited this afternoon no doubt. It looks like the Chinese rumours were true, and if they were then there could be more announcements to come as 1 MMT was the widely touted volume, with some suggesting significantly more than that. China is sitting on 46% of the world's corn stocks, according to the USDA. Yet domestic prices there are amongst the highest in the world, approaching USD10/bushel on the Dalian Exchange, with soybeans around USD19/bushel and soymeal USD550/tonne. We have talk of a freeze in both the US and Argentina potentially harming newly planted or about to be harvested corn & soybeans. The USDA last night pegged spring corn planting at 28% complete, which although that is well ahead of normal is actually a fair bit lower than the trade was expecting. Winter wheat maturity is well advanced, and there must be plenty of growers hoping that an early harvest will mean an opportunity to plant double crop beans or corn. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 4-5 cents, soybeans up 8-10 cents, corn up 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2329 25/04/12 -- The overnight grains see soybeans 28 cents higher on old crop and 15-16 cents higher on old crop. Corn and wheat are up around 4-6 cents. Crude is barely changed as too is the US dollar. Soybeans lead the way once again, with talk now surfacing that the Argy crop will struggle to hit the 40 MMT mark (the USDA currently say 45 MMT). Argentina's crop keeps shrinking, and with that the increased risk of disruptions in supply from a seller already tarnished with a history of unreliability. Brazil appears to have hung up the we are currently over capacity, please try again later sign. So if you want beans now from a reliable supplier there's really only one shop open. There is talk that China bought up to half a million tonnes of US soybeans yesterday, there's no confirmation of that yet from the USDA. If true that would seem to confirm that they are having trouble buying South American soybean for the time slots they want. Beans ARE heavily overbought, but not without significant support from underlying bullish fundamentals. The market can ill afford a serious US weather scare this summer, and let's face it we normally get at least one or two. The USDA have today reported the sale of 420,000 MT of new crop corn to unknown along with 172,500 MT of new crop confirmed as China plus an additional 90,000 MT of old crop corn to China. Yesterday's confirmed sales met with a buy the rumour sell the fact insipid response, it will be interesting to see if the same is true today. The early call on this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat 4-6 cents higher, soybeans up 25-30 cents. 2008 |
## 2339 16/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans 10 cents or so lower, corn down 8-10 cents and wheat 6-7 cents weaker in a general risk-off vibe. Greek woes now seem but a distant memory as Spain gets reluctantly dragged into the limelight. Worries over Chinese growth are also giving the market a few jitters. Brazil's Safras say that the soybean harvest there is 85% complete, compared to 87% a year ago and 78% normally. Weekend rain activity provided beneficial moisture to much of the US Plains and Midwest. That may slow plantings a bit, but that isn't a problem at this stage and will certainly do more good than harm. Wetter weather for Europe over the weekend and throughout the coming week should also be of benefit. The NOPA March soybean crush was 140.5 million bushels, up more than 4 million from Feb but below trade estimates. Soy meal open interest is at the highest since December 17th, 2007. Spec soybean longs are running at record levels and length in corn is also significant. For wheat however they hold a hefty short. The USDA will report after the close on US planting progress and crop conditions. Last week we had spring wheat at 21% complete, corn sowings at 7% planted and winter wheat good/excellent jumping from 58% to 61%, well ahead of the 36% this time a year ago. Some reports suggest that corn plantings may have jumped to as much as 20% complete now that insurance qualification dates have been met. I don't see the corn number being quite that high personally. Spring wheat sowings may hit 50% done, some suggest. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10 cents, corn & wheat 6-8 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2340 27/04/12 -- The overnight gains saw soybeans around 10-12 cents higher, with corn up 2-6 cents and wheat 4-5 cents firmer. Crude is a bit weaker and so too the dollar - the latter should help the grains this afternoon. The USDA have announced the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop corn to China along with a monster 1.44 MMT of new crop to unknown. The trade has made a pretty good job of shrugging off these corn sales to unknown/China this week, let's see what it makes of that today. In addition, the USDA have reported sales of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China plus 116,000 MT to unknown. The IGC say that China's corn imports will jump 50% in 2012/13 to 6 MMT from 4 MMT this season. It already looks like that may be conservative. Meanwhile Argy corn and soybean production estimates keep shrinking. Yesterday's weekly export sales were strong for beans, corn and wheat. They were also heavily weighted in favour of old crop for beans and corn, no wonder the differential between the nearby and the deferred months widened yesterday, a trend that looks set to continue today judging by the overnight action. For the week as a whole, including the overnight market, we have May beans up 46 3/4 cents, with new crop Nov rising a more modest 9 1/2 cents. May corn is up 27 1/2 and Dec up just a 1/4 cent. May wheat is up 15 cents. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat up 4-6 cents and soybeans 10-12 cents higher. 2008 |
## 2352 17/04/12 -- The overnight grains rebounded higher on soybeans which were up 6-8 cents, wheat 2-3 cents higher and corn mixed a cents or so either way. WTI crude is up a dollar, Brent is around unchanged. The market is bracing itself for a corn planting progress number from the USDA around a record 20% complete. Beneficial moisture has fallen across much of the Midwest with more on the way too to help get the crop off to a good and early start, maximising yield potential. So far so good, although there's a very long way to go yet. Soybean plantings are expected to be around 5% complete. Spring wheat sowings could be as much as 50% done. Winter wheat good/excellent was 61% last week, a huge improvement on year ago levels. The USDA have reported the sale of 225,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations today, split 110,000 MT old crop and 115,000 MT new crop. Michael Cordonnier has reduced his Argentine soybean production estimate to 43.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the USDA's latest number, as the crop there keeps getting smaller. Oil World have lowered their Argy forecast to 44 MMT and cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 65 MMT, 1 MMT below the USDA's figure. Russia exported a record 18.5 MMT of wheat between July 1, 2011, and April 15, 2012, and will finish the season exporting a total of 20.5 MMT, according to the Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. Total grain exports for the 2011/12 marketing year will be a record 25 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry, or even higher at 25.7 MMT according to RusAgroTrans. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 1-3 cents, corn mixed. 2008 |
## 2355 18/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans around 14 cents weaker, and corn & wheat mixed a cent or so either side. Crude is down 40-50 cents. Given that Chicago soybean prices have increased by around 30% from the mid-December lows, yet corn is only up 6% and wheat up 7% since then, I guess that if there's any consolidation due then it's more likely to be in soybeans. That is also where the hefty spec longs are, followed by corn. Any downside for beans may generate some liquidation amongst some of the weaker just along for the ride longs. Fundamentally though the bullish outlook for beans is unchanged. Insatiable China has bought 120,000 MT of new crop US soybeans overnight, unperturbed by price. Bangladesh has bought 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat from an Indian trading house, so I guess that there's a good chance they will get Indian wheat. Concerns seem to be growing that Europe's wheat and rapeseed crops may have suffered more winter losses than originally thought. Following on from Oil World's downgrade to the EU-27 rapeseed crop yesterday, German farm group DRV today pegged rapeseed production there at 4.32 MMT this year, around half a million lower than Coceral's March estimate although up 420,000 MT on last season's drought-ravaged crop. Soft wheat production in Germany will come in at 20.9 MMT they say, which is 1.5 MMT below the number Coceral gave last month. The USDA said last night that corn planting was only 17% complete, which is actually lower than most of the estimates that were being bandied about. Winter wheat crop conditions good/excellent improved three points for a second week in succession and now stand at 64% versus 36% a year ago. Maturity is well advanced too with 29% of the crop headed compared to 8% normally. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 10-15 cents lower, wheat flat to 2 cents higher, corn mixed 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher. 2008 |
## 2360 19/04/12 -- The overnight gains rebounded from last night's losses to pretty much take us back to where we were on Tuesday. Beans finished 14-16 cents higher, with wheat up 8-9 cents and corn 10-13 cents firmer. The USDA's weekly export sales report gave us 365,900 MT for old crop wheat and 76,300 MT for new crop, a bit below expectations for sales of 450-650 TMT. Corn sales were poor at 300,400 MT old crop and net sales reductions of 2,400 MT for new crop versus trade ideas for sales of 600-950 TMT. Soybean sales were strong at 374,300 MT old crop and 845,000 MT new crop. China took 127,200 MT old crop and 615,000 MT new crop. Expectations were for sales of a combined 750 TMT - 1.1 MMT. In amongst the corn details was a small 15,000 MT sale to China, not the widely rumoured kind of volume that has supposedly been done. Once again we see soybeans setting themselves up to be the leader. To reinforce that view the USDA have also reported the further sale of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 10-12 cents, wheat up 8-10 cents, soybeans up 14-16 cents. 2008 |
## 2363 20/04/12 -- The overnight grains see soybeans 5-7 cents firmer, corn up 4 cents on old crop and flat to a cent higher new crop, wheat is around a cent easier. Crude is a dollar or so higher. Including overnight action soybeans are around 15 cents weaker on the week so far, with corn down 4 cents and wheat unchanged. Strong rumours of China's Sinograin buying US corn on the recent dip remain, but there are no confirmations as yet. They have however been confirmed as being in for US soybeans for the past three days. As the Brazilian harvest winds down, we switch our attention to Argentina where the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange say that the soybean harvest is 37% complete, with 39% of the corn cut. They are sticking with a soybean crop of 44 MMT and a corn crop of 20.8 MMT, although they acknowledge that early harvest results are not meeting expectations. The Rosario Grain Exchange peg soybean output at 43.1 MMT and corn production at 19.7 MMT. The Argy Agriculture Ministry have cut their soybean production estimate there from 44 MMT to 42.9 MMT, and lowered corn output to 20.3 MMT from 21.2 MMT. As well as drought earlier in the season, heavy rains and hailstorms have also damaged yields over the past month, they said. Australia will have a wheat crop of 26.1 MMT in 2012/13, according to the National Australia Bank, noting excellent subsoil moisture in the east. That's 12% down on last year's record harvest. A significant switch into rapeseed sowing, which kicks off around now, is anticipated this year. US weather remains largely favourable. Heavy rain in Europe, and the prospect for plenty more to come, has eased drought fears putting wheat under a bit of pressure. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: old crop corn up 3-5 cents, new crop mixed; soybeans up 5-7 cents; wheat mixed. 2008 |
## 2369 10/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw beans close 8-10 cents higher, corn flat to up 2 cents and wheat 3-4 cents steadier. WTI crude is around half a dollar lower, Brent is a dollar or so easier. The USDA numbers are out and are bullish for soybeans, and also a bit friendly for wheat too. For corn, leaving old crop ending stocks unchanged is bearish, even if nobody believes the 801 million number this month any more than they did last month. Increased feeding of wheat sees US ending stocks cut from 825 million bushels to 793 million. World wheat ending stocks were cut by more than anticipated to 206.3 MMT. The stand out is probably Brazil's soybean crop cut by 2.5 MMT to 66 MMT, lower than the lowest trade estimate, and before the ink is dry on that one we have just had CONAB chip in with an even lower number - 65.6 MMT. In contrast they've raised their corn production estimate to a record 65.1 MMT - 3.1 MMT above the USDA. The early start to US corn plantings this year, and the possibility therefore of some acres in the south being harvested in late August, might help alleviate some old crop tightness. The USDA also note that the daily ethanol disappearance fell to a 23-month low in January pushing ethanol stocks to a new record high. Weekly EIA ethanol production data suggests average daily ethanol production during February and March has continued to fall. Soybeans still look like the one with the most upside potential despite prices being at 7-month highs. Corn looks a bit bearish for the time being, and wheat may get dragged down with it, especially given that the USDA upped it's good/excellent rating for winter wheat three points to 61% last night & estimated spring wheat plantings jumped from 8% to 21% complete as of Sunday night, compared to just 3% last year and 5% on average. Customs data shows that China imported 4.83 MMT of soybeans in March, up 38% from March 2011 and 26% more than in February. That puts Jan-Mar cumulative soybean imports up 22% on last year at 13.33 MMT. Slap bang in the middle of all that, the USDA have just reported the sale of 165,000 MT of new crop soybeans to guess who under the daily reporting system? Algeria have bought 125 TMT of optional origin durum wheat for May/Jun shipment. They are also looking for 50 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Jun shipment. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session are all over the place. I'll go for corn 6-8- cents lower, beans 10-15 cents higher, wheat up 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2376 11/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with soybeans mixed, corn up 2-3 cents and wheat 5-6 cents higher. Crude is up a bit and the dollar a tad lower. Fresh news is limited today after yesterday's excitement. Outside markets seem to have stabilised following a bit of a rout yesterday. Soybeans were lower for much of the morning but the more active months generally managed to post modest gains by the close of the overnight session. There was a bit of frost about overnight in parts of the Midwest but no crop damage is thought likely to have been done. Now that insurance planting dates are being hit we can expect activity to crank up a notch or two. I appear to have hit bloggers block as I really can't think of anything else to say! Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-3 cents, soybeans flat to up 2 cents, wheat up 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 2377 12/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans 6-9 cents firmer, corn up 1-2 cents and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Crude has gone from being slightly higher to a tad lower, the dollar is also a bit weaker. The USDA gave us strong weekly export sales for corn of 959,100 MT old crop and 16,700 MT of new crop versus expectations of 400-850 TMT. Unknown took 291,100 MT of that and China was confirmed as having bought one 60,000 MT cargo. Soybean sales of 460,100 MT of old crop and 176,300 MT of new crop were a bit below expectations of 800 TMT-1.1 MMT. Wheat sales were 452,100 MT old crop and 90,400 MT new crop, against expectations of 400-600 TMT. The market may be asking where exactly is all this old crop corn going to come from? Let's hope that the USDA knows. WxRisk are forecasting a welcome major rain event for almost all of the Midwest with 75% coverage of 1-3 inches. That may slow planting up a little but will be beneficial overall. After a couple of days of consolidation are beans set to move higher again? The overnight market seems to think so, but a disappointing look to the export sales numbers may temper some of that enthusiasm a little. That said the USDA have just confirmed the sale of 115,000 MT of US soybeans to China and a further 189,000 MT to unknown. Both are split between old and new crop. Some switching of planting intentions must have gone on since the USDA numbers were collated, but how much? I still think we will have a soybean area closer to 75 million acres than the USDA's 73.9 million, but that doesn't make me bearish on beans, they still have the greatest upside potential for my money. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-3 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents, soybeans up 5-7 cents 2008 |
## 2386 13/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended barely changed in a the weekend can't come soon enough kind of a manner. Beans are around 7 cents higher on the week so far, with corn around 20 cents lower and wheat pretty flat. Crude is slightly easier and the dollar marginally firmer. Fresh news is extremely thin on the ground. US weather is non-threatening, European weather has improved. The USDA has reported the sale of 165,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. They just love it don't they? Argentine soybean production estimates keep getting smaller. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday went 44 MMT for Argentina, the Rosario equivalent now say 43.1 MMT. I have a funny feeling that once the harvest kicks off things could get lower again. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 1-2 cents; soybeans down 1-3 cents; old crop corn flat to up 2 cents, new crop down 1-2 cents. 2008 |
## 2391 02/04/12 -- The overnight markets saw a bit of consolidation with wheat ending 6-9 cents lower on old crop and with losses of 10-12 cents on new crop. Corn was 4 cents higher in front month May, but slightly weaker in new crop positions. The strongest leg, soybeans, were around 8 cents higher for old crop and 10-14 cents firmer for new crop. Crude is around half a dollar lower. April heralds the start of the regular Monday night crop progress reports, the first of which will be out after the close this evening. Winter wheat crop conditions will be of interest, so too will be a corn planting progress comparison with normal. Based on Friday's acreage numbers soybeans look set to remain the strongest leg of the complex for some time, even if the final planting figure is significantly higher than 73.9 million given South America's recent production losses. For corn we have the bullish tight old crop stocks story and the bearish highest plantings in 75 year bearish new crop story. For wheat we have much better than a year ago crop conditions, a harvest that isn't that far away now we are into April, and ample world stocks. We also have a still significant short position in Chicago and a European crop that looks like it's shrinking rather than growing. A new month usually also means new money. Funds are already record long soybeans, will they fancy coming in for more? For corn, they exited a decent slug of their length in the run-up to Friday's reports and for wheat they've held a sizable short for some time now, the magnitude of which has underpinned the market. The USDA report today the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop beans to China, that should add underlying support. They also report a similar volume of new crop meal sold to unknown. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat down 8-10 cents and soybeans up 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 2396 03/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw a bit of light consolidation with beans down 5-6 cents, wheat falling 5-10 cents and corn 2 cents higher on old crop to 3 cents lower on new crop. Brent crude is around half a dollar lower, NYMEX crude is three quarters of a dollar easier. The USDA reveal that spring wheat plantings are off to a flyer, with 8% of the crop already in the ground as of Sunday compared to just 2% normally. Winter wheat crop conditions are much better than last year at 58% good-to-excellent. Corn plantings however haven't progressed a lot, contrary to market expectations, going from 2% done last weekend to just 3% complete this weekend. Maybe that will see some corn acres shift into beans? Or maybe that's just caution, with few willing to plant ahead of the first planting insurance dates? Celeres have cut their Brazilian soybean crop forecast by almost 2 MMT to 67.97 MMT, around half a million less than the USDA although towards the higher end of other trade estimates. For corn, they've increased things slightly from 60.4 MMT to 60.71 MMT. Soybean harvesting is 76% done as of Friday, nine points ahead of a year ago. Summer corn harvesting is 61% complete, they added. A report on Bloomberg quoting French analysts Agritel says that European wheat prospects may have taken a 6 MMT hit at the hands of the February freeze and winter drought. Russia's exports have slowed right up with the Grain Union saying that the country only shipped 1.6 MMT of grains in March. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimate 2011/12 grain ending stocks at 18 MMT. Ukraine says it exported 2.41 MMT of grain last month, full 2011/12 exports are likely to be around 21 MMT. US winter wheat crop development is ahead of normal and harvesting of the 2012 crop is now only six weeks away! Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 5-10 cents lower, soybeans down 5-7 cents, corn 1-2 cents higher old crop and 1-2 cents lower on new crop. 2008 |
## 2406 05/04/12 -- The overnight grains see beans 3-4 cents higher, wheat a cent higher to 2 cents lower and corn around 1-2 cents easier. Crude is slightly higher and so too is the dollar. The USDA reveals weekly export sales of 408,300 MT for old crop wheat and 103,400 MT for new crop, compared to expectations of 300-500 TMT. In amongst the old crop sales was 38,000 MT for China. Exports of 404,700 MT were in line with recent weekly totals. Soybean sales of 406,900 MT of old crop and 706,000 MT for delivery in the 2012/13 beat analysts expectations of 600-850 TMT. Once again China took the lion's share accounting for 257,200 MT of old crop and 525,500 MT of the new crop. Corn sales of 937,600 MT old crop and 185,100 MT new crop also beat trade guesses of combined sales of 400-700 TMT. What will catch trader's eyes is China taking 394,000 MT of the old crop. China present in the weekly export sales for all three of the main protagonists has to be something of a first for quite some time. That may support the market tonight, particularly old crop corn. As we head into a long weekend nearby beans are up 19 3/4 cents on the week so far, with corn down 11 3/4 cents and wheat falling 20 1/4 cents, including the overnights. South American soybean production estimates keep falling. Midwest weather forecasts seem mostly favourable, although there's a light frost on the cards for some places little damage is expected with only 3% of the corn crop in the ground as of last Sunday. The results of today's Egyptian wheat tender will be out mid-session. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans up 3-4 cents; wheat up 1-2 cents; old crop corn up 2-3 cents, new crop corn down 1-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2416 27/03/12 -- The overnight markets are a little higher with beans and corn up around 4-6 cents and wheat around 2-4 cents steadier. Crude is a little lower but Brent remains above USD125/barrel whilst NYMEX WTI hovers around USD107/barrel. It's warmer and drier than normal both sides of the Atlantic. Winter wheat crop conditions in the US are way ahead of last year and crop development is at least a couple of weeks ahead of normal. Kansas wheat is has jumped to 59% good/excellent, up from 54% last week. Oklahoma's crop is in even better shape, with 75% of it rated in the top two categories compared to 70% a week ago. Last week's rains clearly did plenty of good. It's wheat conditions and production potential this side of the pond that is getting all the attention though, with Spain the primary concern, although the UK and northern France are also major worries. Even so the EU Commission's MARS unit say that EU-27 wheat yields will come in slightly higher than last year at 5.41 MT/ha. Spanish yields are seen down 14.2% for all wheat, with durum yields falling by almost a third. Romania is also flagged up as suffering with wheat and barley yields both down around 21%. Whilst US conditions look largely very favourable now things could still turn nasty in April. Then there's a whole summer of potential weather scares waiting. If the funds fancy it, and it looks like they do, who knows where prices might go if things turn shitty - particularly for soybeans which appear to have the most upside potential to me. Meanwhile, the trade is positioning ahead of Friday's USDA reports. Trade estimates for the US corn acreage average 94.7 million acres, up 2.8 million or 3% from 2011. Estimates range from 93.6 to 95.6 million acres. For soybeans the trade is forecasting 75.5 million acres, only half a million up on last year, despite prices close to USD14/bushel. Regardless of what the USDA say on Friday, longer term price direction is all about fund money. Yesterday they were said to have sold around 10,000 corn contracts and been net buyers of 9,000 lots of soybeans and 4,000 lots of wheat. Corn went down and beans and wheat ended higher. Simple! The USDA have just reported the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop soybeans to their favourite buyer, China. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 2-4 cents, corn and beans 4-6 cents higher. 2008 |
## 2427 29/03/12 -- The overnight grains saw beans 2-3 cents higher, with corn 3-5 cents lower and wheat down a cent or so. Crude oil is a bit weaker on talk that France, the US and the UK are in discussions with the International Energy Agency about a potential release of strategic oil reserves. In addition US stocks rose by 7.1 million barrels to 353.4 mln last week, the biggest weekly increase since July 2010 and inventories are now at their highest level in seven months. The USDA reported weekly export sales for wheat of a combined 403,100 MT, below expectations of 450-750 TMT. Shipments of of 440,900 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week. For corn we got old crop sales of 130,700 MT - a marketing-year low - and new crop sales of only 27,000 MT. That's way below the anticipated 600-900 TMT. Soybean sales of 471,900 MT for old crop and 120,400 MT for new crop were within the range of trade estimates of 450-750 TMT. China took 209,900 MT of the old crop and 55,000 MT of the new crop. In addition, the USDA have reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China overnight under the daily reporting system. Despite the funds having already liquidated an estimated 35-40,000 corn contracts heading into tomorrow's USDA reports these numbers may encourage some further load lightening this afternoon. In addition, despite plenty of rumours to the contrary, there was no sign of China as a featured corn buyer. That may drag wheat a bit lower with it as US weather remains non-threatening with no frost in the 7-10 day forecast. We also have very favourable conditions for fieldwork in the Midwest and beneficial rains in the Southern Plains having improved HRW wheat conditions substantially in recent weeks. Concerns remain over Western European dryness though, some moisture is in the forecast for Eastern Europe in the week ahead. The USDA have just reported the sale of 120,000 MT of US corn to unknown. Interesting. There are all sorts of things you could read into that. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 3-5 cents, wheat down 1-3 cents, beans up 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 2449 20/03/12 -- The overnight market is red across the board with beans down 10-13 cents and corn & wheat around 6-9 cents lower. WTI crude is a dollar or so weaker, with Brent falling around USD1.75/barrel. Outside markets are also mostly negative with gold and equities also falling. The dollar is a bit firmer, adding a bit more downside pressure. Profit-taking looks like being the order of the day again, with no sign of a turnaround Tuesday in sight so far. Russia's announcement that they won't be introducing any sort of export restrictions this season is being credited for having knocked some of the stuffing out of the market. Rusagrotrans say grain exports in Feb fell to 1.1 MMT due to ice restricting movements. That brings Jul-Feb exports to 20.6 MMT, they see the full 2011/12 MY at 25.5-26 MMT, comfortably below the government's suggested ceiling. The US weather finally seems to be playing ball too, with rain where it's wanted and warmth and dryness where that is wanted too. There were good rains in central OK, KS, and TX yesterday, and the dry areas of Western KS and Eastern CO look set to receive rains in next few days also. Winter wheat is 3-4 weeks ahead of normal development, which is fine as long as we don't get an April freeze. The latter certainly isn't out of the question though. As things stand Midwest corn planting looks like getting off to a flyer. Linn Group are estimating US all wheat plantings at 57 million acres, with corn at 94.8 million and soybeans at 76.7 million. March 1st stocks for wheat are seen at 1.216 billion bushels, for corn 6.112 billion and for beans 1.387 billion. Last month the USDA's Outlook Forum pegged corn acres at 94 million, soybeans at 75 million and wheat at 58 million. Based on where the overnights are now we see May 12 beans down 20 1/4 cents, May 12 corn down 18 1/2 cents and May 12 CBOT wheat down 28 1/2 cents from Friday night's closing levels. For corn yesterday's export inspections were pretty poor and cumulative shipments now lag year ago levels by more than 23 million bushels. Soybean and wheat inspections were also on the low side. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12 cents, wheat & corn down 7-9 cents. 2008 |
## 2454 21/03/12 -- The overnight grains didn't offer much this morning, with beans 1-3 cents firmer and corn & wheat 2-3 cents weaker. Crude is up slightly and the dollar is a touch firmer against the pound and the euro. French cereal lobby Orama said yesterday that 700,000 ha of winter crops have suffered winterkill and will need to be replanted, that's 8 percent of the total area sown in the autumn and easily the largest estimate yet, which immediately puts me in mind of the little boy who cried wolf for some reason. They also said that the European debt crisis is over and that President Sarkozy is in reality six foot tall and is only made to look small via a complicated combination of smoke & mirrors to keep Angela Merkel happy. As ever we are all once again hanging on the USDA's every word awaiting next week's planting intentions report. The corn area is seen anywhere between 93.7-95.5 million acres depending on who you want to run with, versus 94 million at the February Outlook Forum. The post-War high for corn area was the 93.527m acres planted in 2007. For soybeans we are looking at an area of 74.7-76.7 million acres (the USDA Forum last month said 75 million), and for wheat 57-59.2 million (58 million last month). Meanwhile we have improved weather conditions for developing winter wheat, which are also conducive for early corn planting which is putting the grains under a little bit of pressure. Morocco and Algeria are both said to have bought South American wheat, with EU and US origins too expensive. The Russian export pace has faded at such a rate that breaching the government's 27 MMT limit suddenly looks highly unlikely. Ukraine is still going hammer and tongs at corn exports in particular, although they've also sold 100,000 MT of wheat to Bangladesh this week. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn & wheat 2-4 cents lower, soybeans up 2-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2468 12/03/12 -- Predictably, before the ink is even dry, Friday's USDA report is fish & chip wrappings and we are now all waiting to see what they have to say about prospective plantings at the end of the month. With prices where they currently are US growers are spoilt for choice. Much of the US will experience temperatures well above normal during the next two weeks with highs in the low 80's on the cards by midweek. Farmers will be itching to get their crops in nice and early by the looks of it. That should maximise spring crops yield potential unless Mother Nature turns nasty with an April frost. A scenario not unknown. The overnights finished mostly a tad lower with the exception of nearby corn which was 2 1/2 cents firmer. Crude is down sharply with Brent losing around USD1.60/barrel and NYMEX falling almost USD2.00/barrel as tensions between Iran and the West ease a little. News that China has just unveiled it's largest trade deficit in at least a decade last month hasn't helped ease fears of slumping growth hurting demand for crude. As yet there has been no confirmation of the rumoured Chinese buying of US corn that dragged the market higher on Friday despite a bearish slant to the USDA numbers for corn. Customs data shows that China imported 3.83 MMT of soybeans in February, down 17% from the 4.61 MMT brought in in January. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans flat to down 2 cents, corn mixed up 2 to down 3 cents and wheat flat to down 2 cents. 2008 |
## 2473 13/03/12 -- The overnight grains see beans around 10-12 cents higher, with corn up 2-3 cents and wheat 4-6 cents firmer. Crude is down around 30 cents/barrel. Bang on cue the USDA have reported sales of 240,000 MT of old crop corn to unknown destinations, everyone will assume that that means China. Whilst that can't really be construed as bearish it may be worth considering that we've already seen corn add 26 1/2 cents since Thursday's close on the back of strong rumours of Chinese buying. Chinese domestic corn prices are apparently not far off being USD10/bu, with soybean levels running at double that, so you can see why imports look attractive. Farmers in the Midwest will be itching to get planting, with Chicago set to get mid and upper 70-degree readings over much of the coming week as temperatures rise way above normal. Oil World peg the Brazilian soybean crop at 68 MMT, half a million below the figure that the USDA released on Friday. The Ukraine Ag Ministry have cut their 2012 wheat crop estimate from 16 MMT to 14 MMT, a drop of more than a third on last year's crop of 22 MMT. The US, Japan and the European Union have filed a case against China with the WTO, challenging its restrictions on rare earth exports, reports the BBC. Interesting development, could be seen as potentially bearish as it may switch demand for corn and beans away from the US to South America. On the other hand would China want to get involved in a trade war and cut off it's nose to spite it's face? Drought in Western Europe, particularly Spain is starting to make the headlines. December, January and February have been the driest in Spain since at least the 1940s, according to the national weather office. Farmers in Aragon, one of the worst hit regions, will lose around EUR1.3 billion this season due to the lack of rain, according to the farmers association ASAJA. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans 10 to 12 cents higher, corn up 2 to 4 cents and wheat 3 to 5 cents firmer. 2008 |
## 2480 14/03/12 -- The overnight market sees soybeans modestly higher, up 1-3 cents, with corn 3-5 cents lower and wheat down mostly 2-4 cents. Crude is around half a dollar weaker and the USD is up a tad. March CBOT contracts go off the board today. Fresh news is scarce. US weather offers an opportunity for early plantings. Not only should this maximise yield potential, it also could mean an early harvest which for corn in particular could be important given the fairly tight carryout situation. It also could mean a repetition of 2010 when the USDA got all mixed up and seemingly included some new crop corn into the old crop carryout, remember that one? Reports on Twitter suggest that a senior IGC economist sees the 2012/13 world corn crop at a record 880 MMT, from 864 MMT in 2011/12. Global consumption however is also seen rising to 884 MMT from 871 MMT with the increase driven mainly by higher feed usage. NOPA's February soybean crush came in at 136.35 million bushels, down 6.463 million from a month ago but up 11.466 million from a year ago and above expectations of 132.6 million. Early calls have beans 1-3 cents firmer, corn down 3-5 cents and wheat down 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 2485 15/03/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans around 10-12 cents firmer, corn up 3-5 cents and wheat 2-4 cents higher. WTI crude is down 30 cents or so and Brent is down almost a dollar. Soybeans are back in the driving seat after a couple of days rest Friday/Monday. The USDA have reported weekly soybean sales of 609,700 MT for old crop and 784,000 MT for new crop, giving us a combined total of an impressive almost 1.4 MMT, once again that's well above expectations of 650 to 900 thousand MT. Omnipresent China took 368,200 MT of the old crop and almost all of the new crop (669,000 MT). Corn sales were 836,400 MT, all of old crop, at the top end of trade estimates for sales of 600 to 850 thousand MT. Wheat sales were slack at 302,400 MT of old crop and 57,900 MT of new crop. Trade estimates were for sales of 400 to 600 TMT. Weekly shipments of 913,000 MT however were a marketing-year high and well above what we have seen of late. Strategie Grains have cut their EU-27 2012 wheat and barley production estimates due to winterkill in France and Germany and drought in Spain. Corn production looks set to benefit on the back of increased plantings with output raised 2 MMT. Agroconsult have cut their 2011/12 Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.8 MMT to 67.1 MMT. US ethanol production fell by 14,000 barrels/day last week to 892,000 bpd. That's the first time in six months that output has been lower than the same week a year previously. Signs that the removal of the tax credit is finally starting to bite? In China, corn futures on the Dalian exchange have jumped to new highs overnight. Egypt have bought one cargo each of Canadian and US wheat for May delivery. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, beans up 10-12 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 2503 07/03/12 -- After a bit of consolidation yesterday the overnight grains were very lifeless with little change for beans, wheat or corn. Brent crude is around 75 cents firmer with WTI up half a dollar or so after China said it would boost energy imports this year. The dollar is firmer on it's safe haven status on nervousness that Greece won't get enough of it's bondholders to agree to take a more than 50% haircut on the debt they hold. The deadline is 20.00 GMT tomorrow, with a minimum of 75% needing to agree to swap their existing Greek government bonds for new debt. Brazil's soybean crop is generally forecast in the range of 68-71 MMT versus 72 MMT from the USDA last month. Argentina's production is expected at around 45-48 MMT compared to 48 MMT from the USDA last month. These lower production numbers should be more than priced into a market that's seen CBOT soybean prices up for 14 of the last 16 sessions during which time Mar 12 has risen by more than a dollar a bushel. Brazil's corn crop is seen around the 60 MMT mark, aided by hopes for a strong performance from safrinha corn, 1 MMT less than the USDA said last time. Argentina's corn crop is expected to come in around 20 MMT, some 2 MMT lower than the current USDA number. Once we get Friday's report out of the way we will no doubt end up in limbo again waiting for the planting intentions numbers at the end of the month. Prior to that though, could Friday's WASDE report be usurped by Greece taking one step closer to a default if it fails to persuade enough bondholders to go for their debt swap? Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat flat to 2 cents lower, corn and soybeans mixed 2 cents higher to 2 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2512 09/03/12 -- The USDA report contained a bit of something for everyone, bulls and bears alike. Twitter is awash with conflicting suggestions as to whether this afternoon will have a bullish or bearish theme. My take on it is that the soybean numbers are bullish overall, with slightly larger cuts than anticipated to the crops in South America. I think that the trade will shrug off the USDA leaving US ending stocks unchanged and cutting Chinese demand slightly. The corn numbers are bearish, there's no two ways about it. A raise in output for Brazil, despite being hinted at by CONAB yesterday, was not expected and neither was production in Argentina thought likely to be left unchanged. US ending stocks weren't reduced at all, and although world ending stocks were it was not by as much as expected. Add in the fact that a bullish report was expected and that possibly doubles up the bearish nature of this report. The wheat numbers look mildly friendly, but given that world ending stocks are now only marginally less than record highs and that for corn the report is bearish then I'd expect wheat to get dragged lower this afternoon. Soybeans up, corn down taking wheat with it, that's how it looks to me. A situation not unusual this past few weeks. EU wheat seems to have moved a bit higher since the report came out though, so what do I know? Bear in mind also that soybeans are already heavily overbought and we do have a weekend coming up. On the weather front A more active subtropical jet stream is giving the Southern Great Plains winter wheat a good chance for rainfall. Texas and Oklahoma are expecting soaking rain over the next few days, say Martell Crop Projections. Rainfall of .75 inch is expected, but over 1 inch locally. On the other hand, the Kansas forecast is dry except perhaps the south-central district, they say. Further north temperatures in the northern United States are expected to turn unseasonably warm in the next several days. Sioux City, Iowa will reach the mid 60s F next week. The windy and warm weather would serve to dry out the topsoil in the Northern United States. Some fieldwork may even begin with a stretch of sunny open weather, they add. Another influence this afternoon is that Informa are due out around an hour after the opening with their revised planting estimates. The recent price movements in beans relative to corn may see some additional soybean acres getting added. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, corn flat to 2 cents firmer. Where we close will be of more importance than where we open. 2008 |
## 2534 01/03/12 -- The overnight grains ended lower with beans down 4-5 cents, corn around 3 cents easier and wheat losing 4 to 4 1/2 cents in a bit of light consolidation from recent gains. Crude is up half a dollar or so and the US is unchanged. The USDA reported weekly export sales of a combined 509,100 MT for wheat, at the low end of expectations of 500-700,000 MT. Shipments of only 205,800 MT were rather disappointing and the worst since the first week of the marketing year save for the holiday shortened New Year week. For corn we got sales of a combined 713,000 MT in the middle of expectations of 650-850,000 MT. Soybean sales cam in at the top end of expectations at a combined 976,400 MT. There are reports that early harvest yield results from northern Brazil have been better than expected, which may offset some of the losses anticipated in the south of the country still to come. After several successive up days some downwards correction looks like being on the cards amidst overbought conditions in soybeans and corn. Wheat will simply follow. The USDA reports the sale of 120,000 MT of HRW wheat to Iran despite sanctions against them. Early calls have corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 3-4 cents and soybeans down 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2549 21/02/12 -- The overnight grains are mixed but mostly lower on the first trading day of trading after the long weekend with beans narrowly either side and corn & wheat around 6 cents easier. Greece has got its bailout approved but the market is already wondering if it will be enough before the ink is even dry. That last one wasn't, so why should this second one in less than two years be any different? All it has done is maybe bought a bit more time. The market is now turning its attention to the upcoming USDA Outlook Forum, although it seems most likely that they will simply re-iterate last week's baseline numbers of 94 million acres of corn and 74 million acres of soybeans getting sown in the US this spring. It's more than a month off before we get a set of more official figures with the March 30 planting intentions report. European weather has warmed up, easing any further winter kill fears. Pakistan says that it expects wheat production and exports there to match last year's bumper levels. India will also shortly begin harvesting an anticipated record crop of it's own. Russia has exported 19.8 MMT of grain to date in the current marketing year, according to the Ag Ministry there, leaving 7.2 MMT to go before they hit their newly revised 27 MMT cap. My agronomist mate in Ukraine, Mike Lee, reports that the Agrarian Confederation there estimate that 3.5 million ha of winter crops will need resowing this spring but that yields will be at the 5-year average. He also suggests that corn seed is getting hard to come by. Beans look set to remain the strongest leg of the complex. They were up by 3.1% last week, compared to wheat rising 2.2% and corn increasing by only 1.6%. The USDA have just reported 250,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for 2012/13 and 110,744 MT of corn to unknown for 2011/12. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans flat to 2 cents firmer, corn and wheat down 5-7 cents. 2008 |
## 2555 22/02/12 -- The overnight grains closed lower with beans falling around 4-6 cents and wheat and corn 2-3 cents weaker. Crude is down a tad and the dollar is slightly firmer. The USDA have announced the sale of 175,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. The USDA's Annual Outlook Conference will take place on Thursday and Friday, with the final day giving us some early thoughts on US plantings for this year's harvest. The trade is expecting 94 million acres for corn, 74 million for soybeans and 56.5 million for wheat. A return to anything close to trendline yields would give us a record corn crop in 2012. Evidence is building that corn demand from the all important ethanol sector is starting to get choked off with corn at these levels and the blenders' tax credit now history. Concerns over dryness in the northern Plains hampering spring plantings should be partially alleviated by forecast precipitation this week and into the first half of next week. Tunisia is tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat, Bangladesh is in for 60,000 MT and Taiwan has bought 58,000 MT of Brazilian soybeans. European weather has warmed up, fostering belief that any potential winter kill damage will not have been any worse than in a normal year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 4-6 cents, corn and wheat 1-3 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2566 24/02/12 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with wheat 4-6 cents lower, corn down 2-3 cents and soybeans flat to 1 1/2 cents higher. Crude is up again and the dollar is a bit weaker. The USDA's Outlook Forum suggests a record 362.5 MMT of corn coming out of the US this year, 40 MMT more than they've ever produced. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are seen more than doubling to 41 MMT. Wheat production in 2012 is seen rebounding 8.3% to 58.9 MMT and soybean output is expected to come in at 88.5 MMT, up 6.4% on last year. Lower production in South America this year should mean the increased availability US soybeans will have a minimal effect on prices. US 2012/13 ending stocks for soybeans are pegged at 205 million bushels (5.6 MMT), a reduction of 25% on this season. US wheat ending stocks next season are seen at 957 million bushels, or 26 MMT, an increase of 13% on this year. Today's weekly export sales report came in at 840,800 MT for corn, at the low end of the expected range of 800,000 to 1,250,000 MT. China didn't feature as a buyer. For soybeans old crop sales were a marketing-year high of 1,159,400 MT, with China taking around half of that (521,100 MT). There were also sales of 2,873,000 MT for delivery in the 2012/2013. Expectations were for combined sales of around 3.5 MMT. Wheat sales of 701,600 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week plus an additional 55,800 MT for delivery in the 2012/2013 fell into line with expectations of 500 to 900 thousand MT. The tug of war between mildly bullish/friendly soybeans and a more bearish slant going forward on wheat and corn continues. I'd expect new crop on the latter to come under particular pressure as we go forward - starting with this afternoon! The wheat fundamentals are bearish for both old and new crop. Meanwhile, despite crude oil hitting nine month highs on the old reliable stalwart of tensions in the Middle East US ethanol stocks have never been higher at 21.5 million barrels. Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans mixed up 1 to down 1, corn down 3 to 5 cents, and wheat down 4 to 6 cents. I'd look for a weaker performance from new crop corn & wheat. 2008 |
## 2577 15/02/12 -- The overnight grains were mostly steadier with beans ending around 5-7 cents higher, with wheat up 2-3 cents and corn flat to a cent firmer. Crude is around a dollar or so higher. I've just heard an unconfirmed report on the radio that today's meeting of EU financial leaders to ratify Greece's austerity deal has been cancelled, saying that further assurances are required first. I can't find confirmation of that on the BBC or Reuters though. This has all the hallmarks of the largest and most ludicrously false application for a loan in history. With an election due in April it would seem that the Troika are looking for assurances that a new government won't simply turn round and say I think you'll find that it was the last lot that signed that agreement, not us. Not only is a Greek exit from the eurozone now being openly discussed, a bit like Carlos Tevez, the BBC are now reporting that some eurozone team-mates no longer want them in the bloc. Soybeans look the strongest of the three, indeed wheat and corn have only closed lower that night's closing levels once this month. China has bought 116,000 MT of US soybeans for 2011/12 delivery today, say the USDA. Oil World have cut their Brazilian soybean estimate from 70.0 MMT to 69.5 MMT and also their forecast for Parguay from 6.0 MMT to 4.6 MMT. They've increased their Argentine estimate from 46.5 MMT to 47 MMT. All three figures are below the USDA's 72 MMT, 6.4 MMT and 48 MMT respectively. Ukraine says they have no plans to limit grain exports. There were however suggestions last week that the government had asked shippers to lighten up on wheat exports due to doubts over the health of the current over-wintering crop. Regardless of the state of the 2012 wheat crop in Ukraine there is no shortage of the grain elsewhere around the globe with Western Australia state saying that they have had a 15 MMT record grain harvest this year, backing up ABARES forecast of a record 29.5 MMT wheat crop in 2011/12 released yesterday. With forecasts of exports at 22.3 MMT that would make them second only to the US in terms of being the world's largest wheat seller. Corn is what Ukraine has plenty of, and that situation looks like being replicated in 2012/13 by virtue of a large increase in planted area this spring due to the failure of winter wheat and rapeseed. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 6-8 cents, corn flat to 2 cents firmer, wheat up 1-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2582 16/02/12 -- The overnight grains see beans 6-7 cents lower, corn around 2 cents easier and wheat flat to a cent lower. Crude is down 77 cents. The dollar is firmer as the market adopts a bit more of a risk off strategy, with the Greek problem now looking like rumbling on past elections there in April. The USDA have reported corn weekly export sales of 1,005,900 MT for 2011/12 and a further 61,500 MT for delivery in 2012/13, significantly higher than the 550-750 TMT expected. Wheat sales were 420,400 MT for old crop and 7,500 MT for new crop, a bit lower than the 450-650 TMT expected. Soybean sales were 436,700 MT for 2011/12 and 178,000 MT for delivery in 2012/13 - in line with the predicted 600-750 TMT. Egypt bought three cargoes of US wheat at USD259/tonne FOB, confirming that US wheat prices are at last competitive into North Africa. Taiwan has also bought US wheat today. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 6-8 cents, wheat and corn flat to down 2 cents. 2008 |
## 2588 17/02/12 -- The overnight grains closed higher with beans up 10-12 cents, corn up 4-5 cents and wheat up 7-9 cents. Crude is almost a dollar higher and the USD is weaker. There's not much change on the week as a whole for corn and wheat but beans are up around 40 cents including the overnights. In a raft of export business the USDA have announced the sale of 132,000 MT of corn to South Korea, 120,000 MT of wheat to unknown, 20,000 MT of soyoil to Morocco, 173,000 MT of beans to China and a further 2.75 MMT of new crop beans also sold to China. There seems to be plenty of business about as you can see, and America seems to be the cheapest shop in town right now. There are signs that Ukraine are more or less done selling wheat, although a private Israeli group is said to have bought Ukraine wheat and Russian corn this week. The latter was also conspicuous by it's absence in yesterday's Egyptian tender. South American crop conditions appear to have stabilised. EU wheat probably hasn't suffered as much damage as the market thought, but we don't know that for certain yet. Monday is President's Day in the US so the markets there are closed. Once again (how many times is this?) there is optimism that Greece will get it's wretched bailout money approved on Monday. If it does then I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to go over there and insert it one euro at a time up the entire Greek cabinet's back passage. It looks like we are going higher tonight, if however the Greek deal turns out to be yet another false dawn all bets could be off and back down we go again when Chicago resumes trading again on Monday night. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, wheat up 7-9 cents, beans up 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 2597 06/02/12 -- The overnight grains ended mixed with beans up 5 cents or so, wheat down 1-3 cents and corn up a fraction to 1 1/2 cents lower. Crude is a dollar or so easier on concerns that a Greek debt deal is never going to get sorted, and the implications for the global economy that that entails. The IMF warned today that Chinese growth could be cut in half if the European debt crisis gets any worse. There's a distinct lack of fresh concrete fundamental news about, with the market already looking set to drift along impatiently waiting for the USDA reports due out on Thursday. The main issues being currently discussed are difficult to quantify at this stage. It's too early to say how much, if any, damage has been done to winter crops across Europe, Russia and Ukraine by the recent cold snap, although certainly it seems that 20-30% of Ukraine's area will need replanting once the thaw sets in. There are also voices being raised over a dry, mild and snow free winter for much of the US corn belt ahead of spring planting. Meanwhile there are plenty of weather issues in South America too, although decent rains are in the forecast for Argentina again midweek. It looks certain that corn & soybean production estimates will be cut for both Brazil and Argentina on Thursday, and probably corn output in Mexico too. Celeres have cut their Brazilian corn crop estimate from 62.0 MMT to 60.2 MMT, and say that the harvest is around 8% complete. Rains may have come just in the nick of time for Argentina's soybean crop with the Ministry of Agriculture there placing good/excellent conditions at 64%, an 8 point increase in a week. Unfortunately only 35% of the corn crop gets the same thumbs up. China says that it will import 24% fewer soybeans in February, despite rumours that they have been active buyers of US beans this past week since returning from their New Year celebrations. Russia has dismissed the idea of export restrictions for now, raised it's 2011 grain production estimate and increased its self-imposed maximum limit to 27 MMT for 2011/12. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 3-5 cents, wheat & corn mixed, up 2 cents to down 2 cents. 2008 |
## 2602 07/02/12 -- The overnight grains are lower with wheat down around 7 cents, corn down 4-5 cents and beans falling 3-4 cents. Crude is a dollar easier, trading below USD96/barrel for the first time in seven weeks on ample US stocks and sluggish demand from a stuttering global economy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that time is running out for Greece to resolve and implement it's austerity issues. Rusagrotrans say that Russian grain exports were 19.5 MMT to the end of January and are likely to total 1.6-1.7 MMT this month, bringing the 2011/12 year to date total to a little over 21 MMT at the end of February. They also say that the country could export 27-28 MMT this season (Jul/Jun). Kazakhstan's Agricultre Minister says that the landlocked nation's grain exports are now running at around 1.2 MMT/month. A Bloomberg survey suggests that high prices will encourage US farmers to plant the largest area of corn, soybeans and wheat for the 2012 harvest since 1984 at 226.9 million acres. PotashCorp recently forecast that 7m acres of land will exit the US Conservation Reserve Program this year and with most of that land expected to be planted to wheat. Informa meanwhile are predicting the largest US corn acreage since WWII. There's some rain in the forecast for Argentina tomorrow, before a bloody good soaking arrives on Thursday, according to the GFS model. After the recent rally it looks like we are going to see some money taken off the table today ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE report on Thursday. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 3-4 cents, beans down 3-5 cents, wheat down 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 2608 08/02/12 -- The overnight grains finished with beans around 6-8 cents higher, corn up 3-5 cents and wheat around 3 cents firmer. Crude is more than a dollar higher on nervousness over Iran and Syria. Soybeans closed at their best levels for a front month since mid-October in overnight trade. Maybe nobody heard that Argentina got 0.75-3.5 inches of rain overnight, with more in the forecast for tomorrow. The National Weather Service has issued a heavy rain alert for central and northern Entre Rios, Santa Fe and Cordoba. The trade is relying on the USDA coming up with some bullish impetus for the sector tomorrow. What could possibly go wrong? US corn ending stocks are seen at around 800 million bushels vs 846 million last month. Soybean stocks at 270 million vs 275 million last time and wheat stocks are forecast at around 865 million from 870 million in January. Brazil and Argentina will get cuts to their corn and soybean production forecasts of a combined 5.0 MMT and 5.5 MMT respectively, according to the average trade guess. There are rumours of US wheat undercutting EU origin into Spain. There is also talk that a US sale to unknown last week is in fact destined for Egypt. Severe weather continues to disrupt grain movements out of the Black Sea. It is unclear if some of these rumoured sales are really just switches of origin due to short-term logistical problems in Russia and Ukraine. Tunisia is said to have bought 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Taiwan is tendering to buy US wheat and Oman has bought 50,000 MT of Kazakh wheat. Early calls for this afternoon's final day session prior to tomorrow's USDA report: beans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents, corn up 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2617 10/02/12 -- Apologies for the lack of blogging activity today, I've been busy with other things. The fallout from last night continues I see, with the overnight grains finishing lower across the board. Beans ended 8-10 cents lower with wheat down 6-8 cents and corn 3-4 cents weaker. Crude is down USD2/barrel, which won't help the grains sector this afternoon. Neither will the fanfare heralded Greek deal on austerity that fellow EU member countries are lining up to say is toilet paper. Chinese economic data this week has been poor, the worst since the last financial crisis in fact, to add a bit more uncertainty concerning the world recovery - if there really is one. Britain feels like it's in a recession to me. If GBP275 billion hasn't done the trick what difference is another GBP50 billion going to make? The dollar is higher on a touch of flight to safety which won't help US exports too much, and is also bearish grains. The word on the streets is that US ethanol margins suck, which would appear to be confirmed by a slump in production last week. The loss of the blenders' tax credit now appears to be biting, although the USDA held it's corn for ethanol demand steady at 5 billion bushels yesterday. The USDA have confirmed the sale of 120,000 MT of soybean to China and 240,000 MT of corn to Egypt, but that's as bullish as it gets today. I see red. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session are: beans down 8-10 cents, wheat down 6-8 cents, corn down 2-4 cents. This will be an interesting close tonight, will our old bottom picking mates the funds pile in looking to bag a pre-weekend bargain? If they fancy getting out then there may not anyone else looking to step in and we could see some significant losses by the close of play. 2008 |
## 2623 30/01/12 -- The overnight grains began the week lower for the first time in seven weeks. Beans finished the Globex session around 14 cents lower, with corn down 7-8 cents and wheat down 6-10 cents. Crude is a bit weaker and the US dollar a little firmer. There was apparently some rain for parts of Argentina over the weekend, with the Rosario Grain Exchange saying that some areas have had up to 25mm in the past 72 hours. A decent amount more in the forecasts from today through to Thursday. With month-end looming it seems that some consolidation is due. Wheat has added 53 cents since the 18th of the month, with corn putting on 48 1/4 cents and beans 35 cents, so maybe there will be a bit of profit-taking too. Temperatures in Russia and Ukraine are raising a few eyebrows. Wednesday's high, yes high, of the day in Moscow is reported to be -19C by the BBC. See here: As ever European debt concerns are never far away. Greek insists that it will sort a deal out with private bond holders, but it hasn't quite managed it yet. It's a heavy week for bond auctions across Europe this week as EU leaders meet in Brussels. Portuguese yields are through the roof and more 16-24 year olds in Spain are unemployed than employed. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-15 cents, wheat down 5-7 cents and corn down 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 2631 31/01/12 -- The overnight grains were higher in classic Turnaround Tuesday style. Beans finished with gains of around 4-5 cents, corn was up 6-7 cents and wheat leading the way 10-12 cents firmer. Broad-based commodity buying sees crude rise more than USD2/barrel. All those that forecast 2012 to be another year of great volatility in the grain markets have certainly got off to a flyer. A ludicrously naive wave of optimism, which appears to be grossly underestimating the enormity of the European debt crisis, appears to the fore. Prudence has been swept aside by a tsunami of money searching for a quick buck. Longer term I think you have to be bearish, but there'd have to be a strong element of King Canute in me in attempting to order back this particular wave. It's been some time since every snippet of bullish information was seized upon with such vigour, but that is certainly the mood that the market seems to be in today. Very cold in Russia and Ukraine. Buy, buy. Increased corn plantings in the latter resulting in likely record crop later this year. Ignore, ignore. Rains forecast every day this week in Argentina. Ignore that as well. Russia may, or may not, introduce some form of export restrictions at some indeterminate time in the future. Yes, let's have that on board. Buy, buy. Comments from Greece that a deal is close (how long has it been close, and what real good will it do anyway other than nurse Greece through to it's next cardiac arrest?) with private bond holders is being greeted as if the entire eurozone crisis has been resolved, aided by a bit of back slapping and palm squeezing in Brussels. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 4-6 cents, corn up 6-8 cents, wheat up 10-12 cents with exasperated sort-covering in the latter a feature. 2008 |
## 2638 01/02/12 -- The overnight grains continued to build on last night's solid gains with beans closing around 8-10 cents firmer, corn up 8-9 cents and wheat 8-12 cents higher. Crude is a bit higher too and the dollar weaker, both adding support. Oil World became the latest analyst to downgrade crop production in South America, issuing a forecast for soybean output in Argentina of 46.5 MMT and in Brazil of 70.0 MMT. Both estimates are down 2 MMT on previously and towards the low end of other trade forecasts. The USDA are reporting 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China and a similar volume of SRW wheat sold to unknown. Extreme cold is already in place in Ukraine and Russia, effectively bringing exports out of the Black Sea to a halt. Similar Arctic conditions are now setting in for much of the rest of Europe. Russia is said by some to be reviewing it's stance on grain exports tomorrow. Greece says that a deal with private bond holders is a formality to be be concluded in a matter of days which is buoying European stock markets. The early call for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 8-10 cents, wheat and soybeans up 10-12 cents. There's also an element of new month, new money kicking about today. 2008 |
## 2645 02/02/12 -- The overnight grains are lower with wheat down 8-10 cents, corn some 5-7 cents weaker and beans around 7-8 cents lower. Crude oil is a dollar or so easier, below USD97/barrel for the first time since before Christmas and the US dollar is a touch firmer. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 518,900 MT of 2011/12 and 35,200 MT of 2012/13 for wheat - in line with trade forecasts. For corn they came up with 912,000 MT for 2011/12 and 63,000 MT for 2012/13 which was again in line with expectations for sales of 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT. Soybean sales were poor at 308,400 MT for 2011/12 and 60,000 MT for delivery in 2012/13. Trade expectations were for sales of 450-750,000 MT. Weekly wheat shipments of 454,500 MT were a bit better than of late, but once more didn't quite reach the level required to hit the USDA's full 2011/12 target of 25 MMT. They've fallen below the required level now for 15 of the last 17 weeks. US ethanol stocks are said to be at their highest levels in more than eight months, a hangover no doubt from record production in the run-up to the expiry of the blenders tax credit at the end of 2011. Jordan has bought 150,000 MT of unspecified origin wheat in a tender. Freezing temperatures in Russia are not expected to cause much crop damage as most of the European part of the country is lying under 35cm of snow, according to the Federal Hydrometeorological Centre. There's been no official announcement yet on the export situation in Russia, although the market is expecting something today. Reading between the lines of what has been said I don't think that they will be introducing an export ban. Today's meeting regarding the export situation may be more of a review of the maximum volume that the government will be happy to see sold abroad. So don't be surprised to see the figure of 24-25 MMT getting increased a little. Given that exports have slowed substantially, that domestic prices are said to have risen significantly and much of their remaining stocks are supposed to be held well away from the ports I think that they will be hoping that the market regulates itself. Introducing a second export ban in the space of two years could be seen as being too damaging. Well below zero temperatures are on the cards for France, Poland and Germany today and through the weekend, raising concerns of crop damage there. India has revised it's 2012 wheat production estimate up to a record 88.3 MMT, a 2.8% increase on last year. Harvesting begins next month. The USDA has lowered it's Mexican corn production estimate by 2.1 MMT to 18.4 MMT due to drought. Imports are now forecast at 10.5 MMT from 9.8 MMT previously. The longest formality in history drags on, with still no deal on the table between Greece and it's private bond holders. A side issue, but one of interest nevertheless, is that the Baltic Dry Index has plumbed to a new all-time low of 651 today. The grain market will be hoping that the BDI isn't the great indicator for the health of the global economy and forecaster of the future for commodities that many say it is. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-6 cents, beans down 6-8 cents wheat down 8-10 cents. 2008 |
## 2660 17/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed higher with beans up around 18 cents, corn up 7-8 cents and wheat 6-9 cents firmer. Crude oil is around two dollars higher, lending support. Weather in Argentina is the key driver, although decent rains are in the forecast Sunday/Monday that's still 5-6 days away. The Rosario Grain Exchange have lowered their Argy corn crop estimate to 21.4 MMT from 26 MMT and for soybeans they now say 50.5 MMT from 52 MMT. The corn harvest is just about underway in southern Brazil, according to Celeres. Yields are expected to be down on drought earlier in the season. For now the market seems to have shrugged off ratings downgrades for France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria and others and even yesterday the eurozone bailout fund the EFSF itself. Determined to press on S&P's are expected to start downgrading various European banks as soon as today. ECB President Super Mario Draghi says that the situation in Europe is a very grave state of affairs. Greece is running out of time, and it seems determination, to get her act together. Contingency plans are doubtless being made behind the scenes in other European countries if indeed she does default in March. The NOPA December US soybean crush came in 145.45 million bushels, up a little over 4 million on November and higher than trade estimates of 140.8 million. China's fourth quarter GDP grew by 8.9% - a very decent performance by most standards, but in fact the slowest pace in two years. Half full or half empty? It looks like fund money will be looking to get back into grains today following another dry weekend in Argentina. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 15-20 cents higher, corn up 6-8 cents, wheat up 7-9 cents. 2008 |
## 2669 18/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed lower in turnaround Tuesday style, even though today is technically Wednesday. The market was closed on Monday, so today is really only a Tuesday despite what it might say on your calendar, so stop going on about it will you. Like a bloody dog with a bone you are, let it rest, it's Tuesday. Right, the overnight grains closed lower in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion. Beans ended with losses of around 7 cents, with corn and wheat both falling in the region of 4-5 cents. Front month March corn is hovering precariously around the six dollar mark. There's more rain in the forecast for Brazil and Argentina than there was yesterday. It's also trending cooler in Argentina. Improved weather conditions there are likely to be of more benefit to beans heading into the reproductive stage than they will now be for corn. Fresh news is limited apart from that. The European debt crisis still looms large over the market, like an enormous immobile and irritating black cloud. Or Emile Heskey if you prefer. The dollar remains strong, which is a hindrance to US exports. Friday's delayed weekly sales figures will be scrutinised for signs of promise after last week's numbers came in pretty flat. Weekly shipments for soybeans are well behind year ago levels, whilst for wheat they persistently show clear signs of failing to meet the level required to hit the USDA's target of 25 MMT in 2011/12. Western Australia has just about finished bringing in an all-time high grain harvest, according to media reports. The USDA have just confirmed the sale of 120,000 MT of US corn to Egypt. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 5-7 cents lower, wheat down 3-4 cents and corn also 3-4 cents weaker. 2008 |
## 2674 19/01/12 -- The overnight grains are higher with beans leading the way up 10-12 cents, with corn and wheat both some 3-5 cents firmer. Crude oil is up more than a dollar. Macquarie Group have released their latest estimates for South American crop production. Argentina: Corn 25.6 MMT, Soybeans 49.0 MMT. Brazil: Corn 60.0 MMT, Soybeans 73.6 MMT. Maybe more evidence that last week's USDA numbers weren't as outrageously over the top as the bulls would like to make out? Beans are up on reports of Chinese buying ahead of their Lunar New Year celebrations starting Monday and lasting through all of next week. The USDA's weekly export sales report is delayed a day to tomorrow due to the MLK holiday on Monday. There's been a flurry of tender activity this last day or two after prices worked lower. South Korea have bought 230,000 MT of corn overnight, with 110,000 MT of that confirmed today as US origin. Japan has bought 185,000 MT of wheat in it's regular Thursday tender split between US, Canadian and Australian origin. The USDA have also today confirmed 154,700 MT of US corn sold to Mexico and 110,000 MT of soybeans to China. Bangladesh bought 60,000 MT Ukrainian wheat for Jan/Feb shipment this week, with UAE buying Black Sea and Kazakh wheat and Ukraine origin corn. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat. The IGC have upped their 2011/12 world wheat production estimate by 7 MMT to 690 MMT today, with ending stocks upped 4 MMT to 204 MMT. World corn production is also increased, by 8 MMT to 861 MMT with carryover coming in at 125 MMT, 2 MMT higher than previously. Strategie Grains are forecasting an EU-27 2012 soft wheat crop of 133.3 MMT, a 3% increase on last year. They also peg 2012/13 EU wheat ending stocks 20% up on this season to 15.8 MMT and world wheat ending stocks for next season at a record 211 MMT. Iran continues to wind up the west talking about a closure of the Strait of Hormuz if Iran is threatened seriously and somebody wants to tighten the noose. That's keeping oil prices steady. Greece is into a second day of talks with private credit holders ahead of the imminent arrival of EU/ECB and IMF inspectors (if the latter turn up) to see if they are doing all they said they were going to do to qualify for their next cash injection. News that the IMF is looking to to boost its resources in an effort to tackle the euro zone debt crisis seems to have provided a little boost. Where are they going to get the money from Mars? Rains are on the cards for Brazil and Argentina this weekend and early next week. Parts of Argentina could get as much as as much as 1.5 inches over the weekend, with more to come Monday/Tuesday. Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 8-10 cents, corn up 3-5 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents. 2008 |
## 2682 20/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed mixed with beans 3-5 cents weaker, and with corn and wheat trading a cent or two either side. Crude is down almost a dollar and a half sending it back below USD100/barrel. Weekly export sales from the USDA came in at a net 584,200 MT, towards the upper end of trade estimates. Shipments of 357,900 MT however once again fell short of the level required to hit the USDA's 2011/12 target. They've only beat that target twice in the past 15 weeks. Corn sales of 759,900 MT were in line with trade estimates of 500-850 TMT and included 132,200 MT for China. Soybean sales were 991,100 MT of which more than a third was China. Yesterday's reported Chinese business won't show up until next week. Chinese New Year celebrations will keep them out of the market next week. Some of this week's widely reported sales were likely a result of that. Widespread rains are expected in Argentina over the weekend and early part of next week, that may encourage a bit of profit-taking and/or spec selling heading into the weekend. It was only a matter of time, but some reports are already talking of excessive rain hampering harvest progress in Brazil. The IGC peg soybean production there at 71.8 MMT, and that in Argentina at 51 MMT which is interestingly a little higher than the USDA's scoffed at 50.5 MMT released last week. Beans have been the biggest gainer on the week so far, up 38 3/4 cents as opposed to corn which is up 6 1/2 cents and wheat, up 3 1/2 cents. With a good chance of decent weekend rains in Argentina then I guess we can expect beans to lead the way lower this afternoon. Informa are expected to release updated 2012 acreage forecasts mid session. They have a habit of being towards the high end with their estimates. Europe has gone a bit quiet this past few days, as this millstone of a problem has had the habit of doing over the past year or so. As we all know by now though a sudden volcanic eruption is possible at any time with this festering volcano. Greece, desperate for the next tranche of EU/ECB/IMF cash continues to hold a gun to it's creditors heads, saying it's 50% or nothing what do you want? As reported previously though it's actually 15% plus a probably worthless 35% time bomb of a bond to have ticking away on your balance sheet for Christ knows how long or nothing. Nothing is almost starting to look the more attractive of the two! It is only a matter of time before this baby blows IMHO, with the fan splattering brown smelly stuff all around the globe. If and when that happens then it will be like Italian captains deserting their ship as the funds scramble to get out. But, don't let that worry you, six dollar wheat and corn and twelve dollar beans are cheap as chips, everybody knows that so fill your boots son. Early calls for this afternoon's session: beans down 3-5 cents, wheat and corn mixed. 2008 |
## 2686 09/01/12 -- The overnight grains were higher, reversing Friday's losses in beans and doing even better than that for corn and wheat. Trade talk is that there's less rain in the forecasts for Argentina than there was. That's true, see the story below, although the difference isn't too striking to me. Argentina will receive very beneficial moisture during the next few days, producing near 90% coverage, is one story I read this morning. Yet moisture stress is continuing to cause irreversible yield loss for at least 75% of early-planted corn is another. It's up to the market to decide who to believe. There are plenty of people out there willing to suggest what the USDA may or may not say on Thursday. Some are anticipating a bullish report and others expecting a bearish slant. Only time will tell, personally I've given up trying to second-guess them. What I can tell you is that last season's January report was almost universally bullish, especially on corn which touched limit up that particular afternoon. In that report they cut US yields and production by more than anticipated, with yields coming in 1.5 bu/acre below their December number and lower than even the lowest trade estimate. The year before they went for the opposite tack and surprised the market pegging US 2009 production at a record 13.2 billion bushels, with a yield of 165.2bu/acre that beat the previous record by the proverbial country mile. March corn futures closed at just USD3.92 1/2 that day, down the at the time daily limit of 30 cents. In 2009 they pegged carryout for corn, beans and wheat significantly higher than had been expected. Corn closed limit down again that day, and in delivery and therefore limitless Jan beans fell 83 1/2 cents! So although we don't know which way the market is going to go on Thursday, history tells us that the potential is there for it to go very sharply one way or the other. Fresh news is thin on the ground ahead of the will it won't it rain and USDA stories. The USDA have announced the sale of 145,000 MT of 2011/12 soybeans to unknown this afternoon. Morocco is shopping for 190,000 MT of what will probably end up being French wheat. The euro is hovering around 1.27 against the US dollar, if it goes through 1.26 then it will be close to it's lowest since the summer of 2010 against the greenback. Spec money appears to be flooding back into the grains. Agrimoney report their net long in Chicago corn soared by nearly 44,000 lots to 192,500 contracts in the week to January 3. Will the weather in South America and the USDA reaffirm their actions? Early calls on this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 7-9 cents, beans up 9-10 cents, wheat up 8-12 cents. 2008 |
## 2692 10/01/12 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat around 2-3 cents weaker, beans down a fraction and corn up a fraction. Crude oil is two dollars firmer. The very latest weather forecasts continue to be poured over. Rains should cover 85-90% of Argentina during the next few days with amounts varying from a quarter of an inch to up to 3 inches in places. A new development today is an increased chance of moisture again in the middle of next week. South Korea's largest feed producer has bought two cargoes of US corn today, plus one of optional origin feed wheat from Glencore to add to yesterday's similar feed wheat purchase from Toepfer. The wheat was priced around USD60/tonne cheaper than the corn. They clearly seem to be diluting their corn requirements with much cheaper feed wheat. Conab today peg Brazil's soybean crop at 71.75 MMT, which although down on last season is actually an increase on where they were in December and the second largest crop in history. Corn production is however seen down from last month but up on a year ago to 59.2 MMT - still an all-time high despite the weather problems there. Celeres still forecast a 74.4 MMT Brazilian soybean crop and a corn harvest a smidgen under 62 MMT. Besides the Argentine rain issue the trade is nervously awaiting Thursday's USDA data. A bit like Christmas when you're a kid that can't come soon enough. Last month they had Brazilian soybeans at 75 MMT and Argy output at 52 MMT. For corn they had 61 MMT and 29 MMT. China says they imported 52.64 MMT soybeans in 2011, down 3.9% from the previous year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to up 2c, beans flat to down 1c, wheat down 2-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2695 11/01/12 -- The overnight grains ended lower as rains finally arrived for Argentina, bringing maybe slightly better totals than had been forecast. It looks like there's possibly a bit more in the forecast for tomorrow now too, here's a link to the latest GFS models with today's forecasts in the left hand column and yesterday's in the right hand column: It also seems that this front has ushered in cooler air behind it, so there's some respite from the hot temperatures that we've seen over the past couple of weeks. It seems far too early however to know how much good this rain event will bring, but it certainly can't do any harm. The Globex market finished with beans 12-13 cents lower, corn down 4-5 cents and wheat down 3-5 cents. All eyes now are on tomorrow's USDA report. The trade is expecting it to be a bit friendly for corn, with US 2011 production seen lower than last month and 2011/12 US ending stocks subsequently shrinking. Soybean output and stocks in the US are seen barely changed. All wheat acres may rise a little. Cuts for soybean and corn output in South America are also likely. That is what the market is banking on anyway. I will reserve judgement until tomorrow. Other news is pretty scant. South Korea are buying feed wheat again today, this time for delivery by April 1 at around USD63.50/tonne cheaper than US corn. The firm dollar and profit-taking ahead of tomorrow's reports mean that the opening calls are lower for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12 cents, corn and wheat 3-5 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2704 12/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed higher in anticipation of a bullish USDA report. It wasn't very friendly at all however. US ending stocks came in higher than expected for wheat, corn and soybeans. US 2011 production of corn and soybeans was raised and yields were also increased - by 0.5bpa in the case of corn when a 0.5bpa drop was expected. To top off the whole little lot US wheat plantings for the coming harvest were pegged a million acres higher than anticipated. On a world scale global 2011/12 wheat ending stocks were raised to 210 MMT, within 0.4 MMT of being the highest ever recorded. World corn ending stocks were increased by 0.9 MMT to 128.1 MMT, although for soybeans they were reduced by 1.1 MMT to 63.4 MMT. Wheat production in 2011 was raised slightly for Russia to 56.23 MMT and by 1.5 MMT for Kazakhstan to 22.5 MMT. For corn they dropped Argy production by 3 MMT to 26 MMT and left Brazil's unchanged at 61 MMT. Both of those are still a record! Argentina's export prospects were trimmed from 20 MMT to 18.5 MMT. Ukraine corn production for 2011 was raised by 1.5 MMT to 22.5 MMT. For soybeans Argentina's crop was dropped only 1.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, with Brazil's cut 1 MMT to 74 MMT. Argentina's exports were cut by 1 MMT, but Brazil's increased by 0.5 MMT. China's imports were held steady at 56.5 MT. In other news the USDA's weekly export sales for came in at 365,200 MT for wheat in 2011/12 plus a further 73,000 MT for 2012/12. Corn sales were 321,500 MT for 2011/12 and negative 23,000 MT for 2012/13. Soybean sales were 433,900 MT, all for 2011/12. Expectations on all three were for sales of 350-600,000 MT. Catching the eye for wheat was weekly shipments of just 196,200 MT - a paltry amount and the lowest since the first week of the marketing year 31 weeks ago. Needless to say that is well below the 465,000 MT level now needed to reach the USDA's export target of 25 MMT, which was inexplicably revised upwards from 24.5 MMT today. On top of all that news the USDA also announced the sale of 414,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. All in all we have a very bearish set of numbers for wheat and corn, and maybe modestly less so for soybeans. March corn closed at USD6.51 1/2 last night and has subsequently been trading around 30-35 cents lower than that in over the counter trading since these numbers came out. We now need to wait and see if we get a wholesale capitulation this afternoon or if consumers and our old buddies the funds decide that this is a buying opportunity. Early calls are all over the place from limit down to 15-20c lower on corn. Limit down to 15-20c lower on wheat and from 5-15c to 20-30c lower on beans. I'd expect corn to open 30-35c down in line with synthetic trade, with wheat down around 30c and beans 20-25c weaker. 2008 |
## 2712 23/01/12 -- The overnight grains are higher with beans up around 15 cents and corn & wheat some 6 cents firmer. Consequently it looks like we are going to start the week higher this afternoon for the sixth week in a row. Weekend rains in Argentina were not as good as hoped for, although rain is showing up on the radar right now and more is forecast for tomorrow and Wednesday. The trade appears to be thinking that for corn the damage is done and a crop of somewhere between 18 MMT (worst case scenario) and 22 MMT (best case scenario) is on the cards. For beans there is maybe still a chance of things turning around a little, with 47-52 MMT the likely range. Crude oil is up as tensions mount between Iran and the West. The BBC report that the EU has placed an immediate ban on all new oil contracts with Iran. Traders are still nervous over the European situation, which may erupt again at any moment. Greece failed to get a consensus agreement with private debt holders over the weekend. Italy needs to do something about its mighty EUR334 billion of debt maturing this year, starting with EUR26 billion due on Feb 1st. Corn currently stands around 25 cents up from the post-USDA report lows, with beans up over 40 cents and wheat up almost 23 cents. Ukraine crop conditions appear to have improved, but a quarter of their winter sown crops are still likely to need replanting in the spring. Domestic Russian wheat prices are on the up, according to media reports. They are unlikely to be as aggressive as they have been in the second half of the 2011/12 season. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat up 5-7 cents, beans up 12-15 cents. The bulls may be willing to see exactly what happens if the hit the accelerator this afternoon I feel. 2008 |
## 2715 24/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed lower, partially reversing yesterday's gains, with beans around 7 cents weaker nearby, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat 3-5 cents weaker. Crude is down 72 cents at USD98.86/barrel. Around two thirds to three quarters of Argentina got rains of 0.25 to 0.75 inches yesterday, there has apparently been more overnight and there's a bit more on the radar for this afternoon and tomorrow. After that we are looking at the first few days of Feb for the next forecast rain event. The FAO now estimate Argentina’s 2012 corn crop at 21.4 MMT. I think that by now we all lost count of the number of times that the market has shown signs of optimism that a resolution was in sight for the European debt problems. The latest wave of bullishness on Europe now seems to be having it's hopes dashed on the cruel rocks of fate once more as Greece and it's debtors reach another impasse. If you don't accept what's on the table then you won't get anything, warns Greece. Has it not occurred to them that that may be exactly what some people want? Certainly those insured against a Greek default, but not against a voluntary Greek haircut. S&P's are now warning that it may downgrade Greece to selective default as the EU/ECB and IMF ponder whether to release the next tranche of bailout cash. India says that it's wheat harvest, which should begin in two months time, will surpass last season's 85.9 MMT total by an unspecified amount. China is out of action this week for their Lunar New Year celebrations. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 6-8 cents, corn down 2-3 cents, wheat down 3-4 cents. 2008 |
## 2726 25/01/12 -- The overnight grains were mixed with beans 1 3/4 down to 1 1/2 up, corn was 3 1/2 up to 1 3/4 down and wheat mostly around 2-4 cents firmer. Crude is down half a dollar or so. Argentina got more rain overnight but will now have to wait until next week for it's next shot of moisture. Cropcast have come out with a pretty pessimistic number putting the soybean crop at 45 MMT. The rally that started a week ago has seen corn put on 40 cents, wheat 44 cents and beans 34 1/2 cents, so maybe there's a bit of consolidation due? When all said and done, based on the average of all the analysts listed below, are things really all that bad? A record and within half a million tonnes of record corn crop for Brazil and Argentina. Plus a second and joint second record soybean crop. The Russian news isn't anything more than a reminder of what we knew already, that they are likely to slow down on exports now we are into 2012. Portugal’s borrowing costs have risen to fresh euro-era highs today. Greece is still trying to play hardball despite only holding Jack high in it's hand. European leaders meet for a summit on Monday without a deal on the table once again. The UK is heading for, or indeed may already be in, another recession. But don't let those things worry you right now, the only way is up. The market needs to find a price level that will encourage farmers to sell, I read with a wry smile. How about dropping like a stone when Europe goes tits up, that might encourage a few sellers out of the woodwork! Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, beans flat to 2 cents lower. 2008 |
## 2744 04/01/12 -- The overnight grains closed mostly lower with beans and wheat down around 2-3 cents and corn up one to down three. Crude oil is also lower. Beans have added more than a dollar a bushel, or 11%, since the middle of December. Corn has put on almost 13% and CBOT wheat posting gains in excess of 12% during the same timeframe. Fundamental reasons for the latter are particularly difficult to find. Some reports filtering through today suggest a wetter outlook for South America next week. That should be sufficient to encourage some profit-taking after what has been 12 consecutive sessions of almost constant rises. European jitters are also back on the table. The USDA are out next week with their revised supply and demand estimates. Doubtless they will reduce their Argy corn production number from the existing 29 MMT, closer to the 24-25 MMT level that the trade already has factored in. Even so that would still be a record crop. For Brazilian corn the USDA are currently at 61 MMT and the trade is estimating more like 59 MMT. That would also still be a record. For beans they are currently saying 75 MMT for Brazil and 52 MMT for Argentina. The trade is thinking more like 72 MMT and 49 MMT respectively. Both would be the second highest on record. Not surprising then that this rally is being seen as a selling opportunity by some producers who'd spent September through to mid-December fretting as the watched prices steadily decline. Next month will see the USDA's annual outlook forum, at which we get the first tentative clues on their ideas on US farmers' spring planting intentions. Corn sowings are already predicted to be the highest since WWII. Soybean and wheat plantings are also seen higher as land comes out of the US Conservation Reserve Program. US ethanol output meanwhile has been setting a succession of record weekly production levels at the end of 2011 as blenders there milked the tax credit for all it was worth. It will be interesting to see the January data now that they no longer have that particular benefit. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to up 1 cent, wheat down 2-3 cents, beans down 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2749 05/01/12 -- The overnight grains were lower with beans around 10-12 cents easier, wheat down 7-8 cents and corn down 6-7 cents. Crude is down and the dollar is higher, both negative for grains today. At the moment we have a tug of war between the European debt crisis and drought in some parts of South America. Today it seems to be the ongoing problems in Europe that are winning. The euro has hit a fresh 15-month low against the dollar today as Greece hints that it may default on it's debt and French bond yields are up on a month ago. Rain is in the forecast for Argentina, but as ever it always seems to be 7-10 days from now that it's due to arrive, never tomorrow. Allendale have cut their Argy soybean crop estimate to 49 MMT, in line with the rest of the trade. The USDA said 52 MMT last month but seem certain to reduce that estimate next week. Allendale left their Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged. For corn they now predict Argy production 5 MMT below the USDA at 24 MMT, and for Brazil they cut the crop by half a million to 60.5 MMT. Both of those would still be record crops. In the US, Allendale see winter wheat plantings at 2.2 million higher than the USDA at 42.85 million acres. They also say that second quarter usage was the lowest in their records dating back to 1975. Farm Futures peg the 2012 US corn planted acreage at 93.6 million, with soybeans at 74.9 million and all wheat at 59.2 million. For corn that's 1.7 million, or 2%, up on last year. For beans it's a 0.1 million drop and for wheat it's a 4.8 million, or 9%, rise on last year. Clearly the South American story is the only thing propping this market up. We've risen a fair way since the middle of December so it looks like some consolidation is overdue today. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-7 cents, beans down 8-10 cents, wheat down 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 2757 06/01/12 -- The overnight grains finished with wheat and soybeans around 6-7 cents higher and corn up 4-5 cents. Crude oil is up around half a dollar. It looks like we are in for a modest correction from last night's losses with Argy weather forecasts looking a little drier than yesterday. Heat is set to dominate this weekend. Strong US jobs numbers today should also support. Figures just out show that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in December, beating expectations. The data also says that the unemployment rate fell to 8.5% in December, the lowest level in nearly 3 years. The market was expecting 155,000 jobs added and unemployment at 8.5%. It's not all good news however. The USDA reported weekly export sales for corn, beans and wheat were all disappointing. Wheat sales of 138,600 MT for the 2011/12 marketing year were down 68 percent from the previous week, down 64 percent on the 4-week average and a marketing-year low. There was also a small 29,500 MT sale for delivery in 2012/13. That fell well short of the 300-500,000 MT that the trade was expecting. Corn sales of 299,500 MT for 2011/12 and 6,500 MT for delivery in 2012/13 just about fell within the range of 300-600,000 MT that the trade anticipated. Soybean sales of 281,300 MT for the 2011/12 were below trade ideas of 400-600,000 MT. Wheat shipments of 425,800 MT again failed to meet the level required to hit the USDA's overall marketing year target. Egypt has bought two cargoes of French wheat, one of Ukraine wheat and one of Russian/Kazakh origin. Tunisia has bought 50,000 MT of what will probably be French milling wheat. The Argy government has announced new less restrictive measures will apply to wheat exports from the end of this month, and that the same rules should be introduced for corn a month down the line. The Eurozone juggernaut rumbles on out of control with yields on Spanish and Italian bonds back on the rise and Hungary getting another sovereign debt downgrade. Informa are out with their latest S&D numbers mid-session ahead of the USDA next Thursday. This could be an interesting session ahead of the weekend. On the week so far wheat is down sharply, corn down a tad and beans up a little. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn 4-5 cents higher, beans and wheat 6-8 cents higher. 2008 |
## 2767 29/12/11 -- The overnight grains were mostly lower with beans around 8-10 cents easier, wheat down 3-4 cents and corn a half higher on old crop to 1 1/2 lower on new crop. Crude oil is slightly firmer and the US dollar is also steadier. The market got a little reminder that far from being out of the woods, Europe is still lost somewhere in the thick of it. Italy managed to auction off EUR7 billion of three-year and 10-year bonds but still had to pay almost 7% to do so. That saw the euro slump to its lowest in more than 15 months against the dollar. The South American weather forecasts offer some encouragement a week from now, but not much in the way of precipitation prior to that. Tomorrow is first notice day on Jan CBOT soy complex contracts, which means that anyone still long on the front month risks taking delivery on Friday. If they don't want to do that then they need to exit their position today. Weekly export sales data from the USDA is delayed until tomorrow due to Monday's holiday. After eight sessions higher, it could be time for a little money to be taken off the table this afternoon prior to year-end. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 8-10 cents lower, wheat down 2-4 cents, corn flat to 1 cent higher. Apart from that de do do do, de da da da is all I've got to say to you. 2008 |
## 2779 19/12/11 -- The overnight grains posted decent gains to build on Friday night's advances with beans up 15-17 cents, corn 10-12 cents higher and wheat adding 8-10 cents. Crude oil is around half a dollar firmer, although it's still around USD6/barrel down on a week ago. The market seems to be buying into the building weather story in South America, even though there is rain in the forecast for most of the troubled areas a week from now. European woes appear to have been put on the back burner for now. Short-covering, profit-taking and year-end book squaring all look likely to feature this week. There's a near record fund short on CBOT wheat and the smallest fund long on corn for 17 months. Indeed, non-commercial investors have cut their corn length from over 350,000 contracts back in February to just 50,000 lots as of last Tuesday, according to There has been some talk over what the implications may be, if any, of the death of North Korea's Kim Jong-il. Unrest and rising tensions in the region? Or maybe they'd like to forge a closer relationship with the west, and buy some grain? Probably neither. Reports that they test-fired a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan this morning initially raised a few eyebrows but is now being played down as a routine event and of no significance. A US winter storm will today see rain and snow become steadier and heavier this morning across northern Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas, which will be beneficial for winter wheat in the region. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 15 to 20 cents, corn up 10 to 15 cents, and wheat up 5 to 10 cents. 2008 |
## 2782 20/12/11 -- The overnight Globex session saw grains extend recent gains with beans around 5 cents higher, corn up 2-3 cents and wheat adding 3-6 cents. Crude oil is a couple of dollars higher and the US dollar a bit weaker, both adding a bit of support. South American weather concerns are what has seen corn add 22 cents and beans 37 cents since the middle of last week. Other than that and the poor state of Ukraine's winter wheat crop there isn't much other bullish news on the table. A bit like the credit card bill, the market seems to be thinking that it will re-assess and worry about Europe in the new year. Meanwhile there's profits to be banked and positions to be squared ahead of the year-end. The Russian Ministry have confirmed a clean weight grain harvest of 92 MMT, which they say will allow them to export 25 MMT this season. Of that 15 MMT has already been shipped by the end of November and a further 2.5 MMT is expected to go this month. India's Food Secretary says that the country will probably bring in a wheat crop in excess of last season's record 85.93 MMT early in 2012. Harvesting of that will begin in three months time. In the US, weather conditions have grown progressively wetter in the southern Great Plains the past 6 weeks, easing drought in hard red winter wheat, say Martell Crop Projections. The subtropical jet stream has been unusually strong carving out a pronounced trough over the Southwest United States. Waves of showers keep spinning out of the trough into the Southern Great Plains. The GFS model indicates the persistent trough which has been dominant for over 3 weeks may eventually lift out of the southern United States after Christmas. Between now and then, there will more chances for beneficial rainfall in hard red winter wheat, they add. Conflicting weather forecasts for Argentina this afternoon have the GFS model showing 0.5 to 1.25 inch rains between now and the end of the week, whilst the European model is still calling things relatively dry. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 4-6 cents, corn up 2-3 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2787 21/12/11 -- The overnight grains posted modest losses, reversing three to four days of gains with beans down 6-8 cents, corn falling 3-4 cents and wheat down 4-6 cents. Crude oil is steady, although little changed and the US dollar is likewise. Rain is in the forecast tonight and tomorrow for Argentina, easing traders concerns there, although after tomorrow it's back to dry if at least a little cooler. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says that the current la Nina episode is near it's peak and will gradually decline in Q1 of 2012. Chinese customs data shows Brazil leapfrogging the US as the biggest supplier of soybeans so far in 2011. To the end of November China imported 19.8 MMT of Brazilian beans compared to 18.75 MMT from America. US shipments to China in November were 2.46 MMT, down 35% on year ago levels. There's just a week and a half left to go before the US ethanol blenders' tax credit gets removed. Ethanol producers margins have already taken a sharp cut in recent weeks and they're about to have another 45 cents/gallon taken off them. US hard red winter wheat conditions should have improved from the 13% poor-very poor on November 27, the last report from the USDA, aided by a decent shot of moisture since then. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 6-8 cents, corn down 3-4 cents, wheat down 4-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2788 22/12/11 -- The overnight grains were little changed in a dull lifeless session with beans around 2 cents firmer, corn mixed and wheat unchanged to slightly lower. Crude oil and the dollar are also barely changed. There was some overnight rain for Argentina, with more expected today, although the amounts involved aren't huge. Bangladesh has bought Ukraine wheat, Japan has booked some Australian wheat and Jordan has bought 100,000 MT of wheat of unspecified origin - most likely from the Black Sea. The USDA's weekly export sales and shipments were bullish for corn and soybeans and neutral to slightly negative for wheat. Fresh news is thin on the ground. After several days of moving higher we may be in for a small consolidation day, but big moves either way today/tomorrow look unlikely. Chicago operates normal trading hours tomorrow, is closed Monday and re-opens again Tuesday afternoon. Early calls for this afternoon: beans up 2-4 cents, corn up 1-3 cents, wheat mixed. 2008 |
## 2800 12/12/11 -- The overnight markets continue to drift lower with beans down around 6 cents, corn 6-7 cents weaker and wheat down 4-6 cents. Crude is a dollar or so lower as the markets digest Friday's news out of Europe. Or should that be Europes as Sarkozy now says that there are two of them. How much real substance is behind Friday's deal and what it changes for the crisis that is ongoing now is what the market is pondering. It doesn't seem to be liking the conclusions that it's coming up with as the euro is back under pressure again today. Sarkozy says that the loss of France’s AAA credit rating wouldn’t be insurmountable, according to the Le Monde newspaper. That's lucky, because that's exactly what is likely to happen. Sarkozy's potential rival in next spring's elections, Francois Hollande, is already saying that he'd like to renegotiate Friday's deal before the ink's dry. Fresh fundamental grain news is limited. Parts of Brazil are set to remain dry, but there's some decent moisture in the forecast this week for many other areas. Australia's bumper wheat harvest continues to be hampered by rain. Another abundant year of feed wheat coming out of their is seen as bearish for US corn demand going into 2012. Brazil is expected to increase corn plantings 11% for the 2012 harvest to a record 8.77 million hectares. US wheat remains too expensive to compete with abundant supplies priced more keenly elsewhere around the world. The main thing supporting CBOT wheat right now is the sizable short that funds have already amassed and lack of producer selling. Funds have also now turned bearish on beans and are reducing their corn length on an almost daily basis. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn 5-7 cents lower, wheat down 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2808 13/12/11 -- The overnight grains were mostly firmer with wheat up 3-5 cents, and corn & beans generally around 2-3 cents higher. When the Globex market closed crude oil was up around half a dollar. Since then it's jumped to almost USD3 higher on unconfirmed reports that the Straits of Hormuz is to close for routine military training by Iran. European jitters remain with the ratings agencies likely to show more urgency in downgrading any one of an assortment of eurozone countries than the individuals themselves have displayed at sorting out their debt problems. I wonder how many downgrades there will be before they meet again in March? Meanwhile we appear to be getting our first little South American weather scare of the season. Growing conditions have become increasingly stressful in southern South America the past 2-3 weeks with intense drying. The crop area affected by emerging drought includes Argentina’s eastern grain belt in Buenos Aires, Entre Rios and Santa Fe. La Nina is the suspected culprit. Also becoming too dry are Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, said Martell Crop Projections yesterday. Brazilian analysts AgRural have lowered their Brazilian soybean production estimate by half a million tonnes to 73.1 MMT, although that's still better than Conab's 71.3 MMT number released late last week. China says that it imported 5.7 MMT of soybeans last month, almost 50% more than in October. Demand from there should be robust over the next 40 days in the run-up to the Lunar New Year celebrations on January 23rd. Egypt has bought 180,000 MT of wheat from a combination of France, Russia and Argentina. US wheat remains too expensive to be even offered. However the large fund short in CBOT wheat should continue to offer support. Revised pre-opening calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 4-6 cents, corn up 2-4 cents, beans up 3-5 cents. 2008 |
## 2841 08/12/11 -- The overnight grains closed with beans a couple of cents lower, corn down 2-3 cents and wheat 4-6 cents easier. Crude is half a dollar firmer and ethanol prices are lower. Reports coming out of the US suggest that ethanol producers margins have been cut sharply this week, even whilst the tax credit still in place. Weekly ethanol production was a record at 954,000 barrels/day last week, with stocks rising to 17.9 million gallons as producers take one last bite of the tax credit cherry. The USDA pegged weekly wheat export sales in line with expectations and corn & beans better than anticipated in this afternoon's report. China was a featured buyer of corn as well as taking their usual lion's share of the beans. Wheat shipments were better than of late, but still nevertheless fell short of the pace needed to hit the USDA's export target for the eighth week in nine. That adds more weight to the case for them trimming their projected 2011/12 US wheat sales from the existing 26 MMT target. The FAO came out with a record world wheat crop projection of 694.8 MMT, 10 MMT above the previous all time high set in 2009 and 11.5 MMT more than the USDA said in November. In amongst that was a Russian crop of 58 MMT (USDA - 56 MMT), a Kazakh crop of 24 MMT (USDA - 21 MMT) and an EU-27 wheat harvest of 139.2 MMT (USDA - 137.5 MMT). Conab cut their forecast for Brazilian soybean production next year to 71.3 MMT from its November estimate of 73.0 MMT and lower than the record 75.3 MMT produced in the 2011. The reduction is partly due to a shift to increased corn plantings. They now peg the Brazilian corn crop at 60.32 MMT compared to a range of 58.43 to 59.46 last month and 57.51 MMT in 2010-11. The market remains nervous ahead of the conclusion to the EU leaders summit and ahead of the USDA's WASDE report tomorrow. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn flat to 2 cents lower, beans down 1-3 cents, wheat down 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 2853 28/11/11 -- The overnight market is higher with beans up 14-16 cents, and wheat & corn around 10-12 cents firmer. Crude is up the best part of three dollars, and has traded over USD100/barrel although it seems to be having trouble holding above resistance at that level. European debt fears appear eased by unconfirmed suggestions that Italy is to get a cheap (compared to the rates it has been paying) loan from the IMF. At the end of the day though it's still another loan on top of the ones it is already struggling to repay. An interesting and in-depth article on Bloomberg today suggests that a Euro break-up is now being talked about as probable rather than possible as markets continue to move faster than politicians - I couldn't have put it better myself. Is this a killer buying opportunity or just another false dawn. There's certainly been enough of the latter around in the past six months to recognise what they look like, and they look just like today to me. The excellent Benson Quinn boys comment that some of the Ag indices around only allow month end withdrawals. With investor confidence in grains shot to pieces there may be some big selling to come on Dec 1st, they highlight. And there's a turnaround Tuesday to get past first. Only 75% of Ukraine's autumn sown crops have emerged, with 32% of crops in weak/thinned condition, say the Ministry there. Rains continue to hinder the harvest in Australia, particularly in SA, Victoria and NSW. Those are the stories that the bulls are hanging their hats on. There's always the option of re-sowing failed winter crops in the spring in Ukraine, although yields would be expected to be lower. For Australia, quality may be an issue, but quantity probably won't be however. The IGC last week said that Russia's 2011/12 wheat crop was 58 MMT, 2 MMT higher than the USDA. They also pegged wheat exports at 20 MMT, which is 1 MMT more than our mates in Washington reckon. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 12-15 cents, wheat up 8-10 cents, corn 10-12 cents. 2008 |
## 2859 29/11/11 -- The overnight grains are mixed heading into the close of Globex trading having traded on both sides in a choppy session. Beans are 3-4 cents higher, wheat is 2-3 cents higher and corn a cent or so either side. Crude is slightly firmer and the US dollar a tad weaker. Grains are attempting to rebound from the lows of the year set last week, although there's still plenty of bearish outside news about. European leaders are meeting in Brussels and may not be able to come up with last month's promised EUR1 trillion bailout fund. Greece are said to be close to needed another handout and Italy has again had to pay in excess of 7% at a bond auction today. American Airlines' parent company has just filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Argentina is expected to fee up a ruck of old crop wheat for export this week now that new crop harvesting is well underway. They've been even cheaper sellers than Black Sea wheat of late. Russia's harvest is almost over and looks likely to have come in a bit higher than current USDA estimates. Ukraine's exports are picking up, they've shipped more than 2 MMT of grain out this month bringing the total marketing year-to-date exports to 6.8 MMT, more than 50% up on a year ago. Wheat accounts for 2.14 MMT of that total and corn 2.76 MMT. There's a further 1.2 MMT of grain sitting portside waiting to be shipped, according to the Ministry. Australia's crops have been hit by late rains, reducing quality there once again. It looks like there will be no shortage of feed wheat Down Under in 2011/12, to add to the already weighty carry-in stocks left over from last season. Rapeseed yields are said to be pretty decent this year, and depressed by falling wheat prices Australian farmers are said to be turning to OSR sales to generate their cashflow requirements. Sound familiar? South America hasn't thrown up any serious weather worries yet. Martell Crop Projections say: There are no major problems in Brazil corn and soybeans, just yet. We are keeping an eye on Mato Grosso, where heat is becoming detrimental, and South Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul where drought is a growing concern. Very good conditions continue in Parana, the top Brazil corn state and second leading soybean producer. Early planting of corn this spring means that crop development is more advanced than usual. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 3-5 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents, corn steady to mixed. 2008 |
## 2870 01/12/11 -- The overnight markets closed firmer with wheat mostly 4-6 cents higher, corn up 3-4 cents and beans 8-10 cents better. The market is searching for direction, wondering exactly how helpful to the global economy will yesterday's central bank announcement really be. Farmer selling interest at these levels is light, even though in historic terms prices are still high. Despite corn and wheat at or below USD6/bushel export demand hasn't exactly been snapping grains up. Today's USDA weekly export sales came in at just 280,600 MT for corn for the 2011/12 marketing year, plus a further 71,600 MT for delivery in 2012/13. Trade estimates were for sales of 350-450 TMT. Wheat sales totalled 503,000 MT, in line with trade estimates. Weekly shipments were poor yet again though at just 302,000 MT, way below what is needed to hit the USDA's 2011/12 goal of 26 MMT. Soybean sales were a little below trade estimates of 550-850 TMT at 489,600 MT. Domestic US demand for corn remains strong courtesy of the ethanol sector, but once the blenders' tax credit expires that could come down along with the Christmas decorations in January. Spain and France managed to auction off debt at better rates than the market feared. European is still only one or two steps away from the abyss though IMHO. Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan still have plenty of grain to market, with the first two mentioned rattling through exports at a strong pace. The landlocked latter will be eager to take advantage of any easing up by Russia to use their Black Sea ports to reach export homes in Europe and North Africa. South American weather remains non-threatening for the time being, with record or near record production on the cards for corn and soybeans. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat up 5-7 cents, soybeans up 8-10 cents. 2008 |
## 2878 21/11/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with beans around 9-10 cents weaker, corn down 6-7 cents and wheat 5-7 cents lower. Crude oil is around a dollar weaker and more than six below last week's high. It's another risk off day with corn approaching the six dollars mark. European stocks are all down in the region of 2-2.5% with the US debt ceiling back on the agenda along with Moody's warning France on it's AAA credit rating and Hungary requesting financial assistance from the IMF/EU. China's Vice Premier Wang is warning that the global economic outlook remains grim. It's unusual for a Chinese official to be so candid. Maybe the word grim was dumbed down for the public compared to what he really foresees? US competitiveness is also under question. Egypt stuck with Black Sea wheat again over the weekend. Once more US wheat didn't get offered. Meanwhile last week's export sales for corn were a disaster and news today that of the 3.8 MMT of soybeans China imported in October only 0.5 MMT came from the US is hardly inspiring either. Syria is re-tendering for 100,000 MT of wheat having pulled last week's tender saying that prices were too high. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 8-10 cents, corn down 5-7 cents, wheat down 6-8 cents. 2008 |
## 2885 22/11/11 -- The Globex grains were mostly a little higher with beans and wheat posting gains of around 1-2 cents and corn flat. Hardly what you would call a major reversal after last night's steep losses, and technically not a lot of help to the bulls. Crude is up a bit, but well off early highs and global stock markets have also turned from green to red. The market still has a bad case of the jitters and probably can't wait to take a day off for Thanksgiving on Thursday. US economic growth has been revised down for Q3. Spain had to cough up a yield more than double what it was just last month in a three month debt auction and is now paying higher rates than Greece or Portugal. The hole in MF Global's customer accounts is now pegged at USD1.2 billion, says the FT. That's almost a quarter of the client funds it was supposed to keep separate from it's own. Ukraine has harvested a record 55.4 MMT grain crop and has stepped up it's export activities considerably in the past few weeks. Russia continues to ship grain like there's no tomorrow as prices fall, concerned that the government is going to pull the plug sometime in the spring. They can't call time on exports soon enough for Kazakhstan who have a record grain crop of their own to dispose of and would very much like to have access to North Africa and the West via Russian ports on the Black Sea. The wheat harvest in Australia is now in full swing, and despite exporting a record volume of the grain in the marketing year 2010/11 just ended in September, they still have plenty of carryover from last season's record crop to add to another bumper production year. US wheat prices remain uncompetitive, despite recent falls, and the question now is not really if US exports will miss the USDA target but by how much. South American weather doesn't look too threatening yet, can we actually go a who growing season without a weather scare there? It's early days yet, in Argentina soybean plantings are around halfway through with corn about 75% done. We're looking at CBOT soybean and meal prices at their lowest since October 2010 and corn & wheat very close to their lows of the year. Is this a buying opportunity or time to throw in the towel? I have to confess that at this stage I'm not sure and could be persuaded to join either camp relatively easily. There's no denying though that the momentum is downwards for the time being. I think I'd rather wait for the corner to be turned than predict what's around it right now. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 1-3 cents, corn & wheat mixed, 2 cents firmer to 2 cents weaker. 2008 |
## 2900 25/11/11 -- The overnight grains were lower with beans ending with losses of around 13-14 cents, corn down 3-5 cents and wheat falling in the region of 3-6 cents. Crude oil is almost a dollar easier and the US dollar is firmer in the usual flight to safety manner. The eurozone debt crisis continues on it's merry way to oblivion. Italy sold off USD8 billion of six month bills with yields at 6.5%, almost double the rate it paid a month ago. Yields on 2-year bonds are now well past the supposedly unsustainable 7% mark at 7.8% and rising. Grains have taken a spanking all week and look set to start the day with another beating when Chicago opens this afternoon. Australia has more wheat than you can shake an excrement smeared stick at, with stocks of 9 MMT as of October 1st, more than 50% higher than a year ago meaning that it's still sitting on around a third of last season's record crop. It's now in the middle of harvesting another 26-27 MMT crop with yields better than expected in places, and as expected in others. Quality seems to be below par and there could be some weather damage again east SA, Victoria & NSW, my buddy Corey over there tells me. Despite remaining aggressive sellers ending stocks are still likely to be above 8 MMT at the end of the new season, the IGC said yesterday. Ukraine's grain harvest now stands at 56 MMT with just 8% of the nation's corn left to cut. They're likely to end up with a corn crop of around 22 MMT in bunker weight, of which they'll be looking to export 10-12 MMT compared to 5 MMT last season. That will compete head-to-head with US corn and Ozzie feed wheat into Asia. Chicago wheat hasn't been this low since news of the Russian drought was all over the media in July 2010. Beans are knock, knock, knocking on eleven's door as one wag put it on Twitter this morning, we haven't been down there since October 2010. Corn is at it's lowest levels of the year. Funds/investors are piling out of the grains so the market can only go one way as long as this exodus continues. That's all you need to know. US weekly export sales for wheat were better than the expected 300 to 450 TMT at 614,500 MT. Sales aren't exports until they been shipped though, and shipments failed to hit the 477 TMT needed to match the USDA's export target for the sixth week in seven coming in at 362,600 MT. Corn sales fell below expectations for the third week in a row at 312,000 MT for 2011/2012 and 38,000 MT for delivery in 2012/2013. Weekly shipments of 973,900 MT were however a marketing year high. Soybean sales and shipments were robust at 921,600 MT and 991,700 MT respectively. China accounted for more than 80% of those exports. You have to wonder therefore just how sharply US shipments will drop off once South America starts harvesting in the New Year. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session see beans down 13-15 cents, corn down 3-5 cents and wheat down 4-6 cents. 2008 |
## 2908 14/11/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with beans 8-10 cents firmer and the front end months flat to 2 cents higher on corn and wheat. Crude is weaker and the dollar firmer, which may add a bit of negative sentiment this afternoon. Italy managed to auction off EUR3 billion of five year bonds, albeit at a 14-year high rate of 6.29 percent. The market will now be looking to see how Spain fares in it's auction of 10-year bonds on Thursday. Strength in beans maybe came from the fact that they've fallen more substantially than wheat and corn of late. In the past month beans are down more than a dollar a bushel whereas wheat and corn are barely changed. Another supportive factor is Cofco saying that China will have an import requirement for 58.5 MMT of beans in 2011/12, 2 MMT more than the USDA's current estimate. Some analysts think that 60-61 MMT might even be on the cards. Less helpful however is news that the October NOPA soybean crush came in at 141.2 million bushels, up 30.9 million from September, but 3.8 million down on expectations of 145 million bushels. This was also down 7% on last year. Vietnam has bought Indian corn, others in the region are buying Ukraine origin corn. Asia is also buying Australian feed wheat to replace US corn in the ration. Maybe we will therefore start to see US corn exports slip a little before too long? US wheat exports meanwhile already are slipping as world stocks return to buoyant levels and there are other more willing sellers around the globe. Following the recent news of UK wheat sales to the US, and their spectacular failure to even feature in any of the Egyptian wheat tenders over the past few months then there could be some further downside for US wheat and corn? Reuters quote the Russian Hydrometcentre as saying weather conditions are highly favourable and the state of winter crops (there) are very good. Things don't look so rosy in Ukraine however where things have been much drier since winter grains were sown. Exports of this season's bumper grain crop are finally starting to pick up now that duties have been removed though and have now overtaken last season's levels by 8% at 5.5 MMT. Corn harvesting in Ukraine is 83% done producing a crop of just over 18 MMT to date, suggesting final output of close to 22 MMT. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn and wheat flat to up 2 cents, soybeans 8-10 cents firmer. We may open a bit firmer but I'll go for wheat and corn to be red by the time we close tonight though. 2008 |
## 2915 15/11/11 -- The Globex grains were mostly firmer with soybeans leading the way and again looking like being the strongest leg of the complex for the third session in a row this afternoon. Beans closed around 14-15 cents firmer overnight, with corn up 2-4 cents and wheat up one to down one on the nearbys. Last night's strong export inspections for beans lent weight to ideas that demand remains strong, particularly from China who may have been buying on this most recent dip. At least that's the theory. The Eurozone millstone of debt looks like ensuring that things don't get too carried away this afternoon though. Yields on Italian, Spanish and French bonds are back up today, the latter two to record differentials versus Germany. Europe is of course China's biggest export home, casting doubt even on it's considerable ability to continue to maintain growth if and when the good ship Eurozone sinks. Whilst Asia is still buying corn, it is watering down it's requirements with considerably cheaper feed wheat purchases. Ukraine has stepped up it's export efforts, with ports there now said to be operating at close to maximum capacity now that duties have been lifted and the corn harvest is winding down. Wheat has fallen for four sessions in a row, declining 41 1/2 cents in that time, so maybe a modest rebound is due today? Even so US prices are still too dear for many buyers on the global market. Corn has also fallen for the past four sessions, although by a more modest 26 1/2 cents, which again means we look set to see something of a minor correction this afternoon. European stocks are lower and US markets are expected to trade likewise. Gold is down along with crude oil and the dollar is firmer, so if the grains are going to rally today then they look like having to go it alone as there isn't much outside help coming their way from that lot. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOt session: corn up 2-4 cents, beans up 14-16 cents, wheat flat to 2 cents firmer. 2008 |
## 2927 17/11/11 -- The Globex grains were mostly lower with wheat down 3-5 cents, corn down 4-6 cents and beans 3-4 cents weaker. Having convincingly broke through the USD100/barrel mark yesterday WTI crude is now in danger of falling back below it, currently down USD1.67/barrel at USD100.92/barrel. Right at this moment beans are the strongest leg of the three and wheat the weakest. Beans will be supported by news from the USDA confirming private exporters selling 420,000 MT of US soybeans to China. That would appear to be the Sinograin business reported yesterday. The USDA also reported weekly export sales for beans of 746,100 for 2011/12 plus a further small quantity for 2012/13, above the 500-700 TMT expected. Corn sales were disappointing at 208,900 MT versus the 350-600 TMT anticipated. Wheat sales were also a let down at 317,100 MT for 2011/12. Wheat shipments are continue to lag. We are 24 weeks into the 2011/12 marketing year and cumulative shipments are at 12.6 MMT, meaning that the US need to export at the rate of 478,500 MT/week for the rest of the season to hit the USDA's 26 MMT target. They have now failed to match that total in five of the last six weeks. Competition in the world marketplace is hotting up, with Algeria surprising by placing a 500,000 MT wheat order with South America rather than it's normal preferred supplier - France. Japan also turned it's back on America to buy corn from Ukraine yesterday. Grain shipments from the latter are now starting to accelerate after a slow start, thanks to the recent removal of export duties. The 2011 Agriculture Census released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today says that wheat production there last season may in fact have been a stunning 27.9 MMT, a 28% increase on 2009/10 and 1.6 MMT higher than ABARES previously stated. Euro nervousness is spreading with yields on Spanish 10-year bonds now almost 7 percent. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 4-6 cents, wheat down 3-5 cents, beans down 2-3 cents. 2008 |
## 2951 10/11/11 -- The overnight grains were mostly a little steadier with wheat and beans up 1-2 cents and corn 2-4 cents firmer. Crude is up USD1.89 at USD97.63/barrel. Weekly export sales from the USDA are reported as 251,900 MT for corn, much lower than the 550-750,000 MT expected. Wheat sales are also low at 298,400 MT versus trade expectations of 350-450,000 MT. Soybean sales were a bit better than anticipated at a combined 606,800 MT. These are the correct numbers according to the USDA website. If you see any others getting bandied about it seems that Dow Jones are mistakenly reporting last week's export sales as this week's numbers! Wheat is being supported by corn, maybe neither will be too popular this afternoon after those disappointing export figures. US wheat is faced with a wall of export competition much of which wasn't there last season. Yesterday's export estimates for Russia and Australia were probably too low. The former will detract from US wheat sales and the latter may negatively impact upon US corn sales. To highlight the point Egypt has again this afternoon bought 120,000 MT each of both Russian and Ukraine wheat. With shipments currently standing at 12.335 MMT, the US needs to ship 471,200 MT of wheat a week for the remainder of the marketing year to hit the USDA's export target of 26 MMT. It's failed to do that in four of the last five weeks. South American weather is seen as generally favourable. Market direction from here may have more to do with outside influences, particularly from Europe. The Italian Treasury has placed EUR5 billion one-year bills at a yield of 6.08 percent, a 14 year high. In a similar auction in October the yield was 3.57 percent. EU growth forecasts have been slashed from 1.8 percent to just 0.5 percent. China's export growth is also slowing as the EU debt crisis bites. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn 3-4 cents higher, beans up 2-3 cents and wheat 1-2 cents firmer. Early strength in corn and wheat may fade in the light of the disappointing export sales numbers. 2008 |
## 2965 02/11/11 -- The overnight grains are mostly firmer with beans up 10-12 cents, corn up 2-3 cents and wheat around 1-2 cents higher nearby. Crude is a bit higher and the dollar a bit weaker, both adding modest support. Unlike yesterday nothing too bad has happened in the outside markets. Yet. Fresh news is very thin on the ground, it's almost as if we've got used to outside influences driving the market now. There's talk of bargain-hunting emerging with beans having fallen to three week lows last night, but are these the same bulls who drove the market up last Thursday in a very short-lived wave of europhoria? The market doesn't seem to want to go lower, but lacks the conviction to move higher either given the quagmire of debt engulfing Europe. The latter isn't going to go away any time soon though. Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12 cents, wheat up 1-3 cents, corn up 2-4 cents. 2008 |Agrimoney
The number of duplicated article is low. The most common problem with Agrimoney is how the same article can be featured in different section as demonstrated in the following example.
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "agrimoney", n = 2) %>%
select(., c(link, title))## link
## 64366 www.agrimoney.com/feature/agrimoney.com-nominated-for-two-media-awards--280.html
## 64371 www.agrimoney.com/news/agrimoney.com-nominated-for-two-media-awards--7038.html
## title
## 64366 Agrimoney.com nominated for two media awards
## 64371 Agrimoney.com nominated for two media awardsEuractive
With Euractive we also have the problem of the same article in different sections
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "euractiv", n = 1) %>%
select(., c(link, title))## link
## 24986 www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/
## 25005 www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/
## 27847 www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/that-bus-has-gone-eu-sees-no-brexit-u-turn-now/
## title
## 24986 ‘That bus has gone’: EU sees no Brexit U-turn now – EURACTIV.com
## 25005 ‘That bus has gone’: EU sees no Brexit U-turn now – EURACTIV.com
## 27847 ‘That bus has gone’: EU sees no Brexit U-turn now – EURACTIV.comIn addition to this, some links seem to be duplicated modulo some garbage.
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "euractiv", n = 4) %>%
select(., c(link, title))## link
## 31060 www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/russia-prepares-to-seize-western-assets/
## 31095 www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/russia-prepares-to-seize-western-assets/??????%20?????????%20????????????%20???????????%20??????
## 31118 www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/russia-prepares-to-seize-western-assets/?_?????????_????????????_???????????_
## title
## 31060 Russia prepares to seize Western assets – EURACTIV.com
## 31095 Russia prepares to seize Western assets – EURACTIV.com
## 31118 Russia prepares to seize Western assets – EURACTIV.comWorld Grain
Finally, we investigate the World Grain data. Despite the huge number of duplication, the source came mainly from two issues.
The high duplicates are mostly conferencenews feeds covering specific topics or events.
rawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "worldgrain", n = 1) %>%
select(., c(link, title))## link
## 6083 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D
## 6126 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=8
## 6128 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=9
## 6133 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=5
## 6134 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=3
## 6135 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=4
## 6136 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=2
## 6139 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=1
## 6142 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&p=1
## 6164 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=6
## 6165 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/Drought_impacting_maize_output.aspx?ID=%7BBE152335-FA32-4033-B473-E945277FEA95%7D&page=7
## title
## 6083 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6126 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6128 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6133 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6134 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6135 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6136 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6139 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6142 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6164 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\n
## 6165 \r\n\tDrought impacting maize output in southern Africa | World Grain\r\nrawArticles %>%
getDuplicated(rawArticle = ., dataSource = "worldgrain", n = 2) %>%
select(., c(link, title))## link
## 9295 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&cck=1
## 9343 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&page=2
## 9346 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&page=3
## 9348 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&page=4
## 9357 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&page=1
## 9359 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&cck=1&page=2
## 9379 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&p=1
## 9403 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&cck=1&page=3
## 9429 www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/Features/2016/08/2016_Australian_Milling_Confer.aspx?ID=%7B1C04D23C-F40C-4276-A5CF-880A2548D3AB%7D&cck=1&page=4
## title
## 9295 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9343 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9346 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9348 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9357 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9359 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9379 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9403 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\n
## 9429 \r\n\t2016 Australian Milling Conference | World Grain\r\nIt may make sense to aggregate those in a single article grouping by title.
Length of Articles
Below we show the length of the article for each soruce. It seems that Euroactiv has some extremely long text.
wordCount =
rawArticles %>%
mutate(wordCount = str_count(article, "[[:alpha:]]+"))
wordCount %>%
ggplot(data = ., aes(factor(source), wordCount)) +
geom_violin()
A investigation reveals that the longest article is actually not an article, rather a live feed. This might be a piece of information that might be useful in the modelling.
wordCount %>%
arrange(., desc(wordCount)) %>%
select(., title, article) %>%
unique %>%
head(., 10)## title
## 1 Greece says “Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia must accept European values” – EURACTIV.com
## 2 Furious Cameron vows not to pay EU budget bill – EURACTIV.com
## 3 European top court blocks pay rise for EU staff – EURACTIV.com
## 4 ‘Frustrated’ Füle cancels visit to Macedonia – EURACTIV.com
## 5 Cameron: ‘Free movement in EU needs to be less free’ – EURACTIV.com
## 6 EU envoy apologises for calling Macedonians ‘Slavs’ – EURACTIV.com
## 7 No risk with GMO food, says EU chief scientific advisor – EURACTIV.com
## 8 UN mediator tables new proposal for Macedonia’s name – EURACTIV.com
## 9 Bulgaria vetoes Macedonia’s EU accession talks – EURACTIV.com
## 10 Skopje politicians bicker over Macedonian name dispute – EURACTIV.com
## article
## 1 (updated: Venizelos: 'We're on a good path' Evangelos Venizelos, the foreign minister of Greece, which holds the Council of the EU's rotating presidency, said on Tuesday (21 January) that the main obstacle to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s EU membership was the country’s lack of respect for European values. “The obstacle for the beginning of accession negotiations especially between the EU and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is not the so-called name issue, said Venizelos, who was speaking at the EU-Serbia conference in Brussels on Tuesday (21 January). The problem is the acceptance of European values and the fulfillment of the political criteria of Copenhagen,” Venizelos said, adding he was speaking in his “capacity as the president of the Council of the EU,” representing the 28 EU member states. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has been an official EU candidate since 2005 and received a positive recommendation by the European Commission to start accession talks but has failed to actually initial them due to a lack of consensus among the EU member states. independency Although the name dispute between Athens and Skopje had undermined relations since 1995, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was nonetheless accepted as a fully-fledged member of the United Nations. And unlike for the start of EU talks, Athens did not block the country’s official EU Opinion is divided over why Greece decided to block the candidate’s EU path as of 2008, but many see the actions of Macedonia's right-wing government coalition of VMRO-DPMNE, which came to power in 2006, as “sheer provocation” towards Greece. The building of a statue of Alexander the Great in the centre of Skopje, the renaming of roads after the controversial warrior or the use of a map of ” in presence of the Macedonian premier, Nikola Gruevski, were all considered by Athens as irredentist claims over its territory and history. Asked by EURACTIV whether Belgrade could act as a facilitator in relations between Macedonia and Greece's dispute now that Serbia was a negotiating country, Ivica Da?i?, the Serbian prime minister, said: “You want us to help in that dispute? Don’t involve us in that, please,” Da?i? said jokingly in his native Serb. “But of course we want an acceptable solution. We have enough of our own problems but I’m pleased you’re asking us to get involved, it shows a change. Earlier nobody would have asked us to help anything, they would just tell us to stay away,” he continued, amusing the Serb-speaking audience and hinting at Serbia’s former status of “pariah state” under Miloševi?’s regime. As soon as the translation went back, Da?i? said however more seriously that if their “friends and brothers”, pointing at the Greek minister, “ask us to get involved, of course we can offer our good will.” rapporteur in the European Parliament on Macedonia said: The Greek Foreign Affairs Ministry has assured me that they will conduct their presidency in relation to Skopje objectively on behalf of the European Union as a whole. I am asking them to go further by seeing it as an opportunity for both sides to make genuine and sincere efforts to resolve the name issue, and to work towards a solution for the EU talks to begin. The EU Parliament voted a resolution on Tuesday (21 January) on Macedonia that calls on the current Greek presidency of the European Union should be turned to an advantage not an obstacle, in the light of the long-running name dispute between Athens and Skopje. Macedonia declared independence from the dissolving Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991. In 1995, Skopje and Athens reached a deal under UN auspices known as the Interim Accord. Under the agreement, the Republic removed the Vergina Sun from its flag and allegedly irredentist clauses from its constitution, and both countries committed to continuing negotiations on the naming issue under UN auspices. For its part, Greece agreed that it would not object to any application by the Republic so long as it used only the appellation set out in paragraph 2 of the United Nations Security Council resolution 817 This opened the door for the Republic to join a variety of international organisations and initiatives, including the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Partnership for Peace. The accord was not a conventional perpetual treaty, as it can be superseded or revoked, but its provisions are legally binding in terms of international law. Most unusually, it did not use the names of either party. Greece, the Party of the First Part, recognised the Republic of Macedonia under the term the Party of the Second Part. The accord did not specifically identify either party by name (thus avoiding the awkwardness of Greece having to use the term Macedonia in reference to its northern neighbour). Instead, it identified the two parties elliptically by describing the Party of the First Part as having Athens as its capital and the Party of the Second Part having its capital at Skopje. Subsequent declarations have continued this practice of referring to the parties without naming them. The country is an ethnic mosaic. Slavic Macedonians represent the largest group (64% of the population). Ethnic Albanians are the biggest minority (25%), with Turks (3%) and Roma (1.9%) also present. Integrating the ethnic Albanians has proved a cumbersome process, and the country has come close to civil war. The August 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, brokered by Western powers, halted the brinkmanship between the ethnic-Albanian communities (organised militarily in the National Liberation Army) and Macedonian forces. Of all the hurdles standing in the way of Macedonia's EU accession, the so-called 'name dispute' with Greece appears to be the biggest (see on 'EU-Macedonia relations'). Greece considers that Skopje is misappropriating large chunks of its ancient history. Similarly, Bulgaria considers that Macedonia is cherry-picking heroes and glorious episodes from its mediaeval history and the 19th- and early-20th century struggle against Ottoman rule. Recently, Skopje angered Athens by giant statue of a ‘warrior on horseback’ resembling Alexander the Great in the centre of Skopje. Both nations claim Alexander as a native son. pot kettle, kettle pot! we take no lectures from Greece Long live Macedonia What Greeks don’t understand in their arrogance is that the Republic of Macedonia and the ethnic Macedonians of slav origin are not aspiring to an exclusive use of the name and the history. It is Greece who is trying to monopolize the name – nobody in the Republic of Macedonia asks for northern Greece to not be called Macedonia as a regional name, or for them not to use ancient symbols and heritage. If you feel Macedonian by the line of helenic history as an ethnic Greek, you are by all means free to do so. We Macedonians from the Republic of Macedonia feel Macedonian by ethnicity, because we are different from the other Slav nations like Bulgarians and the Serbs and there is no other name that we can invent for ourselves. We have the right to embrace that name because we lived there for centuries and that is how we feel. Ancient Macedon empire has nothing to with either modern Greece or modern Republic of Macedonia. In the end there is your solution: we don’t claim we are the only Macedonia, but in order to make the distinction with Greek Macedonia, we can use our constitutional name that existed since 1944 as a federal state in Yugoslavia(not 20 years as some ignorant Greek said): the Republic of Macedonia. The most irritating issue in this situation is the stand of other European countries. It is so obvious that Greece is misusing its position to the level of absurdity, but EU is keeping silent in order to justify false “unity”. The EU countries should should for once address the problem, speak openly about their position and tell Macedonian people how it is. It is either welcome Macedonians to EU , or “no” we do not want you to be member of EU, because we are afraid of you, since you people are almost big in number as the city of Vienna, and that will destroy the fabric of the EU. Just for your info , the debt of Greece increased in third quarter of 2013 for 17 billion euros, from 300 billion euros to 317 billion euros. For comparison the total GDP of Macedonia is 7 billion euros. So please , don’t invent stories about European values. You do not have a slightest idea what is that. Never had, never will. This is a response to Ljubomir – Posted on : 23/01/2014 ___________ Ljubomir, It must be said that your contribution above to the debate is the most sensible and pacifist of all contributions that I have come to read from a national of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Nevertheless, it is not without some problems… Firstly, your pacifist position above is a minority position among your people. It is all good to seek to come across as logical and righteous for the third person who reads your post. The reality of the situation is that your state and vested interests within it have made explicit territorial claims to Greek national sovereignty and continue to usurp Greece’s cultural history to suit your political aspirations. For instance, it is a well known fact that in your churches and in your state offices, there are maps of Macedonia in Greece with Slavonic names and incorporated in some imaginary larger Macedonia. The fact your state was incorporating, as its flag, the sun of Vergina (a clearly Greek symbol) is evidence of this. Of course, the erection of statues of Alexander the Great and the naming of our national airport to Alexander the Great speaks volume of the incessant propaganda that is broadcast from the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Secondly, even by your attempted logic to reconcile the problem, you convenient omit that for a name whose application is geographical and regional, there cannot be an application of “Macedonia” to identify a unilateral state without this detracting from the rights of Macedonians nearby (Greeks). Why on earth should a state with a predominately Slav (inextricably linked to Bulgarian) and Albanian identity be heir to a cultural identity that existed in the wider region a thousand years earlier? Only but a small fraction of the present day Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia features in the historical map of the Macedonian kingdom at the time of Phillip and later Alexander. How and why should your republic have exclusive use of the name “Macedonia” to identify it as a republic when the historically significant town of Macedonia such as “Pella” (birthplace of Alexander) are found in Greece’s province of the same name? For the purpose of keeping this response as brief as I can, I will not even attempt to examine a myriad of other factors associating the Ancient Macedonian with their fellow Greek brothers (such as their common language, belief in the 12 Gods of Mount Olympus, etc). Greece must not accept any resolution to the name issue where “Macedonia” features as a permanent name proposal irrespective of any qualifiers. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia can have a state within a state containing the name “Macedonia” should they wish to refer to the relative small fraction of their state which was once upon a time a part of Ancient Macedonia. Even in this case, the link is superficial and without substance. Greece should consider supporting other nations in the wider region whose purpose is to undermine the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. After all, sometimes, an enemy’s enemy can be useful in a win-win situation when there is a common benefit to be had. Greek governments are deluding themselves if they believe there is a remote chance of persuading the nationalist revisionists in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia of becoming honest brokers in the history of the region. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has primarily slavic roots which emanate from political movements in nearby Bulgaria. The republic was known as southern Serbia and Bonaniva Vardaska (republic by the river Vardar) prior to the outbreak of World War II. The name “Macedonia” first crept into the lexicon as the name of the State sometime after World War II. Nevertheless, the nationalist tendencies existed and can be traced to Bulgarian nationalism in the late 1890s and early 1900s. This is the verifiable truth available for anyone to read and judge. Regards Dimitrios Hi… A little post script to my comments above. Some detractors wish portray Greece’s financial situation as evidence of Greece not espousing European Union values. There is really no connection between the two and it is futile to make one. Until recently, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was threatening to spiral into a civil war and its economy remains an unproductive basket case. Nevertheless, this is not relevant on the question of EU values. The main point the of EU values referenced rests in the notion that member states ought to demonstrate good neighbourly relations untoward one another and refrain from irredentist aspirations/behaviours. Hi… A little post script to my comments above. Some detractors wish portray Greece’s financial situation as evidence of Greece not espousing European Union values. There is really no connection between the two and it is futile to make one. Until recently, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was threatening to spiral into a civil war and its economy remains an unproductive basket case. Nevertheless, this is not relevant on the question of EU values. The main point the of EU values referenced rests in the notion that member states ought to demonstrate good neighbourly relations untoward one another and refrain from irredentist aspirations/behaviours. To the ultra nationalist former Yugoslavians trolling this thread, You very well know by your language and history as mostly former self-identifying Bulgarians that you are not “ethnic” Macedonians. There is no ambiguity on the matter whatsover as to whether ancient Macedonians were Slavs. They weren’t. Your own government used to assure your apologists only a few years ago that you are not related to Macedonians (to fool them into giving them recognition). There are no excuses left for your behavior. One no longer needs a history book to observe fanatics like you abuse widespread state recongition as a platform to sudden change identity into descendents ancient Macedonians at the behest of your extremist leader Gruevski. One no longer needs to an ancient history book to observe your use of obvious hostile propaganda to constantly insinuate Macedonia Greece is occupied (exactly as Greece warned would happen 20 years ago). The very fact your weaselly apologists try their hardest to pretend not to notice, is clear cut evidence of their bigotry towards Greeks. Therefore Greece should completely withdraw the offer for a name with a qualifier. There should be no Macedonia in your name whatsoever. It will not work. Even with a qualifier fanatics like you would continue to threaten our sovereign country with irredentism on the basis of historical fraud. The goal of the genocidal VMRO supporters is to ethnically erase Greeks to usurp our very identity. The goal of Greeks should turn into having your pseudo-state ,built entirely on fraud and ethnic hatred of Greeks, to be divided between Bulgaria and Albania to end this issue once and for all. It is a fair and enduring solution. Albanians make up nearly a quarter of the population of FYROM already. The FYROM citizens that are rational moderates and aren’t ashamed of their Bulgarian past would be reunited with their counsins in Bulgaria. All Greece would expect is neighbouring states not to use the name “Macedonia” in their region so as to close this issue permanently. Dear “Tim Bucknall”, You wouldn’t know something Macedonian if your life depended on it. You also seem to be experiencing short term memory problems. What did FYROM’s government mean when it used to assure its apologists… “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov President of FYROM ‘We do not claim to be descendants of Alexander the Great.’ – FYROM’S Ambassador Ljubica Acevshka, speech to US representatives, Washington DC, January 22 1999 ‘We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian.’ – FYROM´s Ambassador to Canada Gyordan Veselinov, Ottawa Citizen Newspaper, February 24 1999 To Dimetrios. Very strange that you are taking the liberty of telling other people what they are. Is that another of the European values Dimitrios, you are trying to hide behind ? By the way what happened to your name ? – it supposed to be DEMETAR , who gave you right to change it ? It is ancient Hellenic name and it is DEMETAR. You do not have any right to call yourself a Helen based on your highly sophisticated logic. The UN brokered negotiator to the name issue (“Mr Nimets”) is an interesting character. He has not shown any real initiative and preparedness to bring the two countries to the table over a common sense resolution which is truthful to the history of the region. The gentleman happily travels between New York, Athens, an Skopje and offers idiotic suggestions as possible suggestions which haven’t the remotest of chances to be approved by either side. It is quit clear that the motivations of Mr Nimets is to maintain this issue going on as long as possible and this way keeping him in a job! If there was a desire to select among likely names, these are just some examples which are true to history: – Paeonia – Dardania – Krusevo Republic – Vardaska Republic (or any variation) – Central Balkan Republic – Slavalbania Republic These names would be acceptable unopposed as they reflect the history or demographics of the area. Macedonia is a victim of the Greece identity problem. Greece and Greeks behave like a museum curator lost in the process of preservation of the ancient artifacts and falling in love so much with the job (because of the good benefits) that they want to keep it by all means. Otherwise how else to explain all these names Greeks like to be called, and have a name problem with a neighbor who got their name by the territory they live on and have only one name. For instance present day Greeks call themselves Hellenes and their state Ellada, while all world calls them Greece, Yunanistan, Javan in the Bible etc. There is no nation in their close proximity which calls them Hellenes or Ellada. For a nation with a 2400 years continuity and a culture which is foundation of the western culture and science, it is a little strange that no other language gave them dignity to name them as they name themselves. In the Roman Empire they were Achaia and Epirus (although the Romans were the ones who named them Greeks). In the Byzantine Empire period there was no mentioning of Greece or Ellada, so modern day Greece historians adopted Byzantine as their name, and in the Ottoman empire for four centuries, present day Greece territory was called Rumelia and Rumelians. So why a country with a so many names and different identities would care about somebody using name Macedonia. The answer to that question is the genocide on the territory of Northern Greece done to Macedonians from 1913 to 1948 in order to totally change the population fabric of Macedonia in Northern Greece. Moreover, although Greece claims that Republic of Macedonia stole name Macedonia from Greece, until 1987 there was no administrative region, city or province in Greece officially named Macedonia. On the other hand Macedonia has official name Peoples Republic of Macedonia since 1945. Greece got the territory of Macedonia from the superpowers as a present in 1913 with a very small Greek population on the territory compared to the other peoples living on the same territory. So to provide Greek element in the newly acquired territories, Greece made agreement with Bulgaria and Turkey to make a population exchange. In that way in 1923 around one million Greeks from Turkey were brought to Northern Greece and 400 000 Turks were moved to Turkey. Since the original inhabitants of the newly acquired territory were naming themselves as Macedonians, and didn’t speak Greek language, Greece made everything possible to expel this people from the Greek territory or to assimilate them into the Greek fabric. That genocide was going on from 1913 to 1948 when it ended with the exodus of approximately 400000 people to Republic of Macedonia, Poland and Russia. The ones who stayed were forced to change their names to a Greek names and name Macedonia was forbidden for use for identification purposes by these people. The right to call themselves Macedonians was given to those 1 million Greeks from Turkey, who were trying to find new home and history which will make them a newly founded brothers to already established Greeks. Moreover all of the names of the cities were changed to a Greek names, claiming that those were the names of the original antique Greek cities. However in this time no official name Macedonia was in use in Greece. In 1987 when it was imminent that Yugoslavia will be divided , and there was a possibility that republic of Macedonia will declare independence , Greece decided to introduce the name Macedonia and divided the region of North Greece to Central, West and East Macedonia. but yet again no part of Greece was officially named Macedonia (without adjectives). By laying to the world that they have a province with the same name as Republic of Macedonia, once again they twisted the truth, put themselves in a position of endangered species and call for the world help to defend them from the enemy of the civilization. That enemy of civilization is a 2 million people state compared to 10.3 million Greeks. I really don’t want to elaborate more on the deceiving nature of the Greek state, because at this point all of the EU countries are victims and subjected to it. Macedonia fault is that it is a small peaceful country near country which is not mature enough to be a friend ans a lieder in the regional development. If at one point we were wandering why is that, now is very clear that the Greek state is more accustomed to be on the funds receiving side, rather than one helping their neighbors. I don’t consider ancient Macedonia in any way relevant to the name issue today. Ancient Macedonia is one thing, our modern Republic is completely another. From that age, only the name and the archeological artefacts remained, along with the myths that both nations, both our Slav and your Greek, pass on from generation to generation. What was the territory of Alexander’s kingdom is completely irrelevant. What is relevant and basic human right is the right for any nation to call itself according to its feeling of identity. Greeks don’t have to teach me the history of my nation, neither does my current government, with its ancient statues, airport name changes and the rest of its insane propaganda, used only to prolong its rule. Today’s Macedonians as a nation developed somewhat later comparatively to the other nations in the region, whether it was because of propaganda or not in the region it doesn’t matter; it was in the second half of the 19th century was when nationalism on the Balkans emerged everywhere, and we followed. We exist, there is no law that says Slavs can’t be Macedonians. I understand the Greeks sentiment, hence my opinion that its the ‘Republic’ part what makes the distinction, without any threat towards Greece, since it is a political prefix describing state sovereignty and not much else, neither history nor territory. But Greeks don’t care about our sentiments. What Greece is doing now (and what Dimitrios is openly admitting by saying his country should ally with other countries in the region to undermine the Republic of Macedonia) is a crime against humanity and the encouraging of extinction of a state and its people, only because they want to call themselves Macedonians. This is exactly what Greece’s obstruction to Republic of Macedonia’s EU integration is. Greece will be responsible for implosion of its neighbor who in no way has the power to threaten it, it will be responsible for a potential civil war and the dying out of a nation. I don’t know if these are the European values Venizelos is referring to. You are absolutely right Dimitrious. The offer for a qualifier name should be witdrawn. It was the result of trying to appease Greek haters, allegedly our friends and allies, unfairly presurring Greeks into recognize the obvious frauds in the former Yugoslavia Now that the former Yugoslavians have turned into ancient Macedonians, right before the eyes of those very same people, and they didn’t denounce FYROM, they revealed themselves as prejudicial towards Greeks. Frankl, not only should we be hostile towards FYROM, but we should consider anyone that references them as a straight “Macedonian” at best as either having an ignorant indifferent towards the issues or outright genocidal towards Greeks. (more concerned with hiding their shame for ridiculously recognizing obvious propagandists as ethnic Macedonians) There are mountains and mountains of these genocidal bigots (including a few that work at alleged Human rights ngos). Be polite to them, but know in the back of their head they are trying to ethnically erase Greeks to cover up their disgraceful behavior towards Greeks. Meglena, I understand and concede that you and your nationals have perfected the art of writing for the benefit of the third person who is neither Greek not from FYROM. From your standpoint, your objective is not to influence me as mine is not to influence you. We both know we cannot influence one another. For me, the reason you are not able to influence me is quite simple. I cannot go contrary to what is universally accepted by historians from all over the world as facts of history. For your part, I cannot influence you as you have been indoctrinated in unrelenting nationalist propaganda that is uncompromising. You are clever in trying to undermine me by reference to me supposedly knowing about your identity more than yourself. You are well aware that a foreigner reading this post may be inclined to sympathize with your vein attempt to win the emotion. I do not pretend to know who you are on a personal level. My point is simply that Macedonians are residents in the northern Greek province bearing the same name (“Macedonia”). Unless you are a Greek national from Macedonia in Greece or a Greek living outside of Greece, you cannot by a matter of logic be a “Macedonian” – It is that simple. There is a difference between what someone believes they are and what they actually are. Regards Dimitrios Dear Ljubomir – You said… “I don’t consider ancient Macedonia in any way relevant to the name issue today” You very well know you are currently a minority in your country. Trying to evasively pretend you don’t notice a fair chunk of your countrymen (those that elected crazied Gruevski) now ridiculously claiming to be descendents of ancient Macedonians is dishonest debate. Pretending not to notice how they constantly insinuate Macedonia Greece is “occupied Macedonia” is dishonest debate. Also your claim that a nation can name itself anything its wants and automatically get recognition is fabricated. The former Yugoslav Republic itself a few years ago withdrew recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) when China agree to recognize it. If you wish your neighbours to take you seriously, deal with the issues head on. Don’t evade and go on unfair rant against Greeks as a method to manipulate third party readers. It will only fuel well earned hostility towards you. Ljubomir, Once again, I can see that your position on the subject sets you apart from the overwhelming majority of people in your state. That is a good thing as it would appear that you are, on balance, more likely to come to an agreed understanding since you seemingly come across as less affected by the propaganda that has been dished out. Nevertheless, I respectfully disagree with you as to the supposed right you claim your nation has to refer to itself with a name that which history clearly tells us does not belong to you and that you have no significant association with it. The same cannot be said of modern day Greeks as “Macedonia” and “Macedonians” are as Greek as “Athenians”, “Corinthians”, and “Spartans” etc are to modern day Greece. Again, it is not necessary for me to reproduce the myriad of reasons why the name and culture of Macedonia was associated with the Ancient Greeks and why modern day Greeks are heirs to the Ancient Greeks (albeit many manifestations of other races and bloodlines over the aeons!). As for my statement of covert activities toward Skopje, these are clearly my personal views. I do not represent the official Greek position and I am sure Greece could have pursued such policies it wanted to. Clearly, we have come to known that Greece rejected suggestions at the time from Milosovic to partition the FYROM. As modern democratic country in touch with obligations to the international community, Greece does not engage in such militaristic campaigns or covert operations. Greece’s unwillingness to do this, however, helps to explain why your national governments behave in the way the do. It is what colloquially we say you give an inch and some take a mile. Again Ljubomir, your common sense position is not the position of the vast majority of your fellow countrymen or your elected individuals in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. If your politicians did not seek to confuse the ancient with the modern, the erection and naming of statues of Ancient Macedonian names, the circulation of greater Macedonia maps in schools and churches with Greek sovereign territory, then there would not be the tension which currently there is. In short, your good intentions are not consistent with the practices of your state and vast majority of your nationals. Regards Dimitrios Dear meglena, I love how you repeatedly keep assuring everyone how you have an absolutely human right to state recognition. However, one has to ask, who gave the government of former Yugoslav region of Vardar, the right to not recognize the self-determined name and state of the Republic of China? “The Macedonian side stated once again that it will not establish official ties of any form or conduct official exchanges with Taiwan, and that it opposes Taiwan’s accession to any international organization whose membership requires statehood” Dear Dimitrios, You state.. “In short, your good intentions are not consistent with the practices of your state and vast majority of your nationals. Bingo. The former Yugoslavians say one thing publically then in FYROM do the exact opposite. They officially claim they aren’t interested in irredentism, but anyone can Google the term “United Macedonia” to find countless references of FYROM nationalists suggesting Macedonia Greece is “occupied”. This is the result of a conscious effort by FYROM pundits, media and politicians. They reference Greek macedonian cities with Slavic names like “Solun” and Greece as “Yunanstan” while encouraging them to see themselves as descendants of ancient Macedonians. No country on earth would tolerate this behavior from a neighbour. One has to ask where are our alleged Nato allies and self-proclaimed NGOS when it comes time to dencoucing FYROM’s irredentism? The very fact they evasively pretend they don’t notice suggests very real bigotry. Anonymous Greek (a Greek), A perfect example you provide there showing the ineptitude and inconsistency of the argument put forward by Meglena. Of course, this is the problem when logic and argument is made on the run, it falls apart every time when it is analysed. My fellow Greek, it is my view the politics propagated by FYROM is actually more dangerous for the Greek national interest over the longer term than any other by our larger neighbour to the East. It is one thing to have some territory contested from time to time and something else to have your very identity stolen. I do not believe there is any real possibility of reaching a consensus position with our little neighbour to the north. I think it is really a case of seeking to limit it where possible and seeking to being about its eventual demise. I likened the politics of the FYROM as a cancer that has to be restrained and cut out before it’s migration (metastase) to vital organs of the body. I would be lying to all of you if I did not express my honest view on the subject. Of course, this does not imply that I would support any action that would result in the loss of human life or genocide. It is the politics of hate and irredentist dreams I wish to end and not a people’s right to self determination. Regards Dimitrios Anonymous Greek (a Greek), A perfect example you provide there showing the ineptitude and inconsistency of the argument put forward by Meglena. Of course, this is the problem when logic and argument is made on the run, it falls apart every time when it is analysed. My fellow Greek, it is my view the politics propagated by FYROM is actually more dangerous for the Greek national interest over the longer term than any other by our larger neighbour to the East. It is one thing to have some territory contested from time to time and something else to have your very identity stolen. I do not believe there is any real possibility of reaching a consensus position with our little neighbour to the north. I think it is really a case of seeking to limit it where possible and seeking to being about its eventual demise. I likened the politics of the FYROM as a cancer that has to be restrained and cut out before it’s migration (metastase) to vital organs of the body. I would be lying to all of you if I did not express my honest view on the subject. Of course, this does not imply that I would support any action that would result in the loss of human life or genocide. It is the politics of hate and irredentist dreams I wish to end and not a people’s right to self determination. Regards Dimitrios Gruevski’s strongest argument to the average Macedonian is that no matter how we act, Greece will continue to deny our right to self-determination. Therefore he is entitled to do whatever he wants and impose his insane ancient Macedonian ideas without constraint, since Greece will never agree for our constitutional name to stay anyway. He managed to convince the people that since Greece will pursue its negatory policy no matter what we do, we should unite under the pretense of maximum nationalism, since everybody is against us. Its a simple psychological tool for mobilization that helps him stay in rule. Frankly I don’t see Greece helping to change the situation. You are not against Gruevski and his actions, you are against the Macedonian people. You were doing the same even before he came to power. Instead of reaching out to people like me in the minority and helping them escape Gruevski’s trance, you alienate them. Final thought because I no longer want to debate with people who want my nation to be exterminated. Greece’s identity is not only Macedonia. Ours is. We have much more to lose than you do. Imagine for a moment somebody asking your country not to be named Greece. by the way, there is a city called Athens in the state Georgia in the US. forward any complaints you have of stealing your heritage to them as well. @Dimitrios As FYROM’s quick change into descendents of ancient macedonians and irredentism now shows, those that think calling the former Yugoslav region “Macedonia” will solve the issues are living in a fantasy world. At this juncture, I agree our goal should be the obliteration of this pseudo-state built entirely on ethnic hated of Greeks. I also agree it shouldn’t be through violence. It should be through demographic movements, negotiations and peaceful elections. It is the only long term solution that is sustainable. Our government should stop appeasing FYROM’s Greek hating apologists. When they inexcusably tried to whitewash FYROM’s irredentist behavior and identity quick change to cover up their mistake of recognizing FYROM, they lost any last shred of moral credibility on the issue. If they can’t honestly report history in their own lifetime, anything they have to say about ancient history is moot. Greek hating bigots sums them up. Our focus should now turn to having candid discussions with Albanian, Bulgarians and moderate FYROM nationalists that don’t oppress evidence of their ethnic Bulgarian roots. Not all the former Yugoslavians are crazed Gruevski supporters. There are moderates within the country that can be worked with. Albeit it a minority, many FYROM nationalist have applied for Bulgarian citizenship and actually denounce the Gruevski regime for its aggressive posture towards Greeks (including FYROM’s own former Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski) There are also the Albanians who would be more than happy to annex western FYROM to Albania (where they already make up the majority of the population. And after being the first country to recognize FYROM, the Bulgarians are also angry with FYROM for rebranding their own historical figures as “ethnic macedonians” (much more sensitive to our situation now that they are in similar shoes) In my opinion, the best long term solution is the partition of FYROM between Bulgaria and Albania. Not only will it solve the name dispute but it is a show of good faith to our neighbours that our interest isn’t irredentism. Its simply self-defense of our identity and country. Dimitrios , you wrote “I do not pretend to know who you are on a personal level. My point is simply that Macedonians are residents in the northern Greek province bearing the same name (“Macedonia”). Unless you are a Greek national from Macedonia in Greece or a Greek living outside of Greece, you cannot by a matter of logic be a “Macedonian” – It is that simple.” So Dimetrios if it that simple and I showed to you that Greece never in history until 1987 called the territory in Northern Greece, – Macedonia. You got the teritory for first time in 1913. Since than to 1987 is called Northern Greece. Than one can question on what basis are the inhabitants in Northern Greece now Macedonians. Why they are not Spartanians, or for that meter Northern Greeks , since that territory in Greece for 64 years was called Northern Greece and only last 27 years is called Central Macedonia. Do you have a logical answer on this question Dimitrios ? How did you gave yourself the name Macedonians ? “no matter how we act, Greece will continue to deny our right to self-determination” Uou repeat the same lins over and over again. Your belief in absolute right to recognition is just one more myth. Your right to self-determination is an absolute. Greece will not invade you to force you to go back to calling yourselves ethnic Bulgarians. Heck Greeks might have even acccepted you as “macedonian” had you actually been friendly to Macedonian culture and language (i.e. Greek). However, your right to recognition by other states is not an absolute.. especially when we both know the extremist Gruevski regime manipulates the name to encourage irredentism against neighbouring states. If you believe recognition is you should lecture your proapgandists leader Gruevski why he doesn’t reocgnize the name and self-determination of the Republic of China before claiming recognition an absolute right for FYROM. Dear Ljubomir, Greeks do not object to the people of Athens Georgia using the name Athens because unlike citizens of the former Yugoslav Republic, the people living there do not insinuate they are direct descendents of ancient Macedonians and use that to claim 1/3 of Greece as “occupied” Macedonia. Cry you crocodile tears of persecution to your bigot apologists that pretend not to notice your government’s bizarre attempt to usurp our history and insinuate our country is occupied. The fact is you made the choice to go down the path of undeclared war against us not Greeks. You could have chosen a name unencumbered by history for your new state. You could have gone back to calling yourselves Bulgarian. Instead you listened to the hatefilled ultra nationalist that tried to convince you that you are all “victims” for engaging in obvious fraud and irredentism. You wanted a fight. You got it. Dear meglena. You keep falsely suggesting Greeks only arrived in Macedonia in 1913. The middle age and ancient artifacts, virtually all written in Greek, suggest otherwise. You also seem to have forgotten that FYROM itself was called Vardar Yugoslavia until Tito’s provocatively renamed it Macedonia in 1944 and that most of your are direct descendents of people that self-identified as ethnic Bulgarian prior to that renaming.(Macedonians in a regional not ethnic sense) Ljubomir, Gruevski has been in power for two terms or so…. So what? The irredentist position of the FYROM has been place since the dissolution of Yugoslavia in 1991. In any case, your suggestion that Gruevski adopted such an absurd position in response to Greeks’ intransigence is laughable. That is not how foreign policy is conducted. No modern day politician would claim his people to be descendants of one race or another just as a form of retaliation. What are laughing stock of a politician he would be. In reference to the extermination of your country, well that would be infinitely preferable if, as enemy, you seek the misappropriation and theft of my country and my identity. But, short of that, I have not supported for any detriment to the livelihood of your people. As for Athens in Georgia, Ohio, and elsewhere in the US and around the world, there is a difference between the world paying you flattery and the FYROM seeking your demise! Last time I checked, Americans from Athens in Georgia regarded themselves as American and recognised the name of their city to be a modern appropriation of the name of Ancient Athens. Athenian residents in Georgia do not have maps of a greater Athens passing the Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Mediterranean! I hope this clears it up for you. Best regards. Dimitrios Here is another example of how FYROM ultra natioanlists consciously lie and lie through their teeth meglena claimed to you.. “So Dimetrios if it that simple and I showed to you that Greece never in history until 1987 called the territory in Northern Greece, – Macedonia.” FYROM extremists like meglena have confused the reorganization of prefectures with the ridiculous idea we didn’t call the region Macedonia until 1987., Greece has been calling our region Macedonia since the very day we liberated Macedonia from the Ottomans. Newspapers, schools, businesses and countless other references exist proving this but meglena (and other FYROM extremists like her) keep repeating the same lie. There is no debating with conscious liars. Meglena, I am only too happy to answer you about the Greek geographical area of Macedonia. Firstly, it is incorrect what you allege of Greece only referring to its northern frontier by this name. I have come across this comment before by proponents of the FYROM line, but it is simply untrue. Unlike countries like the USA, Canada, and Australia, Greece does not have actual states given it’s relatively small size and it’s largely homogenous population. Conversely, Greece is divided into small area provinces for administrative reasons. However, different provinces are grouped together to form wiser geographic regions such as the Peloponese, Thessalia, Makedonia, Thraki, etc…. Given the size of Macedonia in Greece, it is further subdivided into Eastern and central, etc. The periphery of Macedonia has existed in the modern Greek state since the modern Greek state was founded in 1830, irrespective if present day Greek Macedonia was part of the Ottoman Empire or appropriated to the territory of modern day Greece, Do not confuse the modern day sub division of Greek Macedonia to Central and East as some indication of foul play. The term Macedonia existed in the Greek consciousness since time in memorial. conversely, the term entered your collective mindset in the 1890s and resurfaced after the Second World War. I trust this answers your question. Best regards Dimitrios Every nation in the region is partly a descendant of ancient Macedonians. Its because they lived in the same region so of course there is going to be a connection. But ancient Macedonians are gone for 2000 years. They have very little to do with both you and us in modern times in both genetic and cultural sense. As for the maps that you keep harping about, every state in the region has that, Greater Serbia imagined almost entire Yugoslavia as part of it, greater Albania seeks to include western Macedonia and Kosovo like in the world war, and Bulgarians dream of Great Bulgaria of San Stefano agreement with Macedonia and Thrace. Yet none of their neighbors pursue a policy of isolation and impoverishment to create internal tensions so they would disappear. These maps are nationalist dreams of stupid people, they dont have any ground in reality, just as the concept of United Macedonia. It is never going to happen. And the Slav population of the region Macedonia is not Bulgarian. Before the modern day concept of nations and ethnicities appeared, we were close to Bulgarians, but once people started to define themselves, it was clear that we are not Bulgarians in the same way that we are not Serbs. We will never be Bulgarians, you can be sure of that. You can’t turn back time. Choose another name? Go to our Bulgarian roots of centuries ago, when they were common Slav/Christian roots? do you even hear what youre saying? Okay than Greek , Tell us how you are calling it between yourself now , so we do not have other issues in the future. HAHAHAHAHAHA. I apologise, but this was too funny. You were calling it Macedonia between yourselves but never had a guts to put the name officially to the territory. Why is that Greek ? You did not fail to give name to Sparta to the empty land and make a city on that spot called Sparta didn’t you ? On one side you were making cities on the empty land and naming it Sparta , and on the other hand you were shy to call the land you have Macedonia ? There is something smelling here Greek isn’t it.? If you do not know there was no city or village Sparta existing in 1832 on the territory of Greece. The village /city was build from scratch to show the “continuity” . On the other side you had the continuity in front of you but you failed to officially call it Macedonia. Very weak Greek, very weak. If you did not now Sparta was built from scratch, brand new city 1834 with an order from the new Greek king ( German dinasty) Otto, and build by Bavarians. Dear Ljubomir, You say, “Every nation in the region is partly a descendant of ancient Macedonians” Pure hogwash. Furthermore, I would note no other nation in the world, save FRYOM, feels the urge to call themselves “ethnic macedonians” and use that to insinuate Macedonia Greece is occupied territory. You also say.. “And the Slav population of the region Macedonia is not Bulgarian. ” I would agree the majority no longer identity as Bulgarian but it is a historical fact that prior to 20th century the majority of slavs in FYROM self-identified as Bulgarians. Hiding this won’t change the fact even your own national “Macedonian” heros admitted this. “We are Bulgarians, more Bulgarians than the Bulgarians in Bulgaria themselves.”[…]’And, anyway, what sort of new Macedonian nation can this be when we and our fathers and grandfathers and great-grandfathers have always been called Bulgarians?” – Krste Misirkov We are Bulgarians and we always work and will work for the unification of the Bulgariandom.” -Dame Gruev “Let us not allow the splits and splintering to frighten us. It is, indeed, a pity, but what can we do, since we are Bulgarians and all suffer from one common disease. If this disease had not been present in our ancestors, from whom we inherited it, they would have never fallen under the sceptre of the Turkish Sultan… ” – Gotse Delchev Excerpt from the 1996 statute of BMARC, renamed IMRO. Written originally in what was considered Bulgarian dialect and co-authored by Gotse Delchev, Hristo Tatachev, Dame Gruev. Article 3. “A member of BMARC can be any BULGARIAN, independent of gender” Ljubljana, Ultimately, I don’t concern myself with what ethnic consciousness you assign to yourself as long as you seek not to usurp my identity in the process through falsification and misappropriation of the history of my people (good or bad). Though, it is interesting how you go out of your way to disassociate the identity of your nation from neighbouring Bulgaria when in reality Bulgarian identity has given your state more influence over successive generations than any other Slavic identity. It is also interesting how your so-called “Macedonian” language is mutually intelligible with Bulgarian in as much as the Serbian language is mutually intelligible with Croatian (Both referred to as Serbia-Croat languages). I suspect you are a confused people who feel the need to want to belong somewhere. Australia and Canada are good examples of a modern day countries which chose an identity if their own and which are now prospering. There is every reason to believe that citizens of your country could have done the same through the selection of a unique name of their very own such as “Krusevo Republic” or similar. In such a scenario, Greece would have undoubtedly been your strongest and most reliable supporter. Best regards Dimitrios Dear meglena, We don’t have an official prefecture called “peloponnese” but this does not mean we don’t call the region Peloponese. Going on more evasive red herrings does not dismiss my point you are a conscious liar by ridicuslously claiming Greece did not reference the region as Macedonia prior to 1987. You are such an dishonest debater you couldn’t even follow the link to see with your own eyes indisputable evidence we referenced the region as Macedonia prior to 1987. Now can you please points us al to a region called “Macedonia” in this 1944 Yugoslav stamp? All anyone can find prior to this point is a region officially called Vardar. At the time, the majority of its inhabitants still considered themselves ethnic Bulgarian. (you thank a combination of Gruevski, IMRO and communist propaganda for your “Macedonian” identity) Dimitrios, you said: “The term Macedonia existed in the Greek consciousness since time in memorial. conversely, the term entered your collective mindset in the 1890s and resurfaced after the Second World War. ” Beside that you did not answer the question how you name yourselves Macedonians, you also are trying to twist the facts. I agree that the name Macedonia always existed in the Greek consciousness but only as an enemies. Only as a stupid internal shame you inherited with the annexation of the Macedonian history. You inherited the humiliation of the Greeks by Filip and Alexander and now you are trying that internal conflict to hide by declaring that both are Greeks, so it was just a family feud. Nothing more. You are doing the same thing right now with Europe, by constantly pointing out that somehow you are the same, and they owe you money and protection for some imaginary contribution to the world knowledge in the past. I really do not want to say it loud , but your race is on the path of becoming the same as the German race before WWII. It is the same model planted by the same German aristocrats. It grows within you and obviously you are always under attack from somebody. It is only way you can justify the purity. But because you are weak as a nation, the only place where you are going to show your strength is the unarmed country, your neighbor. That’s all. It took Macedonians a while to figure out the impotency if the Greek politics, but we are right there. The Greek people do not believe in all that crap about the purity of Greeks. That is simply a bad politics. Meglena, You are just not making sense with your post in reference to Sparta and Macedonia. Modern day Sparta was built by royal decree on the site of Ancient Sparta. Athens itself was little more than a village in 1830…. So your point is what.??? Macedonia was never a Greek City state rather a kingdom of people who recognised a sense of autonomy and independence not to mention contempt and admiration of prosperous Greek city states! The agglomeration and harmonisation of Macedonian identity to that do other Greek City States happened about 1.000 years before your Slav and Bulgar ancestors came to the region…so, what is your point? Macedonia within Greece has always been known by this name. Your post does not make any sense, Dimitrios Meglena, It is immaterial if the Ancient Macedonians had gripes and competitive urges with neighbouring Greek city states. You and I were not alive back then and we certainly cannot interview Phillip or Alexander for their views, Though, if we could interview these two they would say, “Who is Slav and Bulgarian”? Phillip and his son would not have recognised you as you simply did not exist in the area. conversely, they would recognise their neighbouring Greeks as they shared a common Greek language and both were adherents to the 12 Greek gods and participants in the Greek Olympic Games. I remind you that at the death of Alexander the Great, the Hellenistic Age (Greek Age) was borne. Why is this not being referred to by scholars the world over as the Macedonian age? more importantly, why is there no reference to Slavs and Bulgars? I have had a gut full of your lies, deceptions, propaganda. The whole world is coming to see you for the real cockroaches that you are. Greece’s financial problems are a smokescreen and diversionary tactic from the deal debate and it is one you refer to you scumbags when you lose the argument and run to hide. Even with an economy reduced by 25%, Greece’s GDP pet capita is more than double yours! Also, Greek companies own majority stakes in your banks, cement companies, and other businesses. in short, Greek business is keeping many of you employed. You people have copied us for as long as I can remember. You were goat herders who decanted from the mountains and wanted to be every bit like us. How creepy! Enough crap for a day! Dimitrios How can a half slavic half Albanian country like FYROM who speak Bulgarian/Albanian be known as Macedonia, since the Ancient Macedonians spoke Greek and claimed to be Greeks at the first place? All slavs arrived into Europe 1000 years after Alexander the Great, it seems that the people of FYROM need to find another name that it more suitable for its Slavic/Albanian tiny country. There is only one true ‘Macedonia’ and it is in Greece!! FYROM playing games by building statues of Greek heroes like Alexander The Great and Phillip II, renaming roads and airport to Alexander The Great means that FYROM has broken its Interim Accord agreement with Greece and a VETO has been placed. NO! TO FYROM USING THE GREEK NAME OF MACEDONIA. Dimitrios, interesting how your democratic capacity evolved during the conversation. It started with Dear and end up with cockroaches. I do understand your frustration. It does happen to people exposed to a truth. Believe me, my intention is not that, but just a fact check which might make look on the propaganda with new eyes. I do not have anything against Greeks, and as you said Macedonia does not have anything against it. A lot of Macedonian companies are owned by Greek capital. But I do have against a people who are claiming that there are no Macedonians north of Greece. That is just primitive and uneducated. And that will change. As you see the wish of some of the Greek commentators was Macedonia to be divided and not to exist. How seek is that? That is what we Macedonians are against. People who discuss like that. And on the end to clear for you the point about Sparta. The nation which was eager to show the continuity to ancient history by building a city named after the ancient city , would certainly welcomed the possibility to include the ancient name of Macedonia in their curriculum, once they got it in 1913. But they did not until 1987. The question for you is why is that , when according to you everybody was calling the territory Macedonia , and naming themselves Macedonians. Why naming the object of the Megali idea to Northern Greece. what happened.? And don’t worry , you are not the first one to exit the discussion in this manner when all of the arguments are proven worthless. It is either that or a constant insult from the “democratic” Greeks. Dear Malena, North of orginall ancient Kingdom of macedonia (located essentially entirely in Greee) is located the region of ancient Paeonia. North of that is Dardinia. We are sorry former self-identifying ethnic Bulgarians now living in what was once ancient Paonia and Dardinia have confused ancient and modern place names. You seem to have great dificulty acknowledging FYROM modern ethnic Bulgarian past so debating ancient history seems rather pointless. We are also sorry you have chosen to name your 20 year old country “Macedonia” and engages obvious historial fraud to encourage irredentism against Greece. You have no one but fanatics like yourself to blame for that. ‘We do not claim to be descendants of Alexander the Great.’ – FYROM’S Ambassador Ljubica Acevshka, speech to US representatives, Washington DC, January 22 1999 “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first President of FYROM Than you Greek for proving my point. Thank you Greek for proving my point. Dear meglena, You seem to be having vision problems noticing the verbattim quotes by your own modern “Macedonian” national heroes claiming your ethnic heritage was Bulgarian. What one of your points do you think I proved? 1. That obvious slavs are direct descendents of ancient Macedonians? 2. That ancient Paeonia is the original kingdom Macedonians? 3. That anient Macedonians, founders of the Hellenic League, self-identifying Greeks, spreaders of Greek language and culture… identified with Slavicism? 4. That if enough patronizing bigots “recognize” you, it will change the Greek writing on countless ancient Macedonian artifacts to suggest otherwise? Good luck with your foolproof plan. Maybe you can chisel out the Greek writing from ancient Macedonians artifacts and replace with the Bulgarian dialect you modified and renamed “Macedonian”. Many extremists from the former former Yugoslav region of Vardar today claim they are descendents of ancient Macedonians (while many of their apologists pretend not to notice) They also often claim that greeks didn’t use the word “Macedonia” prior to 1987. Sometimes they even claim Greeks “oppressed” the use of the word macedonia. “DECLARATION OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT OF MACEDONIA” “To the Governments of the European powers” The long lasting sufferings which the respectable governments have heard about from their representatives, and which by now have reached a state of stressful despair, have obliged the inhabitants of Macedonia to take up arms in order to defend their lives, their honour and property. Calling a meeting today the representatives of the various communities in Macedonia, overthrew the Sultan´s tyrannical authority, declared the union of Macedonia with mother Greece, and chose us in order to form the Temporary Government of the revolution with the obligation to ask from the Christian super powers their mighty protection for the justification of our fight…(Macedonia) is ready to be freed and connected to mother Greece, even if it needs to be delivered to fire and disaster rather than continue living under the tyranny of various Turkish notables. They destroyed and violated the honour and sanctity of family life. All promises and obligations that the Turkish authorities gave to its subjects have proved by now to be nothing more than purposely sly and deceptive. The Turkish government has several times granted rights but tyranny has never been loosened. On the contrary, our misfortunes became endless and horrible because this government has neither power nor authority. Therefore, we were forced to seek our arms so that we may die as men as Greeks if we are not allowed to live like logical and free men.” {Signed] In Litohoro, Mt. Olympus [on] 19th February, 1878 [by the members of] The Temporary Government of Macedonia/ First of all, Serbian and Croatian are virtually the same language, unlike Macedonian and Bulgarian, which are mutually intelligible, but far from the level of similiarity between Serbian and Croatian. Yet I dont see anyone claiming that Serbs are Croats or vice versa. How is then the mutual intelligibility of Macedonian and Bulgarian language proof that it is the same nation? If we are Bulgarians, then you are Turks coming from Anatolia, simple as that. Once and for all, Alexander the Great has nothing to do with either modern Greece or modern Republic of Macedonia. Too bad this is not the 19th century, or ancient times dimitros. You need a reality check. No country has ever changed its name, and no country ever demanded it. The real cockroaches are you and one day God will punish you for what youre doing now. I thought you were indifferent to the prospect of an entire nation being wiped out, but turns out its even worse – you wish for it to happen. All because of your pettiness and insecurity over something that happened 2000 years ago. Its no wonder how an organization like Golden Dawn thrives there. A Greek , I really am sorry for your problems with understanding history. You see the stories they told you, are only stories, and they are not about you , a present Greek, in debt up to his neck, a synonym for a uneducated peasants , not capable of producing anything, but the stories are for the people who lived 2500 years ago, the top of the civilized world at that time. And reality check for you, you have in common with that Helen as same as the African or German born 5000 miles away from Greece. In short you have nothing in common with those people. And things to be more tragic your way of thinking would be despised by the same ancient wise man. They were for spreading the knowledge and bot hiding it. Even by simple comparison of the cultures between ancient Hellenes and you , so called descendants of the Hellenes shows that there is nothing there in you. And unfortunately for you , that and only that is what the world regards as biggest contribution of the Hellenes to the world. It is pointless to tell you that you and a lot of hotheaded present Greeks are behaving totally opposite. So to conclude for you. We are Macedonians, we have a state called Macedonia, we have Macedonian passports and speak Macedonian language, and if takes that we never be part of European Union to keep our identity, so be it. But we will be Macedonians despite the obstacles. Dear meglena, You former Yugoslavians keep claiming a variety of narratives about the ancient past but seem to be having problems reporting history from your own lifetime. Rather than evading again, can please remind everyone again what your own government officials meant when they used to assure your apologists only a few years ago… “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first elected President of FYROM ‘We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian.’ – FYROM´s Ambassador to Canada Gyordan Veselinov, Ottawa Citizen Newspaper, February 24 1999 ‘We do not claim to be descendants of Alexander the Great.’ – FYROM’S Ambassador Ljubica Acevshka, speech to US representatives, Washington DC, January 22 1999 “The creation of the Macedonian nation, for almost half of a century, was done in a condition of single-party dictatorship. In those times, there was no difference between science and ideology, so the “Macedonian” historiography, unopposed by anybody, comfortably performed a selection of the historic material from which the “Macedonian” identity was created. There is nothing atypical here for the process of the creation of any modern nation, except when falsification from the type of substitution of the word “Bulgarian” with the word “Macedonian” were made.” – Denko Maleski, former Minister of foreign affairs of FYROM from 1991 to 1993 in an interview to FYROM newspaper Utrinski Vesnik Ljubomir, I highly recommend you open a history book on where your “Macedonian” language came from (other than one written by ultra natioanlist extremists in FYROM) The obviously plagiarized historical argument of the Macedonian nationalists for a separate Macedonian ethnicity could be supported only by linguistic reality, and that worked against them until the 1940s. Until a modern “Macedonian literary language was mandated by the socialist-led partisan movement from Macedonia in 1944, most outside observers and linguists agreed with the Bulgarians in considering the vernacular spoken by the Macedonian Slavs as a western dialect of Bulgarian. ” – Dennis P. Hupchick, “Conflict and Chaos in Eastern Europe”, Palgrave Macmillan, 1995 In the 1990s,Macedonians speak a language codified in 1946,spoken by less than two million people, and with a very slender literature. They are members of an Orthodox Church whose authority was established by a socialist political regime in 1968.They are heirs to a 1903 revolution that until the 1940s was described by almost all sources as being Bulgarian.”The history of the Balkan Peninsula” Ferdinand Schevill page 432 Dear meglena, I find it amusing (and telling) when you former Yugoslavians attempt to suggest delete our very real connection to ancient Greeks. Other than having some language, geography, dna and mass amounts of culture and ideas in common with ancient Greeks, we have absolutely nothing to do with them. Good luck finding a modern people with more in common ancient peers than Greeks. We look forward to you trying to talk modern Germans, Jews, Chinese, British, French, Russians, and many others that they have absolutely no connection to ancient counterparts. Ok, you opened my eyes, now I will definitely convert to Bulgarian. Oh wait, its not the 19th but the 21st century. We say hello and welcome. Strange how everybody instantly learned this new language in the 1940s by the way… Dear Greek, I am not saying delete the connections with old Greeks. On the contrary, I am saying , try to make a connection with the ancient wise Hellenes. Write now you can not delete anything since you never never had a connection. Once you establish it, than we might talk about the right of every human pursue of happiness and democracy. And as a free education lesson for you, the worth of wise ancestors is measured through your readiness to accept their teachings. That and only that is the connection which we have as a people with the ancestors. Our ancestors told us that we are Macedonians and we the Macedonians honor that. If your ancestors told you the same than we must be same people. But it looks that your ancestors did not tell you what you are , but they told you what other people aren’t. And that my friend is not sign of civilization. That is not the part world cherish about Hellenic civilization. You will need to revisit your connections with your ancestors. Ljubomir, strange how some refuse to open a history book and instead repeat talking points of ultra nationalist extremists. Let me quote you academic Loring Danforth. I use Danforth because he’s a long time apologists for the former Yugoslavians (ergo – as pro-FYROM he can hardly be accused of being pro-Greek) Danforth is even listed on MHRMI website as a historical expert. (hardly a pro-Greek source) Here is what even Danforth says in his book about you. “The history of the construction of a Macedonian national identity does not begin with Alexander the Great in the fourth century B.C. or with Saints Cyril and Methodius in the ninth century A.D. as Macedonian nationalist historians often claim” “Krste Misirkov, who had clearly developed a strong sense of his own personal national identity as a Macedonian and who outspokenly and unambiguously called for Macedonian linguistic and national separatism, acknowledged that a Macedonian national identity was a relatively recent historical development.” “The political and military leaders of the Slavs of Macedonia at the turn of the century seem not to have heard Misirkov’s call for a separate Macedonian national identity; they continued to identify themselves in a national sense as Bulgarians rather than Macedonians.” – US Anthropologist Loring Danforth, “The Macedonian Conflict: Ethnic Nationalism in a Transnational World”, Princeton Univ Press, December 1995 Dear Meglena, How sad you are that you need to biuld your identity by trying to delete our connection to ancient Greeks. Sorry to inform you but our connection is very real. Our language, our geography, our culture and even DNA are a testimonial to that (which has been tested up the ying yang to confirm we have a direct biological link to ancient Greeks albeit inpurely so) “FOUR THOUSAND YEARS OF GREEK HISTORY have produced four Greek heritages, each of which has had an effect on the life of the Greeks in later stages of their history. The Hellenic Greeks received a heritage from the Mycenean Greeks, the Macedonian Greeks from the Hellenic, the Byzantine Greeks received on from the Macedonian Greeks, the Modern Greeks have received one heritage from the Byzantines and a second from the Hellenes.” – The Greeks and their Heritage, AJ Toynbe To the ultra nationalist former Yugoslavians trying to ethnically delete Greeks, I highly suggest you open a history book outside of FYROM. Greeks have lived in Anatolia for millennia, especially along the Aegean coast. For a while, under Alexander, they dominated the land. And for all intents and purposes, the Byzantine Empire was Greek.[.] The first Ottoman census, of 1477, counted half of Constantinople’s population as Greek, and four-hundred years later, even after the Greek War of Independence, it was still 21 percent Greek. – David Lowenthal, “The heritage crusade and the spoils of history. (1998) I am anything but an ultra nationalist. I hate nationalists. But if for you me saying that I am a Macedonian means I am ultra nationalist, that speaks for you, not me. Bigot & a number of other Greeks posting on this thread are by the same ultra nationalist Greek that is paid by the Greek Government to post hatred in the cyber world and create hundreds of You Tube propaganda against the Macedonians. I also found this : note, Macedonia is not Ellada by the Greek map itself. Ljubomir, we can see how much you hate extreme nationalism by repeatedly evading the issue over how did former self-identifying ethnic Bulgarians suddenly become descendents of ancient Macedonians. These Greeks with half of them carrying Turkish surnames dismiss the fact that they may have mixed Turkish & Balkan genes. Almost all of their rulers including X PM Kostas Karamanlis has Turkish roots, while Venezilos above has a Turkish name in his name, yet idiots above keep quoting that they are descendants of somebody 3500 years ago but only a mere 180 years ago they were selling their daughters to Turkish Sultans to get a higher social status & avoid paying the tax that Turks imposed on Christians. Sound familiar? Opa, ultra nationalist fanatics like you should be the last to throw around the word “bigot”. You very well know ancient Macedonians were not Slavs yet today your extremist VMRO government tries to suddenly claim your are descendents of ancient Macedonians? Then you have the audacity to use that hostile propaganda to encourage irredentism against Greece? Here is a link for you that describes the behavior of extremists like you. Opa, As usual, fanatics like you provide empty narratives rather than evidence. Now that Never ceases to amaze how fanatics like you evade the fact your own elected government used to assure everyone you aren’t related to ancient Macedonians. Here is video of your own first President Kiro Gligorov saying that you frauds are not related to ancient Macedonians. No comment? “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an Alexander the Great. ” Greek, I deliberately do not want to discuss part of the history where the truth might hurt you. It is not my intention, and I do not have any right forcing you to believe whatever you want. I welcome the fact that you think that you are descendant of all of that history, and if you noticed I never said that you don’t have a right to call yourself a Greek. and I could, because the name Greek was always a name for the followers of the Greek Orthodox church and not a name of ethnicity. If you wander why your state have chosen name Hellenic for the name of the state, there is your explanations. Greeks never existed as a nation or peoples. Name Greek-Grk is a name for christian merchants speaking the trading language (lingua franca)of the east Mediterranean. And if you wander why very few(maybe none) of the Byzantine emperors are born in present day Greece, there is an explanation for that. And if you wander why the Byzantines never named their empire Hellenic, there is an explanation for that as well. You see my dear friend , you are disturbing the balance of the accepted knowledge in the world by denying the Macedonians. It is not the Macedonians who are disturbing the balance, it is you and people like you who do not have enough wisdom to accept the Macedonian nation, and go on with their lives as descendants of ancient Hellenes. To put it simply you are putting a lot out of balance by trying to prove that Macedonians do not exist, by simply repeating what they thought you in the pre-internet ( pre-information revolution)era. You might be surprised by the truth. Opa, Your ancestors would be so proud of you for shunning your ethnic Bulgarian past. Here is another piece of video evidence for ultra nationalist extremists like you to hide from the world. ‘The idea that Alexander the Great belongs to us was at the mind of some outsider groups only. These groups were insignificant in the first years of our independence. But the big problem is that the old Balkan nations have been learned to legitimize themselves through their history. In the Balkans to be recognized as a nation you need to have history of 2,000 to 3,000 years old. Since you (Greece ) forced us to invent a history, we did invent it.’ (FYROM Foreign Minister Denko Maleski – 1991 to 1993) Calling a Macedonian an Ultra nationalist because I won’t accept a nation of middle eastern minded with genes to match to bully me? Expand the map then? Why is a Greek map excluding ‘Macedonia’ from Greece? Also explain this written by your very own, Nikos Raptis “That the Greeks and the Turks lived side by side for four centuries cannot be ignored. The last name “Karamanlis” (uncle) of the Prime Minister chosen by the US, in the early 50s to “administer” Greece for the US, is Turkish! “Kara” means black in Turkish. Therefore, Karamanlis means: the “Black Ali”. [By the way,the younger Karamanlis, the Amherst educated nephew, Prime Minister of Greece for the last six years, who is thought to be responsible for the corruption and the economic woes of Greece, has not been heard for the last 8 months. They tell us he is “hiding”]. A brief search in the phone directory of Athens revealed the following: – There are about 43,000 entries of Greeks with last names beginning with the Turkish prefix “kara”. – There are about 20,000 entries of Greeks with last names beginning with the Muslim prefix “hadji” . Of course these Greeks are fervent Christians! – There is an unknown (but vast) number of entries of Greeks with last names ending with the Turkish suffix “oglou”, which is the ending of a great percentage of the Turkish last names. The population of Athens is around 4 million people, about half of the total population of Greece. That is one in 40 Greeks has a Turkish last name!” Yes dears, you’re more related to Sultan & his henchman rather than Pericles….but that’s not to say you can’t claim that you have the Parthenon. It’s called migration…. Calling a Macedonian an Ultra nationalist because I won’t accept a nation of middle eastern minded with genes to match to bully me? Expand the map then? Why is a Greek map excluding ‘Macedonia’ from Greece? Also explain this written by your very own, Nikos Raptis “That the Greeks and the Turks lived side by side for four centuries cannot be ignored. The last name “Karamanlis” (uncle) of the Prime Minister chosen by the US, in the early 50s to “administer” Greece for the US, is Turkish! “Kara” means black in Turkish. Therefore, Karamanlis means: the “Black Ali”. [By the way,the younger Karamanlis, the Amherst educated nephew, Prime Minister of Greece for the last six years, who is thought to be responsible for the corruption and the economic woes of Greece, has not been heard for the last 8 months. They tell us he is “hiding”]. A brief search in the phone directory of Athens revealed the following: – There are about 43,000 entries of Greeks with last names beginning with the Turkish prefix “kara”. – There are about 20,000 entries of Greeks with last names beginning with the Muslim prefix “hadji” . Of course these Greeks are fervent Christians! – There is an unknown (but vast) number of entries of Greeks with last names ending with the Turkish suffix “oglou”, which is the ending of a great percentage of the Turkish last names. The population of Athens is around 4 million people, about half of the total population of Greece. That is one in 40 Greeks has a Turkish last name!” Yes dears, you’re more related to Sultan & his henchman rather than Pericles….but that’s not to say you can’t claim that you have the Parthenon. It’s called migration…. meglena All anyone can see here is that you don’t want to discuss the parts of history that will disrupt your fake historical narrative as “Macedonians” For instance, how is your former Yugoslavians claim the right to self-identification an absolute right for yourselves, then go on to do the exact opposite by trying to strip the Hellenic self-identification of ancient Macedonians themselves? Funny logic that. “Men of Athens, that which I am about to say I trust to your honour; and I charge you to keep it secret from all excepting Pausanias, if you would not bring me to destruction. Had I not greatly at heart the common welfare of Greece, I should not have come to tell you; but I am myself a Greek by descent, and I would not willingly see Greece exchange freedom for slavery” Alexander I of? Macedonia, Herodotus, Histories, book 9 You Greeks really have reading comprehension problems. Modern ethnic Macedonians are not the descendents of ancient Macedonians. Neither are modern Greeks. Modern ethnic Macedonians are Slavs. That doesn’t forbid them to call themselves Macedonians, nor does it mean that all Slavs are Bulgarians. Once the modern concept of nation was established, we never identified ourselves as Bulgarians, because they are different. Nobody suddenly became anything. Nation building was a process in the early 20th century for Macedonian Slavs. Kingdom of ancient Macedon isn’t the equivalent of the today’s region of Macedonia. The Republic of Macedonia isn’t all Macedonia. Demographic, political and historical processes led to this point. There is no turning back history and you know it. you can’t accept reality. Therefore you hope for the small republic to crumble and you openly admit it. But I can guarantee it is not going to happen, because injustice only breeds contempt towards you and your cause, less and less people will want to hear your side of the story and you will be seen as a foe and criminals against humanity. Nikos Raptis isn’t an academic. He’s a political pundit that you ridiculously use because he’s a no one that supports you. What funny when you try to suggest Greeks are Turks when the truth is modern Turks were built on assimilation of other ethnic groups (typically through assimilating Muslims. If anything assimilation happened one way (Greeks into Turks). Of course fanatics like you change stories. One day we are Ethiopians, another day Turks, another day Albanains, another day slavs. You keep changing stories just like you have changed into descendents of ancient Macedonians right before the eyes of your sleezy apologists that pretend not to notice your obvious state propaganda and constant claims our country is “Greek occupied Macedonia”. @Ljubomir You state “You Greeks r4eally have reading comprehension problems. Modern ethnic Macedonians are not the descendents of ancient Macedonians.” You seem to be having problems observing whats going on in your own country. We both know that that isn’t what your government and media is teaching your schoolchildren. Indeed I do hope for your pseudo-state built on hatred of Greeks to crumble. Neither you nor your apologists have a moral or intellectual leg to stand on for as long as everyone pretends not to notice Gruevski changing ethnic narrative and irredentism he promotes. We have a right to fight back in self-defense. If you remove the name Macedonia from your region and stop trying to usurp our very identiy, the issue will be over. Pick a name other than Macedonia since you yourself say you are not related to ancient Macedonians. What’s the delay? LOL.. A political pundit? What’s Venezilos then aside from an academic? Stripped you all of pride & dignity and now you have to beg for a euro. Check in his book full of tricks before you accuse us. He is manipulating your pea brains by focussing the Macedonian name as an issue when really it should be focused at how Greece became the EU beggars in the first place…. except his posse , they’re on private yachts while you will be on the inflatable one as an economic migrant heading to Bari! Some Spartans you are…. Dear Greek, The earliest hard copy of the Herodotus Histories is from 900 AD, which is 1350 years after Herodotus wrote them. That is the balance I am telling you about. Do not disturb it if you are not understanding it. I am thinking that a 1360 years were enough time for the story to be made. Don’t you think. Specially if we are talking about history which went through the Latin era where the people as fashion cherished everything from the Ancient Greeks. So my dear Greek. Believe your stories and accept the others. Imagine some guy provide an explanation of your discussion on this site in 3334. Interesting, right ? Ljubomir, You say, “Once the modern concept of nation was established, we never identified ourselves as Bulgarians, because they are different.” In a hundred years “modern” will mean something else. In a thousand years something else. Using empty narratives that try to hide the stone cold hard fact most of FYROM”s ancestors did freely self-identify as ethnic Bulgarians doesn’t change that fact. You language, location, history and even last names are a testimonial to your Bulgarian past. There is no reason to call yourselves Macedonians and cause bad relations with neighbouring states when you full well know you are not “ethnic” Macedonians. For what? Brain damaged megalomaniac former boxer Gruesvki? If you don’t want to go back to calling yourselves Bulgarians thats fine. Pick another name but for goodness sake stop calling yourselves a name that you know will cause conflict with your neighbours. Rest assured the modern Germans would be troubled if Poland started claiming to be ethnic Bulgarians. The modern British would be concerned if France started claimed to be the “real” English and that the british were “occupying England”. There are no excuses for VMRO supporters irreddentism and hostile anti-Greek propaganda. If really didn’t care about nationalism you would pick a name that didn’t intrude on anyone. A Greek,are you implying you are Macedonian?Are you following in the Karamanlis and Droutsas shoes? Droutsas claimed he was born Macedonian and will die Macedonian.Can anyone explane this scenario?How a Cypriot with an Austrian mother be a Macedonian?Karamanlis grandmother was Macedonian who spoke no Greek nor Turkish The Karamanlis clan was Turkish as is Venizelos,and Papulias an Albanian.Just for your info.27 out of 57 modern Greek Prime Ministers were Albanians. Our identity is Macedonian,it is not your identity that you are trying to usurp. John Adams was right to characterize you as follows;”corrupted in their morals to such a degree,as to be faithless,perfidious race,destitute of courage…” Dear meglena, you keep claiming to speak for ancient history but you can’t even report your own ethnic Bulgarian past. You can’t even acknowledge your politicians assured everyone you weren’t related to ancient Macedonians only a few years ago. There are many sources (including inscriptions on ancient artifacts) that attest that ancient Macedonians competed as at ancient Pan-Hellenic sporting events (including the Olympics). At the time to compete not only did you have to consider yourself Greeks but you also had to be recognized as Greek by the other Greeks (which was done by the Hellkenki – literally “judges of the Greeks”) Can you please point us to any evidence that ancient Macedonians identified as Slavs? Peter., Your question is a false one. I am implying Macedonians are Greeks and that you former Yugoslavians are primarily descendents of ethnic Bulgarians. Had you at least been pro-Macedonian rather than slavic we might have accepted you as Macedonians but how can we when you oppose the very Hellenism that ancient Macedonians loved? You (and your apologists) don’t ask simple questions. Like if you now claim to be “Macedonians” why wouldn’t you want to speak some variant of the Greek language of your claimed ancestors? Someone that really cared would want to be able to read the Greek inscription on ancient Macedonian artficts. Do Jewish people prefer Polish over Hebrew? Do English prefer French? Do the Chinese prefer Japanese? And why wouldn’t you call yourselves Hellenes… just like ancient Macedonians did? Why wouldn’t you want to compete as Greeks at the Olympics…. just as ancient Macedonians did. In short, why do oppose everything actually Macedonian? Oher than the statues and state name you are no macedonian than any of your Bulgarian cousins. All you are essentially doing is substituting the word Bulgarian with Macedonian. So it is Gruevski now that is the problem? Hes an extremist and I despise him for adding fuel to the fire, but you caused suffering to this Republic long before him. And you expect not to be hated after all that? You say pick a name, with no regard to our most deep and sacred national feelings, as if this is a lottery game, and you expect to not be hated? You pick a name for your northern province. I hope your country gets obliterated from the face of the earth for all the wrong you did to us. We have the right to call ourselves Macedonians because we lived on the land called Macedonia for centuries, not because of ancient Macedonian kingdom or Alexander the Great, who I couldn’t give the slightest damn about. Peter since you like quoting former American government officials, let me quote you US President Truman administration. (long forgotten words) “This (US) government considers talk of Macedonian “nation”, Macedonian “Fatherland”, or Macedonia “national consciousness” to be unjustified demagoguery representing no ethnic nor political reality, and sees in its present revival a possible cloak for aggressive intentions against Greece” – US State Department Dec, 1944 (Foreign Relations Vol. VIII Washington D.C. Circular Airgram – 868.014/26) Can one Greek like the Turd above prove how Macedonians are Greek? Greeks today continually refuse to participate in any DNA test to conclude their origins. Why is that? Truth be known by these lying, corrupt stealing bigots Can one Greek like the Turd above prove how Macedonians are Greek? Greeks today continually refuse to participate in any DNA test to conclude their origins. Why is that? Truth be known by these lying, corrupt stealing bigots Ljubomir You say… “You say pick a name, with no regard to our most deep and sacred national feelings, as if this is a lottery game” And you picked the name Macedonia as if to say that Greeks have no feelings. You didn’t have to pick fight with us by picking the GREEK name Macedonia. You could have chosen Vardar or any infinite number of names. You wanted to fight to show us all what big important men you are. OPA, We are sorry that fascist manipulators like you refuse to function in the reality you used to call yourselves ethnic Bulgarians. You can cry all the fake crocodile tears of persecution you want to the jerks that pretend not to notice your hostile language and irredentism. For as long as you conscious frauds threaten our homeland with historical gibberish and irredentism we will defend ourselves. Anyone can google “United Macedonia” to find a massive number of references of former Yugoslavians insinuating they are descendents of ancient Macedonians and that Macedonia greece is “occupied”. LOL The frauds of EU trying to write like Plato with their try hard intellectual dialogue. You shake a Greeks hand then you better count how many fingers you have left! Ljubomir, I love how you say you to everyone you are a moderate then go on to day,,, “I hope your country gets obliterated from the face of the earth for all the wrong you did to us.” Thanks for saying aloud what we already knew. Nazi. Ljubomir, We love how you assured everyone here you are a moderate then go on to say… “I hope your country gets obliterated from the face of the earth for all the wrong you did to us.” Thanks for saying aloud what we already knew were your objectives Nazi. You refuse to accept the reality you aren’t “ethnic Macedonians”. You are mostly former self-identifying ethnic Bulgarians that renamed themselves “ethnic Macedonians” in the 20th century. The blame for that is 100 percent on your own shoulders. There isn’t a single Macedonian in ancient Paeonia. Not one. Its a country built entirely on historical fraud and ethnic hatred of Greeks. Greeks can be blamed for our fiancial mess but for this name issue neither you nor your apologists have a leg to stand on for as long as they try to sweep your little propaganda transformation into ancient Macedonians and irredentism under the rug. For my Greek friends;Mario Alinei,Dean Emiritus of the University of Utrecht,Director of several Linguistic Reviews and Progenitor of the Continuity Theory,states;”I have to commence by clearing away one of the most absurd consequences of the traditional chronology namly,that of the arrival of the Slavs into the immense area in which they now live. The only logical conclusion can be that the Southern branch of the Slavs is the oldest and that from it developed the Slavic Western and Eastern branches…Today only a minority of experts support the theory of a late migration of the Slavs. Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians carry only 15.2% of the Slav gene,slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians!They further reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians have the highest amount of the Mediterranean gene of all European people! This was also confirmed by the University of Madrid studies.In a court of Law,it is genetic proof that is conclusive,I might add! Here is a suggestion for the Greeks,how about DNA tests on the remaines of the Royal Macedonian Tombs,uncovered and desecrated by :Greeks” in todays occupied Macedonia?Follow this up with genetic tests on modern Greek and Macedonian population…we will soon see the truth! In summation…Ethnic,yes todays Ethnic Macedonians cannot possibly be of the old Meditarean stratum if they were Slavs arriving in the Balkans in 6th century AD as the 19th century Western construct asserts!! Todays ethnic Macedonians are authocthonous to Macedonia,it is very simple!Their language,unintelligable to the ancient Greeks,was a form of proto Macedonian/Slav,which then spread outward,becoming more complex as it moved further away from Macedonia.Countless proto Macedonia lettes unearthed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia,and no doubt in Pirin and Aegean Macedonia,though the respective occupiers have no doubt concealed them from the World because it does not fit their lies,attest to this fact!” Two Universities reported same findings by sientific research,not by paid historians as you Greeks present. Peter, your sundry “quotes” that muddle your own personal narrative with out of context vague sources is pure quackery. Your DNA claims are especially laughable when your own scientists in Skopje recently concluded a multi-year DNA study that came to the conclusion you are most closely related to Bulgarians and Serbs. (which is hardly surprising given most of you used to call yourselves Bulgarians) “A six-year long DNA research of the Balkan peoples conducted by Skopje Forensics Medicine Institute has showed remarkable resemblance among them.” “The analysis of the data has showed that residents of Macedonia have the most similar DNA with Bulgarians and Serbs” Dear Opa, The irony is you while you hate Greeks, you have become so obsessed with us you are now effectively deleting all traces of your own ethnic Bulgarian past and trying to be Greeks. Something that fanatics like you have missed enitrely (as have the bigots that supported you) now that you’ve suddenly turned into ancient Macedonians — and ancient Macedonians self-identified as Greeks – you are quite unwittingly claiming to be “real” Greeks. I don’t even know what ancient Paeonia is, nor do I care. I don’t need DNA tests to prove how many percent I descend from who from millenia ago, with relation to entities disappeared and completely different in their ideas of nationhood from today’s. All I need is my national feeling of identity and my self identification, what my father told me, what his father told him, and so on. What we were in the 19th century when everybody were Christian Slavs is completely irrelevant, what matters is now. And to open expressions of hope that my country and my people will crumble, I have nothing else to say except that I hope the same for you. If you consider that to be nazi then you must be right, after all, your country is the fatherland of Golden Dawn. You didn’t respond, is Gruevski the problem? When we had the moderate government of Gligorov and no statues of Alexander, were you any more willing to accept our nation? You know the answer to that question; Gruevski is your biggest excuse, but you are still the biggest hypocrites on the planet. The nutsack above quoting Loring Danforth is misquoting him (hello hello a Greek lying?) I have that exact book he is misquoting from. In that quote particularly, Danforth is merely quoting Greece’s issue with Macedonia. In fact, Danforth is on Macedonia’s side. Buy the book & stop copying from a Greek propaganda site. Also note that a Greek woman by the name of Anastacia Karakasidou did research with Danforth on the issue. After this book wS published, she was inundated with death threats from fellow Greeks. They clearly didn’t like what she wrote. They also threaten life like a middle easterner would. Here is what she writes in the book about the villages in the Aegean… “Anastacia Karakasidou”….. “Having spent some time with villagers of the region, Karakasidou (anthropology, Queens Coll., CUNY) maintains that Macedonia is not exclusively Greek, as nationalists claim, but is instead a multiethnic, multicultural region experiencing the political and religious upheavals engulfing the rest of the Balkans. Karakasidou’s obsession with the truth has brought her death? threats, apparently from outraged Greeks.” Oh noes, Macedonia NOT exclusively Greek? No wonder the Greeks put a fatwaoglou on her To ‘A God Damn Greek’ I don’t hate Greeks, I just don’t like Greeks like you Ljubomir. You claim… “We have the right to call ourselves Macedonians because we lived on the land called Macedonia for centuries” You are lying to not only me but yourself. There was no Macedonia under the Ottomans. What is today FYROM was officially made up of Turkish vilayets which were in turn subdivided into sanjaks. The regions that call themselves Macedonia today, were the Turkish Sanjaks of Monastir, Dibra, Skopje and Selanik. It wasn’t until 1944 when Tito renamed the region “Socialist Republic of Macedonia” did it officially become Macedonia. That was the first time in over 1000 years the ancient region of Paeonia was called “Macedonia”. (the last time being the Roman provence of Macedonia Secunda. FYROM nationalist may have lived for a period in the region that was once ancient Macedonia (something we don’t actually oppose) but you didn’t call yourselves Macedonians and the region was officially Turkish for the prior 500 years. Palestinians have lived in Israel for centuries too but you don’t see them claiming to be “ethnic Jews”. You can chose a unique identity for yourselves rather that trying to usurp someone elses. If you want to be “victim” for the sake of conscious lies of politicians you can certainly make that choice. I would prefer to be friends but it takes an honest debate, compromise not hostile propaganda and irredentism. For as long as your 20 year old country attempts to suggest you are related to ancient Macedonians and use that to encourage irredentism against Greece, many Greeks will consider it an undeclared war of extermination against Greeks. We will defend ourselves from ethnic cleansers. “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first elected President of FYROM There is not an identity called “Greek” either if you look from a different perspective.Romans conquered them and came up with the word “Greek”. It meant “foreigner”.It didnt represent any ethnicity or nation.But delusional greeks think they are the descendants of ancient Hellenes LoL. Sir William Ramsey wrote another reality about the Greek (Rum) identity… “Anatolian Greek (Rum) identity is a concept based on RELIGION.IT IS NOT DIRECTLY A NATION.Greeks managed to come together because of Orthodox Church.THERE IS NOT A GREEK (RUM) IDENTITY IN TERMS OF A NATION IN ANATOLIA.” The Greek identity of Anatolian Rums became more controversial with the findings of Prof Manfred Krofman’s archeological works in Troy in 1998.The results clearly showed Trojans were not Greeks and their language was Luvian (an Anatolian language). Opa I am not “misquoting” your pal Danforth you liar. I am quoting him verbatim. Even he admits you used to self-identify as Bulgarians. The only reason he supports you is because he’s a post modernist far leftist nitwit that deconstructs all ethnic narratives as if they are all exactly equal (negating the “minor” fact Greeks identity with Greek things and you with Slavic) Incompetent pomos like Danforth speak about “imagined communities” and “constructed identities” as if nations and history is fiction rather than a very real phenomena. The irony of his approach to nationalism is that given his country of America is built entirely on assimilation, it would give South Americans equal dibs to claim George Washington their national hero, Spanish as “English” and declare the US “Modern American occupied America”. Somehow I suspect most Americans would be concerned if they started to do that. I also believe the modern British would be concerned if France suddenly declared themselves “ethnic English” and Britain “modern British occupied England”. Dear Alexsandar-ski the etymology of variations of the name Greek actually predates the Roman usage. In the classical period Greeks officially were called “Hellenes”. However, Aristotle claims that originally we were called Graikoi (in Meteorologica” I.xiv) As for your point of Greeks being called “RUM”… this was a turkish language name to describe the Greek millet. The Ottomans didn’t officially recognize minorities. (Their method to assimilate local peoples they conquered into “Turks”) They recognized religious millets. In the case of the RUM millet it was a reference to the mostly Greek speaking christians that had been part of the 1000 year Roman Empire that they obliterated in the 15th century. Its not rocket science to conclude Greek speakers living in Greece are related to ancient Greeks but if you have a problem with that I recommend you contact the other Romans of the middle ages… the Holy Romans based in what is today Germany… and tell the modern Germans they are not “real” Germans. I am sure they will respond warmly to your claims. A Greek,you are mistaking my dear fellow,there was no Greece as such during the Roman Empire nor the Ottoman Empire.I suggest to you,go and visit Rome,and a bloc away from the Colloseum you will find three maps on a wall that exists for centuries showing Macedonia on all three maps but Greece is absent,except Crete is shown.Remember Crete was never Greek,it became Greek in 1913 as did part of Macedonia illegaly by pretending to help Macedonia to get rid of the Ottoman Empire. As far as Bulgarian connection to Macedonia is concerned, When Macedonia existed,there was no such nation as Bulgaria,not before 1350.The Cyrilic alphabet was written in around 850AD,therfore,you cannot say it is Bulgarian or by Bulgarians.Of course you Greeks can fabricate anything as you have proven in the 19th century and with the Euro zone.You are masters of fabrications. Sure you don’t hate Greeks. You are only trying to ethnically exterminate us to take on our very identity. (the former Yugoslavians version of “human rights”) Sorry for your identity crisis but its not our fault. its your fault for oppressing evidence of your own ethnic Bulgarian past and calling yourselves Macedonians. It didn’t have to be that way but you choose to give power to crazies like Gruevski and turn yourselves all into “victims”. There are Greeks that unfairly blame foreigners for our economic problems (our own mistakes) You blame us for all your identity problems but that is result of your own choices not ours. There was no need to antagonize us with irredentism and giant Alexander statues to ancient Greek historical figures. You could have chosen another name but instead you decide to chose the path of ethnic cleansers of Greeks. Peter, you seem to be hallucinating words I did not say. You also seem to have forgotten the modern former Yugoslav republic was not called “Macedonia” prior to Tito’s renaming in 1944 and that it was under Ottoman rule for 500 years with officially Turkish names. You keep making ancient claims but fanatics like you can’t even remember what your own government used to tell everyone about your “Macedonian” identity only a few years ago. For as long as you now pretend to be related to ancient Macedonians and threaten our country with Macedonian words games there is no way forward. You made the choice to fight. Poor relations with FYROM is not my desire but if you threaten us we have no choice but to defend ourselves “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first elected President of FYROM “You could have chosen another name but instead you decide to chose the path of ethnic cleansers of Greeks.” Well it will be just like the battle of Chaeronea where Greece tried to conquer Macedonia but was crushed by the Macedonians. The Lamian war was after Alexander’s death where Greece tried to free itself from the clutches of Macedonia. Now, if Macedonia was Greek then why did Greece try to free itself from Macedonia? Common sense & Greek is just like oil to water & Macedonia to Greek Peter, Your claim that Macedonia has been around since antiquity is as absurd as your suggestions that obvious Slavs are related to ancient Macedonians. Here is official 1944 Yugoslav stamp. Please notice there is no “Macedonia” on it. Your entire country was part of the Yugoslav region of Vardar until Tito renamed it “macedonia” in 1944. Prior to that the Ottomans owned the region and it was broken up into Turkish Sanjaks. Here is an another map.. and Ottoman one. You’ll notice there is no Macedonia on it either. Please stop lying. Consciously lying isn’t going to convince us of anything other than you are ultra nationalist frauds. The truth is most of the people in FYROM freely self-identified as ethnic Bulgarians in the 19th century. This is backed up by census evidence from many sources. You say it “it will be just like the battle of Chaeronea”. Not really. In that instance is was self-identifying Greeks fighting Greeks. Alexander spread the Greek culture and language not slavic. This is why it is called the Hellenstic period by scholars around the globe. FYROM nationalists on the other hand oppose anything authentically Greek beyond the name Macedonia and giant statutes to ancient Greek historical figure. You prefer Slavicism. There is nothing wrong with being a Slav but are no more Macedonians than Greeks are Polish. A Greek,I am not hallucinating at all.Durring the Roman Empire Macedonia was called Macedonia,there was no Greece as such.Durring the Ottoman Empire we were called Macedonia,modern Greece was Yunanistan.You always bringing Kiro Gligorov,well let me bring you the high ranking Greek representative at the League of Nations in 1925.Here is what Vasilis Dendramis said to the Serbs and Bulgaria representatives at the meeting on the Treaty of Serves which Greece signed earlier on August 10th,1920.According to conditions of the treaty, under Articles 7,8 and 9,the Greek government was to undertake certain obligations regarding?the protection of the non Greek national minorities in Greece” These Articles specifically stated free use of language and education.The League of Nations directed Greece to fulfill its obligations.By May 1925 an elementary school reader was published in the Macedonian language,it was known as the Abecedar.The Abecedar was to be used by the Macedonian school children.Serbia and Bulgaria protested.Here is what Vasilis Dendramis said by responding at the League of Nations by defending the Macedonian language as being”Neither Bulgarian,nor Serbian but an independent language.”He listed various linguistic maps as evidence to support his claims of the independence of the Macedpnian language.The high ranking Greek official representing the Greek state not only recognized the existance of the Macedonian identity,but openly defended and supported it. So now,since Samaras came with the slogan”Macedonia is Greece”for his personal political life hoping to take over the New Democracy after Mitsotakis reign ends has become an obsesion in Greek politics.This problem has nothing to do with history.Mitsotakis had no problem with the name of the country of Macedonia,his problem was the recognition of the Macedonian minority in Greece. Peter, You are delusional. The only official Macedonia between the 20th century and antiquity was the Roman (Byzantine) Thema of Macedonia.. and that was in Thrace. We recognize a Macedonian identity. We just don’t recognize you former self-identifying ethnic Bulgarians living in what was once the ancient Kingdom of Paeonia as Macedonians. We recognize Greek Macedonians living in Macedonia as Macedonians. Peter, How can we trust anything you say about ancient history when you can’t report history in your own lifetime truthfully? Why do you hide your own government used to assure everyone you are not related to ancient Macedonians? Please stop lying for the sake of extremist brain damaged boxer Gruevski. He has received one to many blow to the head to deal with reality. It will only cause another needless conflict in region. “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first elected President of FYROM ‘We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian.’ – FYROM´s Ambassador to Canada Gyordan Veselinov, Ottawa Citizen Newspaper, February 24 1999 ‘We do not claim to be descendants of Alexander the Great.’ – FYROM’S Ambassador Ljubica Acevshka, speech to US representatives, Washington DC, January 22 1999 At A Greek,you are right,there was no Macedonia because it was partitioned illegaly in 1913 between Greece,Serbia and Bulgaria.Our occupiers do not show Macedonia.Greece never wanted to hear the word Macedonia before 1982. Aegean Macedonia is Macedonia same as the Republic of Macedonia and Pirin and Small Prespa.Has Greece ever showed Aegean Macedonia between 1913 and 1982 as Macedonia?This same year Greece and the Chief of Police of Athens Dimitris Kapelaris devised special Secret Police to threaten the Macedonian population.If you are interested,I can give you the whole protocol number 650217-30427 and the write up of 16th February,1982. All the “recognition” in the world will not change the fact ancient Macedonians self-identified as Greeks. A nuclear equipped unprincipled backstabbing USA cannot change this. Nor can patronizing human rights NGOs that try to skirt the issue of FYROM’s irrdentism and identity quick change. Nor pretentious Greek hating editors of mass media outlets that decided to call FYROM “Macedonia” will change the artifacts . All anyone that calls them “Macedonian” is achieving, in the face of overwhelming evidence of fraud and irredentism, is proving to us the real issue all along was you were Greek hating ethnic cleansing bigots. “Holy shadows of the dead, I’m not to blame for your cruel and bitter fate, but the accursed rivalry which brought sister nations and brother people, to fight one another. I do not feel happy for this victory of mine. On the contrary, I would be glad, brothers, if I had all of you standing here next to me, since we are united by the same language, the same blood and the same visions. ” Alexander addressing the dead Greeks of the Battle of Chaeronea, (as quoted in “Historiae Alexandri Magni”, 6.3.11, by Roman historian Quintus Curtius Rufus.) Dear Meglena, Ljubominar, Peter, and others… You are all trained in the art of falsifying history and seeking to come to posts such as these and playing the victimisation card. You enjoy these pointless back and forth exchanges as you see reasonable and thoughtful people lose patience with you. Moreover, you conveniently seek to take advantage of one loss of patience and seek to represent is narrative of a strong picking on the weak, of a bully harassing a little kid in the playground, of a goody and a baddy, a hero versus a Fallon. These tactics are clear instruments and tools of persuasion they have taught you in your propaganda schools. it is not a coincidence that you seem all to detract from using disparaging words against Greeks in forums such as these. You are quite aware that forceful stances such as these would work counter to your objectives. However, as cunning as you may be, there are limits in this approach and you can “achieve” only so far before you get found out which already have been. Trying to get through to you on an academic level is fraught with the same difficulty as telling a follower of Jehovah that a transfusion of blood may save one’s life. You are permanently poisoned in your minds beyond repair. You behave in a way not dissimilar with the regime in North Korea. You people have been living behind the communist yolk for many years and you still exhibit the same brainwashing as those die hard communists who felt content with their system although there was no food on the table. As Greeks, we know you decent end from the mountainous regions where your ancestors were, for the most part, illiterate goat herders for generations. You took advantage of fortuitous circumstances, copied another’s identity and then began to represent it as your very own. You have become aware of global shifts in political manipulation such as political correctness, minority expropriation, etc and operate with stealth from your offshoots in places like Canada and Australia seeking to rewrite history. It is the universal understanding and recognition of the above that frustrates Greeks such as myself. It has never been a failure on our part to explain the continuity of our Greek heritage or on whether or not the ancient Macedonians have closer affinity to modern day greece or to your Albanian and Bulgarian hybrid nation. Greece should refuse any discussion with you for a negotiated settlement to the name issue as this would be as futile as me trying to talk sense with you. The ultimate solution is to ostracise you from super national organisations such as the EU and NATO and to work assiduously toward your eventual civil war and demise or agglomeration by your neighbours to the west and east. That is all. Dimitrios Peter, Stop lying. There was no Macedonia in 1913. In 1913 the majority of people in FYROM still self identified as ethnic Bulgarians. Prior to the Balkan war the Ottomans owned the region. That’s fact whether you can deal with that reality or not. At A Greek,Macedonians in all four geographic Macedonia are one and same ethnics=Macedonians.The only seperation is the illegal borders since 1913.I am Macedonian from the occupied Aegean Macedonia,Lerin(Florina)my forefathers were Macedonians.The Romans nor the Ottomans forced us to change or forced changes to our identity,names and toponims.Greece is the only country in this worl in the 21st century to continue the denial of our existance.Well,we at least have one part of Macedonia free.It is too bad you Greeks feel as if Macedonia is a thorne in your eyes.It is not us,it is your own fault for fabricating history. Dimtrios, Just as a side note, my biggest concern isn’t FYROM. Even though they are in cahoots with the Turkish government in trying to erase us they wouldn’t dare attack us directly (as it would turn world sympathy to our cause) What I find most troubling now that the former Yugoslavians have turned into ancient Macedonians and keep insinuating Macedonia Greece is occupied, what happened to our alleged allies? NATO appears to be useless. An unprincipled US has clearly betrayed us by pretending not to know they used to militarily support us on this issue. Even our former long time friend the British are behaving like Chamberlain (willing to sacrifice us for peace at all costs). I used to be very pro-EU but unless the EU steps up to the plate to defend us soon (rather than evasively trying to make FYROM part of the EU without first addressing this issue), I sincerely think we should consider leaving it. The EU is supposed to be about friends helping friends. (even after we make mistakes as Greece did with its fiances and Germany did by massacring millions of people during the war) One has to ask, what kind of “allies” collude with extremists trying to exterminate one of the people’s of the EU? Dimtrios, Just as a side note, my biggest concern isn’t FYROM. Even though they are in cahoots with the Turkish government in trying to erase us they wouldn’t dare attack us directly (as it would turn world sympathy to our cause) What I find most troubling now that the former Yugoslavians have turned into ancient Macedonians and keep insinuating Macedonia Greece is occupied, what happened to our alleged allies? NATO appears to be useless. An unprincipled US has clearly betrayed us by pretending not to know they used to militarily support us on this issue. Even our former long time friend the British are behaving like Chamberlain (willing to sacrifice us for peace at all costs). I used to be very pro-EU but unless the EU steps up to the plate to defend us soon (rather than evasively trying to make FYROM part of the EU without first addressing this issue), I sincerely think we should consider leaving it. The EU is supposed to be about friends helping friends. (even after we make mistakes as Greece did with its fiances and Germany did by massacring millions of people during the war) One has to ask, what kind of “allies” collude with extremists trying to exterminate one of the people’s of the EU? Well,well,do you know what you said on your last comment? Durring the Macedonian occupation of City States,durring the 1000 year Roman Empire and 500 year Ottoman Empire there was no Macedonia? Who did occupy the City States from 338 BC till the Roman Empire?.I told you guys,first engage your brain before you engage the gear of your automobile.In translation;put the brain in gear before you open your mouth.I bet you can’t figure out my comment to you. We love how Skopian Nazis like you keep calling our sovereign country “occupied”. Every time fanatics like you do, or you try to claim yourselves descendents of ancient Macedonians, and your sleazeball apologists pretend not to notice… adds moral strength to our position. So by all means keep talking Peter. Peter I keep asking the question but you seem to be having reading comprehension problems. What did your government mean when it used to assure the Greek hating sleazes that backed you that you are not related to ancient Macedonians? “We are Slavs. There’s no connection between us an alexander the Great. ” – Kiro Gligorov first elected President of FYROM ‘We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian.’ – FYROM´s Ambassador to Canada Gyordan Veselinov, Ottawa Citizen Newspaper, February 24 1999 ‘We do not claim to be descendants of Alexander the Great.’ – FYROM’S Ambassador Ljubica Acevshka, speech to US representatives, Washington DC, January 22 1999 Peter, The Albanian population in the FYROM are a good 25% of the population and have a birth rate higher than the Slav average. You must know that a further 5-10% of your population is Gypsy, Pomak (Turcik), Vlach, Serb etc. That only leaves you with a about 65% which is reducing by the day. Furthermore, a reasonable chunk of this 65% self identify as proudly Bulgarian and have no reservations about this. At the end of the day you are left with 50% of your population who themselves are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation Bulgarian with varying degrees of cultural fusion with other Slavs and now regard yourselves as “Macedonian”. Not only you have no national cohesion in your national borders, you fancifully imagine there hordes of many more of you in Greece, Bulgaria, and elsewhere and that somehow your lands are under occupation. Are there any Slav Macedonian wannabes on the moon perhaps? Is the large crater area on the moon perhaps Lunar Macedonia, another subdivision of greater Macedonia? What about in such places as the St George district of Sydney in Australia? What part do imaginary greater Macedonia is that? Pacific Macedonia? Is there any job for me in your propaganda factory… . I”m sure I can come up with some clever material to assist your cause…. Let me know. Dimitrios Dear “a Greek” No matter their self interests and opportunistic manoeuvres, member countries to the EU and NATO have always had their own interests to pursue. I never regarded the Brits or Americans or others as former Greek friends as the concept of “friendship” is alien in political arenas. In any case, I would not play into the hands of nationalist bigots (thieves) and turn my disdain at the EU or NATO. Greece is a member of these two associations and has used its influence to stall certain political overtures by the FYROM. Despite being on the receiving end of criticism of select righteous EU skanks from time to time (Denmark, etc), Greek can and will continue to say NO to NATO and EU enlargement for the FYROM for and until they perpetuate their propaganda. My only fear is that Greek politicians do not betray the Greek cause like that roufiano Mitsotakis and stick a dagger in our backs. Behind the political walls, vested interests come to play and it cannot be ruled out of a Greek politician becoming a traitor. I can almost visualize such a scenario given the political and economic mess the country is in. As for FYROM, the Macedonians in northern Greece are more than match in situation of open combat to defeat these. Other Greeks can just watch from the stand lines and enjoy the spectacle. Regards Dimitrios some good comments and some stupid comments. Let’s solve the problem by logic & science. Do a DNA test on the people………..the greek people will be very interested. They may have to borrow 50 billion euro’s to wipe-out the result. some good comments and some stupid comments. Let’s solve the problem by logic & science. Do a DNA test on the people………..the greek people will be very interested. They may have to borrow 50 billion euro’s to wipe-out the result. some good comments and some stupid comments. Let’s solve the problem by logic & science. Do a DNA test on the people………..the greek people will be very interested. They may have to borrow 50 billion euro’s to wipe-out the result. What I do not understand is how they saw it in their self-interest to support obvious propaganda in FYROM? Do they fail to understand they are potentially sowing the seeds for another major Balkan conflict? That ancient artifacts will not change to match FYROM’s bizarre narrative? They are encouraging xenophobia in Greece. I don’t approve of GD but its hardly surprising given so many quietly collude with FYROM. Do they seriously expect us not to be angry with them while they pretend not to notice FYROM? It’s mystifying that our former allies would go down this path. They have essentially declared an (unofficially) goal to ethnically delete Greeks. Our cowardly politicians (both on the left and right) won’t say it but I will for the NSA record. Those that support FYROM are engaged ethnic cleansing. It an act of war against Greeks. I don’t care how many their numbers or how fashionable it is to bash Greeks today. I consider anyone that calls FYROM “Macedonia” morally complicit. “This (US) government considers talk of Macedonian “nation”, Macedonian “Fatherland”, or Macedonia “national consciousness” to be unjustified demagoguery representing no ethnic nor political reality, and sees in its present revival a possible cloak for aggressive intentions against Greece” – US State Department Dec, 1944 (Foreign Relations Vol. VIII Washington D.C. Circular Airgram – 868.014/26) Vwp, is reading from page 13 of the Artificial Nation Creating & Identity Theft Manifesto. Somewhere between the 3rd and 4th paragraphs commences a false understanding of how DNA technology somehow comes to the rescue. Subjects of the FYROM need not even concern themselves with getting their DNAs analysed as it would be entirely futile and a waste of their money. It is far cheaper and easier to pick up a proper history book and read about your descendants coming to the region in about 600 AD; about a thousand years after the death of Alexander the Great. Do not take my word for it, refer to the admission of your state’s first prime minister Kiro Gligorov. As for DNA you silly people, DNA only provides general and vague markers for the various stages in the evolution of humanity. DNA does not and cannot identify differences in culture and language between neighbouring peoples. If DNA were able to shed such light, it would identify your DNA with that of the original Bulgars and Tartars as well as traces of Slavic blood from the Kiev region. It may also show a resemblance with the livestock in your mountainous regions with which some of you spent some quality time with over many lonely nights and quite days. Dimitrios If you want logic and science to answer the question vwp, then let me recommend you start using it yourself. How about checking Skeletal remain? Some neo-Nazis claim than ancient Greeks were actually nordic. Know of any 5’6″ Swedes and Germans? That was the average height of ancient Greeks, who had a Mediterranean complexion and dark hair. Ever visited Greece? Then you might want to consider the “minor” point that modern Greek dialects are far closer to ancient Greek than modern English is the Runic alphabet “english” spoken by the original British. Culture? Have you paid any attention which region much of you own culture originates from? (hint not your own) Do you seriously believe modern DNA testing hasn’t aready been done on Greeks? As far I know every multi-marker DNA test that has compared modern to ancient Greek DNA shows a direct biological link. Are we pure ancient Greek? No. In fact ancient Greeks themselves were not pure ancient Greeks. So the question of just how Greek are we arises? Let me answer that by redirecting the question and asking what do FYROM and its sleazy apologists have in common with their claimed roots that we don’t have in spades over them? Let me suggest, science and logic isn’t high on the agenda of ethnic cleansing bigots A Greek, I cannot for obvious concerns for my safety tell you in a post like this what is really happening. The US is a giant elephant that has certain vociferous insects buzzing in its ears all the time, telling it what to do and how to act. The enemy for most Americans lives within its borders… It is the well know intricate networks of lobbyists that work to undermine others in a proxy war where an advantage can be obtained. There are numerous areas in our world where the effects of the known lobbyists are taking place… Political correctness, minority rights, etc are instruments that are employed by certain ultra nationalist minorities who are at the helm of Wall Street and in the houses of power…. I need not elaborate further and unmask these people, suffice to say Greece and Greece’s national interests are held hostage to the back room dealings alluded to about all worts of issues and matters in the world as affecting the Middle East, etc etc… You need not look into this complex web from an emotional standpoint and seek solidarity in our so called allies. Also, you need not give these FYROManians too much credit… they are not capable of single handedly influencing others, it is just that have come to ride this wave for as long as it serves their irredentist aspirations…. In other words, they are riding the gravy train where the driver is a …….. (You can guess). Dimitrios “As for DNA you silly people, DNA only provides general and vague markers for the various stages in the evolution of humanity. DNA does not and cannot identify differences in culture and language between neighbouring peoples.” This is exactly right Demetrious. Pseudo-scientist like vwp depending on “DNA” to “prove” identity is just one more sign of neo-Nazism in FYROM. We have our Gold Dawn. They have crypto-fascist supporters of Gruevski. While DNA testing shows we are genetically related to ancient Greeks it isn’t in some pure racial sense. (as we also have markers shared by other regional peoples as well). However this is also true of the ALL the people of the world not only Greeks. The funny thing is FYROM nationalists keep talking about DNA, when the fact is scientists in their country did DNA testing that suggested they are far more closely biologically related to Bulgarians and Serbs than ancient Macedonians. I agree with much of what you say but the support of FYROM was still illogical. They clearly didn’t anticipate FYROM would start Hellenizing themselves and deleting evidence of their own ethnic Bulgarian heritage. That miscalculation is actually one of the few things that make me optimistic about the situation. Lets assume no major border changes happen. If you extrapolate forward a few centuries of FYROM nationalists trying to “prove” they are the “real” Macedonians by adopting more and more Greek customs. Eventually, when the hate cools, won’t they want to be able to read the Greek inscription on ancient Macedonian artifacts rather than pretend they can? What is the end result in FYROM? All we need to do is egg on anyone that attempts to usurp Greek history as frauds. Empiricism seems to shows they will try their hardest to prove otherwise by adopting Greek customs. It’s uncertain but plausible we can turn the very forces that tried to casually wipe us out against them by using this technique. Delete them as they have tried to delete us (and not only against FYROM. Anyone that supports them) ??? ??? ?????; ??? ???????; ?? ?????? ?????; ??? ????? ?? ????? ???. ??? ????????? ??? ?????? (??????????) , ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??????. ??? ????????? ??? ?????? (??????????) , ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??????. Then thelo na po actrivos yiati alee thiavazoun. Fenete oti katalavenis kala ti yenetai. Harika poly pou melisame. You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 2 (updated: Prime Minister David Cameron raged against the EU's appalling behaviour during his press conference. [James Crisp] A furious David Cameron today (24 October) vowed the United Kingdom would not pay the €2.1 billion bill it was handed by the European Union last night. The British Prime Minister branded the demand for a top-up to the UK’s contribution to the EU budget “an appalling way to behave”, which “certainly didn’t help make a strong case for Britain to remain in the EU.” But he also said that preventing binding targets at national level on energy efficiency and renewables, and securing €1 billion euros in aid for Ebola-hit African counties, proved that the UK could “lead and win in Europe”. The European Commission has begun a revision of EU budget shares. Because of the relative strength of its economy to the rest of the EU, the UK has by far the largest payment, due on 1 December. “I am not paying that bill on the 1 December,” Cameron told a packed press conference in Brussels, “If people think I am, then they have another thing coming.” The €2.1 billion is equal to a fifth of the UK’s annual transfer to Brussels. Other countries, such as Germany, and France – which has struggled to balance its budgets – will get rebates under the plans. In a possible swipe at France, Cameron said, “There are threats to the British economy from slow growth in Europe. Countries need to make structural reforms we made.” An emergency meeting of EU finance ministers will be held to discuss the bill. The row today led the British news agenda, just weeks before a high profile by-election that will be scrutinised for evidence of rising Euroscepticism. “We will challenge this in every way possible,” he said. “We are (a) leading member of this association [the EU], and you do not join an organisation that hits you with a bill in this way,” he blasted. While other countries, such as the Netherlands, were also hit by demands for payment, the UK’s proposed contribution is by far the largest. Cameron forced the issue onto the agenda of today’s summit on the economy. He said that Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had, with other leaders, backed him. “He [Renzi] said it wasn’t a figure but a lethal weapon,” said Cameron, who repeatedly thumped on his lectern to make his point. According to Cameron, Renzi went on to say it was precisely things like this that leads people to think the EU was “stuffed with people with no heart or soul.” Cameron said he was supported by the Italian, Dutch, Maltese, Greek “and other” leaders in the fight against the budget share revision. “According to the Commission, this is an estimate, and not the final figure. We need to make sure that the Commission starts answering questions,” he said. There had been adjustments before in the past, and sometimes you pay more and sometimes less, Cameron said. “But it has never been the case that a €2 billion euro bill has suddenly been presented like this. It’s an appalling way to behave. I’m not paying that bill. It’s not going to happen,” he added. Asked about the issue at the press conference yesterday night, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he knew nothing. During today’s press conference of the UK Prime Minister, it emerged that the UK Treasury had heard about the demand before Cameron, who only found out about it last night. The demand was then leaked to the One reporter asked if the story was a gift to the UK Independence Party, as voters prepare for the by-election sparked by Conservative MP Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP. Cameron said it didn’t help the argument for British membership before pointing to the decisions on Ebola and the EU 2030 Climate and Energy targets. He said he remained in favour of the UK staying in a reformed EU. The 20 November by-election results will be scrutinised for signs of traditional Tory voters moving over to the hard-line Eurosceptic party. A victory for UKIP will up pressure on Cameron to toughen his stance on the EU in the run-up to next year’s general election in May. The Tory leader has promised a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in 2017, if the Conservatives are elected. The UK European elections were held the 22 May, coinciding with local elections in England and Northern Ireland. A total of 73 MEPs were elected. The Conservatives, the party currently in governing coalition with the Liberal Democrats, were pushed into third place for the first time in a European Parliament election, the same position as Labour in the previous 2009 European Parliament election. It was also the first time since 1984 that the largest opposition party failed to win the European Parliament election. The UK Independence Party UKIP won 32.88% of the vote and 24 MEP seats. The Labour Party came second with 27.4% of the vote and 20 MEP seats. The Tories came third with 26.03% of the vote and 19 MEP seats. The Green Party of England and Wales obtained 3 MEP seats, the Scottish National Party obtained 2, The Liberal Democrats and four smaller parties obtained one seat each. The UK national elections will be held next year in May. David Cameron has promised a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in 2017, if the Conservatives are elected. There was a fundamental change in the way the EU calculates GDP figures, now it may be acceptable to live off the proceeds of Prostitution & Drugs trade in some countries but it is not acceptable in the UK. If the UK is expected to pay tax to the EU based on such figures this must surely be put to the “Promised Referendum” for approval by the electorate or to leave the EU? It is a fundamental change in our relationship the EU is legitimising the Drugs Trade & Prostitution by acknowledging. Well that’s your view – but not that of UK gov appointed people who negotiated the whole thing (in Sept 2014) and then passed it to the EC who crunched the numbers. I suggest you write to a bloke whose address is 10 Downing Street London – and complain. I am certain he will have a good answer. If not, his mate at No 11 might. Meanwhile, as the UK PMs car drove away from the EU summit – toys could be seen being thrown out of the window haaaahahaha. There is something I don’t understand about UK political leaders. Why do they accept EU decisions and then dismiss them afterwards. If other member states managed to negotiate successfully at EU level, why not UK? I don’t think that UK leaders are foolish or naive. l But who are they trying to fool then? Such a shame. The behavior stems from the English public school tradition of leaving homework or “prep” to the last possible minute and then cramming for exams. Can anyone tell me what exactly the EU will do if the UK government refuse to comply to EU demands. Invade us? Bomb us? Send all their undesirables? swamp us with immigrants? Demand money from us? What’s the problem if we say “Get lost”? if the UK government refuse to pay the contributions it owes (because it underpaid in past years as per the ONS GNI statistics), without providing proper explanation for it, then the Commission is entitled to fine the UK (in addition to the outstanding contribution). (time period : 1 to 6 months) failure to pay the fines + contributions would lead the Commission to report the UK to the ECJ, who would reconfirm the procedure and warn that failure to pay, could lead to the UK temporary voting rights suspension, til compliance (time period 3 to 6 months later) and the nuclear option : suspension of rights to the Single Market. it wouldn’t prevent trade, but it’d make it a lot more expensive for UK based companies to trade (sell/buy) with the rest of the EU. (more like 1 year later) that would make many manufacturers reconsider their logistics (locations in Central and Eastern Europe, even Turkey would be way cheaper), and UK consumers would see sharp rises in inflation. retailers don’t buy European products because of the EU, but because it’s cheaper/better quality than their competitors, therefore, whether they change suppliers or not, it’d lead to an increase in costs and/or decrease in quality … in short, it’s going to be way more expensive if Cameron wants to play hard ball and that is nothing to say about undermining the so-called “reform” mantra of the UK government. by now, other EU countries have plainly understood that when the Tories talk about reform of the EU, they don’t mean “for the benefit of all”, but instead “for the sake of our own electoral fortunes, and stuff it the other countries” Best regards, The drug and sex trade are by definition black market activities, which means that the government does not get any revenue from them. It’s a bit hard to see how this could be added to a nation’s GDP, or to support any other calculation. Other then that, Cameron is just doing his usual angry, agitated stage strutting to keep the support with the folks at home, all howling with discontent. erm…. I think you will find that like other UK serfs, prostitutes pay both Nat Ins and taxes – there have been some entertaining court cases in the UK on the subject. Oddly, having put my head out of the window I did not hear much howling – although there was discontent down at the Stuffed Pheasant that the UK is represented by what appears to be a tomato with high blood pressure – still you get what you vote for. Indeed, i stand corrected, cheers ANOTHER SPIN? GOOD NEWS! BRITAIN IS RICHER THAN WE REALISED… Look at it this way: we pay tax on a percentage of our income. In the same way, our ‘tax’ or ‘contribution’ to the European Union is partly based on Gross National Income – calculated at about 1% of GNI. If we under declared our personal income to the Inland Revenue, we’d have to pay more tax – and no doubt a late penalty fee too. British treasury officials calculated and agreed with the European Commission that, actually, the country had under declared its income for the years 2002 to 2013. Of course we’d have to pay more as a consequence – this was the formula we agreed. What did our government expect the response to be? That Britain is a special case, and we don’t have to follow the rules that other EU countries accept? On the other hand, if the rules are not being evenly and fairly applied across the EU, then yes, our political leaders need to complain, but preferably with more light than heat. The EU expects us to now pay income tax on income we don’t actually get, ie, the proceeds of Crime. Is the EU legitimising Crime? perhaps we should include piracy? or IRA activity, extortion & home brewing? It’s ludicrous to have accepted this formula in the first place It’s even more ludicrous to have it back dated, does the EU think it’s the criminal assets bureau? We should simply declare that we have stopped all such activity & go back to a formula that suggests we have stopped all crime & any proceeds sequestrated by the CAB are the only declared income after the costs of policing & prosecution have been offset. I was talking about the change to include crime in GDP was a grab for cash by the EU months ago when it was first announced, am i more intelligent than the Prime Minister & his government? Is Whitehall & the treasury short of grey matter? They are lying if they say they didn’t see this coming down the line either that or they are too stupid to hold public office. Whatever the rules, they were not imposed on us, they were agreed by the UK and other member states. We have to stop blaming the EU for “imposing” rules that we agreed to. If the rules are absurd, we should be able to use our influence and vote to change them. My fear is that the way our political leaders are handling this, we are rapidly losing influence across Europe, which by default may result in us losing any vote – because we’ll be out of the EU and not in it. Whatever the rules, they were not imposed on us, they were agreed by the UK and other member states. We have to stop blaming the EU for “imposing” rules that we agreed to. If the rules are absurd, we should be able to use our influence and vote to change them. My fear is that the way our political leaders are handling this, we are rapidly losing influence across Europe, which by default may result in us losing any vote – because we’ll be out of the EU and not in it. I dont know anyone that wants to be a member & I know a lot of people, Work, Cricket Club, Golf Club, Village Pub no one I speak to wants to be in the EU Joe, I don’t deny that your own experience is true, but it’s somewhat anecdotal. I know many thousands of people who want to stay a member of the European Union – including me! What’s more, the latest opinion polls are showing more people want us to stay in the EU than out – especially if there is some reform. I am not blind to some of the problems of the management of the world’s biggest single economy – I doubt it will ever be perfect. I am often also critical of the management of the UK – as we all should be; it’s healthy to be critical and to hold our political masters to account. However, just as I wanted Scotland to stay a member of our Union of the United Kingdom, for many of the same reasons, I want the United Kingdom to stay a member of the European Union. We shouldn’t quit, but play a leading role in reforming the EU to ensure it’s a club from which all members clearly benefit. As this must have been agreed by a majority of nations can the Commission advise how proceeds from Prostitution and Narcotics are established and subject to audited accounts? Perhaps the EU auditors could advise? We are providing a platform for those who want to join this profession. Jon Danzig bearing in mind we have had a property in Spain long before Spain was in the EU & I am currently on holiday in Mallorca & have had holidays across Europe & well beyond all my life & would expect to do so with my passport regardless of our EU status why do you feel you need to be a member of such an expensive club that we have to borrow to be a member of? In what way do we have to borrow to be a member of the EU? I believe that the membership fee represents very good value for all the benefits we enjoy as a result of being in the EU, including access to free trade with the world’s biggest single market, and by far our most important export market. Outside of the EU we would still trade with Europe, but that trade would be much more complicated and expensive, subject to customs duties and red tape. (Unless we want to be like non-EU members Norway and Switzerland, who have to accept most of the Single Market rules of the EU, and pay a sizeable contribution to the EU budget every year, but have no vote or say in the running of the EU. I wouldn’t want that for the UK). More British people live in Spain than Polish people live in Britain. Under the EU arrangements, British citizens living in Spain cost the Spanish health care system about £240 million a year. Out of the EU, I doubt there will be such easy ‘free movement’ of people across Europe; we’d be going back to a system of residency and work permits. Britons actually makes more use of ‘free movement of people’ across Europe than any other EU nationality. Britain exports more people across Europe than any other country in Europe. So, yes, it will be British people who also lose out if we end free movement across our continent. I have written an article on why I am in favour if Britain’s continued membership of the EU, even though I voted NO in the first referendum: ‘The value of being citizens of Europe’ We are borrowing money every day billions a week so to pay a £1.7 billion bill we would have to go to the markets again & borrow even more than we had budgeted to do. Yes, but every month UK exports to EU are worth about £12 billion… all free trade which would be expensive and more complicated if we left the EU. Furthermore, the new EU migrants here – and only here because of the EU – make a massive POSITIVE net fiscal contribution, calculated at around £22 billion from 2001 to 2011. During the same period, native Britons made a NEGATIVE net fiscal contribution of about £624 billion. So, without EU migrants here, and without EU free trade, we would have to borrow many billions more. My vote is to stay – we’d be considerably poorer as non-members of the EU, even taking into account the 1% of our GNP we pay towards the EU budget. Imports of food would be much cheaper sourced outside of the EU so the weekly shop would be reduced helping inflation, we run a massive trade deficit with the EU so any trade war we would actually benefit massively by imposing tariffs & German imports are cars would become much more expensive as would the imports of French wines & Cars. We would however probably have to remove our military from EU territory but that may actually be a benefit to us by positioning our forces on our own territories. I’m sure there would be pros and cons to leaving the EU, although I feel the disruption of disentangling ourselves could last many years before things settled again. Also, we enjoy hugely beneficial trade deals with countries across the world through our membership of the EU. It’s often said that in negotiations, you get the best deal if you’re the same size or bigger than the party you’re negotiating with. The EU is the world’s biggest single market; bigger than the USA, bigger than China. It’s because of the EU muscle that it’s able to win hugely advantageous trading deals with the world’s countries. It was also because of EU muscle that it was able to bring to an end expensive mobile phone roaming charges across EU member states. No single nation working alone could achieved that. Do you really think that Britain, sans EU, a country barely the size of Florida, would be able to negotiate the same excellent trade deals with the world’s countries as we can achieve through our membership of the EU? I think we’d be out at sea. The last time we were a country on our own was hundreds of years ago. Before we joined the European community, we had an Empire, but it was in rapid decline which is why we applied to join the EEC in 1961, and why Churchill supported that application. In the modern world, Britain will not be Great again on its own. We belong with our fellow allies on our continent, Europe, and we should now work hard to be leaders of the EU, and not leavers. Why is it good to be an EU citizen ? For instance, if you get really sick in Spain, you will be able to treated for FREE. And most member states you don’t have to wait for ages to see a specialist like in the UK. I know several Englishs who go abroad mainly because they are not happy the NHS. And it’s not just about healthcare. EU citizenship is also a huge gain when you work or study abroad. Regarding trade, I just remind that import duties are lower in average now than before joining the ECC. Congratulations to the Euro morons, they have helped the UK exit campaign immensely. Cheers guys! ;o)) erm… which “euro morons” – it was the member states in Sept 2014 that decided on the rules – the EC then just crunched the numbers based on the rules agreed (by MS) and numbers submitted by each member state. Are you saying that the member states are “euro morons” does that include the UK – or is it specific to the UK PM and Gidiot (towel folder, mate & finance minister who knew two days before PM ?)- just asking. Socialism at its best (worst) Take from those who de well in class and give to those who can’t be bothered. Glad to see the Dutch contesting this. They might have better chances of success than the Brits @Jon Danzig You claim that because we are in the EU we receive significant net fiscal benefits from EU migrants. Could I have your source. UKIP argues for an Australian type visa arrangement so that the UK can select migrant workers from the EU. Were that possible the UK could exclude low wage low skill workers. The argument that the UK benefits financially from admitting low wage/low skill EU workers is not credible. The impact of young low wage workers on government finances will be positive before they have children. Once they have children the costs of school places, medical care and child allowances changes the calculations dramatically. Plus the state will have to pay pensions and medical care in old age. It may be, of course, that the net benefits of staying in the EU are still positive even taking account of the cost of low skill/low wage EU workers. My sources are those contained in the report below. Thanks for your comments, @A Londoner. Here is one of the sources about EU migrants providing a net fiscal benefit to the UK, from the Department of Economics at University College London: The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK: And this is a recent article by immigration expert Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and former chief economist at the Cabinet Office: He wrote: “More immigrant workers does increase the supply of labour. But, because immigrants earn money, spend money, set up businesses and so on, it also increases the demand for labour. And it’s true that, if an immigrant takes a job, then a British worker can’t take that job – but it doesn’t meant he or she won’t find another one that may have been created, directly or indirectly, as a result of immigration. So immigration may have a negative or positive impact on jobs and wages for British workers; so far, the evidence suggests that the direct impacts have been rather small. “Over the longer run, however, the indirect impacts are likely to be larger, and here the evidence suggests that the impact is likely to be positive.” Must be right then if the EU is citing academic economic papers from UCL and the Guardian. Please give me strength. My dog could give better economic advice! The problem is that these EU immigrants tend to be poorly suited to the UK economy & take low paid employment which contributes very little financially to the exchequers revenue. They take jobs that the less academically able UK citizens would take or that students would take to help them through university. They are good for business as they swell the pool of labour, cheap low tax generating labour & they keep those wages maintained at a low point because there is an ever growing pool of cheap labour ready and willing to flood in from the EU. These people if they pay tax at all pay at the lowest rates with the first £10k being exempt from tax. They put additional pressure on all services from Schools, Health, Transport Infrastructure, Housing & Benefits. We can argue till we are black & blue but these are facts & however they colour the figures at schools of economics which seem to be populated by pro EU socialists. I have a degree in economics I was about 1 in 20 in my class that was pro Thatcherite. actually, that’s just simply untrue half the immigration to the UK comes from the EU, the other half from the rest of the world (mostly ex-colonies in Africa and Indian sub-continent) work agencies and businesses only have praises for Europeans coming to work in the UK, because they are markedly over-qualified for the jobs that they are willing to take and professionals. they might lower down some wages, but that also means more profits for firms, thus allowing for more employment, investment and lower customer prices. by and far, European coming to work in the UK, do it in an open and transparent way. pay their taxes and respect the laws, financially contributing more to the economy and the UK Treasury than they take out … that is unlike the natives who are comparatively more likely to indulge in criminality and cost more to the budget (more pensioners at home and abroad to pay). in addition, all the critiques you used, would be better off directed at immigration in the UK from the rest of the world, who very often fake their student activity or overstay their visa, if not “disappear” into their communities taking low-paid, undeclared jobs. Best regards, @Jon Danzig The particular article I had in mind is the one above which adjusts the UCL College estimates. I do not think the revised estimates justify the “massive POSITIVE” fiscal claim for EU immigration that you make. Plus the raising of tax thresholds further reduces the fiscal benefit of low wage employment. I would also argue that the academics who often make these claims normally choose to ignore the social impacts of migrant employment. I shared an office with an (non-EU) migrant who was an interesting, totally fluent in English, iranian refugee. Working with migrants to a low wage worker means that his boring low paid job in the chicken factory becomes even more boring because he cannot chat or joke with his fellow worker who speaks fluent latvian and russian but little English. Thank you for your further comment @A Londoner. UCL College has robustly defended its research against the criticisms of Robert Rowthorn, however I agree with challenging all sources of information, in the hope that we can eventually get closer to the truth. Your own personal experience though is somewhat anecdotal. We have many very highly skilled workers here from the rest of the EU; I am unsure why the media mostly only comment about the low skilled workers. For example, there are over 4,000 Romanian doctors and nurses working in our NHS, and our health service would collapse without foreign born workers. Most EU migrants here are in gainful employment and are here to do jobs, often ones that employers such as farmers and caterers find extremely difficult to fill with local labour (ask them!) In any event, there is no future for low skilled work in the modern world. Isn’t the real problem not too many foreign workers, but a huge shortage of skills in this country? Over the next decade, with the advance of technology, it’s likely that almost all unskilled jobs here will disappear. Companies today are looking for highly educated employees and that trend will continue. We need to spend considerably more on ensuring that this country represents a high-skilled, highly-paid workforce. We cannot compete in the world on the basis of low skills and low pay. Those unskilled labourers from eastern and central Europe will eventually go home (because, actually, many of them are skilled and the economies of their home countries will recover and eventually thrive). I welcome immigrants here. I believe they add considerably to our economy, culture and society. See my article, Clacton and the politics of fear The UCL was not the only report; last July the government also published its own findings on the impact of migrants in low skilled work in the UK: At 356 pages it’s quite a read calling on multiple sources of evidence. Many employers told the government’s inquiry that migrants were not taking the jobs of UK-born workers but filling the gaps in employment that many UK-born workers were not willing to fill. I also agree with one of the report’s conclusions that not enough is being done to enforce minimum pay. Apparently, a typical employer can expect a compliance visit just once in every 250 years and a prosecution once in a million years. Your comment with respect to 4,000 Romanian doctors & nurses in the NHS – well perhaps that is needed in the UK, but the problem in, for example, Belgium is that plenty of Doctors and nurses are trained – but at the end of their training they have extreme difficulty getting their license – because of the….. large numbers of Romanian doctors in Belgium. This info came from a friend who is a Belgian doctor and runs a large hospital. Key point: intra-EU migration is chaotic and needs management, in the same way that, for example, the EU’s financial sector needs better management, ditto tax shopping etc. The current crop of politicos (Moron-con and the chief Kipper amongst them ) are clueless, the best they can do is sound-bites – hence the “interesting” fix we are in. the main thrust of Civitas’s think tank on immigration, is not that it’s “bad” per se, but that public investments in health, education and housing must keep up this is where the UK government has been a failure : it prefers to fire up house prices by holding up social investment, do tax cuts for the wealthiest and increase pensions for the grey Tory vote , rather than actually help communities integrate and develop. it’s short-time electoralism which then rears its ugly head in form of populism and xenophobia by a largely right-wing press best regards, I agree; with the net fiscal benefits provided by EU migrants here, there should be sufficient funds to ensure that no one area feels under undue pressure. It’s interesting to me that in the main, only the UK government is complaining about free movement of labour, but although there are also some problems for the other 27 EU members, none of them are threatening to end the principle of free movement or even to leave the EU. After all, there are problems for Poland resulting from free movement, as they have lost many of their best workers to live in the rest of the EU, but even so, the Polish government strongly endorses free movement and doesn’t want to see it tampered with. It also needs to be acknowledged that there are about as many British people living in the rest of Europe as migrants from the rest of Europe living here. If they swapped places, the population of Britain would still be about the same as it is now (but probably with a much older population in the UK, who would need looking after… but by who, exactly?) You really wonder why that is? Do you think anyone else could cope will nearly a million Poles landing on your doorstep? We have assimilated enough peoples to populate a city the size of Birmingham, next time you fly into Birmingham airport look out of the window & see how many houses there are there. If the EU was funding the enormous cost to the UK like it funded the unification of Germany there may be another response from the electorate. Non EU arrivals tend to be Fee Paying Students & high wage high tax paying earners like doctors or entrepreneurs who create employment & wealth & pay taxes. back in the 60s, France housed a million of its citizen from Algeria in a year following independance, at a time, when its population was only 2/3 of current UK pop in addition, the “800k” poles figures were over several years, and most only came to work temporarily (leaving, then replaced by other migrants in a roll-over) Britain didn’t explode because of it, and wealth was generated for all around (as this news story purports to show) as per UK stats, there are less 600k poles currently residing in the UK, with annual EU migration to the UK between 200k-300k (that is excluding tourists) Best regards, Well, we will have to agree to disagree – a good British value \U0001f642 We do not have a million Poles living in Britain, it’s about half that number, and the number of Britons living in the rest of the EU almost matches the number of EU migrants living here. There are more British people living in Spain than Polish people living in the UK. And those Poles here are mainly young, fit, in gainful employment and making a net fiscal contribution to our economy. Many of the Britons living in Spain are pensioners and overall the one million Brits living there cost the Spanish health service about £249 million a year (after insurance and UK charges). Furthermore, free movement works both ways: at on stage in the past year, there were more British people claiming unemployment benefit in Germany than Polish people claiming it in Britain. Furthermore, there are 1.5 million Poles living in Germany, much more than in the UK. All the reports I have read show that EU migrants here make a considerably greater fiscal contribution than non-EU migrants. Parts of England and Wales with many east European migrants have seen a drop in property crime and no increase in violence, according to researchers at the LSE and University College London. I do agree with you though that there needs to be considerable new investment in parts of the UK which are caught in a trap of poverty and deprivation. But I don’t blame immigrants for that. If the immigrants went home, those problems would still be there – and a lot of new ones too. “The number of Britons in EU almost matches …………” This one is always trotted out but it is not so. According to below 1M to 2.6M I suspect the major issue is not the precise impacts but the principle. A fundamental feature of a sovereign country is the ability to control its borders and we gave that up when we signed the Treaty of Rome but 40 years too late we have just realised that. For me the biggest problem is that the ability to recruit EU workers has led to a lack of focus by employers and government on the poor educational standards of the British workforce. Even though the government is trying to tackle that problem the EU connection is going to be a difficulty. We cannot discriminate against EU workers in awarding advanced apprenticeships so when the word gets out British youngsters will be in competition with much of the EU for apprenticeships. No problem for business though. The numbers are changing all the time. And they are all estimates, but in the main, there are almost as many Britons living in the rest of Europe as Europeans from the rest of Europe living in the UK. See my article, “The free movement of people – it works both ways” which gives the numbers as 2.2 million Britons living in the rest of Europe and 2.3 million citizens from the rest of Europe living here. It was Winston Churchill who promoted the idea of free movement across our continent. I don’t think we have enough free movement. I want it to be as easy to move from London to Lyons as it is from London to Leeds. Yes, we can leave the European Union, but I will vote to stay and I hope to persuade others to as well. With regard to competition for jobs, yes that’s true, but it’s not a one way street. British people have the entire continent now as their jobs market. That presents tremendous opportunities. And as the economies of Poland and Romania and the other ex-Communist countries grow, I can imagine our young people going there for work and experience. Let’s not restrict our European market. Can you imagine if people in Leeds were only able to seek jobs in Leeds? We can now live, work, study, retire or do business in any other EU country. Let’s promote imagination and enterprise, and encourage our young to explore Europe and grasp the opportunities. The UK got rid of Churchill as soon as the war was over that shows the level of esteem that he was held in. It’s pointless referring back to someone who was dead a few years after I was born, we might as well say look King John would have done it this way Or Queen Victoria did a good job at the helm maybe we should follow her example? We are where we are with professional politicians who live to be re-elected & follow their voters rather than leading & creating a more prosperous country that is safe & secure for its citizens Since Churchill is regarded as one of the Founders of the European Union and he supported our application to join the EEC in 1961, I think what he said and promoted is relevant today. Furthermore, Churchill is still revered as one of our greatest leaders and he was elected as Prime Minister in the 1951 election. We are the world’s sixth richest economy so we’re not doing too badly as members of the EU. It was felt necessary to join the European community because our previous prosperous ‘single market’ – the Empire – was in steep decline and dying. We don’t want empires anymore but we do need access to today’s biggest, single market, the EU. On our own as a little country barely the size of Florida, I think we’ll be poorer and with much less influence in the world. That’s not what I want. Our wealth doesn’t come from the EU we lose £65 billion a year on that trade deal, we do run a good surplus with the rest of the world though, we will never get a decent deal from the EU while services & utilities are not in the single market in all the countries that matter. You have to agree we give access to the UK market place to all the biggest companies from France, Italy, Spain & Germany but or biggest companies are blocked because services despite over 40 years of trying are still not included. Much of what we export of any value to the EU merely passes through the EU via Rotterdam & Antwerp & much of the rest is high value items like Aero engines & wings that EU countries can’t really do without & ARM chips & pharmaceuticals which they are hardly going to say no to are they? We can do without German cars & French wine if we have to or Italian Yoghurt, Pasta & Milan couture “utilities” – Thatcher – who you probably worship sold all those off – and with the exception of SSE – all are foreign owned (that was clever) . “ARM chips” – ARM does not make chips – it designs them – for companies across the globe – most not in the EU. “we lose £65 billion a year” & that would be based on? Thatcher’s actions opened the UK market to Euro entrants – who were happy to get into the UK – whilst keeping their markets closed. That was clever – tell me did you vote for the dumb bitch & her polices? whilst now whining about their outcomes? PS The Migration Observatory at Oxford University has estimated that at least 1 million UK-born people were living in other EU countries in 2011 by analysing census data from all the other EU countries apart from Belgium and the Netherlands. The Institute for Public Policy Research had previously produced a larger estimate of 1.8 million UK nationals living in other EU countries for at least a year, rising to 2.2 million for at least part of the year. This is slightly different from the Migration Observatory estimate as it refers to the number of UK nationals, not the number born in the UK. This question was dealt with in response to a Parliamentary question earlier this year: “We cannot discriminate against EU workers in awarding advanced apprenticeships” I part own a UK company, we employ apprentices, I can & I do discriminate in favour of UK citizens & pray who is going to stop me? (we do the same with respect to employees – unlike some of the more senior members of the Kipper party). I can find 10 reasons why a Uk citizen is better than a non-UK citizen & nobody will be able to say otherwise. We also pay people just starting twice the minimum wage (which nobody – I repeat – nobody can live on). & just for the record – the company has been in business for nearly 20 years. Employing non-UK citizens (or not) is a decision any company can make, there are plenty of talented Brits in the UK, it’s not always easy finding them but we do – we just have to work harder finding them. @Mike Parr with equivalent qualifications for a job, you can not officially discriminate based on gender, race, nationality … that doesn’t mean, discrimination is non-existent or never applied … so long as it’s not reported or done is an ostentatious way. practically, discrimination occurs in pretty much all businesses I know of, often lightly, sometimes egregiously. in the latter case, “victims” may look for redress and compensation. even if your recruits are all natives, so long as you do not use nationality as the discriminatory factor, there is nothing wrong … otherwise, be careful for legal actions. Best regards, @A Londoner if you are worried about 16-18 years old apprentices having to compete with other European youths of same age on the UK job market, then it’s a non issue : the latter are statistically insignificant for the UK job market however, if you are worried about, say the UK 16-24 apprentices, competing with the Europeans 20-30 with practical experience, then yes … but here the problem is not migration, but government policy there is absolutely nothing that prevent the UK government from providing tax breaks to companies that recruit UK young apprentices for a period of 6-12 months as part of their first job. that’s the kind of “discrimination” that is perfectly allowed because it’s not about nationals vs others, but an age/qualification levels vs all others such schemes are widely used on the continent. the government could use similar tax breaks and incentives, to promote other groups that have difficulty integrating into the job markets, or for students first job experience, so long as it doesn’t discriminate between Europeans and nationals (say a European resident studying and graduating at a UK university would be perfectly entitled to the scheme) there is something very wrong about the state of public information and media awareness in the UK for example, you speak of youth joblessness. it’s widely derided that southern european countries have rates of 50%+ youth joblessness … that’s false 16-24 youths looking for a job have rates of 50% joblessness … but 80%-90% of 16-24 are not looking for a job 16-24 youth joblessness, that is the number of unemployed youths not in other activities and actively for a job, is mostly around 6% to 10% of all 16-24 (12% to 20% for worst cases, and not necessarily those you might think) I agree it’s a problem but joblessness of 24-50 years old are much more problematic and numerous, especially for those 1+ year without work Best regards, I keep saying it but we take capital with us & our pensions when we go abroad, I bought my house with cash I’d earn’t in the UK & we had 800,000 poles arrived in the first two years of accession to the EU not to mention the other East EU countries. We have 350000 French but they mostly live around London & have good paying jobs paying a lot of tax so I personally don’t mind them being over there. We now also have thousands of young Spaniards, Portuguese & Italians pouring into the country. Most of the English near me privately educate their kids at bilingual schools & have health/travel insurance & so aren’t a burden on their services, we pay for our services & management costs. We are not a burden in anyway shape or form., but as you say we will agree to disagree but surely we must agree we need a referendum as soon as possible to close down this debate once & for all that’s only very partially true as per 2013, the Department of Work and Pensions had 500k+ UK pensioners on its payroll residing in the Spain and around a million pensioners over Europe expats pensioners also can still claim various benefits and their health costs when treated in Europe are charged back to the NHS (but at the local cost though, so it can often be cheaper for UK books) best regards, Joe, I am sure your personal experiences are true, but they are anecdotal so I can’t check them out. I prefer to try and get the full picture, and the only way I know how to do that is to look at various empirical research projects. There are many struggling British pensioners in Spain, not all of them are well-off. And most EU migrants here – from both west and east Europe – came here for work and that’s what most of them do: work. Proportionally far less of them are claiming benefits compared to Britons. If there is no work, they mostly either don’t come, or they go back home. I am sure you’re not a burden, as much as I am sure that most EU migrants here are not a burden; they’re a boon to our economy. Without them, our eye-watering debt would be considerably higher. I am sorry that I failed to convince of you this. But a lot of this too is about feelings, and you get to a certain age and realise that you can’t argue with someone feelings; however many facts and data you throw at people, their feelings may not shift. I feel proud to be British and European. That’s not a sentiment every Briton feels, I know, but also, I am aware of many tens of thousands of fellow Britons who do feel the same way as me. I feel we are part of the European family and I don’t want us to leave. Our continent was spilt by two horrendous world wars, and only in recent years have countries hidden for decades behind a Communist Iron Curtain come back to join us again. They will take time to recover, but when they do, they will be net contributors to the EU budget and increase the prosperity of us all. I want to keep the continent intact, and I think the European Union – although by any means not perfect – is the glue to keep us together and at peace. Yes, I would welcome a referendum too. I can’t really see how this issue is going away without one. Although I voted NO in the first referendum, I have now changed my mind and propose to vote YES if there is a second referendum. On the other hand, if in the next few years the economy of Europe fully recovers – as I hope and anticipate it will – the appetite for a referendum and reasons to leave might dissipate. The latest opinion polls seem to indicate that, most ironically, the more popular UKIP seem to get, the more people in the UK want to us the stay in the EU, albeit with reforms. I am for reforms too, but ones that we can persuade our fellow EU members will be of benefit to all, not just to us. That’s the correct way to behave when you’re a member of a club, isn’t it? I dint think I will be entitled to my UK pension unless i am living in the UK but thats a while away yet but I have a private pension that pays out regardless of where I am in Sterling, I should get my OAP pension when its due but my neighbour said they were trying to make it difficult, Ill let you know in 15 years \U0001f642 We went to war when Europe fell out, I honestly believe we should have stayed out of their wars, the one’s that were at each others throats are now in bed together, we dont need to join them we can go back to doing what we always did, trade with the world & be neighbourly with our neighbours when they are neighbourly to us anyway good luck I hope you end up happy what ever the result down the line The war was not ours to stay out of; our continent was under attack, and do you think the Nazis would have just ignored us if we had ignored them? And do you really think we could ignore millions of people being slaughtered on our doorstep by the German fascist war machine? What sort of Europe do you think would be our neighbours now if the Nazis were in power for a thousand years, as they hoped? All the might of the USA, the Soviet Union and the UK with its Allies only just managed to overpower those Nazis – it wasn’t a sure victory. As far as trade with the rest of the world is concerned, what’s stopping us? Not the EU, that’s for sure. We can have the best of both worlds – the EU (our single most important market) and the rest of the world. It most certainly doesn’t have to be either or. We are European; Europe is our continent. It’s understandable that we may have developed an ‘island mentality’. That’s fine and so is healthy scepticism. But let’s not take our eyes off the prize: outside of the European Union the UK will be poorer and just a little country on its own. That’s not what I want. I hope we have a referendum and I will vote to for us to stay in the EU. They have jumped back into bed with each other. There is no way the Germans would have invaded the UK they were only ever interested in Europe & we had no interest in it. Our problem was that at the time we were the worlds policeman our interests stretched far beyond Europe, for what the Germans would have gained from attacking the UK the damage that would have been inflicted back at them would have been so dire they wouldn’t have contemplated such action. If we hadn’t gone to war but let German tanks rolls across the continent I’d suggest far fewer people would have died. They will fall out amongst themselves again & guess what, there is no way Putin would attack the UK as we have a seaborne ultimate deterrent & we wont attack them as they too have the ultimate deterrent. Joe, again we will have to agree to disagree. After the invasion and defeat of France – our ally – in June 1940, Hitler turned his attention to the invasion of Britain, the last country in Western Europe to stand against him. Hitler did not particularly wish to invade Britain; after the fall of France, he assumed the British would simply surrender. Hitler was therefore surprised when Britain did not surrender. On 16 July, he issued ‘Directive Number 16’. This authorised detailed preparations for an invasion landing in Britain, codenamed Operation Sea Lion. It stated: “The aim of this operation is to eliminate the English motherland as a base from which war against Germany can be continued, and, if this should become unavoidable, to occupy it to the full extent”. Germany also declared war on the USA. I think it’s naïve to think Britain could have – or should have – stayed neutral in the Second World War. I have to leave this conversation for the time being and let the silent readers looking on make up their own minds. Those who are interested can follow my blogs on this subject at She had to to get rid of Denis Healy’s debts & keep the IMF out, do you remember the 3 day week, strikes every week, no one getting buried, no one collecting the bins, no bread in the shops, no sugar in your tea & tea instead of coffee because we had no coffee either, the dockers were constantly on strike, rubbish was two stories high & you couldn’t get petrol or diesel unless you were a haulier, much like the last time labour got in the 3 day week was under the tories never had a problem getting sugar, break etc (again – under the tories) so it does seem like it was at least partly under the tory-vermin 50+ comment .. not bad @ all Oh yes Cameron! You have to pay the bill despite how much this hurts you ! However instead of naging or lackmailing you could then leave your so called “Organizaton”. El Pluribus Unum 12 UK Communities now contain a total of 2862 underage sex victims of muslim gangs. None of whom have filed audited accounts. Are we saying all the other groups across the EU are submitting audited accounts? The EU Commission and its officials should state clearly their position on the accounts of criminal gangs and also their tax position. Supine indifference to such issues are no longer acceptable. Mr Juncker make a statement on this issue. And Yes unfortunately that’s a problem! And I think they have to ! Some of them maybe ISIS supporter distributing Caliphate papers all over London no sorry but the whole E.U. is affected and infested about theses distributed papers ! That is the reality We cannot wait anymore ignoring the whole issue! Some are behaving totally anti-social ! From where does they come ? From France through Eurotunnel ? ! If there were no internal security in London then they would follow the behead philosophy by even false identities. That is a huge issue! They are Not E.U. Citizens! A few weeks ago also David Cameron voted in favour of the new calculation of Member States´contributions to the EU budget. And now also for him this means: pacta sunt servanda! So please simply take Camerons crazy “explosion” as what it is: playing, as we say in Germany, the “Rumpelstiltskin”, hoping to get some more votes in 2015. For media and comedians a most welcomed straight line. Congratulations to the Euro morons @Jon Danzig Where are all those Brits I wonder? The anecdotes relate to pensioners in Spain. second home owners in the Dordogne etc etc. Given our monoglot nature I am not convinced that the ability of Brits to work throughout Europe is of great importance. The ability to work in one of the anglo-saxon countries would be . @Mike Parr But you are breaking the law. @Starbuck Thanks. Thats interesting. It was the advanced apprenticeships that I had in mind but the UK group that I am most concerned about are the “Jeremy Kyle Show group” who would not be qualified anyway. I think easy EU migration is one reason we have been able to ignore the need to raise their educational standards. Plus more international migration seems to reduce regional migration (I have no stats to quote.). On my bus you hear plenty of Polish but rarely a northern English accent. As London becomes ever more foreign it is becoming even less uncongenial for lads from the estate in Sheffield. I cannot blame employers or the migrants but I am not convinced that migration policy should be purely market driven. The vast majority of Britons who go to live in other parts of the EU do so for the same reasons that citizens of other parts of the EU come to the UK – for work. Most of them are pensioners. Out of 1.8million 1.3 million are expat pensioners living in Spain who apparently are not working and can get UK benefits. @Noggin, where do you get these numbers? They are not correct. About 2m Britons live in Europe. According to the Foreign Office, only 394,000 are them are pensioners. The vast majority of Britons living in the rest of Europe are working. Britons living in other EU countries are entitled to claim benefits and have access to healthcare, enjoying the same rights as people born in those countries. There are about one million Britons living in Spain. British retirees receive free access to Spanish GPs (their hospital treatment is paid for by the NHS) and after they become permanent residents, Spain pays for their hospital treatment. The healthcare of Britons residing in Spain costs the Spanish treasury £249 million a year, a burden to Spain which is struggling to balance its books. But Spain is not calling for an end to ‘Free Movement’. Most of them are pensioners. Out of 1.8million 1.3 million are expat pensioners living in Spain who apparently are not working and can get UK benefits. That’s the funniest comment I have ever read, lose our voting rights lol they are as much use as a chocolate tea pot. We vote one way & the other 27 vote with money bags merkel. On anything of substance where we have a very real interest in a vote we are simply outvoted so losing voting rights will save us money, we wont have to bother attending meetings Don’t agree that products from Europe are cheaper and better. Most of the stuff I buy is made in the Far East/China/Japan, including my new Dyson. The only European product bought recently is a VW Polo and I wouldn’t say that was cheap. I am sure if products are good they can be bought and sold anywhere. Retailers are only interested in the profit they can make to sustain their business. Politicians are only interested in smoke screens. If we’re concerned about the additional ‘membership fees’ now demanded by the EU from the UK, shouldn’t we be equally or more perturbed about the money UKIP receives through the EU via our taxes? UKIP will reportedly receive £1 million in funding through its European Parliamentary grouping, ‘Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy’, after it recruited a far-right MEP to join so it had sufficient numbers under EU rules to get the money. In addition, UKIP’s 24 MEPs receive EU salaries of €96,246 a year (£76,320) each. That’s €2.3 million (£1.8 million) between them every year for the next five years. Plus of course a monthly expenses allowance each of €4,299 (£3,408). All paid at least in part out of our annual contribution to the European Union – which comes out of our taxes. And yet, UKIP has the worst attendance record in the EU Parliament and has been branded, “the laziest political party in Europe.” When they did show up, at the opening of the new session of the Parliament last summer, they chose to turn their backs on the proceedings rather than take part. Nigel Farage has stated he not only wants the UK out of the EU, he wants Europe out of the EU; in other words the entire dissolution of the European Union. Isn’t it hypocritical for UKIP to complain that the UK has to pay more money to the EU, when some of it may end up in UKIP’s coffers? Wouldn’t it be more respectable for UKIP to refuse to take any EU money? @ jon danzig You may not agree with what UKIP stands for (your privilege) but it is very naive of you (or poorly informed), not to know that UKIP stands for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. All they wish for is a trading relationship with the EU. They use the EP as a political gesture for their cause which is not exactly the first time that has happened in recent times (SNP using Westminster for their own ends comes to mind). They are using the UK taxpayers money to further their cause which is no different to any other political party. If you accept this as a fact, how you could then expect them in some way, to contribute to the EU’s cause escapes me. Regards You may call me anything you like, but Nigel Farage is on record as saying that he wants the end of the European Union. I am not sure how UKIP MEPs spend their expenditure allowances, but this shouldn’t be for political purposes, and Mr Farage has not been transparent about this. Unlike Labour, Conservative and LibDem MEPs, UKIP does not publish audited accounts of their MEPs expenditures. I do not expect UKIP to contribute to the EU’s cause, as their leader wants to see its demise. By the same token, I do not expect the EU to fund UKIP’s cause either; or at least, in my mind, it would be more principled of UKIP not to take the money. That’s my opinion. And incidentally, if the UK leaves the EU, we will lose free trading status with the EU single market – unless we become like Norway and Switzerland, and accept EU laws and contribute annually to the EU budget for the right for ‘free access’, But what would be the point of that? Why can’t we get a trade deal like South Korea? or Singapore? or Canada? they don’t pay any protection money do they? Barroso was ecstatic at securing a free trade deal with Canada, imagine how excited he will be to secure such a deal with the worlds 6th biggest economy? If he doesnt want a deal we can trade like China, America or Japan, they seem to do ok using WTO rules Well said, Joe. It is worth pointing out that Norway has a trade deal with Canada for ages. They just have to negotiate for themselves, unlike the UK who have surrendered that right to the EU. That is obviously a more difficult task to take into account all 28 countries interests. There is EU-Korea Free Trade Agreement. The EU is more than a free trade deal. If all UK want is to trade goods, there was no point to join the EU. It is already a bit more complicated when you consider sevrices. Do not forget that trade deal do not always mean free trade, Some sectors would definitly be impact if UK leaves the EU. The first one would be the financial sector. Do you imagine that the financial center of the EU would remain outside. The activities would quickly relocate (in Luxembourg, Francfurt, …). It wouldn’t be that difficult taking into account that City labourforce is more and more made of expats. Then UK could join EFTA like Switzerland. After loosing its competitive advantage, the City could try to copy the Swiss model. But it will be a fundamental change. Probably impossible without the free mobility of workers as it is in Switerzland. Did you know that the EBA, is located in London? We already have free trade agreements with South Korea, Singapore and Canada through our membership of the European Union. Do you think we’d get better deals outside of the EU and as a small country? It’s often said that in negotiations you’re more likely to get the best deal if you’re the same size or bigger than the entity you’re negotiating with. The EU is the world’s biggest single market: bigger than the USA, bigger than China. With that muscle, the EU is able to achieve excellent trade arrangements, to our advantage here in the UK, with the world’s countries. If we leave the EU, we will have to start all over again and agree trade deals with all the world’s countries on our own. I do not believe we’d get anywhere near as good a deal as the ones achieved through our membership of the EU. I really do hope we never have to put this to the test. The funds given to UKIP’s political EP group comes from the UK and the taxpayers and voters who elected them. According to your logic only politicians who are supportive of the EU should be allowed to access those funds. Very democratic! You have absolutely no proof that If the UK were to leave the EU or negotiate different terms, it would anything other than successful. I look forward to you proving me wrong, but please, no links to your favourite bloggers or sites. I hope that if the UK leaves the EU the country will do well and negotiate the best terms. However, I support our continued membership of the EU, although I voted NO in the first referendum. I am not actually saying that only politicians who are supportive of the EU should have access to legitimate funds. I think healthy scepticism about the EU – in fact about any government or institution – is to be encouraged. However, I feel it would be more principled for UKIP to refuse this money. If the UK leaves the EU, all indications are that we would lose free trading access to our most important single market. I cannot imagine that the other 27 members of the EU would allow us to have all the membership benefits without having to accept the rules of the club or to pay the membership dues. That’s not how clubs work. My opinion (no proof, just my considered opinion) is that outside the EU, the UK would be alone, a country barely the size of Florida, and much poorer. The last time this country was truly alone was hundreds of years ago. Before we joined the EEC, we had an Empire, but it was dying and we needed a new Single Market. That’s why the Conservative government applied to join in 1961, with the support, incidentally, of Winston Churchill. I think when we are discussing current events it does none of us any favours when we drag the old chesnut called the British Empire out of the hat. There are very few alive who remember that one. You are also fond of throwing Churchill into the mix, who was indeed a fine, fine, wartime leader and Prime Minister. How good he was as a peacetime leader is indeed another question and indeed was prone to the odd mistake and bad judgement call. I think it is best if we agree to disagree on this one. But if we ignore recent history (and it is very recent) we cannot possibly understand how we arrived where we are or indeed where we might go next. Our Empire is an integral part of our long route to EEC membership, and indeed why we were not founder joiners. Churchill played an essential role in the establishment of the European community and is recognised as one of the founders of the European Union. It seems to me that the Conservatives are on the brink of throwing away the greatest peacetime legacies of their greatest leader, Churchill, who pushed for a kind of ‘united states of Europe’, who promoted free movement of people across our continent, and who strongly advocated the world’s first binding legislation on human rights. I miss his kind of Conservatism. I can see soon that the Conservative Party may well split in two. Nice post. [windows ftp]( Where do you get your figures? You sound like a politician not an ordinary Joe. Mine are from a newspaper article, so I only know what I read. You haven’t commented on the cheaper/better EU manufacture. This comment comes from personal experience of being married to an exporter of British goods. The Germans and French love them and would buy them whether we were in the EU or not. Well I am a journalist who writes about politics, especially the EU. I am interested in truth, and my mind can and does change on receipt of new evidence. The numbers of EU migrants coming here, and British expats going there, are not fixed: they are constantly in the state of flux and all we can do is get a snapshot of any one time. My figures come from the IPPR, British government (especially the foreign office and UK embassies), Migration Observatory, Migration Watch, etc. If you have credible figures that counter mind, please do share your source so I can review it. However, from all my research, the numbers of Britons living in other parts of Europe, and the numbers of EU citizens living in the UK, are quite well balanced; and although a lot of Britons do retire to other parts of Europe, the vast majority go to live across the EU for work opportunities. I believe that having an even playing field regarding products sold across the EU helps facilitate easier exports and imports, and I am pleased that the EU has such a stringent safety record on ensuring that electrical products are safe and that our foodstuffs and medicines pass stringent safety tests; ditto vehicles. These are often rules that a nation alone couldn’t achieve; it needs transnational co-operation, which has been one of the great achievements of the EU. In the past, our continent used to resolve difficulties through war; the EU has been a path to peace and prosperity. Despite the economic turndown, the EU still represents the world’s biggest, richest single market. I want the UK to lead it, not leave it. Not a huge amount to disagree with there. It is the politics and loss of sovereignty that many of us have a problem with. Our UK Parliament still rules supreme. Anything yesterday’s Parliament agreed can be undone by tomorrow’s Parliament. Proof indeed that we’re still in control. The European Union is not like the ex Soviet Union. All countries joined voluntarily and all are free to leave. No EU treaty change has been agreed without the prior consent of our Parliament. Our UK Parliament still rules supreme. Anything yesterday’s Parliament agreed can be undone by tomorrow’s Parliament. Proof indeed that we’re still in control. The European Union is not like the ex Soviet Union. All countries joined voluntarily and all are free to leave. No EU treaty change has been agreed without the prior consent of our Parliament. On that basis no payments should be paid to MEP’s who’s countries are hooked up to the subsidy drip from Net Payment countries like the UK Precisely, we didn’t join a European Union of States, we joined a “Common Market” to remove obstacles to trade nothing more, nothing less but because we have no voice in the EU as we are smothered by the other 27 pro-integrationists. It is far better that we leave the EU & regain our voice at the table. The funding of the EU should budget should be charged out to the citizens in the form of a deduction from pensions, welfare benefits & through the paye system. Everyone should pay the same cost equally so that they focus their minds when voting on what their actions costs rather than letting someone else pick up the tab for their decisions Preciesely we joined a “Common Market” and and “Customs union”. We could just have opted for the Free trade area like Norway or Iceland. The point of the Economic Union is to to remove obstacles to trade nothing more, nothing less. You will note that just because different currencies constituted an obstacle to trade, the Euro was created. The monetary union is there to strenghten the Common Market nothing more, nothing less. And further economic integration is necessary i.e Banking Union, Capital Market Union. It just about trade. From the beginning the Common Market is composed of a free trade area with some common policies and regulations, and freedom of movement of the factors of production (capital and labour) and of enterprise and services. Now UK would like a Single Market without labour mobility and without common Economic policies? Is still a Single Market then? UK want a Customs union, but the power to negociate trade deal on its own? What kind of single union it is? Of UK did not like Economic integration they should have negotiated a preferential trading agreement. It is not EU who has changed the plan, it is UK that changed is mind. The 27 are pro-integrationists because a single market is per definition an intergationnist process. Joe, how will we have a voice at the table if we are not at the table? If we leave, we lose influence. Norway and Switzerland have free trade with the EU, but they have to accept the rules of the Single Market and pay a sizeable contribution to the EU budget each year. They obviously think that’s worthwhile because the EU market is so lucrative. But Norway and Switzerland have no say in the running or future of the EU and have no vote in the EU Parliament. That’s not the right path for the UK. The EFTA countries are indeed part of the EU’s single market; Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway through the Agreement on a European Economic Area (EEA) and Switzerland through a set of bilateral agreements. They to contributes to some internal markets policies. EFTA have no vote in the EU Council and EU Parliament. Switzerland is in difficult positions because it would like to amend several signle market regulations, but it has absolutely no power to do so. Switzerland will probably be kicked out of the single market if they refuse the mobility of labour as it has been decided bu the 28. If they were in the EU they could call for reforms. UK was memeber of EFTA between 1960 and 1973. UK join the EU to have a say in the functionning of the single market. Unfortunately UK does not understand the concept of shared sovereignty. Nostalgic of the Empire. I doubt UK would vote be part of the European Economic Area (EEA) after leaving the EU. Eurosceptic do not consider Norway or Switzerland as a model. It seems they just want a basic individual trade deal similar to the one of Chile, Korea, Mexico and South Africa. If that happens the EU will lose access to the 6th biggest economy in the world & the Germans access to their number one export market & as we run a £65 billion deficit with the EU we would be the obvious winners The EU would not lose access to us and we would not lose access to the EU. We will just lose freer and easier access to the EU market and visa versa. Trade would continue, wouldn’t it? No one is suggesting an end to trade. If we applied 10% tariffs to our imports from the EU & it applied 10% to our exports we would have enough money to build two new aircraft carriers each year because we run a deficit of £65 billion with the rest of the EU so what does it matter if we have a free trade agreement like Canada, Singapore or South Korea of a WTO arrangement like America, Australia or China? Only 5% of UK businesses trade with the EU but the other 95% have to apply EU rules/labelling to their products which is bonkers. @Joe I have to say, I don’t understand you economic reasoning. UK an EU would not apply a 10% tariffs. It would be a killer, for the car industry for instance. Tariffs are usually negotiated line by line. I don’t see the link with the two new aircraft carriers and the trade deficit. The difference between a free trade agreement like Canada, Singapore or South Korea and WTO arrangement like America, Australia or China is the tariff. It is always better to trade for free than for a fee. A few percentage points make a big difference. Even if only 5% of UK businesses trade with the EU it is normal than the other 95% have to apply EU rules/labeling to their products. It is because we have a single market with EU. If you fragment it, it is not a single market anymore. The point is to enhance intra-EU trade. The same logic applied before at national level. Most of companies were selling locally but still the same regulations applied throughout UK. What if the labeling was different in Manchester than Brighton? Where do you put the geographical limit for common rules? Not only for the Car industry but a lot of companies will leave the U.K. too ! As Goldman Sachs already stated if in case of then they will leave London into the City of Europe with it’s 7000 Workforces . They would instantly give us a free trade deal, It is our warships, airforce, Submarines out patrolling their seas & helping ensuring they are safe from external threats. I don’t see many German Ships or French ones for that matter rushing to their aid when a typhoon comes along do you? We would also have trade deals with China, America, Australia, New Zealand etc which the EU have singularly failed to achieve You are blaming the EU for being what it has always been. You don’t UK to be part of a Signle Market, not even a Custom Union. All you want is free trade. And for sure it is something UK can get. But why blaming the EU to be something more than a Free Trade? Why blaming EU for UK wrong decisions? Do you really thing the British army is the most powerful in Europe? I am not that sure. Our only advantage is Geographic. That’s why we are up in the rankings. If you want to compare, here are the figures. But does-it really matter? France: Active Frontline Personnel: 228,656 Active Reserve Personnel: 195,770 Tanks: 423 Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 7,290 Aircraft: 1,203 Helicopters: 561 Naval Strength: 120 Frigates: 22 Nuclear weapons: 290/ 300 (Active/Total) UK: Active Frontline Personnel: 205,330 Active Reserve Personnel: 182,000 Tanks: 407 Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 6,245 Aircraft: 908 Helicopters: 362 Naval Strength: 66 Frigates: 13 Nuclear weapons: 160 / 225 (Active/Total) I am not so confident that we would fare so well outside the EU. You may be right, of course, but I wouldn’t want to test your theory – because we’ll be in big trouble if you’re wrong. At least we know, good or bad, what 40 years membership has brought us. When it comes to the crunch, voters may not be so keen to vote for the unknown…and nobody can give us any guarantees. Regarding China, it’s now the EU’s 2nd trading partner behind the United States and the EU is China’s biggest trading partner. Negotiations are ongoing for a trade agreement and it’s complicated; the EU wants to ensure that China trades fairly, respects intellectual property rights and meets its WTO obligations. It would also be complicated if UK tried to negotiate with China direct; and we’re so small compared to the EU, I just don’t think we’d achieve a good deal. The same applies to the EU-US trade deal, although I do have reservations about that. Let’s not exhaust ourselves before a possible in-our referendum in 2017, if it actually takes place. A lot can happen between now and then… and if Europe recovers sufficiently from the economic turndown, voters may not want to abandon the potential in sharing in Europe’s wealth. We are at the table now & we have no influence whatsoever unless we play the same tune on our pipe that they are playing. As soon as we have an independent thought we have zero influence on the message. They want us to commit everything we have to the EU project despite the disparity of what we have to offer compared to any other country. No one ever subsidised the UK when we were on an IMF program so why should our tax payers do the same for Europe? they got enough out of us during two world wars. Europeans are always fighting each other so maybe they are better together without a voice but we can stand on our own two feet, we dont have to worry about France, Italy, Germany or Russia we have the means still to defend ourselves & if we get out of the EU we will maintain that capacity unlike any other EU nation France couldnt even get to the CAR or Mali without getting a piggy back from the UK & Canada & lets face it Ryanair fly further than that. France can’t project power globally & neither can Russia for that matter, we can. LOL the UK didn’t provide squat airlift capabilities for the Mali operation because 1) the only aircraft it did propose very late, broke down before it could be of use 2) and in CAR, pretty much the same thing happened … promising some civilian help but doing nothing to actually prevent the outbreak of a civil war and before you ask why should the UK bother ? because pretty much all religious inter-ethnic wars in Africa can be related to the long-held tradition of British governors to play the minorities against the majorities, with the muslims in nearby Sudan (persecuting animists and christians), and further away in Nigeria (being persecuted by christians) stoking troubles for the whole region. just like in Kenya and Somalia and before that we had crass imperial neglect with Sierra Leone and Liberia … Uganda and Rwanda LOL the UK didn’t provide squat airlift capabilities for the Mali operation because 1) the only aircraft it did propose very late, broke down before it could be of use 2) and in CAR, pretty much the same thing happened … promising some civilian help but doing nothing to actually prevent the outbreak of a civil war in both cases, France deployed more troops and materiel in a week, and under fire, than the UK did in Koweit/Iraq in a whole month at peace back in 2003, so stuff it with your chauvinistic idiocy. and before you ask why should the UK bother ? because pretty much all religious inter-ethnic wars in Africa can be related to the long-held tradition of British governors to play the minorities against the majorities, with the muslims in nearby Sudan (persecuting animists and christians), and further away in Nigeria (being persecuted by christians) stoking troubles for the whole region. just like in Kenya and Somalia and before that we had crass post-imperial neglect with Sierra Leone and Liberia … Uganda and Rwanda @ Starbuck The RAF supplied the heavy lifting for the French operation in CAR. LOL you call leasing 1 transport aircraft to carry 5 vehicles every 3 days “Heavy Lifting” ? ahaha … you get lost in your militaristic delusions Ukrainian antonovs under lease were more helpful, and they are neither in NATO, the EU or have strategic interests in Africa seriously, British “help” was so insignificant compared to its vaunted “5th world biggest military spender”, that it was truly pathetic pathetic is the word, my apologies if I hurt your patriotism @ Starbuck No point in lashing out at me just because you got caught out with your trousers down around your Pixie boots. “lashing at you”, so say the man in flames ahah, victimhood again, the first refuge of the right-wing nuts … Why do you keep saying we are so small? we are the 6th biggest economy in the world & scheduled to be the biggest economy in Europe before 2050 even the Swiss have a trade deal with China! are you saying our world wide network of diplomats can’t come up with enough grey matter between them to make the same deal? You must be afraid to go out of the house in the morning if you think we aren’t big enough & old enough not to mention clever enough to do a few trade deals I also have confidence in Britain and the stoical nature of the British people. However, we are now the 6th biggest economy. Who knows what we’d be outside of the EU. You can’t tell us. Nor can I. We know, good or bad, how we fare now and what 40 years membership of the EU has involved. All those who want us out of the EU can guess what it would be like on the outside of Europe. You’re asking people to vote for the unknown. I’m yet to be persuaded – and Eurosceptics will need to convince a lot of people like me to win an outright vote in a possible referendum. The latest opinion polls showed that support for our continued membership is at its highest since 1991. Most British people want us to stay in the EU. You have a big job on your hands. @ Jon Danzig You should be honest and acknowledge that the EU GDP year on year is reducing against the rest of the world. You are of course right in what you say about the EU poll, as far as it goes. On further investigation you will find that the same poll found that 34% of those polled, when presented with four options, would prefer to go back to the European Economic Community with political ties. (You may need to click on the graph two or three times to get to the result I refer to. @georgeMC with all due respect, but are you that ignorant ?!? share of World GDP for ALL developped countries have been falling year after years for the past 30 years it has nothing to do so much because of ups and downs, and everything to do because of the large demographic booms and economic catch-ups from poor countries America had its share of World GDP declined every year so did Canada and Australia Japan Korea … go on, whichever you want to name it and yet, just like the European Union, they also have had their GDP rise almost every year, and on trend, continuously right now, on a per capita basis, Europeans are still more wealthier than 10 years ago but because of lower natality and a greying population, we are structurally bound to have our share of the World GDP decline. And yet, we are also, as individuals, collectively getting richer that’s pure mathematics !! anyone learning how to divide, would realize that to keep up the same ratio with an ever-expanding denominator, means that the numerator must grow at the same rate … which leads us to different issues 1) we would have to accept many more immigrants, way more … something that Kippers abolutely hate 2) we would have to revolve our quality of life around the indicators of production of manufactured goods (and give hell to health and environment) 3) or take it the other way around, we would have to condemn billions to a life of abject poverty, so that a few hundred millions can rejoice that they have a growing (or stable) world share of GDP as for one, I’m rejoicing that our World share of GDP is declining not because I’m a declinist, but because it means that hundred of millions are getting out of dirt poor poverty, without wealthy europeans (that is you and me, even though my paycheck is far from 6 figures sum) having to lose in quality of life Best regards, here is a good graphs to illustrate this : with or without the EU, the UK is structurally a declining country … but so are all other advanced economies (albeit at different speed, due to demographics) on the other hand, though countries like China and India are growing, they are nowhere near the level of wealth or prosperity that their population size would warrant (were they any closer to ours on per capita wealth). and even after that, it’d be nothing but a “return to normality” by historical standards. best regards, I should be honest? I am not in the business of being dishonest. If you want to be a persuader and educator, best to add knowledge to the debate without attempting to demean others in the process. As far as honesty is concerned, why single out the EU? Isn’t it true that ALL Western nations are fast shrinking in significance, relative to the rest of the world? This can clearly be seen by comparing the GDP of the G7 countries with today’s emerging powers (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea). I interpret this, actually, as yet more reasons to stay in the EU. I believe Britain will be dwarfed by these emerging countries in the decades to come and we simply will not be able to sustain our position as the sixth biggest economy. It will also be a struggle for the European Union to maintain its position too. But at least together I believe we have a greater chance. If we leave the EU, or worse, the EU disintegrates back into small nation states, my view is that we will all be ruined. Our strength is in unity. Also, I think you have misquoted the poll. You wrote that “34% of those polled,… would prefer to go back to the European Economic Community with political ties.” However, I believe the poll said “without political ties”. However, I expect this was an honest mistake on your behalf. What I don’t understand about the poll question is that the EEC was never just an economic union; the Treaty of Rome always aspired to political union too. The Treaty set out a wide political vision for EEC members for ‘an ever closer union’ to ‘eliminate the barriers which divide Europe’, including free movement of people across our continent. That was hardly a non-political statement. So, the Poll Question really was both unfair and misleading, and incompatible with the founding document of the EEC. In any event, it does seem an irony that lately, since UKIP’s popularity has risen, so has support for our continued membership of the EU. I think it’s all fickle and we shouldn’t take the polls too seriously, as the only poll that counts is a real referendum. I suspect that neither the YES nor the NO votes have sufficiently convincing support for an outright victory. So both sides have everything to play for, and both sides need to win more hearts and minds. So, you know, we have to be nice to each other. I have always encouraged people to try and listen carefully to all sides of the argument. I have tried to do this, but so far I am not convinced by the anti-EU case. For me, so far, I think there is are overwhelming reasons for the UK to stay in the EU and work with our allies to make it better, more democratic and more responsive to the will and aspirations of our continent’s 500+ million citizens. you are not scheduled for anything but a late coffin, Joe Thorpe the simulations for that result were based on several assumptions 1) that the open border policies for immigration were to be kept in place … the same policies that you Kippers want to put a stop to 2) that the boom/bust perennial flaws of the UK economy has actually been solved (go tell that to the City bankers and homeowners) 3) that other European countries see a dramatic shift in the size and ageing of their population (especially Germany and other Central/Eastern European countries) 4) that the UK stay whole (fat chance if there is an OUT referendum) 5) that in the next 40 years, everything will be all fine and dandy …. by 2050, the UK could be the only country left above waters for all we know (joke) such exercises are just statistical mind game in the mid 1980, the Japanese stock market was predicted to reach 50k and top the US as the economic world superpower we were told that the price of oil would top 200$ by 2015 Goldman Sachs creator of the BRIC’s acronym predicted with much fanfare that Russia would be the 4th or 5th world economy by (good luck for that one, even without the current crisis) geez, only nationalistic idiots would take such predictions at face value You should be honest and acknowledge that the EU GDP year on year is reducing against the rest of the world. You are of course right in what you say about the EU poll, as far as it goes. On further investigation you will find that the same poll found that 34% of those polled, when presented with four options, would prefer to go back to the European Economic Community with political ties. (You may need to click on the graph two or three times to get to the result I refer to. What do you mean by going back to the EEC? Because the EEC has now been replaced by the EU. Difficult to go backward. What do you want to remove from the EU? The European Parliament? The single market? You to go back to the EEC of 1973 or 1993 ? Is the Maastricht Treaty, the step too far? Suggesting to go backward maybe a nice dream but it is just impossible. It would like saying “lets get back the Empire”. The world has evolved. @ ge041075 Respectfully, I have said nothing other than to point out to another poster that an opinion poll had shown results other than the obvious headline. Could I suggest you follow the link regarding the IPSOS Mori poll to see the other questions that were asked. My personal preference is for the UK to exit from the EU on the best terms we can get. My personal preference is for the UK to exit from the EU on the best terms we can get. It was mistake to join the common market and thinking we could avoid economic integration. I believe for the economic point of view the EU is positive. But from a political perspective it is not working. Folks do not understand the concepts of shared sovereignty or post-national identity. The national leader don’t play the game and use the EU for their own interests. Finally the EU is not sufficiently integrated where it matters and it ignore too often the principle of subsidiarity. @ ge041075 For what it is worth I also believe that there will have to be further integration of Eurozone MS. The Euro was so poorly constructed that I do not believe that things can be left as they are, so it is construct or destruct. I should be honest? I am not in the business of being dishonest. If you want to be a persuader and educator, best to add knowledge to the debate without attempting to demean others in the process. As far as honesty is concerned, why single out the EU? Isn’t it true that ALL Western nations are fast shrinking in significance, relative to the rest of the world? This can clearly be seen by comparing the GDP of the G7 countries with today’s emerging powers (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea). I interpret this, actually, as yet more reasons to stay in the EU. I believe Britain will be dwarfed by these emerging countries in the decades to come and we simply will not be able to sustain our position as the sixth biggest economy. It will also be a struggle for the European Union to maintain its position too. But at least together I believe we have a greater chance. If we leave the EU, or worse, the EU disintegrates back into small nation states, my view is that we will all be ruined. Our strength is in unity. Also, I think you have misquoted the poll. You wrote that “34% of those polled,… would prefer to go back to the European Economic Community with political ties.” However, I believe the poll said “without political ties”. However, I expect this was an honest mistake on your behalf. What I don’t understand about the poll question is that the EEC was never just an economic union; the Treaty of Rome always aspired to political union too. The Treaty set out a wide political vision for EEC members for ‘an ever closer union’ to ‘eliminate the barriers which divide Europe’, including free movement of people across our continent. That was hardly a non-political statement. So, the Poll Question really was both unfair and misleading, and incompatible with the founding document of the EEC. In any event, it does seem an irony that lately, since UKIP’s popularity has risen, so has support for our continued membership of the EU. I think it’s all fickle and we shouldn’t take the polls too seriously, as the only poll that counts is a real referendum. I suspect that neither the YES nor the NO votes have sufficiently convincing support for an outright victory. So both sides have everything to play for, and both sides need to win more hearts and minds. So, you know, we have to be nice to each other. I have always encouraged people to try and listen carefully to all sides of the argument. I have tried to do this, but so far I am not convinced by the anti-EU case. For me, so far, I think there is are overwhelming reasons for the UK to stay in the EU and work with our allies to make it better, more democratic and more responsive to the will and aspirations of our continent’s 500+ million citizens. @ Jon Danzig Quote As far as honesty is concerned, why single out the EU? Isn’t it true that ALL Western nations are fast shrinking in significance, relative to the rest of the world? This can clearly be seen by comparing the GDP of the G7 countries with today’s emerging powers (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea). Unquote I agree with the above statement and because of the countries you highlight there is no way that the UK will continue at number 6 in the G7. That will be the case whether we are in or out of the EU. That is where we part company, as I am of the opinion that the UK will be nimble enough to succeed in the high tech and added value world and would be better off negotiating on behalf of itself and not hanging onto the EU’s coat tails (assuming the EU manages to drag itself out of its current difficulties – breakup is not something I want to see as the UK would also suffer). I do believe that if the UK were to pursue its own interests in the larger world we could be very successful. While in the EU we will never be able to do that unless Brussels negotiates it for all 28 MS. We will be able to go back to the old Empire who are now up and coming! Apologies for the typo. You will be aware that the word ‘out’ suits my beliefs and I would not have left it out deliberately. Other than the results of the poll I think you are reading too much into it. I think the polling company was just trying to generate some interest in possible scenarios to see what answers it would generate. I agree with you about the polls and that we really need a referendum preceded by a good campaign by both sides. You will be delighted that as we discuss this story, it has generated a surge in UKIP support of 19%, with Labour and Conservatives both at 30%. I am equally convinced that we will have a trading arrangement with the EU while pursuing our interest around the world and without the straightjacket of EU laws and politics (I accept we will have to comply with EU regulations for EU business). @ Jon Danzig Quote As far as honesty is concerned, why single out the EU? Isn’t it true that ALL Western nations are fast shrinking in significance, relative to the rest of the world? This can clearly be seen by comparing the GDP of the G7 countries with today’s emerging powers (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Korea). Unquote I agree with the above statement and because of the countries you highlight there is no way that the UK will continue at number 6 in the G7. That will be the case whether we are in or out of the EU. That is where we part company, as I am of the opinion that the UK will be nimble enough to succeed in the high tech and added value world and would be better off negotiating on behalf of itself and not hanging onto the EU’s coat tails (assuming the EU manages to drag itself out of its current difficulties – breakup is not something I want to see as the UK would also suffer). I do believe that if the UK were to pursue its own interests in the larger world we could be very successful. While in the EU we will never be able to do that unless Brussels negotiates it for all 28 MS. We will be able to go back to the old Empire who are now up and coming! Apologies for the typo. You will be aware that the word ‘out’ suits my beliefs and I would not have left it out deliberately. Other than the results of the poll I think you are reading too much into it. I think the polling company was just trying to generate some interest in possible scenarios to see what answers it would generate. I agree with you about the polls and that we really need a referendum preceded by a good campaign by both sides. You will be delighted that as we discuss this story, it has generated a surge in UKIP support of 19%, with Labour and Conservatives both at 30%. I am equally convinced that we will have a trading arrangement with the EU while pursuing our interest around the world and without the straightjacket of EU laws and politics (I accept we will have to comply with EU regulations for EU business). @GeorgeMc – no, we shouldn’t part company. We should carry on debating and try to learn from each side. Whether we stay in the EU or not, afterwards we’ll still need to live and work together… As a democrat, if we have a referendum and if it is the will of the British people for us to leave the EU, so be it, I will accept the consensus. I hope that doesn’t happen, but I do usually have confidence that the British people, if they vote in sufficient numbers, will reach the right decision. In the meantime, of course we should continue discussions showing respect for all sides. As I have written many times, we need this to be civil, and not a civil war. \U0001f642 We have a good trade surplus with the rest of the world & a colossal trade deficit with the EU so I’d say our future is outside the EU & even more so if we were allowed to do our own trade deals well 3 things here 1) no, the UK doesn’t have a positive trade balance with every other countries round the world (the EU excluding) some are positive (think US), some are negative (think China) 2) the positive trade balance is positive for 1 reason : investment returns from abroad, and strangely enough that include UK returns on EU investments, because you compare this to the Total Trade vs Trade in Goods only. have the UK out of the Single Market (that is exit the EU), and London lose a lots of shine for all international financial institutions that want to do business in Europe (and hell yeah, they do !!) the UK is 15% of the EU GDP 3) among the many reasons why the UK has a negative balance in goods is twofold a) industrial specialisation and geographic proximity, means that EU products are cheaper/easier to supply than the other side of the world b) UK manufacturers have their supply logistics integrated in Europe, where they get components produced (also known as imports), before having the finished or partially-finished product re-exported to Europe for final sale. the sale will be registered elsewhere, thus “hiding” the contribution of the UK production on purely bookkeeping grounds taken differently, the reason why many manufacturers are in the UK is because they have access to the much larger European market, while benefiting from slightly less regulations and ease of access to logistics. that means, anything that disrupts those logistical flows or make trade more expensive, will result in those manufacturers either receiving massive subsidies from the UK government (at the expense of other social services for the population) or will simply delocalize to a more favourable location on the Continent (or nearby, think Morocco, Turkey, Serbia …) Best regards, Africa wanted to run its own affairs, the rest of the world wanted the British Empire to fold the UN promoted self governance & independence in fact they are still trying to push many UK protectorates to become self governing independent countries although most of them dont want anything to do with it so I say Africa has had civilisation brought to it with Education & Health Institutions & it is now for them to make their choices & basically not our problem You assume anyone that doesnt want the EU its institutions or its socialising of the continent is a UKIP voter, I have never voted for UKIP my MP is Ken Clarke & he has had my vote every year there has been a general election & he will get my vote again in 2015 (Although I would prefer it if he retired & we got a candidate more in tune with the electorate) I vote Conservative & unless Cameron goes back on his referendum I will continue to do so yeah, yeah … so you say except from all your contributions, it’s plainly clear that you do not vote for him because of his positions, but because he’s the Tory representative in your district for national elections. and that’s the most generous way to put it if you did vote for the European elections (as opposed to Westminster), I’ll wager my shirt that you voted UKIP and not Conservative !! ultimately, I don’t care who you vote for. BNP or Martians for all you wish. but I do perfectly get your train of thoughts … and that’s the Daily Mail Ukip Express bandwagon for that reason, I grant myself the perfectly reasoned right to call you a Kipper Best regards, Yes it does! None EU trade is positive, EU trade is Negative, very very Negative Of course it would be a killer, a killer for the German, Italian & French car industries which is why it is farcical to say the EU wouldn’t try to negotiate a free trade agreement with the UK before it left the EU but with the UK having a floating currency that can be revalued a ten per cent surcharge on our exports can be accommodated the EU doesn’t have that luxury & can’t afford to lose unfettered access to our own market I think you don’t get the point. If you devaluate to currency to accommodate the tariff it will makes import more expensive which is bad for consumers. (UK is an import country) There is no point to strengthen the currency to compensate for the tariff. Best to keep the currency stable. For the car industry, you will realize that EU market is bigger than the UK market. The effect of 10% tariff might be more damaging for Jaguar than for BMW or Fiat-Chrysler. Renault-Nissan, would loose anyway as it produce massively both in UK and EU. Trying to reason common sense with EU folk gives you a headache & I’m getting one trying to reason with you. The problem with the EU bubble is no one has ever had a real job, a productive job that creates new jobs, wealth & pays taxes they havent a clue how to make sure they have enough money to pay wages on a Friday other than putting up peoples taxes & picking their pockets Allies in the EU? what allies? the only time anyone take an interest in the UK’s opinion is when there is a Russian bear a knocking on their door & they don’t have enough fighters jets to patrol the skies apart from that we don’t have any allies we are simply an ATM cash cow feeding the vultures that live off subsidies in the EU LOL the depth of delusional thinking !! do you realize that Britain was a co-signatory with the US and Russia of the Budapest memorandum, that was supposed to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for its nuclear demilitarisation ? not France or Germany, or the EU …. but Britain yet, where was Britain when the Ukrainian revolutions took place ? or when Russia invaded Ukraine ? how many times did the Foreign Office meet with their Ukrainian or Russian counterparts ? how many visits were made by British officials in Kiev at the heights of the crisis ? well, France, Germany, Poland … and many other European countries were actively trying to negotiate a way out for all sides, visiting Ukraine and Russia alike but where was the country who apposed its signature to the promise of safeguarding Ukrainian’s sovereignty ? all those past months (since summer 2013), the British government has been pontificating from Westminter, huffing and puffing at press conference, while doing diddy squat to try to uphold its responsibilities (as a one fervent proponent of NATO expansion, it’s hell yeah of a responsibility) and you dare say that other European countries came begging the UK for protection ? tell me that you’re joking or that you wrote this without much thoughts … because it’s so ignorant of realities, it could have come from cuckooland en route to lalaland here is the reality-check : no European countries came begging the UK to act, because 1) the UK had no intentions to live up to its responsibilities 2) the UK had no operational forces to live up to its responsibilities (beyond words of support and token gestures) 3) the UK wasn’t even interested in trying to solve the situation for a start Cameron and the rest of the Conservative cabinet have no strategic vision, only a political vision for the next election everything and anything that can not be spinned towards that end, is of no interest to the UK government. you still keep deluding yourself that the UK has a big, wonderful army, navy and airforce no it hasn’t it is stretched to the limits by its Iraq and Afghanistan deployments, and its equipment is worn out the British forces are a shadow of a ghost : it’s hollow sure, right-wing newspaper loves nothing more than a picture of a soldier drapped in the flag, on top an armored vehicle, while jets fly overhead the Dailies (Telegraph, Mail, Times) always are first to signal special troops are engaged “somewhere, in the thick of battle”, even when their use has not even been discussed, much less units being deployed. get out, and start to face reality Dailies are just smelly trash Best regards, No one expected a co signatory to be the aggressor when the deal was struck. It just goes to show you can’t trust anyone outside of the “Five Eyes” group of Nations what a messed-up and naive view of the world !! as an aside to the Budapest Memorandum, NATO was supposed to stay clear from ex-Warsaw Pact countries … most people understand the value that US and Brits give to signed agreement : they consider themselves to never be bound by any agreements if it conflicts with their immediate political preferences what were the first reactions of Reagan’s cabinet when the Falklands were invaded ? did framing Libya for Lockerbie was a problem for the rule of law and due process ? did invading Iraq with made-up “evidences” was in line with the respect of state’s sovereignty and UN procedures ? did british spies hacking european communication networks in line with best diplomatic practices between NATO allies ? there are very good reasons why Britain is derided as Perfidious Albion They spouted the same tut when we said we wouldn’t join the Euro then they said thank god we didn’t join the Euro. Why would Americans want to go & live in Europe to work? get real they take to foreign languages as well as we do. These rich bankers want to live in London, London, No where else It’s a lifestyle choice it says they have made it. Frankfurt? Lol get real who wants to live there, have you been? & Then you say the car industry will up sticks from the biggest growing market place in Europe, really? You do know the Nissan plant in Sunderland produces more cars than the whole of Italy does? You will be saying if we dont move over to left hand drive cars we will end up with cars as old as the ones in Cuba next lol The UK is a growing economy admitted its trade with the EU is dwindling but its growing elsewhere, we generated more jobs in the UK last years than the entire European Union did put together, you think that’s a declining country? It is more likely companies will move here to manufacture when we are outside the EU away from its daft red tape. Why do so many non UK companies sign trade deals in the UK, under UK law? Answer – Because they know what they are getting & no one is going to change the deal overnight. Americans? We are talking about Europeans here. It’s a question of lifestyle choice or language but regulation. Do you thing the financial sector is so developed in Switzerland because of language/life style? Come on. The financial center of the EU cannot stay outside they same has the EBA, it’s a question of rules. The Banking Union won’t apply in UK when it will be out. Do you think that EU will implement the Single Supervisory Mechanism and Single Resolution Mechanism to let EU banks operate from outside without respecting EU rules. The EU activities of the city will have to move. No choice. For the car industry, I said that the 10% im/export tax on car that was suggested is something crazy which would have a huge impact on the car industry: less import/export with UK. EU is a bigger market than UK. The impact would then be bigger on UK than EU. Easy to understand. The GDP of UK as a share of the world GDP is declining, so yes UK as the EU as a whole is a declining country. You said: It is more likely companies will move here to manufacture when we are outside the EU away from its daft red tape. But if they want to export to EU they would still need to face the EU red tape … and the 10% import tax suggest above. Nice !! Congratulations to the Euro morons Cameron “I am not paying that bill on the 1 December,” and added “If people think I am, then they have another thing coming.” Today he agreed to pay the 2,1 billion before September 2015. And he was proud enough to say that it was great deal. This guy is probably a bit schizo … You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 3 (updated: The European Court of Justice has allowed member states to block a 1.7% increase in salary for employees of the EU institutions because of exceptional circumstances caused by the financial and economic crisis. In a surprising move yesterday (19 November), the Court of Justice of the European Union that member states had the right to block a 1.7% pay and pensions increase for EU institutions’ staff from 2011. Although that same Court made an opposite ruling in 2010, this time judges took into account “the serious and sudden deterioration in the economic and social situation” in 2011, using (Annex XI, article 10) to justify blocking the pay increase for the EU’s civil servants. The EU executive’s calculation method of EU civil servants’ pay rise is based on a formula which links EU salaries to those of officials in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK, some of the wealthiest and most stable members of the EU. It also takes into account the cost of living in Brussels. The calculation method remained unquestioned for years, until the global economic crisis erupted in 2008. The UK government hailed the decision. “Europe’s governments have stopped the unjustifiable increases to EU salaries and pensions for 2011. When governments and families across Europe are taking difficult decisions to make savings, it would be wrong and irresponsible for the EU to not show similar restraint,” said Nick Morgan, economic secretary at the UK treasury. The European Commission, which defended the calculation method for the pay rise, “took note” of the ruling, saying it would implement it after studying it “carefully”, Commission spokesman Antonio Gravili told EURACTIV. “Assuming the 2012 pay adjustment court case is also withdrawn or receives the same judgment, it means that there is a pay freeze for EU officials in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The last pay increase (+0.1%) was in July 2010, and the next possibility of a pay adjustment will not be until 2015,” Gravili said. The salaries of the 55,000 EU civil servants vary from €2,600 to €18,400. On top of that, they enjoy expatriation bonuses, family allowances and free schooling for their children. The EU executive, however, came up with a proposal this year aimed at , including longer working hours and an increase of the retirement age. “If all of these proposals were implemented it would mean roughly a 60% pay cut in real terms over the next 15 years, Gravili said at the time. As austerity tightens its grip on the continent, the salaries and benefits of the EU institutions’ staff have become a prized target, with British Prime Minister David Cameron pushing for a to their income. The European Commission estimates that the proposed cuts under a revised staff regulation would result in a 60% reduction in EU staff purchasing power over the next 15 years. The proposals would also require EU staff to work longer hours for no more pay and increase the retirement age to 67 from 65. Staff contribution to pensions will also rise from 33 to 45%. The average retirement age for national public servants is under 63. EURACTIV Greece They have already more than enough ! STAFF 2.600 a 4.400 Euro Brutto, EU- Civil servants between 4.400 an 18.400 and finally EU-Kommissar earns 21.000 Euro and an Kommissions-president 25.000 Euro Brutto without premiums. Cheers At least in the UK, banksters, who caused the 2007/2008 crisis,and were bailed out by UK tax payers have been rewarding themselves with bumper pay rises (20%). The 1.7% rise thus seems rather modest. Still, in fairness, Eurocrats are not large contributors to Tory-vermin party funds, banksters & financial fraudsters, by contrast, contribute upwards 50% of said funds. Furthermore, EU legislation is seen as a pain in the backside by the Tory-vermin. Thus reducing EC pay could be considered a long-term effort by the Vermins to reduce the effectiveness of EC staff on the basis of – pay peanuts – get monkeys. @ an european What premiums? There are no bonuses, 13th salary etc. It is noteworthy that in 2011 – the year they questioned the 1,7% inflation adjustment – the governments in question gave themselves a rise. There are plenty of people employed in the Institutions already earning below MINIMAL legal wage in the country they work in. Not that Daily Mail and other rags will ever mention them, I’m sure… Indeed, Mike Parr, one does not get prime staff at such rates. By the way, is not ‘free schooling’ available to every European child? It’s not my intention to offend anyone here ! I agree in what Mr. Mike Parr says about the happening about British-bankers and their inadequate “Rothshild” behavior.They are disgusting everyone as well the tax-evaders and so on! UK-DEVIL-Bankers have to be abolished once fu..in’ for ever ! @ Carmen Don’t you think Martin Schultz or Mdm. Reding didn’t get premiums ?!! Nobody won’t believe in this! — “There are plenty of people employed in the Institutions already earning below MINIMAL legal wage in the country they work in” Indeed This has to tackle from south to the north with a minimum wage compensation either federal or similar…! Seems people are increasingly rioting seeing austerity measures without federal equalities in the 17th states of the union . -In seeing see such sums already published ! -The Kind of behavior what Dissjelbloem did with Cyprus in taking some inadequate measures in which Mario Draghi has to intervene to straight the roods again! -Kind of behavior of some fat-mans imposing job-lost workers to work whatever conditions are !! Whatever conditions are!!! It doesn’t wonder me anymore when unfortunately the european institutions is taken in visor as a scapegoat ! But it’s time for self defense and tell the EU-Leaders to fight against to much High and lows and compensate it t’s not my intention to offend anyone here ! I agree in what Mr. Mike Parr says about the happening about British-bankers and their inadequate “Rothshild” behavior.They are disgusting everyone as well the tax-evaders and so on! UK-DEVIL-Bankers have to be abolished once fu..in’ for ever ! @ Carmen Don’t you think Martin Schultz or Mdm. Reding didn’t get premiums ?!! Nobody won’t believe in this! — “There are plenty of people employed in the Institutions already earning below MINIMAL legal wage in the country they work in” Indeed This has to tackle from south to the north with a minimum wage compensation either federal or similar…! Seems people are increasingly rioting seeing austerity measures without federal equalities in the 17th states of the union . -In seeing see such sums already published ! -The Kind of behavior what Dissjelbloem did with Cyprus in taking some inadequate measures in which Mario Draghi has to intervene to straight the roods again! -Kind of behavior of some fat-mans imposing job-lost workers to work whatever conditions are !! Whatever conditions are!!! It doesn’t wonder me anymore when unfortunately the european institutions is taken in visor as a scapegoat ! But it’s time for self defense and tell the EU-Leaders to fight against to much High and lows and compensate it The excessive wages for EU officials distort local prices in Brussels. I can’t see why an EU officer should be paid more than a national one. It is not like we are in the 60ths and its diplomatic staff that gets compensated to live abroad. Beeing European is normal today, we do have to cut the excessive privileges of the Commission and the other EU institutions, at times where wages of all citizens are put under stress. As long as 50 000 people apply for 30 EU jobs there is still enough interest in a Commission career that would justify even lower wages according to the laws of supply and demand. In fact lower wages would attract more idealistic people that are better integrated into society than a EU official upper class with its privileges that sells out European interests to the US and panders to “stakeholder groups” instead of serving the peoples of Europe. At least a four years’ salary block, assorted with a 40 hours working week, a 5% staff decrease, retirement at 66 years. These are a few of the “punishments” or “modernizations” that were offered to the european officials for 2014. But UK and another 7 countries find this largely unsufficient. If EUsalaries are that attractive, why do we have such trouble in recruiting ? Especially in Luxemburg. Only people of a few EU countries still want to come : mostly Belgians, Greek, Spanish, Romanian, Bulgarian, Italian. UK citizens, and the other 7 countries wanting more punishment for EU officials don’t themselves want to come anymore : not paid enough ? or disliking EU ? Anyhow the new Statute states that the non recruitment of people from some nationalities should be looked nearerby … in order to pay UK nationals more than other citizens ? There we go again : “I WANT MY MONEY BACK” The Troika, of which the Commission makes part, imposes austerity on member states that exceed their budget. Austerity includes lower salaries for these member states’ officials. The EU hasn’t passed a single audit in more than 18 years time. Now it needs an extra 4 billion to close the current multi-annual budget. Time after time the EU needs extra money. Almost half of the Eurocrats work with the Commission. Who will impose austerity on them? I find the attitude of you all EU-bashing jerks really annoying. According to the very basic principles of liability and accountability, one can (and must) be held responsible for something (i.e. some decision, task, etc) if and ONLY if that decision or task was completely or mainly under their responsibility. This elementary principle also applies to the measures imposed to some EU countries: I, as an EU staff member, have ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with them, I didn’t decide them, nor was I ever consulted, nor did I ever advocate them. Therefore, sirs, sorry but it’s absolutely, completely NONE of my business: I can’t be held responsible or asked to share any potential burden or consequences of something that was completely out of my hands. Period. Moreover, this “salary hike”, as some of you jerks call it, is no hike whatsoever, but JUST a small compensation to make up for inflation and maintain our purchasing power. We, EU staff members, especially low- to mid-wage ones, enjoy full rights to keeping our purchasing power exactly as any other EU worker, be it in the public or in the public sector alike. For this reason, the ruling ECJ ruling is deeply unfair and appalling. It’ really, really sad to see it gave up its (supposed) impartiality to political pressure. So, guys, will you please cut the crap. Thank you. I find the attitude of you all EU-bashing jerks really annoying. According to the very basic principles of liability and accountability, one can (and of course must) be held responsible for something (i.e. some decision, task, etc) if and ONLY if that decision or task was completely or mainly under their responsibility. This elementary principle also applies to the measures imposed to some EU countries: I, as an EU staff member, have ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with them, nor was I ever consulted, nor did I ever advocate them. Therefore, sirs, sorry but it’s absolutely none of my business, and I can’t be held responsible or asked to share any burden or consequences of something that was completely out of my hands. Period. Moreover, this “salary hike”, as some of you dimwits call it, is no hike whatsoever, but just a small compensation to make up for inflation and maintain our purchasing power. We, EU staff members, especially low- to mid-wage ones, are entitled to keeping our purchasing power exactly as any other EU worker, be it in the public or in the public sector alike. For this reason, the ruling ECJ ruling is deeply unfair and appalling. It’ really, really sad to see it gave up its (supposed) impartiality to political pressure. So, guys, will you please cut the crap. Thank you. So, you feel annoyed? Well, well. Imagine how annoyed must feel a Portuguese official whose salary has been cut by you and/or your colleagues. You claim the perks of being an EU official but refuse the responsabilities that go with it. You ARE responsible for your acts! However small your share, you are responsible for Austerity and its salary cuts and Fortress Europe and its 1000’s of drawned. Nobody forces you to work with the EU. You are free to leave. Invoking authority in order to deny responsability is an old trick. Many bureaucrats used it at the Nuerenberg process: “Befehl is Befehl”. But we know better, don’t we? You seem to be a pro at bending the rules and the most elementary principles just to support your ridiculous arguments. I’ll try to reword them but I’m not too confident you’re smart enough to grasp them. We are responsile for our acts. Right. Sure. Indeed, I (and almost ALL of my colleagues for that matter) am responsible for the acts and decisions made while performing the activities required by my role, profile and hierarchy, which are the ONLY ones I can (and must) be held accountable and liable for. Your Nurnberg process argument is entirely flawed and irrelevant. Those who stood trial back then had, in their activity and duties, something to do with the matters in question, at least to some extent. Which is NOT the case, however, with myself nor most of my colleagues. I don’t have a major in economics, my duties have nothing to do with banks, economics and the like. So my share is absolutely ZERO and your argument is just made-up crap for mud-slinging purposes. Finally, you seem to “forget” (purposedly, I’d say) that keeping public debt under control is part of each country’s duties and responsibilities. Ever heard of the old but evergreen “Ant and Grasshopper” fable? It’s easy for “grasshopper” countries to live beyond their means and then blame it on their “ant” fellows. Exactly, precisely what happened to most of the crisis-ridden countries over the last couple of decades. Austerity was therefore invoked mainly by a bunch of EU countries (Germany in particular) willing to protect their investments. I’ve got nothing to do with all this and, I repeat, it is none of my business. Just common sense principles that people like you and your slow-witted EU-bashing comrades will never manage to understand. Welcome back Mike, I miss you! \U0001f642 Nobody forces you NOT to work with the EU. You are free to join (try a competition). @Emanuele I do not ambition to work for the EU. I ambition not to pay for the EU. But that’s a choice I do not have, unless I would emigrate to another continent (like many young Europeans have to do). First of all, let me apologise for not being as intelligent as you are. But I’ll do my best to keep up with a genius like you. When a member country exceeds its budgeet, the EU imposes austerity on all the member state’s officials -whether or not the department they work for exceeded budget. When the EU exceeds its budget, one should differentiate among EU officials. Why? The Nuerenberg process is quite appropriate, actually. Your reasoning is no different from a bureaucrat’s who claimed he had nothing to do with the Endlösung because he only stamped the invoices for the ovens. When the EU created Fortress Europe, a country like Libya for example received thousands of body bags. If you think the rules that apply to national officials do not apply to EU officials, dream on. If you want to wash your hands in innocence, go ahead. Anybody living beyond their means will, sooner or later, bear the consequences of their behavior. When a member country exceeds its budget, it’s its fault, or better, its ruling class has to be blamed for, not the other countries just (rightfully) asking for its debt to be kept under control. The EU, on the other hand, did not exceed its administrative budget, and the 2004 reform was already WAY more than enough to keep costs under control. Therefore the new reform and the latest ECJ ruling are just the result of a bunch of hawks using us as scapegoats to please their domestic public. Again, your Nurenberg process argument is plain outright bull**** (and I won’t even comment on the immigration issue, as it’s totally out of context here). Coming back to your crooked line of thinking, we didn’t even come close to “stamping the invoices” as you say, therefore it’s none of our business. Period. Do not try to narrow the issue down to the administration budget. National officials endure EU-imposed austerity not because their country exceeded its administration budget but because their country exceeded its overall budget. The EU exceeds its budget time after time. Just as keeping within the administration budget is irrelevant to the matter of austerity for national officials, it is irrelevant for EU officials. Strictly speaking even the EU Administration budget was not respected since higher pension contributions, one of the main drivers for the current reform, still are badly needed, even after the 2004 reform. Fortress Europe’s official name is Frontex. Frontex is a 100% EU creation. Its administrative HQ are in Warshaw, Poland. Frontex’ mission is to help Member States implement EU rules on border control. Nuerenberg is rather appropriate (but if you prefer to swear, go ahead). Frontex and its officials foresee in patrols, barb-wired fences, poisenous sprinklers,… These EU officials do a lot more than just stamping invoices. A lot more. I am right limiting the discussion to administrative costs, because the mission, purpose and cost breakdown of EU institutions are very different from those of any sovereign country: EU institutions, (especially the Commission) act mainly a means of regulation, harmonization and redistribution of funds among member states through the many policies and items that make up their total budget. The proportion of expenditure of the EU institutions for their own functioning is only about 6% of the total cost, which is WAY lower than any country whatsoever. Please, don’t compare apples and oranges. On the current reform, your statement is simply not true. It was NOT driven by the need for higher pension contributions, no way: in fact, the pension contribution has been slightly decreased lately. Instead, it all started back in 2011 with the Commission making a proposal to show EU institutions’ good will to share the burden of austerity, and it was already more than enough! But no, some vultures came up demanding more and more and putting unprecedented political pressure on EU institutions, only and exclusively to “please the rabble” and “punish the Brussels mob”. Lastly, since you’re insisting on including immigration in the discussion, looks like you belong to the group of those who think that Europe should be 100% open to immigration, a sort of “promised land” for everybody. Gosh, are you nuts or what? No way!! Europe should actually implement way stricter immigration policies to keep immigration at bay than it is currently doing, increasing support to bordering countries like Italy, Spain, Greece, etc. We’ve got already our so many problems of our own, we don’t need any additional ones. Thank you. Sooner or later, eventually, you’ll run short of your BS. Until then, there’ll always be the need for someone to put things back into right perspective. May I point out a fallacy in your reasoning: in one and the same paragraph you justify limiting the scope of the EU budget to its administration aprt because the latter would be representative for the whole budget, yet point out that this part only amounts 6% of the total budget. By the way, the reason why administration takes up a lower percentage is that the EU does not have any hands-on responsibilities. The (hard) work is left for the member states. Anyway, that being said, let’s call a spade a spade: A Portuguese official gets a cut in salary because the Portuguese budget has been exceeded. An EU official does not get a cut in salary though the EU budget has been exceeded. Apples and oranges, indeed. The EU is not self-sufficient regarding its pension fund, it simply isn’t. And the current Staff Regulation Reform DOES include a higher retirement age and DOES make staff pay higher pension contributions. Regarding immigration, I never said Europe should be the Promised Land. I only pointed out that the fences, patrols, body bags etc. are EU creations. One may still question its morality and efficiency, I hope. About calling a spade a spade, your argument is entirely flawed and can be easily turned against you. A Portuguese official get a salary cut. Fine. Maybe, an Irish and a Greek official also get a salary cut. To top it off, I may concede that *maybe* a Spanish official may see his salary a bit shaved off, but I’m not sure. But an Italian one will only a salary freeze, and that’s it as far as pay cuts go. Period. But then, on the other hand, German official even got a salary increase, and they’re not the only ones. Now let’s do the math. I’m gonna do it for you because I’m sure it’s too elaborate for a slow-witted numskull like you. The total population of the EU is about 500 million people, while the population of the countries I mentioned amounts to just about 70 million people (not including Italy, of course, where NO pay cuts in the public sector were applied), or roughly 14% of its total population. Now would you dare say that EU institutions should share exactly the same treatment of LESS THAN ONE SIXTH OF THE TOTAL EU POPULATION? Bull****!!! Come on, at least be honest and admit you hate the EU and you’d like to see us all sacked. One might or not agree with your position, but at least it would be more coherent and consistent. In one word, honest. Ever heard about the concept of an average, more precisely a weighted average of the treatment of ALL EU civil servants of the different nationalities? Such a calculation would most likely yield something way softer than the current reform, which in my eyes is just plain theft. But for frick’s sake, why on earth am I wasting my time trying to explain these things? It’s got to be too advanced of a concept for a retard like you. One final note: the new staff regulations indeed include some measures on pensions, but it’s not the biggest cost-saving measure, not the one giving raise to the reform. As a matter of fact, they slightly increased the retirement age and slightly decreased the pension accumulation rate for newcomers. Please check your sources before shooting loads of BS. Thank you. Despite your mind-boggling intelligence, you completely oversee one dimension: time. SO FAR only Greek, Portuguese and Spanish officials have endured dismissals and cuts in salaries and pensions. Italian and French officials, and probably those of other nations will soon follow. In your jargon: ever heard of a moving average? What a lame argument of yours. You are no fortune-teller, you don’t have a crystal ball, there is NO evidence, I mean, NOT a IOTA. So far it’a very small share of the total EU population, period. “Probably” or “maybe” or “who knows” are just hypotheses, not facts. You yourself showed the weakness of your arguments, and how easy it is to destroy them. Please come back in some years’ time with facts, not with hypotheses. Until then, you and all the EU-bashing idiots like you, please shut up. Indeed, I am not a fortune-teller, I just read the newspapers. Let’s take Spain, for example. Spain is NOT included in your 14%. Its 47 million inhabitants would increase that percentage considerably. “El País”, August 31 2013: Since 2011, the salaries of the Spanish officials have been frozen -2014 will be the 4th consecutive year. In 2010, Spanish officials even took a 5% salary cut. On top of this the Commission urges Spain to reforme its Labour Law by next year: it will be easier to lay off employees (officials included) Off to Italy and its 59 million inhabitants who are not included in your 14%. “Il Giornale”, November 13 2013: Among many other officials, 7,000 officials of the National Bank are subject to a pay freeze since 2010. Gosh Mike, did you know that the sum as a mathematical operation is normally taught in elementary school? \U0001f642 As a matter of fact Spain, you blockhead, IS included in my figures. I was not sure about the cuts but I included it in my calculation, just to be on the safe side. Greece pop. 10.7 million, Portugal 10.8, Ireland 4.7, Spain 47.0, amounts to a total of 73 million people or, as I wrote in a previous post of mine, “about 70 million”. ROFLMAO \U0001f642 Raw figures aside, the situation Spain is in is not a novelty, but has long been part of the current picture. So in NO WAY can it (or other countries such as Italy or France) be used as concrete evidence the situation will worsen any time in the future. Facts are facts, and they tell us that up until now NOT the whole of Europe, but just a SMALL portion of it, was significantly hit by the public debt crisis with layoffs and pay cuts. Nobody (including you) knows what will happen in the future: but anyway, potential risks can’t just be used as accomplished facts to support a deeply unjust EU staff reform. If (and only IF) the situation worsens, please do come back with figures and I’ll be more than happy to stand corrected. Until then, stop annoying us with your useless ranting. No, Italy indeed was not included in my figures, because they only got a salary freeze and no cuts. Even factoring Italy into the equation we get about 130 million people, or about 27% of the total EU population. This does not change the correctness of my argument: even ONE QUARTER of something CANNOT be considered as representative for the total. Your arguments, on the other hand, are clearly biased and ill-posed. In one simple word: wrong. Following your reasoning: the fact that ‘only’ 5 member countries impose austerity measures to their officials is reason to spare all EU officials for such measures? Having consulted but 2 newspapers, we nevertheless have gone up from 14 to 27%. Let us widen our scope and read on. The UK, 63 million inhabitants “Guardian”, June 27 2013: Automatic progression pay for civil servants will end in 2015. Until at least 2016 pay rises will be limited to 1%. In June 2012, the Head of Civil Service announced a package of reforms to the civil service. The reforms would bring and end to the officials’ jobs-for-life. France, 65 inhabitants “Le Figaro”, July 2 2012 : Since 2011 officials are subject to a pay freeze -the last pay increase, of 0,5%, was in 2010. Every year the number of officials is to shrink by 2,5%. Officials will no longer enjoy automatic career progression. The Netherlands, 16 million inhabitants “Rijksoverheid” website, May 5th 2013: The number of officials is to be cut by 60,000 by 2016 at the latest. Salaries are frozen since 2011. So, the counter now stands at 8 member countries who impose on their officials measures you claim you should be exempted from. Since you are the mathematical genius, I’ll leave the sums and percentages up to you. Ok, I admit, you have a point here. Still, the % of EU national civil servants affected by pay is very small, because the other examples you came up with only speak about pay freezes and staff cuts, but not layoffs or pay cuts. In our case, however, come January we’ll have a four-year pay freeze AND a pay cut with the reintroduction of the shameful “solidarity levy”. Just plain, downright theft: what a bunch of lamers! I’ve never claimed we should be exempted AT ALL from any cost-cutting measures, but that the original Commission proposal was more than adequate. Any more than that was just to please the EU-bashing rabbles, of which you yourself proved to be the typical specimen. But eventually, one day we’ll get compensation and revenge for being unjustly regarded and treated as defenseless scapegoats. Gentlemen, I would like to point out that we are not only talking about freezing salaries. The reform also cuts the staff numbers by 5% and increases the working time by 2.5h/week without salary increase, which means a 6,25% salary decrease. The reform also moves pensionable age to 66 and decreases the annuities to 1,8%, which means a minimum career of nearby 39 years. Careers are topped off 2 grades lower than they were, which means average 26% less salary at career end. Frederik, you’re totally right. Your point is exactly what I’ve been trying to explain to our dumbhead “friend”, but to no avail. Less than half of the total EU population has undergone restrictive measures, mostly consisting in a salary freeze, with only a few percent of national public sectors experiencing real restriction and painful salary cuts. This are just facts and not pointless ranting, and the facts clearly show that the EU institutions, which by their very nature represent the whole of Europe, have undergone restrictions way beyond what happened in an “average” EU country. For this reason, it feels like we’ve been robbed just to please a bunch of rascals. And to please idiots like Mike, who purposely ignore the HUGE benefits that half a century of EU and common market brought along. Mike, if you and you fellow EU mudslingers don’t like Europe, then by all means scram, frick off, emigrate somewhere else. You just don’t belong here. We’ll all be way better off without you and for sure, you’ll never be missed. So, according to you, unlike EU officials, national officials wouldn’t have had their salaries and pensions cut and/or their retirement ages raised? You must be joking! According to the European Institute: The UK is cutting 490,000 public sector jobs. Czech Republic will cut its number of officials by 2016 –the exact number is to be revealed. Denmark is cutting 20,000 public sector jobs. Finland will cut 5,000 public sector jobs by 2014. Germany will cut 10,000 public sector jobs by 2014. Italy will replace only 1 out of 5 officials who leave or retire. Malta will cut its number of officials by 50%. Poland is cutting 10% of its number of officials. Portugal’s higher paid officials took a 5% pay cut. Romania proposed to cut the salaries of its officials by 25%; their pensions by 15%. Slovenia will cut certain bonuses its officials enjoy. Cyprus’ officials have taken a 10% salary cut. Czech Republic constitutional officials took a 5% salary cut; all other officials will take an average pay cut of 10%. Bulgaria has frozen the salaries of its officials this year. Germany suppresses certain bonuses for its officials. Greece has cut allowances for public officials with 8%. Hungary has proposed wages ceilings for its officials. It also cuts in their jubilee bonuses. Ireland has cut public sector-wages by 5%. Italy will cut the salaries of officials earning more than € 90,000 by 5%, and those earning more than €150,000 by 10%. Latvia cuts public sector wages by 25%. Lithuania cuts the pensions of its officials by 11%. Slovenia unlinked the salaries from automated inflation adjustments Finland raises the retirement age from 63 to 65. France raised the age for a full-state pension from 65 to 67. Etc. Other countries, Belgium for instance, have not yet revealed their austerity measures because of upcoming elections (early 2014). Could you please do your math again? Thanks for your detailed list. As for the european public sector, the measures need a few lines: it will cut 2,000 public sector jobs (there are only 40,000 which mean cutting 490,000 like UK is impossible), it will apply a 12,25% salary cut as from 2014 (special levy+40h week) even 13,25% for senior officials, it freezes salaries from 2011 to 2014 (see also the Court’s decision) it will raise the retirement age from 63 to 66, it cuts yearly travel back-home bonus with around 30% and … there are no elections where EU officials can tell whether they agree or not. In fact every EU country around the Council’s table think about one “good” measure to apply to EU officials… in the first proposed package, salaries, retirement and bonuses would have been cut by more than 50%. It was finally not accepted as such \U0001f609 The fact is, countries like UK mourn because there are so few UK nationals among the EU officials. Any idea why ? Yes, indeed, they earn more back home… Mike, would you please provide a direct link ( or links) to your list? Thanks. Anyway, that list of yours that you put up so diligently does not affect my line of thinking and the VALID motivations underpinning it. The reasons were kindly provided by Frederik in his post, so I won’t repeat them again. The EU is an international organization whose functioning and purposes are complementary but at the same time significantly different from those of the public administration of the individual member states. As such, it is governed by different rules. For this reason, I repeat, the original Commission proposal was more than adequate. Anything more than that is (and was) plain and pure THEFT. Yeah, I’ll repeat it once again loud and clear: this reform was not a reform, but pure and unlawful THEFT, just to please the rabble of idiots like yourself. But sometime eventually we’ll get back the loot we’ve been robbed of. I took my data from the website of the European Institute, Just as EU officials do not have elections to tell whether or not they agree with the measures, nor do national officials who are hit by the Troika -I can’t remember last time EU citizens could vote for Barroso or Van Rompuy. I hate to be a bore but after the approval of the last Staff Regulation Reform, the net contributing member states issued a statement. Though they achieved sound results in EAAS, they consider the reform to be modest. They will keep modernising the EU force -the Commission is likely to need to propose further amendments to the Staff Regulations before the next Multiannual Framework (2021). For example, instead of replacing EU officials that retire, they could make more use of national officials. Mike, I think you are are understimating yourself. You’re not just a bore, but rather you fully deserve to be called a royal pain in the a**. For the coming year, whatever your job/occupation is, I hope you’ll get some random, unduly and unlawful cuts, i.e. a so-called “reform” akin to what we ourselves experienced. Then, please come back and do dare say you want more for us. As you sow so shall you reap. EU officials who, through decades of liberalisation and years of austerity, have degraded the working conditions and the number of national officials now see their own working conditions degrade, and themselves replaced… by national officials. Mike, I can’t help but leave this nonsense of yours unanswered. Your statement is clearly biased by frustration and hatred and shows you lack knowledge of some very basic facts. In short: it’s just downright bullshit. First off, liberalization and capitalism were by no means invoked or imposed by the EU, but rather it was the way the whole world was going towards. Second, when the member states joined the EURO signed clear treaties with clear terms that they decided to be bound by: nobody forced any country to sign the treaties. Third, this six-plus-year crisis stemmed from the banking sector and shifted towards public debt when the national governments tried to save many banks that would otherwise have collapsed leaving millions of people in poverty. Fourth, many national administrations are marked by utter inefficiency and bloating, and in times of dire economical situation, this problem came up in all its gravity. And the EU institutions have no control whatsoever over how national resources were managed and used (in many cases, just squandered) by the local governments. You are (intentionally, I’m sure) blaming the EU for everything, just because it’s too easy to find a scapegoat for the rabble without analyzing the real causes of a problem. You and useless morons like you should be banished from Europe. “I can’t help but leave this nonsense of yours unanswered” You’re right. Why can’t you just do like the rest of your Eurocrat colleagues and turn the lives of millions into misery, not give a rat’s ass about it and keep laughing your way to the bank? “liberalization and capitalism were by no means invoked or imposed by the EU” The Commission website proudly states: “The European Commission has been instrumental in opening up these markets to competition (also known as liberalisation)”. Other countries have not liberalised to the degree the Commission imposes, or not at all, yet cope much better with economic crises than the EU does. “many national administrations are marked by utter inefficiency” The EU administration is not any more efficient. The EU does not have any hands-on responsibilities. How many Eurocrats does it take to write a consultative paper or a regional view versus how many national officials does it take to implement and follow up all these rules? Besides, if the EU were efficient there wouldn’t be that many quangos and it would not exceed budget time after time. And, please, do not use the argument of the EU’s different mission to justify its deficit. Contrary to other member states, Belgium for instance guarantees people with a minimum of electricity, gas and water (and soon telephone) even if these people do not pay their bills. This system and its infrastructure cost Belgium millions of Euros a year. Though Belgium’s “mission” is different, the Commission will not allow Belgium to exceed its budget more than any other member state. I am not looking for scapegoats. I only state that Eurocrats who impose measures on their national peers, should expect the same measures being applied to themselves. What’s sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander. How stupid and slow-witted you are. Liberalization was fostered and encouraged (and by no means imposed) by the Commission no to create cut-throat competition, but to take out de facto monopolies and cartels, and to avoid public-owned companies to “kill the market”. As a result, a huge, continent-wide market was created with free circulation of peoples and goods, and with plenty of business opportunities for those individuals and companies willing to take the challenge. You fail to acknowledge (purposely, I’m sure) the vast benefits the common market brought along. Whenever the EU budget was exceeded, it’s always been for policy support reasons and never for its own functioning. Some policies, such as the CAP for example, are indeed questionable, but they have been agreed upon at EU level, so they’re not “EU’s fault” but the “Member States’s fault”. So, once again your stupid and lame arguments prove to be flawed. The more I read your crap, the more I think how gullible and naive you were to buy all the BS from the EU-bashing dimwits such as the UKIP. How stoopid you are \U0001f642 Isn’t it remarkable how Eurocrats always claim liberalisation yet shield themselves from it? Whereas national civil servants and private sector employees must accept work conditions that go with the free market, Eurocrats preserve their privileges that go with a state monopoly. The free market embraces temporary contracts. It pushes for permanent contracts that can be terminated at any time, with or without a reason, with or without redundancy payment. Eurocrats, however, enjoy job security. The EU has liberalised several industries –energy, utilities, telecom… The now privatised companies offshore entire departments. IT services, accounting, payroll administration,… Tasks that for decades have been done by national officials are now being done outside the EU. Many a Eurocrat, however, enjoys lavish pay and perks for doing rather menial tasks. Thanks to EU legislation, private sector employees now compete with ‘posted’ workers. Yet Eurocrats, despite their expensive expat package, do not have to compete with high skilled, multilingual East Europeans who, even in Brussels, work ridiculously cheap. In the EU, an employer can move the office to a neighbouring country. Staff has to accept local conditions. Employees that do not move with the company may be denied redundancy payment. Eurocrats, however, receive a lifelong expat package for working in the country they elected. When will Eurocrats get a taste of their own medicine? Dear Friend, Being a eurocrat, I must admit that Eurocrats through the job they do, are de facto accomplice with liberalisation but yet shield themselves from it. It would therefore be a good live experience they indeed would undergo the same treatment as the one they offer to people on the free market. Just as it would be good to diminish CEO’s revenue in the same way they diminish their staff’s revenue. However, things evolve and also the eurocrat world undergoes changes in the same way as private sector. As an example, more and more temporary agents and contract agents (max. 6 year) are recruited on very low market conditions. A new category of secretary/clark officials was created 15% below the lowest official salary, evenso that in Luxembourg the EU cannot recruit that low, because it’s below Luxemburg’s minimum legal salary… However, the EU recruits based on competitions, in which your “high skilled, multilingual East Europeans” are allowed to compete with any other european national. And the practice shows that, apart from polish, romanian and bulgarian, they don’t come (anymore). Probably because they estimate it’s paid too much ??? So, if you want staff to “accept local conditions”, I’m not only afraid but sure that still less nationals will overcome. Already now, only one third of the nationalities come. So what’s the remedy ? At long last we are getting to the crux of the problem. Thanks. Tax-free fees, a special income tax system, generous holidays etc. tend to attract the wrong candidates. In fact, among the people who criticize the EU a lot care more about Europe than many Eurocrats do. In the US, somebody who moves 4,000 km from Seattle to Washington does not join the public forces because he/she wants a Eurocrat-style decadent holiday scheme, a pervert income tax system and extravagant tax-free fees. He/She joins the public forces because he/she wants to serve his/her people. A company or institution that is full of money-grubbing prima donnas just doesn’t perform. Even in the free market, companies that perform best are not the ones who pay the higher salaries, but rather those who foster teamwork. The fact that the burden of every EU staff regulation reform is placed entirely on recently joined staff tells a lot. So, for a remedy –for EU staff as well as Europe’s future– I propose the EU recruits people who care about Europe. The EU offers opportunities (a steady job abroad that matches one’s education, the opportunity to operate in an international environment, sufficient training, childcare,… ) other companies and institutions cannot. Oh boy, I just wonder why on earth I find myself on New Year’s Eve commenting your crap. Maybe because I would like the people who read this page to read the truth, and not just your ranting. “Eurocrat-style decadent holiday scheme, a pervert income tax system and extravagant tax-free fees”? What a load of crap this is. 1) There is no such thing as a “decadent holiday scheme”. 24 days of annual leave, plus 18 days between closing days and national holidays. This is pretty common for Europe, and for public administration in particular. When I was working in the PRIVATE sector, I had 33 days of annual leave + national holidays, which – surprise surprise – yields pretty much the same result. 2) “pervert income tax system”. Wrong. Wrong. We pay income tax (8% to 45% with taxation bands), and pension, health and accident insurance contributions. I admit the overall resulting taxation rate is indeed lower than most national tax systems, but we DO PAY TAXES. So would you please shut up. 3) “tax-free fees”? WTF! VAT exemption is ONLY for the first year, and not even for all sites. Period. Then we pay all taxes just like normal citizens. Finally, you have a very twisted concept of what liberalization is all about. First off, the loss of jobs in Western Europe is mainly the result of globalization, which is an irreversible process the EU cannot do much about. You know, private businesses have profit as their first goal, so they’ll always tend to move to countries with cheaper labor and less regulation. And this would have happened with or without the EU. Never, ever have I seen acknowledged anywhere the fact that the EU has created a HUGE, continent-wide market with a host of new business opportunities. I hope you purposely avoided to acknowledge that, otherwise it would be a clear evidence of how ignorant and narrow-minded you are. I’ve had enough of commenting your BS. But sooner or later, you’ll eventually run out of your crap. I have a feel you are no Eurocrat at all and that you only want to collect facts. Maybe you are a would-be Eurocrat, studying for the entry exams, and with every staff regulation reform see your future returns diminish. Well, whoever you are, I’ll give you a hand. Most of the data I use are on the EU’s Staff Regulations website. 1) There is no such thing as a “decadent holiday scheme”. Yes there is. It is utmost decadent, to be precise. Take for example a 54-years-old Austrian Eurocrat. Under the current staff regulations, this Eurocrat enjoys the following holidays: – 24 days annual leave and 19 public holidays and office closing days; – 3 days because of his/her age; – 6 days off to visit the homeland; – 5 days off in one of his/her service years; – 24 flexitime days; – 2 days off in case he would move. That makes 83 days. This is roughly 4 months of holidays! 2) “pervert income tax system” Pervert it is, indeed. The first 2,450 € a month are free of tax. In Brussels, whereas a Eurocrat earning 7,600 € a MONTH pays an overall tax rate of 11% anyone else earning € 23,900 per YEAR already pays an overall tax rate of 28%. Even the 6% solidarity level is a deceit. It does not apply to the first 2,450 €/month any Eurocrat earns. I.e. only a handful of Eurocrats pay a figure that comes near 6% of ‘solidarity’. 3) “tax-free fees”? To list but a couple: – an expat fee: 16% of base salary – a lodging fee: 5% of base salary – a fee per child of 247,86 €/month – a school attendance fee per child of 221,5 €/month – … All these fees are free of tax. But if you work at the EU, you ought to know all of this better than I do. As for all the globalization and/or liberalization you praise, I only wish it would apply to Eurocrats as well. Fortunately, the latest staff regulation is a first step towards it: 2,500 jobs previously done by officials with a job-for-life will now be carried out by people working with a temporary contract. Hopefully, further staff regulation reform will raise the bar and many more Eurocrat jobs will be replaced by temporary jobs –“Globalisation and Liberalization for Eurocrats: an Introduction”. Dear Mike, -since 1.1.14, the 6 days off to visit the homeland have been replaced by 2.5 days for expats only; -the 5 days off in one service years is a one time gratification after 20 years, not recurrent; -flexitime hours are only the mathematical counterpart of hours performed above the 40H/week, and not a present; -Lodging fees are only granted to very high officials, like commissioners or judges. -School attendance fees are only granted for children not visiting european school and proving at least the exposed real cost. -The solidarity levy of 6 or 7% is not levied on the entire salary because this required a change in treaties as it would become then part of the income tax. The European politicians found this procedure too long. Again these comments: – Comparing to belgian income tax is stupid, because it has the highest income tax in Europe; there are 27 other countries… – Comparing to Luxembourg income tax would be as stupid, because their income tax is even lower than the european one, often 0% when there are 2 children. – European income tax is net, no deductions of insurance, mortgage, personnel, car nor any other cost is possible. These can give you a very high advantage eg. in Belgium. You also don’t have a company car. In Belgium, half of the sold cars are company cars!! Mike, I am what I am, but the more I read your ranting, the more I think you are just an envious and frustrated d*ckhead who’s bashing the EU all the time just for the sake of it. This time I leave it up to Frederik to reply with sound arguments that easily demolished your “four months of holidays”. Bullshit. You mindlessly read the staff regulations and summed all the figures up. No comment. “-since 1.1.14, the 6 days off to visit the homeland have been replaced by 2.5 days for expats only;” Indeed, this reduction is one of the achievements of the latest staff regulation reform. “-the 5 days off in one service years is a one time gratification after 20 years, not recurrent;” Time off for service years IS recurrent. Officials having 20 years of service shall receive 5 extra days off each 5th extra service year. “-flexitime hours are only the mathematical counterpart of hours performed above the 40H/week, and not a present;” Flexitime is a present though. In countries like Belgium, as of a certain level (called “cadre”, “kader” or “Kader”) an office worker does NOT receive any compensation for overtime. In 2010, even AD16 Eurocrats each took on average 6,2 Flexitime days. Actually, 4 months of holidays is quite modest a figure. Take EAAS staff for instance. An EP working document (2012) gives the example of an EU official who is based outside Europe. He/She is entitled to 93 holidays! His German diplomatic peer, a nation official, ‘only’ has 46 holidays. Fortunately, the latest staff regulation reform reduced this debauchery. “Comparing to Belgian income tax is stupid…” No, it is not! You live and work in Brussels. You have a net income that is far superior to people who pay local income taxes. E.g. with regards to property you compete with people who are subject to local income taxes. Thanks to your special income tax system and tax-free fees this competition is extremely unfair. “- European income tax is net, no deductions of insurance, mortgage, personnel, car nor any other cost is possible. These can give you a very high advantage e.g. in Belgium. You also don’t have a company car. In Belgium, half of the sold cars are company cars!!” Why only telling half the truth? Why not mentioning the ‘diplomatic car sales’, the tax on a second home you are exempted from in Brussels, the special mortgage interest rates banks and the reduced car insurance banks offer Eurocrats,…? I looked though the staff regulations, but I found no trace of no such thing as a 5-day special leave, so I won’t comment on that. As far as the rest goes, your post is (as always) full of lies. Flexitime is by NO MEANS a present, but it’s just DUE compensation for overtime work when it is not paid. In fact its use is quite widespread, both in the public and in the PRIVATE sector. Again, at my previous employer (a multinational group about the size of the EU itself) we had 14 hours/month of flexitime, with one disadvantage (we had 14 hours instead of 16 so that we could not take two full days), but with a BIG advantage, i.e. we could take flexitime by the half hour instead of half day, which was WAY more flexibile than it is in the EU institutions. Talking about tax rates, it SURE makes much sense to compare the taxation level of EU wages with that of LUX and other EU countries, because there are THOUSANDS of EU staff working in sites spread across Europe and around the world: 3000 in Luxembourg, around 2000 in Italy, not to mention the thousands in the various agencies (who are also bound by the staff regulations, albeit with some differences) and in the various delegations. So your statement is completely wrong (as usual). As for the other perks, they should really be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. It is quite common for big international groups (including private ones) and public administrations to have special deals for their employees for things like loans, car insurance, etc, and the EU is no exception, but not a special one. For example, I had one such deal on my car insurance when I was with my previous employer, which I kept because the rate for EU staff was actually less convenient. So why on earth should it be OK for private groups or national public administrations but not for the EU to have such deals for their staff? The correct answer is: There’s nothing wrong with it, except for EU-bashing idiots like you! \U0001f642 “I looked though the staff regulations, but I found no trace of no such thing as a 5-day special leave.” If you really work for the EU, you will find out about it the day you’ll have 20 years of service. I am sure your (older) colleagues can provide you with more details. “Flexitime is by NO MEANS a present” In Belgium, for example, besides white-collar workers who belong to the “cadre” and do not receive any compensation for overtime, blue collar workers have to pay the higher tax rate on each hour of overtime -up to 52%. So, Flexitime IS a present to all EU staff working in Belgium. “it SURE makes much sense to compare the taxation level of EU wages with that of LUX and other EU countries” It goes without saying that EU staff in a particular country -Luxembourg, Spain, Poland, Portugal- should not enjoy tax rates that are significantly lower than the national rates, especially when the size of the staff is not negligible (as is the case in Brussels). “So why on earth should it be OK for private groups or national public administrations but not for the EU to have such deals for their staff?” I never said such deals should not be allowed to EU staff. Eurocrats are keen to mention the few perks they do not enjoy -in this instance a lease car- to justify their low income taxes and tax-free fees. On top of this, they always keep silent about perks they do enjoy and other people don’t -lower mortgage rates, for example. By the way, how many national officials would drive a lease car? “EU-bashing idiots like you” Allow me to point out that criticizing outdated privileges that go back to the 60s, 50s even, and EU-bashing are two different things. Raising questions about staff that is on holidays one quarter -one third even- of the year isn’t EU-bashing either. The new Greek EU presidency will do without EU officials. It will give Greek national servants the opportunity to show Europe’s taxpayers that it does not take an expat package, a tailor-made income tax system and a massive holiday scheme to do this kind of work. Last but not least, asking for a modern Administration is quite different from EU-bashing: it is asking for people who are interested in the EU, and not just in their own benefit. Your approach The EU is a supranational and international organization, therefore your comparison with just the Belgian situation is too limited. 1) Tax rate: first and foremost any discriminations among EU staff working in the different 27 (now 28) EU states must be avoided. Therefore the tax rate has to be EXACTLY the same for ALL EU staff regardless of their workplace. 2) As far as flexitime goes, once again it is of paramount importante to compare the EU staff rules with those in force in the different member states. I’m not familiar with each and every situation, but I’m pretty sure you’d be in for some surprise – I know for a fact that flexitime (or some equivalent thereof) is of quite widespread use for example in France and other countries. Therefore your argument is flawed. 3) Again on tax rate: since for EU staff the employer is also the tax collector, it would be advisable to just publish the net salary grids without any tax rate calculation – after all, if the tax is not due to a third party but just to your employer itself, at the end of the day what REALLY counts is your take-home salary. 4) Yes, it’all about EU bashing. You dimwits couldn’t care less about modernization… “Modernize” in your EU-bashing dimwit view ONLY means cutting, and nothing else. 5) I don’t think many Greek national servants (of those working in their home country with their current employment conditions, I mean) will be involved in running the Greek presidency… yet another flawed argument of yours. 6) You missed (not surprisingly) my point: that is, the overall package of perks (lower rates, medical insurance, etc.) that nowadays EU staff enjoy is not so different from (and sometimes, not even so much better that) deals enjoyed by the employees of many big companies or national administrations. And furthermore, these deals do not affect the total spending, i.e. it’s not about taxpayers’ money. So pointing the finger to EU staff has NO rational justification whatsoever, except for petty demagogy. “Therefore the tax rate has to be EXACTLY the same for ALL EU staff regardless of their workplace.” Frankly, I cannot see why this should be the case. People working with multinationals pay local tax rates, not one unique corporate-specific tax rate that would apply to all staff around the globe. “As far as flexitime goes, once again it is of paramount importante to compare the EU staff rules with those in force in the different member states.” Same answer. “Again on tax rate: since for EU staff the employer is also the tax collector, it would be advisable to just publish the net salary grids without any tax rate calculation – after all, if the tax is not due to a third party but just to your employer itself, at the end of the day what REALLY counts is your take-home salary.” Unless every EU citizen time after time keeps funding your pension fund, which is the case because you pay too little income tax to fund it yourself. Unless EU citizens pay local taxes you do not pay -2nd residence in Brussels for instance- and therefore are paying for infrastructure (gas, electricity, public transport etc.) you use as well. This is called free-rider behaviour. “Yes, it’all about EU bashing. You dimwits couldn’t care less about modernization” No, it is not. You would be surprised. EU citizens, some paying up to 52% income tax rates, have to pay duplication of staff (EU embassies along national embassies, national vs EU army on top of national armies, EU central bank on top of national central banks etc.). On top of this we witness the EU’s incompetence in several matters (CAP, Frontex, €, Austerity etc.) yet know that Eurocrats are on our off partying one quarter to one third of the year. “I don’t think many Greek national servants (of those working in their home country with their current employment conditions, I mean) will be involved in running the Greek presidency… yet another flawed argument of yours.” As a matter of fact, Greece will not use a single Eurocrat. ALL the work will be done by national officials. Too bad for you. “You missed (not surprisingly) my point: that is, the overall package of perks (lower rates, medical insurance, etc.) that nowadays EU staff enjoy is not so different from (and sometimes, not even so much better that) deals enjoyed by the employees of many big companies or national administrations. And furthermore, these deals do not affect the total spending, i.e. it’s not about taxpayers’ money. So pointing the finger to EU staff has NO rational justification whatsoever, except for petty demagogy.” You did not get my point, you did not even read it, it seems. I just stated that Eurocrats are keen to use the couple of perks they do not have to justify their low income tax rates and tax-free fees. From the looks of it “flawed” must be your favourite word in the dictionary. You even use it inappropriately. Whatever, especially after the upcoming EU elections, the Brussels party scene will gradually come to an end. There is still plenty of fat that can be cut. < < Frankly, I cannot see why this should be the case. People working with multinationals pay local tax rates, not one unique corporate-specific tax rate that would apply to all staff around the globe.>> Local branches of multinational companies are meant for doing business locally, therefore they are legal entities set up and incorporated according to the local law: consequently, they must abide by local law also as far as taxation goes. On the other hand, the EU is an international organization, and most (if not all) international organizations (such as the UN, ESO, CERN, OECD, EU Patent Office, you name it!) are governed by different principles. All staff share the same salary and benefit package regardless of their place of work, and a multiplicative coefficient is applied to ensure the purchasing power is equivalent. < < “As far as flexitime goes, once again it is of paramount importance to compare the EU staff rules with those in force in the different member states.” Same answer >> Wrong. As an international organization, with presence across the whole of Europe, the EU MUST be compared with national legislation across the different countries. Unsurprisingly, you’ll find out that use of flexitime (or equivalents thereof) is in fact quite widespread, in public administration and private companies alike. So it’s NOT a gift, but consolidate practice. < < Unless every EU citizen time after time keeps funding your pension fund, which is the case because you pay too little income tax to fund it yourself. >> As with every contract and collective agreement, one’s pension accumulation is shared between the employee and the employer: we pay our share and the EU pays its. Whether you like it or not, that’s the way it works EVERYWHERE, unless you are a free-lance contractor. This is downright BULLSHIT, you liar. There are VERY FEW known exceptions, the most important of which is income tax. Otherwise, we DO pay all local taxes on utilities, infrastructure, etc: local VAT, transportation, gas, electricity, just like ANY other normal citizen. < < As a matter of fact, Greece will not use a single Eurocrat. ALL the work will be done by national officials. >> … many of which will most likely be working on temporary assignment with one of the EU institution. I wonder what salary package they enjoy during their temporary assignment. Not that there is nothing wrong with it, but I would be interested in the details. For the sake of precision and transparency. < < You did not get my point, you did not even read it, it seems. I just stated that Eurocrats are keen to use the couple of perks they do not have to justify their low income tax rates and tax-free fees>> Don’t mix apples and oranges. While there is no such thing as “tax-free fees” (please show me, Mr. Know-it-all, ‘cause I can’t find any), exemption from local income tax has NOTHING to do with our perks, but instead is a cornerstone of international law governing pretty much all international organizations (see above). And international law and treaties ain’t no trifle, you know, whether you like it or not!!! As our benefit package, just look around and you’ll find out that it’s no big deal compared with hundreds of people working for other international organizations and private multinationals enjoy. < < From the looks of it “flawed” must be your favourite word in the dictionary. You even use it inappropriately.>> Definition of “flaw” according to the Merriam Webster dictionary: “a: a defect in physical structure or form, b : an imperfection or weakness and especially one that detracts from the whole or hinders effectiveness” Not only is the use of “flawed” correct, but the above definition fits very well the average low quality of your reasoning and statements. If you want me to stop using that word, please support your writing with more concrete, evidence-based arguments instead of EU-bashing babble. < < Whatever, especially after the upcoming EU elections, the Brussels party scene will gradually come to an end. >> If the member states want to have their powers back, fine with me, but in that case they’ll have to go through channels by renegotiating the treaties, which is a “long and winding road”. Sorry to disappoint you, dude. “Local branches of multinational companies are meant for doing business locally, therefore they are legal entities set up and incorporated according to the local law” For years I have been working in the London regionl headquarters of a major oil company. We supervised operations in Europe, West-Africa Middle-East and Pakistan –a region many times bigger than the EU. Apart from a small group of expats, all of us –Australians, Russians, Lebanese etc. – were on local payroll and paid local tax rates. Fortunately, it looks like the EU is moving towards this system: permanent staff hired in Belgium and temps are not on an expat package either. With regards to Flexitime, I believe the latest Staff Regulation reform already contains a clause that excludes senior staff from making use of it. This is similar to the “cadre”/”kader” principle. How peculiar! “This is downright BULLSHIT, you liar.” Let’s stick to the facts, shall we? European tax payers pay 50% of your social security expenses. European tax payers previously paid 50%, now 33% of your pension costs. Just to give you one example, in Brussels Eurocrats are exempted from a € 960,00 tax on a second home: Sad but true: even after 53 posts you haven’t managed to refute a single claim of mine. It seems all you are capable of is insulting people. “I wonder what salary package they enjoy during their temporary assignment.” Do you? Well, in any case it won’t be an expat package, tax-free fees and 3 to 4 months of holidays. “While there is no such thing as “tax-free fees” (please show me, Mr. Know-it-all, ‘cause I can’t find any)” Do you really work with the EU? I mean, really? If so, you could just check your pay slip. Otherwise consult the official website of your would-be employer: “they’ll have to go through channels by renegotiating the treaties, which is a “long and winding road”. Sorry to disappoint you, dude.” In 9 years’ time we’ve already had 2 staff regulation reforms that changed your pay & perks considerably. Nine years isn’t such a long and winding road. To give you an idea: it may take them less time to reform than you to retire. Actually, they do not have to renegotiate the treaties. That’s the good news, you see. Even before the next MAF, the Commission will have to amend the staff regulations because it inevitably will exceed the Administration budget. Soon, there will be more sensible MEPs who will join the net contributing states in their effort to modernise the EU staff. All the better for Europe, I would say. < < Fortunately, it looks like the EU is moving towards this system: permanent staff hired in Belgium and temps are not on an expat package either >> Staff hired in their country of origin do not get expat allowance. But it’s nothing new, it’s always been like that (and in this case, I agree with this rule). < < With regards to Flexitime, I believe the latest Staff Regulation reform already contains a clause that excludes senior staff from making use of it. This is similar to the “cadre”/”kader” principle. How peculiar!>> Nope, the new staff regulations stipulate that senior staff can take only half a day off at a time, but they enjoy the same amount of overtime compensation as the lower-level staff. < < Let’s stick to the facts, shall we? European tax payers pay 50% of your social security expenses. European tax payers previously paid 50%, now 33% of your pension costs. >> Yeah, and so what? All public and local administrations and international organizations are funded with taxpayers’ money. The EU is just one item on the list, which is as worthy of funding as the others. Then it’s just an exception, because there is no such exemption from local taxes in any other EU site other than Brussels and (probably) Luxembourg. < < Sad but true: even after 53 posts you haven’t managed to refute a single claim of mine >> Gosh, I’ve tried to explain to you COUNTLESS times (or better, 53 times) that 1) the rules and principles governing the EU are laid down in the international treaties, and are VERY different from those governing national administrations and private companies, and that 2) IF you really want to make comparisons, you have to compare the EU with other international institutions (and NOT with national administrations or private companies!!!), and you’ll find that it generally ranks towards the lower end of the salary and package table The above two points account for pretty much differences and apparent inconsistencies, whether you like it or not. But in spite of this, you’ve always ignored (purposely, now I’m 100% sure) this fact, just replying with your EU-bashing crap. < < It seems all you are capable of is insulting people >> If you are so slow-minded that you don’t understand my simple (and well-supported) reasoning, then I feel really sorry for you and in that case please, accept my sincere apologies. Otherwise I don’t like being made a fool of: is that clear? < < Do you really work with the EU? I mean, really? If so, you could just check your pay slip.>> Done. Basic salary, tax, pension contribution, deductions for medical and accident insurance. That’s it. < < In 9 years’ time we’ve already had 2 staff regulation reforms that changed your pay & perks considerably. Nine years isn’t such a long and winding road. To give you an idea: it may take them less time to reform than you to retire. >> Don’t be so sure, my dear. The 2004 reform was the first in almost 50 years, and it took place together with the biggest enlargement ever: it was due because with ten new member states the costs would have gone out of proportion. Last year’s one (which, BTW, will yield way lower savings than the 2004 one), instead, was pushed by some hawks just to show that they did something for “The Brussels Mob to share the burden of the crisis”. The general public can quite easily be stirred up, but fortunately it has a short-lived memory. If Europe eventually manages to get out of the crisis, we’ll plunge back into oblivion in no time. “Nope, the new staff regulations stipulate that senior staff can take only half a day off at a time, but they enjoy the same amount of overtime compensation as the lower-level staff.” If you say so. But doesn’t article 56 of the EU Staff Regulations state the following: “Overtime worked by officials in M112 function group AD, and in function group AST 5 to 11 shall carry no right to compensation or remuneration”? “IF you really want to make comparisons, you have to compare the EU with other international institutions” As you wish. Let us compare with other international institutions. Well, it looks like you’re all in the same boat! The FAO will conclude a long-due reform. The agency will cut staff and implement “sweeping changes in the agency’s HR policy.” The latter statement includes moving Accounting to Budapest and dismantling (i.e. outsourcing) its IT department. Or take the UN for example. The UN approved the first budget cut since it came into existence! It will freeze salaries and allowances. It will also cut staff. In the words of a UN ambassador the cutting represents “the best that we as member states can muster at these times of continuing austerity.” Another UN ambassador on the new budget: “a commitment to real fiscal discipline at a tough time for hardworking families around the world.” Why can’t Barroso and people like you be of the same moral standard? So, again, while other supranational officials are subject to austerity, why should Eurocrats get off scot-free? “Done. Basic salary, tax, pension contribution, deductions for medical and accident insurance. That’s it.” So you should have noticed that your allowances and fees are tax-free, as the slow-witted person told you they are. “Don’t be so sure, my dear.” I am afraid that, with “austerity for you, a pay rise for us”, Eurocrats have gone one bridge too far. The gap between Eurocrats and the rest of Europe has become too wide. Your work conditions date from the 60s, 50s even. Meanwhile, through liberalisation, trade deals, ‘posted’ workers etc., you have degraded everybody else’s work conditions. On top of this, new technology has changed the world. Cfr. the availability of commercial airlines and the number of days you get off to visit your home country. Just as you impose flexibility on Europe’s workforce, it will apply to Eurocrats as well. Even if Europe would catch up again, the jobs that have been offshored East will never come back. As a matter of fact, COREPER already announces cuts in the 2014 Administration budget. Not only the little people, the slow-witted ones as you call them, have become aware. Your staff regulations have been reformed twice; now the European Court of Justice blocks your pay rise etc. Slowly but surely common sense will prevail. But doesn’t article 56 of the EU Staff Regulations state the following: “Overtime worked by officials in M112 function group AD, and in function group AST 5 to 11 shall carry no right to compensation or remuneration”?” “Compensation” means “no FINANCIAL compensation”, i.e. no pay for overtime work. In fact M131 states “The appointing authority of each institution may introduce flexible working-time arrangements. Under those arrangements, entire working days shall not be granted for officials in grade AD/AST 9 or higher. Those arrangements shall not be applicable to officials to whom the provisions of the second paragraph of Article 44 apply. Those officials shall manage their working time in agreement with their superiors.”. To make a long story short, everybody except unit heads can do flexitime, the only restriction being that staff in grades >=AD/AST9 can take only half a day off at a time. “So, again, while other supranational officials are subject to austerity, why should Eurocrats get off scot-free?” First, you provided just two examples. The FAO and the UN are not the only organizations out there. Anyway – I repeat – the point is I NEVER said we should be immune from any reform at all. I said that major savings were ALREADY made with the 2004 reform, so that in 2013 anything more than small adjustments (i.e. the EC’s original proposal dating back to 2011) was (and IS) blatantly unfair. “So you should have noticed that your allowances and fees are tax-free” I see no allowances as I am not entitled to them, but a “tax” item that speaks for itself is on the list. “Meanwhile, through liberalisation, trade deals, ‘posted’ workers etc., you have degraded everybody else’s work conditions” This is a downright lie. Outsourcing and offshoring is a trend that has nothing to do with the EU institutions. The EU has just created and fostered conditions for a more dynamic market, but NEVER said businesses should relocate to the Far East. But it happened in Europe just as everywhere else (i.e. in the U.S. or in Japan). It’s called “globalization” and it’s got nothing to do with the EU. “Just as you impose flexibility on Europe’s workforce, it will apply to Eurocrats as well. Even if Europe would catch up again, the jobs that have been offshored East will never come back.” See above: it’s just a global trend, period. For the sake of accuracy, it must be pointed out that on the other hand, the EU has created a continent-wide market with plenty of opportunities for businesses willing to grasp them. “Slowly but surely common sense will prevail.” “Common sense” is not equal to “pointless cuts”. Eventually NONsense will NOT prevail. “I said that major savings were ALREADY made with the 2004 reform, so that in 2013 anything more than small adjustments (i.e. the EC’s original proposal dating back to 2011) was (and IS) blatantly unfair.” After the cuts that Member States and other international institutions have implemented, the 2013 EU Staff Regulation Reform is not particularly unfair at all. Unless you consider unfair cutting EAAS holiday schemes of up to 96 days/year. 96 days off, that’s almost 5 months off. That would be a part-time job to all of us, mere mortals. “I see no allowances as I am not entitled to them, but a “tax” item that speaks for itself is on the list.” Colleagues of yours who are entitled to allowances will notice these allowances are 100% tax-free. “This is a downright lie. Outsourcing and offshoring is a trend that has nothing to do with the EU institutions.” No lie whatsoever. Outsourcing and offshoring deal a lot more with politics, and a lot less with economics, than you imagine. Let us take an example. When the EU signed a trade deal with Bangladesh, the country in no time became the world’s leader in the textile business. Overnight, textile businesses in Portugal, Spain and Italy went bankrupt. Their employees became unemployed. “the EU has created a continent-wide market with plenty of opportunities for businesses willing to grasp them.” As an RT columnist recently observed: “Eurocrats love to opine about European competitiveness from their lofty tax-free towers.” Oddly enough, Eurocrats themselves are not willing to grasp these ‘opportunities’. Eurocrats shield themselves carefully from globalisation, liberalisation, offshoring, outsourcing, ‘posting’ workers… “Common sense” is not equal to “pointless cuts”. Eventually NONsense will NOT prevail.” The cuts aren’t pointless. E.g. time after time European tax payers have to refund your pensions. In times of ever-advancing liberalisation, your holidays schemes, income taxes and tax-free fees are ever more archaic and arrant nonsense. “After the cuts that Member States and other international institutions have implemented, the 2013 EU Staff Regulation Reform is not particularly unfair at all. Unless you consider unfair cutting EAAS holiday schemes of up to 96 days/year. 96 days off, that’s almost 5 months off. That would be a part-time job to all of us, mere mortals” There is no such thing as 96 days off: they had 3.5 days of holidays/month, plus let’s say ~20 public holidays, plus some additional rights will yields ~70 days/year, which I agree is quite a lot but still way lower than your 96-day figure. It’s no secret you are a professional and mindless EU basher, but please at least stick to real figures instead of telling lies. Indeed, that particular example you made needed to be addressed, although it must be pointed out that staff posted in remote places might very well need more leave than people working in EU countries. Anyway, if we look at the overall SWINDLE that came with the latest reform, it went very well beyond what was agreed at the Council meeting back in February 2013. And this is COMPLETELY and UTTERLY unfair, because there was already an agreement which was later broken: this is unquestionably CHEATING, period. “As an RT columnist recently observed: “Eurocrats love to opine about European competitiveness from their lofty tax-free towers.” Whoever wrote this crap does not deserve to be a columnist even of the most low-level tabloid. The EU common market IS an accomplished fact and an UNQUESTIONABLY huge achievement. 1) Free movement for people and goods opened up new opportunities for companies and private citizens to seek new opportunities. You fail to recognize that a common market entails way more than just a single currency: identical (or similar) standards and procedures, harmonized fiscal rules, mutual agreements on public health assistance for EU citizens working abroad, etc, etc, etc. I for one as a private citizen love it when I can make purchases 2) The EU standardized procedures and even technology. One example that comes to mind: GSM, which has become the most used mobile communications standard IN THE WORLD, was born in Europe. 3) You know what is saving businesses based in the most crisis-ridden countries where there’s a severe slump in the domestic market? You’d be surprised to see that what is actually saving their butt is the FOREIGN market, of which the EU gets the lion’s share. All of the above are just a few of the MANY good benefits we got from 50+ years of EU: and I could go on for quite a while. This is NOT to say the EU is absolutely perfect or there is no room for improvement: but any honest and fair comparison will yield a quite different picture from the dismal one you EU-bashing idiots love to give by omitting all the benefits that came along with the EU. Too easy, dude, I am too smart for you jerks to deceive me. “When the EU signed a trade deal with Bangladesh, the country in no time became the world’s leader in the textile business. Overnight, textile businesses in Portugal, Spain and Italy went bankrupt. Their employees became unemployed.” The actual facts are COMPLETELY different from your incomplete and inconsistent description. First, trade of textiles was regulated by a WORLDWIDE (and NOT EU-only) agreement (called “Multi-Fibre Arrangement, MFA for short) that was in force from 1974 to 2004. This arrangement featured a complex system of quotas, with some exceptions made to help poor developing countries, like Bangladesh for example: but these (and other) exceptions were made within the framework of a multi-decade, worldwide agreement and have absolutely nothing with the EU textile industry. The problems for the textile industry indeed started more recently, when the MFA expired and garments from China and other developing countries flooded the once-protected markets (not only the EU, but the US, Japan, etc). So, your statement contains boatloads of lies: it is NOT true that it was only the EU’s or Bangladesh’s fault, and it is NOT true that it was ever just an EU problem, but in fact it is a WORLDWIDE issue. More generally regulating world trade is WTO’s business, which is something WAY bigger than just one single country or one continent. Sooner or later ANYBODY will be faced with the challenges posed by a huge, worldwide market. I may agree that politics plays a very important role in this kind of stuff, but focusing on the EU just to make it appear as if it was just the EU the cause of all trouble in the name of liberalization, is a PLAIN and HUGE lie. It turns out I easily proved your deceit here: fortunately, I’m too smart to buy your lies (but that’s not the case with many other readers I’m afraid). “Oddly enough, Eurocrats themselves are not willing to grasp these ‘opportunities’. Eurocrats shield themselves carefully from globalisation, liberalisation, offshoring, outsourcing, ‘posting’ workers…” The EU itself is an international and public institution and not a private business. No national public administration is (and has ever be) be subject to those rules, and the EU is no exception: why would it have to? It’s not that the EU in particular has to be treated differently… except for EU detractors like you. For sure there are ways to curb costs, and they have been applied to a full extent. So, you have no right to complain: be content with what you got and shut the heck up. Dude, I must confess “a bit” fed up of correcting your crap. But unfortunately I’ll have to, at least until you’ll (hopefully) run out of lies. “There is no such thing as 96 days off” “please at least stick to real figures instead of telling lies.” Page 8 of Working Document 892332EN dd. 14/02/2012 of the European Parliament: EEAS/Commission staff in Sri Lanka: up to 93 days leave Compared to the German Diplomatic Service: up to 46 days leave I quote: “The offices of EU staff members are thus empty for many months of the year –a state of affairs which must be seen in the context of very high net salaries.” And: “ Given the lengthy periods of absence from work, some posts are effectively half-time posts for which a full-time salary is paid.” No need for more Staff Regulation Reform, huh? “The actual facts are COMPLETELY different from your incomplete and inconsistent description.” “your statement contains boatloads of lies: it is NOT true that it was only the EU’s or Bangladesh’s fault, and it is NOT true that it was ever just an EU problem, but in fact it is a WORLDWIDE issue.” Have a look at the European Commission website. In particular the Countries & Regions section, Bangladesh: “From 2008 to 2012 EU28 imports from Bangladesh increased from €5,464 million to €9,212 million (+69%), which is more than half of Bangladesh’s total exports.” More than 50% of Bangladesh’s export goes to the EU. This is thanks to an EU trade deal. The offshoring European jobs to Bangladesh and the deaths of Bangladesh employees in collapsing and burning factories are not a worldwide issue, only an EU one. “For sure there are ways to curb costs, and they have been applied to a full extent. So, you have no right to complain: be content with what you got and shut the heck up.” We -employees of industries you have ‘liberalised’, national civil servants you have imposed austerity upon and all private sector employees you confront with ‘posted’ workers- expect no more from you than what you impose on us: more temporary contracts, more local staff, pay cuts, more ‘posted’ workers, more externalisation of services. Only fair, isn’t it? “Dude, I must confess “a bit” fed up of correcting your crap. But unfortunately I’ll have to, at least until you’ll (hopefully) run out of lies.”” So far I have not told a single lie. Every claim and denial of yours has been respectively refuted and reconfirmed with evidence from your own employer’s website. “Page 8 of Working Document 892332EN dd. 14/02/2012 of the European Parliament: EEAS/Commission staff in Sri Lanka: up to 93 days leave” Geez… Flexitime is NOT leave, it is just DUE compensation for overtime! Why is it so difficult to understand??? We are paid to work 40 hours/week, right? Flexitime DOES not affect the amount of hours we are paid for, but is just a way to have our overtime back. Who on earth would be working for free? So let me repeat this LOUD and CLEAR: flexitime is NO leave whatsoever, because it is not automatic and unit heads ALWAYS have a lot of discretion on whether to grant it or not. Something which is NOT guaranteed to everybody doesn’t count, this is a very basic principle, you know? Therefore, 93 is a purely deceptive figure: in fact 93 minus 24 makes 69, which – strange, ain’t it? – is EXACTLY the CORRECT figure I had written in my previous post (“~70”). Which, I agree, is still quite a lot, but not as much as you stated. Last but not least, the document you are referring to is NOT a Commission paper but an European Parliament working paper in which politics (and demagogy) clearly play a key role. “More than 50% of Bangladesh’s export goes to the EU. This is thanks to an EU trade deal. The offshoring European jobs to Bangladesh and the deaths of Bangladesh employees in collapsing and burning factories are not a worldwide issue, only an EU one.” Lie, lie, lie. IF you bother looking at figures, please check your references thoroughly before writing this kind of BULLSHIT. It is true that from 2008 to 2012 export of textiles and clothing from Bangladesh saw a sharp increase, but in your clumsy attempt at proving that the EU-Bangladesh trade is the source of our problems, you “forgot” to mention that 1) over the very same timespan (2008-2012), imports of textiles and clothing from China always stayed over 30000 MEUR and up to 37000 MEUR (Figures taken from the same source you cited). 2) In 2008, the EU’s main suppliers were China (39% of all imports in terms of value), followed by Turkey (14%), India (7.7%), Bangladesh (6.3%) and Tunisia (3.6%) Now, you super-duper economics guru, would you please explain to me how the hell could a trade flow that is LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF THE CHINA-EU ONE and accounts LESS THAN ONE TENTH of the overall EU imports of textiles be the only cause for the collapse of the EU textile industry? The answer is: in NO WAY. How pathetic you are! “We -employees of industries you have ‘liberalised’, national civil servants you have imposed austerity upon and all private sector employees you confront with ‘posted’ workers- expect no more from you than what you impose on us: more temporary contracts, more local staff, pay cuts, more ‘posted’ workers, more externalisation of services. Only fair, isn’t it?” After two reforms, it’s crystal clear that we also have had our ADEQUATE SHARE of austerity. For this reason, I repeat be content with that and SHUT UP. “So far I have not told a single lie. Every claim and denial of yours has been respectively refuted and reconfirmed with evidence from your own employer’s website.” Doesn’t look like that’s the case, my dear. TWO clear lies out of TWO statements of yours (see above) in just one post is a top-ranking score. It really looks like you must have a full degree in Deceipt and Falsehood. Congrats! \U0001f642 “Flexitime is NOT leave, it is just DUE compensation for overtime!” You are moving in circles. We have discussed this. Remember the “kader”/”cadre” issue. Compensation for overtime does not apply to a great deal of office workers in the private sector , and a smaller deal in the public sector. “the document you are referring to is NOT a Commission paper but an European Parliament working paper.” Please read before ranting: I clearly mentioned it is a European Parliament paper. As if the Commission would ever criticize its own holiday scheme! “Lie, lie, lie… before writing this kind of BULLSHIT.” “It is true that from 2008 to 2012 export of textiles and clothing from Bangladesh saw a sharp increase, but in your clumsy attempt at proving that the EU-Bangladesh trade is the source of our problems” The (percentage) increase is irrelevant. What is relevant is the fact that the EU represents more than half of Bangladesh’s export since the trade deal. “Now, you super-duper economics guru, would you please explain to me how the hell could a trade flow that is LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF THE CHINA-EU ONE And accounts LESS THAN ONE TENTH of the overall EU imports of textiles be the only cause for the collapse of the EU textile industry? The answer is: in NO WAY. How pathetic you are!” I shall explain. Bangladesh is no 1 in textile, China is not. The weight textile takes up in Bangladesh’s export is much higher than is the case in China’s. Think about it. Following the EU trade deal, Bangladesh’s textile industry grew at the same time European textile business shrank. Of course, not every Spanish, Portuguese or Italian textile business closed its doors because of one single EU trade deal, the one with Bangladesh. The EU has several trade deals for textile: with South Korea, Guatemala etc. If this is all too theoretical, then just do a simple check. Prior to the EU trade deal with Bangladesh etc., all major European manufacturers (Zara, H&M) produced in Spain or Portugal. Now, have a look at the labels of the clothes these manufacturers sell nowadays. Last but not least, every single factory in Bangladesh that collapsed and/or went up in flames was producing for a European manufacturer. “For this reason, I repeat be content with that and SHUT UP.” No, we are not pleased. And no, you cannot make us shut up. Actually, we’re about to make ourselves heard. In May, isn’t it? “Doesn’t look like that’s the case, my dear. TWO clear lies out of TWO statements of yours (see above)” Still no lie whatsoever. TWO facts proven. (see above) “Compensation for overtime does not apply to a great deal of office workers in the private sector, and a smaller deal in the public sector.” First off, an EU-wide analysis should be done, in order to figure out the proportion of workers having right to overtime compensation AT EU LEVEL, not just in one specific country. Then, even if it was found that a minority of the overall staff (say, 10 or 20%) have the right to flexitime, even this would IN NO WAY be enough of an argument (or even legal basis for that matter) for EU staff to be denied flexitime. “What is relevant is the fact that the EU represents more than half of Bangladesh’s export since the trade deal.” It’s just an ill-posed speculation of yours. And so what? Even in the case (which I doubt) where ALL of the Bangladesh production was meant just for Spain and Portugal and caused the textile business in those two countries to go bankrupt, this is not relevant, because you have to look at the situation at EU level. One specific, local case cannot be used to criticize EU-wide policies. Even if the textile business makes up more than half of Bangladesh’s export to the EU, still the total figures of the EU-Bangladesh textile trade are so marginal (~10%) compared to the overall flow of textile into the EU, that it’s crystal clear that Bangladesh in particular has got NOTHING to do with EU textile business (as a whole, I mean) going down the tubes. As a matter of fact, what REALLY threw the EU textile industry into an unprecedented crisis is the OVERALL increase in the import of textiles and clothing from the developing countries and the third world since the expiration of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement in 2005. “Last but not least, every single factory in Bangladesh that collapsed and/or went up in flames was producing for a European manufacturer.” This is completely different issue: I agree that the EU as Bangladesh’s biggest customer should make sure (and even put some political pressure) that working conditions in those factories are significantly improved, but I repeat it loud and clear: it’s got NOTHING to do with EU textile business crisis. “No, we are not pleased. And no, you cannot make us shut up. ” It’s not my problem. As the old saying goes: “a contented mind is a perpetual feast”. “Actually, we’re about to make ourselves heard. In May, isn’t it?” Most likely nothing will change after the upcoming EU elections. Much to your disappointment. “an EU-wide analysis should be done, in order to figure out the proportion of workers having right to overtime compensation AT EU LEVEL, not just in one specific country.” I don’t quite agree. Eurocrats enjoying Flexi-time work in offices that are basically next-doors to offices in which many employees do not receive any compensation –in time or money- for overtime at all. To the latter, Flexi-time does equate holidays. In Belgium, in industries the Commission has urged to liberalise (telecom, utilities, transport etc.), employees already working with the company at the time of liberalisation still receive compensation for overtime. Their younger colleagues, employees who joined the company after it had been liberalised, do not receive compensation for overtime. Thank you, Mr Eurocrat! “Even if the textile business makes up more than half of Bangladesh’s export to the EU, still the total figures of the EU-Bangladesh textile trade are so marginal (~10%) compared to the overall flow of textile into the EU, that it’s crystal clear that Bangladesh in particular has got NOTHING to do with EU textile business” Let us again consult a source of your employer’s. The textile and clothing sector spans numerous activities –subsectors even. In many of these activities, Bangladesh is hardly, or not all, active. For example, Bangladesh is active in knitted garments but hardly in knitted fabrics. The same goes for woven garments and ditto fabrics. It is almost non-active in technical textiles. Hence Bangladesh’s relatively low overall market share in the EU imports of textile and clothing goods. However, in the activities Bangladesh is active; it always occupies a top 5 spot. Therefore, Portuguese, Spanish or Italian producers of knitted and/or woven fabrics, or technical textiles did not suffer from the EU trade deal with Bangladesh. Portuguese, Spanish or Italian producers of knitted and/or woven garments, however, did. Not because they were not good enough, but only because they did not offer the same conditions as their Bangladesh competitors. Meanwhile, the Dhaka crumbles and fires have learned the world what these conditions are. Eurocrats involved in the trade deal will no doubt herald: “Thanks to close collaboration with the EU, Bangladesh has seized the opportunities that the free market and globalisation offer.” “Most likely nothing will change after the upcoming EU elections.” Well, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Now that Austerity from Brussels has replaced Manna from Brussels, countries that traditionally favoured a larger EU budget will join the net contribution Member States in their effort for modernising the EU staff. “Eurocrats enjoying Flexi-time work in offices that are basically next-doors to offices in which many employees do not receive any compensation –in time or money- for overtime at all. To the latter, Flexi-time does equate holidays.” How lame of an argument this is. And so what? Frankly, it’s not my problem and I don’t give a damn. We’re not in a communist regime with everybody having equal treatment (actually we know for a fact that this was not the case even in communist countries…), therefore it will ALWAYS be possible to find somebody enjoying better salary AND better working conditions than each and every one of us. Instead of bitching about the others having a better package, move your butt and try to improve your condition. Otherwise, shut up! “Hence Bangladesh’s relatively low overall market share in the EU imports of textile and clothing goods. However, in the activities Bangladesh is active; it always occupies a top 5 spot.” Let’s recap: you stated and clumsily tried to prove that *Bangladesh alone* destroyed the EU textile industry. Really, you just proved yourself wrong. From Euratex, the EU textile industry association: Bangladesh occupies no top 5 spots as a textile supplier, while it occupies the second spot in the clothing supplier ranking, but with a total trade flow of LESS THAN ONE THIRD THAN THAT OF CHINA. Knitted or woven garments? How big a of proportion of the TOTAL textile and clothing market does this sector alone amount to? ROFL. The TRUTH is that *even if* Bangladesh occupies a top 5 spot in some sectors, it *might* have caused problems in those *specific* sectors, i.e. to individual firms operating in specific market niches. This is indeed very likely (it happens pretty much everyday in ANY market and not just in the textile one that businesses in specific sectors suffer some kind of crisis) but let me say it loud and clear: IT IS CRYSTAL CLEAR THAT TO SAY THAT BANGLADESH ALONE DESTROYED THE EU TEXTILE INDUSTRY IS AN OUTRIGHT LIE, AND THE FIGURES ARE THERE FOR ANYONE TO SEE. Your original statement is therefore refuted beyond any doubt. Now you’ll have to make up some smarter bullshit. ROFL \U0001f642 “Now that Austerity from Brussels has replaced Manna from Brussels, countries that traditionally favoured a larger EU budget will join the net contribution Member States in their effort for modernising the EU staff.” Don’t be so sure, dude. Let’s “meet” again on these pages in a few years’ time to see who was wrong. In the meantime, shut the heck up: nobody will listen to your ranting. “We’re not in a communist regime with everybody having equal treatment (actually we know for a fact that this was not the case even in communist countries…)” From the looks of it, we are living in a regime that is quite similar: an unelected Supreme Institute and apparatchiks enjoying privileges other citizens do not. Also “troika” comes to mind a lot, doesn’t it? “Instead of bitching about the others having a better package, move your butt and try to improve your condition.” Actually, it is the other way round: Eurocrats have degraded, and keep degrading, the package of many an EU citizen. At the same time the Brussels party keeps going strong. On top of 3+ months of holidays, the average Eurocrat is sick 14,6 days/year. That is about 3 weeks of sickness for looking at a flat screen in a Brussels office! But, let me guess, like Flexi-time, these 3 weeks aren’t holidays, right? With regards to Bangladesh, I’ll repeat my original statement word for word: “When the EU signed a trade deal with Bangladesh, the country in no time became the world’s leader in the textile business. Overnight, textile businesses in Portugal, Spain and Italy went bankrupt. Their employees became unemployed.” On November 1st 2001, the then European Commissioner Pascal Lamy stated: “L’Union européenne est disposée à soutenir le Bangladesh … en ouvrant de nouvelles possibilités commerciales et en favorisant une plus grande pénétration sur le marché.” I never said Bangladesh destroyed the ENTIRE textile industry or that it ruined ALL textile businesses in Portugal, Spain and Italy. How could a single country the size of Greece ruin the entire EU? How on earth could its industry destroy European manufacturers in products it doesn’t even produce? Bangladesh, however, did become a global player in products it does produce. The EU trade deal with Bangladesh is but one of many EU trade deals (plural) that destroy European businesses. Q.E.D. In less than a decade, 2 staff regulation reforms achieved that a post-Sevcovic Eurocrat doesn’t come even close to his/her pre-Kinnock colleague. Now, the European Court blocks a pay rise. Quite a stretch from the euphoria of the 50s and 60s, isn’t it? Times are changing. EU Staff Regulation Reform: one small step for Eurocrats, one giant leap for Europe. “From the looks of it, we are living in a regime that is quite similar: an unelected Supreme Institute and apparatchiks enjoying privileges other citizens do not. Also “troika” comes to mind a lot, doesn’t it?” 1) These privileges are similar (or in most cases, even lower) than those enjoyed by peers working for other international organizations. So, everything is perfectly legitimate here. 2) Decision makers at EU level (Commissioners, representatives to the Council, etc) are chosen by the (democratically) elected governments of EU members states. Therefore they were not imposed, but freely chosen by the governments EU citizens themselves elected to rule their own countries. “At the same time the Brussels party keeps going strong. On top of 3+ months of holidays, the average Eurocrat is sick 14,6 days/year. That is about 3 weeks of sickness for looking at a flat screen in a Brussels office! But, let me guess, like Flexi-time, these 3 weeks aren’t holidays, right?” Exactly, well said: these three weeks are NOT holidays. You have NO evidence whatsoever that they did not take sickness leave for a good reason. Bear it in mind, you moron, that one is innocent until proven guilty and that this principle also applies to EU staff workers as well. “Actually, it is the other way round: Eurocrats have degraded, and keep degrading, the package of many an EU citizen.” This is that old refrain of yours that the EU ruined Europe. Actually it’s the other way around, but you are too narrow-minded and negatively biased to acknowledge it. How boring. “With regards to Bangladesh, I’ll repeat my original statement word for word: When the EU signed a trade deal with Bangladesh, the country in no time became the world’s leader in the textile business. Overnight, textile businesses in Portugal, Spain and Italy went bankrupt. Their employees became unemployed.” Your original statement IS exactly what caused my reaction, because it contains two big inaccuracies: 1) You wrote that “the country in no time became the world’s leader in the textile business”. Bangladesh was NEVER or did never become “the world’s leader in the textile business”, because China has been the ACTUAL leader. Instead, Bangladesh *might* have become the leader in *some* specific sectors. This makes a HUGE difference, you know? 2) The EU-Bangladesh agreement on free trade dates back to 2001, while the big plunge in the EU textile industry took place a few years later, from 2005 onwards, when following the expiration of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement, import quotas were gradually lifted in the EU and in other countries such as the US. “How could a single country the size of Greece ruin the entire EU? How on earth could its industry destroy European manufacturers in products it doesn’t even produce? Bangladesh, however, did become a global player in products it does produce. The EU trade deal with Bangladesh is but one of many EU trade deals (plural) that destroy European businesses. The EU trade deal with Bangladesh is but one of many EU trade deals (plural) that destroy European businesses.” Now, the above is quite a different statement from your original one. Anyway, as always, you (purposely) omit the BIG picture and focus instead on the specific examples that – stripped of their context – best serve your EU-bashing goals. Nowadays the world trade is regulated by the WTO, and most (if not all) trade deals are negotiated and signed within the legal framework set out by the WTO. The times of protectionism have long gone for EVERYBODY: the US, China, Canada, the EU, Japan, etc. It’s always a matter of compromise: it may happen that one trade deal is penalizing in some sectors, but most likely you’ll have some other agreement with some other country to make up for that. And in some fields – energy and fuels, for example – some countries such as the EU or Japan are bound to be losers, because they are totally dependent on supplier countries. Unfortunately it really looks like the wealth is “shifting” around the world, and in a few decades’ time, we’ll no longer be the richest countries in the world. “In less than a decade, 2 staff regulation reforms achieved that a post-Sevcovic Eurocrat doesn’t come even close to his/her pre-Kinnock colleague. Now, the European Court blocks a pay rise. Quite a stretch from the euphoria of the 50s and 60s, isn’t it? Times are changing.” Might be but it will be long until next reform. So, I repeat, let’s meet back in ten years or so on these pages to see who was right. In the meantime, just shut up and continue living your dull and humdrum life of EU-bashing nobody. Last but not least, while surfing around the ‘net, I found out there is one guy always signing himself as “mike” whose main hobby seems to be spamming EU-related websites (such as the Open Europe Blog, for example) about how mean EU staff members are and how heavily they should be penalized. Now I don’t have enough evidence to prove it’s always the same person littering these websites with idiotic comments, but the tone and content are so strikingly similar, I’d be *really* surprised if it wasn’t the same person (you). *IF* this is the case, dude, then I think you have a serious mental condition, and for your own sake I recommend you get yourself a really good shrink. ASAP. You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 4 (updated: The European Union's enlargement commissioner cancelled a visit to Macedonia next week over a political dispute that he warned could undermine the ex-Yugoslav republic's bid to start membership talks with the bloc. Macedonia's main opposition Social Democrats have been boycotting parliament since they were thrown out of the assembly by security during a brawl in late December. Accusing the rightist government of authoritarianism, the Social Democrats are now threatening to boycott local elections on March 24. EU enlargement commissioner Štefan Füle had planned to visit next week to assess the small Balkan country's reform progress, but said on Friday this would no longer be appropriate. I am frustrated by the lack of progress in putting an end to the political stalemate, Füle said in a statement. He warned the situation was putting at risk an opportunity for Macedonia to clinch the start of membership talks. Macedonia's efforts to join the EU and NATO have been hostage to a dispute with neighbouring Greece over Macedonia's name, which it shares with a northern Greek province. Greece wants it changed. Mindful, however, of the threat of instability in a country that flirted with civil war in 2001, there have been growing signs that the EU's 27 members might agree to open accession talks even without first resolving the name dispute. Diplomats say the lack of headway towards the European mainstream, and the attendant economic and travel opportunities, is fuelling discontent in Macedonia particularly among ethnic Albanians who comprise a quarter of the two million population. They waged an insurgency in 2001 until Western diplomacy pulled the country from the brink of full-blown civil war. Some of the former guerrillas are now in coalition government with Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, but tensions continue to simmer. The Social Democrats (SDSM) have conditioned their return to parliament on a postponement of the communal elections until April 28 and a deal that if the opposition wins, the government should call a snap parliamentary election for September. Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE party has rejected both conditions. We appeal to the SDSM to give up blackmail and the setting of conditions, VMRO-DPMNE said in a statement on Friday. We call on them to stop harming the country and to return to the state institutions. I cant believe that the European Union officials are punishing the country of Macedonia because of political antics by the Opposition political parties. If you lose the elections and only have a few parliamentary seats, you should respect the will of the majority party who won the elections and has a coalition government with the Albanian minority party. The European Union officials are actually rewarding a minority political party that is boycotting democratic institutions. Macedonia has a right to its name like Greece has a right to its name. Greece’s arguement that this is a problem because it has a province named Macedonia is ridiculous. There are multiple examples of the same situation in Europe and worldwide. And Greece is afraid of Macedonia having irredentist aspirations and militarily attacking Greece. Who can believe that a small country of 2 million people can successfully attack a country of 11 million and a member of NATO. My humble opinion is that even if Greece were not a hinder in FYR Macedonian accession to the EU the political instability within the country between Slavs and Albanians is a serious concern and there should be a viable political solution (modus vivendi) among the communities before the continuation of the EU accession. Part of the problem facing the Republic of Macedonia is that others refer to the Albanian minority as “Albanians”, but the majority ethnic Macedonians as “Slavs”. First of all, the ethnic Albanians in Macedonia have all of their minority rights, full education, language and religious rights, and even hold prominent positions in government. Contrast this to the situation of ethnic Albanians in Greece or Serbia. Second, ethnic Macedonians should be called “Macedonians”, not “Slavs”. In Kosovo, it wasn’t Albanians fighting against Slavs, even though Serbs are as much Slavs as Macedonians. The same can be said for Croatians, Slovenians, Bulgarians, Slovaks, Russians, etc, all have “Slav” heritage, but I have never seen them referred to as “Slavs”. Third, look at the situation of Albanian, Turkish, Serbian, Roma, and other minorities in the Republic of Macedonia, and compare it to the situation of Turkish and Macedonian minorities in Greece and Bulgaria, both EU countries. Only in the Balkans does one find such nonsense! What is wrong with Macedonia calling itself that? What is Greece afraid of? On the other hand, why not just accept one of the proposed Greek alternatives, which are close enough to the existing name? What is all the bloody fuss about? ah, dear Piotr, it’s about a lot of blood spillt on all sides in the not so far past. @Poitr The true and only reason for “our good neighbours” impediments in regards to Macedonia’s accession into the UN, EU and NATO under the name Macedonia is that this will legitimize a Macedonian identity, for while there is no official Macedonia there can be no official Macedonians as such only FYROMIANS. Thus we have the essence, the real issue and that being the 21st century basic human rights of minority populations in Greece an Bulgaria, nothing to do with territorial ambitions, Alexander, his father, Delchev, Tito or anything else. The issue is the right to self-identify and at present there are large groups of Greek and Bulgarian citizens who wish not to identify as Greek or Bulgarian, but just as Macedonians and are systematically not permitted. But don’t take my word on this, here are just a few respected and independent views on the subject; 1. Gay McDougall, UN- Greece should withdraw from the dispute over whether there is a Macedonian minority on its territory and focus on protecting the rights to self-identification, freedom of expression and freedom of association of those communities. 2. Human Rights Watch- Recommends to the international community that it acknowledge and take steps to end human rights abuses by the Greek government. In particular, it urges the CSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities to investigate the situation of the ethnic Macedonians and to take steps to end discrimination against them. 3. Panayote Dimitras, Greek Helsinki Monitor – Greece and Bulgaria are isolated in their fantasy that there is no Macedonian minority. Every Greek politician is obsessed by the fantasy that there is no Macedonian minority living in Greece. 4. Rita Izsák, UN – Bulgaria should comply fully with the judgements of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) relating to persons belonging Macedonian communities and implement its rulings without further delay. Macedonian Associations should be allowed to register and function without impediment, use their chosen names and express their ethnic identities freely. Associations that have been denied in the past should promptly be given official registration. If the Slavs of FYROM need the EU then it is correct for them to get their house in order. The opposition regardless of its political colours is there to hold the government accountable. Bringing the name dispute with Greece into every turn that FYROM takes in every internal political event is a simplistic ploy used by both the right wing nationalists and their left wing opposition to detract from the Slavic conundrum. For the time being the Slavs of FYROM are in the majority and while the Albanian minority are quickly increasing their demographic footprint we can assume that in a decade or so the Slavic population will itself become the largest minority in FYROM. This will then mean that the Slavic minority itself will need to seek alliances with the Albanian majority who will by then most likely be the government of the day. I cannot believe how stupid some people are… Ask an Aboriginal from Australia who they are and where they are from. I’m pretty sure they will say – Aboriginal from Australia. Now, instead of listening to and reading Greek and or Bulgarian crap, (and please remember, England did give Macedonian land to these two countries about 100 years ago for political reasons), ask a Macedonian who they are and where they’re from. Answer : Macedonian from Macedonia. We didn’t just disappear during the middle ages. Yes, we have had many cultural, religious and linguistic influences over hundreds of years, who hasn’t? Are you English because you speak it? We use words today that Macedonians used 1000 years ago, so its not unreasonble to say same words were used another 1000 years prior. The sad thing is that the Greek government is digging up old burial sites showing no respect for Macedonian past and claiming it as Greek. And RIP all Macedonians who were persecuted when Greece took over Southern Macedonia. Very Sad. Robert,all your previous comments have shown to be anti-Macedonian,and pro-Greek.Please,show your identity,don’t hide under your…skirt. Compare Greeces human rights to that of Macedonia.All Macedonian citizens have equal rights to education,religion,culture and language,yes even to form their own political parties.On numerous occasions Greece has been brought to the international court of justice by the indigenous Macedonian minority,on all accounts,Macedonians have won with monetary fines against the Greek government. Here is how Greece is looked at from outside of Greece then and now;In 1783 one of the founding fathers of the US John Adams said”The project of setting at liberty the whole country of ancient Greece,Macedonia,and Illiricum,and erecting independent Republics in those famous seats,however splendid it may appear in speculation,is not likely to be seriously entertained by the two Empires,because it is impracticable.The Greeks of this day,although they are said to have imagination and ingenuity,are corrupted in their morals to such a degree,as to be faithless,perfidious race,destitute of courage,as well as of those principals of honor and virtue,without which nations can have no confidence in one another,nor be trusted by others”.Greeces historical fabrications and most recent ones with the eurozone have proven fatal for the Greek nation.There is one suggestion for my Greek friends;instead of attacking the Republic of Macedonia,please do attack the financial situation in Greece and suggest the remedy to improve the lives of the Greek citizens instead of spending useless time on fabrications of historical lies.Write to the Greek government,and ask them,what has happened to 650 billion dollars,who pocket that money that the ordinary citizens have to pay.Under the present situation,this is the most important subject for you Greeks to discuss,instead of meddle with a sovereign state of the Republic of Macedonia. When the skopjian govenment stops this internal infighting between the two main Slavic party’s then someone just someone might take them seriously. To date the Slavic majority are unable to reconcile among themselves. The right wing national-fascist party is building these ugly, and for most skopjian residents, disgusting statues. On the other hand, many left wing members of the skopjian government consider them the inflated attempt by the national-fascists to create an identity which does not show their Slavic roots. The socialists, openly voice their pride in their Slavic heritage and denounce these ancient fabrications hurting their country’s progress. Recently, I toured the skopjian capital and witnessed the ugly, filthy, state of the city with these potholes of statues randomly placed around the place with this terrible cacophony of sound coming out of some of them. The experience was excruciating and many of the local skopjians were openly hostile to these atrocities. One evening after a meal at a local skopjian friend, we strolled down the street and witnessed these local skopjian SDSM protestors spitting and urinating on them while some of the more game skojian youths were spraying anti-fascist graffiti on them. One needs to consider what has this skopjian govenment done to help their EU entrance? The answer would have to be nothing but wasted 90% of the skopjian government budget on the most tasteless, ugly, and disgusting third rated artwork known to Europe. Robert,who are you bull shitting?. When speaking about”Slavic”it means the slavic language,not a nation.Slavic language is spoken by more than 300 million people,and they are;Macedonians,Serbians,Bulgarians,Russians,Ukrainiana,Poles,Slovaks,Belorussians.The Greek propaganda and fabrications of the Macedonian identity has been in gear since 1913.How otherwise will they usurp Macedonian history,and legitimize the illegal occupation of Aegean Macedonia.This same is happening with Bulgaria,they know,they are occupying foreign land. As for the statues,they are Macedonian and I am proud what Nikola Gruevski has accomplished. By your comments,you must be on the communist side,because Crvenkovski is just that.Crvenkovski created more than 280,000 unemployed overnight when he sold government owned businesses during his reign in government.Can you imaging this amount of people out of work in a 2.2 million population?. When Gruevski took over the unemployment was over 40% and now down to 30% even with the economy down the tube all over in Europe.Gruevski has kept Macedonia afloat,in positive territory in comparison to our neighbors.That is an achievement my friend.Look at our southern neighbor Greece,over 3,000 people took their lives for not being able to support their loved ones and themselves.The young people are at 60% out of work,and they are leaving the country.You can’t even find a dog or cat on the streets of Athens. Robert,I just came accross of one very interesting article on internet,I would like to share it with you.It might change your mind on the Macedonian question visa vi Greece. If you ever visit Rome,please go near the Colosseum,there you will find a Map from the Roman Empire.This Balkan Map in the period of Roman Empire clearly in capital letters is written the name of Macedonia.The Map is built into the facade of the house.It is showing river Danube and bellow it is Mesia,south of it is Tracia,east of it the Black Sea,west of Tracia is Macedonia in capital letters,west of Macedonia is Dalmazia present day Albania.The only area of present day Greece is showing Crete and Epirus west of Macedonia.Romans are not showing a Greek state,because as I have said before,there was never a Greek nation till 1829.Hellas was extinguished back in 338 BC by the Macedonians occupiers. As I have expressed my self before,true history will bite Greeces and Bulgarias asses.The propaganda against Gruevski by your kind are attempting to fabricate the truth. By the way,Crvenkovski decided to go to the local elections after the meeting with Fule yesterday.His carrier is over,so is the influence of Greece in Macedonia.Samaras cannot buy Gruevski like he did Crvenkovski.A Serbian business man tried it for 3 million dollars to buy Gruevski.Gruevski will not sell his honor like Crvenkovski has done.Republic of Macedonia is in good hands with Gruevski. The Slavic parties in the skopjian government have yet to reconcile not only on issues of ideologies but more significantly of identity. The national-fascist party of Gruevski is naively set on a antiquisationist policy promoted by scholars who apparently never received diplomas. The socialist side SDSM openly voice their Slavic ethnicity and equally point to history where they believe their forefathers the Bulgarian tibes came out of the Ukraine steppes in the 9th century AD. My recent visit to the skopjian capital was incredibly disappointing. The city is randomly occupied by these ugly concrete statues among immense amounts of filth and stench from these huge piles of garbage the local skojpians throw out in the streets to protest against the fascist skopjian government. One night after a meal at my skopjian freinds house we walked down the street and witnessed people spitting and urinating on these so-called national statues. When we asked the teenagers in slavic why they urinated they answered that the fascist skopjian government has neglected the poverty stricken masses with 39% unemployment, medical services which are worse than 3rd world countries, and that the place has become a police state under the fascist skopjian leadership. The following day we returned and found the urinated and defecated statues sprayed with anti-fascist slogans against Gruevskis skopjian government. As tourists are hard to come by in the CBD it is not surprising that many Europeans avoid this area altogether. Hopefully the Slavic majority will get their act together and bring some harmony to this forgotten grey and dismal area so that the Albanians who are quickly said to become the majority soon can also have a decent life. Robert,you are not worth to comment on your idiotic comments,but I will tell you one thing,Macedonia is well and is going on the right direction with Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski.As for the statues,they are very,very nice!I love them! The vast majoity of the skopjian residents regard the statues put up by Gruevski’s national-fascist party as ugly, painful to wake up to, and with so much urinating and defecation on them the stench is abhorrent. In addition, the anti-fascist grafitti by supporters of the SDSM is already keeping the skopjian government in constant tension. One national-fascist politician remarked that ‘we spent 500 million Euros, for these sacred national monuments and now they need on average 1500 Euros a day to keep them clean from vandals.’ The majority Slav residents in the capital are not only divided by their skopjian heritage, but even more so by their mutual hatred for the ugly statues. This is because some statues support antiquisationist theories of identity while other Slavic statues support the more common notion that the skopjian residents are descended from the Bulgarian tribes that arrived here in ca.900AD from the Ukraine Steppes. It seems that some Greek fascists dont understand what they are saying. Calling the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia “Slavs” is derogatory and certainly does not lead to any constructive decisions. Anyone can have an opinion on the statues in the capital city of Skopje, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I was there in September of 2012, the statues were beautiful and inspiring, much like how I felt about the dozens of statues I have seen in many other cities and countries. I can assure you that I saw no vandalism, urine or feces, and there was no smell. I did hear hundreds of tourists speaking many different languages, and I assumed they were there to see the city, country and maybe the statues. Some of these tourists would probably have been in Greece if it was not for demonstrations and the horrible fascist/nationalistic attacks by Greeks on people who don’t “look” Greek. I am always amazed when someone makes a statement like “The majority of Slav residents in the capital …”, can you please tell me what poll you took, who was asked? I was born in Skopje, most of my family still lives in Skopje, and I can assure you that not one person I know considers themselves “Slavs” or anything else but “Macedonians”. I recommend to the Greek people that they fix their broken financial house, stop their ultra nationalistic Greek fascists from attacking innocent people, and recognize the ethnic, religious and cultural minorities in Greece. Think how the ethnic Albanians in the Republic of Macedonia can use their language, form city governments, open community centres, register political parties and are a part of the official government. Meanwhile in Greece- “EVERY ONE IS GREEK”- this is what you call a DEMOCRACY???? Many assume that the slav majority have no issues with their skopjian government but we can assure you as tourists we seen the daily grind and protests. As for the defecated, urinated stains and anti-Gruevski grafitti on the ugly statues this has become a huge embarrasment for the skopjian government. The tourist trail would be better served if the skopjian residents moved people along who decided to defecate and urinate out in public at the foot of these atrocious statues! Robert,I suggest you read Andy’s comment once more. We are proud of our ancient lineage,your insolent comments are typical Greek and or Bulgarian,does not bother me at all.Your comments show your frustration with the discovery of your fabrications,you have nowhere to go but acknowledge your lies. Robert,for your information,Greece is building a large park in Salonika with Alexanders statues hoping to overtake Skopje’s 2014.What do you think of it? Where do they find the funds,they are broke,bankrupt,finito.As I have said before,Greeces politics will take the country to the sewers.Oh wait a minute,they already there. Repeatedly many Slavs refuse to admit the chaos in the skopjian capital. They assume that all the skopjians are happy with their national-fascist government of Gruevski. This could not be further from the truth! Our own visits to the skopjian capital showed an atmosphere of tension, stress, and depression. The people are retaliating by so many different means. This can be seen by the defecated, urinated stains and anti-Gruevski grafitti on the ugly statues which has become a huge embarrasment for the skopjian government. The tourist trail would be better served if the skopjian residents moved people along who decided to defecate and urinate out in public at the foot of these atrocious statues! The skopjian politicians are without answers! There are too many Slavs who are against their skopjian government and want action on many issues of unemployment, e.g. 39% the worst in Europe, rampant poverty, dysfunctional health system, etc. That the skopjian government is trying to improve life one cannot say. This is the Balkans after all, so one immediately understands that the skopjians are just as corrupt, racist, backward, and nationalistic as all the others. The problem lies with the rift among the slav majority. Those who want a fabricated glorious history adding figures from their southern neighbours and then there are those who want their Slavic heritage maintained and unchanged, proud of their arrival from the Ukraine steppes in 900AD. One needs to ponder how long this skopjian bif will last before it turns into a police state under the national-fascist (which is half way there now) government of Gruevski or the we have to watch the skopjian state implode from its huge overload of Balkan envy! Robert,I don’t believe for a moment that you ever visited Republic of Macedonia.Your crap about Macedonia and statues is just crap.The government of Nikola Gruevski has done more things to improve the lives of the state than what Greece and Bulgaria have done in the last 20 years.Our neighbors are plagued with corruption at every corner you turn. I told you before,you are not worth answering on your comments because you know nothing about the Balkan history.All you are interested is on attacking Macedonia.Do I sense jalousie of the progress Macedonia is making and your country is going to the sewers?By the way,the unemployment in Macedonia is improving steady while yours is going up,and keeps climbing higher.I will live you with a comment from James Petros who wrote the following;”Who cheers for this football team? Who jeers at the phony Papandreou,the porky face of Venizelos,the blood-sucking Strournaras and Samaras…Politicians smell like the putrid fish that even a starving cat wouldn’t touch.”Have a nice day! Once again, for clarity sake and for those who have been to skopjia and know the dilemma of the skopjian people. This is addressed to non-skopjians! Repeatedly many Slavs refuse to admit the chaos in the skopjian capital. They assume that all the skopjians are happy with their national-fascist government of Gruevski. This could not be further from the truth! Our own visits to the skopjian capital showed an atmosphere of tension, stress, and depression. The people are retaliating by so many different means. This can be seen by the defecated, urinated stains and anti-Gruevski grafitti on the ugly statues which has become a huge embarrasment for the skopjian government. The tourist trail would be better served if the skopjian residents moved people along who decided to defecate and urinate out in public at the foot of these atrocious statues! The skopjian politicians are without answers! There are too many Slavs who are against their skopjian government and want action on many issues of unemployment, e.g. 39% the worst in Europe, rampant poverty, dysfunctional health system, etc. That the skopjian government is trying to improve life one cannot say. This is the Balkans after all, so one immediately understands that the skopjians are just as corrupt, racist, backward, and nationalistic as all the others. The problem lies with the rift among the slav majority. Those who want a fabricated glorious history adding figures from their southern neighbours and then there are those who want their Slavic heritage maintained and unchanged, proud of their arrival from the Ukraine steppes in 900AD. One needs to ponder how long this skopjian bif will last before it turns into a police state under the national-fascist (which is half way there now) government of Gruevski or the we have to watch the skopjian state implode from its huge overload of Balkan envy! When I read these comments as a non-involved outsider it is very difficult to sympathize with the positions of the so called Slavic Macedonians. I have traveled a number of time to some Balkan countries and it seems so ludicrousness to always read the rather denigrating attitude of many Macedonians to their neighbors and I really cannot understand how they can pretend to be so culturally different than Bulgarians. Anyone in any way familiar with the foods, music, history etc. of both countries can immediately see that at best “Macedonia” is a regional variation of Bulgaria. Tonight I even read of “the traditional Macedonian salad called Shopska Salat”. Are you friggen kidding me! Do Macedonians even know that the Shops are people of the Sofia region? and that the salad originated there? There are so many examples of Macedonians claiming as theirs what has been integral to their neighbors for centuries that it is not hard to understand the anger they generate. As a non-involved outsider, I cant believe the naivety, or stupidity, of other “non-involved outsiders” like Jay. I know Macedonian who find it offensive to be called “Slavs”. They dont deny that they have slavic blood/ancestry, but they are no more slav than Serbians, Bulgarians, Slovenians, Slovaks, etc, yet no one calls them “Slavs” or “Slavic Serbians, etc”, why are only the Macedonians referred to as Slavs. Also, Macedonians dont deny the Bulgarians the right to have Shopska salad, nor do most Macedonians deny that there is intermixing with Bulgarians- blood, culture and history. But the same can be said between Greek and Turks, 500 years of Turkish control of Greek territory left some word, culture and blood behind, yet we dont try to tell the Greeks that they are Turks. What about Austrians, are they really different than Germans, is their language, culture, foods so different from German. Lets tell the Austians to call themselves German and join their motherland. If you are a truly non-involved outsider, dont attack only one side. Jay,Shopska salad was not invented in Bulgaria,it shows how much you know.Take for instance”meze”,Greeks think it is a Greek word,but in reality it is Turkish.You Greeks, should take a good look at your modern language before you start with your simple-minded about others.The Balkan languages have changed due to different invasions in the area.I guess being a Greek,no surprise here!No matter who you play,it shows in your comment,not as an outsider,but a hypocrite.What can one expect from a Greek? Read and learn Peter. From Wikipedia “Shopska salad derives its name from the regional group called Shopi native to Bulgaria and parts of the Republic of Macedonia and Serbia.” Note that is says they live in Bulgaria AND Macedonia. If Macedonians are not Bulgarians how can the Shops of Macedonia not be Bulgarians? Or are you now going to tell me that the people of the Sofia region are really Macedonians too? From Balkantravelers.com “Invented only in the 1970s by the compilers of socialist restaurants’ menus in Bulgaria, the Shopska salad quickly turned into a national signature dish.” Yet one reads in Macedonian sources that it is a “traditional Macedonian dish”! From Examiner.com ” The dish originated in the Bulgarian region of Shoppi (the native area of Sofia, Bulgaria) but has spread to many countries.” Your Macedonian attitude to this small matter of a food dish is all to typical of Macedonians, they claim almost everything as traditionally theirs and express hostile attitudes yet when the facts are researched you are always incorrect. Very strange people. Frank. Slavic Macedonians are called that to differentiate them from the Albanian Macedonians. The fact that some Macedonians get so excited at hearing the work Slavic (which is what your language is) only goes to highlight your insecurity.On the issue of Bulgarian origin of said Slavic Macedonians you only need to read what some your own leaders have said. From Wikipedia “Many politicians revealed their bulgarophilness after leaving the political stage as Ljub?o Georgievski and Antonio Milošoski.” and as I am sure you are aware there is a long history of what your former leaders have said in the public record about the reality of their Bulgarian origins. Please stop expounding the silly propaganda that is all too familiar in your country. Jay,I don’t give a d…about your argument.It shows how far you Greeks will go to make something out of nothing.Last year a Greek reporter was asking the Macedonian singer at the Euro festival,why she had the word Macedonia in her song.Is this stupid or what.She represented her own country Macedonia. As for Georgievski,Crvenkovski,Frckovski,Sekerinska and thir cohorts,they can go and f*** themselves.They have sold our country for their own pocket.Samaras lost 130 million dollars,got nothing for it.The above mentioned individuals who worked on behalf of Samaras are finished. The Slavo/Macedonian was invented by Greece,because it fit their propaganda about the history they usurped from the Macedonians.As for the Bulgarians,they speak slavic language,but the Macedonians have nothing else in common.As per the father of Bulgarian history,they are from Bahtri,and the latest this historian B.Dimitrov suggested they came from Persia,now go figure.Macedonians in ancient and present times have absolutely no blood connection with the Bulgars nor the Greeks.But,I do know your connection,you are mostly Turks and Albanians,no connection to ancient Hellens,absolutely none!! Have a nice day. I don’t know, can the Greeks usurp their own ancient history. Most academics tell us no. But some people insist they have a right to usurp, fabricate, and veneer their identity out of whatever history is available to them. I mean as far as I know from my skopjian friends I visit from time to time, they claim a Slavic origin and frown upon the fabrications of Gruevski’s antiquisationism. When I asked my friends about their opinion of the national-fascist Greuvski and his claims to antiquity they simply said that it is easier to build out of ugly grey cement and cheap Italian metal a fabricated history to give both the naive among our Slavic majority and the fascist-nationalists among us a proud past than to tell them that they are from primitive, backward, uneducated Slavs! They are not a few among the skopjians but they keep their opinions to themselves and only share them with us tourists who visit. They also think that the ugly statues with the unbearable stench of urinated and defecated pedestals is a sign of Gruevskis popularity. Literally going down the sewer. Yet as the skopjian government controls the people by a police styled state, where media and radio are censored and spied upon by skopjian government appointed loyalists, many of my friends believe that the times are not looking favourable. I hope that the skopjian government can finally understand how the country’s slavic majority feel; torn between 2 identities. Peter, “As for the Bulgarians,they speak slavic language,but the Macedonians have nothing else in common” wow, how incredibly ignorant of history can you be! Nothing in common! You better go visit Bulgaria, there you will realize that all the food you order on the menu are the same as in Macedonia, go visit the museums and see that the clothes and daily lives of the previous generations are the same as in Macedonia, go listen to some traditional music and see that all the instruments and most songs are the same as your ancestors used. The language is only a dialect away.Your historical heroes such as Gotse Delchev are common, your own ancestors writing in books of less than 100 years ago described themselves as Bulgarians, some 25% of the current Bulgarian population has family connections of some sort with Macedonia and on it goes. No, unless you are of Albanian or Serbian descent in Macedonia you are completely full of crap. Please take a few history courses on Balkan history from a non- Macedonian school and actually learn something. Man, did the Serbian secret services ever do a job with brain washing you guys. And by the way I have nothing to do with Greece other than loving the beaches and food. Jay,you are repeating what the former Greek ambassador in a form of protest said to the Macedonian Foreign Ministry.She could not figure it out why foreign visitors did not know in which country they have arrived.The people in the Republic of Macedonia and the people in Northern Greece(Aegean Macedonia)are one and the same.She said”Visitors in Macedonia don’t know if they are in Skopje or Greece.They,eat and drink same,and they look alike”.She forget as you have,you can create borders to divide geography,but you cannot divide people.People remain same with same identity as in this case the Macedonians.Further,I don’t need your type of history because you my friend know absolutely nothing.The Bulgarians have no common blood with the Macedonians,whether in “ancient” or present times. Bulgarias sour grapes about Macedonia goes back to 1913.They lost Aegean Macedonia to Greece,and were left with 10%of Macedonian territory.Your similarity on both sides of the border reflects that assumption. Here are some facts for you to masticate if you have time and widen your knowledge.Mario Alinei,Dean Emiritus of the Utrecht University,director of several linguistic reviews and progenitor of the “Continuity Theory”states,”I have to commence by clearing away one of the most absurb consequences of the traditional chronology namely,that of the arrival of the Slavs into the immense area in which they now live.The only logical conclusion can be that the southern branch of the Slavs is the oldest and that from it developed the slavic Western and Eastern branches…Today only a minority of experts support the theory of a late migration of the Slavs. Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians carry only 15.2% of the Slav gene,slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians! They further reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians have the highest amount of the Mediterranean gene of all European people! This was also confirmed by the University of Madrid studies.In a court of Law,it is genetic proof that is conclusive,I might add! In summation…Ethnic,yes todays Ethnic Macedonians cannot possibly be of the old Mediterranean substratum if they were slavs arriving in the Balkans in 6th century AD…as the 19th century Western construct asserts!! Todays ethnic Macedonians are authocthonous to Macedonia,it is very simple!Their language, unintelligable to the ancient Greeks,was a form of proto Macedonian/slav,which then spread outward,becoming more complex as it moved further away from Macedonia.Countless proto Macedonian letters unearthed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia,and no doubt in Pirin and Aegean Macedonia,though the respective occupiers have no doubt concealed them from the World because it does not fit their lies,attest to this fact!” Jay,if you are an outsider,this will help you to understand the historical facts,but than again,you could be one of our neighbors who pretend Macedonia is theirs(Greeks and Bulgarian,so did Serbia before)claimed Macedonia is their territory and the people as well.Macedonians can not be tri-ethnics,is there such a thing?Only for occupiers. Peter if you are writing about a“Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that today’s ethnic Macedonians carry only 15.2% of the Slav gene“ you are definitely over your head. There is no such thing as a `slavic gene`or any other national gene. I think you are talking about certain haplotypes and it is true that all the peoples of the Balkans probably have a large portion of indigenous genetic origin. If you want to really learn read the following article and tell me where you see uniquely Macedonian haplotypes. All the people of the Balkans are very intermixed. Did you know that one of the original Bulgar tribes settled in Macedonia. I bet the Serbs never taught you that.` Another group of proto-Bulgarians, lead by Kouber, settled first in Pannonia, and subsequently in the region of Bitolya (Macedonia). That is so funny. How can you be called a Greek when you have a mix of so many haplotypes inclusing African and Turkish. Maybe you should be Afro-Turk Greeks, not just “Greek”. “The only logical conclusion can be that the southern branch of the Slavs is the oldest and that from it developed the slavic Western and Eastern branches…Today only a minority of experts support the theory of a late migration of the Slavs.”` Is that what they are teaching you in Macedonia now, that Macedonia is the origin of the Slavic languages, if so why do so many Macedonian fanatics get so excited when they are called Slavic” What a joke, you better tell the Russians that they inherited their language from Macedonians! And by the way most “experts” support the migration to the Balkans theory.Though some do think it may have originated in southern eastern Europe – not Macedonia specifically and if it did it is what the ancient Thracians of Bulgaria and the peoples of present southern Romania would have spoken. There is a good book on the subject that I have read “The Making of the Slavs: History and Archaeology of the Lower Danube Region, C.500-700`” by Florin Curta. Jay,have you read and understand my comment,or are you jumping blindly?.Read it carefully then answer.The problem with you people is,you don’t wait for the verdict before you can accuse the innocent person.These findings are not Macedonian propaganda,they are the findings of well respected Universities.My advise to you is,put the key on the ignition before you put the gear on.In other words,think before you open your mouth.Read it!! Jay and Robert,you probably learned history in your respective countries.Therefore,I am not surprised by your comments.In Greece history is taught as they like the world to see it,they even pay “historians”to write as per their political interests.The Bulgarians do the very same thing.Serbia was no different before 1944 either.Present PM of Greece robbed the banks in 1995 in the tune of 130 million dollars just for propaganda against the Republic of Macedonia and the indigenous Macedonian minority.Greece and Turkey don’t like each other,yet not a penny spent by Greece,they did not like each other with Bulgaria,now they are budies against Macedonia.Why do you think is this?Greeks disliked the Bulgarians since the illegal partition of Macedonia in 1913,this is also why the Greeks called us”Vulgari”.Greece has tried very hard to eliminate the Macedonian idiom in Aegean Macedonia,and still continues.Find out what former PM Mitsotakis said about Macedonia and the Macedonian minority,instead of commenting with your asses.What about Metaxas in 1936-40 has done to the Macedonian people.Hello,I lived there,I know and don’t need you to teach me my history. I learned Macedonian and Greek history in a neutral country.They had no interest to do what Greece and Bulgaria are doing to shove their thoughts to me.The Hellenization in Greece continues even today,so does the Bulgarization in Bulgaria,and Serbia did it till 1944.Thank God,we have one part of Macedonian land free of occupiers,and regardless who is in government we the Macedonians will support them as long as they fight for Macedonias rights! When a large number of the slavic majority reject the national-fascist arguments of Gruevski’s antiquisationism, this is a point of contention. The skopjian government has, according to many non-skopjian academics, decided to fabricate an identity based on regional ethno-histories. The argument that their ever was a slavic element before 700-900 AD is a purely skopjian manifesto. All the archaeological material we’ve seen in the skopjian museums while on holidays have either been, Illyrian and Paeonian (the actual indigenous people of the Balkans north of the Greek tribes in the Pindos range), Greek, Roman, and then later Bulgarian, etc. We find it very difficult how the skopjians under Gruevski’s leadership consider any of that material culture to be of Yugislav or Slavic origin, apart from the Bulgarian of course. There is no doubt in the minds of many of my friends in skopjia who I visit from time to time that their slavic ancestry is the product of migrations from the Ukrainian steppes where all the protoslavs originate. Now why this seems to be a problem for the current national-fascist skopjian governemnt? Our yugislav friends tell us that the skopjian government under Gruevski feel that the slav races were always considered primitive, backward, culture-less, and a total embarrasment to all the slav majority. Yet my friends believe that their slavic heritage is one of pride and full of culture. In the end the national-fascists in the skopjian government need to settle this with their slavic majority rather than continue this internal identity fued which is crippling the country’s EU progress, increasing both unemployment and poverty, and slowly alienating its own slavic people. I am starting to realize that arguing with a fanatical nationalist Macedonian is futile. It is like wrestling with a pig in the mud, after a while you realize that the pig likes it. It does`t matter anyway, I suspect that most people in Macedonia realize that they are an offshoot of the Bulgarian language and culture and when the Albanians finish and there is only a small rump state left with a tiny population of some 1.5 million people with no chance of entering the EU and no friends around them they will finally get very friendly with their Bulgarian relatives. Robert,Jay,both of you live in the Greek mythology. Gruevski is the one who will make the Macedonian people proud.Our neighbors can’t stand the progress Republic of Macedonia is making.Look in your backyards,you are plagued with corruption,people are pouring gasoline over them to show their frustration with your corrupt governments,and you find time to criticize the best Prime Minister in the Balkans,how naive!You are showing your frustrations with your own governments because he can’t be bought by your mafia style politicians.- Our rightful name Macedonia is no longer for sale,Gruevski will not sell our people as did Branco and company.As I pointed out,Samaras 130 millions he had robbed from the banks and had stashed in black garbage bags did not bring him any results. As for the Bulgarians,they are Tatars,and the so-called”Greeks” are Turks and Albanians,and that is a fact! So many Greek historians, you know so much about Balkan history and Slav migrations and genetic make up of peoples. Also so many Greek political analysts, you live in Greece but you know exactly how the citizens of Macedonia think and feel. If only there was more Greek economists, you could figure out that you have to work to make money, and you should make more money than you spend. If you do this, you wont be in the economic crisis that you are in, and you wont have your people starving and commiting suicide. Peter, if Bulgarians are tartars then you also are, after all a Macedonian is only a Bulgarian that had his mind removed by the Serbs and then stole a name and a false history for hinmself. Jay,Macedonians are not related to the Bulgarians. I take it you are educated enough to understand the reality.I suggest to you the following,if you are as I said educated individual,analyze the following;Greece is saying the Macedonians are Greek,but the Bulgarians are saying exactly the same that Macedonians are Bulgarians.The Serbs used to say the same.Here you are going against the Greek theory,and if you are Bulgarian,you are doing exactly the same.I am Macedonian,do you think I can be three different ethnicity?.Is this possible one person to be three different identity?.I respect a srtaightforward answer by leaving politics aside.What I mean is by an educated individual.Have a nice day! Peter, sure I will answer. I am not Greek, Bulgarian or Serb just love the region and people but I find the Macedonian nationalists uniquely strange people. They do not even acknowledge their own history. I have read a number of books written by people of the area in previous decades, even leaders of parties that fought for freedom. There is absolutely no doubt that there are many ethnic groups in the area so one must always be careful with generalizing but it is clear that most of the Slavic speaking peoples of the current “Macedonia” were formally considered as Bulgarians by themselves and virtually everyone else in the world. The proof of this is in the language, food, music, dress and physical appearance, not to mention historical Byzantine records and others. Further proof is in Bulgarian history of the pre-World War 1 period. Macedonians were a major element in the Bulgarian army for a time and were deeply involved with Bulgarian politics, constantly agitating for Bulgaria to “free” them and unite. Only a small element at that time wanted an autonomous political area. Even up until WW2 there were many fighting to leave Yugoslavia and join Bulgria. An analogy, to me anyway, is Austria, which does not deny it is German speaking, with its own dialect, shares German history, would be part of Germany if not for a few historical flukes, shares German culture but is none the less an independent country going its own way. I can understand that Macedonians would choose that route but to pretend that you are absolutely not of the Bulgarian ethnic and cultural world and never where is just plain historically inaccurate and false. To say that is to know nothing of early 20th century and previous history. Now alone come these “Macedonians” claiming to have nothing in common with Bulgarians, be DIRECT descendants of Alexander the Great!, have a unique, separate language! deny what their own grandfathers wrote in books at the time, and insist that everyone else stole their history is so ludicrous that it leaves on speechless. It’s a kind of counter reality that makes one wonder if anything in the world can be true. Which all sounds suspiciously like Stalinist type propaganda? No, I think this trend in Macedonia is more about a political elite left over from Yugoslavia that is trying to hold power for itself and using propaganda to do it. That and the pressure of the Albanian question, the tragic loss of territory and people to Greece in 1913 and economic poverty are blinding people to reality and frankly you are too few in numbers, geographic size and wealth for such behaviour. You need friends, allies and help and you have none anymore, except for American money and secret support for geopolitical reasons. But to answer your question, I don’t think Serbs any longer claim you are Serb, and few Greeks would either, although Greece has it’s own difficulties with accepting historical facts too! I am very impressed by Jay’s knowledge of history, ethnicity and politics. A few questions if Jay would indulge me, also someone who has no ties to the Balkans. Who is denying Austrians from calling themselves Austrian, even though they have German ancestry, traditons/culture, foods, common history and language. I know Austrians who dont have such a romantic view of Germany and definitely identify as “Austrians” and do not accept being referred to as “Germans”. You talk about “the tragic loss of territory and people to Greece in 1913”. I have a particular interest in this statement because I have been active on human rights issues throughout my life. Do you have an opinion on the “territory and people” that Greece has. Should Greece, the “Cradle of Democracy” and a member of the European Union recognize that it has within its borders people who are not “Greek”. Should these “non-Greek” people have any rights to self-identification, language, education, religion? Funny how if these “non-Greek” citizens of Greece are “Bulgarian”, that Bulgaria does not protest with its ally Greece about their status. Funny how these “non-Greek” citizens of Greece form “Macedonian” organizations and political parties and not “Bulgarian” organizations and political parties. There is a number of European Court cases by “non-Greek” citizens of Greece, including the case of the “Center for Macedonian Culture” in Florina, Northern Greece. The European Court ruled against Greece, and 20 years after the ruling the Greek government has still not allowed this cultural centre to open. Do you call this democracy? Re: genetic study of Balkans. In summary you are all virtually indistinguishable, genetically speaking. “Although the linguistic and cultural diversity found in the region could have acted as an important genetic barrier, Balkan populations have been shown to be genetically homogenous,and in concordance with the European genetic continuum, using both autosomal and uniparental markers even with the deep levels of resolution conferred by the large set of markers we typed. Linguistic and other cultural differences were probably introduced into genetically homogeneous groups and/or these cultural barriers were not strong enough to prevent genetic flow between populations.” Jay,you are wrong on the question of genetics.Once more,I am asking you to read what Oxford University as well as Madrid Universities have found in their study.Read Mario Alinei findings.These findings are not cooked up by Macedonians as Greece and Bulgaria would like you to believe.Alinei goes on to suggest as follows to prove that his findings are correct;”Here is a suggestion for the Greeks,how about DNA tests on the remains of the Royal Macedonian Tombs,uncovered and desecrated by “Greeks” in todays occupied Macedonia?Follow this up with genetic tests on modern Greek and Macedonian population…we will soon see the truth! Further,there is no pure Slav people…just like there is no pure”Greeks”. When the curator of the Athens museum suggested to the Greek government,to display ancient findings in its original discovery,he was fired.Obviously the Greeks are hiding the truth as Alinei is suggesting.Ancient Macedonian Tombs are found only in the occupied territory of Macedonia,and the Republic of Macedonia and none in Greece proper,same thing in Bulgaria.To be honest,I find Alineis findings very refreshing,and those of Oxford and Madrid Universities.It is obvious,Alinei in these findings is not influenced by Greeks,Bulgarians nor Macedonians. Jay,does it make any sense,three different nations to claim,we the Macedonians are one and the same as them,how is it possible?.You are mentioning that,the Macedonians look like the Bulgarians.Russians,Poles, Ukrainians do look alike,so do the Belgians with the Germans,Dutch etc.Greeks look more like the Egyptians and Turks.Macedonians have no blood line with none of our neighbors.Again,Alineis suggestion is perfect to sort out this problem.Our neighbors don’t like that,because it will uncover their lies! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists? Palmer,you and your idiotic comments are just that. Yes,the Greek unemployment was 7%,they lived on borrowed money,and they still do,have you ever considered that? A country who borrowed money,made its politicians millioners and left its citizens to pay for,it is a disgrace.A borrowed 600 Billion dollars with cooked financial books,Greece should had 0% unemployment. Here is one of Greek commentators wrote; “Who cheers for their football team?Who jeers at the phony Papandreou,the porky face of Venizelos,the blood-sucking Stournaras and Samaras… Politicians smell like the putrid fish that even a starving cat wouldn’t touch.”(James Petros) Palmer,the unemployment in Macedonia is lower than in Greece.Greeces unemployment is rising,and another 25K government employees will have to leave work as the agreement between the Troika.The GDP is shrinking in Greece,cannot keep up with payment of borrowed money, while Macedonias unemploymentis shrinking because of sound policies the Gruevski government has brought.There is no comparison between Papandreou, Samaras and the Greek puppet Crvenkovski with Prime Minister Gruevski.You must understand,a transition from communist run state to democracy it takes time,and time Macedonia has,because the pace of change in Macedonia is one of the most progressive in our neighborhood by any account.On March 24th you will see the local elections will bring mostly government supported candidates in all areas of the country,because of government policies for the country.Your rhetoric about anything and everything is a typical Greek losing propaganda.You claim,you are an outsider?The fact is,you are either a converted Ellino-Turkos or Ellino-Alvanitis,there is no other “Greeks” in Greece. Peter, I do not have the studies to which you refer, but when you write “Oxford University reveal that today’s ethnic Macedonians carry only 15.2% of the Slav gene, slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians! They further reveal that today’s ethnic Macedonians have the highest amount of the Mediterranean gene of all European people” it doesn’t make sense; you are really dealing with small, gradational differences in haplotypes. For example you can have a little more of say haplotype H2 than H1 in one area but they are both subsets of H anyway and do not distinguish a specific gene. One region can have a slightly higher haplotype than another region but doesn’t mean much because it is a statistical average and another region of Europe far way can high a similar average. Once again the best source is Europedia and there you can see that there is no great differentiation in any of the Balkan DNA. They explain very well how it all works. Well, I think this guy said it all about Macedonia. “This guy” is a true Macedonian, one of your great leaders before WWII and leader of IMRO and highlights the difference in Macedonian mentality before Tito and after Tito and the brain wash. I know Frank and other will say “yet another traitor”; there seems to be many. From an unpublished interview of IMRO’s legendary leader IVAN MIHAYLOV, done by the Skopje journalist Boris VISHINSKY. “I will answer decisively: I am a Bulgarian from Macedonia. At the same time, I have never ignored the geographical name of our country Macedonia.” “I would recommend to the young people in Macedonia to hold on to the fact that we have been Bulgarians for thousands of years. However, they should not avoid the idea of an independent Macedonia with recognized historical ethnic groups. Witnesses of the Bulgarian past of Macedonia are the Greeks, the Romanians, the Albanians, the Turks, and the Jews. These ethnic groups still live with their national names preserved for many centuries.” “I personally recognize only Bulgarian dialects in Macedonia. What you consider special literature and culture I think is nothing but a dialectal branch of Bulgarian national literature.” From Wikipedia “He was a follower of the idea about an independent United Macedonian multiethnic state with prevailing ethnic Bulgarian element, something as “Switzerland on the Balkans”. He declared also that Macedonia is Bulgarian and the Slavs in Macedonia are Bulgarian. All these people that had the power in Macedonia were serbophils or grecophils. He believed that the Macedonians are part of the Bulgarian nation and the founders of IMRO were people who accepted the San Stefano Bulgaria.[16] The Bulgarianness of Mihailov is recognized by several Macedonian historians like academician Ivan Katardzhiev, director of the Historical Sciences section in the Department of Social Sciences in the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts and the director of the Macedonian State archive Ph.D. Zoran Todorovski. According to Katardjev the policy of Mihailov for establishment of an independent Macedonian state meant a Macedonian state of the Bulgarians in Macedonia. That denotes a second Bulgarian state, but not a national ethnic Macedonian state.[17] Katardjev stated Michaylov’s view about the term “Macedonian” was, that this is a generalizing, regional term, including different ethnicities as Bulgarians, Aromanians, Albanians but not ethnic Macedonians.[18] Katardjiev defines all Macedonian revolutionaries from the period before 1930s as “Bulgarians” and asserts that separatism of some Macedonian revolutionaries toward official Bulgarian policy was only a political phenomenon without an ethnic character. Todorovski asserts that “All of them declared themselves as Bulgarians….”.[19]” Jay with all due respect,these findings are good enough for me,at least these are scientific findings. I am reading an article written in Russian “Ultima Ratio” “Proceedings of the Academy of DNA Genealogy,Boston-Moscow-Tsukuba”Volume 5,No.2 February 2012.The authors of these findings are;Anatole A.Kluosov&Pavel Shvarev. Articles in English; An emerging pattern of L664 SNP mutation in the Tenths(bearers of DYS388=10),North-Western branch of R1a1 haplotypes.Anatole A.Kluosov. New Understanding of Western Euroasia in Prehistoric Times by Anton Perdih,Ptr Jandacek. Lagoda Astrobleme by V.Yurkovets. I find only one E-Mail for “A.A.Labai”V12189@mail.ru This E-Mail”Gapogrupa T in Asia and Afrika.Try it,it goes 13700 years back and to 425 years of late. The DNA in the Balkans according to these two Universities do give accurate information in the difference between our neighbors and us.Macedonias neighbors would disagree with these findings no matter who introduces them,or done the research.Alinei is perfectly right to question Greeces and Bulgarias thesis on the difference between Macedonia on the DNA. Greece and Bulgaria,as did Serbia before 1944 are arguing on the basis of politics,not on scientific findings. Jay,have a nice day! Jay,in respect to your very last comment,I will answer as follows;In the 19th century,under the Ottoman occupation there were Macedonian schools through out geographic Macedonia.Many Macedonians at that time did attend schools in Bulgaria,Serbia and Russia and Ukraine. Misirkov attended school in Ukraine.Misirkov even served in the Belaruss parliament.Damian Gruev,the first president of Macedonia(Krushevo)He attended school in Salonika,Bitola, Sofia and Belgrade,so did the following Macedonian revolutionaries;Peter Pop Arsov,in 1894 he wrote a leaflet”The Stambolovism in Macedonia and its Representatives”,severely critisizing the Bulgarian ecclesiastical and educational propaganda in Macedonia,exclaiming:”The Exarchate gives money but buys the wind because the nationality cannot be bought with money.”He became chief editor of the Macedonian journal”Vine”He was expelled from Macedonia and left for Russia. A.Dimitrov,Dr.Hr.Tatarchev,Iv.Hdzhi Nikolov,Hr.Batendzhiev,Dimitar Pop Georgiev Berovski,he attended school in Salonika and Odessa Seminary in Russia.You must understand the history of Macedonia and its revolutionaries.On September 1903 the Greek PM Ralis at an interview for “New York Times” used insulent language against Macedonia and Macedonian revolutionaries.In short he said”we will co-operate with the Turks to eliminate the Macedonian revolutionaries,it is in our best interest”.Greeces interests and that of Bulgaria today is the same,to hellenize and bulganize the Macedonian people in order to have hold on the illegal partition of Macedonia in 1913 the Bucharest agreement without Macedonian participation.Jay,I have seen what the Greek military police were doing in our areas.Just one snippet;in 1947 12 of them came to my village,gathered all females,young girls and women at night and beat the hell out of them.The evidence was hair all over the school basement.They had to kill ship to use the fresh skin on their wounds.That was the best medical help for such inhumane beating. People on the outside,the world don’t know these human sufferings,I have witnessed them.Bulgarians were doing exactly the same.No Greek or Bulgarians citizens suffered as did the Macedonians under occupation.Do you understand the difference?.Tears flowing from my eyes even thinking about it. Jay,have a nice day! Peter, I located one article but in general we are probably getting above our heads here without being geneticists. Your reference to “New Understanding of Western Eurasia in prehistoric Times” doesn’t really state that Macedonians are different than their neighbors, it states “There is no evidence concerning the migrations of Slovenes or Macedonians during the 6 th or 7 th Centuries AD. Such mythology of migrations was fabricated between the 15 th and 20 th Century AD and has no documentation. There is ample evidence for the arrival of all of the neighbors of the Slovenes. There is also evidence for the migration of most of the neighbors of the Macedonians.” That’s probably true because there was no identifiable Macedonian nation until recent times. They were always considered part of the Bulgarian ethnic grouping so how could there be a record of their migration? Its mixing terminology and time lines. My point was that there are always differences in haplotypes even between two people living next to each other in a Macedonian village. It’s a statistical averaging that indicates there is no substantial difference in any Balkan ethnic group outside the gypsies and a few other small groups. There has simply been too much mixing for thousands of years for that. If not every nation would have only one unique haplotype. Regards So much discussion of history. I am more interested in what is happening today. There are citizens of a country in Europe that have the right to Self-Determination and Self-Identification. Greece is denying the existence of Greek citizens who claim a non-Greek identity, specifically Macedonian and Turkish. There are many Human Rights organizations that have written reports, and many European Court cases have been lost by the Greece on human rights. Greece goes further in trying to deny the existence of another country. If Greece wanted to be called Macedonia, it should have called itself Macedonia when it was formed in 1829???. Greece should have no problem with a country called Macedonia just because it has renamed its northern provinces to West, Central and East Macedonia in 1988???. There are many examples in Europe where one country is named the same as a province in a neighbouring country. If Greece is afraid of irredentist aspirations by Macedonia, it should address these fears. Is it the Macedonian Army, much smaller than that of Greece and Greece is a member of NATO. Is it that in some Macedonian school text books there is maps of a greater Macedonia, including lands that are now in Greece, Bulgaria and Albania? Is this any different than Greek or Albanian school text books which show a greater Greece or greater Albania? I believe that the only reason Greece is not recognizing the Republic of Macedonia and is such good friends with its long-time enemy Bulgaria, is the ethnic Macedonian minorities that live in Greece and Bulgaria. Grank,I agree with you 100%. Greece and Bulgaria are denying of the existence of Macedenian minority,and the illegal occupation of Macedonian territories since 1913. Former PM of Greece Mitsotakis admitted in 1995 by saying;”What made me uneasy from the beginning was not the name of this country…the problem for me was how to avoid creating a second minority problem in Western Macedonia.If the problem of the Slavo/Macedonian minority in Western Macedonia is added to the Muslim minority,which sadly,with our errors is a dangerous development,the situation will become unsustanable for Greek external politics..”emphasized the former Greek Premier. The announcement in the State Department report for Human Rights in 1991 for the first time mentioned the existence of of a Macedonian identity in Greece,was of particular concern to Mitsotakis.It has always been Greece’s aim to have Macedonia denounce the Macedonian minority in Greece and force Macedonia to accept International binding agreements that a Macedonian minority in Greece does not exist and to cease all propaganda aimed at Greece.This was key for the Greek-Skopjan defence”!remarked Mitsotakis.It is truly certain that after 1950 no such minority existed in our country,because the citizens with Slavic sentiment who fought on the side of the communist left at the end of the civil war”said Mitsotakis. Outside to official Athens however,there are some Greek intelectuals who have entirely different views on the name dispute.Athena Skoulariki a sociology professor at the University of Crete,for example says that Greece is tangled in a strategic dead end.”In the course of the last 16 years we have lost one battle after another and still have not seriously considered what we are doing wrong.Why is the outside World not supporting the Greek thesis on this issue?Why after so many years of trying has Greece not succeeded in convincing the international public?”asks professor Skoulariki. According to Skoulariki the Greek arguments are not convincing because it is a fundamental right of all people to freely choose their name.”We insist that our neighbor has no right to use the name Macedonia,ignoring the fact that during the 19th and 20th century there was a wider region called Macedonia”. Have a nice day! Sorry,I spelled your name wrong,should read Frank. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists? The only ugly stench I smell is emanating from the defecated and urinated pro-fascist statememts of our Greek friend Robert. He is probably smelling the stench from his Athens window and is confusing what he is writing. I am not surprised he is confused, Greece has over 50% youth unemployment rate, 30% general population unemployment rate, a Corruption Index worse than Swaziland, a quadrupling of suicide rates in the last 2 years, the slashing of salaries for government workers and pensioners, and begging for handouts from Germany and the other European countries, I would also want to shift attention away from my situation and talk about anything else. Please dont indulge Robert in any philosophical discussions unless he wants to address the problems Greece is facing and unfortunately not dealing with. Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists? Once again, our fine Greek friend is smelling the stench of defecated and urinated sidewalks outside his Athens apartment window, longing for the days that everything was paid for by his German friends. Now that the Germans can no longer be fooled by Greek lies, not even begging by Greek governments will bring any help. Soon Greece will sell its islands and all assets, and the European Union will start to empty the bank accounts of the poor Greeks as they are doing with the Cypriots. I feel sorry for my Greek friends who are more Albanian and Turkish than Greek, but still dream of a Megala Greece. Please dont commit suicide like many of your compatriots, its fun to read your stupidities and total lack of understanding how the world works. Palmer,you are at best an idiot.Twenty years ago in Macedonia the unemployment was at 0% to Greeces 7%. Today,Macedonia is doing lot better than you and your patriots in Athens.How does it grab you of more than 3,200 Greeks who commit suicides due to unemployment in Greece?.Greece will be the first country to go under with Cyprus.This to me shows,Greeks are the best fabricators,unfortunately it did ketch-up with you,you have no place to hide but the hole you have excavate.Do I smell frustrations that you cannot get out off?. Your comments on this site are pure idiotic,and only an idiot will continue writing them as you have,get a life! Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery of created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists? I came across a great article on Wikipedia under “Macedonian nationalism”. It sums up very well everything I have concluded as well from my experiences and readings. Includes ” until 20th century and beyond the majority of the Slavic-speaking population of the region was identified as Macedono-Bulgarian or simply as Bulgarian” ” in Macedonia the Bulgarophobia increased almost to the level of State ideology” ” Meanwhile, the Yugoslav historiography had borrowed parts from the histories of its neighboring states to construct the Macedonian identity, having reached not only the times of medieval Bulgaria, but even Alexander the Great.[29] In 1969, the first History of the Macedonian nation was published. Most Macedonians’ attitude to Communist Yugoslavia, where they were recognised as a distinct nation for the first time, became positive. The Macedonian Communist elites were traditionally more pro-Serb and pro-Yugoslav than those in the rest of the Yugoslav Republics” “Such antiquization is facing criticism by academics as it demonstrates feebleness of archaeology and of other historical disciplines in public discourse, as well as a danger of marginalization” And the real answer to the mystery of this weird nationalism ” then annexed by Serbia, part of the young locals repressed by the Serbs, tried to find a separate way of ethnic development”. In other words if they said they were Bulgarian the Serbs killed them so they said they were “Macedonian” and over time came to believe it themselves! Well, it’s actually rather scary as reminds one of a cult and we know what followers of weird cults usually end up committing. Jay,there was no such thing as Bulgaria during Alexanders days.What ever you have read,it has to be a Bulgarian version of fabricated history.Greeks and Bulgarians are very well known for co-operating with the occupiers during the Ottoman Empire,but also in the 20th century. Lets see,why did Bulgaria used the Veto against Macedonias membership in the EU,because of the film Macedonia made for the football team’s coach who was a Jew during the second World War.This year,they have recognized their co-operation with the Nazis and sending the Macedonian Jews from the Aegean and Yugoslav Macedonia to the concentration camps in Treblinka.Finally they have admitted.The UMD has asked the Bulgarian state to apologize to the Macedonian Jews. If Macedonia was Bulgarian,do you think they would have done that?They were telling Israel that they never send any Jews to the concentration camps from their own territories.Did they consider Macedonia as their territory and the Macedonians as Bulgarians?. Obviously NOT! The only common thing we have with Bulgaria is the Slavic language.There is no other lineage between Bulgarians and Macedonians.These two nations are two different people with absolutely no blood connection,period.I can tell you same with the so-called”Greeks”.Modern Greeks have no blood line with the ancient City States nor the ancient Macedonians. The name Greece is a new invention in the 19th century. The Macedonian name has existed for many centuries.The only country in Europe who retained their name is Macedonia. The Macedonian people have been put in a very difficult position from our occupiers,especially since 1913. The Greeks were and still are forcing the Macedonians to accept the Greekness as their identity.Bulgaria has been doing the same,so did Serbia and Albania. Just this week,Albania changed the toponims from Albanian back to Macedonian.The Albanian parliament voted 100% to do just that with no opposition to the amendment.Greece changed the toponims and family and christian names to Greek sounding between 1936-40 during the Metaxas dictatorship in Greece,and it continues today.Greek churches refuse to baptize babys with Macedonian sounding names.In other words,Macedonians have been forced to accept the occupiers demands or you have no job,or any benefits in the country.What do you think,if the country you live in tell you;you cannot baptize your child with the name you want,if you refuse,your child cannot be registered? In other words,that child does not exist. This is the choice the Macedonians have been put to in Greece,Bulgaria,and Serbia.Albania finally came to the right decision. Jay,you must understand the real situation the Macedonians are put in since 1913 before you can make a sound judgement of who are the people,whether by identity or otherwise.Remember,the occupier has the upper hand.We are happy we have one part free of occupiers,therefore,we ask for our own history back,not the occupiers fabricated version of history. Jay,have a nice week end! Palmer,once more,you know history from grade two. Your idiotic comments are just that,idiotic from an idiot. Peter, I understand when you say that you want an independent nation and that Greece oppresses it’s minorities. That is true from many sources. In fact I have never heard or seen in writing anyone say that Macedonia has to immediately join another country. But that’s also the problem that no one outside of Macedonia can seem to understand, why not just admit the historical truths, as recognized everywhere but Macedonia, and get on with building a country. Why all the fictions? Why destroy ancient artifacts that state “Bulgaria” that are found in Macedonia, it’s like the Taliban. Why say things like Macedonians are genetically unique, it’s just silly and goes against every credible genetic study there is. Why claim to have a unique culture and history when anyone that has visited Bulgaria and Macedonia can immediately see that the cultures are essentially identical? You have to admit to an outsider it looks strange. Peter, I think you need more experience with some issues but good responses! All the best. Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery of created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists? Jay,I would be happy to answer your concerns. Lets start with the Ancient artifacts,and for that read what Oxford and Madrid Universities have confirmed,by Mario Alinei,Dean Emeritus of the Utrecht University who is the director of several linguistic reviews and progenitor of the “Continuity Theory”states; “I have to commence by clearing away one of the most absurd consequences of the traditional chronology namely,that of the arrival of the Slavs into the immense area in which they now live.The only logical conclusion can be that the Southern branch of the Slavs is the oldest and that from it developed the Slavic Western and Eastern branches…Today only a minority of experts support the theory of a late migration of the Slavs. Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians carry only 15.2% of the Slav gene,slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians! They further reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians have the highest amount of the Mediterranean gene of all European people!This was also confirmed by the University of Madrid studies.In a court of law,it is genetic proof that is conclusive,I might add! Here is a suggestion for the Greeks,how about DNA tests on the remains of the Royal Macedonian Tombs,uncovered and desecrated by “Greeks”in todays occupied Macedonia? Follow this up with genetic tests on modern Greek and Macedonian population…we will soon see the truth! In summation…Ethnicays Ethnic Macedonians cannot possibly be of the old Mediterean substratum if they were Slavs arriving in the Balkans in 6th century AD…as the 19th century Western constru asserts!!ct Todays ethnic Macedonians are authocthonous to Macedonia,it is very simple! Their language,unintelligable to the Ancient Greeks,was a form of proto Macedonian/Slav,which then spread outward,becoming more complex as it moved further away from Macedonia.Countless proto Macedonian letters unearthed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia,and no doubt in Pirin and Aegean Macedonia,though the respective occupiers have no doubt concealed them from the world because it does not fit their lies,attest to this fact!” Above was written by Mario Alinei,it was not propagated by Macedonia.It is a historic findings that Greece has been fabricating throughout the world.Greece has been repeating their fabrications for too many years,and the public tend to believe.Since Macedonias independence,Macedonian historians are trying to proove to the world,what Greece is saying it is not true.The fact is,Macedonia has proposed to Greece and Bulgaria for the historians of all three to seat down and get the facts once for all.Both Greece and Bulgaria have declined the offer from Macedonia.I will lets you guess why they refused. Jay,on the culture with Bulgaria;The only place you will find same culture is in the Pirin Macedonia,I am not saying rest of Bulgarian culture is much different.The Balkan countries have addopted Turkish culture as well.A very true example is the music of all three nations,food that is none traditional Muslim,we also use Turkish words,after all,we were under the Ottoman Empire for 500 years.After so many years under the Roman and Ottoman Empires,we did not loose our language,although it is a bit of every different languages in it. Don’t forget, the Balkan languages have transformed as all over the world.Today, no one can claim ancient languages are spoken today in its own form.Greeces modern language was formed in 1856-58.Present Greek language was never spoken before these dates. I hope,I answered your questions as best as I could. Jay,you find a lot of writings on the internet,the likes of Wikipedia,they are written by the same actors who have been fabricating history,paid by our neighbors.Just imagine for a moment, Greece and Bulgaria claim,the Macedonians are “Greek”by the Greeks and the Bulgarians claim,the Macedonians are “Bulgars”,how can that be? Have a great day! Why do some people say that the Greeks claim the Macedonians are Greeks? I never see that, I have read that the Greeks say some of the Macedonians are of Greek heritage which is true, same in Bulgaria and Albania but most Greek writings I have read say that the Macedonians are mostly Bulgarians. Which I have to say, is pretty clear from the historical sources, including many in Macedonia as you well know. You also have to be more careful with the genetic references. I have done more reading on this subject now and the recent reports and tests over the last couple of years have clearly solved this riddle. There are many corroborating reports showing the entire break down of the haplotypes and origins of all the Balkans. The Slavic component is much less than many thought and the original haplotypes going back several thousand years and more are very predominant especially in Croatia, Albania and Slovenia the so called Asian haplotypes almost do not exist anywhere in the Balkans. I have to tell you the supposed difference in Macedonia, Bulgaria and Northern Greek DNA is almost none. If there is any difference it is that they can detect a few percentage higher of the Germanic haplotypes in Macedonia, probably from the Goths. Essentially you all have the same genetic background in the Balkans there is no way to credibly argue anything else now. Just go look at the detailed lists of haplotypes from the test results, don’t bother quoting some old article from a Professor in some minor college. Anyway, it always comes down to the same argument when dealing with Macedonians: they pretend that everyone wants to steal the country, they make up silly history, they find a couple of obscure references and ignore what their own ancestors wrote, they ignore all other references and data and they desecrate archaeological and historical sites if they don’t like what they find. The one that annoys me the most is the total rejection that Macedonian Nationalists have for even basic logic. They can somehow write things like Macedonians are totally different than Bulgarians. Yet, when it’s pointed out that the same people live on both sides of the Bulgarian/ Macedonian border like the Shops so how can they be different? They just ignore. By the way just go to Pirin (so called Bulgarian Macedonia) and tell them that they are not Bulgarian! 99% will laugh at you. When you point out what some of their own leaders and writers wrote in previous decades, they ignore. When you quote facts from dozens of reputable books and historical sources all they do is come up even more outlandish statements. Well, like I wrote before, it’s really makes no personal difference to me but the arguments of the nationalists are just so much nonsense. In fact you don’t really need to even go beyond the writings of the Byzantines. To them there was no such thing as Macedonians and there weren’t any until Tito decided there were. Anyway, what happens if the nationalist cult is successful? At best you end up with a tiny, landlocked country of almost no population in near civil war with the Albanians, totally corrupt administration and in deep, unrecoverable poverty. With fictional history and Bulgarian language and culture. ( I read a good quote that “Macedonian is really Bulgarian typed on a Serbian typewriter”!) That’s the goal? That’s the best you can hope for? If you didn’t have all these “enemies” all around you to focus on and had to concentrate on real issue like the economy and hope what would happen? Everyone would leave I suspect. I would really like some of the nationalists to detail what future they see in this hopeless situation, or are ALL of you living in the diaspora already? I have one question for Jay. He states that “I have read say that the Macedonians are mostly Bulgarians. Which I have to say, is pretty clear from the historical sources, including many in Macedonia as you well know.” Can Jay explain what people live in the north of Greece, in the provinces of West Macedonia, Central Macedonia, and East Macedonia and Thrace. Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery of created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists Palmer,obviously you are not an outsider.You probably never set foot in Macedonia,and further,you are repeating same over and over,to me that sounds like a rat! I suggest to you,look around you weather you are a “Greek”or a Bulgarian.Just look around your backyard;in Greece over 3,500 people took their lives,in Bulgaria 4 poured gasoline on themselves due to their misery that their governments created by corruption.It is shameful for politicians like them,who are robbing government financial institutions for their own pockets,and the ordinary citizens are forced to pay for.Is this what you are comparing Macedonia with?.It must be real painful for you to see Macedonias progress,to see Macedonias honest politicians with Gruevskis leadership doing better than their neighbors.The Macedonian people ,today will return the candidates from the “For Better Macedonia”coalition with Gruevski in the front.Those who have been selling Macedonia will be defeated on the polls today,because Gruevski brought the nation to its feet economically and financially ,an envy of our neighbors,and EU to praise the Republic of Macedonia as an example for the neighborhood. Proud Macedonian!! Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 5 (updated: David Cameron will announce a crackdown on European Union immigration rules, vowing to deport vagrants, restrict the right of foreign nationals to social benefits and call for new rules to stop “vast migrations” of Romanians and Bulgarians, the UK premier wrote in the Financial Times wrote today (27 November). , Cameron insists Europe has to reform “to regain the trust of its people”, amid fears that from 1 January the citizens of Bulgaria and Romania will have the same rights to work in the UK as other EU citizens. Cameron writes that “many people” in the UK are “deeply concerned” about the impact this could have in Britain, saying he shares this concern. Indeed, rightwing populist forces, such as the UK Independence party, with support from the tabloid press, have spread fears of the massive arrival of Bulgarians and Romanians after 1 January. Bulgarian and Romanian nationals have already been free to travel to the UK since their country’s EU accession, on 1 January 2007. The lifting of the labour restriction will not change the situation significantly, think-tanks have said. Cameron reminds that since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Britain has been the biggest cheerleader for EU enlargement. Indeed, his predecessor Tony Blair had championed the accession of Romania and Bulgaria, especially after these two countries offered their airspace to the NATO-led air strikes against the regime of Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia in 1999. Cameron blames the Labour government for not having learned lessons from the 2004 enlargement and giving Bulgarians and Romanians full access to the UK labour market after a seven-year transitional period. In his op-ed, Cameron writes that his government is changing the rules so that no one can come to the UK and expect to get social benefits immediately. Newly arrived EU nationals will not be paid work benefits for the first three months. After that, EU nationals will only be able to claim benefits for a maximum of six months unless they can prove they have a genuine prospect of employment, Cameron writes. The European Commission has repeatedly said that member states, including the UK, have been unable to substantiate their claims that economic migrants from other member states were putting their welfare systems to the test. “We are also toughening up the test which migrants who want to claim benefits must undergo. This will include a new minimum earnings threshold. If they don’t pass that test, we will cut off access to benefits such as income support. Newly arrived EU jobseekers will not be able to claim housing benefit,” Cameron writes. In what appears to be a reference to Roma populations from Bulgaria and Romania, the UK Prime Minister writes that “if people are not here to work – if they are begging or sleeping rough – they will be removed”, and that they will then be “barred from re-entry for 12 months, unless they can prove they have a proper reason to be here, such as a job”. Without naming Turkey, Cameron refers to possible future EU accessions, and says the EU should put in place “new arrangements that will slow full access to each other’s labour markets until we can be sure it will not cause vast migrations”. He suggests imposing restrictions on movement until a country’s GDP per head reaches a certain share of the European average or allowing each country to set an annual cap on EU migrants. Cameron will put the ideas at the heart of his proposed renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU ahead of a planned referendum in 2017. “We are not the only country to see free movement as a qualified right: interior ministers from Austria, Germany and the Netherlands have also said this to the European Commission,” Cameron writes. The package which Cameron is expected to publicly present today (27 November) was backed by the Tories coalition partners, the LibDems, as “sensible and reasonable”, the Guardian writes. The newspaper also warns that some Tory MPs are unlikely be satisfied with the package. A group of 40 Tory backbenchers are reportedly calling for the immigration bill, currently in the Commons, to be toughened up so that the existing transitional controls on Romanians and Bulgarians are retained until 2018. Such a move that would put the UK at loggerheads with the European Union, the Guardian adds. Insiders at the EU Commission told EURACTIV that interior ministers meeting in Brussels on 5 December will not form a united front with Cameron against free movement of workers as they are too divided on the issue. In accordance with EU law, workers from Bulgaria and Romania currently enjoy full rights to free movement in Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Hungary, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and the Czech Republic. Restrictions remain in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands and the UK. These typically require Bulgarian and Romanian citizens to have a work permit. As of January 2014 – seven years after these countries' EU accessions – those restrictions will be entirely lifted. EURACTIV France “Recent immigrants, i.e. those who arrived since 2000, are less likely to both receiving benefits and living in social housing than natives. Furthermore, recent immigrants, both those from EEA and non-EEA countries have made a positive net contribution to the UK fiscal system despite the UK’s running a budget deficit over most of the 2000s.” – It’s difficult to think of anything more divisive than these EU rules of allowing immigrants from very poor member countries to be able to claim welfare benefits in far richer member states. If the European Commission really wants to carry on fostering growing disillusion with the EU in Europe then they’re really going about it in just the right way. There should be no obligation moral or otherwise for richer European countries to pay any kind of benefits to new immigrants. They should have been working and paying taxes for at least five years in the host country before being able to do so. If they can’t find work in richer EU countries then they should return home and claim benefits from their country of origin. As for David Cameron he has just given another fine demonstration of just how little control an EU member state now has over its own domestic affairs. And to think that the UK pays dearly in ‘club fees’ for the privilege of having to implement daft and socially divisive rules. Who cares if Ingland wouldn’t be anymore in the EU in 2017 Brits do not want more immigration So David Cameron’s plan is to stop immigrant benefits for 3 months that will solve absolutely nothing. Firstly this is not allowed by EU and even if it were it immigrants will just wait 3 months and get full benefits. It also does not solve the problems of the UK having 2.5 million unemployed, low wages, where are the houses, the school places and it does nothing to deal with the NHS pressure. If Cameron thinks Brits will accept this empty policy he is wrong borders must be closed. Please sign and share, blog, tweet, facebook the Daily Express petition to stop EU immigration. Over 151,000 have signed. Sign here- I can ONLY find evidence that the free movement of EU citizens across the European Union is hugely beneficial to the UK and to the rest of Europe, and should not be restricted. We need government policies to follow evidence, and not prejudice. About 2.2 million Britons have taken advantage of EU rules to live, work, study or retire in other European Union countries. About the same numbers of citizens from other European Union countries have come to live, work, study or retire here in the United Kingdom. If all those EU expats living in the UK returned home, and all the Britons living in other EU member states also came home, the population of the UK would be about the same as it is now. (Sources: IPPR & Eurostat) However, that would be a backward step, because the citizens living here from other European countries make a significant contribution to our economy. According to research by University College London, immigrants to the UK from other parts of Europe in the last decade made a net fiscal contribution to the UK of about £22 billion. They contributed about a third more in taxes than they received in benefits. These European immigrants are about 45% less likely than British people to claim state benefits or tax credits. Most immigrants here from the rest of Europe are in gainful employment and make a substantial net contribution to our economy. My opinion is based on the evidence, empirically researched by universities, institutions, government, etc. So if the evidence changes, so does my opinion. If anyone has better statistics, please tell me; my opinion will then change In the meantime, my vote is for the UK stay in the European Union, and I would urge the government not to tamper with one of the core benefits of the EU: the unfettered, free movement of European citizens, as incorporated into the Treaty of Rome 1957. And it should be noted: unfettered does NOT mean EU migrants can simply arrive in the UK and immediately claim benefits. The eligibility criteria for benefits are very tough. For my blog about this, go to EU-ROPE dot com British young people are too lazy. Pole will come to the UK and he is working for minimum wage. What covers his spendings for apartment rental buying an food ect. Also he mange to save some money send it to Poland. Bingo ! I agree completely with you but in contrary to North America we have all in the E.U. our lovely “its me” interests with a lot of member-states more or less inequalized without federal structures but Yes unfettered has to be abolished in and for the Euro-zone first ! Objectively seen even with evidence of a net fiscal contribution to the UK of about £22 billion and make a substantial net contribution to UK’s economy won’t change nothing about the “we want out” or neither Cameron E.U. “immigrants” restrictions! The E.U. has first stop immediately to add more member-states first ! The E.U.17th has and should implementing federal policies for the Emu to fight inequalities and jobless between them! The E.U. 17th has at least to become a constitution with shared low-powers in having a protection protocol for all member-states together and perform as a master of one entity to re-rise that economy and drop jobless down in taking democratically European people directly into consideration after it! Leaders of member-states should take the first step for this like Alexander Hamilton did in Philadelphia, proudly said! After this it’s time for the European people for a lot of referendums! The most important is the Job with an affordable salary ! Not that what we are facing now ! If we move this fence away there is no stone anymore for the real Big European unified economy and achievement! Maybe then it would be for the UK an example to follow if they still want it without Cameron’s restriction! El Pluribus Unum The bottom line is this.. The European Union works both ways. They come here; we go there. Over two million Britons now live, work, study or retire in other EU countries. More British people are living in Spain, than Polish people are living in Britain. More British people are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany, than Polish people are claiming unemployment benefit in Britain.. Yes, the EU, it works both ways. Why does EURACTIV assume that all beggars are from the Roma community? I note that David Cameron takes care not to spread unhelpful racist stereotypes. There are a few inconsistencies in this report, for example UKIP is not a right wing party at all, it’s members are dissilusioned people from all the other three parties who would prefer Britain to run its own afairs not kow tow to a bunch of unelected failed foreign politicians. There is independent research which has predicted a large increase in the number of immigrants expected from Romania and Bulgaria when the restrictions are lifted that will be far in excess of the ones currently allowed admission. Blair was an idiot he considered that if he helped nations onto the gravy chain of being a net reciepient from the eussr that those contries would back him, they didn’t, not even for the presidency which he signed away the country in the constitution/lisbon treaty to try to get. Cameron isn’t even changing any rules, the three month regulation already applies he is just posturing and the unelected failed politicians of the commission are aiding him in his poor attempt to look like he wants to change anything in the eussr. The bottom line is that we don’t need any more people to come here and either put our citizens on to the dole or claim the dole themselves, not to mention taking up housing, they might not get public housing which there are long waiting lists for following the tories sell ing so much of it off, but they do tend to have a large amount living in bedsits in small conclaves of the same nationality. It isn’t only the foreigners taking British jobs but that generally speaking they are sending a large proportion of the money they earn back to their own countries, rather than here which is damaging our economy further, the additional strain placed on our health and welfare services means that those most in need of help are being denied any help at all via the french IT company ATOS which declares everyone who is disabled can work. Ben, please provide the sources of the independent research you claim has predicted a large increase in the number of immigrants from Romania and Bulgaria. Of course, predictions are just that – and most often, predictions prove to be wrong. All the independent evidence I have researched demonstrates unequivocally that immigrants from other European countries make a huge contribution to our economy. We will suffer without them. If you have real evidence to the contrary, rather than anecdotal comments, please share. My mind is open, but it’s only open to evidence, not prejudice. Well I suppose if he really wants to keek vagrants, the Roma and similar people away from England who can blame him? No one likes scroungers really. But unfortunately for those whose standpoint hovers thereabouts, the law has to apply to all and that would mean that I can say bye bye to the basic freedom to move around, to seek work or even to retire where we chose because some bureaucrat or other (examines your bank accounts; your attitudes and your propensity to nedd schools, hospitals or other public services etc)whom we will all presumably be asked to pay for. If indeed that is Cameron’s message to us we ought to ask for justification and not emotional posturing best left to the likes of UKIP. Freedom is too important to be used as a political football. Is it because we have an economic crisis…oops. As usual, it is easier to blame others than to fix the problems in one’s own house. The reason that immigrants to the UK are able to claim benefits is simply that the benefits system in the UK is a) too generous; b) easy to exploit, even for natives. Benefit fraud is rife in the UK, and certainly not only from EU migrants… In any case I fail to understand why Cameron and the tabloid press worry about Bulgarians and Rumanians, when the country is chock full of people from the India or Pakistan, and these are not EU countries! Who let them in? The EU? Surely not… and it’s not just India or Pakistan, it’s Jamaica and the West Indies, Nigeria, Australia… all outside the EU. Paolo, the eligibility criteria for the benefits system in the UK are very tough, and by no means the easiest or best in Europe. British citizens are claiming benefits across the European Union. For example, more British people are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany, than Polish people are claiming unemployment benefit in the UK. The benefits of the EU work both ways. As a benefit of EU citizenship, Britons are also allowed to live, work, study or retire in Bulgaria and Romania – and already an estimated 25,000 Brits do so. Already, almost 5,000 British businesses have established a presence in Romania, with our exports there now exceeding £1 billion. And many British businesses are now setting up in Bulgaria, including giants Glaxo Welcome and Tate and Lyle. This is all specifically facilitated through the direct benefits of our membership of the European Union. Paolo, the eligibility criteria for the benefits system in the UK are very tough, and by no means the easiest or best in Europe. British citizens are claiming benefits across the European Union. For example, more British people are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany, than Polish people are claiming unemployment benefit in the UK. The benefits of the EU work both ways. As a benefit of EU citizenship, Britons are also allowed to live, work, study or retire in Bulgaria and Romania – and already an estimated 25,000 Brits do so. Already, almost 5,000 British businesses have established a presence in Romania, with our exports there now exceeding £1 billion. And many British businesses are now setting up in Bulgaria, including giants Glaxo Welcome and Tate and Lyle. This is all specifically facilitated through the direct benefits of our membership of the European Union. Britain is always free to leave the EU, if they do not like the rules and do not want to abide by them. In this case the English citizens will no longer be able to work for the European institutions and consume salaries taken from the taxes of Bulgarian/ Romanians or other Eastern Europeans. The British citizens are also very welcome to leave their houses in Bulgaria, their companies should be invited to go away from the country, and the British tourists should stop disrupting the public order in the Bulgarian seaside, coming in massive hordes as uncivilized drunkards and drug addicts destroying the cultural image of the state. What has happened with the “Great” Britain’s “greatness”? The principle of common market and competitiveness so long advocated by the British is now neglected and ignored, because the Eastern European are better educated, working harder and more qualified that the average British person who simply can’t compete with them on the labour market. Shame on UK @Jon Danzig: I will give you just two examples: the benefit system in the UK is too generous and easy to exploit. You get a child allowance of 80 pounds per month regardless of your income, even if this is very high, even if you have never paid a pound in taxes to the UK, even if your employer would otherwise have to pay for the same amount. To get this, all one has to do is to get a NIN (National Insurance Number). Not to mention all the fake ‘single’ parents who get housing support from the councils, when in fact they have stable partners who they carefully avoid to marry, and often to live with on a stable basis, to keep the housing benefits. Not only this is costly for the taxpayer’s purse, worse yet it is disruptive to children’s life, and often leaves the weaker partner unsupported in case of any problems. I know of a “mixed couple” (British mother, EU migrant father) who work in my wife’s office who have exploited this so well that with the money saved they have been able to buy a cottage at the seaside (in his name) while she continues to live in council flats on benefits, as formally they do not live together. But the Brits have become addicted to these, and it is simpler to blame Bulgarians and Romanians, rather than fix the system. And this when the great majority (2/3 and more) of migrants to the UK come from OUTSIDE the EU… @Paolo, I accept that the system of benefits isn’t perfect, but this is not the fault of EU immigrants. Study after study have shown that EU immigrants make very little use of our benefits system, and as a percentage, considerably less than British people. Furthermore, independent studies have shown that EU immigrants make a significant contribution to the British economy. Most of them come here to work, and that’s mostly what they do. You wrote, ‘I know of a “mixed couple” (British mother, EU migrant father) who work in my wife’s office who have exploited this so well that with the money saved they have been able to buy a cottage at the seaside (in his name) while she continues to live in council flats on benefits, as formally they do not live together.’ This is anecdotal evidence, as I cannot verify it. But I am assuming you’re suggesting the arrangement you described is illegal. So I want to ask you: what was the reaction of the authorities when you reported this to them? I look forward to your reply. Austerity, there is a very small amount of British people who work for the european institutions the vast majority will never be in a position to do that so a handful of lost jobs won’t be much of a loss other than for those doing the jobs of course, but the money saved by not having to subsidize the huge amount of foreigners working in them will be an economic bonus for our nation. Bulgaia and Romanians, and all the other eastern european countries are net receipients from the eussr so they essentially pay absoloutly nothing towards the costs of running this monstrosity. I presume that you want us to throw out all the foreigners from the eussr countries as a reciprocal action for you throwing out the small amount of our citizens living abroad, although a lot of them returned from the eurozone countries who are having problems due to being in the euro. If you want to prevent us from having holidays in Bulgaria that is fine by me, there are plenty of places to go to on the Black sea. Perhaps you can give us some examples of how better your qualifications are, or that you work harder, anyone can come up with soundbites, indeed it is how politics in the corruption ridden, (proven), democratically deficient, (proven) eussr works. You are right Poalo it is far to easy for foreigners from the eussr to come and get more in benefits than they could ern in their own countries. When we allowed free movement from the commonwealth countries, we at least got people who came here to work, and frequently at a high level and brought much needed skills to the nation, like Doctors and Nurses, we don’t get those sorts of people from the eussr @Barry Davies: You have named the European Union as the EUSSR. In my view, there is a huge difference between the European Union and the Soviet Union, and I think your comparison is disgraceful. Far from being a one-party state, the European Union is made up of many governments, and democratically elected MEPS, from right across the political spectrum. The EU is a democracy with free movement of its people, unlike the sealed borders and oppressive one-party state that represented the now defunct Soviet Union. Regarding EU immigration: About the same number of citizens from other EU countries live in the UK as British people who live in other EU countries. Study after study have shown that over the past decade European immigrants here have made a huge positive net contribution to our economy. It’s true that countries such as Poland are currently net beneficiaries of the European Union. In time these countries will be rich again and will become net contributors to the EU budget. Currently they need a helping hand but it’s temporary. In the future, our young people will be going to work in Poland instead of the other way round – because it works both ways. Already many of our UK businesses are expanding and prospering in Poland and other Eastern/Central European countries. We should welcome back these countries that were hidden from us behind the Iron Curtain for so many generations, and give them the helping hand they need to restore their economies after the devastation of Nazi and Communist invasions. It should be noted that the UK has also benefited hugely from EU development funds. We’re a lot richer, with a much higher standard of living, than in the 1970s when we first joined the European community. @Barry Davies: actually I am a doctor from Italy, and the first time I came to the UK (for 7 months only) it was to work in an understaffed A&E, and I have to say that of the foreign doctors that started the period with me, most were from the EU and not from outside EU. Additionally, when the first foreign workers were invited, indeed encouraged, to come to the UK, it was to work in the London Underground (from the West Indies) or as factory workers – take for example the huge Italian colony in Bedford, most moved to work in a bricks factory, or (talking of Italians) the mine workers who emigrated into South Wales more than 100 years ago. @ Jon Danzig Quote More British people are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany, than Polish people are claiming unemployment benefit in Britain..Unquote Please supply proof or link to back up your statement? Thank you. @ Jon Danzig Quote It should be noted that the UK has also benefited hugely from EU development funds. We’re a lot richer, with a much higher standard of living, than in the 1970s when we first joined the European community.Unquote Are you referring to the process where as a net contributor to the EU we are given some of our money back which we must match. The EU tells us what we can spend it on while insisting we put up signs saying that XYZ project was funded by the EU? @George Mc left a message here but now I cannot find it. He was asking for proof that more British people are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany than Polish people claiming unemployment benefit in UK. Here are a couple of references; more can be provided later, or simply follow my blog EU-ROPE.COM Daily Telegraph: More than 10,000 Britons are claiming unemployment benefit in Germany Less than 7,000 Polish people are claiming Job Seekers Allowance in UK (I am in the process of getting the latest Government statistics on this) Also see my latest article: ‘Letter from Europe: Why I’m a Union man’ John Danzig do you not realise that the UK doesn’t get any money from the eussr, which is run by a bunch of unelected political failures lead by Barosso not an elected goverment, as a Net contributer we would be better off not giving as much to the eussr in the first place, because we get nothing from them other than a tiny proportion of our own money back. As for aiding the net receipents it took until 2005 before France became a net contributer, so how long will all the rest take? @George Mc also see: ‘New Society: The Myth of the Immigrant Benefit-Moocher’ dated February 2013 The article states: There are, in fact, fewer than 7,000 Poles claiming the Job Seekers’ Allowance. Indeed, there are fewer than 13,000 JSA claimants from the “Accession Eight” countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovenia). Whatever else these eastern europeans have been doing in Britain, they’ve not been mooching off the benefits system. And it is a lie – dirty and simple – to suggest they are. There are, in fact, twice as many benefit claimants from “old” europe as there are from “new” europe. @Barry Davies – probably a waste of time exchanging with you as you will not accept anything I write, but others are also watching and thinking and hopefully they will recognise the voice of evidence based reason. Most laws in the European Union are decided by the democratically elected European Parliament, which has the power to dismiss the entire Commission of the European Union. The European Union is a democracy of nations, and so has to be looked at differently to individual countries. No statespeoples are forced into membership of the EU, exit is possible, and every state has a right to veto new treaty rules. For more UKIP/Nigel Farage myths that you seem to enjoy promoting, see my article, ‘What Nigel Farage told British expats in Spain’ nigelfarage.mythexploder.com John Danzig:- I never accept anything just because someone has posted it, without looking up the real evidence, your blog doesn’t count as that. All laws coming from the eussr are created by the unelected commission, the parliament can not initiate any new laws whatsoever. How many times has a commission been dismissed by the eussr parliament, precisely nil, because they would never consider doing it, in fact they refused to ask the commission to remove a commisioner who was wanted for crimes in his own country, the commission passed a new edict, which bypasses the parliament entirely to ensure that commissioners are not able to be charged for crimes whilst in office or after they have left. The eussr is probably the most democratically deficient level of governance in the entire world, who elected the commissioners?, who elected rumpy?, and yet they hold all the real powers. The people are denied democracy, the constituion after all was democratically rejected, so the unelected commission simply renamed it the lisbon treaty, and that didn’t need a referendum so it was forced on to everyone. There is no right for any one country to veto anything, it works on qualified majority which prevents that from happening. Exit may be possible no one has tried it so far, but the closest thing to it was Ukraine ending its accession talks, much to the chagrin of the unelected barosso and the unelected rumpy. For more myths on how good the eussr is for the ordinary person ask any europhile, who just bekives eussr propaganda. @Barry Davies: You wrote, ‘It took until 2005 before France became a net contributor’ Where are you getting your information? France which has been a net contributor in every year but one (1980). John Danzig it was well documented that the commission stated that the real reason that the French voted against the constitution which the unelected commission renamed the lisbon treaty and forced on to us anyway, was because they had become net contributers for the first time at that date and were showing their displeasure of having to pay more tax, in fact it added to their economic woes along with being in the eurozone. Up until 2005 France was a net receipient. @Barry Davies: I am on record saying that my opinion is based on evidence, so if evidence changes, so does my opinion. The advantage of that is that I don’t have to lose face by changing my opinion in the light of new or better verifiable evidence. If you have it, share it (rather than just opinions). This is what I understand from my own research: The European Parliament can dissolve the Commission as a whole following a vote of no-confidence. Following pressure from the European Parliament in 1999, all 20 commissioners in the Santer Commission stepped down under threat of the Parliament forcing their resignation. The European Parliament and the Council of the EU are on an equal footing when it comes to legislating. They both have the power to amend legislative proposals, and they both have to agree on a proposal before it can be enacted. Parliament regularly invites the Commission to initiate new policies and the Commission is required to reply to oral and written questions from MEPs. (Is that good enough? No, not in my opinion.) EU Commissioners are not comparable to UK Ministers. They have far less executive power and are not in the situation whereby if they get something past a cabinet meeting, it will then almost always be adopted by a whipped Parliament in which the government has a majority. By contrast, EU Commissioners have to get agreement from both a large majority of national Ministers and a majority of MEPs. I believe the European Union is a democracy. It has no comparison to the single-party USSR that you claim. The Parliament is made up of 754 members, elected every five years by the citizens of all 27 (now 28)member countries of the European Union. It’s one of the world’s largest democratic assemblies, representing over 500 million citizens and with a wide range of political parties. Is there a democratic deficit in the European Union? Yes. There are also serious deficits in democracy in the UK. No democracy in the world is as good as it should be in my opinion. More power has devolved to the European Parliament over the years and I would like to see this continue. I want to see the UK stay in the EU and influence, lead, improve. Out of the EU, I believe our position in the world, our wealth and our influence will substantially decline. I accept you feel differently. My blogs have internet links to all my sources of information. Can you please provide a source to justify your claim that France only made net contributions to the European Union budget since 2005. I am on record as saying the eussr is a corruption ridden democratically deficient uneccessary form of government. So you must listen to what I am saying by your vision of how things work, indeed David Cameron is on record as saying that people drank from flower vases at Stafford Hospital, but thousands of people have pointed out that there weren’t any there from ten years before the alledged event, but because it suits his political needs to carry out the eussr imposed competion regulations to the health service, he is continuing to lie about it. Being in print is not neccessarily a pointer to the validity of anything. You would probably consider the earth to be flat if you read an old tome on the subject. @Barry Davies, Well I am prepared to read and listen carefully, but so far all you have offered are your opinions, anecdotes and no sources of evidence. You got it completely wrong about France not being a net contributor to the European Union budget. I remain to be convinced. By contrast, my blog articles have linked sources of verifiable evidence and information. EU-ROPE.com How have I got it wrong up until 2005 France was not a net contributer that is a fact and that comes from the eussr itself, the commission stated that they considered that was the only reason the french rejected the constitution. Your Blog on the other hand only contains your opinions, and clearly you have set out your stall to be governed by an anti democratic corruption ridden body, both of which are documented. You are one of those people who will not alter their views, such as we have seen throughout history that just follow the crowd like sheep. If the European Union stated that France was only a net contributor to the European Union budget since 2005, please provide the internet link as previously request. I believe your information is completely wrong. France has been a net contributor to the EU budget for a very long time. I will let other readers who wish to read my blog judge for themselves; my blogs contain facts and evidence with verifiable links to the sources. @ Jon Danzig Quote It should be noted that the UK has also benefited hugely from EU development funds. We’re a lot richer, with a much higher standard of living, than in the 1970s when we first joined the European community.Unquote Are you referring to the process where as a net contributor to the EU we are given some of our money back which we must match. The EU tells us what we can spend it on while insisting we put up signs saying that XYZ project was funded by the EU? By : George Mc – Posted on : 29/11/2013 PS our standard of living improvement in the 70’s has more to do with improved industrial relations (less strikes) than anything to do with the Europe @George Mc: ‘A European Commission study of the single market in 2007 found that the EU GDP was raised by 2.2 per cent (€233 billion) and 2.75 million jobs were created between the introduction of the single market in 1992 and 2006. For the UK, that increase in GDP would have been around £25 billion. ‘The Government’s Department of Business, Innovation & Skills estimates that EU Member States trade twice as much with each other as a result of the single market –which they estimate has meant that increased trade within the EU since the 1980s could have been worth around six per cent higher income per capita in the UK. Exports to other EU countries account for 51 per cent of the UK’s exports of goods and services, worth £200 billion; trade with the US, by contrast, constitutes 13 per cent of UK exports.’ Source: European Movement @ Jon Danzig Sir Andrew Green of the pressure group Migration Watch said the report had “been spun” (UCL). “We’ve had roughly four million immigrants under the previous government – two-thirds of those were from outside the European Union,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. He said the report found that, “since 1995, they have made a negative contribution overall”. He added: “So the verdict for non-EU is that the benefit to the exchequer is minimal or negative.” He accepted that “if you take the whole of the EU”, the benefit was “clearly positive”. But Sir Andrew said this would be expected “because you are including German engineers, French fashion designers and – as it’s the European Economic Area – even Swiss bankers [sic]”. “The real issue for the future is the very large numbers of low-paid immigrants from eastern Europe,” he said. He added: “The report looks backwards but doesn’t look forwards. “The professor’s report does not take into account – no doubt for good reason – future health costs as migrants get older nor the pension bill, which is huge.” You are clearly very keen on the EU and I respect that. I on the other hand disagree and I have taken the trouble to visit your Blog and I have got to say without having spent too much time that I have found you are not averse to being selective with some of your Blogs, but more on that later as time is constrained at the moment. I accept that being part of the single market works for the UK it is all the other crap that goes with it. The lack of democracy (more on that later) and the EU’s drive for the great project where all is centralised in Brussels. I am firmly of the view, like many others that the EU is broken and needs fixing and that will remain a problem unless they get their collective finger out whether the UK is in or out. Incidentally I do not believe that it is an either or. We can co exist without surrendering everything. The UK is a very important market for the EU so please let us not dwell on extremist or petty solutions to the UK being a problem for Project US of E. @George Mc – I broadly agree with Sir Andrew about the positive benefits of EU immigrants. The picture does change in many reports if you include all immigrants. I also respect that you are against the EU. I voted NO in the first referendum. I look forward to the next one, if there is one. Thank you for visiting my blog. You wrote that I am selective in my blogs. If that means I choose what I want to write about, yes I agree. Who doesn’t? If you mean I am being misleading or inaccurate in any of my articles, please be specific. I always endeavour to be a truthful reporter of facts, which is my training and experience as a journalist. If we leave the EU, we will not have free access to the Single Market. So far, I have not heard any convincing arguments as to how the UK will keep free access to the Single Market, without having to accept all the single laws of the EU, such as with Norway. Jon Danzig: You are so brilliant responding to these people, keeping calm, lucid and even funny, even though their answers don’t even try to make sense. @uk-skeptic Thanks for your comment; always nice to receive something positive for a change! I’ll treat you to my exchange with Julie on The Telegraph last week: Julie: The EU is an organization based on Communism. From the amount of posting you’ve done on this article, it seems as though you are a professional troll. Jon: Thanks for your comment. I’ve looked up ‘troll’ in the dictionary and found two definitions: 1. An ugly cave-dwelling hairy creature 2. An anonymous abusive anti-social user who delights in causing disharmony and conflict online; sometimes paid to do so As I post under my own name and endeavour to be polite, and I’m not paid, I guess you must mean the first definition. (Seems a bit unkind.) You also wrote that the EU is based on Communism. This might come as a shock to the European Peoples Party, which is centre right wing and anti-Communist, and which is by far the biggest political party in the European Commission and Parliament. Anyway, I have to get back to my cave now. Some readers may be interested in my latest article: Latvia: From Soviet Union to European Union Some readers may be interested in my latest article: Latvia: From Soviet Union to European Union In Ukraine, >350,000 have protested in the streets because of the decision of their beloved government to stop trade talks (and possibly accession talks) with the EU. This is very clear everywhere in Europe, maybe not so much in the UK where the “independent” BBC has tried to downplay this critical aspect. Maybe membership of the club is not so negative as some brit nostalgics (of the bygone empire that was) would like to portray it… Paolo Paolo if you think that the BBC is independent and anti eussr you are very much mistaken, they are the worst media for promoting the monstrosity. @ Jon Danzig I have been rather busy with family matters and have had to let my posts on Euractiv take a back seat. I have not therefore had the time to read your blogs which is a bit of a dump of information, certainly where Churchill is concerned. Like all these things it is easier if you are following the blog and not just diving in (no disrespect intended). I know that emotions can get very high when the ‘Great Man’ who was a little complicated, is quoted and when others try and put a different interpretation on his speeches. You have been quite free in using his speeches and I wonder how someone who says he is a serious journalist manages to leave important quotes out. Or are you indeed overloading people with information and missing out bits which do not suit your argument? Let me say straight away that any quotes by Ted Heath have no credibility at all as we know he admitted lying about Europe to the British people. He really isn’t a creditable source about what Churchill may or may not have believed. Britain and Europe: The Culture of Deceit Bruge Group I have found the following account of Churchill’s speech on 19th September 1946 entitled: I Wish To Speak To You Today about the tragedy of Europe. It finished………………….In all this urgent work, France and Germany must take the lead together. Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia – for then indeed all would be well – must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine. There is no mention of us being part of the New Europe. With so much Churchill on you Blog I wonder How you missed that one? Another link for you: “We are in Europe, but not of it,” as Sir Winston summarised the UK’s position. “We are interested and associated, but not absorbed.” Quote If we leave the EU, we will not have free access to the Single Market. So far, I have not heard any convincing arguments as to how the UK will keep free access to the Single Market, without having to accept all the single laws of the EU, such as with Norway. Unquote. Jon, it does not have to be an either or. Most people would accept that if you wish to trade with Europe (or any one else) you need to follow the rules. There is absoletely no reason why the UK could not have a looser association with the EU while trade moves in both directions. That should be to quote Churchill “We are in Europe, but not of it,” “We are interested and associated, but not absorbed.” The abject negativity of the Euro-philes is quite depressing in a country which I believe has a bit more of a can do attitude. Some would argue that we are hamstrung by the bureaucracy that is the EU. I am sure that as a journalist you apply reason to your thought process and I was wondering how you would articulate the agreement that South Korea has negotiated with the EU. My understanding is that it is as advantageous as our arrangement with Europe without having to lob £8 billion net into the EU coffers. They also do not have to pay attention to the judges of the ECHR whose interpretation of the laws we helped set up are gradually changing. This court is now saying saying that the laws are not fixed but are an organic and living thing to be to be dealt with as they see fit. Although not part of the EU this court and its judgements have now become compulsory for EU members and is part of the Lisbon treaty, as I understand it. Can you justify the above and the following links: In the following article Daniel Hannan sums up why many Brits are unhappy with the EU and how it has grown very undemocratic arms and legs. Regards George Mc @George Mc – thank you for your comments. I don’t have time today to reply to all your points, but if you fully read my article about Churchill (and from your comments I am not sure you did), I accepted (as did Edward Heath) that in his 1946 speech Churchill did not envisage Britain being part of the United States of Europe that he wanted us to help create. However, I also quoted Churchill from later, in the 1950s and 1960s, in which it appeared to me that he had changed his mind, especially in response to the collapsing of our Empire, and diminishment of our Commonwealth. You and others can read those later quotes of Churchill and judge whether the conclusions I came to were valid. Also, you and others keep quoting from Churchill that he wrote ‘We are in Europe but not of it’. Yes, he did write that, but for an edition of the Saturday Evening Post in the USA published on 15 February 1930. Why is this date never mentioned by Eurosceptics? I cannot find any other reference to Churchill making this quote later on (please let me know if you can). It matters, because politicians can change their minds – as Churchill did often. And what he said and wrote in the 1930s and 1940s clearly varied to what he later put forward in the 1950s and 1960s. In Churchill’s last speech about Europe in 1957, just after the signing of the Treaty of Rome which set the terms for the new European Economic Community, Churchill said, ‘We genuinely wish to join’. During this speech, he argued against the EEC being formed of just the original six founding nations, because that would do more harm than good. When the UK applied to join the EEC in 1961, Churchill wrote, ‘I think that the Government are right to apply to join the European Economic Community..’ In 1963, Churchill also wrote, ‘The future of Europe if Britain were to be excluded is black indeed.’ I don’t think you can deny that Churchill made positive references to the UK joining the European Community during the 1950s and 1960s. It’s pure speculation whether or not he would accept the European Union as it is now, but during his lifetime, in the context of Europe, Churchill did accept that national sovereignty could be abrogated for the greater good. Regarding Ted Heath, when did he admit to lying to the British people? I think your ad hominem attack on Heath is too strong and demeans your argument rather than bolstering it. Now, regarding how – as non-EU members – we could have free access to the Single Market of Europe without accepting the same rules that, say, non-EU members Norway and Switzerland have to accept. This is still a mystery to me. What looser arrangement do you believe the European Union will allow us that it won’t allow to other non-EU members? I just cannot see that we could achieve a better deal than Norway and Switzerland, but I am open to persuasion if you could be more specific. Generally, I think the trade deals that the EU agrees with other countries have served us well. The EU-US trade deal currently being negotiated will be worth many billions to the UK if it goes through. How will you explain to voters in a referendum that if we leave the EU, we will not benefit from that enormous EU-US free trade agreement? The more I learn about what life might be like for the UK out of the EU, the more I believe that the country will be poorer , more isolated, and with considerably less influence and importance in the world. One problem Eurosceptics have is that whilst we know what life is like in the European Union (good or bad), you cannot tell us for sure what our arrangements might be if we left the EU. It’s all vague speculation and a walk into the unknown. My blogs about this are at EU-ROPE dot COM @George Mc – PS In that BBC link you provided which reports Churchill’s speech of 1946: The BBC stated, ‘So while the UK joined the Council of Europe as a founding member, it declined to sign up to the European Coal and Steel Community – the body that would evolve into the EU – in 1951. “We are in Europe, but not of it,” as Sir Winston summarised the UK’s position. “We are interested and associated, but not absorbed.” What seems odd about this BBC report is that nowhere in the 1946 speech did Churchill say “We are in Europe but not of it” etc. The only reference I can find to Churchill saying this was in 1930. However, I am more than willing to be corrected if you or anyone else can find other sources. @George Mc: interesting intervention. It seems to me that your saying that the UK could have trade deals with the EU, without having to contribute to the EU coffers and without having to comply with the judgments of the European Court of Human rights, and this would be better for the UK. Well, it all depends on what kind of trade deal the UK gets… if any. South Korea got one because, clearly, the country cannot join the EU and a treaty was advantageous for both parties. But maybe a treaty with the UK might not be advantageous to the (rest of the) EU, in which case there may be no treaty at all. And if a treaty is discussed, who would have more bargaining power, do you think, between a 60m people island, and a continental block of 450m people? (who by the way might feel not in their best disposition, because of the departure of the UK from the club). Where would the mighty City of London be, if access to the common market was blocked? Every club has an admission and annual fee. The EU’s one includes the ECHR and the contribution to the EU bureaucracy (much lighter and more efficient than that of many member states, often including the UK). Usually people stay in a club because the find the annual fee bearable, although an annoyance., to enjoy the many advantages. Do not overstate the fee, and underestimate the advantages … among which I would include the ECHR, which has in many occasions defended individual rights against the excessive power of national politicians and judiciary. 1. If the UK left the EU, WTO rules which both the UK & EU are signatories to would apply as a framework. 2. I very much believe the EU would be very eager to carry on trading with the UK for the very simple reason that the EU exports far more to the UK than the other way around. Why give that market to rivals through trade restrictions/retaliations? It makes no sense. If anything a free trade agreement would make more sense with a non-EU UK than it would with almost any other country in the world given the size of trade flows and mutually compatible economies. 3. Despite the EU the market for financial services is still difficult to sell into unlike for selling manufactured goods or so I’ve been told. Indeed, the UK has long suffered access problems in this regard apparently. 4. The UK may lose some market access to EU markets, but at the same time could become a centre for offshore Euro trades as it did for offshore US dollars in the 70s & 80s & is looking to do for offshore renmimbi. My point being that no longer being regulated by Brussels may open up new opportunities whilst losing others. Hard to know how it would balance out at this stage. 5. I also think the EU would want to stay on friendly terms with the UK given it is the only other country in the EU besides France with any kind of military capability. It’s useful for joint defence. 6. However, you can’t overlook that the EU could chose to be spiteful and seek to undermine the UK so know one else leaves the club. I suppose if the UK did start to prosper outside the EU, it could be embarrassing. It’s very clear now that the UK has greatly benefited from not being in the Eurozone. Even the fanatically pro-European Liberal Democrats party in the UK now no longer talks about Euro-membership for fear of looking completely stupid & out of touch. It would be counter-productive for the EU to try and punish the UK for leaving, but it can’t entirely be ruled out. In which case the South Koreans and other countries that have negotiated free trade deals with the EU are incredibly lucky not to be Europe as they aren’t forced to make such difficult binary choices. As for the ECHR I detect very little net benefit to the UK. It spends a lot of time over-ruling quite reasonable decisions by UK courts. I think the ECHR is widely despised in the UK. @ Jon Danzig The people were never consulted. Heath didn’t even tell his Foreign Secretary, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, that signing the Treaty of Brussels to secure our accession committed us one day to joining a single currency – Sir Alec forced Heath to admit this afterwards. The one lie that did untold damage was the lie admitted on TV by Edward Heath when he said that “There would be no loss of essential sovereignty”. That is simply a lie and is not deniable! Jon I am afraid you need to read this link and then I think if you are a fair person you will agree that Heath was devious and dishonest, words which I believe are far from strong. Britain and Europe: The Culture of Deceit It is a longish article but if you allow your Browser to help and use its search facility and type in Heath you will understand what I am saying. Heath’s quote on National TV was telling. Quote In a television broadcast to mark Britain’s entry in January 1973, Heath said: “there are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified”.Unquote I do not have time to pursue the rights and wrongs of the Churchill quotes but would simply say that he was a Great War time leader but his judgement for or against Europe is open to question by all sides. I like to debate these things with others but I do also have a life. I take the point that you and indeed Paolo have made regarding how could we possibly do better than Norway or Switzerland and would point you in the direction of Justin Pugsley’s post. I know it is tedious but you need to read the links that I posted in my original post. I have absolutely no doubt that outside the EU we would be able to negotiate good trading arrangements with countries like the USA and Canada. In fact I believe that the EFTA countries have had an agreement place with Canada long before the EU tried. It is worth pointing out that it is probably more difficult for the EU to negotiate an agreement with another trading block as they have to pay attention to the interests of all 28 member states while good old Norway and Switzerland have less to trouble them in their negotiations. I am not even against a trading relationship if we have to pay a bit. My problem is with being drawn further into the Spiders web with more and more sovereignty disappearing. As a Nation I have no wish to end up like a National Hunt Stallion, Gelded! @George Mc: I have to sleep but just wanted to clarify: You claimed Heath had admitted he lied, and I asked when did he do that? Your answer only says he lied, but that’s very different to him admitting so. Tonight at a conference I asked at a meeting about Europe a simple question: Why would I vote to lose my citizenship of Europe and with it the right to live, work, study, retire or do business in any other EU country’ The UKIP representative replied that there are many Americans living in Europe without having to be a member of the European Union. But on closer questioning from the Chairman, he admitted it would be a problem, as UKIP is against the policy of the free movement of people. Of course, what he also failed to make clear is that Americans living and working in Europe can only do so with a Visa, and they are not easy to obtain. The bottom line is: I am proud to be British, but I don’t want to lose my citizenship of Europe that provides me with so many benefits. On the question of being able to negotiate good trading deals with the USA and Canada as a non-EU member, we will have to agree to disagree. Our trading with the USA is dwarfed by its trade with the EU, and it’s absolutely impossible that the USA would entertain the same advantageous trade deal with us on our own as the one being discussed with the EU. @George Mc: I have to sleep but just wanted to clarify: You claimed Heath had admitted he lied, and I asked when did he do that? Your answer only says he lied, but that’s very different to him admitting so. Tonight at a conference I asked at a meeting about Europe a simple question: Why would I vote to lose my citizenship of Europe and with it the right to live, work, study, retire or do business in any other EU country’ The UKIP representative replied that there are many Americans living in Europe without having to be a member of the European Union. But on closer questioning from the Chairman, he admitted it would be a problem, as UKIP is against the policy of the free movement of people. Of course, what he also failed to make clear is that Americans living and working in Europe can only do so with a Visa, and they are not easy to obtain. The bottom line is: I am proud to be British, but I don’t want to lose my citizenship of Europe that provides me with so many benefits. On the question of being able to negotiate good trading deals with the USA and Canada as a non-EU member, we will have to agree to disagree. Our trading with the USA is dwarfed by its trade with the EU, and it’s absolutely impossible that the USA would entertain the same advantageous trade deal with us on our own as the one being discussed with the EU. Being proud to be British and wanting a part of europe, the eussr is not europe, citizen is mutually exclusive, you are either British or a foreigner. People have migrated for centuries, it wasn’t invented by the eussr, and in or out that will not alter, in fact it was due to eussr imposed regulation that it became difficult for anyone outside the evil empire to migrate to the UK. Iy should be obvious that UKIP would be against the free movement of people in the eussr, after all UKIP want out of the whole corruption ridden democratically deficient body, and part of that is the bonus of not having foreign criminals beggars, and health tourists being able to just turn up on our shores. We have trade deals outside of the eussr, which since we joined has been a negative trade balance anyway, i.e. we buy far more than we sell. You should have asked the question why are there so many traitors who for their own personal greed want to give away our nation to a bunch of unelected foreigners to run. @Barry Davies, I am going to end this exchange as it’s getting nowhere, and also, I strongly object to your use of the term ‘EUSSR’. This shows no understanding or respect for those people who truly suffered and were horribly murdered in their millions under the Communist and Nazi regimes. There is absolutely no comparison with the EU and the USSR. Such comparisons are reckless, childish and nonsensical. The EU has democracy, human rights and free market trade as the non-negotiable membership requirements for all members. All member states of the EU volunteered to join, and all are free to leave at any time. The USSR was not a democracy, but a one-party state. There were no human rights, or respect for life. There was no free market, but a state controlled one. Member states of the Soviet Union were forced to join, under threat of violence that was often used to bludgeon any member state that didn’t comply. No countries caught up the Soviet sphere of control were free to leave, until the Soviet empire itself collapsed. As far as I am concerned, any Eurosceptic that tries to claim that the European Union is the same as the Soviet Union has lost the argument, and in time, will lose the referendum. Rational readers who want to learn more about one country’s 60-year struggle from the Soviet Union to the European Union may wish to read my article published this week: ‘Latvia: From Soviet Union to European Union’ John Danzig we don’t need to read any of your blogs posts or whatever to realise you are delusional and pro eussr. As far as I’m concerned any europhile that continually refers us to stuff he has posted has no argument to speak of. If you are unable to see that the eussr is not a democracy then you are not removing those pink lensed spectacles. We won’t lose the referendum because the camaroon won’t ever dare to give us one, because the British public never voted for this monstrosity and no matter how much propaganda that the government spout the number of people who will be fooled by it is diminishing. @ Jon Danzig You claimed Heath had admitted he lied, and I asked when did he do that? Your answer only says he lied, but that’s very different to him admitting so. Jon I don’t wish to polute the site with a huge cut and paste. Please read it and tell me what part of it is wrong or untrue. Any reasonable person reading this or many other articles which can be found on the internet can only come to the conclusion that the British Public were kept in the dark. The reasons for that are also logical. Because Heath did not stand up and say I lied does not mean that he didn’t. Only someone who is deliberately being obtuse could say that. Harold Shipman never admitted his guilt does that mean he didn’t do it? Take a look at a copy of the leaflet that went out to every household before the referendum. You bang on about being proud to be British and proud to be European and that you don’t want to lose the benefits of being in Europe. Please do not take this as an insult but I can’t help wondering if your name and family history may inform your opinion. I have had discussions in Pubs with people who have Continental surnames (Spanish, German and Polish) and when questioned closely they admitted they liked to keep a foot in each camp, which is fine but at lease it makes them different from the majority. If you find this question in some way offensive or it is off track then I apologise. The so called personal benefits to being part of the EU is the right to work, live or retire where ever you like. In reality how many many in fact do this who would not have done it anyway. In reality if you have the language and job skills required you can go and work anywhere in the world whether it be Paris, Moscow, Tokyo or Timbuktu. The only real benefit for the majority is retirement. You also go on about the EU being democratic…..really? I am indebted to the Eureferendum website for the following The European Union is democratically controlled Part I – The Council of Ministers In answer to the charge that “Europe is undemocratic and that power lies with unelected, faceless bureaucrats,” the UK Representation of the European Commission is fond of reminding us that The most powerful decision-making body, the Council of Ministers, is responsible through its members to parliaments and electorates in every EU country. Furthermore, it states, “Each country decides how to make its ministers accountable.” Thus, the Commission effectively argues, because Council members are responsible to their electorates, the European Union is democratically controlled. (It goes on then to describe the role of the European Parliament – we will deal with that in Part II of this piece.) In order to explode this particular myth – that the Council somehow adds democratic legitimacy to the European Union – we simply need to look at what the Council is, and what it does. Firstly, the Council itself. In fact there are many “Councils” each dealing with specific policy areas – like environment, transport, fisheries, agriculture, etc. Their members are the sectoral ministers from the member states, each council comprising the same number of ministers as there are member states. So what do they do? The answer to that is quite simple – they “legislate”. That is, they receive proposals from the unelected Commission, asking them to take powers and/or responsibilities from their member state governments (or to impose obligations on their citizens). They then turn these proposals into laws, giving the Commission the powers it asks for – often acting by qualified majority voting – thereby depriving their own governments (and/or citizens) of power. That’s it. From then on, the Commission having been given the power, it keeps it, to exercise as it thinks fit. The Council has no further part to play in the process, unless or until the Commission comes back to ask it to amend or extend those powers (or both). Does the Council maintain an oversight over how those powers are exercised? No. Has the Council any power to call the Commission to account over the way it uses its powers? No. Can the Council remove or modify those powers, if it is unsatisfied with the way the Commission is performing? No. Does the Council even have the power to ask the Commission for information on its performance? Er… No. So what is the Council? In effect, it is a transfer station. On the basis of proposals from the Commission, it handles the process of taking powers from member states, packaging them up and shovelling them into the Commission, for them never to be returned. Does it ask the electorate in advance – through an election manifesto – what powers it should hand over? No. And is any record kept of which particular ministers vote for what, so that they can be taken to task by their electorates, if they vote the wrong way? No. That’s democratic? The European Union is democratically controlled Part II – The European Parliament In Part I, we looked at the UK Representation of the European Commission’s answer to the charge that “Europe is undemocratic and that power lies with unelected, faceless bureaucrats,” and dealt with the claim that the Council of Ministers conferred a democratic element to the European Union. In this second part, we look at the European parliament, the only directly elected institution in the EU, and assess whether it confers any democratic element to the European Union. All the Commission claims of the parliament is that “direct elections” have “created a body with a clear mandate from the electorate”. “MEPs”, it continues, “are accountable for their work on legislation and in scrutinising the other EU institutions”. The use of the word “mandate” in this context is interesting. It is generally held to mean the sanction given by electors to members of parliament to deal with a question before the country. In other words, the candidates for the election set out their stalls, the electors look at the rival offerings and choose between them. In national elections, this choice has some validity because the winning party – or coalitions – go on to form a government, which then (in theory at least) executes the voters’ mandate. But in the European parliament, this cannot happen. For a start, the election does not produce a government, so the parliament has no power or authority to execute a mandate. It cannot, for instance, decide to repeal any EU laws – it can initiate laws provided the Council agree. Those powers lie elsewhere. Therefore, the candidates – or the parties they represent – cannot produce manifestos in any meaningful sense of the word, as they have no means by which they can deliver on promises made. Furthermore, in a parliament of 736 members, Britain elects only 73 MEPs, and then from different parties. But even if all were from one party and were clearly set on one course of action, they do not have the numbers to dictate terms. Even as a united bloc, they are swamped by the members from other member states. Therein lies one of the central defects of the European parliament. The essence of a parliamentary system is that it is the core of a system of representative democracy, where the members go to parliament to represent their electors’ views (and safeguard their interests). But British MEPs cannot represent the interests of their electors – there are not enough of them to do so. Furthermore – and this strikes at the heart of the concept of a supranational parliament – there is no commonality of interest in the peoples of the member states that would enable discrete blocs to emerge that could be adequately represented by a multi-national coalition of MEPs. In other words, there is no European demos and, without that, there can be no European democracy. As for being “accountable for their work on legislation and in scrutinising the other EU institutions”, as the UK Representation of the European Commission claims, the suggestion that the EP is “accountable” begs the question of to whom? Without any meaningful manifestos, the electorates have no yardstick (metrestick?) against which to measure the performance of their supposed representatives, so there can be no way of holding representatives to account. Further, due to the arcane voting system in the parliament, MEP voting performances in the main (plenary) sessions are most often not recorded. By far the bulk of votes are settled by a show of hands, which means there is no record kept of who voted for what. The average voter has no ready means of determining how their MEPs behaved. But the ultimate indictment of the system is the way that legislation goes rolling on, even when a new parliament is elected. In the UK system, when parliament is prorogued prior to an election, all outstanding legislation – not yet passed – falls. Not so in the EP. Newly elected members can and do find themselves voting on the second or third readings of laws that were introduced to the previous parliament. The names and faces may have changed – the voters may have completely shifted their allegiances – but that makes absolutely no difference to the nature of the progression of legislation through the parliament. Then there is the scrutiny of “other EU institutions”. In fact, there is no EP scrutiny of the Council, but the only scrutiny worth a light is, in any case, of the Commission. Here, commissioners do put themselves up for questioning by MEPs but, as recalled in an earlier Blog, anyone who has seen this done knows full well what a charade this is. The strategy is well established and cynically transparent. First you have a sympathetic “chairperson”, who is able to make sure the “right” people are picked to ask questions – and also allow for the token antis (just to prove they are “democratic”). Next you pack the committee with patsies who can be relied upon to “soft-ball” the commissioner. Then, you take questions in blocks of five, so the commissioner can “cherry-pick” the bits of the package he/she wants to answer. You also impose a time limit on the whole session, and let the commissioner waffle on as long as he/she likes, until time runs out without any of the awkward questions from the token antis being answered. And, of course, supplementaries are either not allowed or severely curtailed. As a result of this, the questioning sheds light only on this issues which the commission wants to reveal, and no serious examination every takes place. Sessions end up as an opportunity for commissioners to propagandise or, as the case may be, evade accountability, while giving the appearance to the outsider of being open to scrutiny. Some apologists for the EU, however, take a different tack when discussing the democratic legitimacy. They point to national parliaments, like Westminster, where most law is passed in the form of regulation, passed automatically through parliament without even a vote; where the government majority can ensure the passage of Bills without being troubled by the opposition. But there is a difference. Individual MPs do represent their constituents and, if the nation really gets worked up about something, the House collectively can force a change. Even the mighty Thatcher government was forced to look again at the poll tax. Even at a minor level, with technical regulations that are causing problems, chances can be secured by the intervention of an MP, concerned at the loss of votes, or seeing the opportunity to attract some favourable publicity. That difference tells the whole story. No matter what individual MEPs might think about an existing piece of EU law – and even if all 732 members wanted it changed (which is highly unlikely) – it cannot force a change. The unelected commission has the absolute right of initiative, and can ignore parliament completely. This makes the parliament a toothless entity but – more to the point – its existence does not confer democracy on an essentially anti-democratic organisation. @ George Mc: Your post is too long. I suggest that it’s much easier – for both of us – to deal with one point at a time. The Bruges site quotes Heath as saying in June 1971: “there is no question of Britain losing essential sovereignty”. And in January 1973: “there are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified”. I agree with Heath’s statements. They are true today as they were then. I don’t believe he was lying. In the UK, our Parliament rules supreme. That hasn’t changed. Today’s Parliament can choose to repeal the European Communities Act 1972. Today’s Parliament rules supreme over all decisions of all previous Parliaments. And tomorrow’s Parliament will rule supreme over today’s. If we had lost sovereignty, that would not be possible. The vast majority of laws in the UK have been debated and voted for in our democratic Parliament. Just a small fraction of our laws emanate from the European Union; and all of those laws have also been democratically decided by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, in which Britain is fully and democratically represented. Furthermore, the laws of the European Union mainly involve the facilitation of trade, of benefit to us all, or Europe-wide protections of all its 500+ million citizens. Such as protection of the environment, safety of medicines, and uniformity of products; and protections from international crime, abuses of privacy, and personal data, etc. @George Mc: you do provide some interesting light on the shortcomings of the policy-making mechanisms in the EU, and I for one agree that the powers given to the Commission were probably needed in the 60’s and 70’s, but could be modified now. And of course it’s true that no “national delegation” of MEPs has the power to overcome all the others, but that’s exactly the same in the single member states: are the MPs from Wales or Scotland able to significantly influence Westminster Parliament? Of course not, which is why the Scots have set up their own, but with the absurdity that, not there being an English Parliament, Scottish MPs get to have a say on purely English matters, but English MPs cannot have a say on purely Scottish matters. No system is perfect… The fact that the EU system can and should be improved is not a reason to leave the EU, for any country. And for the simple reason that it would not be convenient for the Member State, not the EU. However, Barry Davies is probably right in stating that voters can easily be influenced by prejudice and outright lies, and be persuaded to do things that clearly go outside their own interest: after all, Lenin and Hitler and Mussolini got into power with lots of votes given to them by the (misinformed and emotionally-driven) people. If the lunatic isolationists like Mr Davies get their way, unfortunately Jon and I will have only bitter satisfaction when we say “told you so…”. John Danzig Heath lied pure and simple we have lost our essential sovereignty, that is why the awful words european union appear on our passports. We sacrificed our independence, and are now governed by an unelected body of failed politicians. In the UK our parliament no longer rules supreme, it is governed from Brussells, and spends most of its time rubber stamping edicts from the commission. A vast majority of our laws now come from the unelected commission rather than those decided and proposed by our politicians, you have to wonder why they produce manifesto’s they have no chance of implementing. You don’t have to be in the eussr to trade with it, in any event we have a negative trade balance with the eussr unlike our positive trade balance outside it. Paolo the commission didn’t exist in 60’s and 70’s, so it wasn’t even needed then. As for Scotland having no influence in westminster the last three prime ministers had scottish origins, and the Welsh have also had prime ministers and other roles in the government as well, so it is nothing like the lack of influence in the pointless powerless eussr parliament. The simple fact is that there has been no indication of the eussr revoking any law or relinquishing any power once it has taken it, indeed we had the wholly anti democratic behaviour of the commission refusing to accept democratic rejections of the constitution, and we wound up with it being called the lisbon treaty, so that no democratic input was required. The lunatic federalists will never see the advantage of being free from this control by an unelected body in a corruption ridden democratically deficient entity, but those of us with more vision who are not just guided by propaganda can see the obvious advantages of being free to trade throughout the entire world, and set restrictions on who can enter the nation, without having to support parasite nations. For those who doubt that Britain has retained sovereignty, please answer the following question with either A or B or C: Which is the only authority that has the power to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, or indeed any Act of Parliament? A) The British Parliament B) The European Parliament C) The European Commission A one letter answer please. Thank you. For those of you who are in any doubt about sovereignty answer one question Can a nation just leave the eussr when it chooses to a, yes b, No (hint it’s b) To the back of the class @Barry Davies. All member states of the European Union joined voluntarily, and are free to leave if they want to. The answer is a straight A to both quizzes (but the rational folk here already knew that, I hope!) Go to the headmaster and explain your failure to listen in class john Danzig, you are incorrect. @Barry Davies, drat you’ve drawn me in again. Well, all readers, and myself, deserve to see your evidence. Please keep it short… Here’s mine: Withdrawal from the European Union is a right of European Union (EU) member states under Treaty on European Union (Article 50): “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.” I agree matters were more difficult before the Treaty of Lisbon. @Barry Davies: Barry, Jon is right. It is true that before Lisbon there was no explicit mention of withdrawal for a country, but now there is, and the treaty even says that after the (unilateral) declaration there are two years to agree exit, but if nothing happens then after 2 years the COuntry stops being a member anyway, and all EU treaties and legislation become void. So all it’s needed is for Westminster to have a vote, and voila’, in 2 years UK is out. @Barry Davies: to the back of the class indeed! Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty 1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. 4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49. @ Paolo Thank you for your agreeably mature post where you at least accept that things are not right. I think we can agree that the attitude of some where they will defend the indefensible, come what may, helps no one. Quote are the MPs from Wales or Scotland able to significantly influence Westminster Parliament? Of course not, which is why the Scots have set up their own, but with the absurdity that, not there being an English Parliament, Scottish MPs get to have a say on purely English matters, but English MPs cannot have a say on purely Scottish matters. No system is perfect… Unquote Paolo both before and since the Scottish Parliament the arithmetic for Labour has often been that they rule in Westminster with the support of Scottish Labour MPs. Indeed if my memory is correct Student fees in England were approved because of the support of Scottish Labour MPs, while their colleagues (MSPs) had rejected the same for Scotland. In fact if the Conservatives were to support Independence for Scotland and this was successful Labour would be unlikely to govern in England and Wales for many many years. You are correct that this raises the ridiculous situation raised by Tam Dalyell, ‘The West Lothian Question’. No MPs in Westminster can vote on devolved matters and I honestly believe that Scottish MPs should only have the right to vote on matters affecting the United Kingdom. For the avoidance of doubt that means Scottish MPs should not be able to vote on English/Welsh or NI matters. It does raise questions about how you justify them with not much to do. Perhaps less of them in bigger constituencies. Quote The fact that the EU system can and should be improved is not a reason to leave the EU, for any country. Unquote. We are going to struggle Paolo to find common ground on this one. I personally do not believe that individual nations in the EU will negotiate with the UK in good faith. For 40 years we have seen each country try to gain advantage for their own citizens with France and the CAP being an absolute classic example of how things do not work very well. Brussels and the Commission are terrified that this would open the flood gates for other nations and even the disintegration of the EU. I also disagree with your statement: “If the lunatic isolationists like Mr Davies get their way, unfortunately Jon and I will have only bitter satisfaction when we say “told you so…”. Unquote It is not for me to defend Barry, he is a big boy and can do that for himself. It is your choice of the words “lunatic isolationists” where we part company. To describe all of us who disagree with you as lunatics, takes the discussion into territory where non of us can have a reasonable debate. I believe that we have to answer all points made even if that gives us some difficulty. Not like some on here who just ignore the points made and answer with something entirely different. In addition anyone who has studied British history and knows the British people should know that we can be described as many things but Isolationists would not be one of them. @ Jon Danzig “there is no question of Britain losing essential sovereignty”. and “In the UK, our Parliament rules supreme. That hasn’t changed. Today’s Parliament can choose to repeal the European Communities Act 1972. Today’s Parliament rules supreme over all decisions of all previous Parliaments. And tomorrow’s Parliament will rule supreme over today’s. If we had lost sovereignty, that would not be possible.” Fortunate for you in that case that the Lisbon treaty has Article 50 so I don’t see how Parliament was sovereign before that as has been already said somewhere thee was no escape clause. So let look at your logic; Heath and co hid the real destination of the EU from the British electorate and as we know today at that time he had no escape route. You still think he did not lie even though we have got further involved, a bit at a time without the British Public giving their consent. Saved by Lisbon because now we have the nuclear option? …….Really! With that sort of logic old boy could I suggest you are ideally suited to a political career where you can really put you talents for obfuscation and illogical thinking into practice. I am sure Brussels could use you. @George Mc – once again, we have to agree to disagree. What Parliament decides, Parliament can undecide – even our decision to join the EEC/EU, and even before the Lisbon Treaty. We have not abrogated our sovereignty. That’s also why any law to make us have an EU referendum in future is not binding on a future Parliament, because a future Parliament could decide simply to kick it out. All regulations from the EU are not imposed on Parliament; they are agreed by Parliament. Your style seems to be to cast aspersions on anyone who posts an opposite view to yours. That’s the worst form of debating. I do not attack you personally. I only challenge and attack your arguments and evidence; but never you personally. I accept and respect that you hold a different point of view. I am on record as saying that my opinion is based on evidence; so if my source of evidence is wrong, or is replaced by new or better evidence, my opinion will change. It’s as simple as that. So far I am not convinced by the arguments and sources of evidence you have presented here, but that doesn’t mean to say my mind is closed. I voted NO if the first referendum; I could vote NO again, but not based on what I have read, learnt and researched so far. To me, the evidence is overwhelming that outside the EU, the UK will be a poor little island with diminished influence in the world, and will probably have to adopt a low-wage economy to survive. I want the UK to avoid that fate. @Jon Danzig I have no wish to debate further with you Jon but I do however believe that this should be posted as it shows a credible point of view from an unlikely source who are also quoting people with more credibility than your good self. It does, I believe shoot the fox that says Britain’s future is bleak outside the EU. In-Out Debate: What Britain Really Gets From EU Membership February 06, 2013 – 04:57 PM By Carsten Volkery in London As European leaders get ready to negotiate the EU budget at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, Britain is debating whether membership in the bloc makes any economic sense. Perhaps surprisingly, it’s virtually impossible to find hard proof of any net benefit. British Prime Minister David Cameron wants to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. British Prime Minister David Cameron will get another opportunity to present himself as guardian of European Union fiscal prudence when government leaders of the 27-nation bloc meet in Brussels on Thursday for a special summit to agree on the EU budget for the coming seven years. ANZEIGE A previous attempt at a deal failed in November because of deep disagreements between the net contributors on the one hand and net recipients as well as EU institutions on the other. The billions of euros in payments to Brussels are one of the reasons why the EU is so unpopular in Britain. Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher negotiated a rebate for her country in the 1980s, but Britain remains the fourth-largest net contributor. In 2011, the country paid some €7.3 billion ($9.9 billion) more into EU coffers than it received back in the form of structural aid. Cameron wants to limit the increase in the budget to the inflation rate — a position that is the most hardline of all the net contributors. Brussels budget negotiations regularly spark a national debate in Britain about whether EU membership makes any sense. Does the British economy really profit from the EU in net terms, or does being in the club cost money? The debate has been waged with even greater passion in recent weeks since Cameron announced Britain will hold an in-out referendum on EU membership in 2017, if he gets re-elected in 2015. Cost-Benefit Analyses Inconclusive Economists are divided on whether a British exit would be in the national interest. A number of economic cost-benefit analyses of EU membership have been conducted over the years, and their conclusions have been contradictory. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research once calculated that an exit from the EU would reduce Britain’s GDP by 2 percent per year. Other researchers see EU membership as a drag on growth that costs 3 percent of GDP per year. Predictably, the euroskeptics and EU backers cherry pick the statistics that best suit them. One popular argument is that 3 million British jobs depend on exports to the continent. Although that figure may be true, it would be wrong to argue that those jobs would suddenly be lost if Britain were to quit — because British companies would go on selling their products to the EU. Other non-EU members like Switzerland and Norway are part of the European Free Trade Area. No one would suddenly start slapping tariffs on British products arriving in the port of Calais in France. But the theory that British companies would flourish if they were released from the troublesome EU rules is equally arguable. The British government says that around half the regulatory requirements that directly or indirectly affect companies come from Brussels. The EU working time directive, which has reduced working hours for most employees, is particularly controversial. According to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), it costs British companies some £1.8 billion (€2.08 billion) a year. But these rules would probably be replaced with others decided in London. “All thse studies have to be treated with caution,” said Iain Begg, an economics professor at the London School of Economics. The economic consequences of an EU exit depend on the subsequent arrangements Britain would make with the Continent. No reliable estimate of the cost is possible, he said. He added that it probably wouldn’t have much impact — either positive or negative. “The influence of the EU on the domestic economy is grossly exaggerated.” In 1973, Britain Was the Sick Man of Europe But Ruth Lea, chief economist of Arbuthnot Banking Group, is convinced that the British economy would benefit from an EU exit. She cites an example: According to the European Comission, the EU’s executive, the single market increased the economic output of all EU member states by €240 billion in 2006. In the same year Günter Verheugen, an EU Commissioner at the time, estimated that companies had to shoulder bureacracy costs totalling some €600 billion — more than twice the economic benefit. “The EU brings Britain no economic advantages,” said Lea. She said economic incentives have changed fundamentally in the past 40 years. When Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973, it was the sick man of Europe. The country used to admire the economic dynamism of the Continent, said Lea. In addition, tariffs used to play a much bigger role in those days, so the single market brought real benefits. But the EU is far less attractive today, she continued. Lea argues that the trading bloc is becoming less important in global terms, the euro zone is mired in crisis and tariffs no longer play a role thanks to the World Trade Organization. The argument for EU membership is no longer compelling, said Lea. It’s a view that many in Britain share. Lea herself concedes that there are no reliable figures. No calculation includes soft factors such as London’s political influence in the EU. And how can one measure the future investment behavior of companies that value Britain as a European location with access to the single market? There are gaps in the analysis of existing figures. If the British Taxpayers’ Alliance estimated the cost of the common agricultural policy to be £10 billion, they’re doing so without taking account of the alternative scenario. “What would happen if Britain leaves the common agricultural policy?” said Begg. “British farmers would demand the introduction of national subsidies.” In addition, labor and social standards wouldn’t change much if the working time directive were abandoned, said Begg. “I can’t imagine that we want to become a kind of Hong Kong of the West. We would be more like Canada. The British welfare state is much older than the EU.” You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 6 At the request of the president of Macedonia, the EU Ambassador in Skopje apologised yesterday (19 November) for having called the majority of the country’s population “Slavs”, a development that could harm efforts to find a solution to Macedonia’s name dispute with Greece. EU Ambassador Aivo Orav made a statement in an attempt to calm accusations that the EU was denying Macedonians the right of self-determination. President Gjorge Ivanov asked the EU envoy to apologise, local media reported. Orav spoke last Thursday to the European Parliament's foreign relations committee in Brussels, using the term “Slav Macedonians” to describe the majority of the country’s population. Slavophone Macedonians are 64% of the population, followed by ethnic Albanians (25%), Turks (3%) and Roma (1.9%) also present. While accepting that they speak a Slavic language, Macedonians consider themselves descendents of Alexander the Great. Such a reading of history raises eyebrows in Athens (see background). A Macedonian official told EURACTIV that speaking a Slavic language did not imply being of Slavic ethnicity. He compared Macedonia with Spanish-speaking Latin America, where the population could not be called “Spanish”. on the Macedonian government website published on Saturday left no doubt about the fury the EU envoy unleashed in Skopje. “Regarding the use of the term 'Slav Macedonians' by Ambassador Aivo Orav, the Government considers that such treatment does not contribute to the solution of the open question that our country has with its southern neighbour, and expresses strong disagreement, protest and condemnation,” the statement reads. The Macedonian government also slams the EU envoy for having expressed “disrespect for the fundamental principle of self-determination and self-naming”. “It should be realised that consciously or unconsciously shows an issue has been opened not just regarding the name of our country, but for its identity, the statement says, warning the European Commission that it has moved to “dangerous grounds”. Orav said that the key message he had tried to convey in Parliament was positive for Macedonia. “I was describing inter-ethnic relations and ethnic communities in a way that was understandable to the audience. I was not making a political statement of any kind,” Orav reportedly said, according to the EU mission in Skopje. The comments made big headlines in Macedonia. Former Macedonian Ambassador Risto Nikovski, quoted by the daily , said the statements by Orav indicated that Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle wants to make the name controversy solution a Brussels condition for the country’s membership to the EU. Up to now, the conditionality was only raised by Greece. However, everything appears to indicate that to the contrary. Füle and his team want to give Skopje the chance to start accession negotiations even before an agreement on the name issue materialises [ Sources told EURACTIV that the “disproportionate” reaction of Skopje risks endangering accession efforts. Matthew Nimetz, a US diplomat who is the UN mediator between Skopje and Athens over the name dispute, has just begun a new negotiating round while the latest nationalist episode unfolded. “This is a very untimely development,” an EU diplomat said. Macedonia declared independence from the dissolving Yugoslavia in 1991. The country is an ethnic mosaic. Slavic Macedonians (as foreign diplomats describe them) represent the largest group (64% of the population). Ethnic Albanians are the biggest minority (25%), with Turks (3%) and Roma (1.9%) also present. Of all the hurdles standing in the way of Macedonia's EU accession, the so-called 'name dispute' with Greece appears to be the biggest. Seen from Athens, the official name used by Skopje – the Republic of Macedonia – is an open challenge to the Greek region of Macedonia. In reprisal, Greece vowed to veto Macedonia's participation in international organisations, including the EU, until the issue is resolved. Although Macedonia is recognised as the country's constitutional name most EU countries, the name dispute with Greece has led to an impasse for the country's membership of both the EU and NATO. Greece also considers that Skopje is misappropriating large chunks of its ancient history. The airport in Skopje was named after Alexander the Great, who is seen by Greece as a hero of its ancient history. Recently, Skopje angered Athens by of a ‘warrior on horseback’ resembling Alexander the Great. Naming the Skopje international airport “Alexander the Great” was also seen from Greece as a very bad idea. Well, personally I do not consider to be by any means related to the Alexander fellow you are talking about. However, I am a Macedonian. And any other name for my nationality/ethnicity is inappropriate. And lets just pretend that the people living down our southern border actually care how we are called. The problem is that if they accept formally our existence, they will have to return the property to the people they have banished from their territory a half of century ago. And pardon me if we, Macedonians lack the European sense of humor. But it is kind of frustrating that we complete all tasks, make efforts to meet all imposed conditions by the EU and everybody can call us how the hell he/she finds suitable. Maybe from tomorrow we will start calling the Austrians kind of Germanish…they sound alike to me (no one should get insulted, this is just a rude comparison of how i felt reading this). Therefore, the apology was in order…I am just sad that it is something that had to be asked for! To put it in perspective, this is the situation when you want to belong to a the popular kids group in high school, and do everything you can to get there, but nobody likes you because your name sounds stupid! EU envoy apology must be regarded as an example in EU institutions in the future for anyone who try to use offensive language for others. Compliments to Macedonian president Ivanov for his dedicated intervention. I really can’t get comments like these…Our real history is that we are an independent country since 1991, a country in which I proudly live and work. A country with mixed tradition and beliefs. However, a one different from the countries that around us. So if someone who lives in the US, feels Bulgarian…right one brother. However, don’t involve me in your group. Cause that is not my history. Therefore, don’t speculate if I am a Greek, Bulgarian, Serbian, Albanian or an Eskimo…I am a Macedonian. However, a contemporary Macedonian, not an ancient one:) It’s not a matter of feeling Bulgarian. It’s a matter of factual history. I don’t care if Macedonians want to become Martian. It’s up to them but Macedonians demanding an apology for calling them something accurate is just too funny. It’s like Greeks demanding an apology for being called Greek. actually greeks wouldnot ask for an apology for being called greeks because they want to be called greeks and they are called greeks. :-)) though you can see that they founded a civilization some thousands years ago in that land but not much work has been done since then except for lying about the neighbors and offering the domestic land to other countries as military base and as free market. once you get into that club of popular kids, your sins will be forgotten as in the example of Greece – but not limited to Greece. Greece haven’t seen any consequences yet for their massacres/cleansing committed on populations in their north, in Thessalonikka, in Crete, in Cyprus, in Western Turkey during the last century. I was reading the related comments, and what struck me that nobody actually fully understands the term “nationality”, including the editors of this text and the related texts on this website. There is no ethnicity “Slav Macedonians” so nobody can use the term. For the citizens of Republic of Macedonia the term of Macedonians is registered in the list of nations in the UN. Regarding the ethnicity “Macedonian”, anybody can adopt and declare to be of any ethnicity but nobody is allowed to call him any other name, especially if there is no other group that has been declaring by the same ethnicity. A part of the Greek population belonging to the Greek ethnicity only try to add a second ethnicity to their belonging even there is no prior history record of them declaring as such, and certainly nobody can have two ethnicity identities. The ethno-genesis should be left to the people who are experts in the field! And anybody is free to adopt a view of its origins…some believe to be created in 7 days, some evolving from a single cell, some that Macedonians originate from Bulgarians, some from the bloodlines of the Antic Macedonian tribes…But let not mix the facts and beliefs! I’m a Macedonian, speak a Macedonian language, and believe that the ethnic group that I belong to – the Macedonian has its roots within the people living on these lands for more than 25 centuries, but mainly the Antic Macedonians. Thanks! Someday they will understand our history and they will see that Greece is wrong about Macedonia. It just need time for those things. Macedonian people were fighting within centuries to get their freedom and this is just another battle to get our right to be called like we Macedonians want. The problem is that if they accept formally our existence, they will have to return the property to the people they have banished from their territory a half of century ago. This could be possible, provided that FYROM shall return the property to the hundreds of thousands of Greeks who lived for centuries in the places there (in Bitola, Krousevo etc) and were forced to leave these places through all the past decades! The former Yugoslav republic is an an example of politcal correctness gone crazy. Their apologists…including some that claim to support “human rights”…. have been revealed as bigots now that they dishonestly pretend not to notice their suddenly identity quick change into ‘descendents of ancient Macedonians”. (to hide their shame for supporting them) “The creation of the Macedonian nation, for almost half of a century, was done in a condition of single-party dictatorship. In those times, there was no difference between science and ideology, so the “Macedonian” historiography, unopposed by anybody, comfortably performed a selection of the historic material from which the “Macedonian” identity was created. There is nothing atypical here for the process of the creation of any modern nation, except when falsification from the type of substitution of the word “Bulgarian” with the word “Macedonian” were made.” (Denko Maleski, former Minister of foreign affairs of FYROM from 1991 to 1993 in an interview to FYROM newspaper Utrinski Vesnik) “We are Slavs who came to this area in the sixth century … We are not descendants of the ancient Macedonians” – Kiro Gligorov, FYROM’s first President “This (US) Government considers talk of Macedonian “nation”, Macedonian “Fatherland”, or Macedonia “national consciousness” to be unjustified demagoguery representing no ethnic nor political reality, and sees in its present revival a possible cloak for aggressive intentions against Greece” – US State Department Dec, 1944 (Foreign Relations Vol. VIII Washington D.C. Circular Airgram – 868.014/26) ‘The idea that Alexander the Great belongs to us was at the mind of some outsider groups only. These groups were insignificant in the first years of our independence. But the big problem is that the old Balkan nations have been learned to legitimize themselves through their history. In the Balkans to be recognized as a nation you need to have history of 2,000 to 3,000 years old. Since you (Greece ) forced us to invent a history, we did invent it.’ (FYROM Foreign Minister Denko Maleski – 1991 to 1993) The truth is that FYROMians are Slavs inhabiting the northern part of the region of Macedonia and not the actual Macedonia which is the Greek province of Macedonia, like it or not. It’s just under recent heavy brainwashing from their nationalistic government (VMRO-DPMNE) that they want to be Macedonians and nothing but Macedonians and don’t give a s**t about their southern neighbours, real Macedonians, ethnic Greeks. Stefan Verkovich: If someone today should ask the Macedonian Slav “what are you?” he would be immediately be told: “I am Bulgarian” and would call his language “Bulgarian”. (“Folk Songs of the Macedonian Bulgarian”, Vol. 1, 1860) Krste Misirkov, Bulgarian philologist and publicist, considered a national hero in FYROM: Some will ask why I speak of breaking away from the Bulgarians when in the past we have even called ourselves Bulgarians and when it is generally accepted that unification creates strength, and not separation.(“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) And, anyway, what sort of new Macedonian nation can this be when we and our fathers and grandfathers and great-grandfathers have always been called Bulgarians?(“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) We are more Bulgarian than those in Bulgaria. (“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) We speak a Bulgarian language. (“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) Edith Durham, British writer, artist and traveller: I have even met people who believe there is a special race which they call ‘Macedonian’, whose ’cause’ they wish to aid. The truth is, that in a district which has no official frontiers, and never has had any stable ones, there are people of six races, who, as we have seen, all have causes to be considered […] I shall speak only of the part I have stayed in- the districts of Lakes Ochrida and Prespa. Here there are Greeks, Slavs, Albanians, and Vlahs. Of Turks, except officials and such of the army as may be quartered on the spot, there are few. The Albanians, I believe, are all Moslem. Should there be any Christians they would be officially classed as Greeks. A large part of the land near Lake Prespa is owned by Moslem Albanians as “chiftliks” (farms). (“The Burden of the Balkans”, 1905, p. 76) Ferdinand Schevill, American professor of history: Although in some areas (of geographical Macedonia) the various groups were all inextricably intermingled, it is pertinent to point out that in other sections a given race decidedly predominated. In the southern districts, for instance, and more particularly along the coast, the Greeks, a city people given to trade, had the upper hand, while to the north of them the Slavs, peasants for the most part working the soil, held sway. These Slavs may properly be considered as a special “Macedonian” group, but since they were closely related to both Bulgars and Serbs and had, moreover, in the past been usually incorporated in either the Bulgar or Serb state, they inevitably became the object of both Bulgar and Serb aspirations and an apple of discord between these rival nationalities. As an oppressed people on an exceedingly primitive level, the Macedonian Slavs had as late as the congress of Berlin exhibited no perceptible national consciousness of their own. It was therefore impossible to foretell in what direction they would lean when their awakening came; in fact, so indeterminate was the situation that under favourable circumstances they might even develop their own particular Macedonian consciousness. (“History of the Balkans”: From the Earliest Times to the Present Day, 1922, reprint 1991) Gyordan Veselinov, FYROMian ambassador in Canada: We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian… There is some confusion about the identity of the people of my country. (Ottawa Citizen, 24 February 1999) Some food for those who needed: Gobineau, Arthur. “Histoire Des Perses D’apre?s Les Auteurs Orientaux Grecs Et Latins: Et Particulierement D’apre?s Les Manuscrits Orientaux Ine?dits, Les Monuments Figures, Les Medailles, Les Pierres Gravees, etc.” Volume 2, Paris: H. Plon, 1869. p. 359. “The Macedonians were NOT Greeks. Neither by race, nor customs, or by characteristics. Their rulers did not have anything Hellenic. Their history was similar to that of the Illyrian, Thracian and Paeonian populations, with whom they bordered, but not with the history of the Hellenic city-states.” Early Greek government did NOT include Macedonia within her boundaries – 1828 Ioannis Kapodistrias, Greece’s first head of state, had fewer doubts about the northern limits of the Greeks. In his reply to the question of Greece’s three Protecting Powers in 1828 about a ‘defensible frontier’ for the new state, he proposed the river Aoos-Metsovon-Mt Olympus as a ‘natural’ demarcation line and explained: ‘In ancient times this boundary also seperated Greece from its northern neighbours.’ Kapodistrias knowledge of historical geography was that of the educated Greek of his time. 3.This should be taken as a constant reminder to all of the greek war mongers and haters of Republic of acedonia: In 1925 the Chief of Staff of the Tenth Army Division of Western Macedonia, Salvanos wrote a study of Florina’s ethnological composition and the possibility of resettling refugees there (HAM/DGM, File No 108 (“Reports of the third Army Division”) report entitled, “Study of the Ethnological Composition of the Division’s Area and the Possible Settlement of Refugees There,“ Salvanos, 9 April 1925. He wrote that only a small minority of the population had a pure Greek consciousness. He described the Slavophone population as being divided among 3 groups: (1) those with a fanatic Greek morale (Ellinofrones) (2) those with a fanatic Bulgarian morale (Voulgharofrones) and (3) those who were indifferent to nationality. The last group, the ones who were indifferent to nationality, he said called themselves Makedhones (Macedonians) and comprises the bulk of the Florina’s region population making up one-half to three-quarters of any given village’s population. The Bulgarian fanatics comprise one-quarter to one-half of a village’s population, while the Greek fanatics are widely but thinly dispersed throughout the region, being represented in each village by one to five families. Salvanos recommended that the state focus on these “indifferent to nationality population” and take advantage of their “indifferent psychic leanings”. What is interesting for our debate is the fact that in spite of the competing propagandas waged by Greeks and Bulgarians, the majority of the Florina region’s population identify itself as Macedonians (“Makedhones”). Another study by Historical Archives of Macedonia (HAM) General Directorate of Macedonia (GDM) we find that “There were no monolingual Greek speakers among the Florina population during the period 1911-1915.” These, according to official Greek government archives, were the political and linguistic realities that the Greek state faced when it assumed control over the Florina region in 1913. My thanks to Gandeto “Neither were the locals Bulgarian nor was their language Bulgarian. They were just Macedonians.” R.A. Reiss, Rapport sur la situation des Boulgarophones et des Musulmans dans les nouvelles provinces Grecques (Lausanne, 1915). Thanks Gandeto Quote: Karl Hron (Austrian, publicist, 1890): It may be shown, from their history as well as from their language, that the Macedonians are neither Serbs nor Bulgarians, but rather a separate ethnic group…. “Dus Volkstum Der Slaven Makedoniens” My best wishes to a great man. Thank you again Gandeto Just a short reply for the The Cincinnatian….to present him with some facts… Yes some people have different oppinions, as I stated, but do not mix believes with facts. If all of the people in the world think that The Macedonian language is a Greek language, why there are 45 departments of the Macedonian language on many famous universities in the world, which consist of many thousands of PhD professors? And why the Greek state published this Abecedar in 1925, but just remember…The Greek State!!! For some more read, and I wish to thank him ….Neil Johnson, above! And in order to clarify why the Greeks want to have as theirs (e.g. Alexander The Macedonian) their biggest enemy in the history, read the classics history books and you’ll find out…without him You’re worth less than a tin coin! On the other hand, trough history, we the Macedonians have always maintained our moral high grounds and always kept our hands clean! The last example was the end of the WW2 when after helping the Greeks to kick out the Germans our brothers in Greece destroyed 1000 Macedonian villages, killed more than 200000 Macedonians and banished to exile (never to return) 20000 children…..Thanks, I know who the Greeks are, and who are the Macedonians! Recently some details have emerged that will show that the Greek state was involved in financing the NLA (The albanian terorist-paramillitary army in Macedonia) in order to further their efforts of destruction of Macedonians…this will further my facts about the Greeks in general, if the rise of neo-nacizam in Greece does not! OMG, now they are embarrassed for what they are? Like as appropriating someone else’s name and history wasn’t enough to humiliate themselves! And this Aivo Orav guy? How stupid of him having to apologise for call then what they are! Since when the word “Slav” is an insult anyway?? What do you expect from an EU official? most don’t know their arse from their elbow in the field in which they represent the EU. Bunch of incompetents all of them, MEP’s, EC’s, the lot. To Marta from Poland (????) I smell Greek behind that post, and to that grkoman from Cincinnati. (Yes, I know that stanch) If people of Republic of Macedonia are identified with the prefix “slavs” then it begs the question: why is it that all other Slavic nations do not use that same prefix for themselves? Why is it a precondition for the people of Macedonia? Second, if ancient Macs were Greeks (wishful thinking, ofcourse) then we must ask: why did Alexander the Great dismissed his supposedly own Greek troops in Asia? Why he did not use them in any of his major battles? Next, why did Greeks ask of the macedonians to evaquate from Greece? Why were the Greeks liberated by the Romans when the Romans defeated the Macedonians? There a are numerous gaps in your debunked, unsustainable thesis. Greeks had nothing in common with the Macedonians. 19 cent. Greeks knew that, wrote about it and considered the Macs as their conquerors. But what the heck, who believes the Greeks these days anyway. Corrupt and stucked in the middle ages they have nothing worth discussing. TThe theft of a King by Gandeto is an excellent source ffor all concerned in the truth. My suggestion is go out and buy it. @Angela Discouri Q1: “If people of Republic of Macedonia are identified with the prefix “slavs” then it begs the question: why is it that all other Slavic nations do not use that same prefix for themselves? Why is it a precondition for the people of Macedonia?” A1: Because other Slavs don’t have to disambiguate from real Macedonians, but you have to. There are 3,000,000 real Macedonians, ethnic Greeks, in real Macedonia, Greece, you know… Q2: “if ancient Macs were Greeks (wishful thinking, ofcourse) then we must ask: why did Alexander the Great dismissed his supposedly own Greek troops in Asia? Why he did not use them in any of his major battles?” A2: Alexander I of Macedon, king of Macedon from 498 BCE to 454 BCE: Men of Athens. In truth I would not tell it to you if I did not care so much for all Greece; I myself am by ancient descent a Greek, and I would not willingly see Greece change her freedom for slavery. (From the speech of Alexander I of Macedon when he was admitted to the Olympic games, Herodotus, “Histories”, 9.45) Alexander the Great, king of Macedon, 356 BCE – 323 BCE: Your ancestors came to Macedonia and the rest of Greece and did us great harm, though we had done them no prior injury. I have been appointed leader of the Greeks, and wanting to punish the Persians I have come to Asia, which I took from you. (Alexander’s letter to Persian king Darius in response to a truce plea, as quoted in “Anabasis Alexandri” by Roman historian Arrian, Book II, 14, 4) Youths of the Pellaians and of the Macedonians and of the Greek Amphictiony and of the Lakedaimonians and of the Corinthians… and of all the Greek peoples, join your fellow-soldiers and entrust yourselves to me, so that we can move against the barbarians and liberate ourselves from the Persian bondage, for as Greeks we should not be slaves to barbarians. (Kallisthenes, “Historia Alexandri Magni”, 1.15.1-4) Q3: “Why were the Greeks liberated by the Romans when the Romans defeated the Macedonians?” A3: What are you talking about??? “Greeks had nothing in common with the Macedonians.” Oh, really? George Cawkwell, Emeritus Fellow, University College, Oxford: The Macedonians were Greeks. (“Philip of Macedon”, Faber & Faber, London, p.22) R. M. Cook, British archaeologist: Macedonia and Epirus were the buffers of Greece in Europe. (“The Greeks until Alexander”, 1962, p. 23) Victor Ehrenberg, German historian: Alexander and the Macedonians carried Greek civilization into the East. (“The Greek State”, Methuen, July 2000, p.139) Robin Lane Fox, English academic and historian: To a Persian’s ancestors, Macedonians were only known as ‘Yona takabara’, the ‘Greeks who wear shields on their heads’, an allusion to their broad-brimmed hats. (“Alexander the Great”, p.104) Ian Worthington, English historian and archaeologist: Not much need to be said about the Greekness of ancient Macedonia: it is undeniable. (“Philip II of Macedonia”, Yale University Press, 2008) David H. Levinson: It should be noted that there is no connection between the Macedonians of the time of Alexander the Great who were related to other Hellenic tribes and the Macedonians of today, who are of Slavic Origin and related to the Bulgarians. (“Encyclopedia of World Cultures”) You dear quote Gandeto, aka Josif Grezlovski, a FYROMian, a quote you international scholars and ancient Macedonians. You suck, go read a book not punlished in FYROM… @Angela Discouri I don’t know much of history, but at least I’m not embarrassed being a Slav. @Angela Discouri Just noticed, you have your answers by Alexander. \U0001f642 Grow up my dear Slavmacedonians, the world is laughing at you… “FYROM was also an attempt at a multicultural society. Here the fragments are just about holding together, although the cement that binds them is an unreliable mixture of propaganda and myth. The ‘Macedonian’ language has been created, some rather misty history involving Tsar Samuel, probably a Bulgarian, and Alexander the Great, almost certainly a Greek, has been invented, and the name Macedonia has been adopted. Do we destroy these myths or live with them? Apparently these radical Slavic factions decided to live with their myths and lies for the constant amusement of the rest of the world!” (T.J. Winnifrith, “Shattered Eagles, Balkan Fragments”, Duckworth) I am sorry to see that there are people who still count on GANDETOS’s lies. This person is a proven text forger with all of his books being real crap as he isolates, hides or partly reveals truth! Actually GANDETO reuses the Bulgarian texts of the past century. To say that today even the Bulgarians have abandoned them. So he uses this Gobineau as a proof to his sayings. Gobineau, 1869! Very recent! Only that a few years later G Hadjidakis published in 1895 his work: “about the Greek identity of the ancient Macedonians “which still remains sound and valid! Ancient Macedonians were Greeks: .(a) All of the thousands of their inscriptions dated before the Roman occupation, found in Macedonia are ALL in Greek. There is not even a single inscription found in Macedonia, which was not written in Greek. .(b) The vast majority of their names (of men and women) are Greek names. Those few that cannot be identified as Greek, cannot be identified as non-Greek either. (Nobody can say that they are of Illyrian or Dardanian or whatever the origin). .(c) They shared the same religion with the rest of the Greeks. .(d) Their traditions and their cultural aspects (e.g. the names of their months) were Greek. .(e) They participated in the ancient Olympic Games. Everybody knows that only Greeks could participate in the ancient Olympics at that time. That means that they considered themselves as Greeks and also that the rest of the Greeks considered them as Greeks too. .(f) Their language was Greek too. The Pella Curse and the Aiani inscriptions triumphantly prove it. As even simple people were speaking Greek well before 400 BC it is impossible that they were ever linguistically Hellinized. All of the above show the ancient Macedonians’ Greek identity and count much more than personal opinions i.e. like those of Demosthenes. Regarding Kapodistrias and Greece’s borders. It depends on the sources. Strabo for example considers Macedonia as part of Greece while in another part of his writings he excludes it. However he mentions in a third part that Macedonians are people, same as the Epirotes (Strabo 7.7.8) and of course there is no dispute that the Epirotes were not Greeks. Polybius also mentions that the delegate of the Macedonians, speaking before the Spartans, calls Macedonians, Spartans and the Achaeans as people of the same race. There is no report about any Spartan reaction about this which means in turn that even Spartans considered Macedonians to be Greeks. (Polybius 9.37). But GANDETO speaks for the opposite! Whom should we trust? Gandeto? lol! I don’t know Salvanos’ report but the word “indifferent” is the key word. There are Greeks, Bulgarians and others who are ethnically indifferent; however they are all people from the same place, Macedonia, so they are all Macedonians. As such, all of them, (Greek, Bulgarian and “indifferent” people) call themselves Macedonians. This means clearly that the term does not have any national but simply geographical meaning. Not difficult for one to realize this, athough this depends however on the propaganda degree! Karl Hron (Austrian, publicist, 1890). Very recent too! First of all he is a publicist; neither a historian, nor an ethnologist, so his sayings are of little value (like Gandeto’s sayings). Then everybody knows that Austria-Hungary of that time had interests on the area and promoted the idea of a country-protectorate. As anyone can realize, scientific research and not political interests do make History. Gandeto in despair! @Angela Discouri I don’t know much of history, but at least I’m not embarrassed being a Slav. Nice statement! That’s why Slavs are nice people! The cincinnatian strikes again at the non-Macedonian, anti-Macedonian South Slavonian Slavs who were subjected to an intense and painful “Macedonization” or “Jenissarization” process which has created the modern pseudo-Macedonian jenissaries to promote and fight forthe fraud and forgery that the South Slavonian Slavs have in some miraculous and incomprehensible way evolved to be the modern pseudo-Macedonians because they have assigned themselves the same Macedonian name that the Greek people of the northern province of ancient Macedonia have had for more than two and a half millennia and, consequently, the South Slavonian Slavs of fyrom would not just like to share that name with us, the Macedonian Greek people but establish a monopoly on that fraudulent identity name if possible by disputing or denying our Macedonian Hellenism and forging that Macedonian Greek name to themselves but without its Greekness. The painful truth regarding those people is that they did not only “Macedonize” or “jenissarize” themselves but also the twenty or so thousand of Macedonian Greek children they abducted from their parents during the so-called civil war and they are using them now like the Ottoman Turks did many years ago to fight against their own Greek people who gave birth to them. Then, they have the audacity to say that the Greeks did some bad things to them, actually, to their old Bulgarian comrades who had entered northern Greece and did all kinds of atrocities to “Bulgarize” the Macedonian Greek population and change, if possible, the demographic composition of the Macedonian Greek people when they were under Ottoman Occupation and the Bulgarian invaders were ravaging the contryside. As I have before the Macedonian Greek people did not accept a Bulgarian identity so, the South Slavonian Slavs created or invented a better way to get the Macedonian Greek people to identify with themselves and, hence, they called themselves “Macedonians”, that is, pseudo-Macedonians so that they can mislead and confuse the peasants to think of themselves as being the same people since thet both were using the same Macedonian name. However, we have come to a point where if I say to a Macedonian Greek or just to any Greek person that I am a Macedonian, like the Cretans say they Cretans, etc. I will be confused as a possible citizen of the pseudo-Macedonia or FYROM and I need to explain myself that I am not what that name has come to mean and for obvious reasons. As I said before and I would like to repeat again only paranoid, insane and schisophrenic people would dare say that they are “Macedonians” or pseudo-Macedonians because the Macedonian adcective does not and cannot be used to identify two different kinds of people with the same name as one of them is not what that name stands for and the Macedonian adjective stands and it always has done so, Greek people and not ever Slavic people of any kind or land. Somebody said to me why are there 45 university departments that promote the “Macedonian” language. I Say that happens for the same fraudulent reason as the 120, they say, countries that recognize The country of South Slavonia with the fraudulent name of “Macedonia”. Politicians and even Universty professors are not so sensitive to historical truth and justice and they chose political or economic interests which are of immediate concern to them. Money talks and it does so more in politics than anything else. I also want to say that just like in the case of Jesus when he was brought to Pontius Pilate, He was crucified because the people of Barabbas yelled louder than those of Jesus Christ. I could go on but I am going to stop right here and ask the South Slavonian Slavs to tell me and the audience what is it that makes them “Macedonians”, pseudo-Macedonians, that is, how did they get to become so, when did they do so and why. I would like to hear some intelligent answers and I promise that I will put those answers in gold frame studded with diamonds. There is one and only Macedonia and that is the northern province of Greece and one and only one Macedonian people and that is the Macedonian Greek people and everybody else is an impostor. N.M.H. Eugene N. Borza, American historian, is regarded an expert on the Macedonia subject: Modern Slavs, both Bulgarians and “Macedonians”, cannot establish a link with antiquity, as the Slavs entered the Balkans centuries after the demise of the ancient Macedonian kingdom. Only the most radical Slavic factions—mostly émigrés in the United States, Canada, and Australia—even attempt to establish a connection to antiquity. The twentieth-century development of a “Macedonian” ethnicity, and its recent evolution into independent statehood following the collapse of the Yugoslav state in 1991, has followed a rocky road. In order to survive the vicissitudes of Balkan history and politics, the “Macedonians”, who have had no history, need one. They reside in a territory once part of a famous ancient kingdom, which has borne the Macedonian name as a region ever since and was called ”Macedonia” for nearly half a century as part of Yugoslavia. And they speak a language now recognized by most linguists outside Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece as a south Slavic language separate from Slovenian, Serbo-Croatian, and Bulgarian. Their own so-called “Macedonian” ethnicity had evolved for more than a century, and thus it seemed natural and appropriate for them to call the new nation “Macedonia” and to attempt to provide some cultural references to bolster ethnic survival. (“Macedonia Redux”, in “The Eye Expanded: life and the arts in Greco-Roman Antiquity”, ed. Frances B Tichener & Richard F. Moorton, University of California Press, 1999) Not only they refuse they are Slavs, but now they claim Achilles was a FYROMina!!! HAHAHHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!! Yes….ha ha ha indeed! But I like to move things slower! So lets read some more about how the Macedonian identity was created after 1991, while the Greek state published this Abecedar in 1925, but just remember…the administration The Greek State, based on scientific and empiric evidence of Greek scientists!!! so let us see some comparison to the Bulgarian or the Serb language, so we can all see that this is a separate language…and afterwards we will give a name to this “imaginary” language that has been recognized as Macedonian! Second will be to provide a record where any Greek citizen belonging to the Greek nationality has declared themselves as Macedonians outside the Greek state borders, prior to 1991. the original page = Here is one link to Ellis Island (immigration center for entry in USA) where a ship Matala, Janos Nov 24, 1903 sailing from Bremen has entries that are a clear proof of the persons identity, place of origin, and by their names clearly is visible that they belong to the group of people that call themselves Macedonians, as from republic of Macedonia today, and their names have no resemblance to the Greek names, except of a few that have in their fathers names, that have obviously been forced to record their names transcripted to Greek ones. This is an impartial record of an administrative kind which is a historical FACT, and no fachist or neo-nzzi can change! So what now dear neighbors from “the cradle of democracy”, what is your reply?! It’s all about freedom. As every free human being, we are the ones to say what’s our name. Otherwise, we are not free. It is a shame that we have to prove anything to anyone, but this is a crazy world. @ Miro Sekula: Edith Durham, British writer, artist and traveller: I have even met people who believe there is a special race which they call ‘Macedonian’, whose ’cause’ they wish to aid. The truth is, that in a district which has no official frontiers, and never has had any stable ones, there are people of six races, who, as we have seen, all have causes to be considered […] I shall speak only of the part I have stayed in- the districts of Lakes Ochrida and Prespa. Here there are Greeks, Slavs, Albanians, and Vlahs. Of Turks, except officials and such of the army as may be quartered on the spot, there are few. The Albanians, I believe, are all Moslem. Should there be any Christians they would be officially classed as Greeks. A large part of the land near Lake Prespa is owned by Moslem Albanians as “chiftliks” (farms). (“The Burden of the Balkans”, 1905, p. 76) Loring Danforth, American professor of anthropology: Finally, Krste Misirkov, who had clearly developed a strong sense of his own personal national identity as a Macedonian and who outspokenly and unambiguously called for Macedonian linguistic and national separatism, acknowledged that a ‘Macedonian’ national identity was a relatively recent historical development. (“The Macedonian Conflict: Ethnic Nationalism in a Transnational World”, Princeton Univ. Press, December 1995, p.63) The political and military leaders of the Slavs of Macedonia at the turn of the century seem not to have heard Misirkov’s call for a separate Macedonian national identity; they continued to identify themselves in a national sense as Bulgarians rather than Macedonians. (“The Macedonian Conflict: Ethnic Nationalism in a Transnational World”, Princeton Univ. Press, December 1995, p.64) Abecedar: The book was initially published for the Slavic speakers of Greek Macedonia and it was a school book first published in Athens, Greece in 1925. The book became the subject of controversy with Bulgaria and Serbia when cited by Greece as proof it had fulfilled its international obligations towards Slavic-speaking minority, because it had been printed in the Latin alphabet rather than Cyrillic used by the Slavic languages of the southern Balkans. Anything new that we don’t know? to Goran: No Goran, it’s about respect of other people name, history, culture and identity. But then again, I forgot, you FYROMians are special kind of people, the greatest of all! You are the blessed “Macedonoids”, the progenitors of the White race! Here is your “Macedonian prayer” on wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonian_Prayer_%28video%29 Do read the English translation on the bottom of the page and then laugh at yourselves. Indeed Goran, it’s a crazy world you live in. First of all, you cannot sustain a discussion without trying to be offensive, but that’s just speaks about yourself. We have respect for everyone. Even despite all your hostile acts (closing border, EU/NATO vetoing and who knows what), we are still talking with you in hope to “ease” your pain. This issue has nothing to do with history, it’s all about force. You are using your superior position to blackmail us. @ Miro Sekula Abecedar was issued after the Bulgarian insistence that forced Greece to issue this, as well as to recognize (sillily from the side of Greece) the people of the Greek area of Macedonia as Bulgarian minority, however the Greek parliament rejected the recognition proposal for the Slavophones as a Bulgarian minority. As you realize from the above, the Abecedar does not make any proof about any “Macedonian” minority or ethnicity! I cannot open the second link but it is well known that the US immigration authorities considered those who named themselves as Macedonians to be Bulgarians! Again no proof that a “Macedonian” ethnicity ever existed prior to Tito’s time. @ Dimitri From Athens & @ Alexander So now we know a little more…..why the Bulgarians and the Serbs didn’t object to the second edition of the Abecedar issued in Greece in 2006?, and how come that half of the words in the abecedar are not in the serb and bulgarian dictionaries, but only in the macedonian ones? And it is false to claim that a group of people natively speaking a certain language, in this case Macedonian, can not be used as a basis or proof of a separate minority or ethnicity, in a case where the same group claims to be separate and asks and fights the Greek government to be given their minority rights as in the universal bill of human rights of the UN. Besides that all the international organisations have reported about the violation of the basic minority rights of the macedonian and other minorities in Greece….or is this new to you as well. And not only that, but you add an even more stupid claim, that the USA immigration officers considered “those who named themselves as Macedonians to be Bulgarians!” Hahahaha, now you know what they “considered” 110 years ago! But sure you can give us some proof of that…or you can’t because Strabo didn’t write on the subject, sure! Maybe is new to you that the the Badinter commission in 1993 clearly stated that the Republic of Macedonia and the macedonians have the right to use the term and adjective Macedonia & macedonian, and that by doing it there are no territorial or iredentic implications to its neighbors? In the international archives there are 1470000000 entries about Macedonian (From the Rapublic of Macedonia) literature, art, science and many other areas that prove our existence and rights. 45 Universities all around the word study macedonian language and literature! New?? Or is it new to You that Greece has accepted our provisional UN name “The former Yougoslav Republic of Macedonia”….and what does it say???? Please comment jyst a bit..let us all laugh? It describes a “Republic of Macedonia” as former part of yougoslavia, but it only describes…..it does not imply that we do not have the right to use the terms, or does it??? Please tell us something we do not know>>.you didnt accept it??!!! Or maybe it is new to you thet the ICJ by the UN in the latest decision in 2012 regarding the use of the terms Macedonian and Macedonia stated that the Republic of Macedonia is not in violation of any international law or obligation? Is this new too? If it is you should reed something from time to time, not only copy-pasting somebody elses answers!!! All thee ICJ verdict showed is there is very real racism against Greeks. An objective viewer who was paying attention would notice FYROM’s sudden change in identity into “ancient Macedonians” these last few years (and irredentism). Anyone that apologizes for FYROM now is evil. They are effectively colluding in FYROM’s attempts to erase the identity of Greeks (to hide their shame for supporting them) Demosthenes was a prominent Greek statesman and orator of ancient Athens. His orations constitute a significant expression of contemporary Athenian intellectual prowess and provide an insight into the politics and culture of ancient Greece during the 4th century BC. For a time, Demosthenes made his living as a professional speech-writer (logographer) and a lawyer, writing speeches for use in private legal suits. Demosthenes grew interested in politics during his time as a logographer, and in 354 BC he gave his first public political speeches. He went on to devote his most productive years to opposing Macedon’s expansion. He idealized his city and strove throughout his life to restore Athens’ supremacy and motivate his compatriots against Philip II of Macedon. He sought to preserve his city’s freedom and to establish an alliance against Macedon, in an unsuccessful attempt to impede Philip’s plans to expand his influence southwards by conquering all the other Greek states. After Philip’s death, Demosthenes played a leading part in his city’s uprising against the new King of Macedonia, Alexander the Great. However, his efforts failed and the revolt was met with a harsh Macedonian reaction. To prevent a similar revolt against his own rule, Alexander’s successor in this region, Antipater, sent his men to track Demosthenes down. Demosthenes took his own life, in order to avoid being arrested by Archias, Antipater’s confidant. The Macedonia defeated Greece at the battle of Chaeronea in August 338 BC. This battle had established Macedonian hegemony over Greece and this date is commonly taken as the end of Greek history and the beginning of the Macedonian era. Greece did not regain its independence until 1827 AD. Greek propagandists claim that ancient Macedonia was Greek. Why then, would the Holy Bible distinguish between the two? Greek propagandists claim that ancient Macedonia was Greek. Why then, would the Holy Bible distinguish between the two? Acts 16:9 And a vision appeared to Apostle Paul in the night: There stood a man of Macedonia, and prayed him, saying, Come over into Macedonia, and help us. – The latest scientific research on the origin of Mediterranean peoples between them and the Macedonian people, which was made by the world renowned institutes for Genetic Engineering from Madrid (Spain), concluded that the majority people who live in the territory of the Republic of Macedonia has always lived in this territory, and settled out from nowhere. Genetics Institute of Madrid considered Macedonians as rarely ethnic genesis in Europe is endemic. You can see this research on this link: – please put attention to page 8 about results discussion. @ Amita You should open a book not published in FYROM!… Demosthenes harboured a personal grudge against Philip because of the humiliation he suffered when he lost his power of speech at the Macedonian court (Aischines, On the Embassy 35). Demosthenes called anyone he did not like a barbarian, including fellow Athenians (e.g. 21.150). The word, at least in some uses by Demosthenes and others, should be understood as a generic insult. Thus, for example, in some parts of the USA people are dubious that people from other parts are “real Americans”. Modern historians experts on Macedon clearly revealed the Demosthenean corpus as simply a form of political rhetoric designed to formulate public policy (Eugene Borza, “In The Shadow of Olympus”, Princeton University Press, 1992, ISBN 0691008809, pp. 5-6.) or as just an insulting speech (Nicholas Hammond, “The Miracle that was Macedonia”, St. Martin’s Press, 1991, ISBN 0283999101). The battle of Chaeronea was one of the many Greek civil wars, resulted in the unification of the Greeks. Diodorus Siculus: Every seat in the theatre was taken when Philip appeared wearing a white cloak and by his express orders his bodyguard held away from him and followed only at a distance, since he wanted to show publicly that he was protected by the goodwill of all the Greeks, and had no need of a guard of spearmen. (“Library”, 16.93.1) Richard A. Gabriel, U.S. historian: Philip II of Macedonia, father of Alexander the Great, unifier of Greece, author of Greece’s first federal constitution, founder of the first territorial state with a centralized administrative structure in Europe, forger of the first Western national army, the first great general of the Greek imperial age, and dreamer of great dreams, was one of the greatest captains in the history of the West. (“Great Captains of Antiquity”, p. 84) Vilho Harle, Finish professor of International Relations: The idea of the city-state was first challenged by the ideal of pan-Hellenic unity supported by some writers and orators, among which the Athenian Isocrates became a leading proponent with his Panegyrics of 380 suggesting a Greek holy war against Persia. However, only the rise of Macedonia made the realization of pan-Hellenic unity possible. (“Ideas of Social Order in the Ancient World”, 1998) @ Amita Alexander I of Macedon, king of Macedon from 498 BCE to 454 BCE: Tell your king (Xerxes), who sent you, how his Greek viceroy of Macedonia has received you hospitably. (Herodotus, “Histories”, 5.20.4, Loeb) Men of Athens… In truth I would not tell it to you if I did not care so much for all Greece; I myself am by ancient descent a Greek, and I would not willingly see Greece change her freedom for slavery. I tell you, then, that Mardonius and his army cannot get omens to his liking from the sacrifices. Otherwise you would have fought long before this. Now, however, it is his purpose to pay no heed to the sacrifices, and to attack at the first glimmer of dawn, for he fears, as I surmise that your numbers will become still greater. Therefore, I urge you to prepare, and if (as may be) Mardonius should delay and not attack, wait patiently where you are; for he has but a few days’ provisions left. If, however, this war ends as you wish, then must you take thought how to save me too from slavery, who have done so desperate a deed as this for the sake of Greece in my desire to declare to you Mardonius’ intent so that the barbarians may not attack you suddenly before you yet expect them. I who speak am Alexander the Macedonian. (From the speech of Alexander I of Macedon when he was admitted to the Olympic games, Herodotus, “Histories”, 9.45) Alexander the Great, king of Macedon, 356 BCE – 323 BCE: Your ancestors came to Macedonia and the rest of Greece and did us great harm, though we had done them no prior injury. I have been appointed leader of the Greeks, and wanting to punish the Persians I have come to Asia, which I took from you… (Alexander’s letter to Persian king Darius in response to a truce plea, as quoted in “Anabasis Alexandri” by Roman historian Arrian, Book II, 14, 4) Holy shadows of the dead, I’m not to blame for your cruel and bitter fate, but the accursed rivalry which brought sister nations and brother people, to fight one another. I do not feel happy for this victory of mine. On the contrary, I would be glad, brothers, if I had all of you standing here next to me, since we are united by the same language, the same blood and the same visions. (Addressing the dead Greeks of the Battle of Chaeronea, as quoted in “Historiae Alexandri Magni”, 6.3.11, by Roman historian Quintus Curtius Rufus.) If it were not my purpose to combine foreign things with things Greek, to traverse and civilize every continent, to search out the uttermost parts of land and sea, to push the bounds of Macedonia to the farthest Ocean, and to disseminate and shower the blessings of Greek justice and peace over every nation, I should not be content to sit quietly in the luxury of idle power, but I should emulate the frugality of Diogenes. But as things are, forgive me, Diogenes, that I imitate Heracles, and emulate Perseus, bands follow in the footsteps of Dionysus, the divine author and progenitor of my family, and desire that victorious Greeks should dance again in India and revive the memory of the Bacchic revels among the savage mountain tribes beyond the Caucasus. (Plutarch, “Moralia: On the Fortune of Alexander”, I, 332a-b) Youths of the Pellaians and of the Macedonians and of the Greek Amphictiony and of the Lakedaimonians and of the Corinthians… and of all the Greek peoples, join your fellow-soldiers and entrust yourselves to me, so that we can move against the barbarians and liberate ourselves from the Persian bondage, for as Greeks we should not be slaves to barbarians. (Pseudo-Kallisthenes, “Historia Alexandri Magni”, 1.15.1-4) Now you fear punishment and beg for your lives, so I will let you free, if not for any other reason so that you can see the difference between a Greek king and a barbarian tyrant, so do not expect to suffer any harm from me. A king does not kill messengers. (Pseudo-Kallisthenes, “Historia Alexandri Magni”, 1.37.9-13) There are Greek troops, to be sure, in Persian service — but how different is their cause from ours! They will be fighting for pay — and not much of at that; we, on the contrary, shall fight for Greece, and our hearts will be in it. (Addressing his troops prior to the Battle of Issus, as quoted in “Anabasis Alexandri” by Roman historian Arrian, Book II, 7) Philip V, King of Macedon, 221 BC – 179 BC: For on many occasions when I and the other Greeks sent embassies to you begging you to remove from your statutes the law empowering you to get booty from booty, you replied that you would rather remove Aetolia from Aetolia than that law (Polybius, “The Histories”, 18.4.8) Aeschines, Greek statesman and one of the ten Attic orators, 389–314 BCE: For at a congress of the Lacedaemonian allies and the other Greeks, in which Amyntas, the father of Philip, being entitled to a seat, was represented by a delegate whose vote was absolutely under his control, he joined the other Greeks in voting to help Athens to recover possession of Amphipolis. As proof of this I presented from the public records the resolution of the Greek congress and the names of those who voted. (“On the Embassy”, 32) Arrian, Roman historian and philosopher, 92-175 CE: To Athens also he sent 300 suits of Persian armour to be hung up in the Acropolis as a votive offering to Athena, and ordered this inscription to be fixed over them, “Alexander, son of Philip and all the Greeks except the Lacedaemonians, present this offering from the spoils taken from the foreigners inhabiting Asia. (Anabasis Alexandri”, I, 16, 7) Diodorus Siculus, Greek historian, born at Agyrium in Sicily, c. 90 BC– c. 30 BCE: Every seat in the theatre was taken when Philip appeared wearing a white cloak and by his express orders his bodyguard held away from him and followed only at a distance, since he wanted to show publicly that he was protected by the goodwill of all the Greeks, and had no need of a guard of spearmen. (“Library”, 16.93.1) Such was the end of Philip (II, king of Macedonia) …He had ruled 24 years. He is known to fame as one who with but the slenderest resources to support his claim to a throne won for himself the greatest empire among the Greeks, while the growth of his position was not due so much to his prowess in arms as to his adroitness and cordiality in diplomacy. (“Library”, 16.95.1-2) Gaius Julius Caesar, Roman military and political leader, 100 or 102 BCE – 44 BCE: Caesar judged that he must drop everything else and pursue Pompey where he had betaken himself after his flight, so that he should not be able to gather more forces and renew, and he advanced daily as far as he could go with the cavalry and ordered a legion to follow shorter stages. An edict had been published in Pompey’s name that all the younger men in the province (Macedonia), both Greeks and Roman citizens, should assemble to take an oath. (“Civil War”, 111.102.3) Flavius Josephus, Jewish historian, 1st-century CE: And when the book of Daniel was showed to him (Alexander the Great) wherein Daniel declared that one of the Greeks should destroy the empire of the Persians, he supposed that himself was the person intended. (“Antiquities of the Jews”, Book 11.8.5) Herodotus, Greek historian, 484 BC-ca. 425 BCE: Now that these descendants of Perdiccas (Perdiccas I of Macedon, king of Macedonia from about 700 BCE to about 678 BCE) are Greeks, as they themselves say, I myself chance to know and will prove it in the later part of my history. (“Histories”, 5.22.1) Alexander (I of Macedon), however, proving himself to be an Argive, was judged to be a Greek. He accordingly competed in the furlong race and tied step for first place. (“Histories”, 5.22.2) From Argos (in Peloponnesus, Greece) fled to the Illyrians three brothers of the descendants of Temenus, Gauanes, Aeropus, and Perdiccas; and passing over from the Illyrians into the upper parts of Macedonia they came to the city of Lebaia. (“Histories”, 8.137-139) Isocrates, Greek rhetorician and one of the ten Attic orators, 436–338 BCE: Therefore, since the others are so lacking in spirit, I think it is opportune for you to head the war against the King; and, while it is only natural for the other descendants of Heracles, and for men who are under the bonds of their polities and laws, to cleave fondly to that state in which they happen to dwell, it is your privilege, as one who has been blessed with untrammelled freedom, to consider all Greece your fatherland, as did the founder of your race, and to be as ready to brave perils for her sake as for the things about which you are personally most concerned. (“To Philip”, 5.127, Loeb) Livy, Roman historian, 59 BCE – CE 17: The Aitolians, the Akarnanians, the Macedonians, men of the same speech, are united or disunited by trivial causes that arise from time to time; with aliens, with barbarians, all Greeks wage and will wage eternal war; for they are enemies by the will of nature, which is eternal, and not from reasons that change from day to day… (“History of Rome”, Book XXXI, 29.15) Plutarch, Greek historian, 46 -127 CE: Yet through Alexander (the Great) Bactria and the Caucasus learned to revere the gods of the Greeks… Alexander established more than seventy cities among savage tribes, and sowed all Asia with Greek magistracies … Egypt would not have its Alexandria, nor Mesopotamia its Seleucia, nor Sogdiana its Prophthasia, nor India its Bucephalia, nor the Caucasus a Greek city, for by the founding of cities in these places savagery was extinguished and the worse element, gaining familiarity with the better, changed under its influence. (“Moralia: On the Fortune of Alexander”, I, 328d, 329a Loeb) And it is said that when he took his seat for the first time under the golden canopy on the royal throne, Demaratus the Corinthian, a well-meaning man and a friend of Alexander’s, as he had been of Alexander’s father, burst into tears, as old men will, and declared that those Greeks were deprived of great pleasure who had died before seeing Alexander seated on the throne of Dareius. (“Parallel Lives: Alexander”, 37.7) Polybius, Greek historian, 203–120 BCE: In the presence of Zeus, Hera, and Apollo: in the presence of the Genius of Carthage, of Heracles, and Iolaus: in the presence of Ares, Triton, and Poseidon: in the presence of the gods who battle for us and the Sun, Moon, and Earth; in the presence of Rivers, Lakes, and Waters: in the presence of all the gods who possess Macedonia and the rest of Greece: in the presence of all the gods of the army who preside over this oath. (“Histories”, VII, 9.2-3, Loeb) How highly should we honour the Macedonians, who for the greater part of their lives never cease from fighting with the barbarians for the sake of the security of Greece? For who is not aware that Greece would have constantly stood in the greater danger, had we not been fenced by the Macedonians and the honourable ambition of their kings? (“Histories”, IX, 35.2, Loeb) Surely it would have been much more dignified and fairer to include Philip’s achievements in the history of Greece than to include the history of Greece in that of Philip. (Statement on Theopompus, “Histories”, VIII, 11.4, Loeb) Quintus Curtius Rufus, Roman historian, 1st century CE: Alexander called a meeting of his generals the next day. He told them that no city was more hateful to the Greeks than Persepolis, the capital of the old kings of Persia; the city from which troops without number had poured forth, from which first Darius and then Xerxes had waged an unholy war on Europe. To appease the spirits of their forefathers they should wipe it out, he said. (Alexander the Great Speaking to his own Macedonian Commanders, “Historiae Alexandri Magni”, 5.6.1) Strabo, Greek historian, geographer and philosopher, 64 BCE – 24 CE: There remain of Europe, first, Macedonia and the part of Thrace that are contiguous to it and extend as far as Byzantium; secondly, Greece; and thirdly, the Islands that are close by. Macedonia, of course, is a part of Greece, yet now, since I am following the nature and shape of the place geographically, I have decided to classify it apart from the rest of Greece and to join it with that part of Thrace… (“Geography”, VII, Frg. 9, Loeb) Three classes inhabited the city (Alexandria in Egypt): first the Egyptian or native stock of people, who were quick-tempered and not inclined to civil life; and secondly the mercenary class, who were severe and numerous and intractable…; and, third, the tribe of the Alexandrians, who also were not distinctly inclined to civil life, and for the same reasons, but still they were better than those others, for even though they were a mixed people, still they were Greeks by origin and mindful of the customs common to the Greeks. (“Geography”, 17.1.12-13) FYROMian archaeologists: Greek epigraphic monuments created before definitive Roman domination of our area are to be found in modest quantity. (Vera Bitrakova Grozdanova, FYROMian archaeologist, “Hellenistic Monuments in S.R.Macedonia”, Skopje, 1987,p. 130) The star of Vergina applies to the 3rd Century BC northern Greece – a very different situation, not related to the 21st Century AD. I think it’s modern politics, and we’re witnessing the use of an archaeological symbol for history that it’s really not related to. (Bajana Mojsov, FYROMian archaeologist, “BBC News, 2004, When archaeology gets bent, BBC World Service, 2004, The World Today programme”) Journalist: What is your opinion for the problem which Greece has to accept the name Macedonia which the Scopje Government (FYROM) is trying to implement? Henry Kissinger: Look, I believe that Greece is right to object and I agree with Athens. The reason is that I know history which is not the case with most of the others including most of the Government and Administration in Washington. The strength of the Greek case is that of the history which I must say that Athens have not used so far with success. (Henry Kissinger, Management Centre Europe, Paris, 19 June 1992) It is historically proven that the Yugoslavian Democracy of Macedonia was created by Stalin, Tito and Dimitrov, aiming at the stealthy removal of a large part of Northern Greece. This Democracy was used during the period 1944-1949 in order to destabilise Greece. (Thomas Niles, US Ambassador, statement on the 23rd June 1992 to the SubCommittee of US Congress, Eleutherotypia newspaper, June 24, 1992) We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are Slavs and our language is closely related to Bulgarian. There is some confusion about our identity. (Gyordan Veselinov, FYROMian ambassador to Canada, Ottawa Citizen, February 24, 1999) The latest scientific research on the origin of Mediterranean peoples between them and the Macedonian people, which was made by the world renowned institutes for Genetic Engineering from Madrid (Spain), concluded that the majority people who live in the territory of the Republic of Macedonia has always lived in this territory, and settled out from nowhere. Genetics Institute of Madrid considered Macedonians as rarely ethnic genesis in Europe is endemic. You can see this research on this link: – please put attention to page 8 about results discussion. @ Aminta: Stop humiliating yourself and start read some real science. FYROMians are Slavs and genetically related to Bulgarians, like it or not… (Rebala K et al. (2007), Y-STR variation among Slavs: evidence for the Slavic homeland in the middle Dnieper basin, Journal of Human Genetics, 52:406-14.) (HLA-DRB and -DQB1 polymorphism in the Macedonian population, Hristova-Dimceva et al., Tissue Antigens, Volume 55, Number 1, January 2000 , pp. 53–56(4), Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell) (Forensic Science International: Genetics, Volume 5, Issue 4, Pages e108-e111, August 2011, Genetic data for 17 Y-chromosomal STR loci in Macedonians in the Republic of Macedonia, Zlatko Jakovski, Ksenija Nikolova, Renata Jankova-Ajanovska, Damir Marjanovic, Naris Pojskic, Biljana Janeska) (Petlichkovski A, Efinska-Mladenovska O, Trajkov D, Arsov T, Strezova A, Spiroski M (2004). “High-resolution typing of HLA-DRB1 locus in the Macedonian population”. Tissue Antigens 64 (4): 486–91. doi:10.1111/j.1399-0039.2004.00273.x. PMID 15361127.) (European Journal of Human Genetics – Y chromosomal heritage of Croatian population and its island isolates.”) @ Miro Sekula Albert Sonnichen, “Our Slavic Citizens”, 1910, pages 274-275: “I hope you are not making any racial distinctions between Bulgarians and Macedonians. I believe the Bulgarians who have come from Macedonia and registered on Ellis Island as Macedonians, which is bound to be confusing and inaccurate, for Macedonians may include Greeks, Vlachs, and even Turks. The distinction between the Bulgarians from Bulgaria and those from Macedonia is purely political.” Cheers! @ Miro Sekula Prpic, George. South Slavic immigration in America, Boston: Twayne, 1978, p. 212-222: “The smallest of the South Slavic ethnic groups in America are the Bulgarians. One branch of them are the Macedonians”. @ Miro Sekula Encyclopedia of Canada’s peoples, Paul R. Magocsi, Multicultural History, pp. 287-292, University of Toronto Press, 1999, ISBN 0-8020-2938-8: “Whether they supported the idea of autonomy (IMRO) or annexation to Bulgaria (Supreme Committee), most articulate Slavs in Macedonia by the end of the nineteenth century considered themselves Bulgarians and therefore identified as Bulgaro-Macedonians.” @ Miro Sekula The Macedonian Conflict: Ethnic Nationalism in a Transnational World, pp. 85-89, by Loring M. Danforth: “The largest number of Slavic-speaking immigrants from Macedonia came to the United States during the first decade of the twentieth century, at which time they identified themselves either as Bulgarians or as Macedonian-Bulgarians”. Cheers! I agree with with Loring Danforth because I have gotten to know a lot of them who either identified themselves as Bulgarians or as Macedonian Bulgarians who were always going to the Bulgarian church or dances sponsored by the Bulgarian church if there was one or by the Bulgarian people themselves. Althoough they all came from Yugoslavia but they preferred the Bulgarians over the Serbians because they were old Bulgarian renegades who in the last decade or so they have converted themselves to “Macedonism” which a political scham to convert the South Slavonian Slavs to a different but foreign and fraudulent identity by the name of “Macedonians”, but actually pseudo-Macedonians who are against anything that Macedonia and its people stood for, that is, Hellenism. N.M.H. The pseudo-genetic engineering study conducted in Spain is probably the most deceptive and fraudulent work published for the South Slavonian Slavs to fraudulently connect them with the “Macedonian”, Greek of course people, but without their Greekness so that it will provide for them a deceptive and fraudulent identity to lean on and dream on that they have some connection with the Macedonian people that they love so much to identify themselves because when you have not much history and whatever it is is useless and worthless, so it does make sense to appropriate the history of your southern neighbors who are so well renowned in the world for their Macedonian but Greek history. I would like to say that if there were any genetic similarities of historical importance , those belong to either the ancient Paeonians or the ancient Dardanians but not to the ancient Macedonians because their genetic make up is identicak to to that of the other Greek people of the mainland. Iwould also like to let my audience know that when the ancient Macedonians were joing the other Greeks in the mainland to get ready for the Persian campaign, there were no South Slavonian Slavs or any other kind of Slavic people residing in what constitutes today their homeland but, on the contrary, there were Paeonians and Dardanians and some of them may have been used by Alexander to supply his army with them but Alexander did use many Greek soldiers to fight with him against the Persians. Also, when the ancient Romans were conquering the Balkans as well as Greece where were the South Slavonian Slavs to be found. Obviously, NOWHERE as there were not any there at that time either. Finally, when Saint Paul visited Ancient Macedonia as well as Greece where were the South Slavonians? They wee not there again and nowhere to be found. One more thing for all of you to know is that when Saint Paul visited the Macedonian cities of Napoli, Filippi, Appolonia, Thessaloniki, Beroia as well as Athens and Corinth he did preach the word of God to all of them in their native Greek language and not, ever in any Slavic language as there were as I said earlier no Slavs to be found there. The Slavic People came down the Balkans in the sixth or seventh centuries and that is about one thousand years later than Macedonia became a Roman province. So, where is the connection of the South Slavonian Slavs with Macedonian Greek, of course, people when there were not any when the Macedonian Greek people together with the other Greeks were making history? The conclusion is that since the South Slavonian Slavs were not there to make history with the Macedonian as well as other Greek people, they take the easy way out they steal our history with FRAUD AND FORGERY. N.M.H. The battle at Chaeronea in the month of August,338b.c. was fought primarily between the Macedonian but Greek army and the the two major city-states of Athens and Thebes. The war was nothing more than a civil war just like the one the people of the South fought against the people of the north not too many years ago. In both cases it was a civil war fought for supremacy of one group over the other one. It just happened that the north prevailed over the south whether we are talking about the United States or the Greek people of the north against those of the south. The 24 million question is what do the South Slavonian Slavs have to do with the Greek civil war between the Macedonian Greek people of the north and the Athenian and Theban people of the mainland. Where were the South Slavonian Slavic people to be found when the Greeks were fighting their civil wars. I do no think that the South Slavonian Slavs dare to identify or even confuse themselves with the Macedonian who were Greek and themselves who are Slavic people who did not appear in the Balkans until the sixth or seventh centuries. Could it be that using the deceptive and fraudulent name “Macedonians” for themselves may automatically make them be what that fraudulent name means or stand for. Could it be that a deceptive and fraudulent name may give a person or a people a new identity , that is, an identity that is totally false and foreign to them. Could it be that I am not who I am but what the deceptive and fraudulent name I chose to CALL myself.Could it be that we can chose to call ourselves by the same name our next door neignbors,also, call themselves and get away with it? Can neighboring people call themselves by the same name and use that same name to identify two ethnically different people like the Greeks and the South Slavonian Slavs? The question is why would the South Slavonian Slavs like to use a stolen name for themselves? is it because the want to victimize the Hellenic identity of Macedonia or to undermine the Greek sovereignty of Macedonia and forge a Slavic identity to Macedonia which has been Hellenic land for more than two millennia. How is it that the international community and all the scholars in the world allow such an identity theft to happen and go unpunished? These all legitimate questions and need not only to be answered but resolved quickly, justly and honorably. N.M.H. Goran says that we or I cannot sustain a discussion without being offensive. Well, Goran, who is or who are the ones that are offensive? is it the Greeks or the South Slavonian Slavs who not only offend us or insult us but constantly are attacking with hybris, blasphemy and sacrilege by committing an identity theft of the Macedonian Greek name and using fraud and forgery to dispute the Hellenic identity of Macedonia and, above all, forge a Slavic identity or even a Slavic sovereignty to that land if possible. So, Goran, who is or are offensive, the South Slavonian Slavs who are appropriating our Macedonian identity or the Greeks who are patiently and stupidly tolerating all these crimes committed by your people against our Macedonian Greek people who are losing their patience and need to take some drastic measures to stop this wholesale robbery? N.M.H. How come the Slavs, Albanians, Gypsies, etc living in Peloponnese in 1821 got the right to call themselves “Greeks” or even “Hellenes”? Just because their independent country was called “Greece”!!!!!!! NO OTHER REASON! The pathetic attempt by Greeks to change their international name into “Hellenes” creates problems at passport control officers in several countries because they have no clue what “Hellas” is!!!!! enat These people assimilated in the Greek state, so of course they became Greeks, what’s your point?? How does this make the FYROMians, a Slavic people, not Slavs?? If you are so dumb not to know what “Hellas” means, open some book… @ Alexander your posts are just a spam and prove the opposite of what you claim , and here are the real quotes from the links “A phylogenetic tree constructed on the basis of the high-resolution data deriving from other populations revealed the clustering of Macedonians together with other Balkan populations (Greeks, Croats, Turks and Romanians) and Sardinians, close to another “European” cluster consisting of the Italian, French, Danish, Polish and Spanish populations. The included African populations grouped on the opposite side of the tree.” NO MENTION OF BULGARIANS AND SERBS, AND PLACES MACEDONIANS (BY THEIR ANCIENT NAME THAT YOU DISPUTE) IN THE OLD EUROPEAN NATIONS, IN ALL OF THE ARTICLES..AND CONFIRMS THAT YOU DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING AGAINST USING SCIENTIFIC DATA THAT DESCRIBES THE TERMS MACEDONIANS AND THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA, BU THE SAME SCIENTISTS THAT YOU QUOTE AND OPINIONS SUPPORT! @ Alexander First of all the Bulgarians are not Slavs…..stop copy – pasting, reading only the Greek neo-nazi propaganda, and start thinking with your own head..if you have one! We know what you believe, but here is a matter of empirical evidence! If what you say is true than the logic will imply that many Macedonians from Bulgaria and Greece are just registered as Bulgarians and Greeks. The USA administrative records are acknowledged around the world as the most reliable, and in the same records there are many Greeks that do not declare as Trakians, or Attikans, or Cretans, but declare as Geeks…and the same goes for Bulgarians…so another of your spams is disclosed!…keep posting, you’re helping us, the Macedonians, a great deal…thanks! @ Alexander Yes, Slavic-speaking, not Slavs! And contrary to what the author states “at which time they identified themselves either as Bulgarians or as Macedonian-Bulgarians” I have provided a proof of records that states the opposite…thanks for this one too! People are really laughing A LOT with the FYROM and it’s fanatic efforts to create a nation and a history using Greek, Bulgarian but also Albanian elements! Until now they had bad relations with all of it’s neighbours because of their stupid *and dangerous) ultra-nationalism, but, as if that wasn’t enough, now they’re making other Slavs angry because they refuse to be called what they are, Slavs, like as if the word is an insult! My advice to them is to wake up from their nationalistic dream (see Skopje turned into a Las Vegas-style amusement park…) and accept what they are: a South Slavic people and actually Bulgarians. We have a joke about FYROMians in Poland: Q: How many FYROMians does it take to screw in a light bulb? A: 1001. One to screw in the light bulb, and about 1000 to create web pages “proving” that electricity was invented in Skopje. @ The Cincinnatian A lots of jibrish in your post… St. Paul didn’t “visited Ancient Macedonia as well as Greece” …he visited Macedonia and there was no greeks or Greece. Todays Greece consist of many other nations that did not consider themselves to be of Hellenic origin, and today we have some urging for independence from Greece….don’t let me start denying your origins and ethnogenesis….just read “The Black Athens”! Yes “visited the Macedonian cities of Napoli, Filippi, Appolonia, Thessaloniki, Beroia” they are Macedonian cities, but you claim they are Greek! The Romans where fighting the Macedonians together with their Hellenic vassals for 150 years, and it is the longest war campaign in the history of the world…and the 1000 years you mentioned are just and ignorant, stupid person trying to make a point…and the roman authors have shown much more respect towards the Macedonians than towards the Hellenic population! And you also try to show expertise in genetics…”but not to the ancient Macedonians because their genetic make up is identicak to to that of the other Greek people of the mainland.”..So how can you prove this hilarious claim of yours?! …or will you, as usual, just offer empty talk? @ The Cincinnatian You better give up! What more of a proof do you need….If you write here “Macedonian” it implies to everybody that the subject is connected to Republic of Macedonia, to us the Macedonians opposite to Greek….it is stupid to use the term of Greek Macedonians, or Macedonian Greeks to describe something virtual, unreal….Or if you are trying to say that you want to describe Greek citizens living in a Greek region of Macedonia, than do not use it without explanation, because there live Bulgarians, Serbs, Turks, Albanians, Macedonians and Greeks, among others! And certainly they are Greeks, because you do not allow a self determination and minority rights in your country!…Change that and we will know for sure, that how true democracies operate in the 21st century! @ Marta from Poland And here is another one that just wants to present as clever! Martha, Macedonia and the Republic of Macedonia is supported by the Polish Administration, Scientists and Politics. You should read more. Yes, we all make jokes but usually in stereotypes about thins, and in this case people and places we do not know about! Polish official science confirms the significance of St. Cyril and Methodius for the Poles, and calls them as Macedonians, as well as Vatican does! On the other hand, as a young person as you strike me, you should start reading some modern takes on history, not only the 10-15 centuries old, 20 times translated quotes…the modern science has wiped the old and here is a chance that we, The Macedonians, are discovering our own history for the first time as independent state, and I hope that the young people of the world should support such efforts more than the old ignorant establishments! Any how, you have the right of opinion, but you should fight for the right of others to receive the same treatment as you have…freedom of expansion, human and religious rights, the freedom of self declaration…..and if you do not do that, the world will be a bad place for your children to grow up! @The Cincinnatian I was replying to George, but never mind. It’s clear that we cannot discuss this as civilized people, first of all because you look at us as to ‘not equal to you’ or ‘less than you’, marking us as thieves and what not. This statement: “So, Goran, who is or are offensive, the South Slavonian Slavs who are appropriating our Macedonian identity or the Greeks who are patiently and stupidly tolerating all these crimes committed by your people against our Macedonian Greek people who are losing their patience and need to take some drastic measures to stop this wholesale robbery?” says it all. You are marking us the thieves and the evil ones and of course, you are so tolerant, but you may soon lose your patience. Doesn’t this sounds familiar? @ Miro Sekula and Goran You might be just FYROMian propagandists and sources falsifiers, but you are also Slavs, and actually Bulgarians, speaking a Bulgarian language, deal with it. For your information: officialy FYROM does not recognise a “Bulgarian” ethnic group in FYROM, however: During the last few years thousands of citizens of the FYROM have applied for Bulgarian citizenship (amongst them FYROM’s former PM Ljubco Georgievski), with 42,372 having already received Bulgarian passports. In order to obtain the passport, the FYROMian citizens who apply for Bulgarian citizenship must prove that they have a Bulgarian origin and a Bulgarian national consciousness. Between 1 January to 18 November 2011, the Bulgarian council for citizenship considered 22,241 applications for citizenship, of which 13,607 were approved. Lol, funny, huh?? Allow me to remind what your main hero said: Krste Misirkov, Bulgarian philologist and publicist, considered a national hero in the FYROM: Some will ask why I speak of breaking away from the Bulgarians when in the past we have even called ourselves Bulgarians and when it is generally accepted that unification creates strength, and not separation.(“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) And, anyway, what sort of new Macedonian nation can this be when we and our fathers and grandfathers and great-grandfathers have always been called Bulgarians?(“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) We are more Bulgarian than those in Bulgaria. (“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) We speak a Bulgarian language. (“On the Macedonian Matters”, Sofia 1903) Now have a good look on what your modern officials said: Kiro Gligorov, first president of the FYROM: We are Slavs who came to this area in the sixth century. We are not descendants of the ancient Macedonians. (Foreign Information Service Daily Report, Eastern Europe, February 26, 1992, p. 35) We are Slav Macedonians. That’s who we are! We have no connection to Alexander the Greek and his Macedonia! Our ancestors came here in the 5th and 6th century AD. (Toronto Star, March 15, 1992) Gyordan Veselinov, ambassador of the FYROM to Canada: We are not related to the northern Greeks who produced leaders like Philip and Alexander the Great. We are a Slav people and our language is closely related to Bulgarian. There is some confusion about the identity of the people of my country. (Ottawa Citizen, 24 February 1999) Slobodan Casule, politician of the FYROM: We belong to the same Slav people. (To the Foreign Minister of Bulgaria, Solomon Pasi, Utrinski Vesnik newspaper, December 29, 2001) And now take a look what ancient Macedonians said: Alexander I of Macedon, king of Macedon from 498 BCE to 454 BCE: Men of Athens. In truth I would not tell it to you if I did not care so much for all Greece; I myself am by ancient descent a Greek, and I would not willingly see Greece change her freedom for slavery. (Herodotus, “Histories”, 9.45) Alexander the Great, king of Macedon, 356 BCE – 323 BCE: Your ancestors came to Macedonia and the rest of Greece and did us great harm, though we had done them no prior injury. I have been appointed leader of the Greeks, and wanting to punish the Persians I have come to Asia, which I took from you. (Alexander’s letter to Persian king Darius in response to a truce plea, as quoted in “Anabasis Alexandri” by Roman historian Arrian, Book II, 14, 4) Miro and Goran (btw, how nice Slavic names!) you are humiliating yourselves and the world is laughing at you… @ enat You say: “How come the Slavs, Albanians, Gypsies, etc living in Peloponnese in 1821 got the right to call themselves “Greeks” or even “Hellenes”? Just because their independent country was called “Greece”!!!!!!! NO OTHER REASON!” Not at all dear Enat. To start with the Gypsies, they are Greek citizens but they are not considered as Greeks. The few thousands of Slavs that remained in Peloponnese after their rebellion against the Byzantines were assimilated and were mixed with the Greeks through the following centuries and by 1821 they were Greeks. Regarding the Arvanites (Albanians) that arrived in the area by 1100 AD nearly half of them left for Sicily and South Italy after Peloponnese was conquered by the Ottoman Turks. The rest of them also were mixed with the Greeks of Peloponesse and the only difference they with the other Greeks was their language that was Albanian. Yet the language was not a proof of certain ethnic identification as many Greeks by the time of Revolution were speaking the Arvanite (Albanian) dialect. So, all these populations were Greeks much before the naming of their country as “Greece”. As you see propaganda hides the right events and misleads! Thank you. Dimitris From Athens have a look to this book (there is also the greek version of it) and you will learn when “Greeks” started to call themselves “makedones”, too! @ enat You just can’t be serious! Another one of the many self-published FYROMian propagandistic books which doesn’t cite any sources? Written by a famous ultra-nationalist woman who is the representative of the UMD lobby? Hahahhaha, you ‘re sooooo busted! :p @ enat Eugene N. Borza, American historian, has written multiple works on ancient Macedon and is regarded an expert on the overall subject: Modern Slav Macedonians, cannot establish a link with antiquity, as the Slavs entered the Balkans centuries after the demise of the ancient Macedonian kingdom. Only the most radical Slavic factions—mostly émigrés in the United States, Canada, and Australia—even attempt to establish a connection to antiquity. The twentieth-century development of a “Macedonian” ethnicity, and its recent evolution into independent statehood following the collapse of the Yugoslav state in 1991, has followed a rocky road. In order to survive the vicissitudes of Balkan history and politics, the “Macedonians”, who have had no history, need one. They reside in a territory once part of a famous ancient kingdom, which has borne the Macedonian name as a region ever since and was called ”Macedonia” for nearly half a century as part of Yugoslavia. And they speak a language now recognized by most linguists outside Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece as a south Slavic language separate from Slovenian, Serbo-Croatian, and Bulgarian. Their own so-called “Macedonian ethnicity” had evolved for more than a century, and thus it seemed natural and appropriate for them to call the new nation “Macedonia” and to attempt to provide some cultural references to bolster ethnic survival. (“Macedonia Redux”, in “The Eye Expanded: life and the arts in Greco-Roman Antiquity”, ed. Frances B Tichener & Richard F. Moorton, University of California Press, 1999) @ Marta: Very nice joke, thanks for sharing! We have one too in my university: Q: How do you call a FYROMian scholar? A: Scholiar! @ enat Dimitris From Athens have a look to this book (there is also the greek version of it) and you will learn when “Greeks” started to call themselves “makedones”, too! Please indicate to me the point(s) of interest or I don’t think you expect me to read all this propaganda rubbish! Goran, Sorry you feel this way but ask us and you will see how we feel about you and your people. You said that you cannot discuss things with whom, with us that have been victimized by your people who appropriated our Macedonian Greek identity and want to use it as their own any time in history. Are you denying that you and your South Slavonian Slavic people are not trying to commit a wholesale robbery of our history, culture and Macedonian legacy? Are you really not aware that that we, the Macedonian Greek people as well as all the Greeks are very patient and even foolish enough to to be so tolerant with the Macedonian Greek identity thieves from your country? Did you ever realize what another country would have done if their northern neighbors were to ever try to appropriate their identity and make it their own and, on top of that, brag about it that it was always theirs? I am not trying to sound belligerent but it would have constituted a cause for war if this might have happen to another country other than Greece. We ar good people, patient people and reasonable people but unfortunately we are dealing with people who are behaving as though they are insane, paranoid and schisophrenic and just plain psychophaths who need help but cannot help themselves but are unwilling to ask for it and get their lives back to normal I know what you and your people want and I know what they have told you about Macedonia and the Macedonian people. Those things are all false because Macedonia is, has been and will always be Hellenic and the Macedonian people have always been Greek and will always be so, while you are South Slavonian Slavs and your country shound be called South Slavonia to show YOUR TRUE IDENTITY and forget about dreaming or hallucinating for things that you have nothing to do with. I tried to talk to you as a reasonable person like I have done so to many others like yourself but I got nowhere and let’s hope that this time I will get a good response from you. N.M.H. Milo, I do not want my name, that is my Macedonian Greek identity to be used to identify or even confuse a South Slavonian Slav like yourself with the Macedonian name that is a totally foreign and fraudulent name for you and I would really be guilty and ashamed of myself to tell myself and other people that I am WHAT I AM NOT. I know that the Macedonian name causes a lot of confusion between the South Slavonian Slavs and the Macedonian Greeks who are the rear and actual Macedonian people and you and your South Slavonian Slavic people are the impostors but yet unfortunately and fraudulently being known as “Macedonians” but really pseudo-Macedonians because there were never anytime in history any Slavic people known as Macedonians other than the Greek people of the Macedonian provine of northern Greece. I know and I am sorry to admit that fraud and forgery prevailed over the historical truth and justice but politics is very corrupt and totally indifferent and inconsiderable of the facts that disputed the “Macedonization” scam of the South Slavonian Slavs but just like in the case of Jesus Christhistory repeated itself and, since, the South Slavonian Slavs yelled louder their fraudulent pseudo-Macedonian name and, therefore, they prevailed and, consequently, fraud and forgery was ignored and it still is to the detriment of the Greeks who had but did not use any documentation to prove their case but left it to others to do it for us but they did not and we were left behind. However, no matter what the Macedonian name has come to be confused with, the fact is and remains that Macedonia has alwys been Hellenic land and the Macedonians, the real and actual Macedonians, are and will always be Hellenic people and FRAUD AND FORGERY will ever change that. My final question to all the South Slavonian Slavs who use the fraudulent Macedonian Greek identity, how can sleep at night and how can go on in your lives when you know that have committed wholesale robbery against your fellow neighbors in the south. But again who feels guilty in this world for their stolen goods? Not the South Slavonian pseudo-Macedonian Slavs, of course. N.M.H. inconsiderable of the facts that have been surrounding the Greek people’s lives today Miro Seculoff, I know you do not want to hear the truth but you have just like the rest of th South Slavonian Slavs a big appetite for garbage that is being fed to you by your government propaganda machine of indoctrination. I remember that not too long ago your fraudulent masters were “Macedonizing” not only your country, your people and your Serbo=Bulgarian language but Some of the Saints, God itself and the White race itself. So, continuing that stupid path why not “Macedonize” everything else that has even the most remote connection to the ancient and classic Macedonia. You, obviously, have a real problem accepting the facts and the truth as St. Paul did go to Macedonia, that is, the real and actual Macedonia and not the phony and fraudulent country of yours that stole the Macedonian name from the Macedonian Greek people by means of fraud and forgery. For your information, the Macedonia we are talking about and the Macedonia St. Paul visited many years ago WAS NOT YOUR COUNTRY, but Hellenic Macedonia the one and only Macedonia that existed back then and now ant the towns He visited such as Napoli, Filippi, Amphipoli, Appolonia, Thessaloniki and Beroia were Macedonian but Greek cities and they were then and now in the real and only Macedonia, the Hellenic Macedonia as there was not any other “Macedonia”, obviously because there were no South Slavonian Slavs to steal that name and use it for their own country as though it was their own. You forgot, purposely, of course to comment on the language St. Paul used to preach the word of God and you can still find all those letters, that the Macedonian People then only spoke and understood the Greek language and that is so because the were Hellenic people and nothing else. You and your South Slavonian Slavs need to accept the truth and stop living with lies, deception,fraud and forgery. The truth will set you free and you will feel liberated from all the lies and deception. Greece is not a country made up of other nationalities. Yes we have some old Bulgarian renegades, some moslems and some Albanians but we do have an established Greek identity better than your own country that has to deal with thirty percent Albanians who cannot wait to unite with Albania when the opportunity will call for it. It may be true that the Greeks at least some of them allied themselves with the Romans to fight against the Macedonians, nevertheless Greeks but they made a mistake for which they regretted all their life and it cost them total loss of freedom and a lot of slavery. The Romans played their game very well but the Greeks whichever of them of them were fooled by the Romans learned their lesson the hard way. Seculof, you have nothing to say but nonsense because that is all you have learned from your propaganda masters. One more thing. Miro, where were your people for a thousand years after Macedonian became a roman province. They were nowhere to be found because they were not there but do you want to know who were there before your Slavic people came down the Balkans, they were the Paeonians and the Dardanians and, therefore, if there is any continuity for your people from antiquity it was not the Macedonians but Your Paeonian and Dardanian ancestors. Finally, if you think you are anything other than a Slav that mixed with his Paeonian and Dardanian ancestors, you really need to have youself examined togethe with the rest of you manufactured a false and fraudulent genetic engineerig report to fraudulently connect your South Slavonian Selves with the Macedonian Greeks but without their Greekness. You have been told a lot of lies by your master liars, so it is time to listen to the truth regardless of how bitter or painful it may be. Wake up and liberate yourself from your “Macedonization” scham bondage. Do it now and you will feel good about yourself, like a new person who has been born again. N.M.H. He should not have taken offence. He is a Slav. I’ll put $100000000.00 AUD, and i can afford it, on a bet that if the envoy in question had a DNA test done he would be classified a Slav. Guys be proud of your ancestry and language. Bulgarian speaking Slavs are a wonderful thing. Just stay away from antiquity for you missed it by 1000 years okay. In fact lets step up the wager. I invite the entire population of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia with the exception of the Albanians to have a DNA test. Those that test non slav ill buy them a house of their choice and a donkey. Michael they are Slavs so there should be no offence being called Slavs. you cannot call them Macedonians because the naming dispute is unresolved additionally it may cause confusion with Hellenic Macedonians (the original ones), Albanian Macedonians (the the second oldest ones), Bulgarian Macedonians (the third oldest ones). FYROM should sort out its identity issue before taking offence to being called Slavs. You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 7 EXCLUSIVE: Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are no riskier than their conventionally farmed equivalents, the European Commission’s Chief Scientific Advisor Anne Glover has told EURACTIV in an exclusive interview, calling for countries impeding GMO use to be put to proof. The endorsement of GMO safety will rattle member states where bans are in place (see background), and represents the CSA’s highest-profile policy intervention since Glover became Commission President José Manuel Barroso’s scientific advisor last December. “There is no substantiated case of any adverse impact on human health, animal health or environmental health, so that’s pretty robust evidence, and I would be confident in saying that there is no more risk in eating GMO food than eating conventionally farmed food,” , saying the precautionary principle no longer applies as a result. Glover said she was not promoting GMOs, and added that “eating food is risky”, explaining: “Most of us forget that most plants are toxic, and it’s only because we cook them, or the quantity that we eat them in, that makes them suitable.” But she said that scientific evidence needed to play a stronger role in policymaking, firing a warning shot at countries that have banned GMOs. “I think we could really get somewhere in Europe if when evidence is used partially, there were an obligation on people to say why they have rejected evidence,” she said. GMOs and other scientific advances must be explored in order to head off the increasing scarcity of energy and other resources and competition for land use, Glover suggested. “If we are using land to produce biofuels, we are not producing food, and that that means we have to intensify food production,” she said. Glover, a former professor of biology at the University of Aberdeen, served as chief scientific advisor for Scotland before from 2006-2011. She joined the Commission on 1 January. Her role is to bolster scientific evidence by saying things that politicians and officials are sometimes uncomfortable with, she said, adding: “The evidence with which I work is independent, the evidence with which I work does not change according to political philosophy. And that should give people a lot of confidence.” Glover said that discomfort around the subject of GM crops in the 1980s and 1990s was “a generation ago, we’ve moved on and the challenges are completely different”. She said that the precautionary principle was appropriate when applied properly, but added: “We should not … somehow tie our hands behind our back in such a way that we will be so precautionary that we will wait for everyone else to use our knowledge before we use it.” That would be my worry, because knowledge is an international currency, and we are amongst the slowest in taking advantage of the knowledge we create, and that cannot be right. Glover also defended the recent teaser video issued by the Commission in support of its 'Women in Science' campaign. The teaser – which depicted young women mixing chemicals morphing into cosmetics – was pulled by the Commission amidst complaints that it pandered to sexist stereotypes. “I may not like the fact that young girls think about high heels and lipstick. Now, if that’s what young girls think about then you would be foolish if you were an advertiser to ignore that,” Glover said, expressing disappointment with the criticism from “many older scientists and women my age”. She said: “They had perhaps not thought about who was the focus of the campaign. It was not them, but adolescents.” Glover also said that she was examining the possibility of creating a network of individual chief scientific advisors within member states, to provide more clearly focused lines of communication on scientific evidence within EU policymaking. The European Commission proposed allowing national cultivation bans for GMOs in July 2010, in a bid to break a deadlock in EU GM crop approvals which has seen few varieties approved for cultivation in more than 12 years. The proposal, however, has been subject to bitter divisions in the Council since then, with recent attempts by the Danish presidency to find a compromise agreement making little headway. To date, seven EU countries have introduced national safeguard bans on growing Monsanto's MON 810 insect-resistant maize: France, Germany, Austria, Greece, Hungary, Luxembourg and Bulgaria. In January, German biotech firm BASF Plant Science announced that it was moving its plant biotech research activities from Germany to the United States and would cease all work to develop GM crops specifically for the EU market. EURACTIV Turkey: EURACTIV Poland: I am a skeptic, I want more long term proof. When changed will the product, grain or other change their. A bacteria can change their form, a tuberculin can change a virus can why not this modified. What are Anne Glover’s connections to the Biotech industry cartel? Sounds like a spokesperson to me. Her comments and “recommendations” are extremely simple and quite frankly “naive”. It is a known fact that the biotech ag cartel is in the middle of a gigantic global arm-twisting effort (Mexico, Africa, India and Europe) to “greenwash” the yet to be proven GMO seeds and all the attending pesticides, chemicals, fertilizers that poison the environment and destroy biodiversity and ecosystems. It is up to the biotech industry, the Monsanto’s of the world and their cartel to prove them safe with independent, peer reviewed research which they have not done as they patent the gmo seeds making independent research very difficult. Particularly as the global epidemic of obesity, diabetes and cancer align with the increasing global introduction of these synthetic food crops. I offer the following archives on GMO foods world-wide as they affect and impact human health and the environment for both your readers and Ms. Glover to counter her “glowing” reports. YOUR FOOD, YOUR HEALTH Since the antiobotic marker gene problem has been addressed, there has been no real problem with GMO technology. It’s as safe as any breeding programme. The real problem is the use to which it has been put in much of developed country agriculure. This is a different issue. Monsanto Threatens Europe: Industrial Food Giants Bully European Lawmakers Craig Stapleton, former U.S. ambassador to France, was quoted by the New American, supporting the spread of GMOs: “Europe is moving backwards not forwards on this issue with France playing a leading role, along with Austria, Italy, and even the [European] Commission…. Moving to retaliation will make clear that the current path has real costs to EU interests and could help strengthen European pro-biotech voice.” I’m currently in a country that bans GMO products and very happy about it. For GMO permission to be adopted, i would: 1) Confirm long-term studies that prove no effects. The comparison to non-GMO foods should have independent evaluations by each country. 2) confirm all decisions have no conflicts of interest with any GMO first. Run extensively through an Ombudsman. 3) Have GMO companies publicly present their business strategies. Typically, the GMO firm looks at tying seed supplies so that a farmer/producer has few choices. For those in the USA, there are two relevant facts that will affect farmers as well as farming costs: – a 3 year “dormant” period if a farmer decides to go from GMO to non-GMO, to make sure there is no seed mixing. – equipment from a GMO farm cannot be used on a non-GMO farm, unless specially cleaned. The second aspect causes ‘switching costs’ in business parlance and keeps a farmer on the GMO track once he gets in. These are secondary effects and costs that a country incurs as well as the economy, in addition to potential health benefits. GMO could make sense for ethanol and other types of production, but that is a different question. The GMO firms are very savvy, and EU politicians should not be short sighted. Total impact cost is very important in this case, in my opinion. What she says does not make much sense to me: “Can I say categorically that there is no risk from eating genetically modified food, for example? Well, as a scientist, I can’t say ‘no, there is no risk’ because there is a risk associated with everything. I can, however, categorically say that there is risk associated with eating conventionally farmed produce – there is risk associated with everything.” I do not trust her. Here is what fully qualified and independent geneticists have to say about GMO foods and how dangerous they really are: Dr. Mae-Wan Ho is a world renowned geneticist & biophysicist. She is Director of the Institute of Science in Society, she is co-founder of the International Science Panel on Genetic Modification and is scientific advisor to the Third World Network. She has written more than 300 publications and over a dozen books including “Genetic Engineering – Dream or Nightmare?” and “The Case for a GM-free Sustainable World.” Dr. David Suzuki on the dangers of genetic modification (horizontal gene transfer) specifically here regarding GE trees. A monoculture world will kill it. Anyone with a modicum of understanding of science and natural systems knows this. See also: I could post hundreds more links demonstrating the real dangers of GMO foods and of genetic engineering. At last a scientific comment on GMO’s. Europe invented GMO’s but let it be used by the Americans to there benefit since the early nineties. Nobody was ill or ever died from eating GMO’s. But thousands die every week from all the pesticides farmers are using on their plants. And GMO’s allow to largely reduce the use of pesticides.The US is followed now by the emergent countries. So many European GMO labs left Europe for the States with our young and brilliant scientists following. This is only one example of Europe loosing its scientific edge. It is high time we stop the collective obsession about GMO’s in Europe. At last a scientific comment on GMO’s. Europe invented GMO’s but let it be used by the Americans to there benefit since the early nineties. Nobody was ill or ever died from eating GMO’s. But thousands die every week from all the pesticides farmers are using on their plants. And GMO’s allow to largely reduce the use of pesticides.The US is followed now by the emergent countries. So many European GMO labs left Europe for the States with our young and brilliant scientists following. This is only one example of Europe loosing its scientific edge. It is high time we stop the collective obsession about GMO’s in Europe. @Tony Van der haegen – actually, there are deaths that have been linked to GMO foods, and also hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of severe health problems linked to GMO foods. Let me refer you to two of the links I posted above, namely: @Tony Van der haegen “Fears grow as study shows genetically modified crops ‘can cause liver and kidney damage'” My 2 cents: A person with an average intelligence cannot pretend to understand the dependencies of a living organism within an ecosystem. If you modify a few variables (DNA) in a living organism it will have some effect on other parts of this organism or even effects on other organisms living around it. Never mind eating this stuff. We need many more years and very powerful computers to be able to safely genetically modify some organisms. So in the meantime, please keep GMO experiments safely in a lab and continue studying. There is a very long way to go. Good interview – thanks. Unfortunately sensible comments like those from Anne Glover won’t be picked up by the tabloid press who prefer scare stories of ‘Frankenfood’. @ Brian – may I recommend this documentary to you? This comment is absolutely laughable and so preposterous as to sound plausible. Something unproven to be beneficial has to be proven and those proposing it need to put up their proof. This opposite of truth statement requires that those who are willing to just hold their cards and stick with the tried and true, prove that they should not become the human laboratory experinment for some administrator shooting off their mouth. European Commission Chief Scientific Advisor Anne Glover – YOU PROVE UP OR SHUT UP! Study links Monsanto GM Corn to Kidney Failure New comprehensive study on the effects of GMO foods on mammal health shows Monsanto GMO corn linked to hepatorenal toxicity (rapid deterioration in kidney function). Iyel Bey – Food Security Critic Outspoken critic in the multibillion dollar food security industry, Exposing the rhetoric and practices and diversions of statisticians, mathematicians, governments, NGO’s, chemical companies and theoreticians who have not, will not and do not intend to produce food. Offering clarity and insight in what has become a business where the industry leaders grow rich by explaining to others why they are so poor. Articles and commentary examine the fallacies of reliance on solutions offered by businesses that offer solutions to a problem that once solved, will put them out of business. The world will soon demand food from all of the food security investment and programs, which plainly shows why, when it comes to food security, talk is cheap. The supply exceeds demand. His writings show that food security specialists usually don’t know what they’re talking about – and make you feel it’s your fault. Gilles-Eric Seralini is a university lecturer and a researcher in molecular biology. He is also the author of a book entitled OGM, Le Vrai Débat (GM foods, the real debate). He was one of the first scientists to warn the public opinion against the dangers linked to Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). In this interview, he reminds us of a few basic facts about GMOs and tells us about the threat they represent. What is your current research about ? My research focuses on the intimate functioning of a cell, on the dialogue between organs and organisms, and on molecular dialogues. More specifically, I am studying molecular endocrinology and the relations between hormones/cancers and pesticides. In 1997, along with a group of scientists, you asked for a moratorium to be set on the distribution of GMOs.I was asked to be part of the government commissions which were evaluating GMOs at the French Ministry of Environment and Agriculture. I knew the side effects of pesticides on health and I also knew the mode of creation of transgenic plants that produce or absorb pesticides. From the beginning, I became suspicious of the controls that had been done. And I unveiled the scandal : a consortium of lobbies had taken control of the situation, They were putting a brake on research on the side effects of pesticides on health. Those corporations want to distribute technological products rapidly and without any control, they want to patent the base of the food trade. This moratorium enabled us to make it clear to agricultural associations, agricultural trade unions, consumer associations, as well as to various ecological and environment friendly groups that there was a public health problem. Then we also very quickly warned ministries. We need a global reflection and action. Is that what you are doing with the Independent Committee of Research and Information on Genetic Engineering (CRII-GEN) ? The CRII-GEN is a Committee of associative and independent expertise ; it is mostly based on volunteering for it works only thanks to subscriptions. We provide our subscribers with new elements so that they can decide whether they want to accept or to refuse certain ideas conveyed by the GMO file. We have also managed to talk to several firms producing GMOs. We explained to them the risks implied by the distribution of transgenic plants on the environment and health. They can no longer say that they don’t know. It is legally very important, in case there are deaths due to the consumption of transgenic soy or corn in the future. Deaths due to GM Foods ? It is the same problem as mad cow disease. For the cows that had been fed with meat-and-bone meal, there was a possibility that they would die and it turned out to be true. Genetically modified foods are mainly plants created to produce or absorb pesticides. The side effects of pesticides on health can be discovered after months or years. They will be multifactorial and complex, and they won’t have the same action as a virus that kills within a few days. It took us years to acknowledge that smoking causes cancer, and daily smoking is easy to trace. If GMOs are disseminated without labeling il will take dozens of years. How can you trace GM Foods ? The main result of our fight is that now GM Foods are being traced more and more in Europe. From a worldwide viewpoint, people are beginning to label, and Europe’s labelling and tracing system is used as an example. The United States doesn’t label GM Foods and is more and more isolated. Even Canada wants to start to label. We were the first ones to ask to trace GM Foods in 1997. People thought it was irrational because the US exported GM and non-GM products. Everything was mixed. Today everybody knows that we need to trace GM Foods, but we still need to improve animal testing. I’m not talking about refuting a science. it just has to be used to the benefit of mankind. More at the link. Another scientist harrassed for his work. Before claiming that there is no more risk in eating GM food than eating conventionally farmed food, Prof Glover would do well first to address the studies and data presented in this report: As a Scientist and a family Farmer I am always interested whenever someone posts a research paper to defend their viewpoints. I took time to go directly to the research itself (Spiroux de Vendômois1, et al, A Comparison of the Effects of Three GM Corn Varieties on Mammalian Health, Int’l Journal of Biological Sciences, 2009; 5(7):706-726) and reviewed their findings. I thought it was striking that the Authors themselves repeatedly admitted in the paper that they did not have enough information from the study groups of rats to draw statistically relevant conclusions. Even more shocking was that while they used a control group of over 300 rats, their experimental group (being fed GM-corn) was only 80 rats and of those animals they only included 10 into their data. Why not use all 80 animals since they were already starting with a shockingly low numbered group study? Being open-minded, I assumed that since this article is already outdated in the scientific community (3 years), I searched for more recent works by the Authors. Perhaps they have filled in some of the blanks in their research since such a simple feeding study should be easily replicated in 3 years time to include more animals? I could find none, but I did discover that Greenpeace was the original study’s funding source. As a Scientist, it is critically important that research be done through an independent, peer-reviewed system. It maintains an objective viewpoint which reduces chances of data being used to further any specific predetermined viewpoint. I am open to looking through any other studies that I can find that meet these requirements. Unfortunately, none of the previous links provided meet those standards. Some science-based NGOs recently forwarded an email they’d sent to Professor Glover inviting her to meet with them to discuss how to get more rigorous science into the GMO and pesticide/chemical risk assessment process — the point being that at the moment there is little scientific rigour in the process and the safety assessment is mostly based on studies done by the industry that’s wanting to market the product! They were disappointed that Prof Glover did not reply. This is odd, for someone who says that more scientific evidence should be included in policy making. @Melinda Miller – You seem to be under a serious misapprehension about this study (Spiroux de Vendômois1, et al, A Comparison of the Effects of Three GM Corn Varieties on Mammalian Health, Int’l Journal of Biological Sciences, 2009; 5(7):706-726) which was an analysis by independent scientists of feeding trials commissioned by Monsanto on its own GM corn! In other words, the shortcomings in the studies that you point to, were entirely Monsanto’s responsibility and yet Monsanto used these studies, which you rightly characterise as flawed, to successfully gain approval for its GM corn, which is now in our food and feed supply. It is exactly this point that the independent (of industry) scientists who analysed the data were drawing attention to — that the Monsanto studies were badly designed but even they showed that the GM corn was toxic (having toxic effects on liver and kidney of rats only fed for a short time on the GM food. I urge people to read the study and thank you for drawing attention to its shortcomings. @Melinda Miller Have a look at this: Why would other scientists not pickup and reproduce these experiments? Could it really be the following? “Scientists who discover adverse findings from GMOs are regularly attacked, ridiculed, denied funding, and even fired. When Ermakova reported the high infant mortality among GM soy fed offspring, for example, she appealed to the scientific community to repeat and verify her preliminary results. She also sought additional funds to analyze preserved organs. Instead, she was attacked and vilified. Samples were stolen from her lab, papers were burnt on her desk, and she said that her boss, under pressure from his boss, told her to stop doing any more GMO research. No one has yet repeated Ermakova’s simple, inexpensive studies.” I am no scientist. Maybe you know someone who is really, completely and utterly independent? If so, can they try to reproduce these “inexpensive studies”? @Peter Russell: Thank you for drawing more attention to my original point that these types of studies are incredibly easy to produce using many 100’s of animals at a low cost (my area of research included animal studies and reviewing effects on various organs). If the Authors of the study were upset by the lack of data couldn’t they have replicated the study in the past 3 years to further their point against Monsanto? The feeding of the rats only took place over 14 weeks, processing of samples and data review should easily be done within a year. I noticed the Author’s issues with Monsanto withholding information from them, but again this should be an easily replicated study that could be done independent of any company’s data. @Pietro Fornara The Authors of the above study seem to have a laboratory doing research on GMO products and publishing their thoughts without detriment to their persons. I can name several National labs that are also doing research continually on agricultural products and they are not allowed by law to receive funding from companies. My area of expertise is medical research, but if you’d be interested I could do some looking around for you and try to find some individuals that you could contact and they themselves could attest to pursuing research in this field and not being threatened about their objectivity. This is such a wonderful and open discussion to be had. Thank you! @Peter Russell: Sorry, I forgot an important point. The Authors admit that they received data from the Monsanto study that included 80 animals in the GM-fed group, my point is why did they only choose to include 10 of these animals in their data review? I know from experience that animal model studies are extremely variable and that many factors (including gender, age, weight, and conditioning) can show extreme differences in organ functions/biochemical processes that are completely independent of the variables that a scientist is trying to study. This is why animal studies use a large number of animals to normalize these differences and why the data must be replicated. Why then did the Authors pick 10 specific animals out of 80? It makes me wonder if they picked data from animals that would further their point, maybe if all animals were included in their data the results would not implicate any difference between the control and experimental group? We’ll never know because the Authors did not give us this information for us to view in context of the study. @Melinda Miller. Since the US FDA bases its decisions on the safety of the foods on corporate provided science, the question I have for you is why are you Not placing the burden of proof for safety of GMOs on Monsanto et al? Monsanto Should provide scientifically and statistically valid studies. Monsanto should replicate questionable studies to refute them…. if they can. Monsanto should also perform proteomic analysis to evaluate mammals ingesting GMOs for up regulation and down regulation of proteins in liver cells, kidney cells, pancreatic cells and perform multigenerational histochemical studies. Can you cite any? I can not. @Ena Wizeman – considering the fact that the US FDA consists largely of people who were previously high-up in Monsanto, any such studies would by definition be unreliable and untrustworthy. See “Revolving Doors: Monsanto and the Regulators” for example. @Ena Wizeman-You are correct! Both sides should be doing experiments with all sorts of design strategies to best determine food safety. I’m sure you would agree that the more people who study such a complex issue as this is all the better! I’m simply pointing out that the research used in this thread to “prove” a viewpoint is faulty in my opinion. If it is so easy to determine that GMO food is unsafe why hasn’t it been done in a peer-reviewed objective setting? As I stated, I am not in agricultural research, but I took your challenge and went straight to the source you questioned, Monsanto. Here is a link to a page on their website in which I found studies dating back to 1993, if you click through the studies you will find under most of the research article references to multiple other studies that were done. I can’t say I have a desire to sit down and read hundreds of studies and get back to you with my review of each one, but perhaps you will find something interesting in them to carry on this discussion? I will let someone else take over this conversation so I’m not monopolizing it, but thank you again for your views and what a great civil conversation to be had! @Melinda Miller: regarding the “ease” with which Monsanto studies can be replicated, perhaps you are unaware that the biotech companies refuse to release GM and isogenic line seed for independent research and they specifically forbid such research? This has been much deplored by scientists, who have even complained to the US government, to no avail. See the Scientific American editorial here: Perhaps you are unaware too that Professor Seralini, whose team did the re-analysis of Monsanto data, constantly struggles to find funding for his lab, which depends on public donations and some meagre help here and there from NGOs? And that he has been vilified by industry-linked scientists whom he had to take to court to restore his reputation? Re why the authors only analysed 10 animals in their data review, this was the number of animals for which Monsanto provided measurement perameters, so the omission is Monsanto’s, not the authors’. This omission by Monsanto is very clear from the study and the authors again deplore it, again, very clearly. I should not have to add that it is not the job of independent scientists and the public to prove that Monsanto’s products are unsafe, but the job of Monsanto to prove that they are safe, before they are allowed onto the market. Clearly these studies have not done that and questions must be asked as to why the EU authorities accepted these inadequate studies that nevertheless show harm, as proof that this corn was safe for us to eat. @Melinda Miller – I’m baffled that you seem to think that the de Vendomois/Seralini study re-analysing Monsanto data is not peer reviewed – it obvously is, as are all this team’s papers. As for other peer reviewed studies showing GMOs are unsafe to eat (as revealed in lab animal tests), there are some, in spite of the difficulties the scientists had in accessing the test materials, ie the GM foods, and they are collected here: Monsanto’s toxicology studies submitted for regulatory approvals of GM foods, like most such industry studies done for regulatory purposes, are NOT peer reviewed or published in peer reviewed journals. Until NGOs forced such data into the open via court cases, no one was allowed to see it. This issue has caused massive controversy in Europe for years, not sure how anyone could miss it! I hope that Prof Glover, as a champion of scientific decision making, will take up this cause of transparency of industry data on GMOs and pesticides. What I find profoundly disturbing about Glover’s claims is that she says she wants a more scientific approach to GM foods but cites no data to back up her claims that they are no more risky than non-GM foods. And she ignores research that shows GM foods are more risky than non-GM foods. I wonder, though, if she’s referring to the EU ‘research’ that’s often claimed to show safety of GM food. Unfortunately it doesn’t! On the contrary, it shows yet more risk. @Peter Russell-Thank you for your thoughts, although I disagree with them I can respect the passion that you have for this topic. I wasn’t going to add any more to this discussion, but I decided to do one last quick review of literature after thinking some more about the paper in question. It’s very hard to go in-depth in a public forum with little knowledge of the audience’s background, but I found this on Monsanto’s website and I found it to succinctly explain several issues that I had quickly noticed that I found fault with the Author’s research. @ Melinda Miller. I read Monsanto’s criticisms. They are inconsistent and make very little scientific sense. Typical of pseudoscientific propaganda, no matter how many politically-influenced agencies endorse it. The article posted below addresses most of the items on your Monsanto link. The only conclusion I can draw having read both, is that Monsanto’s studies are terribly flawed, BY DESIGN –to hide negative physiological effects of rats ingesting GMOS, which Monsanto ( the self appointed health and statistics expert) unsurprisingly declares to be insignificant. Only the naiive/ ignorant would consider Monsanto’s opinion medically relevant. They are not health experts. Findings on 20 rats for 3 months have little to no significance to the effects experienced by billions of people eating GMOs for decades across generations. Monsanto is a chemical corporation whose fiduciary duty is to maximize profits expanding markets for their chemicals and their chemicals’ respective GMOs. Pretty simple to understand. Then again, maybe not. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” ? Upton Sinclair Debate on GMOs Health Risks after Statistical Findings in Regulatory Tests Joël Spiroux de Vendômois1, Dominique Cellier1,2, Christian Vélot1,3, Emilie Clair1,4, Robin Mesnage1,4, Gilles-Eric Séralini1,4 1. CRIIGEN, 40 rue Monceau, 75008 Paris France 2. University of Rouen, LITIS EA 4108, 76821 Mont Saint-Aignan, France 3. University Paris-Sud, Bâtiment 360 91405 Orsay, France 4. University of Caen, Institute of Biology, Risk Pole MRSH CNRS, EA2608, Esplanade de la Paix 14032 Caen Cedex, France How to cite this article: de Vendômois JS, Cellier D, Vélot C, Clair E, Mesnage R, Séralini GE. Debate on GMOs Health Risks after Statistical Findings in Regulatory Tests. Int J Biol Sci 2010; 6(6):590-598. Available from Abstract We summarize the major points of international debate on health risk studies for the main commercialized edible GMOs. These GMOs are soy, maize and oilseed rape designed to contain new pesticide residues since they have been modified to be herbicide-tolerant (mostly to Roundup) or to produce mutated Bt toxins. The debated alimentary chronic risks may come from unpredictable insertional mutagenesis effects, metabolic effects, or from the new pesticide residues. The most detailed regulatory tests on the GMOs are three-month long feeding trials of laboratory rats, which are biochemically assessed. The tests are not compulsory, and are not independently conducted. The test data and the corresponding results are kept in secret by the companies. Our previous analyses of regulatory raw data at these levels, taking the representative examples of three GM maize NK 603, MON 810, and MON 863 led us to conclude that hepatorenal toxicities were possible, and that longer testing was necessary. Our study was criticized by the company developing the GMOs in question and the regulatory bodies, mainly on the divergent biological interpretations of statistically significant biochemical and physiological effects. We present the scientific reasons for the crucially different biological interpretations and also highlight the shortcomings in the experimental protocols designed by the company. The debate implies an enormous responsibility towards public health and is essential due to nonexistent traceability or epidemiological studies in the GMO-producing countries. Keywords: GMOs, Health risks, Pesticides, Regulatory toxicology, Animal tests Introduction and Context Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References The debate on the safety of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) used for food and feed is still very lively throughout the world, more than 15 years after their first commercial release [3-5]. Huge social, economical, and political issues have been raised. Unfortunately, although some stakeholders claim that a history of safe use of GMOs can be upheld, there are no human or animal epidemiological studies to support such a claim as yet, in particular because of the lack of labeling and traceability in GMO-producing countries. As a matter of fact, 97% of edible GMOs among cultivated GMOs (soy, corn and oilseed rape or canola, excluding cotton) are grown in South and North America [6], where GMOs are not labeled. All these plants have been modified to tolerate and/or produce one or more pesticides [6], and contain therefore such residues at various levels [5]. Most are Roundup residues (it is a major herbicide used worldwide and tolerated by about 80% of GMOs). Other residues are from modified Bt insecticide toxins, which are directly synthesized by the GM plants from transgenes. The debate on health risks is first of all based on theoretical considerations, and second on the knowledge derived from mammalian experiments fed on GMOs. The latter experiments are not systematically performed, and can be part of non-compulsory regulatory tests. The scientific question about edible GMOs health risks amounts to how they have been tested and interpreted, especially in mammals. Nutritional tests with weight, bone mass, and for instance milk or meat production are available, as well as acute toxicological tests with recombinant proteins, in vitro digestibility of transgenic proteins, and limited compositional analysis among other data. However, the possible chronic side effects of pesticide residues are not scientifically assessed, whereas these edible GMOs were modified in order to either tolerate or produce such residues in the first place. In addition, unpredictable metabolic effects, such as metabolic interferences, or direct or indirect insertional mutagenesis consequences cannot be excluded. All these possibilities have been summarized (Fig. 1). For instance, insertion of the transgene in varieties producing Cry1Ab toxin caused a complex recombination event, leading to the synthesis of new RNA products encoding unknown proteins [7], or/and to metabolic pathways variations which caused up to 50% changes in measured osmolytes and branched aminoacids [8]. The frequency of such events in comparison to classical hybridization is by nature unpredictable and new proteomic technologies have shown to be effective in evaluating the potential collateral effects due to insertional mutagenesis [9]. In order to analyze subchronic or chronic toxicological signs, it is more informative to focus on studies including numerous blood and organ parameters. Most of these are 90 day-long feeding regulatory trials on rats eating GM corn or soy. The raw data issued by the companies particularly attracted our interest. We obtained the said data by Court order and lawyers (since the data were previously kept secret). We recently published a second batch of new assessments [1, 2, 5]. We reviewed all of them, and they revealed significant statistical differences (~9%) which concentrate mostly on kidneys and livers, and are considered both by the companies and the official approval committees as irrelevant where the safety of GMOs is concerned [10]. In fact, behind this scientific controversy, what is at stake really is the commercialization (or not) of GMOs around the world, and overall, the rules of scientific assessment that could be modified. The present rules for GMO risk assessment are mainly based on the concept of substantial equivalence that was accepted by OECD in 1993 and then included in the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) regulation (Part IX : Foods Derived From New Plants Varieties) : « In most cases the substances expected to become components of food as a result of genetic modification will be the same as or substantially similar to substances commonly found in food such as proteins, fats and oils, and carbohydrates. » Such a concept is subjected to debate in the scientific community because it is based on a simplistic view of living cells. In particular, it overlooks all the interactions between genes, and the direct or indirect potential metabolic consequences of insertional mutagenesis. This implies that GMOs are insufficiently evaluated. We realize that the requirement for longer and more detailed regulatory tests would reduce the profitability of GMOs, but protecting mammalian and human health seems even more essential in our views. Some official agencies authorizing GMOs consumption eventually decided not to take into account our published results [1, 2], and in particular the agencies defended Monsanto’s opinions on their websites. Here, we review the arguments of the scientific debate for data interpretation: It is well known that there were different opinions over the interpretations of the significant differences in the blood and organs of rats eating GMOs in comparison to controls, especially in our counter-analyses on the raw data of three toxicological tests carried out by Monsanto, the results of which we obtained by Court decision [1, 2]. These tests pertain to three GM corns owned by Monsanto: MON 863 and MON 810 which are continuously producing a rootworm and a corn-borer insecticide, respectively, and NK 603 Roundup-tolerant maize, which contains Roundup herbicide residues. Although the European legislation requests transparency of health and environmental impacts in regulatory tests, the raw data were first considered as confidential by biotech firms. It is also true for all other commercialized GMOs, especially those varieties producing or tolerating one or several pesticides, for which the data should be made public. Fig 1 Proposed mode of actions of agricultural GMOs and/or associated pesticides on health. Almost all GMOs disseminated in the environment are plants, namely soy, maize, cotton, and oilseed rape (1995-2010). Their genetic and phenotypic modifications are only herbicide tolerance and / or insecticide production (modified Bt toxins) in more than 99% cases. Thus they can be described as pesticide plants. Consequently, two major health risks are described: (1) due to mid or long term side effects, brought by new pesticide residues in food or feed, and directly due to the new genetic characteristic. These residues can be from herbicide(s) absorbed by tolerance (Roundup residues in more than 90% herbicide-tolerant GMOs) in most cases, or from new modified insecticide Bt toxins, mutated or truncated in all insecticide-GMOs. (2) Insertional mutagenesis linked to the genetic modification, or post-genomic metabolic interferences or derivations. These are direct or indirect less specific effects independent from the toxicology assessment of the transgene product. These unexpected possible consequences cannot be approached by gross substantial equivalence studies without metabolomic analyses. They can be invisible on the plant phenotype, but still able to induce long term toxicity after consumption, specific to each genetic transformation. The possible combined effects between all these impacts cannot be excluded, inducing chronic pathologies after regular consumption. Only long term testing (more than 3 months in mammals) could answer these possibilities. Thus, regulatory agencies must adapt their methods for health risk assessments of agricultural GMOs, taking into account associated pesticides and their formulations. They should also approach combined effects at different periods of life and on several generations, to be complete, overall when a new food/feed concerns billions of people without traditional knowledge of its consumption. (Click on the image to enlarge.) Debate on the shortcomings of the experimental design Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References All regulatory 90-day rat feeding studies with GMOs have been constructed on the same scheme. The shortcomings of the experimental design are underlined below and summarized (Table 1): a) Too small number of animals were studied: 10 individuals were measured for biochemical parameters out of 20 per group. This might be enough for long-term experiments, but not over such a short period of time, as naturally a small number of effects or only effects of low amplitude were induced, to be compared to a slowly developing chronic pathology. This kind of protocol could result in low power statistical tests and therefore too many false negative results (for example, it could be misleading, and induce by mistake the research worker to reject a possible effect of the consumption of GMOs). b) Too many control rats: the number of controls is four times higher in the regulatory tests that have been used all over the world to authorize the main GMOs. Such an imbalance between control and treated rats may conceal the visible effects. Out of 400 rats, there were only 80 eating GMOs (and only 40 biochemically analyzed), thus 4 groups of 10 animals, with 2 dosages (11 and 33% GMO in equilibrated diet), and 2 blood analyses per group (after 5 and 14 weeks). Both sexes were equally represented. But overall we judge the 320 “reference animals” too numerous in comparison to the treated ones. As only half of the rats were studied on all the biochemical and blood parameters, this means that the decisions were made only on 40 rats eating GMOs and assessed from a group of 400 animals, over 90 days. c) Too many control treatments: the 320 non-GM fed animals were treated in fact with 7 different diets which were supposed to represent a variability of the possible regimen. Six constituted the so-called “reference” groups with feed not demonstrated as substantially equivalent. Moreover, only two dosages in the control groups were chemically equivalent to the GM diets that were made with the isogenic maize or a corn close to the GM variety. But two doses are insufficient to study any dose-related effect. d) The rat was the only mammal fed with GMOs for 3 months. e) The regulatory test was only performed once for each GMO, which was then supposed to be eaten all over the world. f) The duration of 90 days is the longest test on file and only on young adult mammals; it was not long enough to observe chronic effects. g) The lack of developmental, reproductive as well as chronic or multi-generational tests is the subject of a heated debate for the GMOs currently available on the market. This experimental protocol from Monsanto was accepted by several official committees, first confidentially. This procedure is a point of controversy not only with Monsanto, but also with the agencies that have published opinions on our work [1, 2, 5]. We will refer to their opinions collectively as Monsanto et al. in the following, unless otherwise specified, to simplify the reading of this paper. Table 1 Insufficiencies of currently used tests, criteria and interpretations; proposed improvements for GMOs health risks assessment. We reviewed here the current protocols used by industry and regulatory committees in commercialized agricultural GMOs. The feeding trials described in column 1 were performed in order to obtain GMOs commercialization, via regulatory agencies. The improvements proposed (column 2) will adapt these tests to modern knowledge in toxicology, in order to avoid the main consequences of overlooked risks (column 3). Critical parameters and interpretations Present regulatory assessment Improvements proposed Main consequences if improvements not applied Number of animals / group 10 measured on 20 /group At least 20 rats for 3 months, 10 or more for 24 months / group Low statistical power Number of controls versus treatments Too many reference or control groups (320)/ 80 GMO-treated only Avoid to multiply completely different control groups Risk of concealing statistical effects Species Rat only (in mammals with blood analyses) Rat and other(s) species such as Mice / Rabbit Results too much species-specific Replication of toxicological test Only once At least two Reproducibility, Reliability not proven Length Subchronic (3 months) Chronic (24 months) + developmental + transgenerational Missing long term, fetal or transgenerational effects Doses 2 doses 3 doses Missing dose response relationship Type of treatment GMO GMOs with/without associated pesticides Confusion between mutagenesis / pesticides effects Food composition Substantial equivalence More detailed composition with specific pesticides residues and metabolites, adjuvants Missing potential contaminants and combined effects Norms followed OECD 408 strictly or less OECD 408-453 with other details Lack of hormonal sex specific data for instance Number of blood analyses 2 measures only after 5 and 14 weeks At least 3 the first trimester Missing punctual phenomena Biological interpretations Dose-effects “Dose-related”: proportional effects only taken into account with two doses ! Non linear effects to be studied (U or J curves) Risk to avoid endocrine, carcinogenic, immune long-term effects… Biological interpretations Sex specificity Effects studied only if occurring in both sexes Sex specific effects to be studied Risk to avoid endocrine-specific effects Biochemical modifications linked to histopathology Necessary Not always possible in 3 months Risk of false negative results Amplitude of effects studied Effects inside of undefined historical norm of the species not studied Any statistical difference with controls to be studied Risk of false negative results Final biological conclusion for an effect Should be plausible for the regulatory committee Necessity of more objective criteria: ex. lengthening of the test Major risk of subjective interpretation Debate on statistical tests Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References If false positive effects are the concern of Monsanto et al. as well as of Séralini et al. [1, 5], we have underlined that false negative effects may be also amplified by the poor experimental design that curbs enough statistical power. Moreover, the fact that EFSA and HCB asked for a revision of statistical methods [13-14], implies that the accepted regulatory tests are insufficient for the time being, at least at this level. Therefore, as such, the experimental protocols admitted by Monsanto et al., even if advocated by the OECD, do not appear capable of offering statistical proofs of health risks nor of their absence except for highly noticeable health risks. Monsanto’s tests should have been rejected by the international committees, if this argument fits. Only early warnings of toxicity can be suggested now, as already indicated [2]. Moreover, it has to be noticed that Séralini et al. [1] and Spiroux de Vendômois et al. [2] did not try to test mathematically, as a whole, whether there had been a “GMO effect” on all the parameters: dosage, duration and sex. It was rather established by sex, duration and dosage, a list of all the parameters differentially expressed between control groups, and groups fed with GMOs. Note that Monsanto (raw data of MON 810, MON 863 and NK 603) do not calculate more, and even less, since the 11% dosage is not considered, if the highest dose of 33% is not different. Contrary to what Monsanto claims, the number and the nature of the signs we emphasize are not really different from the ones used in their reports. However, our revealed signs are classified by organs and take into account the differential effect related to dosage and sex. The difference between Monsanto’s conclusions and ours is, again, about the biological interpretation rather than mere statistical points. However, statistics can be discussed. The use of the ANOVA by Monsanto should not exempt them from doing an assessment of the power of the tests. At no time in the company studies this aspect was highlighted, although it is essential. As soon as a statistical test is used (a Student t test as well as an ANOVA), the result interpretation can only be based on the one on the p-value that allows an estimation of the risk ? of a Type I error when the null hypothesis is rejected, and on the other hand on the statistical power 1-? that allows an estimation of the risk ? of a Type II error, when the null hypothesis is accepted. This power allows the estimation of the effect size. It is not because a hypothesis is not rejected that it is inevitably true. We know that this test power depends on the sample size, on the Type I risk ?, and on the effect size we want to pick up. In Spiroux de Vendômois et al. [2], the only example of the power calculus in a Student test is just an illustration and not a demonstration of the fact that Monsanto’s power tests are weak, even if they are true. The statistical power is never calculated for any of their ANOVA. As a matter of fact, in their regulatory reports Monsanto et al. use an ANOVA without statistical power for each parameter, both for each sex and duration (week 5 and 14). Even if there are ANOVA calculations, they lead to the implementation of a large number of statistical tests: 4 times the number of parameters (4 = 2 sexes x 2 durations). Also in this case of multiple comparisons, the study of the false positives is not specific to the Student t test, and is not treated in these Monsanto’s studies. Our goal while reviewing Monsanto’s data [1, 2] was to make a list of all the differentially expressed parameters. Thus it was essential to suggest a study of the false positives. The FDR method, accepted with Benjamini-Yekutieli’s correction, makes it possible to take into account the potential dependency between the parameters. Also, we disagree the argument which claims that what is picked up by this method (but still statistically different) is inevitably obtained “by chance” (developed by some experts or agencies, Le Monde, 10/02/2010). The outcome still needs to be interpreted biologically. The normal use conditions of the Student t tests are not always satisfied: small samples (equal or fewer than 10) in subchronic tests, normality’s rejection by the Shapiro test and non homogeneity of variances. Thus we did apply nonparametric methods. But, even if Monsanto do make it clear (in all the “materials and methods” section of their reports of the raw data) that they do the same, there is not any application of it in their statistical test data: for each parameter, each duration, each sex, only the ANOVA is indicated, even when the data normality or the variance homogeneity is not satisfied. And yet, the physiological interpretation is supposed to be based on these results. Consensus on statistical effects Not only does Monsanto admit major statistical differences for some parameters, but most of our results demonstrate huge discrepancies [2]. Significant and non-significant effects correspond to Monsanto data (94-96% of the total, depending on the GMO, deduced from Table E p 723 [2]). In the comment of our study, EFSA [15] admits the presence of visible statistical effects in the results « The significant differences highlighted by Spiroux de Vendômois et al. have all been considered previously by the GMO panel… ». Ergo, the major scientific disagreements are only about the biological interpretations of the statistical effects. There remains a discussion about the weight curves for MON 863 treated rats which we have published [1], but that were not in the original report of Monsanto. The French committee CGB criticized the failure to take into account the individual variability for each rat in our first paper [1]. However, even when taking that into account, they admitted a significant effect on the female weights’ variations of the GMO-fed group in their report on our work, which was used by EFSA, but still disregarded in EFSA’s opinion. The authorities should then have reacted to such a serious sign. We certainly consider this as a shortcoming. Divergent biological interpretations Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References Therefore, the biological interpretations become crucial after a global statistical consensus. Two possible issues here: either a demonstration of innocuousness (Monsanto et al.’s opinion), or disturbing disruptions that should be followed by longer tests before approvals (in our opinion). There are at least two arguments used by EFSA [15] and Monsanto et al. in general, to reject our study [2]. First, they said that our data were only presented in percentages and not in absolute values. On the contrary, we indeed published absolute values to give an idea of the crude effects for MON 810, NK 603 [[2], pp 724-5] and MON 863 [[1], p 600]. However, it does not change the results in any way. Secondly, the parameter values in our studies are compared to the controls and references (boxes and double boxes in the tables), contrary to what was claimed in EFSA’s official opinion. In addition, biological interpretations strongly diverge between us and Monsanto et al., on several key-points. We have previously developed this debate, at least in part, in two reviews [5, 10], and suggested improvements in regulatory tests: relative to transparency, length, with a duration corresponding to the lifespan of animals (2 years for the rat in laboratory for instance, as is done for some pesticides and drugs). It has become essential to organize counter-evaluation. EFSA and other national official committees have accepted to recommend the commercial release and consumption of these GMOs, based on Monsanto’s own tests and interpretation. The main differences between their biological conclusions and ours, following statistical differences in biochemical and organ parameters, are listed below: a) For the record, we would like to state that besides the controversy on the shortcomings of the protocol design outlined above, any early sign of difference should be collected in a table to get a global picture of the animal physiology after GMO consumption. It is really impossible within 90 days, with a single experiment worldwide and such a small number of rats, to get a consistent toxicological picture, as requested by Monsanto et al., and to consider the disturbing signs they indicate. This is a major point, because we are concerned by possible chronic pathologies. Some effects may not be of major amplitude as yet; however, some are. For instance, the increase of the hearts’ weight by 11% in males for NK603, or 40% increase in plasmatic triglycerides in females eating MON 863 (together with a pre-diabetic profile), could be considered as enough to trigger a moratorium. As a matter of fact, Monsanto did not repeat their studies or made them take place over a longer period of time. They even routinely prevent independent reproducibility by refusing to supply the material needed [12] and by blocking access to confidential data, as they did by bringing the case before the Court of Appeal in Germany [1] (however, they lost the case). b) The statistical differences are often considered by Monsanto et al. between the GM-treated groups and the so-called “historical standards of the species” which are undefined, as the also undefined “normal range”. This approach makes it possible for them to consider larger variations as normal, for subjective reasons. The differences have to be considered first with the closest control group. It is only afterwards that it might be possible to compare it with experimental reference groups (Monsanto et al. did that first) receiving a non-equivalent regimen (for instance where salts or sugars are concerned). For the record, we wish to underline that the reference groups are still too numerous in comparison to the treated rats. c) The significant effects are taken into account by Monsanto et al. only when they are similar in both sexes. This is not acceptable, since by the current knowledge [5] chronic pathologies, as well as the endocrine disturbances or some cancers, are usually sex-related and not proportional to the carcinogen dose taken over a short period of time. The data specificity of the parameters changing and depending on sex has just been admitted in Monsanto’s answer to our study ([16], p. 12). d) For Monsanto et al., the absence of dose-dependent effects is a reason to overlook the significant differences. This is also unacceptable, simply because, for instance, the potential endocrine disrupting antagonistic actions need to be taken into account [17]. Moreover, it has to be underlined that dose-dependency cannot be studied only with the two-dose study presented to the authorities by Monsanto (11 and 33% of GMO in the diet). e) Since anatomo-pathological lesions or plasmatic biochemical disruptions could arise long after the beginning of a treatment, it is not necessary to establish correlations between these statistical differences and histopathological findings (overall within three months) to conclude on a disturbing sign, despite what Monsanto et al are claiming. In addition, histological slides and embedded organs are the property of the company, and were not double-checked by official committees or independent authors. We ask for an official counter-analysis, in particular of the male kidneys in these studies, that concentrate more than 43% of all disrupted parameters in a meta-analysis of all published data on commercialized GMOs [10]. We already know that during the MON 863 study, Monsanto highlighted anatomic signs of “chronic progressive nephropathy” on GM-fed male rats’ kidneys. However, Monsanto did not see these signs as being noteworthy due to the fact that, according to them, they were well known to occur in old Sprague-Dawley rats. This explanation was then publicly repeated by the president of the CGB, the French evaluation committee for the GMO in question. But these rats were only 5 months old, and still quite young at the end of the experiment. Oddly enough, these anatomo-pathological signs on kidneys were not noticed during the studies on MON 810 and NK603 maize. Yet the rats were the same age and from the same strain. f) The chemical composition of food/feed is an important indication. However all insecticide toxins/herbicide residues/unintended or unknown metabolites (due for instance to insertional mutagenesis or new metabolites) are not assessed; thus the substantial equivalence with non GM products is not a proof of innocuousness. g) A bias for biological interpretations could also be seen in the fact that the regulatory toxicological tests were presented and commented for the authorities only by the companies developing industrial products, and this has been the case, for at least the last fifty years. Few studies have been conducted by independent groups such as Malatesta et al. [17-21] who found ultrastructural alterations of hepatic cells of mice that had eaten Roundup- tolerant GMOs. Finamore’s study, which focused on an insecticide-producing variety, suggested gut and peripheral immune response to GM crop ingestion [22]. No industry-funded studies suggest potential side effects of GMO consumption. It is a well-known problem; for instance in the bisphenol A controversy, the meta-analysis of all studies performed showed that none of the industry-funded studies showed adverse effects of bisphenol A, whereas 90% of government funded ones showed hazards at various levels and various doses [23]. A proposition for studies conducted independently from companies to tackle this issue has been made to the Council of European Ministers by some of us [24]. Conclusions and perspectives Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References Controversy on biological interpretations is a usual way of advancement in science. It would however have been beneficial for the acceptance of biotechnologies by the public at large, to close this scientific debate by longer, more detailed, and transparent toxicological tests on GMOs, and in particular twenty years ago when the most widely grown GMOs were still experimental. We wish to reassert that our work does not claim to demonstrate the chronic toxicity of the GMOs in question, especially since it is based on the data originating from insufficient tests that were accepted by regulatory authorities and Monsanto et al., a fact for which we are not in any way responsible. For the regulatory authorities, as well as Monsanto et al, these tests prove chronic innocuousness for mammalian and human public health. And they claim it is not essential to demonstrate the GMOs innocuousness. This again raises the same issues and consequences. We have revealed the inefficiency both of these tests and of their statistical analysis and biological interpretations, for the various reasons detailed above. However, some of the in vivo 90-day tests are not performed any longer today to get worldwide commercial authorizations, especially for GMO with “stacked events” (i.e., producing one or several insecticides and tolerating one or two herbicides), and this is even more seriously inadequate since the so-called “cocktail effects” are not taken into consideration. The same controversy took place (February 2010) in India, in relation to the authorization process for a transgenic eggplant that produces a new Bt insecticide. This authorization was based on three-month tests on three mammals and other animals for shorter times, which presented significant biological effects after this GM consumption [10, 25]. The same arguments were used in the debate in India. But in this case, the government decided to take the time to study chronic health effects, following our expertise, and therefore to implement a moratorium [26]. In the present case, we wish to underline that the commercial GMOs in question contain pesticide residues, some of which have been demonstrated as human cellular endocrine disruptors at levels around 1000 times below their presence in some GM feed [27]. Such Roundup residues are present in more than 80% of edible cultivated GMOs. This does not exclude other possible effects. As a conclusion, we call for the promotion of transparent, independent and reproducible health studies for new commercial products, the dissemination of which implies consequences on a large scale. Lifetime studies for laboratory animals consuming GMOs must be performed, by contrast to what is done today, like the two-year long tests on rats for some pesticides or some drugs. Such tests could be associated to transgenerational, reproductive or endocrine research studies. And moreover, shortcomings in experimental designs may raise major questions on other chemical authorizations. Acknowledgements We are grateful to the administrative and scientific councils of CRIIGEN for fruitful discussions and to Herrade Hemmerdinger for the English revision of the manuscript. References Top Introduction and Context Debate on the shortcomings of… Debate on statistical tests Consensus on statistical effects Divergent biological… Conclusions and perspectives Acknowledgements References 1. Séralini GE, Cellier D, Spiroux de Vendômois J. New analysis of a rat feeding study with a genetically modified maize reveals signs of hepatorenal toxicity. Arch Environ Contam Toxicol. 2007;52:596-602 2. Spiroux de Vendômois J, Roullier F, Cellier D. et al. A comparison of the effects of three GM corn varieties on mammalian health. Int J Biol Sci. 2009;5:706-26 3. Domingo JL. Health risks of GM foods: many opinions but few data. Science. 2000;288:1748-9 4. Domingo JL. Toxicity studies of genetically modified plants: a review of the published literature. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr. 2007;47:721-33 5. Séralini GE, Spiroux de Vendomois J, Cellier D. et al. How subchronic and chronic health effects can be neglected for GMOs, pesticides or chemicals. Int J Biol Sci. 2009;5:438-43 6. Clive J. Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2009. ISAAA Brief. 2009;41:1-44 7. Rosati A, Bogani P, Santarlasci A. et al. Characterisation of 3′ transgene insertion site and derived mrnas in mon810 yieldgard maize. Plant Mol Biol. 2008;67:271-81 8. Manetti C, Bianchetti C, Casciani L. et al. A metabonomic study of transgenic maize (zea mays) seeds revealed variations in osmolytes and branched amino acids. J Exp Bot. 2006;57:2613-25 9. Natarajan SS, Xu C, Cregan P. et al. Utility of proteomics techniques for assessing protein expression. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol. 2009;54:32-6 10. Séralini GE, Mesnage R, Clair E. et al. Genetically modified crops consumption at large scale: possible negative health impacts due to holes in assessment. Environ Sci Pollut Res. submitted 11. Support to Gilles-Eric Séralini and his co-authors in respect of scientific controversy and counter evaluation. CRIIGEN. 12. Waltz E. GM crops: Battlefield. Nature. 2009;461:27-32 13. EFSA. Statistical considerations for the safety evaluation of GMOs. EFSA Journal. 2010;8:1250-59 14. HCB. Avis sur le dossier EFSA/GMO/NL/2005/22. France: HCB, French Council of Biotechnologies. 2009 15. GMO Panel deliberations on the paper by de Vendômois et al, 2009. EFSA. 16. Monsanto. Response: de Vendômois (Séralini) et al. US: Monsanto. 2009 17. Moslemi S, Seralini GE. Estrogens and Breast Cancer: Aromatase and Activity Disruption. Trends in Breast Cancer Research. 2005:101-127 18. Malatesta M, Caporaloni C, Gavaudon S. et al. Ultrastructural morphometrical and immunocytochemical analyses of hepatocyte nuclei from mice fed on genetically modified soybean. Cell Struct Function. 2002;27:173-180 19. Malatesta M, Biggiogera M, Manuali E. et al. Fine structural analyses of pancreatic acinar cell nuclei from mice fed on genetically modified soybean. Eur J Histochem. 2003;47:385-388 20. Malatesta M, Baldelli B, Battistelli S. et al. Reversibility of hepatocyte nuclear modifications in mice fed on genetically modified soybean. Eur J Histochem. 2005;49:237-42 21. Vecchio L, Cisterna B, Malatesta M. et al. Ultrastructural analysis of testes from mice fed on genetically modified soybean. Eur J Histochem. 2004;48:449-454 22. Finamore A, Roselli M, Britti S. et al. Intestinal and peripheral immune response to MON810 maize ingestion in weaning and old mice. J Agric Food Chem. 2008;56:11533-9 23. Vom Saal FS, Hughes C. An extensive new literature concerning low-dose effects of bisphenol a shows the need for a new risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect. 2005;113:926-33 24. 2008. Lepage Reports: CRIIGEN. 25. Jayaraman KS. Transgenic aubergine put on ice. Nature. 2009;461:1041 26. 2009. Effets on health and environment of transgenic (or GM) Bt Brinjal: CRIIGEN. 27. Gasnier C, Dumont C, Benachour N. et al. Glyphosate-based herbicides are toxic and endocrine disruptors in human cell lines. Toxicology. 2009;262:184-91 Author contact Corresponding author: Prof. Gilles-Eric Séralini, Institute of Biology, EA 2608, University of Caen, Esplanade de la Paix, 14032 Caen Cedex, France. Phone +33 2 31 56 56 84; Fax +33 2 56 53 20; Email: Received 2010-7-5 Accepted 2010-9-24 Published 2010-10-5 @Melinda Miller: I couldn’t believe it when I read Monsanto’s non-peer-reviewed ‘criticism’ that you recommend of the peer-reviewed de Vendomois study–Monsanto is taking refuge in the argument that these toxic effects were not biologically relevant! This term is not scientifically defined by Monsanto and is meaningless. See –for more information. It will be of no use to people who suffer toxic effects from eating GMOs to be told that though they may be ill, their condition is not biologically relevant/meaningful! In science, an effect is either statistically significant or not. The toxic effects found in Monsanto’s studies were statistically significant but those GMOs were approved anyway. And now Monsanto argues that they are not biologically relevant… It would be a joke if it were not so serious. I have to chuckle at the links to videos featuring Jeffrey Smith. Try real science rather than the JS variety. A discussion of Mr Smith’s ‘science’ Anyone who obejcts to Jeffrey Smith as a person or as an authority can just read the peer-reviewed scientific studies his books cite and decide on the merits of the data themselves. Just as I don’t have to like or approve of a news anchor in order to listen to and take note of the news. On GMOs, the evidence alone, as referenced in his books, is convincing — these products are risky. @brian Logical Fallacies 101: Genetic fallacy In general, this is the attempt to assert or reject a theory by citing its origins as either reputable or disreputable. The usual expression of this fallacy is “consider the source!” Thus it becomes a form either of argumentum ab auctoritate or of argumentum ad hominem, depending on whether one seeks to verify or disprove the theory by this method. This type of argument follows the form: If P then Q Q is true P is false Therefore Q is false When the origin of evidence or of premises is relevant to the reliability of the same, then asking a hearer to “consider the source” is valid. Judges in courts of law, for example, routinely reject as unreliable the testimony of any witness who has demonstrably lied about a point that matters in the case at hand. The facts that such a witness is asserting might still be true, but they cannot stand without corroboration from another, more reliable witness. But when corroboration is established, the origins of a conclusion, however tainted, become irrelevant. As an example, Gregor Mendel established the genetic theory that remains current today, even though Mendel’s experimental technique was badly flawed, and he even stands accused of falsifying key data. But succeeding scientists, using accepted methods of verification and statistical assessment, have achieved results consistent with this theory. Thus the theory remains valid even though Mendel’s original presentation was fraudulent. Any attempt today to discredit Mendel’s theory on account of Mendel’s sloppy methods would be an example of a genetic fallacy. @Vierotchka “in general, this is the attempt to assert or reject a theory by citing its origins as either reputable or disreputable” Because those opposed to GM would never do that of course \U0001f609 Rather than reviewing evidence and then arriving at a conclusion Smith cherry picks data to support his anti-GM view. Another word for this is ‘misinformation’. @Vierotchka “in general, this is the attempt to assert or reject a theory by citing its origins as either reputable or disreputable” Because those opposed to GM would never do that of course \U0001f609 Rather than reviewing evidence and then arriving at a conclusion Smith cherry picks data to support his anti-GM view. Another word for this is ‘misinformation’. What the comments have done, has shown many are skeptical of the genitically modified. Maybe its time to look carefully and wait. What the comments have done, has shown many are skeptical of the genitically modified. Maybe its time to look carefully and wait. @brian I can’t speak for others, but I certainly don’t do that – it seems though that you certainly do. Let’s pretend GMO is safe to eat. The business is still risky for poor farmers making the extra investment and commitment to these proprietary seeds. Crops can still fail and dependence on credit to establish an artificial ecosystem that is not as miraculous as advertised will further drive the desperately poor to the brink. @Melinda Miller: I take you up on this; please do send me some contact information. You will find my details on the Net, I live in Luxembourg. Thanks! @Rene Prieto Polymeris: I agree with comment. Amazing to me how people will ignore replicated studies and proof over more than 2 decades of testing that have proven there are no bad affects from biotech crops. Kudos to the scientists who are trying to have their voices heard. Biotechnology is one of the tools we will need to produce enough food to feed a growing population with shrinking land base. @Vanessa Kummer – it does not advance the cause of science to pretend that all the peer-reviewed studies showing harm to lab animals fed GM crops, as well as studies showing unintended environmental harm, simply do not exist. Please begin by checking out the studies collected in this document: There are plenty to choose from! @Vanessa Kummer your claim that GM will be needed to feed the growing population assumes that GM crops yield better than non-GM. It would be nice to know your sources for that, as there’s plenty of evidence showing that GM yields are lower than non-GM. Or perhaps you think that GM crops will be better at tolerating drought? Er no, conventional breeding does better at producing drought-tolerant crops. As farmers, it has been our experience that we are getting better yields along with using less chemicals, less fuel and less trips across our ground. Overall, biotech has helped us farm more sustainably and more efficiently. There are also traits in the pipeline that will be drought resistant, as well as varieties that will have increased yield. Utilizing science and technology is making food production better. @Vanessa Kummer GM crops typically have lower yields than non-GM need more pesticides and there are already drought-tolerant non-GM crops so who wants to wait for the GM varieties? So maybe you are an unusual case. No surprise here, she was spotted as pro-GMOs since beginning “EU chief scientist a GM evangelist” (06 December 2011) She also worked with Gates FOundation between 2009/2011 (it’s written in her CV on BEPA website)… No surprise she will defend GMOs the same way Gates & Cie do. @Anne Glover – good find, well done! This woman represents a an industry whose aggressive tactics to further it’s Market Hegemony are nefarious in and of themselves. Her claims of “Science” to support her view of GMO “Harmlessness” are facetious at best. She could have as well helped draft the 2012 US Farm Bill, which is nothing but backdoor financing for the same industry. Keep an eye on the Monsanto-DuPont Civil Litigations-the “dirty laundry” is already starting to get wrung out. Perhaps she should just resign, go back to being a Bio-tech lobbyist, before she convinces an EU industry to kill innocent people with her trite assurances. I am seriously fed up with my tax money being spent to pay people like Glover to propagandise for the GM industry though the infamous “third party advocacy” public relations technique (where you put your marketing message in the mouth of an apparently independent “expert”). The industry has its own huge PR budget without paying for this woman to churn out unsubstantiated claims to promote GM foods. Well said, Mr Russell. In the EU, at least you have labeling. In the US, the Farm Bill for 2012-2017 is set to finance Bio-tech through subsidies and payouts-without informing the tax payer. Right now, the industry is using every mouthpiece it can “buy” to demonize the very idea of labeling. It’s a blatant case of “double-dipping”, not to mention using some of the most facetious arguments I’ve ever heard: “It’ll hurt [poor people/farmers/food stores], deprive consumers of food options…and they get worse from there. I think Consumers the world over are waking up to this nightmare. Ms Glover is a pathetic shill-and one has to take a harder look at whoever “opened the door for her”. Janet Glover said “There is no substantiated case of any adverse impact on human health, animal health or environmental health, so that’s pretty robust evidence, and I would be confident in saying that there is no more risk in eating GMO food than eating conventionally farmed food,” Wow… this statement clearly show that Janet Glover is a liar. More and more people are noe beginning to understand that the technology behind the living GMOs that are used outside closed laboratories, is nothing else than FRAUDULANT SCIENCE. The GMO scientist and the companies behind e.g. genetically modified food-plants, are not in control of the technology. They have no clue about all the different unintended changes in the plant DNA, and they are not able to control the spread of the patented genes from the GM-crops to conventional and organic crops. Note that 99,99 percent of all cultivated GMO-crops are either plants that are genetically modified to tolerate high doses of super-toxic herbicides like Glufosinat Ammonium (which by the way is so toxic that Norway authorities has banned it), and Roundup (or Glyphosate)…. which should have been banned many years ago, or they are genetically modified to produce toxic proteins in all parts of the plants. These properties has NO benefits for the environment, groundwater, livestock or consumers. How is more poison in our food, water and environment ever going to be a benefit? Note that in EU, more than 42 GMO plants are alloved in food and feed. Allmost all of these are either sprayed with the super-toxic herbicides mentioned above, and/or they contain the toxic CRY-genes which makes the hole plant toxic. None of these (probably) GMOs are properly tested (see lecture below by professor Gilles-Eric Seralini): GMO Risk Assessments Based on Bad Science – You the Guinea Pig (video): Here is a few examples of what has went totall wrong with the GMOs that Janet Glover is lying about: GM-Soy linked to health damage in pigs – Danish Dossier Jerry Rosman, An Iowa Pig Farmer, lost many of is pigs because they was poisoned by the GM-plants they ate (video): GMO eggplant confirmed to be toxic: GMO Bt cotton linked to livestock death in India: Monsanto’s herbicide Roundup linked to birth defects in Argentina’s agricultural areas: Syngenta Charged for Covering up Livestock Deaths from GM Corn: Dr. Huber on how Glyphosate and GMO destroy soil quality – affecting health of plants, animals and humans (video): Here are some facts about those GMOs and patent on seeds: The Future of Food (video): Seeds of Freedom (video): Genetically modified food – NOT needed to ensure food supply (video): @Tore B Krudtaa At least try and get the name right. *Anne* Glover. Next, read again what she said “There is no substantiated case of any adverse impact on human health, animal health or environmental health” Notice the word ‘substantiated’? It means that, while there are plenty of anti-GM blogs and articles, none of them stand up to scrutiny. @brian Are you following the Goebbels tactic of repeating the same falsehood so many times in the hope that it becomes accepted as truth? As has been said before on this thread, and quite apart from the “anti-GM blogs and articles” that you cite, there are MANY peer reviewed published studies showing harm from GM foods. The fact that Glover either doesn’t know about them or is denying their existence, doesn’t make them go away. These studies are cited in this section of the report GMO Myths & Truths: @Melinda Miller: I take you up on this. Please do send me some contact information. You will find my details on the Net, I live in Luxembourg. Just Google my name and country together. Thanks! @Pietro Fornara I wish you luck in attracting “Melinda Miller” to a meeting. Her preference for Monsanto marketing claims over peer reviewed published data by independent scientists suggests at least a possibility that she may fall into this category of ‘person’: Mercola.com has a multitude of scientific articles explaining the hazards of GMO (OGM)s and the pesticides they require. Farmers in Argentina have successfully sued Monsanto. Farmers in the southern US state of GA have had to leave acres fallow because pig weed has mutated and is so strong it will break the disks on plowing equipment. John Dalli, EU Commissioner apparently doesn’t have the best of reputations in Malta for other reasons. He is pro GMOs. The EU Chief Scientific Advisor, Anne Glover, was a professor of biology at Aberdeen in Scotland. In 2011 Monsanto gave them $10 million dollar BBISP grant via Filipe Luis Savio of Brazil through their ESALQ-USP Researcher program. Part of that will also include Cornell. Now she says, no scientific evidence against GMOs. @Peter Russell Go away and read again what Anne Glover said. There is no *substantiated* evidence against GM. Let’s pick one piece of ‘science’ at random from the link you posted shall we? “Rats fed GM tomatoes developed stomach lesions (sores or ulcers).” Which references, by way of ‘proof’: But, oddly, doesn’t reference this: See the problem? Smith did a reply to this Academics Review piece here: Gives a pretty good argument for trusting the FDA scientists over Academics Review. There is no reason to cite such a flawed piece of reasoning as in the Academics Review piece. I am not sure why we are expected to believe ‘Academics Review’ (a smear site against J Smith which is emphatically not peer reviewed) over and above the real findings of harm discovered by a biotech company (Calgene) on its own GM tomato. Not that we trust the findings of GM companies as a rule, but when even they find their own GM foods are dangerous we’d better sit up and take note. However, I hope readers of this page will simply look at the FDA scientists’ documents and decide for themselves – since presumably Calgene’s actual studies, like most industry studies on GM foods, are not available for public scrutiny. I see Vanessa Kummer, who posted enthusiastically here on GM is chair of the United Soybean Board, which ‘partners’ with Monsanto. How depressing. @brian If Glover wants to convince us that there is no “substantiated” evidence showing harm from GM foods then she must rebut not only the initial Calgene Flavr Savr study, but every one of the studies showing harm from GM foods cited here: Unfortunately Glover doesn’t cite evidence for her assertions. I have a suggestion…let Ms Glover go on an independently monitored GMO ONLY diet for the next six months, then be checked over by an independent physician before, during and after the experience. I suggest she might have an epiphany from the experience. She likely WON’T do it-she KNOWS better, yet expects the working class EU Citizen to do this permanently. Leadership by example? @R Andrew Ohge: A toxicologist who was at one of the first meetings where the GM industry and government representatives met to decide how GMOs should be regulated, said the topic of how GM foods could be tested for human safety arose. At this meeting the toxicologist said the only way to do it was to do long term animal tests first (these are not done by industry or required by regulators anywhere) and if no red light appeared, then do a carefully controlled long-term study on human volunteers, whose diet would have to be carefully controlled. After he said this, there was silence in the room. Then an industry person said, “But if we did that, the people fed the GM diet might get sick and then they would sue us.” Another silence. The topic was never raised again, either in that meeting or in any further discussions between industry and ‘regulators’. If it wasn’t that this IS such a serious topic, I’d be rolling around on the floor. The irony of the “Industry Person’s” statement is bouncing off the walls. (Come on, Ms. Glover-you KNOW you’re not going to live forever, anyway-right?) Iil n’y a aucun intervenat qui un’idèe precise de ce que c’est l’agriculture. Presque la totalitè n’a aucune idèe de ce qui veut dire amelioration des plantes. Re: comment that GMO crops require less use of pesticides/herbicides. No. That is true for, at best, only a few years, after that, herbicide, et al use is about the same as “conventional”/non-GMO crops. In addition, we now have RoundUp resistant weeds and it is likely that Bt will no longer be a useful pest control for organic farmers, now that Monsanto has included it in one of its GMO crops. Constant exposure to Bt will shorten the time that the targeted pest is killed by the Bt, or continuous exposure (instead of only occasional) will hasten evolution of resistant pests. In addition, Bt affects other beneficial or non-harmful insects–a problem known for years when the NFS in the US was spraying Bt to “eradicate” gypsy moths in the national forests of the Pacific Northwest. It harmed populations of other flying insects as well. Because so many weeds have become resistant to RoundUP, Monsanto is introducing new GMOs that utilizes one of its older (and possibly more toxic) herbicides. And in any event, traditional breeding, particularly on a small or local scale (i.e, by farmers, by land grant universities in the US) allows development of varieties that did well in specific local environments. Monsanto, BASF, et al DON’T maximize their profits that way, they do so by promoting a “one size fits all” GMO corn or wheat or whatever, or at most a few varieties. How does that benefit farmers, small farmers, and gardeners who want to minimize herbicide/pesticide use or grow organically? It doesn’t. Don’t they have as much right to grow their food, their crops as Monsanto does to sell its product? And what happens when heirloom corn is contaminated w/Monsanto GMO corn pollen? Does Monsanto then own the heirloom genes too? So far, it seems that Monsanto says yes. See the Schmeiser litigation in Canada As I see it , cutting through all Pro or Contra arguments . It is not SO much a case of whether genetically modified foods are safe and good to eat . The real question is whether we want to have Monsanto and like companies operation in European agriculture . The answer is NO NO NO !!! We have seen how they operate in the US ; like a Mafia that can completely destroy a farmer and his farm . Wind blow contamination may occur on a neighbouring farm and Monsanto claims the sole right to planting and crops on that farm too . The farmer may eventually win his case in the law courts , but at great expense . It is said that farmers may have an increased crop innitially , but in a short time crops will markedly diminish . @azurite I agree with your comment except that there is abundant evidence that GM crops do increase pesticide use (herbicides are technically pesticides), not just make it equivalent to what would be used on a non-GM crop – see data cited here: @David Barnaby Monsanto et al’s Mafia-like control of farming is indeed terrible, though I would say this aspect is in addition to the health and environmental hazards posed by GMOs — see these links for what they’ve done in Brazil with soy farming: @Peter Russell In his reply Smith backs down to admit he doesn’t know what caused stomach lesions in rats but the damage is done: ‘A feeding study was done on rats using GM food – rats developed lesions’ his audience is left with that headline and the implication that one event caused the other. Unfortunately this Post Hoc argument is played out so many time in anti-GM propaganda ‘Cattle fed on GM crops – cattle died!’. It’s guilt by association, not science. @brian wrong — Smith doesn’t ‘back down’. I quote: Chassy & Tribe (GM promoters): 3a. Rats might have been injured . . . by accidental administration of test material into the lung instead of the stomach. 3b. Gastric lesions can be caused by acidosis brought on by fasting. Smith: Neither of these arguments address why 7 of 20 females fed GM tomatoes had lesions while the controls, reared under the same conditions, did not. Furthermore, since the rats did not fast but ate as much as they wanted, why would they throw in this irrelevant point (if not to obscure the truth)? Not exactly backing down. However, if you would like to introduce a hypothesis that in this controlled experiment, something other than the GM food tested caused this dramatic ill effect, you will have to do your ownn experiment to prove that. That is unfortunately how science works. Farah Rukh Thank you for your posts re the Brazilian Soy beans . There have been programs one Russian TV English language channel RT.com on the serious problems US farmers have had with Monsanto , just the same and crippling law suits . A few years ago a farmers homemade pesticide was banned in Thailand as being dangerous , but containing all the herbs and spices that Thais eat every day . Eventually word came that the Prime minister Abhist’s father had shares in Monsanto . I suspect that Thai farmers are still making their own brew . @brian It often seems that GM defenders would like to rewrite the rules of science. Calgene’s tests on its GM tomatoes, like all such toxicological tests, are designed to find whether feeding the GM food has any toxic effects that are different from feeding the non-GM equivalent diet. If toxic effects are found, as in this test, where the GM food group had stomach lesions, and the non-GM fed group had fewer or no lesions, then you have to conclude that the GM food created that effect. If you suspect a confounding factor caused the effect, you have to do another test to confirm or exclude that confounder. It is really quite simple. Calgene’s first test found what it found; its second test was different in design and so does not rebut the findings of the first. I hope Anne Glover is reading this exchange — as someone who defends scientific method and GMOs, perhaps she would like to tell us her own analysis of the Calgene GM tests. It seems to me that the problems of using GM plants fall into one of 3 categories. 1. Potential effects on animal life: plants inevitably produce a chemical – maybe only an insect pheromone. It would take decades of in depth observation to access whether or not the eating of this plant affected the health of either human or animal. Plus what are the effects on natural predator populations. They home in on the pheromone hoping for dinner but find only famine conditions. 2. Potential effects on surrounding plant/weed life: most plants are self pollinating or accept pollen only from members of the same species. However, even without accidental pollination, some plants especially good weeds, will readily accept pollen from members of the same family, perhaps even phyllum. This means that the GM genes can and do turn up in both non GM crops, and other plants in the vicinity – pollen ascending in thermals can travel hundreds of miles before descending to pollinate totally naive plants. 3. Farmers using GM seed are forced to buy new seed each year; rather than use the more cost effective centuries old practice of retaining a part of their harvest for the next seasons seed. The use of GM seeds does not save on pesticide applications, just on topical applications for the specific pest targetted by the genetic modification. Plus it discourages farmers from using the age-old practice of dilution of disease susceptible species by intercropping and good stubble management. @Elisa The problem is taking what appears to be a poorly designed test out of context as somehow proving harm caused by GM food. We know that an earlier study (when rats were fed the tomatoes without stomach tubes) caused no harm, we know that when the test was repeated some rats in the control group had lesions too. But subtleties like this are lost when reported by many anti-GM bloggers. A Dangerous Woman in the back pocket of the powerful global Biotech Cartel… I hope you have all read this preposterous interview with Anne Glover: EU science advisor: ‘Lots of policies are not based on evidence’ | EURACTIV “Q. Can you give an example of where you feel evidence has been partially used, or not used? A. It would apply to how we implement regulations around genetically modified organism (GMO) foods, because we have so much very robust evidence, and the precautionary principle is no longer relevant with GMO foods or crops. If we look at evidence from [more than] 15 years of growing and consuming GMO foods globally, then there is no substantiated case of any adverse impact on human health, animal health or environmental health, so that’s pretty robust evidence, and I would be confident in saying that there is no more risk in eating GMO food than eating conventionally farmed food. I would say there is risk in eating food and that’s what people forget. Eating food is risky, most of us forget that most plants are toxic, and it’s only because we cook them, or the quantity that we eat them in, that makes them suitable. Q. So you would say GMOs are safe? A. The bottom line for me is that there is no more risk in GMO food than conventionally farmed food, it has nothing to do with genetic engineering, so if you decide that you want to implement the regulations in such a way that you want to prevent the use [of GMO food] then that has to be talked about, and people need to be clear why you have rejected it.” PLEASE READ: YOUR FOOD, YOUR HEALTH: Latest on BiotechAg, GMOs, Pesticides, Chemicals, CAFOs, BigAg | You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 8 (updated: Macedonia expects a key Commission report to be tabled today (16 April) to confirm that the country is ready to begin accession negotiations. In the meantime, a UN mediator has tabled a new proposal for a name that would be acceptable to Greece. The latest suggestion of UN negotiator Matthew Nimetz is that the country to be called “the Upper Republic of Macedonia,” media reported. Seen from Athens, the official name used by Skopje – the Republic of Macedonia – is an open challenge to the Greek region of Macedonia (see background). The Greek veto over the name issue prevented Macedonia from joining NATO in 2008 and from starting accession negotiations, even though the country achieved candidate status in 2005. According to reports quoting the Nimetz proposal, the new name would be used during the negotiations on Macedonia's accession to the EU, which would take at least seven to eight years. After that, a referendum would be held and the citizens of Macedonia would be asked to vote on the two issues: joining the EU and changing the name to the Upper Republic of Macedonia. Also, Macedonia would enter an amendment into its Constitution that would read as follows: From the day the Republic of Macedonia joins the EU, the international name of the country will be the Upper Republic of Macedonia and will be used in all languages ??- except in official languages ??of the country. Greece has not reacted to the new proposal. According to some reports, Athens would like the geographical determinant “Upper” to be placed before the word 'Macedonia', the name being “Republic of Upper Macedonia”. According to reports, Skopje and Athens are expected to state their position on the proposal in the coming days and reach an agreement by mid-May. But Macedonia still runs the risk that with Macedonia. In November, Bulgarian President Rossen Plevneliev said that his country cannot grant an EU certificate to the actions of the government in Skopje which is systematically employing “an ideology of hate towards Bulgaria.” Macedonia has also tried . The most striking example is the film “Third halftime” that depicts wartime Bulgarians as fascists, despite the Bulgarian government's decision to refuse Nazi orders to deport the 48,000 Jews in the country to concentration camps. A Macedonia-sponsored in Brussels recently infuriated Bulgaria. The manuscripts, which mention Bulgaria and the Bulgarian language only, have been highlighted as Macedonian manuscripts. Four rounds of talks were held between Sofia and Skopje in an effort to agree on series of measures for improving relations between the two countries. According to information obtained by the Bulgarian national radio, Bulgaria is not satisfied with the results obtained. Macedonia declared independence from the dissolving Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991. The country is an ethnic mosaic. Slavic Macedonians represent the largest group (64% of the population). Ethnic Albanians are the biggest minority (25%), with Turks (3%) and Roma (1.9%) also present. Of all the hurdles standing in the way of Macedonia's EU accession, the so-called name dispute with Greece appears to be the biggest. Seen from Athens, the official name used by Skopje – the Republic of Macedonia – is an open challenge to the Greek region of Macedonia. In reprisal, Greece vowed to veto Macedonia's participation in international organisations, including the EU, until the issue is resolved. EURACTIV Poland: I am sorry to tell that this country should not be called Macedonia at all; the historic Macedonia of King Philip II and his son Alexander the Great was an ancient Greek Kingdom that can be traced now for most of its part inside the area where the north part of Greece is. The only part of this Kingdom sited out of Greece and inside FYROM is that of the area of Pelagonia that is some 10% of it. The rest of this country (FYROM) has nothing to do with this historic Kingdom. The name Macedonia was chosen by Marshal Tito on behalf of them and was used as a base for the various claims he raised over areas of the neighbouring countries. It’s sad that this little state carries on with these claims. Ancient Macedonians were Greeks. For the following centuries many peoples settled in the area and even a century ago you could find Greeks, Bulgarians, Turks, Albanians, Serbs, Jews, Armenians etc. but no “Macedonians” at all nor any of the people living in the area ever identified for himself or for his family to be “ethnic Macedonian”. As long as they insist on usurping parts of the Greek and Bulgarian histories and maintaining territorial claims over areas of these countries, any compromise in name will not be enough to smooth any tensions of the area. I do not agree at all the previous comment. The name of Macedonia was chosen by Tito only because it was the name of this area, this name who crossed the centuries for more than 2000 years. Gorgija Puleski – 1818-1893 – was the first modern writer who wrote about Macedonia as a nation (1865). Indeed, ancient Macedonians were more close to greek population than slaves ones invading the area in the 7th century. But after 2000 years of movements and mixtures of population around the Mediterranean, especially in the Balkans and in this area, only the present situation must be considered. The situation is that Macedonians from RdM considere themselves as Macedonian and it is like that since generations and generations. There is Macedonia as a greek province and Macedonia as an independant Republic. It is enough clear for everybody and none agreement will change this reality. In Reply To Dimitri From Athens: There are no ancient Macedonians living in the modern world; there are however people across the world from The United States to Australia, from Skopje to Athens who still feel they have a link to this extinct civilization. You might disagree with this assertion, but that is their base human right of self determination. There are Ancient Macedonian sites in both The Macedonian and Hellenic Republic; from the towns of Styberra (Prilep) and Heraclea Lyncestis (Bitola) in Macedonia to Pella in Greece all have an ancient and shared history. However does this mean that only those with this perceived undiluted link back to the ancient world can call themselves Macedonian? Of course not, thousands of years and many historical, religious, ethnic and cultural groups have contributed to what it means to be a Macedonian in a modern world. As with all the peoples of Europe from two thousand years ago The Macedonians evolved; assimilation, annexation, liberation, and migration have all had a profound effect on what makes up a state; religion, region, culture, language, and ethnic identity. The entire world is and always has been in a state of constant flux; whether it be the movement of people, language or ideas, definitions of all have changed throughout time. In the same way that The Hellenic Republic didn’t magically appear on January 1st 1822, The Republic Of Macedonia has also had a long road to self determination and independence. Reference to Tito, 1944 and the proclaimed People’s Republic of Macedonia ignores all those who had previously strove for and in many cases died for the right to their identity and recognition. For example what of the complex history of the Ilinden Uprising and resulting Krushevo Republic of 1903 (a decade before Greece gained a region called Macedonia)? A rebellion led by the Internal Macedonian-Adrianopolitan Revolutionary Organization with its motto of “Macedonia for the Macedonians”. This expression of national identity amongst others is often ignored by those who would simplify the complex history, culture and identity of a vast region and peoples. I am English, a Briton, living and working in the UK and yet by the strange paradigm expressed in your post because I don’t speak the language of or trace my roots back to The Beaker people or Celts of ancient Britain I can not express my modern cultural, ethnic, or national identity. My human right of self determination is seemingly negated by your very specific narrow minded view of what determines identity. Nationalists across all borders of the Macedonian situation do a disservice to those they claim to represent by trying to monopolize all for their paradigm of what it means to be ‘Macedonian’. Unfortunately questions of identity, borders & statehood are far more complicated than just brief individual periods of history. Respect UK Dimitri,I will repeat once more what one of the founding fathers of US said in 1783. “The project of setting at liberty the whole country of ancient Greece,Macedonia and Illiricum,and erecting independent Republics in those famous seats,however splendid it may appear in speculation,is not likely to be seriously entertained by the two Empires,because it is impracricable.The Greeks of this day,although they are said to have imagination and ingenuity,are corrupted in their morals to such a degree,as to be a faithless,perfidous race,destitute of courage,as well as of those principels of honor and virtue,without which nations can have no confidence in one another,nor be trusted by others.” John Adams,one of US founding fathers,in a statement written back on July 14th 1783 to the first US State Secretary Robert Livingston,clearly states he wanted to see Macedonia as erll as Greece independent from Ottoman rule. Unfortunately for some Balkan nations including Macedonia,it was the French,Prussians (Germany) who decided who gets independece. The US president was well aware the French and Germans were pushing their own agenda on the Balkans. Adams then goes on to describe the Greeks as people…230 years later they are still described in the same way,”corrupted in their morals to such a degree,as to be faithless,perfidious race,destitute of courage…”. Modern Greeks clames of ancient connection is nothing but a myth.There is no blood line to the ancient Athenians.Greece is a mixture of different people. In the book”The Empty Cradle of Democracy”by Alexandra Halkias on page 59 we read”Until the begining of the 19th century,the average inhabitant of Greece called himself or herself Roman(Romios),and the (Greek) language Romeika”. “The Nineteeth Century and After”by James Knowles on page 645 we read”But who are the Greekd?At least five-sixth of them,if not more, are Christian Albanians of the Orthodox gaith,Albanians in sentiment and in language,who because they acknowledge the Patriarch of Constantinopole are declared to be Greek in point of national consciousness.” In the book”Greece in the Twenieth Century”edited by Theodore A.Coloumbis on page 25 we read”Greeks are those who speak Turkish but profess the Christian religion of their ancestors.” The consciousness of the modern Greek of his classical ancestry is a product of Western scholarship. Dr.Thomas Arnold,the founder of the school Ethos in 19th century in England,suggested that “fabricating Greek legents will profoundly improve the English image,even more than the Greek image”. Prince Otto who wrote the Greek history,has done exactly what Dr,Thomas Arnold has suggested.Prince Otto as the first king of Greece,he fabricated history for his own glory,not that of Greece. Greeks have no morals,as president Adams said back in 1783.Greece has history that is fabricated,they are ashamed to admit the mixture of people who make up the population of modern Greece by insisting they have a lineage to ancient Hellens,because it is easier for them to fabricate and claim the Macedonian history. Isocrates and Demosthenes who witnessed the battle of Chaeronea in 338 BC clearly are making the distinction between themselves and the Macedonians as two different ethnos. Here is how Gandeto responded about the art of fabrication,”You fellows are true students of the art of manipulation.As a matter of fact,you have not only mastered the art of manipulating the text but have brought it to another level;the level of the highest distinction.Like so many other things that you Greeks have invented,this,the art of fabrication,is deservedly yours”. A note to EURACTIV on the role of the Bulgarian government in the Holocaust in Macedonia- the Bulgarian government did save the Bulgarian Jewish population, but they deported 97% of Macedonian Jewry (7, 144 men, women and children)to their deaths. See the following posted by the US Holocaust Memorial Museum: Upper republic ? What does that mean ? We have heard of socialist republics, federal republics, peoples republics, but an “upper republic” is a first time invention. It’s obviously an attempt by Nimitz to say to Skopia “here, take this and may be it will help you to cheat with the name” ! Republic of Upper Macedonia, is a possibility though, accurately reflecting the geographical and ethnic facts. We have all learned that any attempt by anybody to talk about the history of this subject is an own goal. It kills negotiations and it kills the possibility of “peace and friendship”. That happens because it is a history of wars. Therefore the only possible solution is for Skopia to abandon it’s present position, namely “all of Macedonia belongs to us” and for Greece to also abandon the position of “Vardarska”. If we don’t find a solution through negotiations then we just carry on exchanging hostilities, which is not a very useful thing to preoccupy ousrelves with. The real issue, from 1990 to this day, is one of international terminology and the sense of dignity of the populations here and there. It’s not a war issue like it used to be. So the real issue is what the Americans and Europeans write in the books/almanacs, what announcements they make is sports events, cultural events and other situations like that. Some of them acting out of spite and out of a natural sense of ill will say “let’s pour some oil over the fire” and act in such a way as to make the dispute escalate. You want an example ? G.W. Bush in 2004. Soon as Greece elected a moderate government under mr. Karamanlis and a solution was on the cards, through bilateral negotiations, he decided to play the madman theory card and extend recognition. It’s certain that 50 years from now in America when young republicans are asked about GW Bush they will say “he was never one of ours – he was a democrat !”, before of course their teacher gives them the lesson about former presidents. @ Marc Morell Only that Pulevski died in Sofia, believed that Macedonians are Slavs that their language was a Bulgarian dialect and that Macedonia should be united with Bulgaria. Also he fought for Bulgaria. The whole case is rather clear. Pulevski was a Bulgarian poet born in Galicnik now FYROM. I don’t think him to be the best example of “ethnic Macedonian”. If he lived today he would claim for his Bulgarian identity. You say: “The situation is that Macedonians from RdM considere themselves as Macedonian and it is like that since generations and generations”. Not quite and not so dear Marc. This is not a matter of plain self-identification but a matter of usurpation of history and culture that makes the basis in turn for claims over the territories of their neighbouring countries. As you say: “…ancient Macedonians were more close to greek population than slaves ones…” Actually ancient Macedonians were Greeks. The denial of their Greek identity from the side of the FYROM authorities, despite all the historic facts is plain forgery and is used as I said just above as the basis of their territorial claims. @ JCUK First of all the descendants of the ancient Macedonians exist. These are the Greeks of Macedonia who are present through all the historical periods in the area and proudly accept and declare their Macedonian identity in total and not partially; ancient Macedonians were Greeks and were declaring this whenever it was necessary. If the guys from FYROM want to claim themselves as Macedonians I have no objection as soon as they accept that they are Greeks too. They could be incorporated to Greece if they like or remain an independent state as they are now this would be up to them. However to accept a Macedonian identity as deriving from the antique times and refuse its Greek character is simply an act of forgery. The link of acceptance of a national identity has to comply with the facts and not to depend on forgery which means that you are wrong enough here; this is by no means any matter of the basic human right of self-determination but just an act of plain forgery. “Thousands of years and many historical, religious, ethnic and cultural groups”, as your words are, are not enough to alter the nationalities for all the past centuries, Bulgarians have remained Bulgarians, Turks remained Turks, Jews remained Jews and Greeks remained Greeks in the area of Macedonia. As I have told you in the past, if I go to Munich and have a love affair with an indigenous lady and get married and make a family with her, our children won’t become Bavarians but German-Greeks likewise the people of Macedonia never melted form Serb-Albano-Greco-Bulgaro-Turk-Jewish-Armeno-more, to become “Macedonians”! Regarding the rest of your posting. The Internal Macedonian-Adrianopolitan Revolutionary Organization was a Bulgarian Organization and the Ilinden Uprising was prepared and created by Bulgarians too. Also the motto of “Macedonia for the Macedonians” was preferred because as Hristo Tatarchev, founder and first leader of the IMRO said: “We couldn’t accept the position for “direct joining to Bulgaria” because we saw that it would meet big difficulties … It passed through our thoughts that one autonomous Macedonia could easier unite with Bulgaria subsequently …” Whether you are English or not is not a matter of concern here; as you probably know personal examples are of not much value in the impersonal internet, yet regarding me I have no objection you to take any identity you like provided it won’t contradict any identity of other peoples. Rgds @ Peter Glad to see Peter that you are here “alive and kicking”! In short: “in 1783”! Some update is required urgently Peter. I have already said this before. What Alexandra Halkias says does not make any proof about anything; Romios at that times or Greek now the identity is exactly the same. Isocrates and Demosthenes did not make any the distinction between themselves and the Macedonians as two different ethnos. At any case they express their personal views to the matter and personal views are of no value to such a case. What is of importance here, are the proofs of the national identity of the ancient Macedonians and all these prove that anc. Macedonians were Greeks. (I have stated them in the past). Gandeto is a clown (excuse me). Fabrication can be reversed; reality not! If he finds his shallow arguments about the antique Macedonians reversed by several Greeks then he fabricates history; not us! Dimitri, If you do not want to recognize the Macedonians of RoM as Macedonians, it is your problem. From my side, I affirm that none “modern Greek” can ensure that he has more than 50% of Greek roots. You are thinking that you are coming directly from the Ancient Greeks, ignoring all the movements of populations during the previous centuries. Stupid ! We are only discussing on this topic today, only because, strong of your position in EU, you have the possibility to impose to the Macedonians from RoM YOUR interpretation of the History. I hope that in the next future, everybody will understand that Greeks are distorting the truth of their own history like they are doing in political and economical fields. Marc @Marc Are you from Skopia ? Your name is not even slavic. What is all this garbage ? When we have continuity of language and continuity of religion, what other ingredient is there to make a nation be a true nation ? Apart from all this ethnic purity rubbish you people are tweeting is hitler rebirth stuff and utterly useless. What about peaceful coexistence and mutual respect ? But those are no good values it seems … Marc, I spoke about “Greek Identity” and not about Greek roots, trunks, branches, leaves or fruits. I think it’s more stupid for someone to read what he/she wants to read from what is been actually written, don’t you agree dear Marc? Also to be honest I find it naive to consider that Greece is bullying with the use of veto but not the other countries that belong to NATO or the EU and have made use of this facility several times so far. Further to the above I think it is fairly improper to make any connection of politics and economy with history. Politics and economy provide the field for deception (unfortunately) and this is what has been done repeatedly several times by most countries, history however is the outcome of historic events, facts and proofs and any distortion can be detected and reversed. If you think that the history of Greece is the outcome of a forgery I am keen on learning about it. @Dimitri: Pulevski was a Macedonian and ethnic Vlach. Many macedonians ethnic or not were emigrating towards Bulgaria/Serbia at that time, some running from repressions some pursuing cultural development. I happen to have the luck to know all the Pulevski’s blood line, most of his descendants, while one of them being my own wife. They are all so proud of their grand grand father, and despite the fact that are not ethnic Macedonians, they tend to understand themselves as patriots and nothing less than Macedonians. I don’t know where you digged out that information you state above from, but, please be kind to excuse me: that’s utter bs! Dimitri,and all of you so called”Greeks”if there are any. A quote from Polybius”speakers of same language”with which the Greek fellow wanted to use as proof that Ancient Macedonians spoke the same language as the Ancient Greeks and thus,they must be classed as Greeks”. Now,these same Greeks are burning the candle from the other end and want to argue the point but this time,since it suits their purpose,in the oppsite direction:namely that”linguistic criteria are not only insufficient to denote ethnic nounces in the Balkans,but they can be misleading.A lesson learned:you cannot burn the candle from both ends and expect not to get burned.”Gandeto was right with above statement.Gandeto furthere says;”Again,refering to your original statement above,I could not have said it better myself:you fellows are true students of the art of manipulations.As a matter of fact,you have not only mastered the art of manupilating the text but have brought it to another level;the level of highest distinctions.Like so many other things that you Greeks have invented,this,the art of fabrication,is deservedly yours.You have won the argument hands down.” Dimitri,Here is what those who were there in 338 BC said,that you are refusing to accept the true history. We need to refresh our memories about Isocrates letter to Philip where he Isocrates makes clear that; “Philips ancestors understood that Greeks cannot submit to the rule of a monarch,while NONE Greeks actually cannot live without such a regime.People of non-kindred race-was the term used by Isocrates to describe the Macedonians.Obviously,and with added emphasis, he is highlighting the distinction between the Macedonians and the Greeks.” Taking the epitaph composed by Demosthenes,clearly makes the distinction between the Macedonian and the Greeks.”The distinction between Greeks and Macedonians is explicit;”how striving to safeguard the holy soil of Hellas-we died”They were striving to safeguard the holy soil of Hellas from the attack of the Macedonians.Ancient Macedonians were not Greeks(in Badians words,paraphrasing)they did not considered themselves to be Greeks,nore were they so considered by the ancient Greeks. Arrian tells us that as far as Greece is concerned”It had been enslaved by the Macedonians”. Dimitri,Gandeto,John Adams and many more are right,Greeces history has been changed many times to suit the time of the day.Greeks are corrupted in their morals to such a degree,as to be faithless,perfidious RACE,destitute of courage…”. John Adams assertion of the Greeks,fits your denial about Isocrates and Demosthenes.That is typical Greek mentalaty. Dimitri,you are not Greek,your name does not indicate that.Have you checked your ancestry?you will be surprised my friend,there are no Greeks with ancient blood. The most absurd comment I ever read from you is,the Macedonians in occupied Aegean Macedonia are the true ancient Macedonians.Political borders will never separate people of same ethnicity,you are making same absurd statement as former Ambassador of Greece in the Republic of Macedonia,where she said”tourists don’t know in which country they are,the people here and in Greece look alike,eat same food,drink same,and have same culture.”She was right,you cannot separate people of same identity by borders. This page belongs to the EU. It’s purpose is I suppose to allow us to chat but also to help the EU gauge public opinion. It appears what those folks are going to see is the rantings of some professional conflict enthusiasts rather than the arguments of people genuinely concerned in the settling of the dispute. Of course such individuals exist on both sides of the frontier. While their methods and actions had some explanation during the cold war and while perhaps those methods and actions was impossible and indeed impractical to challenge in those days, the continuation now in progress is an act of shameful stupidity. Are you guys going to take weapons and do the shooting or are you hoping to send someone else ? Are you fishing around for imbeciles to catch votes or not ? But I ‘m afraid this is what is happening. I argue in favour of both sides preserving their dignity and thereafter march forward towards economic progress but such arguments hit a stone wall, again and again. Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists The true diplomatic war going on between Macedonia and Greece right now is not over the history, eventhough it seams like the history issues are in the focus of it. Trough history though each side side is trying to claim victory whilst the most valuable throphy will be the “identity” although it seams deliberatly thrown in shadowand not discuissed that much as the “holly name” and the “right to claim history”. It is all about what can be materialised, and history is not one of those material things. The “identity” though opens new possibilities. Many, many people that lived in “Greek Macedonia” has been banished from Greece after the partitioning of “Macedonia Region” in 1913. Those banished “slavs” as some may regard them are now well established citizens in many western countries forming quite remarkably organize alliances. They are well active pursuing their justice in Strasbourg Court of Justice and many other places, claiming back the lands illigaly taken out of them by the greek state and looking forward to recognishion of cultural exodus practised upon them by the greek state. For Greece, to be the tragedy even grater, the repressed “slav” population living in “Greek Macedonia” formed it’s own political party within Greece, that stands for representing the “Macedonian” minority in Greece. Of course this is furiously denied by Greece, for which there is no such thing as “Macedonian” minority as they tend to propagade that the Macedonians are Greeks and threfore this “slav” organization is denied by the Greek state as false. Now lets forgot history for a moment and lets focus on today. The real stakes here are more than Alexander the Great. Solution for the name issue will be accepted by Greece, if, and only if, among with negates the identity as well. Changing the name must officialy incorporate changing the identity and no less. Greece is aware that if the identity “Macedonian” is accepted and recognized as a separate ethnicity in the Balkans, that will trigger domino efect of events. First Greece will must to recognize the “slav” minority as “Macedonian”. Seccond, many members of that minority that currently afraid to proclaim themselves as such, will step out and join forming quite vast number of them. Third, the newly formed and recognized “Macedonian” minority will seek to be represented in the Greek parlament trough their own political party, directly interferring in the internal affairs of the Greek state. Fourth, Greece will have to then, to obey the european and human laws and to start to cultivate the new culture by incorporating the macedonian language in areas where the macedonian minority represents majority of the population. New schools and possibly universities teaching on macedonian will be required to reflect the current political situation, and Greece will have to fund them. Fifth, Greece will have to deal with the property claims of the banished once “slav” now fully recognized ” Macedonian” minority in Greece, and bear the historical responsibility and the financial burden carried by those mentioned above. You may stay and argue what some greek or macedonian or english or german or franch historian had said and what his/hers views have been regarding the macedonian question all they long and that wouldn’t change a bit. As a people we are all manipulated to think one way or another so we can unconsciously support given political agenda or another. Looking purely from a human perspective, Greece has some serious current humanic issues to deal with reather than blemishing upsurd historical stories now. We should focus on colonising other planets and not running back 2000 barbaric years back trying to prove and be proud of which was greater barbarian back then. To move forward though each one of us must recognize the basic human rights of the other, and understand that we were all born equal and we were all born humans. Drop all the political agendas and think sober for once at least. Greek, Macedonians and all other must know that denying your fellow human is like denying yourself. @Marianno Gorgeski All this is a bit of a lie of course, because if your country is Upper Macedonia, your ethnicity is also Upper Macedonian. In Greece nobody is discriminated against, whether he lives in Macedonia, or Corfu, or Peloponnese – except of course if you are black chance upon the Golden Dawn neonazis (the new fruit we have). But if you express hostile sentiments against Greece what do you expect ??? It’s yet another “legenda negra” of our times. Minority rights for those who want to hurt the country ! Go to any European country, England say. You will meet some hostile individuals but -I hope- hostility will not prevail and you are going to live happily with your new neighbours. But now start making noises against their country. You don’t go there because you like the country and want to become friends with the people, but to make noises and show contempt against the host nation. Well, the English will not stand for it. Nor will the French, or the Germans or the Russians. @Nick what do you have to comment out as I bit of lie in your favor? Do you think that you can disregard the Turkish population, the Albanian population, the Macedonian(“slav”) population living on Greek territory as a “hostile individuals” and just get away with it? My dear friend I completely understand you when you are trying to protect you country and nation, but you should not do that on the expense of other groups of individuals nor someone else should. We live in the 21st century, people are moving back and forth in and out. Even if assuming that there is no “slav” population in Greece, you cannot close your borders and not allow anyone to come in, and if they are already there not allow to proclaim their feelings. Living in a TRIBE-MANNER is not appropriate way in 21st century. We need to move forwards as a humanoids and not as a tribes! I’ve traveled in the North of Greece, the region you call with right, Macedonia, to be more precise Aegean Macedonia, and have the luck to find whole villages that consider them selves as Macedonians, but not the one you say “greek Macedonian” but “slav Macedonian”. Many of those people were 70+ years old. Do you think they’ve emigrated there few years ago in pursuit of happiness while they still feel young?!?!?! – Of course NO! – They were born there, as well as their grand-grand fathers were born there. They have and always had completely different customs than the greek population. They speak different language. What are those people, have they fallen from Mars maybe? @ Mariano Gorgeski An ethnic Vlach? So far to my knowledge being a Vlach responds primarily to their latin linguistic idiom and not to any ethnic entity. Do you have any link to advice about his Vlach identity? Anyway, may be a bs but no matter how much I searched I never got any text about Puleski was a Vlach. All of the internet sources I found claim him either as a Bulgarian or as an “ethnic Macedonian”. Wiki (English text) states that his mother tongue was the Galicnik dialect which is a Slavic dialect and thus has nothing to do with the Latin speaking idiom of the Vlachs (or Aromanians). Whatever, he spent his entire life by siding with the Bulgarian aspirations and attempts and supported the national objectives of the Bulgarians regarding Macedonia. According to his actions I still do not consider him the perfect sample of a Macedonian; he is more likely to be considered as a Bulgarian. @ Peter Dear Petrer, Nobody ever claimed such a thing; this text of Strabo (and not Polybius; it’s Strabo’s 7.7.8), is used to confirm the fact that Macedonians were Greek-speaking people and not as a proof about their national identity. Their national identity is verified through additional proofs apart from that of their mother tongue. Mother tongue alone is not enough to clarify someone’s national identity. The phrases from Isocrates’ letter addressed to Philip II, along with a couple of Arrian’s phrases, make up the only points that may bring some confusion about Macedonians’ national identity. However they are not significant either as the evidence about the opposite is overwhelming. Demosthenes’ texts are totally valueless, as he was an impassioned enemy of the Macedonians and his views are guided by his fanaticism and his strong emotions. Badian’s leaflet about “Greeks and Macedonians” is totally garbage. Apart from the points of Isocrates and Arrian I mentioned above, the rest of the “proofs” he presents are pure rubbish. Badian himself was humiliated during a meeting of Professors in History, held in Salonika as being totally ignorant of the case. To the claims of several Professors for the opposite he avoided defending his arguments. Gandeto & John Adams… Already have dealt about; not wise to repeat ourselves. Personal names do not clarify any national identity; Josef Goebels was not a Jew just because he was named “Josef”! Yet the name Dimitri is Greek deriving from ancient Goddess Demetra (or Demeter), Goddess of earth and agriculture. Dimitri Shostakovich was Russian anyway! Blood and ancestry in most cases, make a concern for the racists. More important than the blood is the acceptance of the ancient Greek heritage, that in most cases is an unbiased and natural procedure that counts several millennia now, through the ancient customs and traditions (eg the Carnival customs) that are handed over from one generation to another. @ Marianno Gorgeski People in Balkans (and elsewhere) had to leave their birth-places and become refugees in several cases Marianno. There is no point in looking back. The game is over. As simple (and hard) as that. @marianno I have every sympathy for people who chose to live in another country. The extremists like BNP, Lepin, Golden Dawn want to hurt them and make them feel sad. This is different. I ‘m an England fan. I was outraged when the Mexicans tried to implicate Bobby Moore in the stealing of a diamond ring and then went on to poison Gordon Banks’ food so he missed the match against Germany and we lost the world cup. And mr. Griffin comes forward and says to me “you don’t have pure nordic blood and your dna is not british so we will make you into soap-lampshade in our concentration camps”. But a hostile population is a hostile population. I don’t make them ! In America they bombed the twin towers. They were nazi just like Hitler we know them now and I don’t care if that is lexicographically correct. So that’s the difference. @ dimitri There are some minorities allover. Greeks in Albania-Skopia-Bulgaria. Skopians in Greece. Albanians in Greece, other than the recent immigrants. It’s natural because under the Ottoman empire those regions were united – under Ottoman rule. The Ottomans declined to grant them autonomy and human rights and even killed some of their own who were against the Sultan’s policy and supported the idea of autonomy in the Balkans. So after all the turmoil we now have the four neighbouring states of Greece-Bulgaria-Skopia and Albania. It’s not in their interest to carry on fighting and be disrespectful of one another. It is in their interests to coexist peacefully. @ Nick Poioi einai oi Alvanoi pou den einai metanastes; @dimitri Stin Pindo kapoioi ligoi ypirxan panta. Dear Athenian Robert-John-Alberto, why the Macedonian must be respectful of people who impose them to call themselves Fyromian, Skopjan, Vardarian ? @Marc Morell FYROM is the acronym chosen by the UN back in 1992. The offense is implied in the name. It’s simple. Our grand dad left us an estate. 50% to me, 50% to you. If I then go allover the place and say “my estate” you cry foul. Nick. Sugnwmh alla me mperdepses. Ti Alvanoi uphrxan sthn Pindo; Kai kait allo: Giati tous les penhnta penhnta; Oi progonoi afhsan mia klhronimia. ‘H thn apodexomaste ‘h oxi. Den mporoume na thn apodexomaste epilektika. ‘H einai Makedones ‘h den einai. Oi Makedones htan apodedeigmena Ellhnes. As analaboun to timhma. Oxi na to paizoun trela ekei pou den tous sumferei kai na ta 8eloun ola dika tous. @ Marc Morell The appellation “FYROM” is the mutually accepted name between Greece and your country as to allow your country the entry to some International Organizations for the promotion of peace, culture and athletics e.g. the UN. A prerequisite however for the entry to a group of countries with common interests (NATO, EU), is the abortion of irredentism against other countries, especially the neighbouring ones. As long as you claim e.g. Tsar Samuel to be Macedonian (instead of the correct that is Bulgarian), it is very unlikely that you shall ever manage to convince about your good will. Giati mou grafeis emena ellinika ? Htan kapoioi papoudes – tous exo dei. Ego apo th stigmi pou zousan eirinika den eixa provlima. 50 – 50 einai an logariaseis tis ektaseis ths Makedonias, ton Skopion kai ths Makedonias tou Pirin. Tora giati Boulgaroi kai Skopianoi ta espasan metaxy tous to 1947 trexa gyreve. Logo Tito oi men, cominform oi de. Na poun loipon Voreiomakedones na teleionei. Oute maxairia oute pistolia xreiazontai. Slavomakedones den theloun, giati pali antidroun oi Albanoi ton Skopion s’ afton ton oro. Koirie Papadakis,xairo tin glossa sou,kai xairo tin mitrikoi mou glossa tin Makedoniki.Oi glosses mas einai poloi diaforeteikais.We the Macedonians from occupied Aegean Macedonia are bilingual,and have the advantage of reading and understanding the Greek fabrications,and we read in Macedonian the true history.The Greek notion of Macedonians being Greek is absurd whether in ancient times or in the 21st century.Further,Greece clams we the Macedonians are Greeks,but Bulgaria clams we are Bulgarians,so did Serbia up to 1944.Can you imaging if Greece puts a clam on France being Greek,than the Germans say the French are Germans?Is there any precedent of such absurd clam,other than the Greek and Bulgarian have claimed?.All our four territorial occupiers signed the illegal partition of Macedonia in 1913.Why not one of you made a claim for the whole of Macedonia?Obviously,it did not belong to the occupiers.For our occupiers these lands were not theirs to begin with. Today,since the independence of one part of Macedonia,we are re-claiming what is historically ours,it is simple as that.Who the hell are the Greeks to deny our name that is ours for centuries,even before Greece and Bulgaria existed?. @peter As I said in the beginning, talking about these things = own goal. I want peace and friendship. That’s why I wrote here otherwise there have been some twenty thousand discussion boards on Macedonia and it is very boring indeeed. You say then let’s go back to 1913. Why not the Boer war also ? And why not cross the Alps with elephants again to attack Rome ? In post Byzantium history there were the various nationalities in the region. Fair enough. We don’t have to go before that, to the ancients and to the Romans. So what I ‘m saying is let everyone have their own piece of land in an atmosphere of mutual respect and understanding. I don’t claim the whole of Macedonian land (culture, heritage) -never did- and I expect and indeed demand you should do likewise. Some explanations are needed perhaps. What about the ancients ? But the ancients existed 2000 ago. What the heck can I do now ? What about before 1990 ? Before 1990 if one talked of peace and friendship the inland security was going to arrest him if he was of Athens and the KGB security if he was of Skopia. So mark a draw ! The questions are: We like peace or not ? We like friendship and economic cooperation or we like a war of words with no end ? Anyway, a bit of fun for my friends from Skopia: Dimitri,the real garbage of history has been invented by Greece.The refusal to accept Isocrates and Demosthenes historical facts is in itself shameless on the part of Greece.Who better can write real history than those who lived through that time?.The so-called professor who gathered signatures of other professors to advice President Obama is married to a Peloponisian women.This guy has never set foot in Aegean Macedonia,but being paid by the Greek government to write bullshit,even though he has not seen any ancient Macedonian Royal Tombs discovered as they have appeared.Every discovery in Macedonian territory,the Greeks have altered them to appear as they were written in Greek.The discoveries in the Republic of Macedonia do match that of Greek findings with one importent thing,in Macedonia artifacts are not altered to suit Macedonia.On the other hand,Greece alters all to look like Greek.The curator of Athens museum was fired for suggesting to display ancient findings as they appeared in those graves.A Greek professor of archeology Manolis Andronikos wrote”Macedonia should be considered the cradle of human history.” Papadakis,we all want peace,but I want to have the same rights as anybody else.Why are the indigenous Macedonian children are not allowed to learn their mother tongue,why are our names changed to sound Greek?In Greece the Macedonians are paying taxes as every body else,why is Greece denying them the same Human Rights?Why the Greek post office denied delivery of election material for the Macedonian party,even though they paid for postage?.We know the borders won’t change to before-1913,don’t anyone understands,when people are free and equal with the rest of the country the nation thrives?.This bullshit Greece has thrown against the Macedonian people is absurd and shameless. @peter We repress secessionism. Not the Slavs, not their mother tonque nor religion. And you say Macedonia is Skopia and Skopia is Macedonia. Some 5 million are against you as it happens on this one. Can’t work so end of story with you, because we reached bottom. “Republic of Upper Macedonia”? AND “Macedonia Greece”? Can we have two countries in the Balkans called MACEDONIA? Will this work? Will it create PEACE between Greece , F.Y.R.O.M and other neighbouring Balkan countries ? Or will it cause greater hostilities and a Catastrophe in the Balkans? Alot of question marks???? By dividing and recognising North and South Korea into seperate countries has this worked? “NO”! North Korea. South Korea. Are about to nuke eachother! Two countries in the Balkans claiming the name Macedonia is looking for trouble! @odysseas What you say is most certainly happening now. To a lesser extent if ROUM is adopted. If the solution is applied then the die hard elements here and there will continue to exist but their chances of creating any impression and cause problems again will be correspondingly diminished. This at least is what is hoped. North Korea and South Korea is different. There it’s one people but artificially divided after the armistice of 1953. It’s probably similar to Skopia and Greece as existed during the cold war and indeed before Tito’s withdrawal from the cominform. I don’t think anyone could look forward to a bilateral settlement in those days as there were other overriding strategic interests at play. The communist countries wanted to make Greece communist too, it was their main effort. Greece had to resist but in the process the extreme right wing elements -Papadopoulos- reached prominence and we had a lot of trouble with them in the years that followed. It proves that one stupidity is followed by countless other stupidities, whereas if we work together in peace we can only succeed. All you dear Greeks around. Fact: You have usurped half the “Macedonian Region” territory back in 1913 Fact: The dominant population living there was Macedonian, or as you may prefer “slav” Fact: Greece has practiced assimilating and repressing methods over the population, escalating with banishing large portion of it out of the country. Fact: Today there are also around 700.000 people that preserved their Macedonian, or as you may prefer “slav” customs, and understand them selves as Macedonians Fact: Greece in multinational Europe in 21st century is denying the existence of any minority. Don’t panic, we don’t want to claim back our territory of Aegean Macedonia you may have it as administrative unit there but you will must to recognize and respect the Macedonian minority. You will have to built them schools and ensure their incorporation in the state. You will have to recognize their language and allow them to speak and express them as freely as anywhere else on tho whole wide world. Face the truth, you have tried every strategy and used every tool on disposal to get rid of the Macedonians but they are still there. Accept the fact that you will must to coexist together with them. Greece crossed all lines, it must bear the responsibility now and act appropriately. @ Peter “…Greece clams we the Macedonians are Greeks,but Bulgaria clams we are Bulgarians,so did Serbia up to 1944…” Come on Peter! All three countries claimed that there are several ethnicities in this area; Serbs, Greeks, Bulgarians, Turks, Albanians etc. That’s all. Actually this is correct because in the Ottoman censuses of 1906 there are lots of ethnicities stated in detail (even Vlachs) but not even a single ethnic “Macedonian”. So what they say complies withthe reality too. Once again, the diasporic slavs, supposedly firm supporters of the fascist skopjian government of Gruevski, spill their slavic venom for misunderstanding their own history. And of course they think Greece is behind the slav majority misery created by their skopjian government! Greece has its own misery, no news there. But my concerns are for the poor, miserable, slav majority of skopjia. As this is imperative to repeat for the sake of my close Slavic and Albanian friends in Skopjia, I need to point out how diasporic skopjians react to the truth of their homeland. It must seem unimaginable for many among the slavic majority that they continue to live in hard, poverty stricken circumstance although the fascist government of Gruevski tells them and his diasporic skopjian apologists the opposite, e.g. that unemployment is going down. This is a skopjian government that has created a fascist styled state of intimidation and coercian while playing tunes from the pied piper that all is well in skojpian society to the masses. The reason for this is as follows! We continue to find many skopjian people who reject, firstly their slavic origins, especially those who live in the diaspora, and secondly the absolute miserable state the slavic majority finds itself in. As an outside observer, and very close childhood friend of some exeptional young Skopjian residents, both slav and albanian, I have to say the skopjians are in a very dismal state. One commenter here, obviously from the diaspora, continues to compare the current Greek financial crisis (not to mention precarious versions of history) with the skopjian one. Either he lives under a rock or fails to miss that the skopjian unemployment is nearly 39% and this is in a supposedly stable economy with financial growth. Now, as my skopjian friends have correctly stated wouldn’t that mean in a stable economy with financial growth we would all have jobs. They also correclty pointed out that, in pre-financial crisis Greece the Greek unemployment rate was a low 7%. Now, looking through the last 20 odd years we found with my skopjian friends that there has been a constant unemployment rate between 31%-43.9% meaning the skopjian governments has never been able to provide more work for their slav majority. What this tells us, is that had the skopjian government found itself in a financial crisis like Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, etc. unemployment would be anywhere between double and triple of the current figures. The skopjian capital reeks of misery and the stench of the defecated and urinated ugly statues that dot this grey city has many skopjians especially my childhood friends very upset, depressed, and unlikely to stay here if they can move abroad. They hate that the fascist government of Gruevski has wasted all the states capital on the ugly skopjian 2014 project just to win political points among its slavic majority in a fight between two skopjian identities. The fascists of Gruevski, according to my close friends, support the pseudo and fabricated antiquisationist identity claiming ancient individuals from the Greeks, and the rest of us they say, stand proud of our slavic heritage. Time will tell whether the ugly stench emanating from the defecated, urinated, and anti-fascist Gruevski graffitied statues so much hated by many young skopjians, will win the identity race between the Pro-ancient Greek-look-a-like antiquisationists or will the ambiguous skopjia 2014 lose to the majority left wing Slavicists @Robert Palmer you’ve written essay and said nothing. Stop blemishing around what you’ve perceived as correct. We admire your opinions, but you may want to understand that those are deviating thoughts and not facts. Don’t get to eager force your opinion over the world, as world may not accept it and you may suffer in denial, which is not good for your mental health. Romylia, Monastirion, Northern Epirus could have gone to Greece but they did n’t. Salonica or Kavala could have gone to the Bulgarians but they did n’t. What’s the use ? All this is engineered. The ultimate truth is this: Someone is sowing the seeds of discord. High in my list of suspects is the state of disarray now prevalent in the EU. The right wing flanked by neonazism wish for the nations of southern Europe and the Balkans to start fighting against one another. I come to this conclusion by the statements they themselves frequently make. This state of affairs taking effect will help bring about the dissolution of the EU. So old causes buried in the mist of time are unearthed. Old wars like those we see in zombie-back to life movies are revived and old weapons are dug out from where they were once buried. @Nick I wish could agree with you. The nations in SEE lack moral values and suffer of huge amounts egoism. They all come to be so much complaisant and self-contended forgetting that there is so much more than that, ther’s a world that needs to be considered as well. Even though others may not have the best intentions, the issue lies deep inside, not somewhere out there. @marianno The moral values are the same everywhere. We may have different religions but the same moral values and we observe them or fail to observe them the same way. In this case it’s a strange brew. We were enemies for many years and we could n’t do otherwise because it was communism there, NATO here. But the day the cold war was over, instead of coming to terms we said “hey man, let everyone else in Europe do as they like, we go back to the 19th century and fight the epic 19th century wars again”. With the Jugoslav republics I guess it was somewhat different, because there were other types of relation between them and they wanted to get rid of each other. In my opinion if Greece gives way and accepts “ROM” it is a disastrous and disgraceful thing to do and it’s just can’t be done. I doubt that even the communists, the former Tito allies, are ready to accept it, but in any case they are a small force of 4-5%. The others accept the composite name and a 15-20% of right wingers don’t want even that. For Skopia the solution “ROUM” is not such a great loss because the Macedonia part stays there and it implies the recognition that the country/nation is only the one part of Macedonia, as it is in real life. It cannot be argued that we should not have a say on the matter because we actually do have a Macedonia and it’s quite big as well. Now what Alexander might say, who knows ? Alexander in any case was the president Obama of his time and could send his air force any place, so more likely than not he would try to make friends with everybody. In reply to Odysseas: Sorry to correct you and with the greatest respect, you state ‘Can we have two countries in the Balkans called MACEDONIA?’. There are not two countries in the Balkans called Macedonia, There is The Republic Of Macedonia (a country/state) and The Greek region of Macedonia which has been part of The Hellenic Republic since 1913. The situation that exists between The Republic Of Macedonia and Greece is unlike that of North and South Korea two states separated by political ideology, international allies and since 1953 have been technically at war. I liken it more to the situation that exists in Ireland; there is the Republic Of Ireland and Northern Ireland which is a part of The United Kingdom. Both citizens now are free to express their identity, religion and loyalties, and whilst there has been centuries of conflict and violent discourse over the situation and troubles, the very large majority in both state and region are now at a point where they share civil debate, economic development, a sense of history, cultural expression and mutual respect. Maybe that might be a example/solution? Follow the present president set in Ireland; A Republic Of Macedonia and Southern Macedonia the region found in Greece. Respect UK. Dimitri,the Ottoman Empire never used ethnicity in their census.The question that was asked was;what is your religion.On December 19th,1920,Greeces census never asked ethnicity.The questions that were asked is as follows; Name and family name,age,birth place,eipoikooteita,tin deimotoikoteita,oikogainiakoi katastasoi,tin ekpaidefsoi,to epaggelma oi toin peithanoi anergia,xarakteireismo ton toiflon kai ton kofalalon kai pleirofories gia ta meloi tonoikogeneon pou eixan metanastaifsoi exoteriko.Epeiseis oipeirxan idietaires erotoiseis gia tein threiskian. The question of ethnicity is never asked in the 1920 Greek census nor the one you refer to of 1906. For our wider audience;Balkan and Neutral Statistics on the Population of Macedonia. Balkan views; Greek Nikolaides-1899=Macedonians 454,000 and Greeks 656,300,Turks 576,600. Bulgarian Kenchov 1900=Macedonians=0,Serbs=400,Bulgarians=1,037,000,Greeks=214,000,Turks=610,365 Serbian Gopchevich 1886=Macedonians=0,Serbians=1,540,000,Greeks=201,000,Turks and others=397,020 This table as reported by the Greeks,Bulgarians and Serbians.This table gives an excellent proof of those Balkan speculations surrounding Macedonia. The following table is independent and neutral European statistics of Macedonia’s population; German-Dr.K.Ostreich=1905,Macedonians=1,500,000,Greeks=200,000,Turks and others=550,000. Austrian K.Gersin-1903,Macedonians=1,182,036,Greeks=228,702,Turks and others=627,915. English Andrew Rousos-Macedonians=1,150,000,Greeks=300,000,Turks and others=400,000. In the neutral views none report the existence of Bulgarians nor Serbians in Macedonia. The Turkish statistics made the picture more confusing as the Turks registered the people based on religion,not on ethnic background as Dimitri tries to portray by fabricating reality.There are no surprises in the Greek,Bulgarian and Serbian reports on the Macedonian question as you can see from their biased falsification.As of the result,we have to rely on the neutral reporting,and who did arrive in Macedonia for their unbiased reporting.Dimitri,next time get your facts right.My advise to the Greeks is the following;Put the key into the ignition,start the engine then shift the gear to on.In other words,engage your brain before you open your mouth. Papadakis,the disgrace is what Greece is trying to accomplish.Greeces aim is extinction of the Macedonian idiom.Republic of Macedonia inhabited by more than 75% ethnic Macedonians are the rightful owners of the name Macedonia as an independent State.Aegean Macedonia,or as called before 1982″Northern Greece”or the new territories under the Armed Forces Administration of 1913. Before 1982 had you been heard to say the word Macedonia in Greece,you would have ended in jail”Makroniso”. One more thing I have to point out to you and your greek friends.The Socialist Federated Republic of Macedonia and Greece were signing trade agreements for decades under this name.Why it did change?The house fly started to buzz around your heads,and the concern of the occupied Aegean Macedonia and its minority.Ex-premier Mitsotakis concern was the unwilling to recognize the indigenous Macedonian minority,he was not concerned about the name in 1995.Remember,Samaras was the FM of Greece.He came out with a brilliant idea,how to win an election,and the Macedonian question was put forth,and ever since the Macedonian question is on the forefront of Greek politics.The Greek parliament instead of tackling the peoples problems,they still can’t get away from the Macedonian question,how brilliant is this?. In the area there are 2 countries : Republic of Macedonia & Greece. RoM recognize the existence of one Greek province that is Macedonia. Greece must recognize the existence of Republic of Macedonia. The only true is this one and everything else is illusion, mirage or delirium from people who do not want to recognize the facts. It’s all. @Nick I enjoy your reasoning and you tend to be as precise as possible. However there are two sides of the coin, and you don’t analyze in depth equally. You have your perceptions why changing the name should not be such a huge loss for Skopje. You make your points as why wouldn’t and I could argue out each one of them. Nevertheless that’s not what I intend to do now as the debate will be endless. I would kindly ask you now,to brake down bit by bit, and try explain to all of us, with serious ongoing current facts as why, for Greece, should the name change be considered as, I quote you: “disastrous and disgraceful thing to do” and moreover to give explanation why, I quote you again: “it’s just can’t be done”. I, and as well 5.000.000 more should agree, have difficulties understanding that. And as unfortunate for Greece may be, there is a all increasing pool of nations that shares the opinion of the “undefined” 5 millions. There are two neighbors. The first neighbor(FN) has a dogs at home, but if he calls them “dogs” they will have to be admired with a certain amount of dignity and change in their behavioral pattern reflecting the natural for dogs, and instead the FN has decided to call them cats in order to keep in order and to have them behave as he wants them to behave – as cats. The second neighbor(SN) also has a dogs at home. In his home the dogs are admired because of what they are and their behavioral pattern is not molded to the needs of the SN but rather accepted as natural. The FN goes to the SN and ask him not to call his dogs – “dogs” but to come with something different. The SN surprised asks why should call his dogs something other than “dogs” The FN explains that he has also dogs at home that calls them cats. Furthermore he explains that his “cats” are observing the liberty of the SN’s dogs, and start to change their behavioral pattern and make an urge to act as dogs and not as cats. The FN expresses his concern’s that if that continues, both group of dogs will eventually would like to join together. The SN than advises the FN that he should allow his dogs to enjoy their true nature instead of shamefully calling them “cats”, and that if he is so much concerned about joining the two groups of dogs, he will build a fence separating both homes so the dogs will know their territory. The FN fiercely denies the offer, and asks the SN to call his dogs something different than “dogs” on the expense of the dogs them selves. Should the Second Neighbor unconditionally accept the First Neighbor offer, or should he advise him to go and consult a shrink? @mr gorjeski It’s a vendetta. You keep writing me and say “I like the vendetta”. Well I don’t. A good solution has been found in GM-ROUM but I guess that will go to the dustbin too. There are a number of reasons why the name Macedonia for FYROM (excuse) is intimidating for me: First it is confusing. What happened ; Our Macedonia took off the map and went elsewhere ? Second those foreigners who use it, do it knowingly and conscientiously to intimidate Greece, for the reasons I stated in previous post. On the other hand a Fyromian of the “Republic of Upper Macedonia” obviously does n’t have this problem. The stories about “repressed people” here and there are fairytales and tall stories. When we had the wars they were not fairytales, but they are now. @ Peter That’s plain propaganda Peter. The name of Macedonia was never banned in Greece. Just see the facts below: “Macedonia” newspaper, established 1911 So “Macedonia” is been held and read by thousands of Greeks every day continually, for almost a century. What do you think? The name Macedonia banned? Not the only case of course that disintegrates the propaganda you are taught! Pls see more: “Macedonian halva”, since 1924 “Makedonikos” football team, established 1928 Macedonia Palace Hotel, built 1970 Alexander the Great statue in Thessaloniki, erected 1974 …and many many more! I have the feeling that all greeks have serious disorder issues, and I stop commenting here as any further commenting will hurt my principles. Simple there is no cure for your illness. You are such a terrible products of such a terrible agenda that there is no turning point for you. You are doomed for a lifetime, and life is such a marvelous thing. I fell sorry for you. VIVA LA MACEDONIA! @ Peter Surely I shall follow your advice to use my brain Peter. I hope you also follow your advice for yourself too. Now let’s check about the censuses. First of all the only official and detailed censuses performed in the area were the Ottoman ones; the rest are estimations and (in many cases) speculations. Next, who told you that Nicolaides counted down Macedonians? Nicolaides counted Bulgarians and Serbs but like anyone else he did not find any Macedonians at all! See this: Gop?evi? Kun?ov Nicolaides Turks 231,400 499,204 620,491 Bulgarians 57,600 1,181,336 427,544 Serbs 2,048,320 700 9,831 Greeks 201,140 228,702 647,384 Albanians 165,620 128,711 NONE Vlachs 74,465 80,267 18,769 To note that this site is not favouring the Greeks. Also pls see this: Name & Nat/lity Greeks Bulgarians Serbs 1. S. Goptchevitch, Srb 01,140 57,600 2,048,320 2. Cl. Nicolaides, Gr 454,700 656,300 576,600 3. V. Kantchoff, Blg 225,152 1,184,036 700 4. M. Brancoff, Blg 190,047 1,172,136 Also no “ethnic Macedeonians” here! In Wiki also you can find several other censuses of the time with contrasting data but all of them agree in one point. I am sure you guessed already: there are no Macedonians at all! Pls see: Regarding the Austrian and German censuses/estimations you presented. Both were pro-Bulgarian and promoted the Bulgarian policies in most cases. As the Bulgarians could not annex Macedonia according to the case of East Rumelia, they thought that their attempt should take place in two steps. First declare autonomy for Macedonia and then annex it. This explains why there are “Macedonians” in these two “censuses”. Another explanation is that they are forged and conceal the reality. Given the fact that by checking about them I found them only in FYROM propaganda sites, I believe these censuses are forged. Can you provide any serious link about them dear Peter or are you going to let them in serious dispute? Regarding Andrew Rousos or Rossos. This is the silly case of an “ethnic Macedonian” under a Greek name. It seems that hiding identity is the national hobby in FYROM! Of course his census is of no value at all! So Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbs whatever but NO Macedonians in 1906! As a last word, if the Turkish censuses were based on religion why then Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians are not presented simply as Orthodox Christians in total? Please follow your advice Peter; use your brain! @ Marianno Gorgeski Fact: You have usurped half the “Macedonian Region” territory back in 1913 Wrong! The Macedonian territory incorporated to Greece after WW1, responds to 90% of the antique Macedonia. Only the area of Pelagonia remained out of Greece. Fact: The dominant population living there was Macedonian, or as you may prefer “slav” Wrong! The dominant population was Greek as attested by all valid censuses and estimations of the Great Powers of the time. Not even a single “ethnic Macedonian” was ever detected through all these censuses. Fact: Greece has practiced assimilating and repressing methods over the population, escalating with banishing large portion of it out of the country. Wrong! Greece never did something more or less than the rest of the countries of the area did to the minorities living inside their territories; Greeks were prosecuted in Albania for speaking Greek, Bulgarians forced many of the remaining Greeks in Bulgaria to get married with Bulgarians so to assimilate the Greek minority, Serbs prosecuted Bulgarians and Greeks banned the Bulgarian speaking idiom from being spoken inside Greece. So what are you trying to prove with all this mess? That people belonging to minorities were oppressed all over the Balkans (and not only)? We already know this. Fact: Today there are also around 700.000 people that preserved their Macedonian, or as you may prefer “slav” customs, and understand them selves as Macedonians. Wrong! Actually there are 7.000.000 and not 700.000 only! :)) Fact: Greece in multinational Europe in 21st century is denying the existence of any minority. No panic at all my friend. Be my guest! Macedonians are Greeks – Slavophones included. Slavophones are more Greeks than the rest of us! Yet any minority recognition has to be mutual. Who thinks to belong to FYROM nationality should have the right to declare this; however any Greek that belongs to the Greek minority in FYROM must have the same right for him/her to declare for the same thing and their rights to follow the same degree of recognition. @ Peter “…The refusal to accept Isocrates and Demosthenes historical facts is in itself shameless on the part of Greece. Isocrates never visited Macedonia; this is a fact that cannot be refused. Also, Demosthenes was fully prejudiced and hostile against the Macedonians; this is a fact that cannot be refused either. Who can claim that both of them were free of prejudice on commenting about Macedonia and the Macedonians? Here are some facts related directly to the Macedonians and not on sayings of others about the Macedonians. So according to all findings: All of the thousands of inscriptions dated before the Roman occupation, found in Macedonia are ALL in Greek. There is not even a single inscription found in Macedonia, which was not in Greek. The vast majority of their names (for men and women) are Greek names. Those few that cannot be identified as Greek, cannot be identified as non-Greek either.(Nobody can say that they are of Illyrian or Paionian or whatever the origin). They shared the same religion with the rest of the Greeks Their traditions and their cultural aspects (eg the names of their months) were Greek. They participated in the ancient Olympic Games. Everybody knows that only Greeks could participate in the ancient Olympics at that time. That means that they considered themselves as Greeks and also that the rest of the Greeks considered them as Greeks too. Their language was Greek too. The Pella Curse and the Aiani inscriptions triumphantly prove it. These are sound facts that cannot be refused nor twisted about the true and real identity of the ancient Macedonians that was Greek. Hm, couldn’t be more Greeks I guess! Who better can write real history than those who lived through that time?.The so-called professor who gathered signatures of other professors to advice President Obama is married to a Peloponisian women. Regardless of the origin of his wife more than three hundred people, that are members of many Academies from all over the world have agreed and signed his letter to President Obama. I guess they did not put their esteemed careers and their profound knowledge in dispute just because of Prf. Miller’s wife origin! This conclusion is naive the less! Every discovery in Macedonian territory,the Greeks have altered them to appear as they were written in Greek. This is a joke! Where is the evidence? Be serious Peter; prove it or you become funny! A Greek professor of archeology Manolis Andronikos wrote”Macedonia should be considered the cradle of human history.” Any part of Greece can be the cradle of the Human History Peter! @ Nick Papadakis “Giati mou grafeis emena ellinika ?” 1) Giati eisai patriotaki 2) Giati den 8elw na 3eroun oi alloi ti leme an kai kapoioi … Dimitri,lets be rational,Greece erected Alexander the Great in 1974. On July 10th,1998,Greece condemned for discriminating against Macedonian minority(Strasburg report). The European Court of Human Rights on Friday condemned Greece for having banned an Association called”The House of Macedonian Civilization” “The court ruled that Greece had violated the applicant right to liberty of association” The plaitiffs come from Florina,Northern Greece.It awarded the applicant a total of 13,300 dollars in costs. The Greek administration and court had refused to register the association,ruling that its objective was to create a Macedonian Slav State with access to the Aegian Sea. The Greek government came with another briliant idea and suggested to erect a club named”Aristotelis”,that will shut-up the Macedonians.The person who suggested that was congratulated for a briliant idea. As in 1925,the Greek state recognized the Macedonian minority as being not Serbian nor Bulgarian,but a separate identity,separate culture and language. The UN has recognized the responsibilities of states in relation to their minority populations: States shall protect the existence and the national or ethnic,cultural,religious and linguistic identity of minorities within their respective territories and shall encourage conditions for the promotion of that.(UN Declaration on the Rights of Persons Belonging to National or Ethnic,Religious and Linguistic Minorities,Article 1(1) adopted December 18th,1992). The heads of state of the member states of the Council of Europe stated in the Vienna Declaration of October 9th,1993;”States should create the conditions necessary for persons belonging to national minorities to develop their culture,which preserving their religion,traditions and customs.These persons must be able to use their language both in private and in public and should be able to use it,under certain conditions,in their relations with the public authorities.(Uppendix 11 National Minorities.) The Greek government has signed and agreed to the CSCE documents. The UN Convention on the Rights of the child(1989)protects the rights of children belonging to minorities in those states in which ethnic,religious or linguistic minorities or persons of indigenous origin exist,a child belonging to such a minority or who is indigenous shall not be denied the right,in community with other members of his or her group,to enjoy his or her own culture,to profess and practice his or her own religion or to use his or her own language(Article 301)” Greeces denial of the existence of the Macedonian minority clearly contravenes its obligations under international law and agreements. The Greek governments denial of the existence of a Macedonian minority has resulted in its outlawing the establishment of a Macedonian cultural assocoiation.In 1990 several residents of Florina applied to a Greek court for permission to register a cultural association called the”Center for Macedonia Culture.” In August 1990,the Multimember High Court in Florina denied the application.Its reasons included;Articles in three Greek newspapers reported in June 1990 that two of the associations founding members,Christos Sideropoulos and Stavros Anastasiadis,had affirmed the existence of a Macedonian minority in Greece. The Macedonian Association has taken Greece to court in Strasburg several times,and each time the Greek state had to pay damages and costs. Again this year Greece announced the new park in Salonika in honor of Alexander the Great.I wonder,why the Greek government does not erect statues of Alexander the Great or Aristotelis in Greece proper?.Why are there no discoveries of the Royal Macedonia family in Greece proper,but all Macedonian ancient discoveries are found in Macedonian territories? Historicaly,the Greek fabrications do come up to the surface,and the World has caught-up with it. Macedonia has never belonged to Greece,nor it will ever! Dimitri,my friend,why it is always,historians who tell the truth,for you Greeks are fake? The Turkish statistics made the picture more confusing as the Turks registered the people based on religion,not on ethnic background.The table I provided of Nikolaides,Kenchov and Gopchevich,they never set foot in Macedonia.Never the less,you can see how biased the three were.But,the fact that Nikolaides in 1899 recognized there were Macedonian/slavs,Bulgaria and Serbia did not,whereas,Dr.K.Ostreich,K.Gersin and Andrew Rousos,that is his name,they physically went to Macedonia. It is more than obvious that all the views coming from the Macedonia’s neighbors which sharply contradictseaschother,are biased.They all claim their people in Macedonia to justify their well planed aspirations.It is important to note that both the Bulgarians and Serbian views agree that the Greeks in Macedoniarepresents only a small minority of 10%.The Greek ethnographer Nikolaides,on the other hand,claims three times bigger number than his colleagues in Belgrade and Sofia.However,the most importent about Nikolaides is that he recognized the Macedonian slavs as a separate nation,separate from the Bulgarians and the Serbs,to be part of population of Macedonia.And although he tries hard to lower the numbers of those Macedonian slavs,he still comes up with a convincing proof of their existence. This is the time when many European slavists,ethnographers,and historians,are also attracted to visit Macedonia and conduct their own investigations.Therefore,to find the unbiased population numbers in Macedonia,we have to rely on neutral and independent statistics as compiled by Dr.K.Ostreich 1905,K.Gersin 1903 and Andrew Rousos. The problem with you Greeks is,you have been programmed with fabricated history,and unable to think independently. What more proof you want me to give you,anything I give you independently you don’t agree because as I said your mind is programmed in the Greek political history,once more,the fabricated one.Andrew Rousos is English,probably of Greek descent,I have no idea,but I can tell you one thing for sure,he is not Macedonian! @ Peter For those who claim to belong to a “Macedonian” minority in Greece. Since Greece disputes the name of the neighbouring country it is natural that it is impossible to accept a minority with such a definition. Yet they are free to participate in the Greek Elections only to collect a ridiculous amount of some 4.000 votes throughout Greece. Regarding the Turkish statistics and the peoples identification through religion, I set a question but you did not answer. As already answered Nicolaides NEVER recognized any “Macedonian” ethnicity-nationality. I have presented two relative statistics of him along with links. Why don’t you present your links too? Should I guess because you know that they are fake? Andrew Rousos or Rossos is a ridiculous person who claims to be “Macedonian” although is retaining his Greek name. His Slavic name is Diko Roshovski but he likes hiding his real identity: See him here: Why don’t you check further on internet? Or maybe you are obliged to read only the MINA articles? Vrai Dimitri,eisai sta kala sou?.Do you really know your history or my Macedonian history?. Greece has been fabricating history since its inception of 1829. Read this,its no fake;German Deputy Minister Helps Greek Colleague Learn History. You want me to repeat the article on this issue again?. I will repeat one paragraph only; “Foreign diplomats have been increasingly frustated with Greek attempts to fabricate facts,come up with some sort of new history by ammending maps of dozens of its own history books who in the past showed their neighbor as Macedonia.All of it is for reprogramming purposes of the young local population”. When I say,you are programmed,I mean you are not even capable to think for yourself,and that goes for the rest of you “Greeks”. Greece exiled thousands of Macedonians in the 1920’s to make room for the Pontious from Turkey during the population exchange.Why were they settled in Macedonia instead in proper Greece do you think?. Why did Metaxas in 1936-40 started to change our names,toponims to sounding Greek?.Why did Greece burn score of villages to the ground,and did this happened in proper Greece.Your theory is,all slavophones in Aegean Macedonia are Greek,are you out of your mind?.In what planet do you live?.A Turk or an Albanian hellenized like yourself telling me that we are Greek,when you yourself are not!!Are you playing the Droutsas game?His own statement”I was born Macedonian and will die Macedonian”He is not even a Greek.His father a Cypriot and his mother an Austrian,and that makes him a Macedonian,and you a “Greek”?Is there no shame in you people?.You are not capable to give any facts my friend,you don’t know your own ethnic background.Eimai perifanos Makedonas! Dimitri,do you deny about the German deputy ministers comment from Wednesday,April 3rd,2013?. I can understand if you cannot,for you this is a fake,propaganda.I really don’t expect your answer,because it will be against your programmed Greek history. @ Peter “Foreign diplomats have been increasingly frustated with Greek attempts to fabricate facts,come up with some sort of new history by ammending maps of dozens of its own history books who in the past showed their neighbor as Macedonia.All of it is for reprogramming purposes of the young local population”. What is all this about? can you provide any relative link or this is fake like Rossos! @ Peter Greece exiled thousands of Macedonians in the 1920’s to make room for the Pontious from Turkey… It was not an exile but a population exchange. Pontians are Greek refuges from North Turkey and upon their arrival they settled in various places in Greece. In Macedonia there were many thousands of Bulgarians that had left their places and went to Bulgaria (as exactly many thousands of Greeks from Bulgaria arrived in Greece at that time too) after the exchange agreements signed between Greece and Bulgaria. The fact that these people left Greece according to the Greece – Bulgaria exchange population agreements and went to Bulgaria shows clearly that they were Bulgarians and NOT any “ethnic Macedonians”. As I said, no matter what Propaganda feeds you, the Greek refugees from the Asia Minor had settled to any place of Greece; from Crete to Thrace and not only in Macedonia as they make you think. Why did Metaxas in 1936-40 started to change our names,toponims to sounding Greek?. Did Metaxas start to change the toponyms? Hahaha! Sorry Peter but your ignorance to the matter makes me laugh. The change of the names of places etc started from the time of King Otto, the first King of Modern Greece. To tell here that it is our right to give any name we like to a place within the borders of our country. It’s our business to decide so and not yours or of anyone else’s. Then we are not the only ones: eg Russians renamed the city of Konigsberg (city in the Baltic), to Kaliningrad, after WW2. Also the Turks have changed many of the Greek names of their cities and have given them Turkish ones. So why only Greece should be blamed for doing so? Further to the above, the change of names of cities and places was a policy that started with the king Otto the Bavarian’s administration since 1830s. At that time most of the places received back their ancient names e.g. Salona was renamed to Amfissa, Vostitsa to Aigion, Zitouni to Lamia etc. The policy was maintained for about one century and was very fashionable. In many cases the people of a city decided to change the current name with the ancient one. This policy aimed to link the past of a Greek city with the present and not to “cover” the past of a city; You can’t cover anything after all. Further, we don’t feel we should cover something anyway. So, not only Macedonia as they make you believe but all of Greece and long time before 1920. Your theory is,all slavophones in Aegean Macedonia are Greek,are you out of your mind? My theory? Lol! They claim that they are Greeks; why should I dispute them? They always claimed this and they still do. These people fought against the Bulgarians for Macedonia to remain Greek. It is their right to identify themselves as Greeks and nobody has any right to dispute this. you a “Greek”?Is there no shame in you people?.You are not capable to give any facts my friend,you don’t know your own ethnic background. So do you know your ethnic background ? hahaha! Bre Peter have mercy! Dimitri,I already posted the text once,but here it is once again; “A German deputy-minister showed a map where Macedonia is shown with its constitutional name while elaborating over a meeting at the Greek tourism ministry,local media reports from Athens. After a meeting with Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni,Federal Deputy Labor Minister Hans-Joachim Fuchtel showed a map where Macedonia is shown with the constitutional name and the abbreviation MK. Minister Kefalogianni did not react to Fuchtel’s move,which surprised those attending the event,reports Greek media. Foreign diplomats have been increasingly frustated with Greek attempts to fabricate facts,come up with some sort of new history by ammending maps of dozens of its own history books who in the past showed their neighbor as Macedonia.All of it is for”reprogramming” purposes of the young local population.” The above was reported by the Greek media.I am sure,if you look up the Greek news media of April 3rd,2013 you will find it in your backyard,or it might be near that date. Do your research by calling the papers issued in Greece. Just to remind you that I do my research,make my comments before I engage the gear,I start the engine. Rizospastis published a lengthy article on the position of the Macedonians in Aegean Macedonia in November 1932 clearly describing the level of Macedonian awarness:”What we have in Macedonia are neither Greeks nor Bulgarians nor Serbs but the Macedonian people,the Macedonian minority which,in spite of all the blows and in spite of all the repression,preserves its economic and its national existence and a separate culture.” “It is these Macedonians states another correspondent who “Clench their teeth,stabbornly speak their Macedonian language of their own,for a free Macedonia.” Dimitri,the Greek nation is a fabrication.It is based on religion,not on ethnic paramiters,the 99.9% purity is just a dream,like the one of ancient continuity that does not exist. Have a nice day! Dimitraki,the Macedonian names were not changed in 1829 with the Austrian Prince Otto.Don’t you remember in 1829 Macedonia was still under the Ottoma Empire?. Greece for the first time entered Macedonia in 1912-13. The Metaxas regime burned 187 towns and villages during his dictatorship of 1936-40.Why does Greece celebrate the “Oxoi”?A year after Greece capitulated and collaborated with the Nazis.Queen Frederika wore the Swastica on her arm in Athens,so did the Greek government. Look,we have this type of people the likes of Crvenkovski,Frckovski,Petkovski,Georgievski and others who are working for a foreign countries interests.But at least I can tell the truth with no bias in my mind.I tell it as it is.Now,the difference between the above mentioned and Nikola Gruevski it is miles appart.Gruevski defends Macedonias interests,that is why Macedonia is the only country in the Balkans and wider with strong economic discipline,and national interests.Greece overtake Macedonia on the unemployment front.Remember,Macedonia was not build like the other republics.Macedonians started from scratch. @ Peter After a meeting with Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni,Federal Deputy Labor Minister Hans-Joachim Fuchtel showed a map where Macedonia is shown with the constitutional name… This is plain bs. only MINA wrote this, lol! So, stop repeating the same thing and please provide any neutral source to affirm this or as you understand it’s plain propaganda! Rizospastis published a lengthy article on the position of the Macedonians in Aegean Macedonia in November 1932… An article since November 1932! Very recent! Anyway Rizospastis and all Communists in general acted under the orders of the Soviets who were promoting the “Macedonian” ethnicity in an independent “Macedonian state”. They have been traitors of their country repeatedly, so their words do not count as evidence. The Greek nation is a fabrication? Lol! My God! Too many inaccuracies and lies in a few sentences! Peter stop being fed by propaganda lies. I told you the change of toponyms was a started by King Otto’s administration was remained popular for one century the less. Metaxas – and many others were following this policy. I hope I am clear. Macedonia was always a part of Greece. Hahah! Did Metaxas burn 187 towns and villages? Lol! Where is the evidence! Hahaha! Did Queen Frederika wear the Swastica on her arm in Athens! Did you see her? Lol! When Peter? Do you have any photo to present? Who says this? MINA? Lol! “Gruevski defends Macedonias interests…” hahaha! Gruevski simply fills his pockets with lots of money; this is what he does! He only cares on how to become richer and richer. He is a totally corrupted politician! Macedonia is the only country in the Balkans and wider with strong economic discipline,and national interests.Greece overtake Macedonia on the unemployment Really? Ok I wouldn’t like to deal further with the situation in your country. The truth is however that despite the crisis in Greece (you are supposed to have not any crisis so far) unemployment is not as high as in FYROM. Peter you really made my day with all these lies; I really laughed a lot! Please get some real information from trusted, neutral sources. You have internet after all! Have a nice day! You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 9 (updated: Bulgaria has joined Greece in vetoing the opening of EU accession talks with Macedonia, despite a positive recommendation by the European Commission. Bulgarian President Rossen Plevneliev told EU Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle on Wednesday (31 October) that Macedonia is “not ready” to start accession negotiations. This is the fourth consecutive year that accession talks have been delayed. Füle visited Bulgaria in a bid to clarify the government's position with respect to Macedonia. Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has accused Skopje of stealing from Bulgaria's history and badmouthing his country (see background). But Füle got more than explanations and was told that Bulgaria doesn’t see Macedonia as ready to begin accession negotiations. Füle had invested a lot of his political ambition in trying to unblock the stalemate between Skopje and Athens in the dispute over Macedonia's name, which both countries claim. The country's internationally recognised name is the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) but Skopje would prefer to be called simply Macedonia, which is also the name of a northern Greek province. On 10 October, Füle proposed a compromise whereby negotiations would start before a resolution of the name dispute is found. It was that the Commission has recommended the start of accession negotiations with Macedonia, and each time the efforts were blocked by Greece. But this time it appears that some momentum has been introduced by for signing a bilateral , in which both sides would commit to respecting the other’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and renounce any territorial claims. The situation looks different today. Plevneliev told Füle in a carefully prepared statement that before expecting any good news from Brussels, Skopje would first have to improve its relations with Bulgaria. “The authorities in Skopje will unlock their EU perspective not through propaganda and marketing campaigns but through actual reforms and actions for good-neighbourly relations,” The Bulgarian president pointed out that Sofia does not deny an EU perspective to Macedonia, and in fact supports that, but takes into account the fact that the former Yugoslav republic is not ready to start talks for EU membership. “Bulgaria cannot grant an EU certificate to the actions of the government in Skopje which is systematically employing an ideology of hate towards Bulgaria,” Plevneliev stated. “It is strategically important for the long-term stability in the Balkans that the government in Skopje starts applying the European approach towards its neighbours, without claims and manipulations. It is high time that the government in Skopje be done with its anti-Bulgarian campaign, and the manipulation of historical facts. The responsible European approach towards one’s neighbours and the next generation is to preserve history whatever it might be,” Plevneliev added. Füle reportedly disagreed with Plevneliev, and argued that Macedonia has been waiting for too long for membership in NATO, which Greece has also blocked, and the EU. “I am one of those people who believe that it is not good to leave our partners waiting before the door for too long. I believe that integration is the best means for coping with nationalism, and I am convinced that isolation boosts nationalism,” Füle was quoted as saying. states that Füle understands Bulgaria's concerns, but urges both countries to solve any open issues in a neighbourly spirit. “I welcome the fact that presidents have exchanged letters, and that Ministers Mladenov and Poposki are contributing to improving relations between the two countries. I am confident that through constructive dialogue and common understanding real progress can be achieved,” the Commission statement said. Nickolay Mladenov is foreign minister of Bulgaria and Nikola Poposki is his Macedonian counterpart. But precisely this exchange of letters has added fuel to the fire. Plevneliev had proposed that Bulgaria and Macedonia jointly celebrate certain historical dates and avoid a nationalist reading of history. One such date is , which commemorates an uprising on 2 August 1903 that freed the Bulgarians in Thrace and Macedonia from Ottoman rule. Macedonia has a different reading of the events and denies the role of Bulgaria in liberating its present territory. Much to the disappointment of Bulgarian authorities, Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov responded to Plevneliev, pretending he didn’t understand the purpose of the proposal. reported that Ivanov gave Plevneliev three dates which Macedonia would consider celebrating jointly with Bulgaria: Europe Day; the day Bulgaria recognised Macedonia and the day Bulgaria and Macedonia established diplomatic relations. This was seen in Sofia as an offense with Mladenov and Borissov reportedly making statements to the EU commissioner confirming Bulgaria’s determination. These developments took place amid on Bulgaria’s ailing judicial system, which may have encouraged Sofia to hit back at the Commission at a time when Füle was seeking mediation over Macedonia. Borissov’s populist stance is widely shared, with the opposition Socialist Party signalling that it shares the government’s position on Macedonia. In Skopje, Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, the leader of the nationalist VMRO-DPNE party, appears as the main instigator of tensions with its neighbours. Gruevski’s government has financed statues and arches promoting Macedonian nationalism and has renamed the airport and for Alexander the Great, an historical figure claimed by both Greece and Macedonia. Greece considers that Skopje is misappropriating large chunks of its ancient history. Similarly, Bulgaria considers that Macedonia is cherry-picking heroes and glorious episodes from its mediaeval history and the 19th- and early-20th century struggle against Ottoman rule. Recently, Skopje angered Athens by resembling Alexander the Great in the centre of Skopje. Both nations claim Alexander as a native son. Similarly, an Macedonia-sponsored in Brussels recently infuriated Bulgaria. The manuscripts mention Bulgaria and the Bulgarian language, and never Macedonia, which became an independent nation in 1991. Macedonia has also invested heavily in , the most striking example being the film “Third halftime” that depicts wartime Bulgarians as fascists, despite the Bulgarian government's decision to refuse Nazi orders to deport the 48,000 Jews in the country to concentration camps. EURACTIV Slovakia: Very sad, the Balkans is staying the Balkans… It is high time EU officials and journalists do some reading for a change… There are factual mistakes even in this short article. The Ilinden uprising did not liberate anybody. It was started in 1903 to provoke the great European powers to get involved in defense of the rights of the majority Christian region of Macedonia and force the Turks to give it autonomy. They did not. The Turks stayed. So liberation, of sorts, came after a war in 1912. And yes this is a sad story. And the European tradition of condescending ignorance towards any current issue is a major part of it. conflicts with the greeks, albanians and the bulgarians – leaves macedonia as an exclusively serbian sphere of influence. current macedonian policy benefits only belgrade. belgrade’s strategy is based on the assumption sofia will never commit to turning macedonia into a failed state. this might have been true once. can they be sure Sofia-Tirana axis will never take place? To Peter: Check your facts again. First Bulgarian state was established in 681. Cyrillic alphabet was created in Bulgaria 174 years later in 855. But yes, centuries before the Ottomans arrived. Commissioner Štefan Füle, a Moscow-educated clerk and former member of the Communist party of Czechoslovakia, is trying to score Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro in EU through the ‘back door’. Is Füle performing the real EU agenda or maybe the agenda of Mr. Putin? Commissioner Štefan Füle, a Moscow-educated clerk and former member of theCommunist party of Czechoslovakia, is trying to score Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro in EU through the ‘back door’. Is Füle performing the real EU agenda or maybe the agenda of Mr. Putin? @Peter Your facts are still unreliable. Southern Alliance,what are the facts according to you? I like to ask you few questions; a)have you read Isocrates letter to Philip. b)have you read the epitaph written by Demosthenes in 338 bc. c)have you read what former PM of Greece in an interview for “New York Times”on Sept.3,1903 said about Macedonia. d)have you read what former PM Mitsotakis in 1995 said at an interview for the T. Skinalis book”For the Name of Macedonia”. Have you read “Black Athena”by Bernald. Have you read what the occupiers of 1913 had signed on August 10th,1920 at the League of Nations. e)Greek high representative to the League of Nations V.Dendramis said in 1925. f)why did Greece print the Abecedar and for whom. g)Athena Skoulariki a sociology professor at the University of Crete said,and many more. Why would a nation create special police force under the title”Greek Secret Service plan for Macedonians”by Athens police chief Dimitris Kapelaris?. If you want more info I would gladly supply it to you. This page is not big enough to list all the information.I could supply these and other comments event by event,and who what said. Have a nice day! Now that Greece has been found guilty by the International Court of Justice for violating the Interim Agreement with Republic of Macedonia, and cannot any further veto Macedonian accession to EU, Bulgaria will assume the role of local troublemaker for EU. Will it follow Greece in its financial predicament remains to be seen. May I suggest that if EURACTIV values its credibility, it should not publish analyses of the Bulgaria-Macedonia dispute that are written by Bulgarians or Macedonians. The “Background” section of the above report, judging by its tendentious language (“badmouthed”) and selective omissions in its discussion of “Third Halftime”, was written by a loyal and patriotic Bulgarian, not by an unbiased, even-handed journalist. But it would have been just as bad if it had been written by a Macedonian. There are no unbiased, even-handed journalists in Macedonia when it comes to the country’s disputes with its neighbors. So next time you’re tempted to publish something about the Macedonian-Bulgarian dispute or the Macedonian-Greek dispute farm the job out to a journalist from Latvia, or Liechtenstein, or Malta… When you want a definite answer, Yes-No, the Balkans dialogue is ineffective! In Republic of Macedonia there is a sick anti-Bulgarian propaganda started from the time of the Serb-Communism until now. They teach us at school fake history interpreted for the needs of the Serbian propaganda. They tell us to hate Bulgaria and Bulgarian people. All books, documents, and letters from our ancestors and today national heroes are manipulated. At every place where it says ‘Bulgarian’ our propagandist replace it with ‘Macedonian’ and after that tell us we have no connection to Bulgaria and Bulgarian people. It is really sick to live in Republic of Macedonia where almost each day they spread to us psychological propaganda to wash our brains. From the other side they make a censure and don’t allow the different opinion to appear in any television, radio, or online newspapers as a message or a comment. Europe, help us! To Peter: I suggest now Gruevski makes you a big monument in the center of Scopie to commemorate your victory over the traditional history! The historians in Republic of Macedonia need to stop to fake the historical facts. What they do is replacing the term ‘Bulgarian’ with ‘Macedonian’ in all books, documents and letters written by our national heroes and revivals. It’s a known fact that almost all Macedonian revivals considered themselves and their language as Bulgarian. Your comments in < To Peter: Ancient macedonians spoke macedonian(greek/thracian dialect written in greek letters). Modern “macedonians” speak a dialect of bulgarian, which is a slavic language.And one advice: you can tell your stories to ignorant people inside FYROM. Your stories are jokes and fairytales.And yes now “macedonians” are different people, created by the communists in 1944 out of the bulgarian nation. You can ak about that the other real ethnic groups in FYROM – albanians, turks and so on… Kind regards To Peter: B. Dimitrov is not the father of bulgarian history, because Bulgaria has real history. The history has fathers only in FYROM because they have fabricated their own history. It is a pity for the young people in FYROM. They are brainwashed and manipulated by people like you. And who is the real fool will be seen after 20 years. And by the way Peter is a greek name…or the world is wrong about that too? When people begin to realize that Empires and States before the 19th century were multi-ethnic and multi-lingual with NO direct continuity to ANY modern country, and that ALL modern nations are just that – new & modern – then it readily becomes apparent that no one “owns” any history. So the actions of Greece and Bulgaria who clim that Macedonia is ‘stealing’ their history are like those of a spoilt child , bullying a smaller neighbouring nation which really is of no threat to their existence , or history. @ Peter Your comments in < I am sorry to say I never expected to meet so many wrong placements through a posting! After the terror methods exercised by the Tito regime through all the past decades, they also have dual personalities too! didn’ work! to try again with [comments] @ Peter I am sorry to say I never expected to meet so many wrong placements through a posting! You said: As to Dimitri’s comment;Dimitri,you are a fool to begin with. Thank you! You said: Tell the readers on this site,why is Greece claiming the Macedonians are Bulgarians and our ancestors as Greek. Because all the reports, censuses etc some 100 years ago state these people as Greeks or Bulgarians. No Macedonian Ethnicity is detected at any case. Ancient Macedonians were Greeks. Pls see the next posting just below. You said: Greece claims the Macedonians in the occupied Aegean Macedonia are Greeks. Actualy it’s just the Macedonians themselves who claim they are Greeks; not the Greek state. Additionally there is no “Aegean Macedonia”. Most of the original Macedonia belongs to Greece now with a small Part of it (Pelagonia) to belong to FYROM. You said: Both Greece and Bulgaria claim the Macedonians are one of them.How can anyone in his/her right mind think ethnic Macedonians are with dual identity. After the terror methods exercised by the Tito regime through all the past decades, they also have dual personalities too! @ Peter You said: As for Dimitis claim on Alexander,read up on Isocrates letter to Philip,also Demosthenes epitaph for the fallen Hellens at Chaeronea in 338 bc. Both Isocrates and Demosthenes express personal views to the matter. Further to this, Demosthenes was a fanatic enemy of the Macedonians so his statements are guided by his hate and hate is not an objective adviser. Regarding Isocrartes, he had been asking Philip to lead Greeks against the Barbarians (Persians). Prior to this he had addressed for this proposal to other leaders and all of them were Greeks. It is naive to judge Isocrates by cutting off a sole statement from the rest of his remarkable writings that show that Isocrates was interested for the total of Greeks and wanted a United Greece against the common acceptable belief of the time that favoured the case of the City-State. Again it is naive to think after the above, that Isocrates would enjoy to see some Barbarians to lead Greeks against other Barbarians. Finally what is MOST IMPORTANT regarding ancient Macedonians’ Greek identity, is not the opinion of some individuals but the numerous proofs that show clearly their Greek identity: 1) All of the thousands of inscriptions dated before the Roman occupation, found in Macedonia are ALL in Greek. There is not even a single inscription found in Macedonia, which was not in Greek. 2) The vast majority of their names (of men and women) are Greek names. Those few that cannot be identified as Greek, cannot be identified as non-Greek either. (Nobody can say that they are of Illyrian or Dardanian or whatever the origin). 3) They shared the same religion with the rest of the Greeks. 4) Their traditions and their cultural aspects (e.g. the names of their months) were Greek. 5) They participated in the ancient Olympic Games. Everybody knows that only Greeks could participate in the ancient Olympics at that time. That means that they considered themselves as Greeks and also that the rest of the Greeks considered them as Greeks too. 6) Their language was Greek too. The Pella Curse and the Aiani inscriptions triumphantly prove it. As even simple people were speaking Greek well before 400 BC it is impossible that they had been linguistically Hellinized. All of the above show the ancient Macedonians Greek identity and count much more than Demosthenes, Isocrates etc opinions about the Macedonians. You said: As for Athens and Sparta,they hated each other.They did not consider themselves as same people. Like all of the above this is wrong too! The answer is given by the Athenians reply letter to the Spartans just prior to the Battle of Plataea where they acknowledge that they (Athenians) like the Spartans and other Greeks belong to the same people (same Nation) and thus they would never become allies of the Barbarians (Persians): “For there are many great reasons why we should not do this, even if we so desired; first and foremost, the burning and destruction of the adornments and temples of our gods, whom we are constrained to avenge to the utmost rather than make pacts with the perpetrator of these things, and next the kinship of all Greeks in blood and speech, and the shrines of gods and the sacrifices that we have in common, and the likeness of our way of life, to all of which it would not befit the Athenians to be false”. (Pls see at Perseus Digital Library: Herodotus (English text), book 8, chapter 144, section 2) So, it is not only the religion but also “the bond of the Hellenic race” which is defined by: a) blood (people of same origin) b) language c) common religion d) common ritual of their religion e) lifestyle As you see the Greeks considered as people of their Nation those who had in common all of the above aspects “which are the same for all” (of them), and not only the religion. And for these reasons they conclude: “it would not befit the Athenians to be false” You said: Greek history is fabricated because it was written by Otto to glorify himself Nothing more wrong than this. King Otto and his Bavarians never wrote any History of Greece. The Greek history had been written the centuries ago by countless scholars of any nationality and – unlike yours – it is not fabricated but based on facts only. You said: According to Skoulariki the Greek governments are not convincing because it is a fundamental right of all people to freely choose their name. Is it a fundamental right of all people to freely choose their name, even if this is a name that belongs to others? Give me a break! So far to my knowledge this is plain fraudulent impersonation and is prosecuted all over the world and by no means a “fundamental right”. @ Pete Not quite dear Pete. Empires (but States not so much or you could give an example) of the past century, like the Ottoman or the Austro-Hungary Empires, were multi ethnic and this was the main reason of their disintegration. Even now the remnants of these Empires (like Czechoslovakia) were split according to their national compositions; Yugoslavia too! This means that this is not correct and that all these peoples had their own National histories which identify them and respond exclusively to these related people only; eg during WW2 the Slovakians were allies to the Axis forces while Czechs were enemies; so you cannot mix the histories of these two Nations, nor one would ever claim the History of the other. On the other hand even when people of various nationalities were put together under a central administration (Ottoman) they also had their own national character, objectives and reactions. For example Filiki Eteria was activated and addressed to Greeks only during the late Ottoman period despite the fact that both Serbs and Bulgarians were also Orthdox Christians who lived under the Ottomans. For all the above I think it wrong to say that: “no one “owns” any history” And that: “Greece and Bulgaria who claim that Macedonia is ‘stealing’ their history are like those of a spoilt child” I humbly think that Greece and Bulgaria, like any other real Nation, have the right to defend their respective histories against any forgery and usurpation. @Dimitri;With all due respect,your several comments are wrong,and here is why;The census during the Ottoman Empire were based strictly on religion,not on ethnicity,that is a fact.Greeces 1920 census was conducted in the same manner,here is a short transelation from Greek to English written on December 19th,1920 under the tittle”E makedoniki glossa stin apographi plithismou tou 1920″the article was written by Dimitri Lithozou.”Ti 19th Dekemvriou 1920 pragmatopiithike i geneki apographi tou plithismou tou ellinikou kratous ke ton ellinon ipikoon pou vriskotan stin allodapy.E apography avti itan i proti pliris katagraphy ton katikon ton neon eparhio tou ellinikou vasiliou(ke ton idietoron haraktiristikon tous) kathos i”Aparithmisis ton katikon ton neo eparhion tis Ellados”pou diexihni apo ton elliniko strato to Septemvrio tou 1913 parihe mono plirofories gia ton arithmo ton katikon ana ikismo ke diakrisi kata filo.To apographiko deltio to opio hrisimopiithike perielamvane erotimata gia to onoma,to eponimo, tin ilikia,ton topo geniseos,tin ipikootita,ti dimotikotita,tin ikogeniaki katastasi,tin ekpedephsi,to epagelma i tin pithani anergia,haraktirismo ton tiflon ke ton kophalalon ke plirofories gia ta meli ton ikogenion pou ihan metanastephsi sto exoteriko.Episis iparhan idieteres erotisis gia ti thriskia ke tin glossa ton apographenton.”I will not try to translate the whole page.As you can see,the census was done in the same manner as during the Ottoman Empire,no ethnicity mentioned.In the matter of ancient artifacts read my next comment. @ Peter: Regarding Lithoxoou, the only thing he performs well is to translate into Greek the FYROM propaganda. The fact that the subject of this (also known to me) article reflects only to the language (that is called “Macedonian”), does not justify any claim that the people who spoke “Macedonian” were not Greeks. Even the last of the linguists knows well that “the language alone is not enough to provide a solid proof about someone’s national identity”, eg speaking English does not mean that I am an Englishman. Yet, wherever there is a refer by the Greek authorities to the language or to people as being “Macedonian” this is done just because the Greek authorities of that period did not want to use the name Bulgarian, just because the Bulgarians were enemies at that time and thus they didn’t want to present these people as speaking Bulgarian. So Lithoxoou’s rubbish does not make any sense or evidence about anything. Regarding the Hilmi Pasha Turkish census of 1906 for the region of Macedonia, it states separately the Christian Orthodox populations as Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbs and others (eg Vlachs after the insistence of Romania). So your statement that: “The census during the Ottoman Empire were based strictly on religion,not on ethnicity,that is a fact.” is wrong as opposed by the proofs. Unfortunately no Macedonian population is stated at all through these censuses. This means that not even a single person ever identified himself as an “ethnic Macedonian”. @Dimitri:Dimitri,here is professor Mario Alinei,Dean Emiritus of the University of Utrecht,director of several linguistic reviews and progenitor of the Continuity Theory,states,”I have to commence by clearing away one of the most absurd consequences of the traditional chronology namely that of the arrival of the Slavs into the immense area in which they now live.The only logical conclusion can be that the southern branch of the Slavs is the oldest and that from it developed the Slavic Western and Eastern branches…Today only a minority of experts support the theory of a late migration of the Slavs.Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians carry only 15,2% of the Slav gene,slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians! They further reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians have the highest amount of the Mediterranean gene of all European people!This was also confirmed by the University of Madrid studies.In a court of law,it is genetic proof that is conclusive,I might add!Here is a suggestion for the Greeks,how about DNA tests on the remains of the Royal Macedonian Tombs,uncovered and desecrated by Greeks in todays occupied Macedonia?.Follow this up with genetic tests on modern Greek and Macedonian population…we will soon see the truth!.Further,there is no pure Slav people…just like there is no pure Greek. In summation…Ethnic,yes todays Ethnic Macedonians cannot possibly be of the old Mediterean substratum if they were slavs arriving in the Balkans in 6th century as the 19th century Western constuct asserts!Todaysethnic Macedonians are authocthonous to Macedonia,it is very simple! Their language,unintelligable to the ancient Greeks,was a form of proto Macedonian/slav,which they spread outward,becoming more complex as it moved further away from Macedonia.Countless proto Macedonian letters unearthed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia,and no doubt in Pirin and Aegean Macedonia,though the respective occupiers have no doubt concealed them from the world because it does not fit their lies,attest to this fact”. “In 1619,Dalmatian bishop requested from Pope Paul V to make a decision and relocate the College back to Loreto,and allocate more spots for bishops from Servia,Bulgaria and Macedonia who in the future will no longer need to contact the Wholy See for scholarships.According to Vatican archives,in 1620,there were three Macedonian bishops at the College.There are additional communications between Macedonian bishops and the College of Cardinals and the Pope in 1625 and later on.” Because you talk about no Macedonia existed before 1913,here is an exerpt to remind you,that Macedonia and its people did exist.”US WANTED MACEDONIA INDEPENDENT BACK IN 1783″”The project of setting at liberty the whole country of ancient Greece,Macedonia and Illyricum,and creating independent Republics in those famous seats.”This was one of the founding fathers John Adams said in a letter to his US State Secretary “John Adams,one of US founding fathers,in a statement written back on July 14th 1783 to the first US State Secretary Robert Livingston,clearly states he wanted to see Macedonia as well as Greece independent from Ottoman rule.” You see Dimitri,Macedonia is not Greece nor Bulgaria,it is simply Macedonia different than our neighbors.Have a nice day! Dimitry,you are so right on the language issue,I tip my hat to you.But,the problem is,why do you argue,if Alexander spoke Greek,it means he was Greek?.I have been arguing this point for a long time.Alexander spoke both Greek and Macedonian.The evidence is during the trial of Philotas in Asia.Also,the Greeks and Bulgarians are saying that we speak Bulgarian,which is a bunch of bull,don’t you agree?The Macedonian language is different from Bulgarian.Yes,there are similarity,but also the Macedonian language is similar to the Russian,Ukrainian,Polish,which it means,all Slavic languages are one way or other similar.Take for instance the English language,or even different US states,they all have differences in pronouncing words.Pollybius thesis also makes difference.I speak four languages,understand seven of them.On the issue of Dimitri Lithozou,he is talking about 1920,not 1990 or 2012 in support of the Republic of Macedonia.Let me say one thing,when one is in prison,does not have the resources to write his/her life story.The only time they can write is when they are free,and this goes for the Macedonian people.They are free,therefore,they can write their own history!Dimitri,have a nice day! Fule is incredibly evasive. Why does he pretend not to notice FYROM’s government’s absurd attempts to usurp history of Bulgarians and Greeks (and dare I say even Albanian mother Teresa has been redubbed a “Macedonian”? This peace at any costs mentality towards FYROM stinks of Chamberlains behavior. Fule “generously’ gives away other people’s identities. Have to wonder if he would have supported a neighbouring state to Czech republic that decided to rename themselves “ethnic Bohemians”…claimed Czech historical figures as their own….and had large numbers of citizens that used that fake history to frame his homeland as “Czech occupied Bohemia”. @ Peter To say only that the Paleolithic Continuity Theory enjoys very little academic support so you’d better keep some reservations about it. Yr txt: Recent genetic studies conducted by Oxford University reveal that todays ethnic Macedonians carry only 15,2% of the Slav gene,slightly above modern Greeks and Albanians and less than Serbs and Bulgarians! … Ok, PLEASE do not mix national aspirations and DNA as this ends to racism. There are at least three theories regarding the origin of the modern Greeks: A. Arnaiz-Villena’s research proves that moderns Greeks come from Africa Cavalli Sforza’s research proves us to be direct descendants of the ancient Greeks. (to note that Cavalli Sforza contributed in Alinei researches) Skopje University research that proves that modern Greeks have close kinship with the modern inhabitants of FYROM. You may choose any out the above three options I REALLY DON’T CARE! DNA analysis is a very complicated procedure and very expensive too and bear in mind that this just for one individual. DNA analysis of a population group requires some thousands of individuals to be checked thoroughly (which requires lots of money) so to come close to a trustworthy result. I guess that you understand what the above imply; that DNA ethnic analyses are plain rubbish and used mostly for propaganda reasons so you’d better keep some reservations about it too. Yr txt: Here is a suggestion for the Greeks,how about DNA tests on the remains of the Royal Macedonian Tombs,uncovered and desecrated by Greeks in todays occupied Macedonia? Desecrated? Occupied? Don’t judge from FYROM’s shameful methods dear Peter! The findings in Greece are accessible to anybody, unlike in the case of the findings in FYROM as access in them would reveal their Greek character. Macedonia was occupied By Turks and today is liberated and the Greeks of Macedonia are glad about this. On the contrary the prosecutions by the FYROM authorities, through all these decades and up to now, against many thousands of people who had the unfortunate idea to declare their Bulgarian identity, show clearly where the occupied territory lies. Yr txt: Further,there is no pure Slav people…just like there is no pure Greek. I agree. Intermixtures are common to all Nations. @ Peter Yr txt: Their language,unintelligable to the ancient Greeks,was a form of proto Macedonian/slav,which they spread outward,becoming more complex as it moved further away from Macedonia. I am sorry to say that you are lacking evidence dear Peter or please do present the proofs. As I said in my above posting: “Their language was Greek too. The Pella Curse and the Aiani inscriptions triumphantly prove it. As even simple people were speaking Greek well before 400 BC it is impossible that they had been linguistically Hellinized”. I present two proofs that ancient Macedonians wrote and spoke Greek: The Pella Curse and the Aiani inscriptions. So where is the evidence that their language “was a form of proto Macedonian/slav”? Further, by being unintelligible in speech one does not mean that he/she is talking a different language; Pontians, Cretans, Cypriots etc speak unintelligible to the other Greeks, however they do speak Greek dialects. To note also that there is no evidence that ancient Macedonians spoke an unintelligible language to the other Greeks or please do bring your proofs for this. Yr txt: Countless proto Macedonian letters unearthed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia,and no doubt in Pirin and Aegean Macedonia,though the respective occupiers have no doubt concealed them from the world because it does not fit their lies,attest to this fact”. I have already answered: the shameful forgery methods are part of FYROM’s habits; not Greece’s. Regarding the “Countless proto Macedonian letters unearthed…” why the FYROM authorities do not present them to any International Archaeological Congress? Should I say again “because of the fear that these shall reveal their Greek character”? Yr txt: “In 1619,Dalmatian bishop requested from Pope Paul V to make a decision and relocate the College back to Loreto,and allocate more spots for bishops from Servia,Bulgaria and Macedonia who in the future will no longer need to contact the Wholy See for scholarships.According to Vatican archives,in 1620,there were three Macedonian bishops at the College.There are additional communications between Macedonian bishops and the College of Cardinals and the Pope in 1625 and later on.” You are probably referring to Mauro Orbini a Croatian Catholic who was fond of the pan-Slavic ideology of Vinko Pribojevic to which he contributed further. His writings however are totally out of value as they are not based on any proofs or evidence but mostly in his desires so you’d better keep serious reservations about it too. I guess that out of FYROM nobody pays any attention to his writings. Yr txt: .”US WANTED MACEDONIA INDEPENDENT BACK IN 1783″ …. John Adams… said in a letter to his US State Secretary … clearly states he wanted to see Macedonia as well as Greece independent from Ottoman rule.” C’mon Peter! Who is John Adams? What is his profession and what was his knowledge about ancient and contemporary Macedonia, Greece and Illyria? @ Peter Yr txt: But,the problem is,why do you argue,if Alexander spoke Greek,it means he was Greek? Not just because he spoke Greek but because as a Macedonian he was a Greek. Yr txt: The evidence is during the trial of Philotas in Asia. This is what I thought you were talking about. The Philotas case does not give any evidence that Macedonians were unintelligible to the other Greeks. Yr txt: Dimitri Lithozou,he is talking about 1920… Also I am talking about that period too and provide (hope adequate justification why the Greek authorities of 1920s named the language “Macedonian” and not “Bulgarian”. Yr txt: The only time they can write is when they are free,and this goes for the Macedonian people.They are free,therefore,they can write their own history! Actually for all the past decades the people in Socialist Republic of Macedonia were imprisoned under Tito’s dictatorship and were forced to accept what they were told. Now they come to life and have to face a different reality. Hope that they will get real life soon! All the best! @peter Your ancient historical claims are absurd. You essentially have nothing to do with ancient Macedonians. You can’t even tell modern history accurately much less ancient. Why do you hide FYROM’s mostly ethnic Bulgarian past? Why do you hide your so-called “Macedonian” language.. used to be called Bulgarian prior to communist modification? Or do you deny the majority of people in what is today FYROM used to still self-identify as ethnic Bulgarians prior to the communists? (prior to which they were “macedonian” in regional not ethnic sense) “And whether Bulgarian consciousness exists in Macedonia, this is a historical legacy. We’re now writing our history. We can’t write that until 1940 we were Bulgarians and after 1940 Macedonians.” – Krste Crvenkovski (President of the Central Committee of the Union of Communists in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia) to Todor Zhivkov (First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Bulgaria) – May 19, 1967 @Dimitri Peter is a FYROM ultra nationalist that evasively pretends not to know of FYROM’s past life as non “ethnic macedonians”. This is precisely why he hides information like this. “This (US) Government considers talk of Macedonian “nation”, Macedonian “Fatherland”, or Macedonia “national consciousness” to be unjustified demagoguery representing no ethnic nor political reality, and sees in its present revival a possible cloak for aggressive intentions against Greece” – US State Department Dec, 1944 (Foreign Relations Vol. VIII Washington D.C. Circular Airgram – 868.014/26) @ Oppressed Bulgarians Dear all, whoever whatever anyone may be, he/she may freely post his/her view to any relative matter through this forum, provided that shows respect to the other posters/readers. Peter, apart from some high nationalistic tones, is kind and has posted some interesting postings so far, that show the certain way the ordinary people in FYROM face the history differs and overall aproach to neighbouring issues. I wish you all the best in your country there! @m_dzakova I guess in the beginning there was Macedonia.. and nothing else? If Macedonians dislike Bulgarians that much, then why are there big queues of Macedonians waiting for a Bulgarian citizenship? They all want to be part of the EU. How come Macedonians can spit on another country’s culture, steal its history and language, and still expect to be treated with respect? And it is about time someone takes action against this! After all, can a country be really proud of its own history, if it’s not their own in the first place? One more question to all Macedonians here: We know about Alexander The Great, Tsar Samuel, Cleopatra.. but.. was Jesus also Macedonian?? @Stella,Macedonians are taking Bulgarian passports for free travel to other EU nations.Traveling with Macedonian passports it allows them only three months,with Bulgarian they can stay forever if they want to.That is the sole reason,not because their conciseness is Bulgarian.Jesus was a Jew my dear,lets not bring religion into this.Macedonia does not steal your history.Our history goes more than 4 thousand years,before you Tatars showed up in this area from “Volga,Bahtria or as per B.Dimitrov Persia lately.This is the father of the Bulgarian history LOL. ” FOR MY GREEK FRIENDS” YOU ARE NOT DENAING THAT MACEDONIA WAS DIVIDED IN 1913, DO YOU?. IF MACEDONIA WAS GREEK (ACCORDING TO THE GREEK PROPAGANDA)THAT MEANS THEY WERE DIVIDING GREEK TERITORIES, IS THAT CORRECT? DO YOU CLAIM THAT BULGARIA IS OCCUPAING TODAY GREEK TERITORIES SINCE 1913?ARE YOU OLSO CLAIM THAT YUGOSLAVIA WAS OCCUPYING GREEK TERITORIES?ISN’T A LITLE TO MUCH FOR GREECE TO SWALLOW? WHY GREECE IS NOT ASKING BULGARIA TO TURN OVER THE PART THEY OCCUPY IN 1913 DURING THE BALCAN WARS?. THE TRUTH IS BOTH GREECE AND BULGARIA ARE OCCUPYERS OF MACEDONIAN TERITORIES .BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM AND THE PROBLEM BEING THE FEAR, ONE DAY THEY MAY HAVE TO RELINQUSH THEIR OCCUPIED TERITORIES BECAUSE, THEY DO NOTBE LONG TO THEM.WHY GREECE IS ACCUSING THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA OF IREDENTISM?(CHECK THE MEANING OF IREDENTISM) TO ANSWER THE QUESTION THAT STELLA IS ASKING WHETHER OR NOT JESUS IS OLSO MACEDONIAN I WILL SAY DEFINETLY HI WAS GREEK FOR SURE AND NOT A JEW HA HA. THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA BUT, US THE MACEDONIANS LIVING UNDER GREEK AND BULGARIAN OCCUPATION IN OUR OWN COUNTRY MACEDONIA. Peter demonstrates what a true Macedonian thinks: “Our history goes more than 4 thousand years,before you Tatars showed up in this area from “Volga,Bahtria or as per B.Dimitrov Persia lately.This is the father of the Bulgarian history LOL.” @Dimitri; It was Tito who recognized the Macedonians who contributed to the fight againts the Nazi occupation.The fact is,the Macedonians in occupied Aegean Macedonia fought on the side of EAM againts the occupying Nazis and Italians.The Prime Minister Gruevski’s grandfather fought and died fighting on the side of Greece in the “Albanian War”when Italy attacked Greece.Even today,there is a plaque in his native village with his name on.In 1945 after the War,Greek pro Nazi government promised free elections,instead they started to imprison officers of EAM instead of elections.In 1946 the DAG was formed to fight the pro-Nazi government.This was called”The emphilio polemo”.Both EAM and DAG promised the Macedonian masses in the occupied Aegean Macedonia to join their fight againts Athens government supported by the Brits.They were promised their freedom.We now experiencing the same fait as in 1936-1940 during the Metaxa dictatorship.Metaxas ordered all toponims,peoples names to be changed to sound Greek.During his reign,there were villages burned down,people imprisoned and sent to Makroniso and other islands just because they declared their ethnicity Macedonian.Let me go back to 1946-50 when the KKE made promises to the Macedonian people of their Human Rights dignity,their freedom of schools for the Macedonian children in their own language.Equal rights with all citizens of the nation.Zahariadis and Markos destroyed the Macedonian people.In 1948 they gathered all children from ages 0 to 14 and shipped them to the socialist countries.This eliminated a whole generation of Macedonians in occupied Aegean Macedonia. Villages became ghost towns.Former Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis was partialy right in 1995 saying”we thought all the Macedonians left the country in 1950 after the “emphilio polemo”.Now,compare Greeces stance toward the Macedonians and the Tito stance in Yugoslavija.Macedonians fought alongside Tito,they were recognized,and in 1944 ASNOM declared independence of the Yugoslav Federated Socialist Republic of Macedonia.This is how the Republic of Macedonia became wholly independent nation in 1990.As for Bulgaria,they fought on the side of the Nazis,their IMRO was fighting againts the Macedonians.They want to celebrate our heroes together.Will they celebrate the Macedonian hero Yane Sandanski who was killed by the Bulgarians in 1915?. @ Peter Yr txt: The Prime Minister Gruevski’s grandfather fought and died fighting on the side of Greece in the “Albanian War”when Italy attacked Greece. Yes, his grandfather was a Greek hero. His name Gruev was changed (possibly by the Greek authorities) to Gruios. The name was changed once again by FYROM authorities upon their arrival there after the Greek Civil war and is the name he is bearing now: Gruevski. Yr txt: In 1946 the DAG was formed to fight the pro-Nazi government.This was called”The emphilio polemo”. The pro-Nazi government? And who were the democrats? The Communists? That’s a bad joke Peter! Yr txt: Both EAM and DAG promised the Macedonian masses in the occupied Aegean Macedonia to join their fight againts Athens government supported by the Brits.They were promised their freedom… … Let me go back to 1946-50 when the KKE made promises to the Macedonian people of their Human Rights dignity,their freedom of schools for the Macedonian children in their own language.Equal rights with all citizens of the nation. Actually the Greek Communists stated that the Greek area of Macedonia should become independent and join with the Socialist Republic of Macedonia (SRM) within the Yugoslavian Federation. This statement took place after the demands of the Comintern that was guided by Moscow. Greek Communist = the other word for traitor! Yet despite the promises the Greek Slavophones were unwilling to fight with the Communists against the Nationalists but in most cases they were forced – men and women – to join the Communist side. After the end of the Civil War there was no way out for these tragic people and in most cases they had to follow the Communists in exile. Yr txt: Metaxas ordered all toponims,peoples names to be changed to sound Greek. That’s wrong! This was a policy from the years of King Otto, where the Bavarian administration decided to rename most places in Greece and give them their ancient names. Metaxas continued this policy. Even now, although a bit outmoded, the renaming to the ancient names still exists. Yr txt: In 1948 they gathered all children from ages 0 to 14 and shipped them to the socialist countries. That was a big crime against Greece. The majority of these 28.000 children were relocated from the East Communist countries where they had been settled, first into Yugoslavia and in turn they were sent to SRM, where they were brainwashed systematically to become “proper Macedonians”. Some of the most fanatic “Macedonians” today come from these kidnapped children. Yr txt: Former Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis was partialy right in 1995 saying”we thought all the Macedonians left the country in 1950 after the “emphilio polemo”. So far to my knowledge I don’t know any statement like the above ever made by the former PM. Is it possible to advise details about this? (date – place – original source). To be honest I don’t think he ever made such a statement. @ Peter Yr txt: As for Bulgaria,they fought on the side of the Nazis,their IMRO was fighting againts the Macedonians IMRO in the Greek area of Macedonia was made up by local pre-Bulgarian elements. After they realized that the war was lost for the Axis powers they turned en masse to the support of Tito’s forces in the area. Yr txt: Will they celebrate the Macedonian hero Yane Sandanski who was killed by the Bulgarians in 1915?. Sandanski became victim of the controversy between Centralists and Federalists, who were both Bulgarians. Anyway a Bulgarian would be more suitable to deal with the matter than a Greek like me. Yr txt: Now,compare Greeces stance toward the Macedonians and the Tito stance in Yugoslavija.Macedonians fought alongside Tito,they were recognized,and in 1944 ASNOM declared independence of the Yugoslav Federated Socialist Republic of Macedonia.This is how the Republic of Macedonia became wholly independent nation in 1990. Not quite! Something is missing: “Under the influence of its “Macedonian” Revolutionary Organization, many pre-Bulgarian organizations emerged. One trial followed another in Yugoslav Macedonia. From 1944 to 1980, seven hundred political trials conducted against intellectuals. Hundreds of death sentences were executed and 23,000 people disappeared and are considered to be murdered. Others were imprisoned and 120,000 were sent to concentration camps. Some 180,000 emigrated to Bulgaria, the USA and other countries. All this happened within the boundaries of a region whose population was only around 2,000,000 in 1990”. Source “Europe Since 1945” by Bernard Cook @ john Not quite John! The divided Macedonia is just a FYROM propaganda myth. Most of the original Macedonia lies in Greece (some 90%). The rest (Pelagonia), lies in FYROM and a minor part in Bulgaria. Macedonia has not been divided, unless you are talking about the approx. 10% out of the total of the original Macedonian area (that is Pelagonia) and is out of Greece. The rest 90% of FYROM has nothing to do with the original Macedonia. Greece, for long ago, has neither territorial claims nor any other demands against any neighbouring countries. Greece’s only relative concern is only for the people who live in neighbouring countries and identify themselves as Greeks so to have their fundamental human rights that any individual may have on this earth and that’s it. You say: “DO YOU CLAIM THAT BULGARIA IS OCCUPAING TODAY GREEK TERITORIES SINCE 1913?” Are you serious? If we keep on with the claims, then rivalries and controversies shall never end and shall result to all relative unpleasant consequences! We don’t live in 1913! Or what is the profit for FYROM due to the claims they retain? A lost decade out of EU I guess! You say: “THE TRUTH IS BOTH GREECE AND BULGARIA ARE OCCUPYERS OF MACEDONIAN TERITORIES“ The truth is that you have to wake up from the FYROM propaganda lullabies and come to modern world! All Europe has abandoned claims against neighbouring countries and walk together through cooperation and mutual understanding. Please get some synchronization! You say: WHY GREECE IS ACCUSING THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA OF IREDENTISM? Because of your posting that justifies completely the Greek concerns. Simple, isn’t it? You say: THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA BUT, US THE MACEDONIANS LIVING UNDER GREEK AND BULGARIAN OCCUPATION IN OUR OWN COUNTRY MACEDONIA . First of all: THIS IS NOT YOUR COUNTRY BUT JUST LEGAL TERRITORIAL PARTS OF GREECE AND OF BULGARIA RESPECTIVELY! GET USED TO IT AND BE RESPECTFUL TO YOUR NEIGHBOURS IF YOU WANT TO RECEIVE EQUAL RESPECT IN COMPENSATION! Now what I know (at least in Greece), is that those who claim themselves as “Macedonians” have their own political party and enter freely in the Greek elections, only to collect the ridiculous amount of some 2.000 votes only, out of the two million people living in Macedonia. On the contrary, in FYROM you forbid Greeks or Bulgarians to reveal their national identities or even to speak in their mother tongues. So the problem lies in your country (FYROM) and not in Greece (or in Bulgaria). As a Greek, I should speak just for my country, so there is no occupied territory in Greece and the people are free to express their identities. The occupied territories lie where people are afraid to speak and this happens in FYROM! @Dimitri.Let me put the facts in front of you.On the question of former PM Mitsotakis comments happened during an interview for the launching a book by T.Skinalis titled”For The Name of Macedonia”1995.Ex-premier of Greece Constantinos Mitsotakis in 1995 recognized that the problem with Macedonia was not the name but the Macedonian minority in Greece.”From the moment I first saw it I recognized Skopje’s theme in its true dimensios.What made me uneasy from the begining was not the name of this country…the problem for me was how to avoid creating a second minority problem in Western Macedonia.If the problem of the Slavo/Macedonian minority in Western Macedonia is added to the Muslim minority,which sadly,with our errors is a dangerous development,the situation will become unsustanable for Greek external politics…”enphasized the former Greek Premier in the introduction of T.Skinalis book”For the Name of Macedonia”.The announcement in the State Department report for human rights in 1991 for the first time mentioned the existance of a Macedonian identity in Greece,was of particular concern to Mitsotakis.”It has always been Greeces aim to have Macedonia denounce the Macedonian minority in Greece and to force Macedonia to accept international binding agreements that a Macedonian minority in Greece does not exist and to cease all propaganda aimed at Greece”.This was key for the Greek-Skopjan defence,remarked Mitsotakis.It is truly certain that after 1950 no such minority existed in our country,because the citizens with slavic sentiments who fought on the side of the communist left at the end of the civil war”said Mitsotakis.continue… Outside to official Athens however,there are some Greek intelectuals who have entirely different views on the name dispute.Athena Skoulariki a sociology professor at the University of Crete,for example says that”Greece is tangled in a strategic dead end.In the course of the last 16 years we have lost one battle after another and still have not seriously considered what we are doing wrong. Why is the outside World not supporting the Greek thesis on this issue?Why after so many years of trying has Greece not succeeded in convincing the international public?”asks professor Skoulariki.According to Skoulariki”the Greek arguments are not convincing because it is a fundamental right of all people to freely choose their name.We insist that our neighbor has no right to use the name Macedonia,ignoring the fact that during the 19th and 20th century there was a wider region called Macedonia:.Anastasia Karakasidou 300 page book study of ethnicity and identity in the Northern Greek province of Macedonia has been put on the back burner by Cambridge University Press due to a Greek protest.What was Greece afraid of this book?. In Greece there is no free speach,nor free elections.Here is why.Two years ago during European election in Greece,the Macedonian Party attempted to mail election material.The thing is,after the elections the Post Office which is a government institution called the Ouranio Toxo to go to the Post Office and pick up their election material which was post paid but refused delivery.Now thats Greek democracy,and on top of it,Greeks argue that the Macedonians are not getting the votes!Last year,a bishop from Salonika organized a demonstration and with it threatened to destroy newly opened Radio Station in Ovcharani(Melitis)in the Macedonian language.These people are paying taxes to the government,and through taxes church people are being paid wages.Now,since the people received license to operate a Radio Station,why is the church getting involved? I think,I gave you enough to think about Dimitri.I can speak about Greece,I was born there,I remember a lot.Iremember how the “pospasma”was working,what kind atrocities they were doing in the Macedonian Villages.I hope I answered your questions. Dimitri,Have a great day! Dimitri,IMRO never fought on the side of the Macedonians.Furtheremore,during the Nazi occupation there was no Macedonian government as we were under occupation,therefore,it is wrong to assume,that the Macedonians sent people to the concentration camps.As you know,the parts of Macedonia were under Bulgarian occupation,same as parts that were under Greek occupation,these two governments were sending people to the concentration camps.Please,lets keep fact as they are factual.I must tell you,I take offence on lies,and that is why I do my best not to mislead anyone,because lies are very hard to defend.Recently,Bulgaria boasted how they saved the Bulgarian Jews while sending thousands of them from the Macedonian territories to the concentration camps in Treblinka and other camps.The Federation of American Jews said it right”a murder is a murder”to the Bulgarian government.Have a good day! The name is Theodore Skylakakis and not T.Skinalis and he is a politician. Mitsotakis made the statement – according to him – under the pressure from various International Organizations that could start the procedures for the creation of a Slavic minority in Greece. So it has nothing to do with an existing minority but for a minority “due to construction” As I told the collection of 2.000 votes for the party of the “ethnic Macedonians” out of 2.000.000 voters is just a ridiculous result that cannot put any serious base on claim about an oppressed “multitudinous” “Macedonian” minority. Further to this, you have to be careful prior to speaking about any “Macedonian” minority abroad and check in your own country and the situation of the minorities living there like the Greek or the Bulgarian ones that are deprived by any of their fundamental human rights so far. Regarding Athena Skoulariki I have been placed already and I don’t think it wise to repeat the same thing all the time. The excuses of the Ouranio Toxo – Vinozito to justify their total failure through all the elections they took part, regarding the post offices etc, are childish the less. An. Karakasidou gives her personal view to the matter in many cases without evidence. Her personal view is accepted by herself and those who benefit from this. To me it’s simply out of value. The bishop who made this statement is Anthimos of Salonica and his statement is of no specific gravity – nothing happened! I never said that IMRO fought on the side of Tito’s forces in the area. What I said was that the people in IMRO changed side as soon as the saw that the war was lost and joined with Tito’s forces of the area. Regarding the Greek government of the Nazi occupation period they never sent anybody to any concentration camp. This task in Greece was performed solely by the Nazi forces and some Greek individuals but by no means by the puppet government or any of their services. All the best! Excus me Dimitri,I am from occupied Aegean Macedonia,I am not from the Republic of Macedonia,furthere,I never lived in Macedonia.The reason I support the Republic of Macedonia is because this is the only part of geographic Macedonia FREE!The Macedonians are their own masters in their own house.Once a Greek commented”the Macedonians came to our living room and claim it is theirs.How ironic,Macedonians did not come in Athens to claim his living room as ours.It is the Greeks who came to our living room in 1913 and claim that our living room is theirs.It looks like you don’t like to comment on the Metaxas dictatura from 1936-40.I don’t blame you,there is no defense for what he did to the Macedonian people.On the IMRO subject,they never joined Tito,they remained Bulgarian.Today at the EU parliament their remnants are members of that organization who think,they should fought Greece for the Macedonian teritory.The governments ofGreece and Bulgaria,within whose state borders live great numbers of Macedonians are not only carrying out systematic denationalization of those Macedonian national minorities residing in northern Greek territory,the Aegean portion of Macedonia and in the South-West portion of Bulgaria,the Pirin portion of Macedonia but,in order to justify that procedure,negate the existence of a Macedonian nation altogether that is the Republic of Macedonia.It is maintained that they are”Slavicized”Greeks or “Macedonianized Bulgarians”not a separate people who with the penetration of Greeks and Bulgarians onto Macedonian soil constituted itself a separate nation in the Balkans during the last century,particularly the second half of it.Then occurred the fateful moment,the declaration of Macedonian natinality which is,as E.Kardelj states,”the most convincing and trustworthy sign of the existence of any nation,the Macedonian included”.(E.Kardelj,The Development of the Slovenian National Question.)On the elections,you are wrong.When people don’t know who’s running,they don’t cast a vote.When people don’t know their platform of a party they don’t vote for these candidates.But the fact is,a government institution barred the delivery of election material.If this happens in the USA the Supreme Court would have been involved,and heads would have been rolling the likes of long term jails regardless of rank.Dimitri,as usual,have a great day my friend! Yr txt: Excus me Dimitri,I am from occupied Aegean Macedonia, Most of the people who live in south Fyrom are of Greek origin. If you come from the original area of Macedonia then you are probably of Greek origin. Also I come from a city in Bulgaria once called Philipoupoli and now Plovdiv. So what? Should I say that the area of Philipoupoli/Plovdiv is “occupied” by the Bulgarians? I am sorry my friend but this is insane and leads to a vicious cycle of territorial claims that not only never end but cause always dangerous situations. You come from a place of North Greece – so what? I come from a place of South Bulgaria – so what? Other Greeks come from Turkey – so what? Some Bulgarians come from other areas of north Greece too – so what? THE GAME IS OVER MY FRIEND! THERE ARE NO “OCCUPIED” TERRITORIES WITHIN EUROPE! PLEASE GET USED TO IT OR YOU SHALL BE ALWAYS VETOED! Yr txt: I am not from the Republic of Macedonia,furthere,I never lived in Macedonia.The reason I support the Republic of Macedonia is because this is the only part of geographic Macedonia FREE!The Macedonians are their own masters in their own house. Correct! The Macedonians are masters in their own houses after they were liberated by the Greek army since 1912-13. Yr txt: Once a Greek commented”the Macedonians came to our living room and claim it is theirs.How ironic,Macedonians did not come in Athens to claim his living room as ours. It is the Greeks who came to our living room in 1913 and claim that our living room is theirs. No, the Greeks liberated areas that were Greek since ever. The fact that you talk about “occupied” territories that were “divided” is a clear proof on how Tito used propaganda and history distortion to give cover to his territorial ambitions against adjacent areas of the neighbouring countries. I am sorry to say this is pure chauvinistic fanaticism. The more you do not understand what the reality is the more isolated you shall be as a country. Greece never came to anybody’s living room. Any fascist regime that retains claims against others has to convince its people first that they have the right to claim their neighbours’ areas. This can be achieved with the manipulation of the common public and the hard oppression of those who may have a different opinion. The brutal oppression of the Bulgarian populations and the severe punishment of those who meant to remain Bulgarians “convinced” the rests that they are pure “Macedonians” The 23.000 missing people however, (actually murdered), out of a population of less than 2.000.000 for the past decades, just because they declared themselves to be Bulgarians, is the indisputable proof of the shameful Titoic oppressive methods. To note only that Greece of the same period with a population of 8.000.000 never reached such an amount of political murders. (23.000). In 1912-13 the Greeks of Macedonia were happy to see their places being liberated by the Greeks Army but the same event brought grief to the Turkish and Bulgarian populations. The opposite happened in the areas liberated by the Bulgarian (or the Serbian) Army; the Greeks were unhappy to see their areas liberated by the Bulgarian or the Serbian armies! Actually not even a single person ever protested at that times that: “he was “Macedonian” and the Greeks (or the Bulgarians entered his “living room”! Greeks protested against the Bulgarian annexation of their areas and the Bulgarians protested against the Greek annexation of their areas too but NOBODY ever protested as a “Macedonia” – so relax; nobody ever entered your living room! Yr txt: It looks like you don’t like to comment on the Metaxas dictatura from 1936-40. I don’t blame you,there is no defense for what he did to the Macedonian people. Comment what my friend? That was a dictatorship! All Greeks suffered the same under this regime. Non-Greek-speaking Greeks suffered further because they were not allowed to speak their languages. Not only the Slavophones but also the Arvanites, the Vlachs or the Turkish-speaking Greeks were forced not to speak their mother tongues – so don’t try to play the role of the sole victim; what happened in your areas was the same that happened all over the Greece but your propaganda has managed to convince you that you were the only target – that’s a silliness! Yr txt: The governments ofGreece and Bulgaria,within whose state borders live great numbers of Macedonians are not only carrying out systematic denationalization of those Macedonian national minorities … On the contrary the FYROM authorities continue the fascist methods of the Tito oppressive regime to convince people that they are not Greeks or Bulgarians but … Macedonians! Yr txt: It is maintained that they are”Slavicized”Greeks … They are Slavophones and not “Slavicized” and they are more Greeks than I am. It is them mainly who fought in 1904-1908 for Macedonia to remain Greek. Yr txt: Then occurred the fateful moment,the declaration of Macedonian natinality which is,as E.Kardelj states,”the most convincing and trustworthy sign of the existence of any nation,the Macedonian included”. I don’t know Kardelj but if so, this guy must be a very naive person! Yr txt: On the elections,you are wrong.When people don’t know who’s running,they don’t cast a vote.When people don’t know their platform of a party they don’t vote for these candidates.But the fact is,a government institution barred the delivery of election material. Whenever they participated in the Greek elections, they were given proportional time in the Greek television and their participation was announced through all newspapers according to the law. Also their party and candidates were announced to all the election poll of the areas they participated so everyone having eyes, ears and brain could realize the party’s political character and participation in the elections. Those lacking eyes, ears and brains were probably the “Macedonians”! I am sorry my friend but it’s ridiculous the less for these people to blame the Greek Post Offices for their total failure! Yr txt: If this happens in the USA the Supreme Court would have been involved, and heads would have been rolling the likes of long term jails regardless of rank. Also if a US like Supreme Court would have involved in FYROM would have found politicians like Gruevski to have embezzled lots of money send by the FYROM diaspora and used for useless window works of no practical value like the “warrior on a horse” Also if a US like Supreme Court would have involved in FYROM, then it would have found lots of improper treatment for other parties of Albanian or Bulgarian orientation and the strong oppression of the Greek minority. All the best! Too bad for the forgers of history known as FYROM. Do they think they can continue to steal the history and heritage of Bulgaria and Greece and get away with it? Their behaviour has consequences as we have seen with the numerous vetoes of EU and NATO aspirations. Time to stop making up fairy tales and either change their name to something less offensive or join with Bulgaria proper. Dimitri,you are wrong on all accounts my friend.No my friend,Greece did not liberate Macedonia,they expanded their territory,take a look at the 1925 Greek map.In 1982 Greece formed “Greek Secret Service for Macedonia”,by the chief of police in Athens Dimitris Kapelaris.Furthermore, under the tittle;”Helenic Republic top Secret,Ministry of Public Security,National Security Services,Athens,16th February,1982.Number of protocol 650217-30427.Since you are in Athens,I am sure you can obtain this information instead I writeing it on this site.But,if you cannot,I would be more than glad to printed for you.The question is,why the Greek government went through these instructions for the police againts the Macedonian population in occupied Macedonia?.Why the Greek government never issued such special police in Peloponisos,Crete or elsewhere in Greece proper?. The reason I am raising the question on Macedonia is,I am Macedonian from the Aegean part of Macedonia.I resent you and your Greek simpatriots calling me”Vulgaros”and from the other side when it suits you you are calling me”Greek”.I am part of that Macedonian minority in the occupied Aegean Macedonia.This is why asked the question;you claim we are Greeks,the Bulgarians claim we are Bulgarians.Can one distinct people be both?.This is same as claiming Greeks are Hungarians by Hungary,Greeks are Germans by Germany,don’t you agree at least to the truth?.Dimitri,I am not giving you examples what the Republic of Macedonia is saying,I am giving you what the Greek government is saying.There is no bias in this,the only thing is,I disagree with the Greek thesis on the question of Macedonia and the Macedonian people,as much as I disagree with the Bulgarian thesis. Dimitri,I did learn the Greek history from start of historical data to 1955.I am fortunate to have Greek teachers who were teaching strictly history and language,not mixing history with politics.I also had the opportunity to learn the Macedonian history and language in the same environment,also two more other languages in my school years. As for politics,you are smart enough to understan,the politicians are looking for something that will excite the public to elect them,even if they lie through their teeth.Look where Greece is today,Samaras robbed the banks in 1995 for political reasons with no accountability to the country,now I hear Venizelos and another 2000 never paid taxes as most Greek citizens are required to do so.The Balkan history is written by each country to suit their aims,not because it is true history.Have you ever hear a murderer admit to it?.Here we are,arguing over the politicians screwed up politics.You were talking about Greeks in the Republic of Macedonia.They are Aegean Macedonians who are not allowed to return to their birth places because the political elite in Greece claim they are all communists.The children refugee of 1948 are not allowed to return unless they declare themselves Greek,and they are 28,000 of them,count me in as well. Dimitri,have a nice day! Dimitri,you see what John is saying above.This nonsense is going on for no good reason.All people have the right to declare his/her ethnicity as Athena Skoulariki said,and as per Human Rights declaration of the UN. @ Peter Yr txt: No my friend, Greece did not liberate Macedonia It depends. The Greeks who were living in Macedonia were happy to welcome the Greek Army; the Bulgarians not. The opposite happened in areas where the Bulgarian Army managed to enter first; the Bulgarians were happy to welcome them but the Greeks not. Yr txt: The question is, why the Greek government went through these instructions for the police againts the Macedonian population in occupied Macedonia ? Why the Greek government never issued such special police in Peloponisos, Crete or elsewhere in Greece proper? There are no occupied places in Greece. The Macedonians are free and happy Greeks. If you are talking about the 2.000 voters of the Ouranio Toxo these are “wannabe Macedonians”. Those who refuse the Greek identity and heritage of Macedonia are not Macedonians; you cannot be something you deny! Macedonia has been Greek since ever! I don’t know anything about protocol 650217-30427 and all these BUT the answer is that those who live in Macedonia are harassed by the FYROM propaganda and their spies that work against Greece and not the people living in Peloponnese or Crete. So, if this was true, I think it is natural for additional attention to be given to Macedonia. Simple? Yr txt: The reason I am raising the question on Macedonia is, I am Macedonian from the Aegean part of Macedonia . I resent you and your Greek simpatriots calling me “Vulgaros” and from the other side when it suits you you are calling me”Greek”. The people who live in Macedonia are either Bulgarians or Greeks. So you have to be one out of them unless you come from a family with one parent being Bulgarian and the other Greek. Then you are both; a Greek-Bulgarian. Yr txt: I am part of that Macedonian minority in the occupied Aegean Macedonia . This is why asked the question; you claim we are Greeks, the Bulgarians claim we are Bulgarians. Can one distinct people be both? This is same as claiming Greeks are Hungarians by Hungary , Greeks are Germans by Germany , don’t you agree at least to the truth? Not quite. People living in FYROM, where acknowledged always as Greeks or Bulgarians. Tito however, made them all “Macedonians”, through various brutal methods and brainwash propaganda. I have already passed the Bernard Cook’s text which is rather precise. Yr txt: As for politics, you are smart enough to understan, the politicians are looking for something that will excite the public to elect them, even if they lie through their teeth. Look where Greece is today, Samaras robbed the banks in 1995 for political reasons with no accountability to the country, now I hear Venizelos and another 2000 never paid taxes as most Greek citizens are required to do so. The Balkan history is written by each country to suit their aims, not because it is true history. Have you ever hear a murderer admit to it? Here we are, arguing over the politicians screwed up politics. Did Samaras rob the banks in 1995? The Venizelos case and the rest of the 2.000 people is not exactly just the case you stated. Anyway this is a long story and rather irrelevant to the article and the subject and I don’t think it suits here. Yr txt: You were talking about Greeks in the Republic of Macedonia . They are Aegean Macedonians who are not allowed to return to their birth places because the political elite in Greece claim they are all communists. The children refugee of 1948 are not allowed to return unless they declare themselves Greek, and they are 28,000 of them, count me in as well. No, I am not talking just only for the 28.000 children kidnapped and never returned to Greece as they should. These people after so many years of brainwashing propaganda are no longer Greeks but enemies of Greece. Sad but true. The Greek Government was right to allow the Communists, who left after the Civil War, to come back to Greece, as long as they claimed their Greek identity. Those who deny their Greek identity are not Greeks and shall fight again against Greece as they did when they interfered during the Greek Civil war not because they were Greeks but just because they wanted to destabilize Greece further. Besides the above case, I am talking further for the tens of thousands of Greeks who live in FYROM and are still forbidden even to speak in their Greek language. Regarding Skoulariki’s statement, (if this has been transferred properly) I have already replied as per above Peter. Wish you all the best. Dimitri,we argued on the subject of this article too long,but I can tell you one thing that it is for sure,and that is;Greece and Bulgaria know they are occupying Macedonian land since 1913,and I can tell you for sure,I am ethnic Macedonian,not Greek nor Bulgarian,nor Serbian. Since you are not familiar with the Greek Secret Service plan for Macedonians,here is a copy of it; “A document from the Greek Secret Service,dating back to 1982,exemplifies the methodical steps Athens took to destroy Macedonian ethnic conscious as well as the “idiom” within its territory.The plan had been drafted on February 16th,1982,by the Chief of the Greek Secret Service,Dimitris Kapelaris. According to the plan,Athens had created a Secret Team nicknamed”Plot Againts Macedonia”that was dispatched to Aegean Macedonia and infiltrated into all aspects of public life:(Tax office,Schools,Army,Church,etc).This is the period when a lot of Macedonians were followed,jailed,fired,beaten,for publicly stating they were Macedonians,not realizing they were being spied on at every level.The GSS also had plans for Florina(Lerin) resodents who failed to “feel Greek”,and feared may succumb under local Macedonian influence.As a solution,the Secret Service proposed to give these people money,brainwashing literature,and creating a cultural organization named “Aristotelis”.A brilliant plan,that ought to make them “Greek”!The magnitude,the sheer stupidity and lunacy of these people is remarkable.Dimitris Kapelaris took a moment to congratulate the Secret Service for managing to”almost”wipe out the Macedonian conscious and the “idiom” in Kastoria(Kostur).The Greek Secret Service despised the fact that Macedonians mary only Macedonians in Greece,and made plans how to mix marriages,so the Macedonians would loose their ethnicity.Were they trying to create more of the Karamanlis type?Their plan backfired,to this day Macedonians in Greece marry Macedonians.1982,the year of this letter,is also the year Athens implemented laws banning Macedonian refugee from returning to their properties-Not a coincidence.Next,I will copy the document drafted by the Secret Service. peter, have you ever read Serbian secret police files on Macedonia? I doubt it. Yet everything you need to know about your country’s past is there in the files of rulers… What did they find in 1912/3, what did they tried to do with the population, how did they fight the IMRO, whom did they paid, whom did they persecute… And I mean the whole period: 1913-1916, 1918-1940 and 1944-1990. Please try to read that… I am sorry to say dear Peter that this is plain propaganda. This text about the police activity seems to be the only text to advice about this case and it is reproduced through the internet like the case is now. Besides it is totally false and misinforming any reader with a good will: From the txt: the Secret Service proposed to give these people money,brainwashing literature,and creating a cultural organization named “Aristotelis”. That’s silly the most! This cultural organization named “Aristotelis” was founded on July 30, 1941 and not in recent years (1980, 1982 or 1984). As it was created in 1941 (at the time of the Nazi occupation of Greece), it’s clear that it was not created by any Greek secret police! From the txt: The Greek Secret Service despised the fact that Macedonians mary only Macedonians in Greece,and made plans how to mix marriages,so the Macedonians would loose their ethnicity.Were they trying to create more of the Karamanlis type?Their plan backfired,to this day Macedonians in Greece marry Macedonians. That’s totally wrong and a plain propaganda! The Greeks of Macedonia have come into marriages to each other regardless of their origin. The marriages of indigenous Greeks with Greeks from other places (Asia Minor refuges, Vlachs etc) is a well-documented fact that takes place for decades now with a more and more increasing frequency, according to statistics and without any use of force by the Greek authorities of course. You see Peter we were obviously lucky enough to live in a Democratic regime and avoid Communism and its brutal methods of assimilation like the 23.000 people that were murdered in FYROM during the past decades of the Communist regime, just because they claimed they were Bulgarians. As you see Peter the reality is totally different from any FYROM propaganda source like MINA etc. Dennis P. Hupchick, American professor of history: The Macedonian nationalists quite simply stole all of Bulgarian historical argument concerning Macedonia, substituting Macedonian for Bulgarian ethnic tags in the story. (“Conflict and Chaos in Eastern Europe”, Palgrave Macmillan, 1995, p.142) Dimitri,in support of that article,here is the rest,weather you believe it or not,it is up to you,but if you do a little research you will see I am right. HELENIC REPUBLIC top secret Ministry of public security National security service Athens,16th February,1982 Number of protocol 650217-30427 Introduction a)”The Skopians’activities for the autonomy of Macedonia may be efficiently confronted mainly by wiping out the use of the idiom,in the regions near the borders.This opinion is based on the realizations that also other regions that in older times were center of “Macedonianism”,like Kastoria, are not hit by the Skopian propaganda,because there the use of the idiom has been almost wiped out. b)This element bu itself would be enough to exlude any thoughts of repatriation of the P/R(political refugee) who now reside in Yugoslavia and who have been brought up with the”Macedonian idea”,the “Macedonian language and culture”,independetly of their participation or not to the organizations SNOF,NOF and activities take for detaching Greek territories during the period 1946-1949 c) As for evidence it is imperative to: 1.The creation of a state institution that will depend from the Prefectures of the region near the borders,lined with the suitable and specialy trained to the”Plot againts Macedonia”subject,personnel.This institution will engage itself only with this subject,with the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affaires and will colloborate closely,but in secret with the Security Authorities and all the Oublic Services(Tax office,Schools,Army,Church,etc) 2.In the public services and especially in the educational institutions the employees who will be in service have to be ignorant of the local idiom. 3.The establishment of special enlightenment seminaries for all the public service employees and the clergy who are in service in the sensetive region of Macedonia.Continue… Dimitri,continues. 4.The establishnebt of motivations for the obligatory residence of the public servants and other employees,in the quarters of their service(example:payment of the rent,extra pay,etc.) 5)Establishment of the Cultural Association,like”Aristotelis” in Florina and economic help to them,for the realization of events and the publishing of books,newspapers,magazines,etc.And afterwards these will be sent to the Diaspora abroad who has origins from the regions of the senders.This will boost their national sentiment and they will be protected from the anti-Hellenic propaganda that is been practiced by S/M(Slavomacedonians)organizations. 6.Insertion of various obstacles(non-recognition of diplomas,postponement of military service,etc.) for the Greek students who wish to study in Skopje. 7.Marking in each village of persons who due to their bounds and their personality influence a large circle of co-villagers and with any means(even with money payments)get close to them and use them properly so they will believe as the fighters of the use of the idiom in their circle.To this direction a very positive and effective role can be that of the Younger of the political parties,by the judgement and coordination of the Government,when a between parties agreement will be reached. 8.Recruitment in the Armed Forces,in Police Bodies in the public services and Organizations of employees with origins from Florina region,by exception,and their obligatory location in other areas of the country. 9)The encouragement,by the leadership of the Army of meeting and marriages of Army officers, who are on duty,there and have origins abroad,with women that speak the idiom. THE CHIEF DIMITRIS KAPELARIS ANT/GOS. Dimitri,you my friend can draw the meaning of this.If in doubt,check it out in the Greek archives in Athens before you jump and make an uninformed comment. My friend,Have a great day! Peter, can you advice about the original source of this information? Where did you find this? Can you advice about any relative link? In case you cannot post a link here just name: site > category > subjects > etc. Thank you Dimitri,you are in Athens,I am sure you can get this information from the Athens archives,the information is numbered and accessible. The information on Samaras raiding the banks in 1995,stashing 130 million dollars in black garbage bags also available from the court documents in Athens. The interview of former PM Rallis for “The New York Times of September 3,1903. Here is a short article on Macedonian Cgief’s death. “A Greek spy betrayed Deltcheffs whereabouts to the Turks,as reported by the London Times-New York Times. London,May 26,-Detailled report of the death of Deltcheff,the famous Macedonian chief,says the Sofia correspondent of The Times,show that he accompanied a band under Voivoda and Kirchovsky,together with the poet Tavoroff,and entered the village of Banitza,near Seres,where his presence was betrayed to the Turks by a Greek spy.A large force surrounded the village, and all the members of the revolutionary band were killed after a long resistance.It is stated that the inhabitants of the village,to which the Turks set fire,were also killed.For both,Rallis and Deltcheff,you can get the information from the archives of”The New York Times”published on May 26,1903.Present Bulgarian State claims Deltcheff was Bulgarian and want to celebrate with Macedonia,is’nt this ironic on the Bulgarians to claim he was a Bulgarian while the reporter of this article was a Bulgarian stating he was Macedonian?.As I said before,a prisoner has no power to defend his/her actions,only when is free! Part of Macedonia is free and able to claim what it belongs to them that was stolen by our neighbors. Dimitri,wish you a great day my friend! MACEDONIAN CHIEF DEAD Deltcheff Was the Man Who Arranged the Capture of Miss Stone London Times-New York Times, Special Cablegram. London, May 11.- The Vienna correspondent of the Times says the death of the Bulgarian revolutionary leader Deltcheff is considered a sever loss to the insurrectionary movement. Hi is said to have been the real chief of the famous organization. Deltcheff arrange the capture of the American missionary Miss Stone, presumably to get funds for the organization. Published May 11, 1903 This is from the real cable and I am sure you can see find it on the Internet. MANU must have the originals too. Peter, I said about the 23.000 Bulgarians murdered in FYROM and I stated the source. Since you claim for something you have to state the source dear Peter. Or it’s rather improper to claim for something and tell others “go find it”. Actually I found nothing regarding policeman Kapelaris and his notorious protocol 650217-30427 with his recommendations. Further, if all these are true we have to know whether the Greek Government approved these alleged suggestions. Actually this is the most important of all; anyone may suggest anything but the responsibility belongs to the one who either adopts these suggestions or not. Anyway if these alleged suggestions were applied to the Government I hope they were adopted because the FYROM propaganda to the entire Macedonian area is really unbearable. “…130 million dollars in black garbage bags also available from the court documents in Athens?” Oh my God! I hope they did not discard them like rubbish! Peter, that’s really funny! You really made my day! Gotse Delchev was a Bulgarian who fought and died for Bulgaria and that’s all. What is important is that I can support what I say through sources while you do not (or you can’t). Wish you a nice day too! Dimitri,I don’t make things up.These documents are in existence.I don’t critisize the Greeks only,I do critisize the Macedonians in the Republic of Macedonia.For instance;Branco Crvenkovski,Georgievski,Frckovski who offered 2 million and a Rolex watch to Gligorov to change the name.Gligorov refused,after that the attempted assassination on his life occur while Frckovski was the interior minister.These people need the same faith as Philotas for being treasonous against their own people. Now than,if you don’t believe my comments on this site,there can be no understanding between ourselvesc,can it?.I have written what I know for sure.The problem here is the mistrust between our people.Your writing is based on the Greek,and Bulgarian propaganda.Macedonia does not occupy foreign land,it is our neighbors who do as of 1913. On the Kapelaris issue,I even gave you the number of the protocol,how much proof you want?. You claim,we are either Greeks or Bulgarians,which none of it is true.The fact is,we in Greece some have been hellenized,same goes in Bulgaria,and did happened during the Serbiab reighn over present Republic of Macedonia.Look,in Albania,both Macedonians and Greeks have been united in the fight against the Albanian government for not recognizing the two ethnics during the census not long ago.Where do I get my information?.Internet is wide open.On Rallis statement,just go to the “New York Times”archives you will find it.I can’t bring you the archives on my own,all you do,click on it.I don’t know how much proof I can give you to make you believe my friend.If we don’t believe what’s written in the news media,internet or history books,than why are we reading?. On Samaras issue;he was sued by the Hellenic Repunlic,and found not guilty by the courts in Athens.The judgement was not guilty because it was for “patriotic”reasons(againts the Republic of Macedonia and the Macedonian minority in Greece.This is why Greece would like to see Crvenkovski as PM.He received a lot of money from Greece.I can tell you one thing for sure,he will never come to power again with his cronies who were paid by Samaras. Dimitri,you continue to refer to the Macedonians as Bulgarians,you are communicating with a Macedonian.How would you like me to refer to you as a “Turk”?. Have a nice day! des,Deltcheff was born in Kukush just north of Salonika Aegean Macedonia under the Ottoman Empire.Please,don’t give me the Bulgarian crap!He as I are Macedonians! You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.
## 10 The government in Skopje reacted strongly to statements made by Radmila Šekerinska, vice president of the opposition Social Democratic Union of Macedonia in which she said that the authorities of her country and Greece are equally to blame for the name dispute dividing the two neighbours. EURACTIV Greece reports. In an interview with EURACTIV Greece, that Skopje and Athens are “brothers in crime” on the stalemate of the name issue and slated Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, the leader of the centre-right Vmro-Dpmne, for using the name dispute to strengthen his power rather than trying to solve bilateral problems. Šekerinska is a former deputy prime minister responsible for European affairs and leader of the opposition in the country’s Parliament. The former minister of foreign affairs and MP of the ruling center-right Vmro-Dpmne, Antonio Miloshoski, claimed that Šekerinska was making an excuse for Greek diplomacy by by treating the culpability of both countries equally. “This gives additional artillery to every Greek ambassador, every Greek minister for foreign affairs, not to personally attack our country, but to use Ms Šekerinska's words to blame our country, he said. In an unsigned article titled “ ” published by the Skopje daily , the anonymous author suggests that there was synchronisation between the opposition SDSM and the Greek government on the issue. The article said that Šekerinska blamed Gruevski for his unwillingness to solve the problem, “a thesis that the Greeks have been trying to get over to the international community for years”. It added that Šekerinska did not say a word about rejected initiatives for direct meetings made by Gruevski to his Greek counterpart, but rather complained to the Greeks that “Gruevski allegedly did not make ??the necessary societal reforms”. The Secretary General of the department International Relations of the Greek center-right party New Democracy, Ioannis Smyrlis, told EURACTIV Greece that the intransigent attitude of Gruevski was blocking the prospects of EU membership of his country. “This intransigent attitude is now being recognised by opposition officials of our neighbor country and it is high time Gruevski changed his approach, he said. He also said that Greece has made clear for years that it wants a common accepted name ” means using the name to be agreed in relations with everyone, thus rejecting the notion that a name for internal use could be kept. Chountis said Nikola Poposki, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Macedonia, said that after the latest round of UN-sponsored talks to find a solution to the name dispute, which were held in September, mountains stood between the two neighbouring countries. “The standpoints coming from the south [Greece] are the basis for the problem. We have had no assurance whatever that they want to become part of the solution, he said, cited by the website We can be partners about everything else but when it comes to the name dispute, mountains stand between us,” Poposki underlined. wrote, Poposki’s remarks leave little space for optimism about forthcoming UN-sponsored talks set to take place in New York. Macedonia declared independence from the dissolving Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991. The country is an ethnic mosaic. Slavic Macedonians represent the largest group (64% of the population). Ethnic Albanians are the biggest minority (25%), with Turks (3%) and Roma (1.9%) also present. the majority of the population are not Slavs, but descendants from Alexander the Great. Of all the hurdles standing in the way of Macedonia's EU accession, the so-called 'name dispute' with Greece appears to be the biggest. Seen from Athens, the official name used by Skopje – the Republic of Macedonia – is an open challenge to the Greek region of Macedonia. In reprisal, Greece vowed to veto Macedonia's participation in international organisations, including the EU, until the issue is resolved. Although Macedonia is recognised as the country's constitutional name most EU countries, the name dispute with Greece has led to an impasse for the country's membership of both the EU and Nato. UK, Poland, Romania and 13 other EU countries call the country Macedonia, while France, Germany, Spain and 9 other EU members call it Fyrom. Greece also considers that Skopje is misappropriating large chunks of its ancient history. The airport in Skopje was named after Alexander the Great, who is seen by Greece as a hero of its ancient history. Recently, Skopje angered Athens by of a ‘warrior on horseback’ resembling Alexander the Great. Znaci Drzavata si ja prodava samo da stigne do vlast. :-/ *facepalm* Folks, please tell your imbecile politicians: “we should simply change the name of the province in Greece” No “Macedonia” province in Greece = no stupid name dispute. Ancient Macedonians have always claimed to be Greeks and spoke Greek, while FYROM a slavic race arrived into Europe 1000 years after Alexander The Great, speak Bulgarian and at one time claimed to be Bulgarians. Building statues of Greek heroes like Alexander The Great and Phillip the II, renaming roads and airport to Alexander The Great means that FYROM doesn’t respect its agreement with Greece and is still trying to steal a culture that doesn’t even belong to FYROM.. NO! TO FYROM USING THE GREEK NAME OF MACEDONIA. Ancient Macedonians have always claimed to be Greeks and spoke Greek, while FYROM a slavic race arrived into Europe 1000 years after Alexander The Great, speak Bulgarian and at one time claimed to be Bulgarians. Building statues of Greek heroes like Alexander The Great and Phillip the II, renaming roads and airport to Alexander The Great means that FYROM doesn’t respect its agreement with Greece and is still trying to steal a culture that doesn’t even belong to FYROM.. NO! TO FYROM USING THE GREEK NAME OF MACEDONIA. There is actually no province in Greece simply known as ‘Macedonia’. There is West Macedonia, Central Macedonia, and East Macedonia – there is no Macedonia province. Before these provinces were known as West/Central/East Macedonia they were known as New Territories, as Greece was gifted 51% of the total Macedonian lands after the Balkan Wars in 1913. These people who had no connection to Macedonia prior to 1913 now push the lie that these lands were always greek (whatever that means), but these people don’t tell you that they had to pass a law in government in order to change the original Macedonian names in order to make them sound ‘greek’. The lies seem to be catching up, and that is why they find themselves on the brink of collapse in every facet of their existence. When European powers finally decide to pull the plug on financially aiding this nation, their house of lies will be no more. We, Macedonians, don’t have an issue with our name. The name issue is a greek issue. Unfortunately for the greeks there is nothing they can do about their inferiority complex but cry and hope people are stupid enough not to know about historical truths, such as acquiring Macedonian land after 1913. There may have been a time when foreigners to Macedonia (greeks, bulgars, serbs) had a chance to speak unfairly on Macedonians’ behalf, but those days are long gone and only Macedonians can speak on Macedonian matters. I encourage greeks to worry about their own nation and the problems they face, as Europe and the world can see through the lies you are portraying and are fed up with them. It is common knowledge to all Macedonians that the SDSM party is in bed with the greek government. Shekerinska should be put on trial for treason, along with her communist party. There is no such thing as a slavic race. Nobody is slavic by blood – slavic is a linguistical group, just like Latin is. If slavic was a race of people, the slavs would own Europe. So back to the drawing board for these albanians/turks/vlachs who make up the population of a former ottoman province called greece. I see there are two sorts of idiots who create this dispute: 1) Greek idiots: They want to rename another country because they have not enough brains to rename their own province with the similar name 2) Macedonian idiots: They want to reverse the course of history and repeal the results of some century old wars Macedonian is and was Greek since antiquity with uncountable evidence. Historical facts are available in every world university, museums and archaeological sites. The X Bulgarians who settled in Vardaska Banovina erroneous renamed the country Republic of Macedonia. Albanians are also settlers of the Vardaska together with many other ethnics, who don’t feel the name Macedonia fits the rest of the population. Vardaska should remain as it satisfies all ethnic groups. And how many ethnics live in Greece? Clearly “Macedonia” has an identity crisis – part of its population Albanian, the other part Slavic. Even of one were to accept the flawed theory that “Macedonia” has direct lineage to Alexander The Great, the merits of such an argument would have to recognize that it lay on the outer ring, the back waters, the hill billy lands…it was in no way the hub if activity, excellence, culture, dynamism which clearly lay in Greece. Come on people, why not just embrace your Slavic and Albanian melabpnge of history and people. It would be far more true and credible. It’s like trying badly to convince everyone that Michael Jackson was indeed white! Get over it already…. Hmmmmmm! Seems to me that even Ancient Greeks thought Macedonians were NOT Greek! “It seems that the first Macedonian state emerged in the 8th or early 7th century BC under the Argead Dynasty, who, according to legend, migrated to the region from the Greek city of Argos in Peloponnesus (thus the name Argead). Herodotus mentions this founding myth when Alexander I was asked to prove his Greek descent in order to participate in the Olympic Games, an athletic event in which only men of Greek origin were entitled to participate.” The Macedonia in Greece was always 100% Macedonia. The so called “Republic of Macedonia” was 50% Dardania, 40% Paeonia, and only 10% Macedonia. So can any sane person here deny that Republic of Dardania of Paionia would be a more appropriate name for this foresaken country? People from Vardarska make everyone around the world laugh . Apperently no one has mentioned to you guys that your flag has nothing to do with macedonia and that your language doesn’t either. Oh and the main fact that no matter what you say the UN or the EU doesnt recognize your name. Keep blaming the Greeks for stating facts and you guys continue you split between Albania and Bulgaria. I actuall feel sorry for people in Vardaska because you guys are tought this and never actually leave to see what facts really are. Jusy look around and see something from Alexanders time and you will see its written in Greek , that is the end of any argument .. As stated above, the Macedonians don’t have an issue with their name or identity. The assimilated Albanians/Turks/Vlachs who make up Greece are the ones who aren’t happy with their identity, and are pushing to bite off more than they can chew. This name issue that they have created themselves looks to be their undoing as a nation, and it has been a thorn in their eye for over 20 years. Not even MEP’s are falling for their lies anymore. And where were Greek claims towards Macedonia when Macedonia was a republic within the Yugoslav federation? Why didn’t they protest against Macedonia back then? Sorry Greeks, it’s not good enough to simply say Macedonia was Greek just because it’s the only catch phrase you know. It holds no water in historical accuracy. Whether you like it or not, Alexander conquered the world as a Macedonian. This can never be changed. There was no Greece before 1821. This is a fact. Some maggot called Maggas claims there was no Greece before 1821. Well, with his logic and brains there was no Belgium before 1839, no Italy before 1861, no Germany before 1871,no Romania before 1877, no Bulgaria before 1878, no Ethiopia before 1896, no Norway between 1905, no Finland before 1917, no Albania before 1912, no Poland before 1918, no Iceland before 1918, in Ireland before 1921, no Egypt before 1922, no Turkey before 1923, no Saudi Arabia before 1932, no India until 1947, no Morocco before 1956, no Cyprus before 1960,no Lithuania before 1990, no Croatia before 1991, no Armenia before 1991, no Serbia before 2006 BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY THERE WAS NO “MACEDONIA” before 1991 and isn’t it interesting how all these ethnicities came into existence as nations AFTER Greece? Again, this is not my logic but someone’s called Maggas. Someone on this forum is asking why Greece didn’t protest against the word “Macedonia” when it was used as “Socialist Republic of Macedonia” before 1989. Well, here is why: 1. First of all 10% of FYROm ( then the Socialist Republic of) consists of what was once part of the Ancient Macedonian Kingdom. Therefore there is some truth in the usage of this word (although the remaining 90% which was Dardania and Paeonia would be a more appropriate name for this country.) 2. At that time the name had a qualifier before it, SOCIALIST, which distinguished it from the original MACEDONIA in Greece. This is the same reason why Greece has no problem with the usage of the name as long as it has a qualifier before it, for example North or Upper to distinguish it from the original, just like before 1989. 3. It was not used as a name of a country, but as a PROVINCE of a country, just like it is used in Greece. 4. Other countries use the name MACEDONIA , for example as towns in Ohio or New York or as a county in Texas. The difference is that they DONT usurp Greek heritage, history or culture and they DONT claim Greek land. 5. At the time it was conceived by Greeks as a joke. There was no propaganda back then claiming descendants of the ancient Macedonians by its Slavs. Now the situation has gotten out of control, mainly by its diaspora, not its own Inhabitants, but like a plague has now infiltrated into its youths minds. It is true that there is no province in Greece simply called ‘Macedonia’. There is only West/Central/East Macedonia provinces. So anyone claiming that Greece has a province simply called Macedonia is inaccurate and not telling the truth. So how can Greece claim that the Macedonian nation is trying to take a name from a province in Greece?? Also these provinces of Greece were named as such only in 1988. Before that they were known as New Territories and simply Northern Greece. And the word ‘Socialist’ is an economic term, it has nothing to do with ethnicity you twit. The Macedonians may have lived in SR Macedonia, but they were always Macedonians by ethnicity. A previous poster stated it correctly – there is no such ethnicity as Slavic. It is simply a language group. You cannot be a Slav by blood. So in reality there is no Slav Macedonians, they are simply Macedonians by ethnicity. It seems Greece is the only nation to dispute this, as the rest of the world acknowledges the existence of ethnic Macedonians. My belief is that Greece is scared sh*tless of the Republic Of Macedonia entering in the EU, as Macedonian lands that were illegally annexed in 1913 will once again be accessible to the Macedonians, and they won’t even need to start a war over it. So by defacto Macedonia will be whole again. Hence the delay in letting Macedonia into EU. It is funny how christian Turks who were transplanted into Macedonia from Anatolia after 1913 can claim they have direct descendency to ancient Macedonians. These christian Turks had to learn how to speak greek when they were first transplanted. If you look into these matters you will find a large amount of information that this was so, and you will even find pictures of classrooms full of young Turkish children learning a foreign language to them in order for them to be ‘pure greeks’. Now these people are Macedonians??? Lol. This is true Pelister. I have a few Greek friends who, after a bit of debate and soul searching, admit that they have a Turkish background, even though today they are Greeks. They have told me for a fact that their grandparents mother tongue was Turkish, and the Turkish language was used in their homes. I have other Greek friends who have Aromanian (Vlach) background. We do not debate on such matters and we respect each others histories – I as a Macedonian and them as Greeks. There was no Greece back in the time of Filip and Alexander, only city states which were defeated. Alexander was a ruler of an empire, and the city states were democratically ruled. The Macedonians could not have spread anything greek as there was nothing greek to spread, the word ‘greek’ being coined by the Romans much after the Macedonian empire fell. A common language known as koine was used for trade by all the people around the Mediterranean. It was not exclusive to a people. Later when Greece was formed in the 1820’s by the world powers, they revived a dead language (koine) in order to show that this ‘nation’ had roots in antiquity lol. There was even a huge chance of this new nation to adopt Albanian as the official language at one stage (do your research). It is inaccurate to pin an ethnicity solely on the language they speak, as that would all make us related to Queen Elizabeth as we communicate in English today. If these ‘ancient greeks’ were so influential, please tell me why no one else in the world speaks the same tongue as you people? You will come to the conclusion that the language you use was revived in order to show that you people deserved a nation with roots in antiquity. If people put the evidence together, it is quite clear that this happened back in the 1820’s. It is also quite clear why the Greek nation is falling apart as we speak – lies. Lies on top of lies. As mentioned in my above comment, what does new nation of “Macedonia” have anything to do with Alexander the Great? – modern “Macedonia” falls on the outer periphery of the Ancient Macedonian empire and was insignificant to the political and cultural flourishment of that wonderful civization. You were the hill billies of that world, at best. Again, it doesn’t matter how many times you say it or how you say it, you still can’t make Michael Jackson white, people. Why not look at the realities – you are a very small state with a mixed population, you fell on the fringes of various empires and were clearly influenced and touched by them. What is wrong with that? Why can’t you drop the pretension and embrace your mixed and varied past? Not everyplace in the world was the epicentre of culture and power and there is no shame in that. Rest on what you really are. For the love of humanity and for your own self-respect, let this go already. Also, are you worried about the religious and social tension mix in FYROM? The Turks are building quite a number of mosques there as they seek to extend their influence into your country. You have ethnic and religious tensions to sort out. It will not be easy. But I have the feeling these developments are not getting due attention – instead the name issue becomes the focus as more more Turkey gets involved in your country….extending its tentacles and yet it’s interferences goes unnoticed or is even welcomed. I don’t think the situation and the threats are being proposerly weighted and assessed in FYROM. It might make for good populist rhetoric to talk and lame t about the name issue – all the while important demographic and political developments are not getting noticed…. Wake up. Have you ever looked long term at FYROM sustainability as a nation? Trust me, the name issue is not your problem and I would focus your scrutiny on another neighbour and former occupier Wake Up Michelle! Have you looked at Greece’s financial situation! LOL Lerin, please stop spreading lies. If its uintentional thats’s OK, we can educate you, but if its purposeful it is very despicable for you to do so. So understand this, the province in northern Greece is MACEDONIA and it is ONE province, not three provinces as you say. This province is diveded into three REGIONAL UNITS (In Greek called ‘Periferiakes Enotites’), East. Central and South. Prior to 2010 the 14 regional units where called PREFECTURES. The Regional Units are further divided into MUNICIPALITIES (In Greek ‘Dimoi’)roughly equivalent to British or Australian shires. They are overseen by the Minisrty of Interior, while the ministry of Macedonia and Thrace is responsible for the coordination and application of the government’s policies in the region. Your second lie (intentional or not) is that before 1988 the name MACEDONIA was never used for Greece’s Norhtern Province or as many FYROMians like to say never used in general as a word with fear of prosecuton even. Please take a look at this evidence and prepare an intelligent answer: Greek geography school book 1939 … Greek geography school book 1939 1973 stamp clearly shows the word MAKEDONIA 1st stamp, 3rd row: … 1973 stamp clearly shows the word MAKEDONIA Alexander the Great statue in Thessaloniki, erected 1974 Macedonia Palace Hotel, built 1970 Society for Macedonian Studies Theater , established 1939 Macedonian Centre for Contemporary Art, established 1979 “Macedonia” newpaper, established 1911 “Makedonikos” football team, established 1928 “Makediniko” wine since 1890 “Macedonian halva”, since 1924 Macedonian Society of Great Britain, established 1989 Panmacedonian association of Melborne established 1961 Panmacedonian Association USA, established 1947 Museum of Macedonian Struggle, founded 1980 … (Thessaloniki)#The_Building Macedonian Marble, named in 1920, Nat. Assoc. of Marble Dealers/MIA) Tehni Macedonian Art Association, established 1951 Museum of Macedonian struggle in Kozani, founded 1989 The Folklore and Ethnological Museum of Macedonia and Thrace, founded 1973 Macedonia-Thrace Travel Agents Association , established 1977 … Museum of Macedonian Struggle, founded 1980 … (Thessaloniki)#The_Building Macedonian Marble, named in 1920, Nat. Assoc. of Marble Dealers/MIA) Tehni Macedonian Art Association, established 1951 Bank of Macedonia and Thrace, established 1960: (4th paragraph) Greek drachma coin, 1990: … Greek drachma coin, 1990: Macedonian Auto Moto Rental, extablished 1984: Macedonia Express travel agency since 1969: Here is a list of over 400 associations, clubs, museums,unions,federations, schools, federations, etc, etc, etc, of the use of the word MACEDONIA in Greece BEFORE 1991. Correction from my previous post: I meant 14 Municipalities entatiki, notice something in your post. Only two of what you mentioned were originated before 1913. Why? Tell me, if Macedonia has always been part of Greece why wasn’t it liberated in 1820? Why did it take the Balkan wars? Why did you let Serbia and Bulgaria take part of it? Why did Greece not insist on the entire Macedonia? Why is there practically NO Greek Speaking population in present day Greek Macedonia? Why were the names of all Slavic Speaking Greeks changed to Greek names? Why were Slav Speaking Greeks forbidden to speak Slavic and sent to jail or worse when they would? Why can’t Slavic speaking Greeks whose families fled Greece after the Greek Civil War return to Greece? Where did all those Christians from Turkey get settled during the population exchange? How could there be that there isn’t a single Slavic Speaking Greek in present day Greek Macedonia. I was born 2km from the Greek border. Was the population in Greece that segregated after the Balkan Wars that it was purely Greek Speaking? At least in Macedonia we recognize our minorities. We have never said and never will say that our population is purely Macedonian. When you get a chance read the Manifesto of the Krusevo Uprising in 1903. X Bulgarians of Vardaska Banovina aka Rep. of Macedonia, should stop this bizarre Macedonia issue. Additionally they should stop insulting Worldwide History Academia, Museums, Archaeological sites with regard to the Greekness of Macedonia. Communist regime has brainwashed them to believe they are Macedonians for their own desires and purposes, access to Aegean Macedonia. In answering Kosta Naumov’s post: 1. The rumour circulating in FYROM and what they are trying to pass around the world stage is that even the menton of the word MACEDONIA in Greece before 1991 was forbidden and prosecuted. I proved without any reasonable doubt that this is a DELIBERATE FILTHY LIE by your propagandists, something that your government should be ashamed of. Further more what’s even more worrying is that these lies are infiltrated into your schools and your youths are indoctrinated into believing these lies. 2. To answer your question why wasn’t Macedonia liberated in 1821 I can answer with a question to you, why was FYROM formed only in 1991? Macedonians had also taken part in the Greek War of Independence from 1821 to 1828, but remained outside the initial borders of the small independent Greek state, just like Cretans, Thessalians, Epirots and Thracians who lived in other Ottoman areas with dense Greek populations. The leader and coordinator of the revolution in Macedonia was Emmanouel Pappas from the village of Dobista, Serres, who was initiated into the Filiki Eteria in 1819. On 17 May, 1821 the Greeks of Polygyros, Chalkidiki took up arms, killed the local governor and 14 of his men and repulsed two Turkish detachments. In the autumn of 1821, Nikolaos Kasomoulis was sent to southern Greece as the representative of Macedonia. It was decided that the insurrection should be based on three towns: Naoussa, Kastania, and Siatista.In March 1822, in the vicinity of Naousa, Zafeirakis Thedosiou,Gatsos, Karatasos, organized the city’s defense, and the first clashes resulted in a victory for the Greeks in March 1822.Reprisals and executions ensued and the Ottomans crushed the Macedonian revolution. Macedonia never ceased to be a focus for revolutionary Greek movements aimed at bringing about union with the independent Greek kingdom. 3. To answer your question why did we let Serbia and Bulgaria take part in the Balkan Wars? We did not LET anyone take part in it. They entered it at there own will, the first against the Ottomans and the 2nd created by the Bulgarians. So my queston to you is WHERE WERE THE MACEDONIANS BACK THEN? WHY DIDNT THEY TAKE PART IN THE BALKAN WARS? WHY ARENT THEY EVEN MENTIONED IN THE TREATIES? WHY WERE THEY NOT EVEN MENTIONED IN THE OTTOMAN CENSUS? 4. I dont understand your question:Why is there practically NO Greek speaking population in present day Greek Macedonia? That’s a joke, right? 5. To answer your question:Why were Slav Speaking Greeks forbidden to speak Slavic and sent to jail or worse when they would? Can you provvide evidence to this false accusation? 6. To answer your question:Why can’t Slavic speaking Greeks whose families fled Greece after the Greek Civil War return to Greece? You are right, they FLED, not exiled like many FYROMians accuse. They fled because they where TRAITORS, collaborators of the Communists who promised them seperatism from the Greek motherland. If Albanians in your country revolt and go to war with a purpose of seperation of your country, then lose and FLEE to Kosovo, will FYROM welcome them back with open arms and flowers? 7.To answer you question:Where did all those Christians from Turkey get settled during the population exchange? First of all they where Greek Christians. Secondly, more Anatolian Greeks settled in SOUTHERN Greece and the ISLAND than in Macedonia and thirdly, there was already a Greek majority in Macedonia even BEFORE the population exchange. 8. To answer your question:How could there be that there isn’t a single Slavic Speaking Greek in present day Greek Macedonia. What are you talking about? Of course there are Slav speaking Greeks in Macedonia. And you stated it correctly , they are Slav speaking GREEKS!!! In simple terms, and is common knowledge, X Bulgarians of Fyrom self identifying Macedonian, have no proof/evidence whatsoever for their claims in front of worldwide history academia, and the rest of the slavic world who are also Macedonian according to X Bulgarians of fyrom. Go figure. Entaki, lets try to address al points rather than selecting what suits us. Te only way we can have a real conversation: My first point was that all but two of items you listed in your earlier post took place after 1913. You had no comment. 1. That is no rumor. I have personally spoke with eyewitnesses from Prespa who had suffered at the hands of the Greek government for using the Macedonian language. Second, in my travel to Lerin, merchants were affraid to speak Slavic. Only when they were alone would they use the language even though they were fluent. This was in early 70’s. Also there is a very good book you can read which wll confirm this: 2. Why 1991 – because that was the first real opportunity. Opposite to the Greek propaganda, communists in Yugoslavia were anti nationalists. Saying that you were first Macedonian and not Yugoslavian could have gotten you shot. At the end of WWII Europe was divided between Communist and Democratic at Yalta. There was nothing anyone could do to change that. This is also the reason why the USA and Britain helped the Greek Monarchy to win the civil war. Your answer has no logic. Sorry but it make no sense that the Greek liberation would ave arbitrarily stopped at the Macedonian border. If you read the book above you will find that the majority of the population in ALL of Macedonian was Slavic Speaking. This seems to be a better reason. At least it makes much more logic. 3. Most of the liberation movement in Macedonia was wiped out during the uprising in 1903. My theory is that the reason no one came to their aide was because they wanted a True Republic. Which is the last thing that Monarchies in the Balkans and rest of Europe wanted to see. They hated non monarchy governments as much as the USA hated Communism. 5. THAT IS NOT FALSE! EYE witnesses. Read the book above. Where are the 100’s of thousands of Slavic Speaking people. Did they disappear into thin air. Think my friend. 6. They were not traitors nor did they try to separate. Yes most were communist. But that is 20+ years behind us. Why can’t they return now? Why was a Macedonian folk singer stopped form entering Greece about a month ago. Her crime was that she sand Slavic Folk songs in a village in Greece some months back. 7. Wrong. Read the book above and you will see that the majority were Slavic Speaking. Ancient Greeks were Christian? 8. How come there are no minority rights? Why does Greece say there are no Minorities in Greece? Why are they greeks if they are slavic speaking. I thought by default we are Bulgarian? 9. Still waiting on why the Slavic names were changed to Greek? New one, Are you denying that Greece tried to force single language after 1913? Or what we now days call Ethnic Cleansing? @Kosta Naumov Your own argument contradicts your position. Ancient Macedonians self-identified as Hellenes (Greeks). We know this in part because only self-identifying Greeks… that were accepted as Greeks by other Greeks as Greeks… could compete at ancient Pan-Hellenic sporting events. Ancient Macedonians competed for centuries at the Olympics as self-identifying Greek. If the argument of your former self-identifying ethnic Bulgarians is that self-identification is an absolute, it is ironic you deny this same position to ancient Macedonians themselves. @Kosta Naumov To address your points. 1. Why do you hide your language wasn’t called “Macedonian” back in the early 20th century it was still viewed as a Buglarian dialect (prior to Yugoslav communist modifying it) 2. Indeed Greece and USA did help us against you former Yugoslavians…. including claiming no such ethnic group as “Macedonian” exists. This would logically imply either the US/UK were involved in a genocide attempt or that you are a newly formed ethnic group. Virtually every third party historian on earth would agree to the latter… except in FYROM. 3. The IMRO uprising in 1903 was lead by ethnic Bulgarians. IMRO from near top to bottom were ethnic BULGARIAN organization (including Delchev, Gruev, Misirkov who all admitted their Bulgarian roots) Why do you hide this? 5. The better question is what happened to all the ethnic Bulgarians in FYROM and where did the “ethnic Macedonians” come from? Census takers from half a dozen countries recorded ethnic Bulgarians, Serbs, Jews, Albanians, Greeks, Turks in the Macedonia region but none recorded “ethnic Macedonians” because what you are doing is stripping out the Bulgarian ethnic context of those “Macedonians”. 6. Greeks will not allow you into Greece because their aim is irredentist much like it was when they attacked us as communists and nazis. This is unacceptable behavior. Macedonia is Greek do you understand this? It is not part of your country. FYROM is your country. 7. Ancient Greeks spoke Greek… including Macedonians. If you now claim to be related to ancient macedonians why don’t you want to speak the language of your own claimed ancestors? 8. You should be the last country to be lecturing others on rights. You oppress Bulgarians (i.e. the former Yugoslavians that don’t want to be assimilated into “ancient Macedonians), Greeks, and Albanians within your borders. 9. Your last point of why Greeks gave Greek names to Macedonian regions is illogical if you claim to be Macedeonian. After we liberated macedonia from the Ottomans we changed Macedonians names back from Turkish to Greek precisely because they were the original Macedonian names. You are the ones giving them Bulgarian names. You are welcome to visit Macedonia to see ancient Macedonians coins that all describe Thessaloniki … in Greek…. as Thessaloniki. (not “Solun” as you call it) TO – By : Ancient Macedonians self-identified as Greeks 1. Viewed by WHO! Greeks? Bulgarians? LOL Anyone ask the people of Macedonia? Why did the Krushevo Republic seek an Independent Macedonia made up of Greeks, Vlachs, Bulgarinas, Albanians AND Macedonians. 2. Had nothing to do with Macedonia. It was all about suppressing Communism. Korea, Vietnam, Nicaragua, …..! Macedonians ended up on the wrong side. That’s all. Newly formed or not we have the right to call ourselves what we want. Part of a democratic society. 3. Bulgarian Propaganda! Read their Manifesto! Clearly spells out what country they were fighting for. 5. They have a right to declare themselves what ever they want. Including having a Bulgarian passport if they wish. No one is stopping them and there is no one pressuring them one way or another. There are plenty of Albanian flags flying where they are ethnic majority. Love to see them do that in Greece. Or are you saying there are no Albanians in Greece. 6. Who is behaving like a Nazi state! Paranoia and all! 7.Who cares what language they spoke. American speak English. Does that make them English? Or is Canadian and American the same? Since when does language have president over Geographic Location! 8. Again, why will Greece recognize Ethnic Minorities? We do. Serbs, Bulgarians, Albanians, Vlachs, Romas,….. They even have their own political parties. We even speak Albanian in Parliament. Albanian Schools. University….. 9 My last point was that ALL Slavic names were changed to Greek. As they were to Serbian in Yugoslavia and Bulgarian in Bulgaria. Originally Greek names. Are you kidding. 700 years ago no one had last names. You need to go to the Ottoman records and maybe you see for yourself. I fail to see why there could not be a country named Macedonia, and a province of Greece named Macedonia. The same thing happens in Moldova, which is both an independent country and a province of Romania, and nobody seems to worry. Why is it that Greeks and “Macedonians” get so heated about this?!? In ancient times, the Italian region now called Puglia (the heel of the boot) was called Calabria, and the current Calabria (the tip of the boot) was called Bruttium: should we go back and rename things now? The Macedonia of Alexander is not the same region of today. Relax, all balkanian people (and Greeks), and take it easy! @Kosta Naumov 1. You need to open an ancient history book outside of FYROM. If you did you would relize ancient Macedonians themselves self-identified as Greeks. e.g. “Men of Athens, that which I am about to say I trust to your honour; and I charge you to keep it secret from all excepting Pausanias, if you would not bring me to destruction. Had I not greatly at heart the common welfare of Greece, I should not have come to tell you; but I am myself a Greek by descent, and I would not willingly see Greece exchange freedom for slavery” Alexander I of? Macedonia, … self-identifying Greek denied his Hellenic self-identification by modern inhabitants of FYROM, Herodotus, Histories, book 9) 2. You evaded my point that virtually every historian on earth (outside of FYROM) claims your Maceodnian identity is a modern invention and that you are unrelated to ancient Macedonians. Rather odd that only FYROM nationalist claim otherwise no? 3. It is not “Bulgarian” propaganda that the ancestors of the majority of people in what is today FYROM used to self-identify as Bulgarians. Here is US anthropologists Loring Darforth who is even listed on MHRMi website as expert.. i.e. one of your supporters) “The history of the construction of a Macedonian national identity does not begin with Alexander the Great in the fourth century B.C. or with Saints Cyril and Methodius in the ninth century A.D. as Macedonian nationalist historians often claim” “Krste Misirkov, who had clearly developed a strong sense of his own personal national identity as a Macedonian and who outspokenly and unambiguously called for Macedonian linguistic and national separatism, acknowledged that a Macedonian national identity was a relatively recent historical development.” “The political and military leaders of the Slavs of Macedonia at the turn of the century seem not to have heard Misirkov’s call for a separate Macedonian national identity; they continued to identify themselves in a national sense as Bulgarians rather than Macedonians.” – US Anthropologist Loring Danforth, “The Macedonian Conflict: Ethnic Nationalism in a Transnational World”, Princeton Univ Press, December 1995 5. Untrue. You don’t give Greeks Macedonians the right to declare themselves as Macedonians. You deny their identity by trying to usurp their very identity. Your government recognition of “Republic of China” while disingenuously lamenting how your right is absolute. 6. It is true there are extremist nationalist in Greece. Our government is trying to deal with them. Unfortunately in FYROM you have elected them into government (VMRO) 7. German Americans don’t attempt to claim to be “ethnic Apaches” because they live in land of Apaches. Even your geographic location argument is flawed. You have confused modern place names with ancient. The kingdom of Macedonia is located essentially entirely in Greece. FYROM was named Paeonia in antiquity. Jews care to preserve Hebrew. Germans care to prserve English. Rather odd that the former Yugoslavians would be hostile to the Greek identity, language and culture of their own claimed ancestors. 8. FYROM does not recognize Macedonian Greeks. It attempts to usurp their identity (while their apologists look the other way). Until our identity is respected and protected we will return in like. 9. Again you have missed the irony that you say SLAVIC names were changed to Greek. Ancient Maceddonians preferred Greek names not Slavic ones. Rather odd you are hostile to the original Macedonian names yet now claim to be descendants of ancient Macedonians? Furthermore you need to remember that Greek changed names from Turkish not Slavic…. much like you changed your capital’s name from Turkish Uskub to Skopje. As for Ottoman records, it is you that needs to look at them more closely. No Ottomen census ever recorded the existence of “ethnic Macedonians” in Skopje. It did record Greeks and large numbers of ethnic Bulgarians through. What happened to all those Bulgarians and where did “ethnic Macedonians” all come from? (hint) “Prior to the creation of a Macedonian republic in 1944,most Macedonian immigrants viewed themselves as ethnically Bulgarian and often referred to themselves as Macedonian-Bulgarians or simply Bulgarians.While immigration records failed to list Macedonians as separate category,approximately three-quarters of those listed as Bulgarians were? from the regions of Kostur and Bitola in Macedonia.” – James R. Grossman, University of Chicago @Paolo Your analogy is not appropriate. There is a Macedonia USA that Greece does not object to because the Macedonians of the USA don’t attempt to claim themselves descendants of ancient Macedonians and 1/3 of Greece as occupied. I do not think Italians would have taken too kindly if part of the Yugoslavia had decided to rename themselves “Ethnic Romans” and suggested 1/3 of Italy was Italian occupied Rome. I do not think any country on earth would take kindly to this sort of behavior. The fact that some expect Greeks to, suggests severe racism towards Greeks. @Paolo Your analogy is not appropriate. There is a Macedonia USA that Greece does not object to because the Macedonians of the USA don’t attempt to claim themselves descendants of ancient Macedonians and 1/3 of Greece as occupied. I do not think Italians would have taken too kindly if part of the Yugoslavia had decided to rename themselves “Ethnic Romans” and suggested 1/3 of Italy was Italian occupied Rome. I do not think any country on earth would take kindly to this sort of behavior. The fact that some ignore FYROM’s identity change into “ancient Macedonians” and irredentism suggests severe racism towards Greeks. Editorial Reviews From Library Journal “One rarely encounters a scholarly book as disturbing as this provocative work, a study of ethnicity in the Greek province of Macedonia. It is so controversial that Cambridge University Press, fearing for the safety of its staff in Greece, refused to publish it. Having spent some time with villagers of the region, Karakasidou (anthropology, Queens Coll., CUNY) maintains that Macedonia is not exclusively Greek, as nationalists claim, but is instead a multiethnic, multicultural region experiencing the political and religious upheavals engulfing the rest of the Balkans. Karakasidou’s obsession with the truth has brought her death threats, apparently from outraged Greeks. Her powerfully written book is a resounding statement of human courage, reminding readers that there is no substitute for honesty and critical thought. This superb book is highly recommended for all large social science collections.?John Xanthopoulos, Art Inst. of Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Copyright 1997 Reed Business Information, Inc.” By Kevin J. Lindsay Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase This is a fascinating look at how the greek national identity grew in Macedonia. It is a complicated history that many Greeks seem to gloss over or deny. The Macedonia of the 1700’s was much more Slavic and Muslim than it was Greek. It wasn’t until nationalism(bulgarian to the north and greek to the south) and a weakening Ottoman rule that greek national identity entered the picture. Overall this book deals with the questions of national identity in an interesting way and traces the development of families in Macedonia and how Macedonia became greek. By Chris Nitsis Format:Paperback Excellent book accurately depicting the history of the region. The Macedonians in Aegean Macedonia (Northern Greece) have nearly lost their identity due to the consistent barrage of threats and abuse from the irrational, repressive Greek government. Cambridge Press showed its true colors when it buckled under the pressure of Greek terrorists who threatened violence if they published the book. The Greek goverment refuses to recognize Macedonians in that region as a distinct minority for fear that they will have to offer human rights to the 700,000 plus Slavic Macedonians in the region. This just shows how much Greece is “the Cradle of Democracy”. I was amaized to find (and read) book like MS Karakasidou’s.It is not so offten that book is writen without prejudice and with bearing the facts of the existence of the Macedonian minority in Republic of Greece. Not Slavophonic Greeks, but Slavic Macedonians, natives to the Northen Greece, the teritory of Makedonia. We can debate here, of how well,or indepth, of acurate the book is, nothing is perfect in this world, and if it is, it will be boring, so for me this book done its justice. And told the story of forgotten Nation (minority) who’s existance can not be forgotten and left on the mercy of the official Athens. The book its self reise lot of questions and in the same time give lots of answers, wich,person who for first time exopsed to the intricate history of the Balkans and specialy Macedonia, have more clearer picture of things. I can only aplaude to the honesty, determination and curage of MS Karakasidou, to publish this book. It is time for the world, to hear about the Macedonian struglle for recognition in Republic of Greece.And Greece’s extended eforts of assimilation, and above all the “Democracy” wich eluded this people from 1913 to this day. It is interesting to see what other write for reviews based solely on their OWN BIAS and a even mentioned that the author is of Turkish origin . . . NEWS FLASH the war has been over YEARS ago! This book is very much the truth. It is hard understand the views of those who are RACIST, BIASED, and want to have us take their opinion when their do not look from the outside. I have reseached this FOR YEARS, from INSIDE and OUT and I will have to agree with this book, though some parts I do not, very few. SO if your looking to learn more about this “territory” read this and more. And yes I AM Greek! Proud of it everyday as I walk the streets of Athens. But “Pride” here goes TOO far whith more of a definition of BIAS, RACISM . . . The book uncovers one of the biggest tragedies in history. The partition of Macedonia in 1913 between Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia. Greece acquired the largest part of it, Aeegee Macedonia. And since then it started aggresive policy of assimilation and supression of the Macedonians who live there. Hundreds of thousands of Macedonians have been expelled and forced to leave their homes and their homeland just because they wanted to preserve their language and culture and didn’t want to be Greeks. The region has been colonized with Greek emigrants from Turkey and other parts of the world, just to make it look more Greek. The names of the Macedonians who stayed there have been changed to Greek. Their churches taken away from them. They are not allowed to speak or write their own mother tongue. The list goes on and on. The same situation exists even today. The author has done a great job revealing all the dirty loundry of the Greek government re: Macedonia and the Macedonians. Definitely the book deserves to be read and kept as a valuable reference against the showinist and nationalistic propaganda of Greece against its own citizens. Deftly combining archival sources with evocative life histories, Anastasia Karakasidou brings welcome clarity to the contentious debate over ethnic identities and nationalist ideologies in Greek Macedonia. Her vivid and detailed account demonstrates that contrary to official rhetoric, the current people of Greek Macedonia ultimately derive from profoundly diverse ethnic and cultural backgrounds. Throughout the last century, a succession of regional and world conflicts, economic migrations, and shifting state formations has engendered an intricate pattern of population movements and refugee resettlements across the region. Unraveling the complex social, political, and economic processes through which these disparate peoples have become culturally amalgamated within an overarchingly Greek national identity, this book provides an important corrective to the Macedonian picture and an insightful analysis of the often volatile conjunction of ethnicities and nationalisms in the twentieth century. “Combining the thoughtful use of theory with a vivid historical ethnography, this is an important, courageous, and pioneering work which opens up the whole issue of nation-building in northern Greece.”–Mark Mazower, University of Sussex My dear Kosta Naumov, Most of your questions have already been answered by myself and by other participants so I wont repeat the same. However there are a few comments I have to make. The book you mentioned I have not read, but from reviews on it I have come to understand two very important points. 1. It is based almost entirely on accounts from ONE village, Assyros, 20 miles NW of Thesaloniki. 2. It is based mainly on ORAL MEMORY during the war periods. Im sorry, but such a narrow focused investigation on oral accounts just wont cut it. Another comment: So what if I mentioned only two instances where the word Macedonia was used by the Greeks before 1913? Isnt that enough? Especially when it is well documented and not by ORAL accounts. And I would appreciate a simple YES or NO from you from a comment I have made twice before but you seem to avoid. The question is: After all the documented evidence I provided you is the FYROMian goverment INTENTIONALLY LIEING when it says the the word MACEDONIA was forbidden to be used in Greece before 1991 with fear of prosecution? YES or NO? Please answer. Another comment, EYE WITNESSES from Prespa is not what you call evidence. I can say my 98 year old granmdma can snowboard blindfolded and backwards while doing a double flip. Is that credible evidence? Another comment, you said ‘Saying that you were first Macedonian and not Yugoslavian could have gotten you shot’. Then why was it called the Socialist Republic of MACEDONIA? Now our saying that the Serbs didnt let you be called Macedonians either? Another,you said ‘Greek liberation was arbitrarily stopped at the Yugoslavian border’. They did not stop arbitrarily, that is where they stopped because that is where the Greek villages stopped. (with the exception of Monastir which should have been taked by the Greeks) Another, you said ‘Most of the liberation movement in Macedonia was wiped out during the uprising in 1903. My theory is that the reason no one came to their aid was because they wanted a True Republic. You’re right, its just your THEORY, just like the ORAL accounts above. You didnt answer my previous question, why was the ethnos “MACEDONIAN” not mentioned in any treaty? why was is NEVER mentioned in any Ottoman record or census? another, you said ‘They were not traitors nor did they try to separate. Yes most were communist. But that is 20+ years behind us. Why can’t they return now? my answer, they were ALL communists otherwise they had no reason to FLEE. They where not exiled, they FLED.But I have to give you credit though on one point you brought up. In my opinion, yes, their children and grandchildren should be allowed to return, but not the original TRAITORS, they should be left to die whereever they may be. another,I dont know anything about this folksinger you mentioned, give me more info. Another, you said ‘Ancient Greeks were Christian?’ When did I ever say that? Are you making things up now? Another, you said ‘Why does Greece say there are no Minorities in Greece?’ Says who? Greece recognizes Muslim, Turkish, Armenian and Pomak minorities. If you are referring to the 4350 votes the Rainbow Party got in the elections as a minority then what can i say? There must be a Greek minority in FYROM which is not recognised by because there are a hell more than 4350 greeks living in FYROM Another, Slavic names changed to Greek. you’ve got to be kidding. all Greek toponyms that were changed to Slavic were just changed back to its original Greek names. For example Edessa, Florina, Kastoria, Serres, Thessaloniki were changed by Slavs to other names but to greeks and foreiner always maintained their original Greek names. @ Naumov, Macedonian Region was Hellenic since antiquity, worldwide history academia/archaeological sites is the best evidence. What transpired on the Macedonian soil after settlers/invaders arrived is a separate issue.\\\\ Macedonia being part of Hellas is carved on stone undisputed. Indians are the natives of North and South America, whatever transpired after the settlers/invaders arrived is a separate issue. Indian history is carved on stone, undisputed.\\\\ It is interesting phenom about who Macedonians are: 1.Serbs where saying that Macedonians in today’s R.Macedonia where Serbs-they where forced to learn Serbian language after Ottoman Empire (Turkey) was pushed out all the way until 1941. However they where civilized enough to recognize someones will, identity and dignity and have let it go, they freed themselves from the lie and have no problems with Macedonians in Macedonia or in Serbia to recognize and acknowledge them for who they where and are – Macedonians. 2.Albanians, after long years also forcing them to learn Albanian language and denying them to declare themselves in government official documents as Macedonians, changing the topography also of places, villages etc to one with Albanian language. Macedonian people are beginning to be recognized in Albania, even some of their villages are renamed with their Macedonian names. 3. Bulgaria after great tortures and pressures, murders of independent and educated Macedonian people (who even under the fear of death declared themselves as Macedonians), decades ago changed its policy and allowed Macedonian people to declare who they are and they did -several hundred of thousands even under the fear declare themselves Macedonians. They had on their personal ID card and passports nationality Macedonian, how ever with changed of the Bulgarian regime they where forced later to give up their documents and forcefully renamed as Bulgarians. Bulgaria recognizes the name R. Macedonia and have no problem with it, but have a problem with the Macedonian nation (or nationality-because have to recognize their over 1.3 million population as Macedonians and 15% occupation of Macedonia since 1913, when Macedonia and Macedonian population was split between: Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria and small part in Albania. 4.Greeks says that there is no Macedonians in Greece, but yet prohibit Macedonian population to declare themselves as Macedonians (beside the ethnic cleansing through genocide in 1948 in Northern Greece, that is 51% of Macedonia-Aegean Macedonia occupied in 1913 according to the Greeks signed documents, by government of Greece of that time and beginning the changing of the topography in Aegean Macedonia). That is not only problem of Greece though, the so called cradle of democracy Greece (the real name Fascist Greece, Manipulating Greece) does not recognize any minority ????? They do not exist or they fear that fake Greece would fall apart , the question is why fear. When you have democracy, when you know who leaves in Greece and how they fill, their is no need for restriction and prohibition, or maybe they fear the truth – because in their so call democracy, the only true is the fear of the truth. How about those, who they where ethnically cleansed from their homes 1948 who are not allowed to come home to their properties, homes, also changing the names on their ancestors graves. That is what Greece is afraid of; the truth, their genocide, ethnic cleansing against Macedonian people who are still alive but not allowed to go home. The point how big layers were and are is not even worth to waste time to explain. Whole world knows how they faked their way into the European union and euro currency and how much cost the whole European community and the world their big fake moral governance and financial proof (LIE). We must agree they do what they know best-LIE. But like world supporting their moral decay for too long on the peril of Macedonian nation, ended supporting their moral decay again which resulted in another schemes reaping hard working European and world community of their hard earned money. Europe shame on you, you got duped twice and their amorality became your amorality but at least it was not only Macedonian people who paid the price it had to catch up with you too. Now who The Macedonians are, they are who always were and are going to be MACEDONIANS. Their ancestors endured: all kind of occupations, denial, torture, genocide, oppression but remain Macedonians and are going to remain Macedonians. IT IS WORTH TO NOTICE THOUGH, ON EVERY PART WHAT IS NAMED MACEDONIA -LIVED AND LIVE MACEDONIANS AND WHERE RECOGNIZED IN THE PAST OR PRESENT OR SELF IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES AS MACEDONIANS EVEN AGAINST THE PERILS OF HARDSHIPS OF ALL SORTS, OPPRESSION, OCCUPATIONS, GENOCIDE, TORTURE, RESTRICTIONS, MURDER, KILLINGS BECAUSE OF WHO THEY WERE AND ARE-MACEDONIANS. THAT IS THE HISTORY. AS FAR AS THE DEMOCRACY AND WHO IS-WHAT IS, FORCE THE GOVERNMENTS OF: GREECE, BULGARIA, ALBANIA TO ALLOW THEIR POPULATION TO FREELY SELF IDENTIFY AS THEY REALLY FEEL, THE SAME WAY MACEDONIA ALLOWED THEIR POPULATION TO FREELY SELF DECLARE AS WHO THEY ARE AND THE WORLD WILL FIND THE TRUTH THAT MACEDONIA REGION AND MACEDONIAN PEOPLE WOULD BE ONE AND THE SAME, EVEN AFTER WHOLE CENTURY REPRESSIONS AND FORCEFUL MIGRATIONS. Just to add that in all 4 parts of Macedonia occupied, not only that Macedonians where not allowed to learn Macedonian language, while were at the same time forced to learn the languages of the occupying country, but also were not allowed to speak among themselves Macedonian language and endure hardships even jail time and penalties if somebody would tell on them for speaking Macedonian. Everybody speaks about conspiracy that they were supported by Tito, however the truth is hundreds of intellectuals died even in Macedonia from the hands of Macedonian communist regime and its supporters because they were arguing for better rights of Macedonians in Macedonia. So who are those supporters who helped Macedonian people when even in today’s word 21 century after 4 yrs of satisfying all regulations and recommendations of even European Parliament,that Macedonia has fulfilled all obligations and is ready to start the process to join European Union, still is not allowed to do so, just because of who they are. 5 yrs after they fulfilled all obligations according to NATO to be permanent member of NATO is not allowed to be one, just because of who they are. But are good to protect NATO camps on its missions. Almost 3 yrs after UN, World Court in Nederland, Hague, decided that Greece has no right to object membership of Macedonia in any association or body- European Union has no taste to swallow it but declare itself as democracy. The Agreement, the very document what Greece insisted on signing they fail to comply with and the world blindly accepts it- Europe accepts it to protect their almost lost money- what are credibility??? They cry democracy but neglect to leave by the same democracy – HIPPOCRATIC. Maybe because the same democracy, teachers told them come from Greece, so they have no mind of their own, if greece calls it democracy-must be a democracy. The next they will learn or maybe they already learned is how to be a gay I forgot they already are gays, perversion of the mind turned them to sodomy, but they don’t know that yet. As far as Sekerinska one can assume that fear of somebody catching up with their crimes makes whole sdsm so paranoid that they will sell not only their mothers and fathers but even their own children just somebody to support them from abroad. That I understand, but I do not understand who supports them in Macedonia and why ????? After all of this, come on, for 14 yrs they could not find solution for nothing, only to oblige- force the hand of Macedonia to talk about something what nobody talks about- changing your name. Wake up Macedonians, you are just money in the eyes of sdsm leadership. Stop covering up for their crimes, that is the reason why they do not trust you to lead but they tell you to fallow them even at your own cost. To entatiki: Thank you very much for the opportunity and your very proof of just what I stated above. If any smart person with little logic would scan through the years when this organizations have been formed it is obvious many years later after occupation of Aegean Part of Macedonia or 1913(and that is not my ignorance or lie, but to the contrary to so called Greek Macedonians as you try to call them Hellenes, which is hysterical Greeks propaganda trying to divert the truth and once again to deceive the world that Macedonians were and need to be Greeks, despite the fact that they are Macedonians), your own government document has many agreements and governmental documents stating and dealing with the issue of how to act and what measure to take with the people and new occupied territory as they say in their legal documents ever since 1913 until today. Neglecting this is only your ignorance or profaning lie and total dishonesty first with yourself, what you are trying to serve the world. And where are this so called slavobulgarians came from, when in Bulgaria itself and interesting enough after all the denial and repressions against Macedonian populations for 3 generations (same as in Greece),self declared Macedonian nationality population at first opportunity, besides the risk in sixties declared and possessed legal document in Bulgaria, issued by Bulgarian government that they are Macedonians and to the number of several hundred thousands. Later somebody realized that maybe they have not succeeded in destroying who they where and soon the rest of Macedonians will fallow and self declare as Macedonians,the Bulgarian government voided and forced them to call themselves Bulgarians, as they were and are forced in the 21 century in Greece. Where is democracy, just let every declare as who they are. It is unthinkable that you may think that somehow that will prevail sooner or later you will be forced to do so. European Union international community screwed up so many times and even now. How is it possible that 1,5 year to few years old who does not know how even to speak can be able to identify (beside the fact that when having all sex parts of one sex, but to declare or identify that belongs to a different/opposite sex) and be accepted as that, but grown people not be given rights after a century (5 generations)to allow to self declare themselves. The name dispute can be easily solved. I am who I am, The Macedonian, not who you say or want me to be. Let all who have legal proof about the place of birth in the region, a total legal acceptance to self declare themselves and we will see who and what the region of Macedonia belonged and to who belongs -to The Macedonians. If you are sure about that, and all Greeks who say the truth is on their side, why do you not ask your own government to change the discriminatory laws and accept all who where citizens of Greece to go to their land and be who they are. What kind of democracy is that, in Macedonia everybody is able to go to their own school of choosing and is provided for. Why fear, who do you fear, yourselves, not sure of who you are and afraid when given rights you maybe can make some mistake and declare yourselves Macedonians or something else – maybe of who you are, but not Greeks. Why so paranoia, you are not sure if your genocide against Macedonians have succeeded yet? It is self explanatory to any human being, for which you have to work to achieve yet. As far as history it is all known fact as you say from the Greek historians that all generals of the Kingdom of Macedonia where Macedonians – not Greek. There are many German, French, English and American historians who provide the logic explanation that Macedonians and Greeks were not the same and are not the same. However Macedonians even though called barbarians from the Hellenic people then have found room and allow and help them to avenge themselves against Persians, and are ready to cooperate even today based on principles of humanity, democracy. Greeks created the country long before the Macedonians get their independence, if they where so proud of their Macedonian heritage why they did not choose the name Macedonia after all Greece never existed before but Macedonian Kingdom was and is the greatest Kingdom until today. One can only conclude according by your own actions that you have interest to prevent Macedonians to claim their heritage just by claiming that you where part of that which is true. You where defeated than and you will be defeated in the future. There is only one thing fear and phobia from Macedonians than and now, so that is the reason why desperately you are trying to deceive the world to help you to rename the Macedonians. Even your government stated to the international community that if given Macedonians the right to self declare you are afraid they will try to free themselves from over the century Greek occupation. As far as your claims over Macedonia one more fact when Macedonia and Macedonian people under Turkish occupations fought Turkish Ottoman Empire fought with the slogan and the picture of those heroes confirms that slogans “Macedonia for Macedonians”, “Liberty for Macedonia or death” that was before any dates before and the uprising in 1903 well before your new established organizations, with attempt to create a fake history. I am sorry but in the interest of time I will not waste my time to debate further if you are democracy if you want the truth after all let everybody in your country declare themselves as they know and fill they are, including slavobulgarians as you say and let the fact be known that is democracy. That kind of democracy Macedonia has when will be able Greece to achieve. Stop leaving in fear we don’t care for Greeks we only want to be who we are even though after centuries of occupation , repressions, genocide,forced migrations, all hardships, faking the history WITHOUT ANY SUCCESS WE ARE MACEDONIANS AND WILL BE A MACEDONIANS. Please free yourselves from the fear and Macedonian paranoia, we are friendly people after all despite your crazy politics we visit you every summer at our Aegean Sea. With respect. TO THE SLAVIC POPULATION WHO CLAIM TO BE MACEDONIAN. HISTORIANS AND ORDINARY PEOPLE WRITE HISTORY ACCORDING TO THEIR VIEWS, HEARSAY, DESIRES ETC. HOWEVER, WRITING HISTORY ALONE IS NOT ACCEPTABLE IN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WITHOUT CULTURAL HERITAGE such as TANGIBLE, INTANGIBLE AND NATURAL. Cultural Heritage which includes TANGIBLE CULTURE (such as buildings, monuments, landscapes, books, works of art, and artifacts)and INTANGIBLE CULTURE (such as folklore, traditions, language, and knowledge), and NATURAL CULTURE (including culturally significant landscapes, and biodiversity). GREECE COVERS ALL OF THE ABOVE. P.S. THERE IS NO ROOM FOR DISPUTE AMONG THE INDIGENOUS PEOPLE OF MACEDONIA WHO ARE HELLENES AND THE VARIOUS SETTLERS, WHO SETTLED ON HELLENIC SOIL. Amazing how my Greek friends are 100% convinced that we in the Republic of Macedonia have been brainwashed by Tito, by VMRO, …yet they never doubt there own governments accounts of history. The same government that had policies of “Forced” assimilation, “Forced” Hellenization, “Forced” population exchange…. In other words a policy of making Greece a “Pure” state where everyone is Greek and everyone “ONLY” speaks Greek. Be it in official business or at home. Otherwise you end up in jail. In the Republic of Macedonia present or during the days of Yugoslavia no such policy ever took place. Every ethnic group is/was allowed to identify themselves as such. Hence you can walk on the streets of Skopje, it’s capital, and hear a multitude of languages. Albanian, Roma, Turkish,…. In the skyline you can see as many Churches as Masques. Albanian flags are flying wherever ethnic Albanians choose to fly them. Ethnic Albanians celebrate Albanian national holidays in the center of Skopje. Schools are named after Albanian heroes. Our Defense Minister in the present Government is ethnic Albanian. There others. I point him out because he was a commander in the Albanian UCK/KLA a group that was responsible for some horrific acts during the short war in 2001. However once peace agreement was reached and we settled our differences we moved on. Greece is still using the civil war of 1948 to punish those who participated in it because they were on the wrong side of who won. Not only those that participated, but also their offspring. Majority of those that participated are no longer with us. However even their children are not allowed to return to return to Greece. Never mind claim property that rightfully belongs to them. One last point, under the Ottomans those who changed their name and/or religion received certain benefits in the form of property and additional rights. For five centuries the Slavic people in Macedonia refused to change wither their names or language. For 5 centuries they paid for that in blood, sweat, and tears. Only to have the Greek Government change both language and names at the barrel of a gun. Imagine 60, 70, 80 year old men and women having to now use a different name. Imagine them having to learn a new language. Even for use in their own house, village, …! All in the name of “We are giving your True Name and Language back!. Because you are Greek. So let’s see this logic. If you are Slavic and happen to fall on the Greek side of the border after the division of Macedonia in 1913 YOU ARE TRUE GREEK. A MACEDONIAN! However, if you are Slavic and happen to fall on the other side of that border, even if you were 1-2 km away as I was, you are Slavo-Speaking Bulgarian. ARE YOU KIDDING ME! Does that make sense to anyone? So tell me. Who is more likely to have been brainwashed? NAUMOV HISTORICAL CONCRETE FACTS ARE NOT CONSIDERED BRAINWASHING. REFER TO TANGIBLE CULTURE AND INTANGIBLE CULTURE ABOVE, INDICATION AS TO WHO WERE THE ABORINGAL PEOPLE OF MACEDONIA. What transpired (wars) on Macedonian soil between the Aboriginal people and the Settlers is a separate issue. Are the Settlers/Immigrants of North and South America same as the Indians??? History is science, writing it alone has no merit in the educational institutions unless it is supported by Tangible and Intangible Evidence. Each race still maintains its language, culture, folklore, names, heroes, etc. regardless of mixed marriages. I read about the CULTURAL LEGACY, TANGIBLE AND INTANGIBLE from another poster. GOOGLE CULTURAL LEGACY = will provide the reader his/her roots. Tom : Ancient Macedonians self-identified as Greeks I am reading your writing and you make no sense at all, like all the greeks propaganda. You never made any sense to anything.Claiming that Alexander The King of Macedonia was greek is a nonsense. According to greek historians from that time like you call them to be they claim that Alexander The King of Macedonia fought against helenic tribes at that time and defeated them, before he went on to widen on The Kingdom of Macedonia. All generals almost all were Macedonians according to Greek writers and according to the German, French, American English and other historians, authors etc. who study the old writings. Alexander spoke helenic that is true, however when his life was at stake with Macedonians he spoke Macedonian, with his body guards -chosen people from his (tribe, people who can trust them with his life, when most danger would come to play he is making a choice to speak a language which others can not exactly understand and with a reason-because is not their own. That by itself tells more than anything. Other example Macedonian people in Pakistan, Afganistan who had no propaganda except greek who they try to presuade them to accept so call greek origin-have openly denied greeks efforts. They from generation to generation have installed in their new generations who they were and are and need to be 24 centuries for Gods sake, how you can question that or how you can deny that. You are talking about a leaving witnesses who had no connection with our people or historians, yet they did it on their own and are doing it even today. So sorry but Tito or communist organizations did not persuade them to say that, like you and other greeks are claiming to be the case with Macedonian nation. Your ancestors or you grandfathers and fathers ill motivated efforts and propaganda (like our others neighbors) did not succeeded. Macedonians are special people, like Alexander they are not looking to deny anybody their existence, they are not narcissist, fascist, they are inclusive. I could try to bring sense to your points by disproving them all but why waste time. Greeks are first layers to themselves and then to the whole world. They did it for centuries, after realizing that Europeans are dome enough to accept everything what they try to claim to be, they try to do it again and succeeded again, they duped them by deceiving them about their financial records. Its all over again if I can lie to you about one who I am not my whole life, then its easy to do it again. The prostitute knows how to prostitutes herself if she has done before there is no shame to do it again, layer once is layer again and again. Europeans paid heavy price for covering greek lies, finally caught up with them, they experienced first hand how corrupt greeks are, but this time they paid the price. You cannot trust the cheater, if he cheats on others you are next. But now from embarrassment and in attempt to try to recover some their loses, they are hold a hostage by corrupt greeks. One would wonder when would snap out of their embarrassment and recognize the lie and confess it and try to re-position themselves with the truth about Macedonia and Macedonians and true relations, what is most importantly who the greeks are not (what they claim to be). TO MAKE LONG STORY SHORT, CHANGE THE DISCRIMINATORY, OPPRESSIVE, REPRESSIVE LAWS IN GREECE (BULGARIA AND ALBANIA) AND LET EVERYBODY BE WHO THEY ARE AND LET EVERYBODY DECLARE THEMSELVES WHO THEY ARE AND SEE THE TRUE COLOR OF GREECE, JUST LIKE IN MACEDONIA AND THAN SPEAK, BUT FOR NOW YOU MAKE NO SENSE . THINKING THAT IF YOU YELL ENOUGH SOMEBODY MAY TRUST YOU IS OLD AND OUTDATED, PEOPLE ARE SMART THAT WHY 137 COUNTRIES RECOGNIZED MACEDONIA WITH THEIR REAL NAME MACEDONIA AND MACEDONIAN PEOPLE AS MACEDONIANS. THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO HAVE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS GREECE AND FEW MORE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN THE CLUB WHO ARE ASHAMED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THEY MADE MISTAKES IN SUPPORTING GREECE IN THEIR BAD POLICIES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME SHORT TIME. BUT THAT IS EVEN WORSE DEMOCRACY SELLERS ARE SPONSORING IN THEIR HOME EXACTLY WHAT THEY TRY TO OPPOSE EVERYWHERE ELSE. THEY COVER UP FOR THEIR SICK, CRIMINAL, EVIL,MURDER,MORAL DEPLETED,STEP BROTHER, AND THEY KNOW THAT, THEY ARE GUILTY BY ASSOCIATION. Dear Mike, I appreciate your point of views but I dont have any intentions of repeating and analyzing how wrong you are given the fact that the undisputed evivdence that FYROMians have nothing to do with Macedonia has been proved and presented over and over on this forum and elsewhere not to mention by world academia (non-Greek). I do however want to make just one comment. Yes, you are right, 137 countries have recognized you by your constitutional name, but when you bring this matter up in conversations don’t forget to mention that: 1. This is only for BILATERAL purposes and not for the international stage. NOT recognized by UN and other international organizations such as EU, NATO,IMF,WTO,World Bank,Council of Europe, IOC, OSCE, FIFA, UEFA, FIBA,CERN, EBU, FIDE just to mention a few. 2. NOT recognized by 56 countries (aside from the EU countries) 3. Not recognized by the ONE country where it really hurts, GREECE, given the undisputed fact that the name,heritage,history and land of MACEDONIA always WAS and IS GREEK. 4. It is a TEMPORARY agreement. Meaning that ALL 137 countries have AGREED that once a mutual name has been etablished, ALL 137 of these countries will abide to the new name. Thank you for your attention Entatiki in addition to your above information, I would like to add: -GREEK/HELLENIC CITY STATES, FOUGHT ONE ANOTHER FOR DOMINANCE AND POWER. -ALEXANDER THE GREAT FOUGHT, DEFEATED AND UNITED THE GREEK/HELLENIC CITY STATES INTO ONE. -ALEXANDER THE GREAT SPREAD HELLENISM WHEREVER HE WENT. SLAVS CAME TO THE BALKANS ONE THOUSAND YEARS AFTER THE DEATH OF ALEXANDER. SLAVS SETTLING ON MACEDONIAN SOIL STILL MAINTAIN THEIR SLAVIC LANGUAGE, CULTURE, ETC. WITH NO CONNECTION THE THE ANCIENTS. P.S. ANCIENT GREEKS/HELLENS LOOKED DOWN ON UNEDUCATED GREEKS AND CONSIDERED THEM BARBARIC/AGRAMATOI. This trait is observed even to this day. The only thing Modern Greece has common with Ancient Greece is language. The rest of the culture is pretty much the same throughout the Balkan States, especially the ones that were under the Ottoman Empire and are Christian Orthodox. 99% of customs in Greece, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Serbia are the same. The use of the Slavonic language in Macedonia is the case of the Chicken and Egg. We really don’t know which came first. The language or the people. In other words, even though I speak a Slavic language you can’t tell me I am genetically Russian or genetically related to Ancient Macedonians or German for that matter. In less than 300 years hardly anyone in the USA can trace their exact genetic background. Maybe as far as third generation. After that no one knows. Macedonia, The Balkans have been at the crossroads between east and west for 2000+ years. I seriously doubt anyone of us is pure anything. Here you can find people of all hair color, skin pigment, height and physical features. So to argue who Macedonia belongs to based on its current population is ridiculous. The point is this land has been called Macedonia long before there was Greece. After all, in ancient times there were no nations. Greece established a nation in the 19th century. Macedonia in the 20th. USA in the 18th. Germany, Austria, …… in the 20th century. We the people that live on this Geographical locations identify ourselves as Macedonians. We would like for our nation to be called Macedonia. Since there is no other nation in the world called Macedonia, we have the right to use that name. Greece has Greek Macedonia. Let them identify themselves with Ancient Macedonia. We really do not care. Typical Greek Attitude! :-/ Kosta Naumov, At least you are someone who admits it “…I speak a Slavic language you can’t tell me I am genetically Russian or genetically related to Ancient Macedonians” Thank you for admitting that FYROMians speak a Slavic language and that FYROMians are not genetically related to the ancient Macedonians. A majority in FYROM beg to differ. You also said: “We the people that live on this Geographical location identify ourselves as Macedonians”. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it agian. FYROM’s geographical location is ONLY 10% Macedonia and 90% Dardania-Paeonia. Neither Alexander nor Phillip nor ANY prominent Macedonian ever set foot in Skopije, and yet to make Skopje the capital of a country with the stolen name “Macedonia” and also it seem as if Skopje was the capital of ancient Macedonia with the circus of monuments you are erecting. Example, Turkey has 10% of its country in Europe, so lets call our country EUROPE.I know Im talking about a continent here but for comparative purposes you get the picture (I hope) entatiki, you do know how to use google don’t you? btw, in ancient times there were no such things as nations, capitols, ….! Hope you get the picture \U0001f609 below! I did not say we were not genetically related to Ancient Macedonians. I said None of US know exactly. That includes 99% of the present day Greek population! “The cultural links of prehistoric Macedonia were mainly with Greece and Anatolia. A people of unknown ethnic origins who called themselves Macedonians are known from about 700 bc, when they pushed eastward from their home on the Haliacmon (Aliákmon) River under the leadership of King Perdiccas I and his successors. By the 5th century bc the Macedonians had adopted the Greek language and had forged a unified kingdom. Athenian control of the coastal regions forced Macedonian rulers to concentrate on bringing the uplands and plains of Macedonia under their sway—a task finally achieved by their king Amyntas III (reigned c. 393–370/369).” However, the language is not 100% proven as you can read below: ” For example, there is evidence that Greeks were unable to understand people who were makedonizein, “speaking Macedonian”. The Macedonian king Alexander the Great was not understood by the Greeks when he shouted an order in his native tongue and the Greek commander Eumenes needed a translator to address the soldiers of the Macedonian phalanx. The Greek orators Thrasymachus of Chalcedon and Demosthenes of Athens called Macedonian kings like Archelaus and Philip II barbarians, which prima facie means that they did not speak Greek. Now this happens in polemical contexts and is certainly exaggerated, but the statements need to refer to some kind of linguistic reality.” “In the nineteenth century, the power of the Ottoman empire on the Balkan peninsula was in decline and new kingdoms like Serbia, Greece, and Bulgaria, came into being. They all claimed the area that was known as Macedonia, which was usually described as inhabited by Bulgarians, although there were local nationalists who stressed that the Macedonians were an independent nation. After the Balkan Wars (1912-1914), the country was carved up between the three states and the Serbian and Greek authorities launched harsh policies to change the ethnic composition of the land they had conquered. For example, the “Slavophone Greeks” of Thessalonica were restricted in their cultural activities, sometimes forced to resettle, and replaced by Greeks who had been forced to leave their ancestral towns in the west of Turkey.” Dear Kosta Naumov, Thank you for replying, four times even! But be careful what you write because it is very easy to refute you. So lets look at our replies: 1. So just to get this straight, you are saying that the citizens of FYROM , in their majority, do NOT speak a Slavic language??? And even if you want to call it “Macedonian” you are saying it is not derived from the Slavic language tree??? Isnt it FYROM that claims that there are SLAVOPHONES in Greece??? 2.You said “Macedonians are known from about 700 bc, when they pushed eastward from their home on the Haliacmon (Aliákmon) River under the leadership of King Perdiccas I” Haven’t you ever read Herotodus: “Now that the descendants of Perdiccas are Greek as they themselves say and I myself chance to know” (Histories 5.22.1) 3.You presented 4 maps, lets look at them one by one: The first map is entitled: ‘Greece except Pelopponese’. The reason it stays except Pelopponese is because the Pelopponese is NOT shown, however MACEDONIA IS shown, thus provong thru this map that it is considered part of Greece. The second map shows MACEDONIA, and south of it shows THESSALY, and west of it EPIRUS. The word GREECE is not mentioned, why? Because all these three entities are PART OF IT. The third and fourth maps are NOT RELIABLE because they are not printed from independent sources or map makers but by pseudoethnic “Macedonians” as noticed by the makers “Macedonian colony of St.Petersberg” 4. Your last post about the Slavic population in Greece is WITHOUT any reference or source as to where you found it of copy pasted it from, therrfore UNRELIABLE. Thanks for your support \U0001f642 1. I never said Macedonians do not speak Slavic. We most certainly do as did the majority of the population of Greek Macedonia in 1913! You need to read my posts more carefully. 2.I didn’t say that. Follow the link to see who said it. LIVIUS Articles on Ancient History 3. All maps show when and where they were published. 4.Again, follow the link to see who said that! they also said this “Ancient Macedonia Macedonia: ancient landscape and state, situated in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and northern Greece, best known because its king Alexander the Great (336-323) conquered the Persian Empire and inaugurated a new period in Greek history. The first part of this article can be found here.” “The study of ancient Macedonia is bedeviled by the Macedonian question. Scholars from modern Greece and the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia have made bold statements on the nature of ancient Macedonia, which in their more extreme variants can be summarized as “the ancient Macedonians spoke a Slavic language” and “Macedonia has been Greek for at least 3,000 years”. Unfortunately, politicians in both nations argue (with a textbook example of a non sequitur) that the borders of the past should also be those of the present. Of course, modern politics can not be based on ancient history. Scholars who allow themselves to be used for political purposes, overestimate the importance of their field of study. They also force others to digress longer and more often than they like on the relation between ancient Macedonia, the Slavs, and Greece, which must therefore be the leitmotiv of this article too. Those interested in the origin of the debate, can read the appendix.” Historians can write history as they personally view it, and those historians close to Macedonian question write it according to their desires and purposes. HOWEVER, written history is not legitimate unless it is accompanied by archaeology in order to complete the circle. The country that can supply written facts and archaeological facts resembling one another, is the legit owner. Archaeological facts, are archaeolgical sites, monuments, coins, transcripts, inscriptions, language, culture, etc. etc. You must be Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017. Efficacité et Transparence des Acteurs Européens 1999-2017.Productionise
In order for the scraper to be more scalable, there are several changes to that needs to be put in place.
First of all, we need to research a method to only search for recent text on text that has not been extracted. The scraper currently takes a few hours to execute and the duration will continue to increase over time. Thus, it is desirable to reduce the run time and redudancy of the scraper.
Secondly, the Bloomberg data does not start until the end of 2011. Further, the number of articles remain low prior to early 2012. This is an indication of a problem with the scraper unable to trace back to articles prior to 2011. This article is from 2004 and has the exact same link structure as one in recent year was not scrapped. Further investigation is required and improvements to the scraper is required. In addition to the incompleteness of the source, pesky conditions on site usage block the spiders too often.
List of TODOs
P1:
- Investigate the Bloomberg scraper and identify the problem
- Scrap data for Bloomberg prior to 2012.
- Deal with Bloomberg’s TOC violation
P3:
- Skip same article from different news section.